◆ Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11: China sent a record number of warplanes across a U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new president of the archipelago mulls a trip that may include a stop in America ◆ Financial Times, 2024-7-10: Experts warn that Taiwan remains woefully underprepared for war.◆ New York Times, 2024-7-3 : China seized Taiwanese Boat (Fishing illegally) - a move could add to tensions between Beijing and President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan. ◆ Nikkei Asia , 2024-7-2: China pressures Taiwan's Lai (Ching-te) with most jet fighters in nearly 2 years ◆ Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is pursuing “separation” from China in “incremental” fashion. ◆ The Atlantic Council, 2024-6-27: It is more challenging for Taiwan to win that level of support than it is for Ukraine, given Taiwan's contested political status and China's relentless international campaign against it. Taiwan worries less about a sudden Chinese military invasion than about slow strangulation... Foreign Affairs writes that Taiwan's major military investments are not well aligned with the insidious nature of the gray-zone threat. ◆ Daily Express, 2024-6-23 : In a move that escalates already high tensions, China has issued a dire warning to Taiwan independence advocates, threatening them with the death penalty. ◆ CNN, 2024-6-22 : China could take Taiwan without even needing to invade ── Quarantine ── will make it far harder for the United States and other like-minded democracies to counter ◆ Financial Times, 2024-6-16 : China's President Xi Jinping told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan. The White House did not comment. ◆ New York Times, 2024-6-17 : ... the United States would step in if China truly threatened to invade. But that belief is not universal among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical about American dedication and intent...Not all Taiwanese people welcome the tightening embrace (strategic integration) between Taiwan and the U.S. ◆ The Australian, 2024-6-4: It depends - Biden wavers on Taiwan defence◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2: The U.S. is getting China's calculations wrong - assumes - China won't invade unless provoked, and that China still needs to get its military built to attack. But China is determined to subvert and manipulate the island's politics ◆ FoxNews, 2024-5-28: House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose" if China invaded Taiwan." ◆ New York Times, 2024-5-27: I just think our defense industrial base is overloaded right now, and it cannot handle this amount of conflict in the world.”, McCaul said ◆ Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president, the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy ◆ Reuters, 2024-5-15: China's military has sailed and flown closer to Taiwan in recent weeks than it has before ◆ Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15: China said it would sanction five Taiwanese political commentators and roll out a law to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-5-10: hard to believe that any fight with the United States over Taiwan would not include preemptive or retaliatory strikes against our military facilities in Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and perhaps even the U.S. mainland...key U.S. supply chains, including those related to national security, are dependent on China, giving Beijing the ability to strangle America possibly. ◆ The Telegraph, 2024-5-11: Just recently Beijing manoeuvred 12 ships to within four nautical miles of Taiwan. The United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has a clear list on what you can do inside someone else's territorial waters (less than 12 nautical miles off the coast)
◆
Newsweek, 2024-5-8:
Taiwan must embrace a more dynamic
defensive strategy that can independently deter, or at least stall, Beijing.
◆
ABC News, 2024-5-1:
The US is in a Cold War with China over
Taiwan.
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-30:
Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports
as global demand for electronics picks up, benefiting the producer of high-end
chips.
The research firm projects Taiwan's economic growth at 5.5% this year, well
above consensus views.
◆
TIME, 2024-5-1: America’s Asian allies, like its European ones, may be on their own
under Trump. Trump declines to say whether he
would come to Taiwan's defense.
◆
Daily Express (UK), 2024-4-27:
China is
gearing up to strike Taiwan and could hit the self-governed territory in just a
few months as Beijing and the West lock horns
◆
Associated Press, The Hill, 2024-4-24:
China blasts US military aid to Taiwan, saying the island is entering a
‘dangerous situation’◆
SUN (UK), 2024-4-24:
China building army in space – tripling
number of spy satellites amid Taiwan invasion fears
◆
Economist, 2024-4-18:
China is talking to Taiwan's next leader, just not directly
...
being granted an audience with Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou
(Taiwan's former president
) wrote that Mr Xi
had “extended an olive branch to us”. Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's
next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”.◆
Reuters, 2024-4-19:
Taiwan says new Chinese air routes threaten Taiwanese islands' flight safety
◆
Daily Express, 2024-4-19:
China on brink of Taiwan invasion as NATO braces for World War 3
◆
Asia Nikkei, 2024-4-16:
NATO Defense College report:
Nato could become involved in a potential Taiwan conflict if
Chinese attack on Hawaii
◆
CNN, 2024-4-10:
It's the first time a former
president of Taiwan has been hosted by China's top
leader in Beijing since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT fled to Taipei in
1949.
◆ Asia Times, 2024-3-27 : the government has failed to make military service a viable career choice - Military service is a hard life with low pay, bad housing and no GI-Bill sort of benefits... simply isn't respected in traditional Chinese society...Taiwan's “reserve force” is shambolic and that's being charitable. There is no “territorial” or militia force, either. Taiwan also lacks a civil defense scheme. ◆ New York Times, 2024-3-24 : Two Chinese survivors told Chinese media that the Taiwanese vessel collided with them, while the Taiwanese Coast Guard said the two boats “made contact” at times during the chase. Chinese officials are now waiting for a report from Taiwanese investigators into the death incident; tensions could climb if Beijing disputes their conclusions ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-3-22: Adm. John Aquilino, U.S. Navy commander and head of the Indo-Pacific forces, told the House Armed Services Committee that America is steadily less prepared for a war with China that now appears to be right around the corner. ◆ AFP, The Telegraph, 2024-3-24 : US military officials have warned that China could invade Taiwan by 2027 ◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21: Taipei has not made the necessary preparations. Taiwan's navy continues to prioritize small numbers of large surface combatants over acquiring the “large number of small things,”...◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-18 : Simulations of an all-out Chinese invasion run by American think tanks assume most of the Taiwanese air force or navy would be quickly destroyed by Chinese missile strikes, but Ukraine (short of most powerful big-ticket weapons) had trouble last year breaking through fortified positions established by Russian troops. The U.S. pressure didn't mean Taipei stopped buying big-ticket items. “The asymmetrical approach would put the whole of Taiwan into a meat grinder", Taiwan's former official says ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-3-22: Adm. John Aquilino, U.S. Navy commander and head of the Indo-Pacific forces, told the House Armed Services Committee that America is steadily less prepared for a war with China that now appears to be right around the corner.◆ Foreign Policy, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy through highly vulnerable maritime shipping routes. Any quarantine, blockade, or invasion of the island by China would devastate its ability to sustain basic services and critical infrastructure—not to mention the factories that produce approximately 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Solutions are in short supply. ◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-3-14 : U.S. public support for Taiwan, which is as high as it has ever been according to polls, supports aiding Taiwan to defend itself against China in the event of an attack, but consistently opposes any direct military intervention by the United States.
◆
Daily Express, 2024-3-13:
Taiwan war with China given latest seal of approval by US with
new deadly weapon (the Link 16 comm.
system ) in a move set to escalate tensions between
Taiwan and
China
delivery.
Link 16 acts as the brain and nervous
system of Taiwan's military apparatus,
places control firmly in US hands.
◆
Daily Express,
2024-3-8:
China - with its military build-up,
hoarding of food, and military recruitment drives - is preparing for something
big;
A recent documentary aired in Mainland
China also added to expectations that a move on Taiwan is imminent.
Recent purges of top military brass might
be an attempt by CCP leader Xi Jinping to eliminate all opposition to invading
or blockading Taiwan in the near future.
Anyone who
thinks China would be deterred because of the economic impact of war ought to
remember Zero Covid and how political considerations outweighed economic
factors.
◆
United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5)
:
After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure.
China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional
conflict.
◆
EurAsian Times,
2024-3-5:
Admiral
Samuel Paparo, leading the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China
could soon use military drills to cover up an invasion of Taiwan. Thus, the
writing is on the wall.
◆ The Hill, 2024-3-5: In China's legislature, Premier Li's report had stronger language on Taiwan - Dropping the word “peace” combined with the phrase “resolutely opposing Taiwan independence,” is what signals a stronger stance ◆ Council on Foreign relations, 2024-2-27: Taiwanese society has grown increasingly skeptical of the United States, which has been enhancing its political relationship with Taiwan but without enhancing its international standing or offering it tangible economic benefits. the increased number of official visits to Taiwan has been perceived as largely symbolic ◆ Financial Times, 2024-2-23: Previous statements only pledged to ‘resolutely oppose’ Taiwan independence, but now China's Communist party toughens Taiwan rhetoric with call to ‘fight’ independence ◆ VOA, 2024-2-23: recent Chinese coast guard activities actions will likely become a "new normal" near Taiwan’s outlying islands. We can expect China to conduct similar operations near Kinmen and Matsu Islands ◆ Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry. So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. ◆ CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II. ◆
Financial Times, 2024-2-19:
China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist
boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen
just off the Chinese coast.
Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and
undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade
◆
DW, 2024-2-16:
the blockade would be a very special
threat for Taiwan... neither the conventional capability, nor asymmetric
capability, can be effective to deter or defend for this operation
◆
CSIS.org , 2024-2-13:
any conflict in the Taiwan
Strait would also quickly spread across the globe and into cyberspace and space.
There would also be real risk of a nuclear exchange.
◆
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,
2024-2-9:
Short of clearly committing to restraint
and offering some sort of arrangement that could make people on Taiwan better
off overall, CCP leaders are left only with the option to escalate confrontation
through harsher means
◆ Reuters, 2024-2-6: While Taiwan has installed anti-tank obstacles on some outlying islands facing China, the beaches around the capital remain apparently undefended. If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership◆ Reuters, 2024-1-31: American military logistics in the Pacific is one of the greatest U.S. vulnerabilities in any potential conflict over Taiwan. Our ability to deter conflict in the Western Pacific over the next five years is not close to where it needs to be ◆ The Hill, 2024-1-29: War with China would be an unmitigated strategic catastrophe ◆ Semafor, 2024-1-26: whether or not these investments (more than 1.6 million reserve personnel) would count for much in the case of a potential invasion by Beijing “remains to be seen,”...As Taiwan continues to adjust to shifting demographics – such as its aging population and declining male-to-female ratio – the current one-year conscription policy for men may need lengthening further. ◆ Semafor, 2024-1-24: according to Foreign Policy, Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party lacks many military commanders who advocate asymmetrical warfare and a “porcupine strategy:” deterring Beijing with a smaller stockpile of more effective weapons. Security officials within the party have historically called for reinforcing the island with big tanks, submarines, and fighter jets that “Washington thinks Taiwan doesn't need”◆ National Interest 2024-1-24: the possibility of Washington sacrificing Taiwan in a deal with China that would benefit the United States financially would rise significantly under another Trump administration. Taiwan's unfortunate fate is that it will always be vulnerable to a sellout by the United States. This danger may be increasing. ◆ The Hill, 2024-1-23: According to the CSIS survey, 68 percent of U.S. experts said a Taiwan Strait crisis was likely or very likely in 2024, compared to 58 percent of Taiwanese experts. About three-quarters of U.S. experts and two-thirds of Taiwanese experts said ongoing efforts to stabilize U.S.-China ties would not stave such a crisis. ◆ AFP, 2024-1-14: Beijing could apply an economic squeeze on Taiwan, which would "set the terms of interaction for the next four years of cross-strait relations". President-elect Lai's party lose its majority - Any legislation regarding cross-strait relations would be difficult to pass ◆ NBC, 2024-1-9: China has framed the (Taiwan) election as “a choice between war and peace.”; Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, described Taiwan's security situation as “urgent but not immediate.”◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: According to the Economist, China has directly warned the U.S. of the consequences of a Lai victory, raising tensions in the region. In the event of a Lai victory, large-scale demonstrations from the Chinese military and other belligerent moves are expected. The prospect of Taiwan severing ties with a China ... possibly leading him to warm to direct military action. ◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. much of Taiwan's defense budget is locked into capabilities that are neither survivable nor potent.” Taipei is relying on the U.S. Air Force and Navy to ride to the rescue. ◆ Telegraph, 2024-1-5: Super aircraft carrier Fujian is nearly ready for a China-Taiwan war - expect US and allied forces to make sinking Fujian a top priority. ◆ Telegraph, 2024-1-3:The final days of presidential election campaigning will probably result in intensifying clashes over which party can best handle relations with China.◆ CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan.
◆ Politico, 2023-12-23: The guessing game of how likely an intervention — or even invasion — by China is helps explain the nervy tenor of this race (presidential election). ◆ New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Biden often talks tough, but shies from any action he fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the hands of America's adversaries. ◆ NBC Universal, 2023-12-21: War of Words / Experts say China is pushing influence campaign as Taiwan preps for Presidential Election. majority of voters don't favor closer ties to China or to the US, instead, they want to preserve the status quo with Taiwan ◆ Economist, 2023-12-13: There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future. Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world. ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections ◆ Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict... ◆ Defense News, 2023-12-5:The real danger is that Chinese leaders calculate a window exists for them to achieve a fait accompli before the United States has sufficient combat power in the region...Unfortunately, the logistics problem defies simple solution for the US... ◆ Fox News, 2023-12-3: Joint Chiefs chairman says 'we all should be' worried about China possibly invading Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-11-30: Americans now want the U.S. to focus its military efforts in the Middle East over East Asia, a month into the Israel-Hamas war; when it comes to the overall military capability, the United States no longer has outright superiority, but the American people clearly have not internalized that. ◆ The Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-2: Taiwan is about to vote against China. War is coming. The time for doing business with China is finished. ◆ The Market Oracle (UK), 2023-11-28: Taiwan's elections loom just a few weeks away. Continued militarization would undermine past economic success. Taiwan is at its ultimate crossroads. Almost every second Taiwanese would prefer a less confrontational stance and greater focus on domestic economy.
◆ The Diplomat, 2023-12-1: the KMT has a history of opposition against asymmetric strategies. Most recently, KMT legislators attempted to block new capabilities ranging from the purchase of Harpoons to Javelins and Stingers. Jaw (vice-president candidate) is an avowed opponent of the 12-month conscription, calling it a provocation to Beijing. ◆ WSWS.org, 2023-11-29: low economic growth rates, rising unemployment and social distress will also have a marked impact (on presidential election). Taiwan entered recession in the first quarter of 2023 as GDP contracted by 3.02 percent compared to the same period last year. The economy is expected to grow by just 1.61 percent for the year. Real estate speculation is fuelling a growing housing crisis. While official unemployment figures remain relatively low overall, youth unemployment for those between 20 and 24 is more than 11 percent. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-11-26: Taiwan draws clear US-versus-China battle lines in key election ; an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. There are a substantial amount of voters who want a change ◆ Reuters, 2023-11-24: China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud ◆ Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi: 'peace is all well and good, but at some point we need to move toward resolution more generally' ◆ Newsweek, 2023-11-21: an overwhelming majority (7/10) of people in Taiwan do not believe the United States is trustworthy, according to a new poll released on Monday. Most, however, were convinced by America's commitment to the island's safety. ◆ Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the Dpp's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait ◆ The WEEK, 2023-11-13: Historically, Taiwan has been an "easy target for Chinese spies", It is "not very strict about punishing espionage"...China has "penetrated many parts of the Taiwanese government over the decades", said The New York Times ◆ BBC, 2023-11-9: If Taiwan is not controlling sensitive and secret information very well… You should expect any competent foreign intelligence service to get access to it.
◆ BBC, 2023-11-6: in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-29: the United States must also provide credible assurances to Beijing that as long as China refrains from using force against Taiwan, Washington will not support the island's independence nor return to its past defense treaty with Taipei. Assurances like these can help to avoid war. ◆ Economist, 2023-10-26: 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-26: Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says ◆ SCMP, 2023-10-21: Taiwanese defence minister admitted it would be "impossible" for the island's military to block a saturation attack. The inadequate training given to Taiwanese reservists after discharge has been known for some time, drawing criticism from the US, ...Taiwan could also learn from Israel about maintaining a lasting public enthusiasm to fend off the enemy ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence. If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan, it will set a precedent in which Chinese leaders kill and destroy to achieve their goals. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-16: The U.S. has known since no later than 2012——that Chinese surface-to-surface (STS) missiles can destroy U.S. aircraft carriers, or any other military asset that isn't submerged; Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption. A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order. ◆ VOA News, 2023-10-13: Expert says : for Taiwan, the most important thing is whether the intelligence it has gathered can help Taipei prepare for potential military conflicts, Taiwan should also assess whether it can promptly mobilize its forces and whether its forces can react to sudden attacks swiftly... there's a question about whether Taiwan can obtain enough equipment for all of them ◆ Telegraph, 2023-10-13: If China attempts a blockade of Taiwan, Taiwanese forces and their American allies will have to break the blockade – or risk losing the island democracy to mainland...It’s worth noting the United States hasn’t directly intervened in the Chinese blockade of a Philippine outpost ◆ Express (UK), 2023-10-13: A China-Taiwan war could break out unless the war in Israel is put to an end ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-10-12: Taiwan is closely watching the Hamas-Israel war for lessons as it faces intimidation from China ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications ◆ AP, 2023-10-3: a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity. ◆ Reuters, 2023-9-28: Taiwan says" it's not likely for them (China) to do anything major to threaten Taiwan or anything so visible that the Taiwanese people understand that they are trying to intervene in our election" ◆ Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion, or should move towards building ties with China. The opposition Kuomintang has called the vote a choice between “war and peace”, implying that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s hostility towards China will provoke it to attack. China...narratives that portray America, not China, as the island's biggest threat. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-9-26: Americans are increasingly concerned over tensions between China and Taiwan, with more than 80% reporting the problem is "somewhat" or "very serious" for the U.S.
◆ The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China has plans to mobilize hundreds or thousands of civilian merchant ships, fishing boats, Coast Guard vessels, and anything else capable of ferrying infantry units across the South China Sea, according to a paper by Lonnie Henley,...In such volumes it would be impossible for even an advanced military to defeat them all ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-9-21: China is building a powerful military to beat America in a war over Taiwan; China is readying for war today. China's military has practiced deploying Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers
◆ The Hill, 2023-9-19: The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan and the rules-based international order ◆ 1945, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon); China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces ◆ Military, 2023-9-13: We lost the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing our frailties, Xi will persist in pressuring Taiwan to dissolve from within, while employing military provocations to test America's martial resolve ... By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan ◆ Daily Express, 2023-9-9: China has reached the "height of its power" which may prompt Beijing to launch an invasion of Taiwan, former National Security Advisor John Bolton exclusively told Daily Express US; the United States was not ready ... - something which Beijing would see as an “opportunity”◆ American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029. Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux. ◆ AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China. Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation. Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island. No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-30: Ramaswamy says after America’s rapid semiconductor renaissance, Taiwan can fend for itself. I am not going to send our sons and daughters to die over that conflict. ◆ Daily Express, 2023-8-27: China sparks major war fears as dozens of aircraft and vessels either crossed the median line of the sensitive Taiwan Strait or breached Taiwan's air defence identification zone in a major escalation. Former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Matt Shoemaker told Daily Express US the chances new military packages will repel an invasion are low. ◆ The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-8-22: China boasts record-high military recruitment, if military aid (Taiwan war) is needed, America's sagging recruitment numbers could be a problem.
◆ Daily Express, 2023-8-20: Taiwan under threat as China sends fighter jets and warships with nations on brink of war ◆ The Conversation, 2023-8-16: According to some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price (Ukraine is paying a heavy price in terms of lost lives and a shattered economy) to preserve its political autonomy.◆ New York Times, news brief 2023-8-14: A Taiwanese presidential contender (Lai Ching-te) walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. ◆ Daily Mail, 2023-8-18: China rehearses invasion of Taiwan with troops storming 'sea defences' in chilling wargames - while Beijing and Russia stage joint naval exercises in the Pacific. the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: For the most part, Taiwanese people seem to be at ease with their Chinese heritage. In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. ◆ The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action ◆ Washington Post, 2023-7-29: U.S. to provide up to $345 million in military aid to Taiwan; a defense analyst in Taiwan was skeptical of the aid package and pointed to “serious delays in recent years in the delivery of numerous U.S. arms sales” to Taiwan. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-7-29: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines have said they don't see an effort by China to seize Taiwan by force as imminent ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-7-24: China and Russia train together to sink US submarines. the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-23: Washington is reducing some long-term deployments in the Indo-Pacific,...the US's decision to help Ukraine only with weapons and the wavering of some European countries about support for Kyiv do not bode well for Taiwan ◆ Daily Express, 2023-7-23: Japan says: If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan...the government would need to first secure the support of the population before intervening.
◆ BBC, 2023-7-21: Much of the #MeToo focus is still on sexual harassment, and "large-scale exposure" of sexual assault is yet to happen, that can only happen with more resources legal and counselling support from the state. The government must extend the statute of limitations for prosecuting sexual harassment cases, which is currently six months. ◆ ResponsibleStatecraft.org, 2023-7-17: War with China over Taiwan? Don't expect US allies (Japan, Australia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) to join ◆ Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17: the US will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will enable Australia to conduct operations such as anti-submarine warfare against China's subsurface fleet. Similarly, Japan will acquire counterstrike capabilities, which will include purchasing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These would allow Japan to target China's missile launchers and command-and-control sites that would be key to an invasion of Taiwan. But there is uncertainty over not just the kind of support allies would provide, but over whether they would provide any at all. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws. The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”◆ West Point, 2023-7-11: <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan> implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war, and highlights a fundamental component of warfare that applies to an attempted Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan—that the war will be won or lost by land forces on the ground. ◆ NEWS Australia, 2023-7-12: Taiwan considers reviving nuclear power plants due to the threat of China
◆ Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: Taiwan's dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield" ◆ le Monde, 2023-7-5: many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: Taiwan is far from ready, the professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern ◆ NPR, 2023-7-3: More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation. ◆ ResponsibleStateCraft.org, 2023-7-3: Taiwan's total trade increased to $907 billion in 2022 from $508.4 billion in 2016. While 39 percent of Taiwanese exports went to China and Hong Kong last year ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29: if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. ◆ National Interest, 2023-6-29: it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward... ◆ TIME, 2023-6-26: Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-27: Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan’s military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. it could require potentially several months – for the US to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to ... fight a major contingency in East Asia. ◆ NPR.org, 2023-6-22: the Council on Foreign Relations says that the U.S. and China are 'drifting toward a war' over Taiwan. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-22: Can sanctions threat deter china from invading Taiwan? The answer, according to a new st |