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  The Atlantics, 2024-10-25: Taiwan's military, in a word, is incompetent.   The need for reform is more urgent than ever.  Taiwan very likely could not defend itself from a full-scale invasion on its own ... ... isn't just outnumbered and outgunned. More troubling, its armed forces are plagued by poor planning and training, insufficient stockpiles, a sclerotic command system, and weaponry that may be ill-suited to defend against an invasion.  New York Times, 2024-10-22: If tensions continued rising, China would likely deploy expanded drills again, coordinating between its various military services and showing off modern warfare capabilities; But the frequency of such incursions also raises the risk of a conflict, accidental or otherwise, that could draw in the United States.

  Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-10-16: Taiwan and other U.S. partners will need to contend with an increasingly capable and aggressive China and rising isolationism and protectionism in the United States. Trump's foreign policy pronouncements reflect sentiments held by many in the United States.

◆  Chicago Council on Global Affairs , 2024-10-8: Should China invade, Americans support ... ?
If China were to invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United States: (% support)
  2024 2023 2022
Using the US military to airlift food and medical supplies to Taiwan 74% 78  
Imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on china 72% 75 76
Sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government 59% 62 65
Sending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China 36% 39 40

  full text

China's "the Joint Sword 2024B" military drills set a record

◆   le Monde, 2024-10-15 Taiwan announced that it had detected a record 153 Chinese aircraft in one day near its territory.
◆   Bloomberg, 2024-10-15 China sent a record 111 warplanes across a US-drawn boundary in the strait separating the sides.
◆   Insider, 2024-10-15 A record-breaking 153 Chinese warplanes flew around Taiwan in war games meant as a warning.
◆   Reuters, 2024-10-15 Taiwan says China uses record number of aircraft in war games.
◆   BBC, 2024-10-15 the deployment and how close Chinese ships and aircraft were to Taiwan - as well as the fiery rhetoric - could be seen as very aggressive behaviour a dramatic escalation .
◆   Asia Times, 2024-10-15 expert:  the latest military drills and the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on September 25 have sent a clear signal to the US that China is building an “area denial” capability that the US can no longer fight against

    full text

 


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  China's response to national day speech by Taiwanese President William Lai

◆   BBC, 2024-10-14 With new drills, China is sending a message to Taiwanese President William Lai that moves towards "Taiwan independence" are bound to meet a "dead end""Scared" and "desensitised" - here's how people on the streets of Taipei are talking about the exercise involved all parts of the military and simulates a full-scale attack on its neighbour.
◆   USA Today, 2024-10-14 China launches 'punishment' drills as 'Stern warning'
◆   National Review, 2024-10-14 The dragon will not be appeased; There should be no question that the scale of China's naval and air-force exercises represents an existential threat to Taiwan's sovereignty.  Perhaps the Taiwanese are too confident. Officials seem convinced that their dominance of the global semiconductor industry represents a deterrent against aggression. They can hold the world's consumer electronics industry hostage in the event of ......
◆   Japan Times, 2024-10-15 China says it won't rule out use of force to take  Taiwan  as war games end
◆   Reuters, 2024-10-14 Senior Taiwan security official says pressure on Taiwan from China is 'not light'
◆   Reuters, 2024-10-12 China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after denouncing president's speech

 

 Taiwan's president in first National Day speech

◆   Financial Times , 2024-10-10 Taiwan's president calls on China to ‘live up to’ duty to protect peace.  China accused Lai of “deliberately severing the historical connection” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait; and has threatened to annex it with military force if Taipei indefinitely resists its control. China has not previously responded to a Taiwan president's national address with military moves
Wall Street Journal, 2024-10-10 Taiwan leader urges calm amid military threats... Lai Ching-te, who China accuses of separatism, says Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan
◆  Washington Post , 2024-10-10 Lai Ching-te says Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan.
◆  Washington Examiner , 2024-10-11

Lai Ching-te declared “On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving... These are fine words. Unfortunately, words can't shoot down missiles.  In that regard, Taiwan has a big problem.   a 2.5% of GDP defense budget is a sad joke.   Taiwanese reserve forces lack adequate training and readiness, and its military procurement remains too reliant on platforms that lack agility and survivability......

◆  Reuters, 2024-10-10 China said Lai was a stubborn adherent of Taiwan independence, full of confrontational thinking, "constantly provoking troubles and deliberately aggravating cross-strait tensions".  "Lai Ching-te has made every effort to piece together the grounds for secession"
◆  Bloomberg , 2024-10-11 Lai reiterated that that neither side of the strait separating the two sides was “subordinate to each other.”  Beijing criticized  for sending “a dangerous signal of seeking independence.”... his speech showed “he is hell-bent on Taiwan independence and has the ill intention of heightening tensions in the Taiwan Strait for his political, selfish interest.
◆  AFP , 2024-10-10 China warned after the speech that Lai's "provocations" would result in "disaster" for the people of Taiwan.

◆  Foundation of Defense of Democracies, 2024-10-4: A cyber-enabled economic coercion campaign is the CCP's most strategic and logical approach to realizing this long-term national priority.  e.g., the CCP simultaneously continued economic attacks on critical infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, reduced confidence in Taiwanese manufacturing, and unleashed cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns that undermined communications, energy, and banking systems. ◆  Brookings, 2024-10-3: Beijing is pursuing two parallel paths, significant military build-up and "coercion without violence" to compel the people of Taiwan to accept some form of union with the People's Republic of China as a least bad option for Taiwan's future. "what do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?” Such skepticism has stayed hard-wired into Trump’s worldview. The common thread among these utterances is Trump (team) suggestion that Taiwan is too small and far away for the United States to feel obliged to defend. Harris said in 2022 that the US would “support Taiwan's self-defense, consistent with our longstanding policy.”
 

Taiwanese are ready for fighting ??

Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative to the U.S. is warning that China has ramped up its aggression toward the island, and that its people are ready to fight. Washington Post (2024-8-4) “Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing where the fight is happening, when the fight is happening” . The island is patently not ready for that.
National Interest (2024-8-29): the Taiwanese are not well prepared for the kind of attack that China is plotting.
War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21:  Taipei has not made the necessary preparations.

◆  Economist, 2024-10-3: China is ready to blockade Taiwan at any time they want",  Taiwan's navy commander warns.  The government may be worried that too much disclosure would damage Taiwan's public morale or economy   Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-9-25: most security analysts say China would be able to conquer Taiwan by force, albeit at a potentially considerable cost. Today China's outmatches Taiwan's both in size and quality   New York Times, 2024-9-25: Taiwan and U.S. work to counter China's drone dominance. U.S. policymakers may be leery of depending too much on Taiwan for drone parts. Some worry about industrial secrets leaking to China. If Taiwan were to come under a Chinese blockade or attack, American drone makers could lose flows of vital components War On The Rocks (2024-9-20): Washington is quietly watching how Taiwan's new president Lai consolidates power using the court to prosecute former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan over corruption allegations.  The arrest and detention of TPP chair Ko Wen-je on corruption charges have Lai's critics protesting that he is using the judiciary to persecute rivals.  Washington observers might worry that Lai is undermining the independence of the judicial system...
 

China's strategy to achieve unification

  Brookings, 2024-9-16 Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve unification. The PLA can subject Taiwan to various limited attacks, such as missile and air bombardment.To subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and “gray zone” military tactics... seeks to deplete the confidence of the people brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/
Politico, 2024-9-11 Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario.  China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower

Reuters, 2024-9-11: China says it is verifying email tipoffs about Taiwan 'separatist' activity  Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-9-11: Beijing wades into Taipei drama over corruption probe against TPP leader, and has accused Taiwan's president of persecuting Beijing-leaning revals  National Interest, 2024-9-5:  A Taiwan war could mean U.S. aircraft carriers are 'going to the bottom'.  Some leaders are looking to lessons from Ukraine to make the Taiwan Strait a “hellscape” for Chinese forces.  In this scenario, the U.S. floods the region with autonomous aerial, surface, and subsurface drones, to buy Taiwanese and coalition defenders time to move assets into the region to blunt a Chinese assault.  Wall Street Journal, 2024-8-28: Elbridge Colby suggested the U.S. may not come to Taiwan's defense in the event of Chinese aggression. Robert O'Brien urged Taiwan to spend at least 5% of its gross domestic product on defense. Times of India, 2024-8-30: Taiwan's heavy reliance on imports—97% of its energy and 70% of its food—makes it particularly vulnerable, according to report from CSIS. such an action could force the US and its allies into a dilemma: whether to engage militarily, risking a larger war with China, or to impose sanctions, which could hurt their own economies and global stability Insider, 2024-8-29: Taiwan is rethinking its use of US-made anti-tank missiles after less than half hit their targets in recent combat drills SCMP, 2024-8-29: according to the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank, a substantial backlog of US$19.1 billion worth of weapons ordered by Taiwan has piled up, some of which has been delayed for a decade or more; Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity has undercut Taiwan's ability to defend itself against Beijing, sending mixed signals to China...   Business Insider, 2024-8-23: within the next six months, an aggressive, short-of-war campaign could force some of Taiwan's most vulnerable islands into a quarantine.  Perhaps the biggest problem here is that such an event would put the US and its allies in a grey area   Washington Post, 2024-8-21: a new and troubling strain of isolationism is emerging within the Republican Party that advocates for turning our backs on Taiwan and other allies. This new isolationism, masquerading as realism, dismisses the strategic imperatives that have underpinned American foreign policy Atlantic Council, 2024-8-21: The period between delivery and integration is often invisible to the public.  The US should be focused not only on what Taiwan may need to deter and defeat China, but also on what can be quickly integrated into Taiwan's military.  If the US government openly admits that Taiwan may be unable to use the systems already behind schedule for delivery, it could incentivize Beijing to seek unification by force.  NPR, 2024-8-19: As rhetoric heats up over whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, there is also growing skepticism in Taiwan over U.S. reliability as a security partner.   The i  (UK), 2024-8-16: Emboldened by Russia's actions in Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed to use any force necessary to take Taiwan back, putting his military on notice to be ready for a full-scale invasion by 2027, UK and US intelligence agencies understand  CNBC 2024-8-5: Taiwan under pressure to bolster its defense as Trump-Harris presidential race stokes policy concerns  Washington Post, Star and Strips, 2024-8-4: the “Zero Day” show's bleak assessment of Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing President Lai Ching-te,  new programs have continued to face shortages of funding, instructors and equipment National Interest, 2024-7-30: An invasion would be swift and sharp, as the first Gulf War, China would likely knock out Taiwanese radar and air/sea defense capabilities first, followed by drops of airborne troops, including the seizure of airfields and ports. An amphibious assault would follow. The possibility of targeted special operations and cyber actions by embedded PLA assets in Taiwan ... Finally, an EMP attack might happen Daily Express, 2024-7-25: Fears that, if elected, Mr Trump would not support Taiwan in case of an attack from China come...the Chinese army could simply shell it without even using long-range missiles. These remarks, seen by some as a suggestion Mr Trump believes it futile to try and defend the island from potential Chinese aggression ◆  Bloomberg, 2024-7-22: Taiwan's President risks angering China with 'National Identity' call Lai Ching-te urges DPP to protect Taiwan sovereignty. KMT lawmaker said it smacked of “ideology and nationalism” and was a sign that Lai was moving toward despotism New York Times, 2024-7-17: Donald J. Trump said that Taiwan should pay the United States for defending it from China, a remark highlighting the uncertainties — and high stakes — of how he might handle the smoldering Taiwan Strait dispute National Interest, 2024-7-13: Taiwan and its partners needed to find a steady path, avoiding both complacency and hysteria. President Biden should reverse course and reiterate the stated policy of ambiguity Le Monde, 2024-7-11: Taiwan reports record-high Chinese military aircraft activity in 24 hours    
 

Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11: China sent a record number of warplanes across a U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new president of the archipelago mulls a trip that may include a stop in America Financial Times, 2024-7-10: Experts warn that Taiwan remains woefully underprepared for war.  New York Times, 2024-7-3 : China seized Taiwanese Boat (Fishing illegally) -  a move could add to tensions between Beijing and President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan. Nikkei Asia , 2024-7-2: China pressures Taiwan's Lai (Ching-te) with most jet fighters in nearly 2 years Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is pursuing “separation” from China in “incremental” fashion.   The Atlantic Council, 2024-6-27: It is more challenging for Taiwan to win that level of support than it is for Ukraine, given Taiwan's contested political status and China's relentless international campaign against it.  Taiwan worries less about a sudden Chinese military invasion  than about slow strangulation... Foreign Affairs writes that Taiwan's major military investments are not well aligned with the insidious nature of the gray-zone threat.   Daily Express, 2024-6-23 : In a move that escalates already high tensions, China has issued a dire warning to Taiwan independence advocates, threatening them with the death penalty. CNN, 2024-6-22 : China could take Taiwan without even needing to invade   ──   Quarantine    ──  will make it far harder for the United States and other like-minded democracies to counter Financial Times, 2024-6-16 : China's President Xi Jinping told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking TaiwanThe White House did not comment. New York Times, 2024-6-17 : ... the United States would step in if China truly threatened to invadeBut that belief is not universal among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical about American dedication and intent...Not all Taiwanese people welcome the tightening embrace (strategic integration) between Taiwan and the U.S. The Australian, 2024-6-4: It depends - Biden wavers on Taiwan defence  Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2: The U.S. is getting China's calculations wrong -  assumes - China won't invade unless provoked, and that China still needs to get its military built to attack.  But China is determined to subvert and manipulate the island's politics   FoxNews, 2024-5-28: House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose" if China invaded Taiwan." New York Times, 2024-5-27: I just think our defense industrial base is overloaded right now, and it cannot handle this amount of conflict in the world.”, McCaul said   Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president,  the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy Reuters, 2024-5-15: China's military has sailed and flown closer to Taiwan in recent weeks than it has before Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15: China said it would sanction five Taiwanese political commentators and roll out a law to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office Washington Examiner, 2024-5-10:  hard to believe that any fight with the United States over Taiwan would not include preemptive or retaliatory strikes against our military facilities in Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and perhaps even the U.S. mainland...key U.S. supply chains, including those related to national security, are dependent on China, giving Beijing the ability to strangle America possibly. The Telegraph, 2024-5-11: Just recently Beijing manoeuvred 12 ships to within four nautical miles of Taiwan. The United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has a clear list on what you can do inside someone else's territorial waters (less than 12 nautical miles off the coast)

Newsweek, 2024-5-8: Taiwan must embrace a more dynamic defensive strategy that can independently deter, or at least stall, Beijing. ABC News, 2024-5-1: The US is in a Cold War with China over Taiwan Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-30: Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports as global demand for electronics picks up, benefiting the producer of high-end chips. The research firm projects Taiwan's economic growth at 5.5% this year, well above consensus views. TIME, 2024-5-1: America’s Asian allies, like its European ones, may be on their own under Trump.  Trump declines to say whether he would come to Taiwan's defense. Daily Express (UK), 2024-4-27: China is gearing up to strike Taiwan and could hit the self-governed territory in just a few months as Beijing and the West lock horns Associated Press, The Hill, 2024-4-24: China blasts US military aid to Taiwan, saying the island is entering a ‘dangerous situation’ SUN (UK), 2024-4-24: China building army in space – tripling number of spy satellites amid Taiwan invasion fears Economist, 2024-4-18: China is talking to Taiwan's next leader, just not directly ... being granted an audience with Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou (Taiwan's former president ) wrote that Mr Xi had “extended an olive branch to us”.  Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”. Reuters, 2024-4-19: Taiwan says new Chinese air routes threaten Taiwanese islands' flight safety Daily Express, 2024-4-19: China on brink of Taiwan invasion as NATO braces for World War 3 Asia Nikkei, 2024-4-16: NATO Defense College report: Nato could become involved in a potential Taiwan conflict if Chinese attack on Hawaii  CNN, 2024-4-10: It's the first time a former president of Taiwan has been hosted by China's top leader in Beijing since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT fled to Taipei in 1949.   Their reunion highlights the widening political divide across the Taiwan Strait, and is a signal to Taiwan and others that peaceful unification through winning over hearts and minds remains Beijing's preferred option AFP, 2024-4-11: China's Xi tells ex-Taiwan leader 'external interference' cannot block unification Fox News, 2024-4-6: The largest coordinated display since last year - The incursion into Taiwanese territory by People's Liberation Army (PLA) planes and sea vessels followed a Tuesday phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. New York Times, 2024-3-28 : After U.S. troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, China pushed propaganda through traditional state-run media and social media that “the U.S. commitment to anything is not firm,” Taiwan's top diplomat said. “We suffered from a huge wave of cognitive warfare.” Newsweek, 2024-3-29 : China doubles down on friction in Taiwan's front-line islands

 

7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off Taiwan

New York Times, 2024-4-4 Taipei 101, once the tallest building in the world, still, some experts say that more needs to be done to either strengthen or demolish structures that don't meet standards, and such calls have grown louder in the wake of the latest earthquake.
Fortune, 2024-4-4 TSMC said its fabrication plants recovered 70% of tools within 10 hours of the earthquake, and that its “critical tools,” such as its multimillion-dollar extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, remain unharmed...  its massive chip foundry mega-complexes are nearly quake-proof.
USA Today, 2024-4-4 The island's two nuclear power stations remain unaffected.  Nvidia said it expects no supply disruptions from the earthquake.  Taiwan, prone to earthquakes, sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” where 90% of the world's temblors take place.  It felt strong in Taipei because of the “basin effect,” which occurs when earthquake reverberations become trapped in soft ground.
ABC News, 2024-4-3  TSMC, one of the biggest companies in Taiwan's crucial semiconductor manufacturing industry, said its safety systems were operating normally and that some fabrication plants had been evacuated as a preventive measure.

Asia Times, 2024-3-27 : the government has failed to make military service a viable career choice - Military service is a hard life with low pay, bad housing and no GI-Bill sort of benefits... simply isn't respected in traditional Chinese society...Taiwan's “reserve force” is shambolic and that's being charitable.   There is no “territorial” or militia force, either.   Taiwan also lacks a civil defense scheme.  New York Times, 2024-3-24 :  Two Chinese survivors told Chinese media that the Taiwanese vessel collided with them, while the Taiwanese Coast Guard said  the two boats “made contact” at times during the chaseChinese officials are now waiting for a report from Taiwanese investigators into the death incident; tensions could climb if Beijing disputes their conclusions   Washington Examiner, 2024-3-22: Adm. John Aquilino, U.S. Navy commander and head of the Indo-Pacific forces, told the House Armed Services Committee that America is steadily less prepared for a war with China that now appears to be right around the corner.  AFP, The Telegraph, 2024-3-24 : US military officials have warned that China could invade Taiwan by 2027   War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21:  Taipei has not made the necessary preparations. Taiwan's navy continues to prioritize small numbers of large surface combatants over acquiring the “large number of small things,”... Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-18 : Simulations of an all-out Chinese invasion run by American think tanks assume most of the Taiwanese air force or navy would be quickly destroyed by Chinese missile strikes, but Ukraine (short of most powerful big-ticket weapons) had trouble last year breaking through fortified positions established by Russian troops. The U.S. pressure didn't mean Taipei stopped buying big-ticket items. “The asymmetrical approach would put the whole of Taiwan into a meat grinder",  Taiwan's former official says Washington Examiner, 2024-3-22: Adm. John Aquilino, U.S. Navy commander and head of the Indo-Pacific forces, told the House Armed Services Committee that America is steadily less prepared for a war with China that now appears to be right around the corner. Foreign Policy, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan imports  97 percent  of its energy through highly vulnerable maritime shipping routes. Any quarantine, blockade, or invasion of the island by China would devastate its ability to sustain basic services and critical infrastructure—not to mention the factories that produce approximately  90 percent  of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Solutions are in short supply. War On The Rocks, 2024-3-14 : U.S.  public support  for Taiwan, which is as high as it has ever been according to polls, supports aiding Taiwan to defend itself against China in the event of an attack, but consistently opposes any direct military intervention by the United States.

Daily Express, 2024-3-13:  Taiwan war with China given latest seal of approval by US with new deadly weapon (the Link 16 comm. system )   in a move set to escalate tensions between  Taiwan  and  China delivery Link 16 acts as the brain and nervous system of Taiwan's military apparatus, places control firmly in US hands. Daily Express, 2024-3-8: China - with its military build-up, hoarding of food, and military recruitment drives - is preparing for something big A recent documentary aired in Mainland China also added to expectations that a move on Taiwan is imminent Recent purges of top military brass might be an attempt by CCP leader Xi Jinping to eliminate all opposition to invading or blockading Taiwan in the near future.  Anyone who thinks China would be deterred because of the economic impact of war ought to remember Zero Covid and how political considerations outweighed economic factors. United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5) : After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure. China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional conflict. EurAsian Times, 2024-3-5:  Admiral Samuel Paparo, leading the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could soon use military drills to cover up an invasion of Taiwan. Thus, the writing is on the wall. 
 

Taiwan classifies the military move against intrusion as  "First strike"

EurAsian Times, 2024-3-10:Taiwan has authorized its commanders to use lethal military force on intruding Chinese warplanes that cross its aerial and maritime territorial borders. Classifying the military move as a “first strike,” ...Ministry of National Defense says “that if enemy aircraft or vessels intruded into Taiwan’s airspace or waters, then commanders are authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security when all other non-peaceful means fail.”  eurasiantimes.com/china-ill-prepared-to-annex-taiwan-top-pla-general/ United Daily (Taiwan), 2024-3-10: a group of China's fishing boats entered Taiwan's internal waters (6 nautical miles) and destroyed our fishing-net, but Taiwan was inactive about it.  udn.com/news/story/11091/7821748?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2

  The Hill, 2024-3-5: In China's legislature, Premier Li's report had stronger language on Taiwan - Dropping the word “peace” combined with the phrase “resolutely opposing Taiwan independence,” is what signals a stronger stance Council on Foreign relations, 2024-2-27: Taiwanese society has grown increasingly skeptical of the United States, which has been enhancing its political relationship with Taiwan but without enhancing its international standing or offering it tangible economic benefits.  the increased number of official visits to Taiwan has been perceived as largely symbolic Financial Times, 2024-2-23: Previous statements only pledged to ‘resolutely oppose’ Taiwan independence, but now China's Communist party toughens Taiwan rhetoric with call to ‘fight’ independence VOA, 2024-2-23: recent Chinese coast guard activities actions  will likely become a "new normal" near Taiwan’s outlying islands.  We can expect China to conduct similar operations near Kinmen and Matsu Islands Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry.  So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.  

Financial Times, 2024-2-19: China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen just off the Chinese coast Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade
 

 ◆  the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

  Taiwan China Japan Korea Singapore
Comprehensive Power No.14   15.2 2nd 3rd 7th 8th
Economic capability 8th  -1.2   13.0 2nd  87.0 3rd   5th 6th
Military Capability 11th  +2.1   21.7 2nd   68.1 6th   27.4 5th 9th
Resilience 18th   -5.9  24.7 3rd   70.4 11th  10th 14th
Future Resources 12th   6.5 2nd   72.9 5th 7th 11th
Diplomatic Influence  22th   19.4 1st    91.5 3rd 6th 10th
Economic Relationships 12th   11.1 1st   98.3 3rd 5th 4th
Cultural Influence 13th   12.6 2nd   47.4 3rd 7th 9th
Defense Networks 16th   11.8 7th    23.7 3rd 4th 5th
 
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/

DW, 2024-2-16: the blockade would be a very special threat for Taiwan...  neither the conventional capability, nor asymmetric capability, can be effective to deter or defend for this operation CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would also quickly spread across the globe and into cyberspace and space. There would also be real risk of a nuclear exchange.   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024-2-9: Short of clearly committing to restraint and offering some sort of arrangement that could make people on Taiwan better off overall, CCP leaders are left only with the option to escalate confrontation through harsher means    
 

Comparison -
The number of best universities of Asian countries in world best indexes

index world ranks China Singapore Japan H K Australia S. Korea Taiwan  
Nature 1-100 37 2 3 1   2    
US News 1-100 4 2 1 4 8      
QS 1-25 2 2 1 1 3 1    
25-60 3   1 2 3 1    
60-100     2 2 3 3 1  
CWUR 1-100 6 1 3   2 1    
Times 1-70 6 2 2 3 5 1    
70-100 1     2 1 2    
Mar. 17, 2024    total 59 9 13 15 25 11 1  
☉  Nature /  after No.100 - Taiwan (NTU 台灣大學) ranks 208, behind Hong Kong (103. City U HK  108 Chinese U. HK   122. HKUST    207.  HK Poly.), Australia (no. 112, 113, 134, 148), Israel (no. 86, 140, 176, 196), Saudi Arabia (145.  KAUST),  India (149 India U., 189.   India Institute of Science) etc

☉  QS / Taiwan (NTU ranks no. 69) is behind Malaysia (no. 65 U. Malaya)
☉  CWUR / Taiwan (NTU no. 102) is behind Israel (no. 70, 87)   full text: https://intlhumanrights.com/education.htm

 

The tension between Taiwan and China reached a new high
the Deaths of Chinese Fishermen That Taiwanese Forces Chased Away

Associated Press, 2024-2-18 The fishermen's deaths are unusual despite the level of Chinese activity in the waters near Kinmen, which is closer to China than it is to Taiwan's main island
TIME, 2024-2-15 China: Taiwan's officials have long mistreated fishermen from the mainland and forcefully and dangerously seized mainland fishing boats, a pattern it claims led to the recent
Reuters, NBC News, 2024-2-18 China has condemned Taiwan's actions and labeled the death incident "wicked".  The deaths had caused “strong indignation” in China, and there is no such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted waters’.  China will strengthen its law enforcement activities and carry out regular patrols around a small group of Taiwanese-controlled islands off the Chinese coast as tensions rise over the deaths of two Chinese nationals
Daily Express (UK), 2024-2-18 China ramps up coast guard ships in Taiwan waters as tensions rise over fishermen deaths. Tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a new high.
DW (Germany), 2024-2-16 Inevitable Taiwan tensions in 2024
China Daily (China) , 2024-2-19

China: A callous act with disregard for human life. It has caused strong indignation across the mainland ; For many years, the mainland established reception facilities for Taiwan fishermen in numerous coastal areas, provided them assistance such as shelters and supplies, and rescued Taiwan fishing boats and fishermen, In contrast, the DPP Taiwan have, for some time, forcefully detained mainland fishing boats under various pretexts and treated mainland fishermen in a rude and dangerous manner, this was the key reason why the fatal incident occurred.  The mainland reserves the right to take further measures, and Taiwan will bear all consequences.

Taipei Times (Taiwan), 2024-2-16 Taiwan (MAC) : Coast guard's conduct appropriate -  they were legally performing their duties and had not erred in any way.  Chinese fishing vessels have been intruding into Taiwan's restricted or prohibited waters for a while to poach high-priced fish
GT (China) ,  2024-2-26  Taiwan even used the phrase "rescue explanation of the overturned mainland speedboat" at a press conference, making the accident sound like the mainland fishing boat had accidentally capsized and Taiwan's vessel was there to rescue, blatantly spreading false information.  If the Taiwan authorities continue to disregard the mainland's sincerity, then they will bear the consequences and pay the cost. Calling off the "off-limit" or "restricted" waters in the Xiamen-Kinmen zones, realizing regular law enforcement patrols in the entire Xiamen-Kinmen waters, including boarding inspections of relevant ships globaltimes.cn/page/202402/1307706.shtml

Reuters, 2024-2-6: While Taiwan has installed anti-tank obstacles on some outlying islands facing China, the beaches around the capital remain apparently undefended.  If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership Reuters, 2024-1-31: American military logistics in the Pacific is one of the greatest U.S. vulnerabilities in any potential conflict over Taiwan. Our ability to deter conflict in the Western Pacific over the next five years is not close to where it needs to be The Hill, 2024-1-29: War with China would be an unmitigated strategic catastrophe  

Semafor, 2024-1-26: whether or not these investments (more than 1.6 million reserve personnel) would count for much in the case of a potential invasion by Beijing “remains to be seen,”...As Taiwan continues to adjust to shifting demographics – such as its aging population and declining male-to-female ratio – the current one-year conscription policy for men may need lengthening further.   Semafor, 2024-1-24: according to Foreign Policy, Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party lacks many military commanders who advocate asymmetrical warfare and a “porcupine strategy:” deterring Beijing with a smaller stockpile of more effective weapons. Security officials within the party have historically called for reinforcing the island with big tanks, submarines, and fighter jets that “Washington thinks Taiwan doesn't need” National Interest 2024-1-24:  the possibility of Washington sacrificing Taiwan in a deal with China that would benefit the United States financially would rise significantly under another Trump administration. Taiwan's unfortunate fate is that it will always be vulnerable to a sellout by the United States. This danger may be increasing. The Hill, 2024-1-23: According to the CSIS survey, 68 percent of U.S. experts said a Taiwan Strait crisis was likely or very likely in 2024, compared to 58 percent of Taiwanese experts. About three-quarters of U.S. experts and two-thirds of Taiwanese experts said ongoing efforts to stabilize U.S.-China ties would not stave such a crisis.    AFP, 2024-1-14: Beijing could apply an economic squeeze on Taiwan, which would "set the terms of interaction for the next four years of cross-strait relations". President-elect Lai's party lose its majority - Any legislation regarding cross-strait relations would be difficult to pass NBC, 2024-1-9: China has framed the (Taiwan) election as “a choice between war and peace.”; Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, described Taiwan's security situation as “urgent but not immediate.” Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: According to the Economist, China has directly warned the U.S. of the consequences of a Lai victory, raising tensions in the region. In the event of a Lai victory, large-scale demonstrations from the Chinese military and other belligerent moves are expected. The prospect of Taiwan severing ties with a China ... possibly leading him to warm to direct military action. Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. much of Taiwan's defense budget is locked into capabilities that are neither survivable nor potent.” Taipei is relying on the U.S. Air Force and Navy to ride to the rescue.   Telegraph, 2024-1-5: Super aircraft carrier Fujian is nearly ready for a China-Taiwan war - expect US and allied forces to make sinking Fujian a top priority. Telegraph, 2024-1-3:The final days of presidential election campaigning will probably result in intensifying clashes over which party can best handle relations with China. CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan.  

media

China's invasion

GB News, 2023-12-25 So we should be working with Taiwan right now privately telling them we're not going to fight for you. “We just can't get into a war that could go nuclear, it would be foolish.”
NBC, 2023-12-26 Xi's private warning  on  reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially  pivotal  presidential election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan (ps: no plan to send military troops)
Daily Express, 2023-12-23 The Taiwan war is coming - and the West will need boots on the ground
New York Post, 2023-12-21  China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Biden often talks tough, but shies from any action he fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the hands of America's adversaries.  
First Post, 2023-12-22  Japan says that an invasion of Taiwan by China is imminent and that it is preparing for the repercussions 

 

Politico, 2023-12-23: The guessing game of  how likely an intervention — or even invasion — by China is helps explain the nervy tenor of this race (presidential election). New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Biden often talks tough, but shies from any action he fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the hands of America's adversaries. NBC Universal, 2023-12-21: War of Words / Experts say China is pushing influence campaign as Taiwan preps for Presidential Election. majority of voters don't favor closer ties to China or to the US, instead, they want to preserve the status quo with Taiwan  Economist, 2023-12-13:  There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.   The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict... Defense News, 2023-12-5:The real danger is that Chinese leaders calculate a window exists for them to achieve a fait accompli before the United States has sufficient combat power in the region...Unfortunately, the logistics problem defies simple solution for the US... Fox News, 2023-12-3: Joint Chiefs chairman says 'we all should be' worried about China possibly invading Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-11-30: Americans now want the U.S. to focus its military efforts in the Middle East over East Asia, a month into the Israel-Hamas war; when it comes to the overall military capability, the United States no longer has outright superiority, but the American people clearly have not internalized that.   The Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-2: Taiwan is about to vote against China.  War is coming. The time for doing business with China is finished.    The Market Oracle (UK), 2023-11-28: Taiwan's elections loom just a few weeks away. Continued militarization would undermine past economic success. Taiwan is at its ultimate crossroads.  Almost every second Taiwanese would prefer a less confrontational stance and greater focus on domestic economy.      

 
western media  Taiwan's presidential election -  could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly.   brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te.  brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27 Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28 China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan"  brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29 Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

  The Diplomat, 2023-12-1: the KMT has a history of opposition against asymmetric strategies. Most recently, KMT legislators attempted to block new capabilities ranging from the purchase of Harpoons to Javelins and Stingers.  Jaw (vice-president candidate) is an avowed opponent of the 12-month conscription, calling it a provocation to Beijing.  WSWS.org, 2023-11-29:  low economic growth rates, rising unemployment and social distress will also have a marked impact (on presidential election). Taiwan entered recession in the first quarter of 2023 as GDP contracted by 3.02 percent compared to the same period last year. The economy is expected to grow by just 1.61 percent for the year.  Real estate speculation is fuelling a growing housing crisis. While official unemployment figures remain relatively low overall, youth unemployment for those between 20 and 24 is more than 11 percent.   Bloomberg, 2023-11-26: Taiwan draws clear US-versus-China battle lines in key election ; an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. There are a substantial amount of voters who want a change   Reuters, 2023-11-24:  China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud    Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi: 'peace is all well and good, but at some point we need to move toward resolution more generally' Newsweek, 2023-11-21: an overwhelming majority (7/10) of people in Taiwan do not believe the United States is trustworthy, according to a new poll released on Monday. Most, however, were convinced by America's commitment to the island's safety.      Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the Dpp's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait   The WEEK, 2023-11-13: Historically, Taiwan has been an "easy target for Chinese spies", It is "not very strict about punishing espionage"...China has "penetrated many parts of the Taiwanese government over the decades", said The New York Times   BBC, 2023-11-9: If Taiwan is not controlling sensitive and secret information very well… You should expect any competent foreign intelligence service to get access to it.

media Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15 Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15 Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Bidenfrom Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16 The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict
 
western media Taiwan's presidential election
Economist, 2023-11-15 Taiwan's opposition parties unite... could lead to a significant relaxation of the island-state's defiant posture towards China
Washington Post, 2023-11-15 Taiwan's two main opposition parties, both of which have vowed to restart talks with China, announced a joint presidential ticket for January’s election in a deal that could bring a major political upset in the self-ruled island democracy.
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 in any case, support for the DPP has been fading ahead of January’s presidential elections. But voters in Taiwan tend to be lukewarm toward candidates seen as too pro-China, and the DPP still leads in several polls.
Bloomberg, 2023-11-15  a single opposition bid raises the likelihood of a government in Taipei more willing to accept China’s conditions for direct talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
TIME, 2023-11-15 A successful opposition alliance — no matter who is running as president — means it’s likely cross-strait tensions will improve
Financial Times, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s opposition parties join forces for crucial presidential poll Deal sharply increases odds that ruling Democratic Progressive party will lose election; Beijing has denounced Lai as a separatist and framed the presidential race as a choice between war and peace — rhetoric sometimes echoed by the opposition.
Reuters, 2023-11-15 Some opinion polls have shown that if Hou and Ko teamed up, in whatever combination, they would beat Lai Tamkang University scholar: The U.S. and China both want stabilised Taiwan Strait relations. Lai may not be the ideal person for this

  BBC, 2023-11-6:  in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy    New York Times, 2023-10-29:  the United States must also provide credible assurances to Beijing that as long as China refrains from using force against Taiwan, Washington will not support the island's independence nor return to its past defense treaty with Taipei. Assurances like these can help to avoid war. Economist, 2023-10-26: 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years.   Newsweek, 2023-10-26: Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says    SCMP, 2023-10-21: Taiwanese defence minister admitted  it would be "impossible" for the island's military to block a saturation attack. The inadequate training given to Taiwanese reservists after discharge has been known for some time, drawing criticism from the US, ...Taiwan could also learn from Israel about maintaining a lasting public enthusiasm to fend off the enemy   New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence.  If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan, it will set a precedent in which Chinese leaders kill and destroy to achieve their goals.   Newsweek, 2023-10-16: The U.S. has known since no later than 2012——that Chinese surface-to-surface (STS) missiles can destroy U.S. aircraft carriers, or any other military asset that isn't submerged; Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption. A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order.   VOA News, 2023-10-13: Expert says : for Taiwan, the most important thing is whether the intelligence it has gathered can help Taipei prepare for potential military conflicts Taiwan should also assess whether it can promptly mobilize its forces and whether its forces can react to sudden attacks swiftly... there's a question about whether Taiwan can obtain enough equipment for all of them   Telegraph, 2023-10-13: If China attempts a blockade of Taiwan, Taiwanese forces and their American allies will have to break the blockade – or risk losing the island democracy to mainland...It’s worth noting the United States hasn’t directly intervened in the Chinese blockade of a Philippine outpost    Express (UK), 2023-10-13: A China-Taiwan war could break out unless the war in Israel is put to an end    Newsweek, 2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously.   Washington Post, 2023-10-12: Taiwan is closely watching the Hamas-Israel war for lessons as it faces intimidation from China   The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications  AP, 2023-10-3:  a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity. Reuters, 2023-9-28: Taiwan says" it's not likely for them (China) to do anything major to threaten Taiwan or anything so visible that the Taiwanese people understand that they are trying to intervene in our election" Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion, or should move towards building ties with China. The opposition Kuomintang has called the vote a choice between “war and peace”, implying that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s hostility towards China will provoke it to attack.  China...narratives that portray America, not China, as the island's biggest threat.   Washington Examiner, 2023-9-26: Americans are increasingly concerned over tensions between China and Taiwan, with more than 80% reporting the problem is "somewhat" or "very serious" for the U.S.  

  Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

 CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”.

 Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.".


BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore Drew Thompson:  the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China... The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
NewsWeek, 2023-9-29:  A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.  Policy experts in the U.S.  have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30:  The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.
 

The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China has plans to mobilize hundreds or thousands of civilian merchant ships, fishing boats, Coast Guard vessels, and anything else capable of ferrying infantry units across the South China Sea, according to a paper by Lonnie Henley,...In such volumes it would be impossible for even an advanced military to defeat them all  19FortyFive, 2023-9-21: China is building a powerful military to beat America in a war over Taiwan; China is readying for war today. China's military has practiced deploying Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers    

  Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues
news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues

Advantages  including geography and climate.
Challenges (1)  the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan.
(2) 
Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  At a societal level, it is not clear what costs in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear
.

The Hill, 2023-9-19: The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan and the rules-based international order  1945, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon) China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces  Military, 2023-9-13: We lost the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing our frailties, Xi will persist in pressuring Taiwan to dissolve from within, while employing military provocations to test America's martial resolve ... By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan    Daily Express, 2023-9-9: China has reached the "height of its power" which may prompt Beijing to launch an invasion of Taiwan, former National Security Advisor John Bolton exclusively told Daily Express US; the United States was not ready ... - something which Beijing would see as an “opportunity”  American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029.  Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux.   AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation.  Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island.  No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-30: Ramaswamy says after America’s rapid semiconductor renaissance, Taiwan can fend for itself.  I am not going to send our sons and daughters to die over that conflict. Daily Express, 2023-8-27: China sparks major war fears as dozens of aircraft and vessels either crossed the median line of the sensitive Taiwan Strait or breached Taiwan's air defence identification zone in a major escalation. Former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Matt Shoemaker told Daily Express US the chances new military packages will repel an invasion are low. The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel Washington Examiner, 2023-8-22: China boasts record-high military recruitment, if military aid (Taiwan war) is needed, America's sagging recruitment numbers could be a problem.  

Taiwan presidency -  Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition)

BBC, 2023-8-29 Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.
Economist, 2023-8-29 The opposition would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect.
Washington Post, 2023-8-28 Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.
Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25 analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics.
Reuters, 2023-8-28 Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of office.
AP, The Hill, 2023-8-28 Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency. He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote,“I will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”.  He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote

 Daily Express, 2023-8-20:  Taiwan under threat as China sends fighter jets and warships with nations on brink of war   The Conversation, 2023-8-16: According to  some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price (Ukraine is paying a heavy price in terms of  lost lives and a shattered economy) to preserve its political autonomy. New York Times, news brief 2023-8-14: A Taiwanese presidential contender (Lai Ching-te) walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future.  Daily Mail, 2023-8-18: China rehearses invasion of Taiwan with troops storming 'sea defences' in chilling wargames - while Beijing and Russia stage joint naval exercises in the Pacific the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly. New York Times, 2023-8-8: For the most part, Taiwanese people seem to be at ease with their Chinese heritage. In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood.   The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action Washington Post, 2023-7-29: U.S. to provide up to $345 million in military aid to Taiwan;  a defense analyst in Taiwan was skeptical of the aid package and pointed to “serious delays in recent years in the delivery of numerous U.S. arms sales” to Taiwan. Bloomberg, 2023-7-29: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines have said they don't see an effort by China to seize Taiwan by force as imminent Washington Examiner, 2023-7-24:  China and Russia train together to sink US submarines the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side.   Financial Times, 2023-7-23: Washington is reducing some long-term deployments in the Indo-Pacific,...the US's decision to help Ukraine only with weapons and the wavering of some European countries about support for Kyiv do not bode well for Taiwan   Daily Express, 2023-7-23: Japan says:  If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan...the government would need to first secure the support of the population before intervening.  

Fox News, 2023-7-28  
The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler

BBC, 2023-7-21: Much of the #MeToo focus is still on sexual harassment, and "large-scale exposure" of sexual assault is yet to happen, that can only happen with more resources legal and counselling support from the state.   The government must extend the statute of limitations for prosecuting sexual harassment cases, which is currently six months.   ResponsibleStatecraft.org, 2023-7-17: War with China over Taiwan? Don't expect US allies (Japan, Australia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) to join   Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the US will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will enable Australia to conduct operations such as anti-submarine warfare against China's subsurface fleet. Similarly, Japan will acquire counterstrike capabilities, which will include purchasing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These would allow Japan to target China's missile launchers and command-and-control sites that would be key to an invasion of Taiwan. But there is uncertainty over not just the kind of support allies would provide, but over whether they would provide any at all.    Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”  West Point, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war, and  highlights a fundamental component of warfare that applies to an attempted Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan—that the war will be won or lost by land forces on the ground.  NEWS Australia, 2023-7-12:  Taiwan considers reviving nuclear power plants due to the threat of China  

National Interest, 2023-7-16    -   Willing to fight ?

China Taiwan
a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ...  another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites.  Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.

  Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: Taiwan's dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield"    le Monde, 2023-7-5:  many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, the professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern ◆  NPR, 2023-7-3:  More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation.  ResponsibleStateCraft.org, 2023-7-3: Taiwan's total trade increased to $907 billion in 2022 from $508.4 billion in 2016. While 39 percent of Taiwanese exports went to China and Hong Kong last year    Economist, 2023-6-29:   if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little.   National Interest, 2023-6-29:  it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward...   TIME, 2023-6-26:  Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves  The Diplomat, 2023-6-27:  Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan’s military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. it could require  potentially several months – for the US to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to ... fight a major contingency in East Asia.  NPR.org, 2023-6-22:  the Council on Foreign Relations says that the U.S. and China are 'drifting toward a war' over Taiwan.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-22: Can sanctions threat deter china from invading Taiwan? The answer, according to a new st