|
♦♦♦
Beijing's coercion without violence
♦♦♦
Taiwan should worry Trump
♦♦♦
invasion of Taiwan
♦♦♦
China's spy war
♦♦♦
Trump's tariff&trade
war
♦♦♦
Taiwan's
defense
♦♦♦
others
|
Taiwan has reasons to worry about
Trump |
|
◆
Washington Post, 2025-7-23 |
Trump's views about Taiwan are unclear,
... Some fear that in trying to make a broad trade
agreement with Xi, Trump could put Taiwan on the table. |
|
◆
WSWS.org, 2025-7-21 |
In reality, just as it actively provoked Russia into
invading Ukraine, the US under both Biden and Trump has
sought to goad China into using its military to take over Taiwan. Formally, the
US still abides by the “One China” policy; but
Washington has been systemically undermining that policy by dispensing with
associated diplomatic protocols, arming Taiwan with offensive weapons and
stationing US troops on the island. Washington
plans to transform Taiwan into an Asian Ukraine as a means of triggering a
conflict, destabilising China and
subordinating it to the economic and strategic interests
of US. |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-7-23 |
Lai is treading a fine line in
negotiations with the US, needing to maintain good relations with the country
that provides key security guarantees without angering domestic constituencies,
including the farming sector. Taiwan's growing reliance on sales to
the US market has intensified its need to bring down tariffs. |
|
◆
Taipei Times,
2025-7-14 |
Trump's foreign
policy is less about strategy than instinct. Trump approaches diplomacy as a
real estate mogul might: transactional, impulsive, and often devoid of
historical context. For Taiwan, Can it continue to rely on a US security
umbrella under a president who has questioned the value of NATO, threatened to
pull US troops from South Korea, and hinted in the past at making deals with
China at Taiwan's expense? |
|
◆◆The
Telegraph (UK), 2025-7-15 |
the Australian prime minister says
that his country would not join a “hypothetical” conflict with China over
Taiwan.
President
Donald Trump has echoed this position, while also pushing for Taiwan to do its
own part to protect itself. |
|
◆◆The
PRINT, 2025-7-16 |
Trump has adopted an “America First”
approach and is increasingly less keen on spending money to defend foreign
countries. US Vice President J.D. Vance recently declared in a commencement address at the
US Naval Academy that US under President Donald Trump will “choose carefully when
to use military force” and “will avoid involvement in
open-ended conflicts” . Not exactly encouraging for
Taiwan if they are depending on the US joining a
potential fray.
msn.com/en-in/news/world/a-look-at-the-diplomatic-dance-over-taiwan-as-us-presses-allies-for-clarity-amid-china-flex/ar-AA1ICrtd?ocid=BingNewsVerp |
|
◆◆Lowy
Institute, 2025-7-14 |
An AUKUS ultimatum for
Australia over Taiwan could undermine the Australia
alliance it aims to strengthen. Rather than being the
actions of a rogue official, it's clear that the Trump
administration is intending to pressure the Albanese government publicly. Anadolu Agency,
2025-7-14: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Canberra does not support any one-sided
move on Taiwan as Washington calls for clarity on Australia's stance |
|
◆◆National
Defense magazine, 2025-7-14 |
Lack of U.S. participation in Taiwan military exercise a concern, experts say:
The United States’ absence from Han Kuang not only limits its effectiveness,
but also incurs heavy costs in the event of an actual invasion scenario, they
said. Despite apparent bipartisan support for
Taiwan's defense, to domestic considerations. “Each
politician has got their own constituent to think about”. |
|
◆◆Taipei
Times, 2025-7-14 |
Under a president whose loyalty to
democratic norms is ambiguous and whose geopolitical thinking centers on
short-term leverage, Taiwan could easily become a pawn in a larger bargain — or
worse, left to fend for itself. Trump has previously oscillated between fiery
rhetoric on China and overtures of camaraderie with Chinese President Xi Jinping
(習近平). His unpredictability breeds confusion in Taipei, and, perhaps more
dangerously, could encourage miscalculation in Beijing.
Taiwan must avoid putting all its eggs in Washington's
basket, especially when that basket is being carried by a man who has repeatedly
broken with tradition, institutions, and norms.
taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2025/07/14/2003840240 |
|
◆◆BBC,
2025-7-9 |
doubt
grows in Taiwan that the US under Donald Trump would intervene militarily in the
event of a Chinese attack; The US is compelled by legislation to help Taiwan defend itself, but Trump has
been ambiguous about this and recently refused
to comment on whether he would stop China from taking Taiwan by force. |
|
◆
Council on Foreign
Relations,
2025-7-8 |
as the PLA expands its capabilities and
increases the intensity of its activities around Taiwan, China's
chances of prevailing were improving. Taiwan’s defense officials also expressed heightened concern. One unnamed
official told the Financial
Times that China's rocket force and air force
were now able to switch from peacetime to wartime operations in the Taiwan
Strait at “any time” without warning. |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-7-7 |
Taiwan depends on political and
military support from the United States to help resist pressure from Beijing.
Mr. Trump has demanded that Taiwan drastically raise its own military spending,
Officials in Taiwan have committed to a slight increase in military
spending |
|
◆
ekathimerini (Greece),
2025-7-3 |
Though the US Congress, the Pentagon, and
much of Trump’s Ccabinet remain staunch China hawks, Chinese leaders see the
president's isolationist tendencies and personal
disinterest in Taiwan as a sign that US backlash to gray-zone moves may be
muted. But Trump is nothing if not unpredictable... |
|
◆
Japan's
Mainichi (每日新聞),
2025-6-25 |
Taiwanese trust in the US
is surprisingly low. According to the latest survey by the Japan-Taiwan Exchange
Association, only 3 percent
like the U.S.; many people doubt whether
Washington will really help in cross-strait contingencies. The second-term Trump
administration's tariff policy toward Taiwan has been strict, and consideration
for Taipei's national security needs has remained lacking. |
|
◆
Economist,
2025-6-10 |
It does not help that Mr Trump has long scoffed at Taiwan's prospects in a fight
with China. And if America stays aloof, no other power will take up arms in
Taiwan's defence. Britain and
Germany were chided by other American officials for sending warships through
the Taiwan Strait to uphold the freedom of navigation. |
|
◆
Atlantic Council,
2025-6-9 |
The
US TRANSCOM has revealed reduced
capacity and greater cracks in the United States’ sustainment
strategy. This combination of reduced warning and response poses serious risks
to the United States’ ability to deter a forceful resolution across the Taiwan
Strait. |
|
◆◆National
Security Journal,
2025-6-5 |
Brent Eastwood, a
scholar
at American University, George Washington
University, and George Mason University, said
Trump might
not ‘Go to War’ to save Taiwan from a China
invasion.
Trump believes there will be a
diplomatic and political solution, not a military solution to the Taiwan
question. |
|
◆◆The
Guardian,
2025-6-1 |
Trump doesn't know how to deal with China. His cowardice only
makes a war with Taiwan more likely |
|
◆◆New
York Post,
2025-5-29 |
Taiwanese officials are worried their country will have
difficulty
attracting international support should
China
launch an invasion. "in order to stay in
power, Xi will have to possibly use force against Taiwan.” |
|
◆◆NBC
News,
2025-5-30 |
Even as it works with the U.S.,
Taiwan is unsure about the extent of the security commitment from
Washington. Further muddling the picture are comments Trump
has made about Taiwan.
“You have different voices
emerging from the United States, so that creates more uncertainties
for Taiwanese”. |
|
◆◆Reuters,
Bloomberg,
2025-5-30 |
Trump is planning to ramp up
weapons sales to Taiwan to a level exceeding the pace set during his
first term. |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-5-22 |
Some of President Trump's
words and actions on Taiwan — raising tariffs, demanding that it
drastically raise military spending, and accusing Taiwan of stealing the
U.S. lead in making semiconductors — have magnified doubts in Taiwan
about whether the United States would step in if China attacked the
island. |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-5-21 |
Taiwan's president has taken a
tougher stance on China, raising criticism from some
who say it's a risky position since a geopolitically
fickle President Trump may not offer steadfast support
for the island. |
|
◆◆AFP News, Eurasian Times,
2025-5-19
|
foreign affairs have been more
fraught with “a lot of uncertainty” under US President Donald Trump over
Washington's policy towards Taiwan, China, and
the region, David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations said. |
|
◆
National Interest, 2025-5-20 |
Polls repeatedly show that an American majority does not support
fighting for Taiwan |
|
◆
PBS, 2025-5-20 |
Taiwan has never been regarded as a strategically critical location for
the United States in Asia.
|
|
◆◆Reuters,
2025-5-13 |
"They've agreed to open China,
fully open China, and I think it's going to be fantastic for China, I
think it's going to be fantastic for us, and I think it's going to be
great for unification and peace," Trump said,
without mentioning Taiwan.
AIT (a de facto embassy):
"It's clear President Trump was speaking in the context of the
U.S.-China trade relationship". Business
Times (Singapore, 2025-5-13) : Although Trump made no direct
reference to Taiwan, his use of the word "unification"-a term commonly
associated with Beijing's objective of reclaiming sovereignty over the
island-led to unease in Taipei and speculation over whether Washington's
position on cross-strait relations had shifted. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-5-10 |
Taiwan's leaders have embarked on an urgent overhaul of the island's defenses to
prepare for what they see as the possibility of a Chinese invasion by 2027.
Taiwan's deputy foreign minister said:
Taiwan will also need to know if U.S.
forces will show up. |
|
◆◆Economist,
2025-5-1 |
Taiwan's main
backer, America, grows less reliable. Some observers see “flashing warning
lights” that China is preparing to bring about “reunification” by force.
Elbridge Colby has long argued that America
should concentrate on containing China, not least by explicitly guaranteeing
Taiwan's security. Now he says Taiwan is not an
“existential” matter for America and suggests the island cannot be defended at
acceptable cost.
economist.com/briefing/2025/05/01/chinese-military-exercises-foreshadow-a-blockade-of-taiwan |
|
◆◆Brookings,
2025-4-25 |
According to our
survey, across almost all measures, the United States is seen as a less
reliable partner, Taiwan and South Korea both feel less confident that the
United States will assist them in the event of a conflict with their respective
authoritarian neighbor.brookings.edu/articles/the-trump-effect-on-public-attitudes-toward-america-in-taiwan-and-south-korea/ |
|
◆◆Fox
News, 2025-4-23
|
Taiwanese representative to the U.S. Alexander Yui discusses a potential Chinese
invasion; He said it is our house,
we will keep it safe. |
|
◆◆The
Conversation, 2025-4-22 |
With the US now an unreliable ally, proliferation risk is greatest in East
Asia: Japan, South Korea, even Taiwan |
|
◆◆New
York Times, 2025-4-16
|
President Trump has threatened tariffs on Taiwan
and the chip industry. China has signaled it will not let the trade war
keep it from the technology it needs.
Expert at Techcet said,“Everyone
is holding their breath"
nytimes.com/2025/04/16/business/china-taiwan-tariffs-chips.html |
|
◆◆The
WEEK,
2025-4-15 |
Washington's
long-maintained "security relationship" has been "less
than assured" since Donald Trump took office
recently.
"the confusing signals" from America have
left "Taipei wondering where it stands", said The
Washington Post.
|
|
◆◆Newsweek,
2025-4-8 |
Would Donald Trump Defend Taiwan?
Even as Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. priority is the Indo Pacific, the U.S.
military is focused on the Middle East, and there have been reports that the
U.S. THAAD battery in Seoul along with two Patriot missile batteries, deployed
elsewhere, were moved to the Middle East. |
|
◆◆New
York Times, 2025-4-1
|
The problem with
president Mr. Lai's approach is that Taiwan can no
longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now
realizing |
|
◆◆Washington
Post,
2025-3-21 |
The U.S. president's transactional approach has unnerved
many in Taiwan.
“We are moving toward conflict
escalation with China, that's for sure,” said a
professor at National Chengchi University. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-3-17 |
Taiwan's military planners signal to Washington the desire for a stable relationship as
anxieties simmer in Taipei about whether President Trump would send help to
defend against a Chinese attack. Trump's recent suspension of U.S. support
for Ukraine heightened
those concerns in Taiwan. |
|
◆◆The
Hill,
2025-3-13 |
Taiwan
president Lai has clearly gotten the message that he must
increase defense spending in a world where the U.S. appears
increasingly likely to leave small powers to fend for themselves.
|
|
◆◆Eurasian Times,
2025-3-1 |
Same Playbook! just like the
Ukraine minerals deal, the U.S. seeks to secure Taiwan's
semiconductor technology through the TSMC-Intel
deal. The
agreements conspicuously lack one crucial element—security
guarantees in both cases. |
|
◆◆TIME,
2025-2-27 |
University of London
expert says: I haven't
seen any evidence that Trump cares much about Taiwan.
Nanyang Technological University scholar says:
China may be able to
take Taiwan “without too much U.S. interference” if Beijing is able to
strike a similar deal with Washington. |
|
◆ New
York Times,
2025-2-25 |
Taiwan
watches Trump undercut Ukraine,
hoping it
won't
be next.
In Taiwan, Mr. Trump’s stinging comments about Ukraine could feed a
current of public
opinion arguing that the island has been repeatedly abandoned by
Washington and cannot trust its promises. |
|
◆ The
Guardian, 2025-2-21 |
Taiwan holds its breath as Trump turns on Ukraine and
upends US foreign policy. The Trump
administration has already demonstrated that it is willing to suddenly
and without warning break from decades of bipartisan US policy on China. |
|
◆ Washington
Post, 2025-2-18 |
Each statement by Trump that
degrades the principle that territorial boundaries must not be redrawn
by force or coercion might embolden China on Taiwan. political
scientist Graham Allison : “Taiwan will be depreciated in the
triangular relationship”,“I see no evidence whatever that [Trump]
believes the U.S. has any vital interest in Taiwan.” |
|
◆ The
Guardian,
2025-2-21 |
Taiwan holds its breath as a
withdrawal of American support here would spark an existential crisis. “The Trump administration has already
demonstrated that it is willing to suddenly and without warning
break from decades of bipartisan US policy on China,” says
head at ASPI. Worries about Trump's “lukewarm” view of
Taiwan are becoming more obvious ...says professor at Taiwan's National ChengChi university. |
|
◆
NY Times, 2025-2-13 |
some hard-line hawks on Taiwan
have been left out, “It looks like Taiwan bet
on some of the wrong horses.” ; Elbridge Colby
warned that Taiwan should not assume that it was indispensable to the
United States. |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-2-14 |
Taiwan President pledged to boost military spending
to 3% of GDP;
Trump suggested the archipelago should devote 10%
of GDP to its armed forces. The extra
funds for defense would be secured through a special budget, Lai said.
Such a move would require the cooperation of opposition lawmakers
because they control the legislature. |
|
◆
Brookings,
2025-2-12 |
Trump
said in 2021, if China invades Taiwan, “there isn't
a f—ing thing we can do about it.” |
|
◆
Fox
News,
2025-2-7 |
Trump's comments on the campaign trail suggest that he would
not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in
defense of the island democracy. |
|
◆
Politico (EU),
2025-1-30 |
President Donald
Trump's threat to use military force
to take control of Greenland and Panama has spooked Taiwan.
This could embolden Beijing to apply that same logic to pursuing
its claims to Taiwan. |
|
◆
National
Interest,
2025-1-13 |
Why Trump Won't Defend Taiwan
- Waging World War III for Taiwan—or any small nation, for that matter—would not
be in keeping with the predilections and preferences of the incoming US
president. |
|
◆
The
Telegraph,
2025-1-13 |
Donald Trump has appointed a number of
hawkish foreign policy advisers to his transition team. However, he has pledged not to allow the
US to become involved in foreign wars. |
|
◆
Newsweek,
2025-1-3 |
Trump, who positioned himself as being tough
on China, has suggested he would
not defend Taiwan from China. |
|
◆
The
Hill,
2025-1-7 |
Lyle Goldstein, a professor at Brown
University said the cost of a war with China is
“incalculable” and would at the very least sow mass destruction in Taiwan and
the South China Sea region. |
|
◆
Voice
of America,
2024-12-26 |
Taiwan seeks clarity on Trump team policy amid Chinese pressure.
There is still quite a bit of resistance not only within the
security apparatus and armed forces, which don't
like the idea of involving citizens in defense, the opposition parties
have also sought to derail [relevant] plans and fundings.
What may come next depends on Taiwan's
actions and Beijing's
assessment of Trump's
policies toward the island after he takes office.
|
|
◆
Insider,
2024-12-26 |
Trump's
next undersecretary of defense policy,
Elbridge Colby,
once called for the destruction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company's chip plants if China takes over Taiwan.
In Feb.,
Colby said "disabling or destroying TSMC is table stakes" if China
invades Taiwan.
The US and its allies can't afford to allow China to "have
such dominance over global semiconductors," he wrote
in 2023. |
|
●
pic.:
No.1
"comment Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia ,
2025-7-18,
2025-7-9,
2025-7-1,
2025-6-22,
2025-5-31,
2025-5-11,
2025-4-27,
2025-3-30,
2025-3-19,
2025-3-3,
2025-2-22,
2025-2-16,
2025-2-5,
2025-1-1,
2024-12-25,
2024-12-24,
2024-12-12,
2024-12-2,
2024-10-28,
2024-10-9,
2024-9-15,
2024-8-31,
2024-8-8,
2024-7-11,
2024-5-12,
2024-4-14,
2024-3-19,
2024-2-28,
2024-2-16,
2024-1-20,
2024-1-1,
2023-12-24,
2023-12-14,
2023-11-11,
2023-11-1,
2023-10-10, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-22, 2023-7-25, 2023-7-3, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-23, 2023-4-6, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-12, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-22, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-31, 2022-10-13, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-12, 2022-9-5,
2022-8-20,
2022-8-13,
2022-8-7,
2022-7-18,
2022-7-7,
2022-7-1,
2022-6-25,
2022-6-10, 2022-6-7, 2022-6-1, 2022-5-23, 2022-4-16, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-1, 2022-1-30,
2022-1-25,
2022-1-11,
2022-1-1,
2021-11-21,
2021-10-23, 2021-10-20, 2021-10-3, 2021-6-27,
8-13-2020,
8-5-2020,
6-12-2020,
5-21-2020,
2-28-2020,
1-17-2020,
1-11-2020,
12-18-2019, 12-1-2019, 11-26-2019, 11-7-2019
|
|
|
|
about China's
ability to invade Taiwan
|
 |
♣ Council on
Foreign Relations (2025-5-20): Chinese state-run media responded to
William Lai's speech labeling China as "foreign hostile force"
by publishing a cartoon depicting Taiwan
president William Lai Ching-te as a green parasite, while Taiwan
was depicted on fire, surrounded by Chinese military platforms.
♣ PBS (2025-4-3):The U.S. says China's exercises are practice
for a blockade of Taiwan. Part of those exercises, this cartoon.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is a parasite who will be barbecued as
Chinese weapons strangle Taiwan.
♣ European Council on Foreign
Relations (2025-6-6):
Alongside the drill,
the PLA released a series of posters and animated videos.
One video depicted
Lai as a parasite squeezed between a pair of chopsticks above a burning
Taiwan. It accused the Taiwanese government of colluding with foreign
forces—an unusually explicit targeting of the country’s political
leadership.
♣ CNN (2025-4-1): China's PLA
released a series of propaganda videos after announcing the latest
drills, including one that depicts Lai Ching-te as a green cartoon bug
and calls him a “parasite” hollowing out the island.
♣ The Telegraph (2025-4-1): PLA showed Mr Lai as a green insect
who appears to give birth to other insects, before being held by
chopsticks above a burning Taiwan. “Parasite poisoning Taiwan island.
Parasite hollowing island out. Parasite courting ultimate
destruction.”Taiwan Defense Minister said: "such rhetoric was not
conducive to peace and “shows their provocative character” |
|
|
◆
The Strategist, 2025-7-21 |
China could conceal preparations for an invasion by framing it as a large-scale
joint exercise... the opening phase would be a massive missile
barrage targeting Taiwan's airbases, radar stations, naval ports and command centres. Simultaneously, China's air force would launch waves of fighters,
drones and bombers to suppress Taiwan's air defences.
If the US decided to intervene, the world could quickly find itself on
the brink of a global conflict. |
|
◆ The
Telegraph, 2025-7-15 |
There used to be approximately 100,000 troops stationed on Kinmen
Island, but over the years this number has decreased to the 3,000 or so
here today – hardly enough to defend the island against China's
strength. a
general had said troops
should ‘hide in the mountains to avoid escalating the battle’...‘It
would not be a priority for Taipei to send troops’ |
|
◆ BBC,
2025-7-17 |
"There is just too big a difference in the strengths of China and
Taiwan's militaries," said a citizen "There is no use
defending ourselves against an attack." |
|
◆
The Telegraph, 2025-7-9 |
Taiwan, a country of 23 million people, has
180,000 soldiers and as many as 1.67 million reservists. China has more than two million active soldiers and
1.2 million reservists. China's PLA significantly exceeds Taiwan across every metric.
China has more than six times the number of tanks and aircraft than
Taiwan, and nearly five times more artillery. War game simulations have
shown that if Taiwan faces Beijing alone, or if the country
surrenders before the U.S. is able to assist, it would be
overwhelmed in a very short time. |
|
◆ BBC, 2025-7-9 |
Taiwan's military and defence has come under criticism both domestically and externally in
recent years. One survey last year showing only 47.5% have
confidence in their defence capabilities. |
|
◆
Council on Foreign
Relations,
2025-7-8 |
A U.S. official remarked that the PLA Navy and China’s Coast Guard
maintain a constant presence of approximately a dozen ships surrounding Taiwan,
and that the PLA Navy could “move into a blockade posture . . . in a matter of
hours.” The presence of Chinese warships and aircraft carriers in the waters
around Taiwan is such that a full-scale Chinese air assault against Taiwan would
also be possible without warning. |
|
◆
New York Times,
2025-6-26 |
China has about
3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a
fast-expanding navy. |
|
◆
New York Times,
2025-5-6 |
China's
military is now the world's largest armed force
and rivals the
United States in air, naval and missile power. |
|
◆
Telegraph,
2025-6-24 |
the leader of Nato said:
“The Chinese will try anything with Taiwan.” |
|
◆
Reuters,
2025-6-17 |
Taiwan's armed forces are dwarfed by those of China, which has two operational
aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines and is developing stealth
fighter jets. |
|
◆
Strategy Page,
2025-6-12 |
PLA's key operation would be seizing
enough of the 60 Penghu Islands to hold more S-300 batteries and enough soldiers
to guard them. Once on the Penghu’s, the S-300 batteries would dominate the
skies over most of Taiwan. |
|
◆
Atlantic Council,
2025-6-9 |
The PLA is “stretching
their legs” to meet President Xi Jinping's
2027 military readiness goal of being capable of taking Taiwan by force.
|
|
◆
The Hill,
2025-6-10 |
China’s next war ‘could be imminent’ and
spread fast. War is coming to East Asia, and Taiwan — to which Hegseth was referring. |
|
◆◆The
Guardian,
2025-6-1 |
China already has
sufficient capability
to invade now, with amphibious landing craft, D-day-style floating docks,
paratroopers and expanded air combat and missile forces in a constant state of
readiness. |
|
◆◆Daily
Express (UK),
2025-6-2 |
China stockpiling nukes and could team up with Russia to grab Taiwan,
there’s uncertainty over how far the US 'nuclear umbrella' really
stretches - and whether America would act in defence of Alaska, Hawaii, Guam
or its Pacific allies. |
|
◆◆Bloomberg,
2025-6-2 |
China escalated military pressure around
the region, deploying dozens of warships and government vessels daily in what it
described as an extreme pressure campaign. |
|
◆◆NBC
News,
2025-5-30 |
it is difficult
for Taiwan to build a modern fighting force,
Ministry of Defense spokesperson said, in the
face of “inherently disproportionate” threats from China, whose
2.8-million-strong military is more
than 18 times larger than Taiwan's number of active-duty
personnel. |
|
◆◆New
York Post,
2025-5-29 |
INDSR research fellow: “China supports Russia in its war. And
the day when China invades Taiwan, and how will Russia support or help
China?"; many experts or analysts think that
maybe Xi Jinping and Putin already formed some agreement. |
|
◆◆Financial Times,
2025-5-26 |
China has increased its ability to
launch a sudden attack on Taiwan with faster-paced air and operations, new
artillery systems and more alert amphibious and air assault units
ft.com/content/c82eb38e-87cb-4468-b013-0f7fce0fc54b |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-5-22 |
Taiwan defense chief:
“If China can be made to understand that the potential costs would be
extremely, extremely high, then that will make it extremely hard for it to make
a decision” |
|
◆◆AFP News, Eurasian Times,
2025-5-19 |
Analysts said the ongoing hostility between the DPP and KMT was eroding
public confidence in Taiwan's political institutions, bolstering Beijing's
narrative that Taiwanese people would be better off as part of China.
Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years, deploying
fighter jets and warships on a near-daily basis and staging several
large-scale drills around the island since Lai took office. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-5-14 |
Beijing's
new ships can land on beaches and link to form massive mobile piers. Analysts
say they're intended to rapidly offload military
equipment, setting the stage for a D-Day-style invasion... |
|
◆◆Daily
Mail,
2025-5-7 |
China is at a 'rapid boil' in its
preparations for a military attack on Taiwan,
said Admiral Samuel Paparo, heading up the US Indo-Pacific
Command |
|
◆◆Economist,
2025-5-1 |
Recent China's
military exercises deployed in a “cabbage strategy” to wrap Taiwan in layers of
forces. A blockade could provoke an American military
response without forcing Taiwan to surrender. That is why a quarantine is more
likely. |
|
◆
Asia
Times, 2025-4-21 |
New non-nuclear bomb's
high-temperature fireball and deadly shockwave anticipates urban warfare
scenario in Taiwan |
|
◆◆The
Hill,
2025-4-19 |
The
commander of the U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command, gave
testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee: In
2024, the People's Liberation Party demonstrated
growing capabilities through persistent pressure operations with military
pressure against Taiwan increasing by 300%”, “China's increasingly
aggressive actions near Taiwan are not just exercises, they are rehearsals”. |
|
◆◆The
Insider,
2025-4-19 |
The
commander of the U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command: China could stop US airpower
from achieving air superiority in the first island chain, China's fighter fleet,
bombers, and missiles are enough to cause problems.
"their advanced long-range air-to-air missiles also present a tremendous
threat.". Researchers have said that China
could more easily devastate American airpower than the other way around. |
|
◆
New
York Post, 2025-4-10
|
Beijing insists will be annexed in the coming years.
China acknowledges
its role in years of cyberattacks against US over support of Taiwan |
|
◆
Newsweek, 2025-4-8
|
three likely Chinese actions in The
Federalist: a full-scale blockade to pressure Taiwan economically; a
lightning strike to achieve a fait accompli before Washington can respond; or a
wider regional attack involving U.S. bases in Guam, Japan, or the Philippines.
China is engaged in the largest military buildup in modern
times, focusing on sea power, amphibious assault capabilities, long-range
missiles, and nuclear weapons |
|
◆
Associated
Press, 2025-4-11
|
China, North Korea and Russia military cooperation raises threats
in the Pacific, US official warns |
|
◆
Daily
Express, 2025-3-21
|
Coupled with news about revision of PLA
recruitment, the hoarding of huge stockpiles of grains, as well as building
more nuclear missile silos, the barges surely indicate China is gearing up
for at least the possibility of an invasion or a blockade of Taiwan |
|
◆
SUN
(UK), 2025-3-14
|
China to exploit
Trump's New World Order with ‘perfect moment’ to strike Taiwan using
invasion barges & 1.2m troops.
Beijing is
already shown signs of preparations for a potential war |
|
◆
RFI
(France), 2025-2-23 |
In reality, Taiwan would be massively outgunned in terms of troop
numbers and firepower in any war with China. |
|
◆
Council
on Foreign Relations, 2025-1-15 |
A top concern among U.S. security analysts is that China's growing
military capabilities and assertiveness, as well as the deterioration in
cross-strait relations, could spark a conflict that leads to a
U.S.-China confrontation. |
|
◆
Financial
Times,
2025-1-13 |
Taiwan's long stretches of the
coast comprise cliffs, reefs and rocks, while the flatter western seaboard is
lined with mudflats. China
building new mobile piers could help possible Taiwan invasion;
But military experts said a Chinese invasion force would still struggle to advance through
Taiwan's western plains, which are densely packed with
paddy fields, fish ponds and urban sprawl, with wide roads often hard to reach
from shore. |
|
◆
Wall Street Journal,
2025-1-3 |
In addition to unleashing its full military power, Beijing would be expected to
use a variety of economic strategies in a showdown over Taiwan.
A 2023
study by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council concluded that Beijing has been more systematic in preparing such defenses than
Russia was to counter Western sanctions. |
|
◆
USNI
News, 2024-12-19 |
The Pentagon's
report recognizes that China has “both the
will and capability to alter the international order in its favor” |
|
◆
Financial
Times, 2024-12-13 |
US nuclear build-up would not help deter China from using atomic weapons in
Taiwan, war game finds.
...only five of 15
iterations of the nuclear game ended with a withdrawal of the PLA. |
|
◆
Economist, 2024-12-5 |
The
views (the period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out
for several years)
are not universally shared, in or out of government.
“Xi has his foot firmly on the accelerator and a full tank
of gas". |
|
◆
Washington Examiner, 2024-12-13 |
Beijing seems to have a strategy —
will exploit both Washington's inability to focus and its depleted
industrial base. |
|
◆
CNN, 2024-12-15 |
Trump's
remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its
critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace,
that could affect the island's economic security and
dismantle the very “silicon shield” ... |
|
◆
Washington Examiner, 2024-12-4 |
Chinese leaders have said they want their military to be prepared to
invade Taiwan by 2027.
War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles
"very rapidly",
national security adviser
J. Sullivan
acknowledged that China has
"the
single biggest advantage",
"God forbid we end up in a
full-scale war with the PRC" . |
|
The Beiping model:
coercion
without violence |
|
◆
Brookings 2025-5-12 |
Beijing has been pursuing an unrelenting campaign of
“coercion
without violence.” Beijing is
working to wear down the confidence of the people of Taiwan in their own future.
These tactics include
persistent visible military pressure, economic inducements and penalties,
diplomatic pressure, covert operations, organized crime, cyber operations, and disinformation.brookings.edu/articles/can-the-us-and-taiwan-advance-a-shared-vision/ |
|
◆
Lowy Institute
Australia, 2025-5-15 |
The Beiping model:
Victory can be achieved through the slow erosion of
political cohesion, economic independence, and societal
confidence; The signs are already visible.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/beiping-model-how-china-could-absorb-taiwan-without-war
|
|
◆
Brookings,
2025-2-12 |
China's
strategy of “coercion without violence” includes
cyber intrusions, economic coercion, influence operations, organized crime,
united front activities, and ceaseless and intensifying military pressure
surrounding Taiwan. In other words, Beijing
is taking a full spectrum of actions... |
◊
|
Taiwan has already lost its
China spy war |
|
◆◆Strategist
(Australia), 2025-7-21 |
The activation of a fifth column to incite civil unrest across
Taiwan could be highly effective. It could debilitate Taipei's ability to govern
and maintain stability, potentially by exploiting existing fault lines in
Taiwanese politics. This could provide Beijing with a pretext to deploy what it
might call stabilisation forces. A fifth column could plausibly target critical
infrastructure, disrupting power grids, railways, air traffic control and water
treatment facilities. Bomb threats, arson attacks and incitement of riots would
further destabilise society. Combined with Beijing's
formidable cyber capabilities, China could sow chaos and division
|
|
◆◆Eurasian
Times, 2025-7-5 |
The CCP's
campaign is not an external nuisance—it is a systemic infection reaching the top
echelons of Taiwan's defense and political leadership.
a long-term espionage network carefully cultivated by Beijing, one
capable not only of collecting intelligence but also of compromising Taiwan’s
command structure and critical infrastructure in a crisis. |
|
◆◆War
On The Rocks, 2025-6-25 |
China might have a way to combine old
tools — such as spies, fifth columns, and saboteurs — with newer capabilities
pre-staged before the fighting starts — like drones and malware — to overwhelm
and paralyze the country. |
|
◆◆Washington
Post,
2025-3-28 |
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president's office were spying for China.
The presidential office should be the most secure place,
this shows how severe China's
infiltration is in Taiwan;
Taiwan's
sentencing on espionage activities has been too lenient. |
|
◆◆Washington
Examiner, 2025-3-25
|
Taiwan's
defense and security structures are so deeply penetrated by Chinese spies
that Beijing knows everything about its plans to deter aggression by the
People's
Liberation Army, including American defense and intelligence secrets.
At this point, any secrets Washington shares with our Taiwanese
partners stand a high chance of winding up in Chinese Communist hands.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/3357074/taiwan-has-already-lost-its-china-spy-war |
|
◆◆Stanford
Review,
2025-2-24 |
Taiwan's military is dilapidated.
Reports of Chinese espionage and infiltration are commonplace throughout
Taiwan's
military and civil society. |
◊
|
Trump's tariffs & trade war |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-7-23 |
Taiwan
president Lai is treading a fine line in
negotiations with the US, needing to maintain good relations with the country
that provides key security guarantees without angering domestic constituencies,
including the farming sector. Taiwan's growing reliance on sales to
the US market has intensified its need to bring down tariffs. |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2025-7-7 |
The sale of tech equipment to China is likely to be a
continuing source of friction, and negotiation, for Taiwan in its
dealings with the Trump administration. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-6-9 |
Taiwan exports
growth nears 15-Year
high on likely frontloading as tariff uncertainty
continues. Taiwan expects exports to contract in the second half, citing
“escalating trade protectionism and heightened policy uncertainty.” |
|
◆
Foreign Affairs, 2025-5-20 |
The trade war could make a shooting war seem more
appealing to Beijing. |
|
◆ The
Week, 2025-4-15 |
Increasing economic dependence on
the US "could placate Mr Trump", said The Spectator, but "experience
shows that it could just become a way for Trump to exert more pressure
in the future" |
|
◆
Washington Post, 2025-4-9 |
Tariffs put Taiwan on shaky ground with U.S., may open door for China.
Taiwan can't afford to take on Beijing
and Washington at the same time, Taiwanese professor
at NCCU said. The U.S. aims to push other countries into
negotiations through raising the tariffs, hoping they'll
buy more American goods and services |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2025-4-3 |
The Taiwanese government
condemned the tariffs as unreasonable and unfair to Taiwan. The
government would lodge a strong protest...The
chip companies in Taiwan, the center of the global supply chain, are
expected to face pressure from Washington to invest more in the U.S. |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-3-14
|
Tariff threats - Taiwan
companies, master craftsmen of the world's electronics, have
sprung to the vanguard of shifting manufacturing to the US.
Smaller Taiwanese companies are following suit. |
|
◆
CNN, 2025-3-14
|
TSMC
paying Trump a $100 billion
‘protection fee’reignited fears
and resignation in Taiwan about losing its crown jewel.
An economist at the
University of Chicago: TSMC and others will
have to “do whatever they can to make Trump happy.” But the
risk is “Once you agree to blackmail, then there's
no end of it” |
|
◆
NPR, 2025-3-12
|
Taiwanese chip giant's investments in U.S. stir 'silicon
shield' security worries and divide politics in
Taiwan. TSMC chairman is
facing a dilemma, because on one hand, he needs to meet the
needs of the Trump administration. On the other hand, he
needs to assure the Taiwanese people that we'll be safe. |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2025-3-6
|
Taiwan's
president tries
to ease fears
and criticism
over TSMC's investment
in the US. TSMC’s
CEO implies that the
company was not bending to political pressure.
Not everyone in Taiwan is convinced.
What has Taiwan gained in
return? a KMT lawmaker said. |
|
◆
Reuters, 2025-3-4 |
TSMC's
$100 bln gamble jeopardises 'Taiwan First'.
TSMC committed to set
up a major research and development centre stateside,
despite an earlier assurance from boss C.C. Wei to keep
innovation on the company's home island. That's a threat to
Taiwan in multiple ways. The
enormous disruption that military conflict would inflict on
global semiconductor supply chains is a core part of the
deterrence. But the more that TSMC replicates its business
offshore, the more this protection will erode. |
|
◆
Politico, 2025-3-3 |
Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC announces new $100B investment in
US; CEO C.C. Wei credited
President Donald Trump for the investments
TSMC agreed to build a factory in the U.S. to cut
reliance on geopolitically risky Taiwan during Trump’s first
term. |
|
◆
Global Times, 2025-3-4 |
Taiwanese critics
claim TSMC “has become USMC”,
calling the move “yet another example of the Democratic
Progress Party (DPP, the ruling party) selling out Taiwan.” |
|
Taiwan's
defense
|
|
◆
Real Clear
Defense, 2025-5-5 |
A Taiwan Strait war wouldn’t be measured in months. It would be
decided in days. The U.S. won’t have time to surge exquisite assets across the
Pacific... |
|
◆
Deutsche Welle (DW),
2025-5-5 |
Energy would be Beijing's first target in
case of a blockade or invasion. The water supply is
powered by electricity, communication
is based on electricity and the military would not be able to function
without it. |
|
◆
PBS,
2025-4-3 |
Privately, Taiwanese officials
admit they're not ready for the Chinese army |
|
◆
New
York Times,
2025-2-25 |
Mr.
Trump said Taiwan was spending far too little on its military and
was too complacent about the United States coming to its rescue in a war |
|
◆
The Guardian,
2025-2-21 |
many analysts believe a
large part of Taiwan's protection
strategy comes from keeping production of its most advanced
chips – which form 90% of the world's
supply – onshore. Bonnie Glaser:
But Taiwan will likely face pressure from Trump to
accede to his demands.” |
|
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2025-2-22 |
Taiwan must “adopt a new military culture”
akin to that of Israel, turning itself into a warrior-state—or “a porcupine”...
“...enough rifles, pistols, and
ammunition such that each member of the military, reserves, and civil defense
force has emergency access to a personal weapon.” |
|
◆
Stanford
Review, 2025-2-24
|
Taiwan's military is dilapidated.
The assumption
of
CSIS's
2023 war game rests on false premises.
Upon closer examination, Taiwan's
military readiness and morale stand on weak foundations.
What money the government does have to spend on
procurement they do so on flashy
items like fighter jets, tanks, and attack helicopters–are reduced to
piles of twisted steel in hours of
an invasion.
stanfordreview.org/the-illusion-of-taiwanese-strength/ |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-1-14 |
Taiwan's military
is
not
prepared
for a Trumpian
World; With
the former president soon back in the White House, Taipei needs to rethink its
defense strategy. |
|
Taiwan
Prepares for Trump's
Return. |
|
◆
Politico, 2024-12-20 |
Taiwan has a plan for Trump's inauguration.
Taiwan is launching a new charm offensive on Washington ──
dispatching a large delegation to Washington for the inauguration,
which underscores how unnerved Taipei is over what Trump's
return to the White House means for the self-governing island.
The
Council on Foreign Relations
David Sacks:
Taiwan is likely to try to address those perceptions by telling
Trump and his team that Taiwan “is taking its defense seriously, that it's
not a free rider.” |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2024-11-24 |
Trump
couldn't
care less about Taiwan... has dismissed us
as a geopolitical
trifle.
More and
more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess
piece,” no longer valued by the United States. |
|
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2024-11-18 |
Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is
at stake, that it
can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in
the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war.
Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45%
of GDP—a lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and
South Korea's 2.7%; In
Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your
seriousness. |
|
◆
New
York Times,
2024-11-6 |
Some
diplomats expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not
invade
Taiwan; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to
war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip
industry from the US.
“With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of
uncertainty,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist, “And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with
great risk for Taiwan.” |
|
◆
Fox
News, 2024-11-10 |
Trump's
public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots
on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny
island democracy (Taiwan). there
is hope among restraint groups
that Trump will be focused on economic
warfare with China – rather than military.
"We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ...
the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. " |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2024-11-10 |
Tump's call for Taiwan to spend more on its own
defense and his complaints about its semiconductor dominance may herald a tenser
relationship. |
|
◆
Business
Insider,
2024-11-9 |
In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will
protect it, or play it. |
|
◆
Washington Post,
2024-11-6 |
Trump's statements this
year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island
democracy's defense and his misleading
assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. |
|
◆
New
York Times,
2024-11-6,
news briefing |
Trump could decide to
do the true “America First” thing and
withdraw completely, and basically say,
"defending Taiwan is not in our interest.”
... |
|
◆
Bloomberg,
2024-11-5 |
Taiwan's
Economic Affairs Minister
acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove
harmful for Taiwan's
semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some
anticipate. |
|
◆ Reuters,
2024-11-6 |
Trump
might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain
leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's
provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's
compromise on trade. |
|
|
|
Delegation of Taiwanese lawmakers
will not be able to attend the inauguration |
|
◆
Radio
Free Asia, 2025-1-20 |
Asia sends top officials to Trump inauguration amid concern
over trade, security
──
Taiwan's delegation led by the speaker of the legislature, Han Kuo-yu, will not
be able to attend the inauguration “due
to space constraints” in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol;
Trump's pre-inauguration talk of taking control of
Greenland and the Panama Canal has triggered a wave of speculation in Chinese
social media that he may be willing to let China take control of democratically
ruled Taiwan.rfa.org/english/asia/2025/01/20/trump-inauguration-lookahead/ |
|
◆
Politico, 2024-12-20 |
Taiwan is launching a new charm offensive on Washington as DONALD
TRUMP takes office, and it all starts at Trump's inauguration.
── underscores how unnerved
Taipei is over what Trump's
return to the White House means for the self-governing island. Taiwan
has been savvy at navigating Washington's
political scene in the past. |
|
China's
largest-ever war games around Taiwan |
|
◆
Fox News, 2024-12-23 |
Taiwan defense officials raised
concerns about a substantial deployment of Chinese naval ships and
military planes, saying the build-up could eventually lead to war as
tensions continue to rise in the region.
China warns US to stop arming Taiwan after Biden approves $571M in
military aid |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2024-12-10 |
Taiwan
says China
has
deployed
largest
fleet of
ships in
decades,
which could block American allies in the region from coming
to Taiwan's defense.
The surge in Chinese ships could
also be a signal to the incoming Trump administration, which has yet to
indicate how it will deal with Taiwan. |
|
◆
Fox News, 2024-12-10 |
After
Taiwanese president visits Hawaii and Guam,
Chinese military makes massive deployment around Taiwan to send
'very simple' message: "The Taiwan Strait is
ours"; Taiwan defense officials are raising
concerns
..., saying the build-up could
eventually lead to war as tensions continue to rise in the area. |
|
◆
AFP, 2024-12-11 |
Taiwan security official : the
sea drills were "significantly larger" than Beijing's
maritime response to then-US House speaker Nancy
Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022, which was China's
largest-ever war games around Taiwan.
China's massive
maritime operation began in October
were aimed at demonstrating that Beijing could
choke off Taiwan and also to "draw a red line" ahead of
the next US administration. |
|
◆
EuroNews, 2024-12-11 |
Taiwan demands
China end recent military activity in nearby waters.
expert: "They were practicing to seal off Taiwan”
, referring to a scenario whereby the Chinese coast
guard ships could block Taiwan's ports while the navy
would form an outer barrier at sea. |
|
◆
Radio France Internationale,
2024-12-11 |
Hopes for
'reunification' a fact of life on
China's window to Taiwan |
|
Taiwan's pres. Lai flies to US, angering China |
|
◆
CNN, 2024-12-1 |
Taiwan's
President Lai Ching-te in Hawaii: A stopover that speaks volumes.
Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing
will respond with military drills near Taiwan.
Taiwan does largely pay for its defense, through billions of
dollars spent on US-made weapons. And unlike Japan, South Korea and the
Philippines, it is not shielded by a mutual defense treaty with the
United States. |
|
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2024-12-1 |
Taiwan's President begins Hawaii stopover
and sends
a firm but conciliatory message to both China and the incoming
Trump administration: While Taipei doesn't
seek a war with Beijing, it is counting on U.S. support to deter any
aggression from its larger neighbor.
"Transits" are part of careful arrangements made between Washington and
Taipei to allow its leaders to engage with each other on American soil
after the two severed formal diplomatic ties in 1979. |
|
◆
Global Times (China) , 2024-12-6 |
Lai Ching-te is compelled to pledge loyalty to the US during his brief
"stopover," said Zheng Jian, a professor at the Taiwan Research Institute of
Xiamen University. |
|
Taiwan's
Lai Ching-te and China's Xi JinPing congratulate Trump |
|
◆ The
Hill, 2024-11-6 |
Taiwan president congratulates Trump on victory.
William Lai Ching-te
posted
on the social platform X. “I'm
confident that the longstanding Taiwan-US partnership, built on shared values
& interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability &
lead to greater prosperity for us all.”
Trump has made several incendiary
comments about Taiwan, saying it should have to pay the U.S. to defend the
nation against China and that Taipei stole
the United States's ability to make semiconductors. He has
also called Chinese President Xi Jinping “brilliant.” |
|
◆
CNA, 2024-11-6 |
Robert O'Brien expresses thanks
|
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2024-11-6 |
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is considering trying to make a call to Donald
Trump after his US election victory, in a move that would likely be seen by Beijing as a sign of Taiwan
seeking to assert independence.
Lai has no plan to arrange
a congratulatory call with Trump, the Presidential Office said in a
statement (
到目前為止沒有規畫致電表達祝賀之意) |
|
◆
中国央視(CCTV),
Dagens
(UK),
2024-11-7 |
Xi Jinping Congratulates Trump, Pushes for Peaceful U.S.-China Future.
Chinese President Xi Jinping personally called Donald Trump to
congratulate him on his election victory, according to China's
Foreign Ministry.
"History has shown that China and the United States benefit from
cooperation and lose from confrontation. Stable, healthy and stable
Sino-American relations meet the common interests of both countries and
the expectations of the international community," Xi stated, as reported
by Ukrinform's
own correspondent.He expressed optimism that both nations would continue
to uphold principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and
mutually beneficial cooperation.
"We look forward to further strengthening dialogue and
communication with Washington and to managing differences responsibly,
finding ways to expand cooperation for the benefit of both countries and
the world," Xi added. |
◆ The
Atlantics, 2024-10-25: Taiwan's
military, in a word, is incompetent.
The need for reform is more urgent than
ever. Taiwan very likely
could not defend itself from a full-scale invasion on its own
... ... isn't just
outnumbered and outgunned. More troubling, its armed forces are plagued by poor
planning and training, insufficient stockpiles, a sclerotic command system, and
weaponry that may be ill-suited to defend against an invasion.
◆
New
York Times, 2024-10-22:
If tensions continued rising, China would likely deploy expanded drills again,
coordinating between its various military services and showing off modern
warfare capabilities; But the frequency of such incursions also raises the risk
of a conflict, accidental or otherwise, that could draw in the United States.
◆
Council on
Foreign Relations, 2024-10-16:
Taiwan and other U.S. partners
will need to contend with an increasingly capable and aggressive China
and rising
isolationism and protectionism in the United States. Trump's
foreign policy pronouncements reflect sentiments held by many in the United
States.
◆
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
, 2024-10-8:
Should China invade, Americans support
... ?
|
If China were to
invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United
States: (% support) |
| |
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
|
Using the US military to airlift food and
medical supplies to Taiwan |
74% |
78 |
|
|
Imposing economic and diplomatic
sanctions on china |
72% |
75 |
76 |
|
Sending additional arms and military
supplies to the Taiwanese government |
59% |
62 |
65 |
|
Sending US troops to Taiwan to help the
Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China |
36% |
39 |
40 |
◆
full text
|
China's
"the
Joint Sword 2024B"
military drills
set a record |
|
◆
le
Monde,
2024-10-15 |
Taiwan announced that it had detected a record
153 Chinese aircraft in one day near its territory.
|
|
◆
Bloomberg,
2024-10-15 |
China
sent a
record 111
warplanes
across
a US-drawn boundary in the strait separating the
sides. |
|
◆
Insider,
2024-10-15 |
A record-breaking 153 Chinese warplanes flew around Taiwan in
war games meant as a warning. |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-15 |
Taiwan says China uses record number of aircraft in war games. |
|
◆
BBC,
2024-10-15 |
the deployment and how close Chinese ships and aircraft were to Taiwan - as well as the fiery
rhetoric - could be seen as very aggressive behaviour
- a dramatic
escalation . |
|
◆
Asia
Times,
2024-10-15 |
expert:
the
latest military drills and the launch of an
intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific
Ocean on September 25 have sent a clear signal to the US
that China is building an “area denial” capability that
the US can no longer fight against |
|
China's response to
national day speech by Taiwanese President William Lai |
|
◆
BBC,
2024-10-14 |
With
new
drills, China is sending a message to
Taiwanese President William Lai that moves towards "Taiwan independence"
are bound to meet a "dead end". "Scared" and "desensitised"
- here's how people on the streets of Taipei are talking about
the exercise involved all parts of the military and
simulates a full-scale attack on its neighbour. |
|
◆
USA
Today,
2024-10-14 |
China launches 'punishment' drills
as 'Stern warning' |
|
◆
National
Review,
2024-10-14 |
The dragon will not be appeased;
There should be no question that the scale
of China's naval and air-force exercises represents an
existential threat to Taiwan's sovereignty.
Perhaps
the Taiwanese
are too confident. Officials seem convinced that their dominance of the global
semiconductor industry represents
a deterrent against aggression. They can hold the world's consumer
electronics industry hostage in the event of
...... |
|
◆
Japan
Times,
2024-10-15 |
China says it won't rule out use of force to take
Taiwan
as
war games end |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-14 |
Senior Taiwan security official says pressure on Taiwan from
China is 'not light' |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-12 |
China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after
denouncing president's speech |
|
|
Taiwan's
president in first National Day speech |
|
◆
Financial Times
,
2024-10-10 |
Taiwan's president calls on China to ‘live up to’
duty to protect peace. China accused Lai of “deliberately severing
the historical connection” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait;
and
has threatened to annex it with military
force if Taipei indefinitely resists its control. China has not previously
responded to a Taiwan president's national address with military moves |
|
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2024-10-10 |
Taiwan
leader
urges
calm
amid
military
threats...
Lai Ching-te,
who China accuses of separatism, says Beijing has no right to
represent Taiwan |
|
◆
Washington Post
,
2024-10-10 |
Lai
Ching-te
says Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan. |
|
◆
Washington Examiner
,
2024-10-11 |
Lai Ching-te declared
“On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving...
These are fine words. Unfortunately, words can't shoot down missiles.
In that regard, Taiwan has a big problem. a 2.5% of GDP defense
budget is a sad joke. Taiwanese reserve forces lack adequate
training and readiness, and its military procurement remains too reliant on
platforms that lack agility and survivability...... |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-10 |
China said Lai was a stubborn adherent of Taiwan
independence, full of confrontational thinking, "constantly provoking troubles
and deliberately aggravating cross-strait tensions". "Lai Ching-te has made
every effort to piece together the grounds for secession" |
|
◆
Bloomberg
,
2024-10-11 |
Lai reiterated that that neither side of the strait separating the
two sides was “subordinate to each other.” Beijing criticized for sending “a dangerous
signal of seeking independence.”... his speech showed “he is hell-bent on Taiwan
independence and has the ill intention of heightening tensions in the Taiwan
Strait for his political, selfish interest. |
|
◆
AFP
,
2024-10-10 |
China warned after the speech that Lai's "provocations"
would result in "disaster" for the people of Taiwan. |
|
Taiwanese are ready for fighting ?? |
|
◆
Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative
to the U.S.
is warning that China has ramped up its
aggression toward the
island, and that its people are ready to fight. |
◆
Washington
Post (2024-8-4):
“Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing
where the fight is happening, when the fight is
happening” . The island is patently not ready for that.
◆
National Interest (2024-8-29):
the Taiwanese are not well prepared for the kind of attack that China is
plotting.
◆
War
On The Rocks, 2024-3-21: Taipei has not made the necessary
preparations. |
|
China's
strategy
to achieve unification |
|
◆
Brookings,
2024-9-16 |
Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to
achieve unification.
The PLA can subject Taiwan to various limited
attacks, such as missile and air bombardment.To
subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using
economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and
“gray zone” military tactics...
seeks to deplete the confidence of the people
brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/ |
|
◆
Politico, 2024-9-11 |
Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a
potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest
Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated
on a potential 2027 invasion scenario.
China's
strategy
to
annex Taiwan is
more
about
cyber
power
than
firepower
|
|
|
|
7.4-magnitude
earthquake struck off Taiwan |
|
◆
New York Times, 2024-4-4 |
Taipei 101, once the
tallest building in the world, still,
some experts say that more needs to be done to either strengthen or
demolish structures that don't meet standards, and such calls have grown
louder in the wake of the latest earthquake.
|
|
◆
Fortune, 2024-4-4 |
TSMC said its fabrication plants recovered 70% of
tools within 10 hours of the earthquake, and that its
“critical tools,” such as its multimillion-dollar extreme
ultraviolet lithography tools, remain unharmed...
its massive
chip foundry mega-complexes are nearly quake-proof. |
|
◆
USA Today, 2024-4-4 |
The island's two nuclear power stations
remain unaffected.
Nvidia said it expects no supply disruptions
from the earthquake.
Taiwan, prone to earthquakes, sits on the Pacific
“Ring of Fire” where 90% of the world's temblors take place.
It felt strong in Taipei because of the “basin
effect,” which occurs when earthquake reverberations become
trapped in soft ground.
|
|
◆
ABC News, 2024-4-3 |
TSMC, one of the biggest companies
in Taiwan's crucial semiconductor manufacturing
industry, said its safety systems were operating normally and that some
fabrication plants had been evacuated as a preventive measure.
|
|
Taiwan classifies the military move against intrusion as
"First strike" |
|
◆
EurAsian Times,
2024-3-10:Taiwan has authorized its commanders to use lethal military force on
intruding Chinese warplanes that cross its aerial and maritime territorial
borders. Classifying the military move as a “first strike,”
...Ministry
of National
Defense says “that if enemy aircraft
or vessels intruded into Taiwan’s airspace or waters, then commanders are
authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security
when all other non-peaceful means fail.”
eurasiantimes.com/china-ill-prepared-to-annex-taiwan-top-pla-general/ |
◆
United
Daily (Taiwan),
2024-3-10: a group of China's fishing boats entered Taiwan's internal
waters (6 nautical miles) and destroyed our fishing-net, but
Taiwan was inactive about it.
udn.com/news/story/11091/7821748?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2 |
|
◆
the Lowy
Institute Asia Power Index, 2023
Edition |
| |
Taiwan |
China |
Japan |
Korea |
Singapore |
|
Comprehensive Power |
No.14 15.2 |
2nd |
3rd |
7th |
8th |
|
Economic capability |
8th
-1.2 13.0 |
2nd 87.0 |
3rd |
5th |
6th |
|
Military Capability |
11th +2.1 21.7 |
2nd 68.1 |
6th 27.4 |
5th |
9th |
|
Resilience |
18th -5.9 24.7 |
3rd 70.4 |
11th |
10th |
14th |
|
Future Resources |
12th 6.5 |
2nd 72.9 |
5th |
7th |
11th |
|
Diplomatic Influence |
22th 19.4 |
1st 91.5 |
3rd |
6th |
10th |
|
Economic Relationships |
12th 11.1 |
1st 98.3 |
3rd |
5th |
4th |
|
Cultural Influence |
13th 12.6 |
2nd 47.4 |
3rd |
7th |
9th |
|
Defense Networks |
16th 11.8 |
7th 23.7 |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
| |
|
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/ |
|
Comparison -
The number of best universities of Asian countries in world best indexes |
|
index |
world ranks |
China |
Singapore |
Japan |
H K |
Australia |
S. Korea |
Taiwan |
|
|
Nature |
1-100 |
37 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
US News |
1-100 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
QS |
1-25 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
25-60 |
3 |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
60-100 |
|
|
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
CWUR |
1-100 |
6 |
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
Times |
1-70 |
6 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
70-100 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
Mar. 17, 2024
total |
59 |
9 |
13 |
15 |
25 |
11 |
1 |
|
|
☉ Nature / after No.100 -
Taiwan
(NTU
台灣大學) ranks 208, behind
Hong Kong (103. City U HK 108 Chinese U. HK
122. HKUST
207. HK Poly.),
Australia (no. 112, 113, 134, 148), Israel (no.
86, 140, 176, 196), Saudi Arabia (145. KAUST),
India
(149 India U.,
189. India Institute of
Science) etc
☉
QS /
Taiwan
(NTU ranks no. 69) is behind Malaysia (no. 65 U. Malaya)
☉
CWUR /
Taiwan
(NTU no. 102) is behind Israel (no. 70, 87) full text:
https://intlhumanrights.com/education.htm |
|
The tension between Taiwan and China reached a new
high
the Deaths of Chinese Fishermen That Taiwanese Forces Chased Away |
|
Associated Press, 2024-2-18 |
The fishermen's deaths are unusual despite the level of Chinese activity in the
waters near Kinmen, which is closer to China than it is to Taiwan's main island |
|
TIME, 2024-2-15 |
China: Taiwan's
officials have long mistreated fishermen from the mainland and
forcefully and dangerously seized mainland fishing boats, a pattern it
claims led to the recent |
|
Reuters, NBC News, 2024-2-18 |
China has
condemned Taiwan's actions and labeled the death incident "wicked".
The deaths had caused “strong indignation” in China, and there is no
such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted waters’. China will
strengthen its law enforcement activities and carry out regular patrols
around a small group of Taiwanese-controlled islands off the Chinese
coast as tensions rise over the deaths of two Chinese nationals |
|
Daily Express
(UK), 2024-2-18 |
China ramps up coast guard ships in Taiwan waters as tensions
rise over fishermen deaths.
Tensions
between China and Taiwan have reached a new high. |
|
DW (Germany),
2024-2-16 |
Inevitable Taiwan tensions in 2024 |
|
China Daily
(China) , 2024-2-19 |
China: A callous act with disregard for human life. It has caused strong
indignation across the mainland ;
For many years, the
mainland
established reception facilities for Taiwan fishermen in numerous coastal areas,
provided them assistance such as shelters and supplies, and rescued Taiwan
fishing boats and fishermen,。
In contrast, the
DPP Taiwan have, for
some time, forcefully detained mainland fishing boats under various pretexts and
treated mainland fishermen in a rude and dangerous manner, this was the key reason why the fatal incident occurred.
The mainland reserves the right to take further measures, and Taiwan will bear
all consequences. |
|
Taipei Times (Taiwan), 2024-2-16 |
Taiwan (MAC) : Coast guard's conduct appropriate - they were
legally performing their duties and had not erred in any way.
Chinese fishing vessels have been intruding into Taiwan's restricted or
prohibited waters for a while to poach high-priced fish |
|
GT
(China) ,
2024-2-26 |
Taiwan even used the phrase "rescue
explanation of the overturned mainland speedboat" at a press conference,
making the accident sound like the mainland fishing boat had
accidentally capsized and Taiwan's vessel was there to rescue, blatantly
spreading false information.
If the Taiwan authorities continue to disregard the mainland's sincerity,
then they will bear
the consequences and pay the cost. Calling off the "off-limit" or "restricted"
waters in the Xiamen-Kinmen zones, realizing regular law enforcement patrols in
the entire Xiamen-Kinmen waters, including boarding inspections of relevant
ships
globaltimes.cn/page/202402/1307706.shtml
|
|
media |
China's invasion |
|
◆
GB News, 2023-12-25 |
So we should be
working with Taiwan right now privately telling them we're not going to
fight for you.
“We just can't get
into a war that could go nuclear, it would be foolish.” |
|
◆
NBC, 2023-12-26 |
Xi's private warning
on
reunifying Taiwan to Biden
was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as
increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal
presidential election
in the self-governing democratic island next month.
Sen. Lindsey
Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense
supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion
sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan.
(ps:
no plan to send military troops) |
|
◆
Daily Express, 2023-12-23 |
The Taiwan war is coming - and the West will need boots
on the ground |
|
◆
New
York Post, 2023-12-21 |
China's
Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take
Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of
ownership to notification of intent
to take possession. Biden often talks tough,
but shies from any action he
fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the
hands of America's adversaries.
|
|
◆
First Post, 2023-12-22 |
Japan says that an invasion of Taiwan by China is imminent and that it is
preparing for the repercussions |
|
|
|
western media |
◆
Taiwan's
presidential election -
could
reignite U.S.-China tensions |
|
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 |
Beijing calls the race a
“choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation
campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military
aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights
unseen in decades... a vote
that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results
badly.
brief |
|
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 |
Our policy, therefore, has to
be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not
come to shove. That means
... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai
Ching-te.
brief |
|
CNBC,
2023-11-27 |
Chinese
government
has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war,
prosperity and decline.”
The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing
testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more
broadly.
brief |
|
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 |
an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in
power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change,
especially among younger voters.
brief |
|
Reuters,
2023-11-28 |
China
repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of
'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024
leadership election in Taiwan"
brief |
|
SCMP,
2023-11-29 |
Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war' |
|
media |
Biden-Xi meeting |
|
USA
Today, 2023-11-15 |
Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi
said there are no plans for military action,
but stressed the need for an eventual resolution |
|
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 |
Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet;
As the latest crisis in the
Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot. |
|
France 24, 2023-11-15 |
Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Biden，from
Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China
relationship will be over Taiwan |
|
New
York Times, 2023-11-16 |
The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four
decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly
bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict |
| |
|
western media |
Taiwan's presidential election |
|
Economist, 2023-11-15 |
Taiwan's opposition parties unite...
could lead to a significant relaxation of the island-state's defiant posture towards
China |
|
Washington Post, 2023-11-15 |
Taiwan's
two main opposition parties, both of which have vowed to restart
talks with China, announced a joint presidential ticket for
January’s election in a deal that could bring a major political
upset in the self-ruled island democracy. |
|
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 |
in any case, support for the DPP has been fading ahead of January’s
presidential elections. But voters in Taiwan tend to be lukewarm
toward candidates seen as too pro-China, and the DPP still leads in
several polls. |
|
Bloomberg, 2023-11-15 |
a
single opposition bid raises the likelihood of a government in
Taipei more willing to accept China’s conditions for direct talks between the two sides of the Taiwan
Strait. |
|
TIME, 2023-11-15 |
A successful opposition alliance — no matter who is running as
president — means it’s likely cross-strait tensions will improve |
|
Financial Times, 2023-11-15 |
Taiwan’s
opposition parties join forces for crucial presidential poll Deal
sharply increases odds that ruling Democratic Progressive party will
lose election;
Beijing has denounced Lai as a separatist and framed the
presidential race as a choice between war and peace — rhetoric
sometimes echoed by the opposition. |
|
Reuters, 2023-11-15 |
Some opinion polls have shown that if Hou and Ko
teamed up, in whatever combination, they would beat Lai
。Tamkang University
scholar: The U.S. and China both want stabilised Taiwan
Strait relations. Lai may not be the ideal person for this |
|
◆
Washington Post,
2023-9-28:
Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made
submarine for testing |
|
♦ CNN,
2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed
this
as a significant milestone.
“The submarine is an important realization of our concrete
commitment in defending our country”.
♦ Newsweek,
2023-9-29: Taiwan's former
military leader who heads the submarine program said that the
slated eight Hai
Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.". |
♦
BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore
Drew Thompson:
the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict
would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast,
where submarines would be most effective in...Instead,
the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west
coast facing mainland China... The submarine is
not optimised for a counter invasion role...
♦
NewsWeek,
2023-9-29: A senior
researcher at RAND:
The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were
well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.
Policy experts in the U.S. have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric
defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship
missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine."
Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so。
♦
The Diplomat,
2023-9-30:
The ODC
(
typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and
more survivable weapons systems.) appears to
have fallen
out of favor as
a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has
sought to pressure the
government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.
|
◆
The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24:
China has plans to mobilize hundreds or
thousands of civilian merchant ships, fishing boats, Coast Guard vessels, and
anything else capable of ferrying infantry units across the South China Sea, according to
a paper by Lonnie Henley,...In such volumes it would be impossible for even an advanced military to
defeat them all
◆
19FortyFive, 2023-9-21:
China is building a powerful
military to beat America in a war over Taiwan;
China is readying for war today.
China's military has practiced deploying
Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers
|
◆
Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues
news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues |
|
Advantages |
including
geography and climate. |
|
Challenges |
(1)
the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a
range of military campaigns against Taiwan.
(2) Civil-military relations are strained...
The archipelago's
energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure
systems are vulnerable to external disruption.
Taiwan's
civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's
military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.
At
a societal level, it is not clear what costs
—
in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives
—
Taiwan's
people would be willing or able to bear. |
|
Taiwan presidency
- Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition) |
|
◆ BBC,
2023-8-29 |
Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid
supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten.
But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a
single candidate. |
|
◆ Economist,
2023-8-29 |
The opposition
would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by
placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect. |
|
◆ Washington Post,
2023-8-28 |
Taiwanese voters
could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is
between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political
independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as
the only viable path. |
|
◆ Wall Street Journal,
2023-8-25 |
analysts said Lai's lead could
erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's
reputation for volatile politics.
|
|
◆ Reuters,
2023-8-28 |
Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been
that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims
Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of
office. |
|
◆ AP, The Hill,
2023-8-28 |
Terry Gou
announces run for Taiwan presidency.
He has received criticism
that
he was splitting the vote,“I
will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”.
He has received criticism
that he was splitting the vote |
|
◆
Fox News, 2023-7-28
The coming China war over Taiwan
-
The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place |
♦
a critical question – is Taiwan
committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is
no.
♦
perhaps most alarmingly,
some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their
country.Research
in
2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the
military and averse to service."
♦
Biden
must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to
participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late
Rebekah Koffler |
|
National Interest, 2023-7-16 -
Willing to fight ? |
|
China |
Taiwan |
| a study conducted
by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of
the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33
percent opposed it ... another online
survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent
supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it
among Chinese elites. |
Instead
of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people
have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the
United States...
extension of the compulsory conscription
program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. |
|
Bulgari
apologizes ──
|
|
♣
CNN, 2023-7-12 |
Bulgari has apologized for listing
Taiwan and China separately on some of its websites, after Chinese
social media users accused
...People's
Daily meanwhile questioned why the brand had not published similar
statements to its English-language accounts on Twitter and Instagram.。
In 2019, Versace apologized implying Taiwan's
independence...
aol.com/bulgari-apologizes-taiwan-listing-amid-064439595.html |
|
#MeToo
in Taiwan
◆ The
Guardian, 2023-6-8:
The
belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms
that still govern Taiwanese society.
while these accusations had played out in the court of public
opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo
AmyHawk
◆ Washington
Post, 2023-6-7:
The
#MeToo
accusations have caused the DPP's
favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a
tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the
nationalist Kuomintang.
people
across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of
harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and
baseball umpires.
But the government has
until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual
harassment.
msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH
Vic
Chiang, Meaghan Tobin
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2023-6-7:
Sexual
misconduct
allegations
roil Taiwan's
U.S.-friendly
ruling
party.
wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894
Joyu Wang
Wenxin Fan
◆
Bloomberg, 2023-6-7:
Taiwan president apologizes twice in week for #MeToo allegations,
Tsai: "We've also seen such cases are
everywhere, not only in the DPP or other political parties..."
Women's rights |
|
◆ Reuters, 2023-5-20 |
"war is not an option", Taiwan president
says |
|
◆Washington
Examiner, 2023-6-1 |
Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans
stick their necks out?
|
|
◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-5-19 |
The top-line fact in the weapons to Ukraine or Taiwan debate
/
Taiwan's defense spending remains
absurdly inadequate. It's also feasible that Taiwan may elect a new
government in 2024 that lacks sufficient resolve to fight China. In contrast,
Ukraine has shown not just the resolve to fight against overwhelming odds, but
the spirit to win.
|
grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN,
2023-1-9: CSIS War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge
cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries
|
Biden's
State of the Union speech - Taiwan war |
|
The Hill, 2023-2-9 |
Biden's State of the Union speech on Feb. 7 buried these two clear
and present dangers simultaneously confronting national security. When is the Biden administration going to recognize that we are essentially in
the equivalent of WWIII? |
|
Washington Examiner, 2023-2-1 |
State of Our Union: Biden's China policy tolerates excessive risks The Biden administration is
playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war. |
|
The Hill, 2023-2-14 |
In his first State
of the Union address in March 2022, President Biden,
proclaimed, “In the battle between democracy and autocracy,
democracies are rising to the moment";...
if
China invaded Taiwan, would the international order really collapse?
Would authoritarianism really spread throughout the globe? Is it in
the U.S. interest to come to Taiwan’s defense? Are we prepared to
send Americans into harm's way? |
|
General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025?
The Hill, 2023-2-2, Fox News, 2023-2-4, USA Today, 2023-2-3 |
|
US
generals, officials, experts, law-makers |
China invade Taiwan by ? |
|
CIA Director William Burns |
Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027 |
|
Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command |
by 2027 |
|
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
(Jan. 2023) |
China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by
2027 |
|
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday
(Oct., 2022) |
Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or
a potentially a 2023 window |
|
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
(Oct., 2022) |
on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought. |
|
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security
Affairs Ely Ratner
(July, 2022) |
“only a matter of time” |
|
Minihan,
the leader of Air Mobility Command |
2025 |
|
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the
Center for a New American Security, |
before 2027, a crisis or incident that could spiral out of
control |
|
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul |
agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.” |
|
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) |
2025 |
|
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) |
the
2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but
“highly unlikely,” |
|
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey |
2025
, a“bad judgment” |
|
Gen. Mark
Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
(Nov. 2022) |
it
will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability
to invade Taiwan. |
|
news.yahoo.com/general-memo-spurs-debate-could-110000282.html |
|
NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China |
|
WSJ, 2022-12-27 |
a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in
the face of growing
concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between
Washington and Beijing.
wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529 |
|
PBS,
AP,
2022-12-27 |
The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it
underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong
the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however, only 35.6
percent said they would support an extension
pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year |
|
CNN,
2022-12-27 |
Chinese
soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of
the air and the sea...before
they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need
people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters
edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html |
|
Washington Post, 12-27 |
It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with
Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/ |
|
Mainichi
Japan
,
2022-12-28 |
The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
|
|
GT (China), 2022-12-27 |
"a
deplorable decision" made under US
pressure
/
the DPP authorities might
incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in
collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the
mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real
battlefield.
...expecting
that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense
budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military
is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml
12-27 |
|
High-tech.
persecutions in Taiwan
(
privacy is no
longer sacrosanct
)
|
|
★
surveillance
in Europe
An increased number of oversight bodies in EU
Member States now monitors the work of intelligence services.
About one month ago, a historic vote in the European Parliament: dangerous AI surveillance
(real-time
remote
biometric identification in public spaces, emotion recognition
( face
analysis )
)
banned.
★
surveillance
in the
U.S.
Freedom House (2019)
: At the very least, social media surveillance must come
under greater oversight.
The use
of such programs must be transparent...
The survival of democracy requires vibrant public spaces, both
offline and online, where individuals can...
without fear of constant surveillance.
Washington DC based Epic.org: The unchecked expansion of
surveillance systems is one of the greatest threats to privacy
and civil liberties. Abuses of surveillance
technology are not only unjust, they're dangerous.
The concerns in the US
or Europe are basically about
people’s emails, online chats, internet
browsing histories, and information about social media activity
or
face analysis
in public spaces,
etc
As for
mind
control,
and electromagnetic attacks
the civilians
in Taiwan, those are not only violation of Privacy Act (Taiwan
does not have a Privacy Act ), but also committing serious
crimes.
However,
In Taiwan, it is sort of a "Black box"
──
Global Times (2022-12-19) says that - There are forces on the
island of Taiwan
who are mentally
controlling the Taiwan people.
Taiwan has not rebutted its "sworm
enemy's" allegation for more than half years, which is nothing
other than giving a tacit consent to it.
Till now, Taiwan Intel. still refuse to declassify and open
persecution files of 50 years ago, are they willing to open the
public the crimes they committed in recent years
(if any) ?
★
Oversight
In the US,
PRISM receives independent oversight from the federal Gov. executive, judicial and
legislatives branches.
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM)
In
EU Member States,
they increased
the number of oversight bodies
to monitor the work of intelligence services
★
Can Taiwan make it ?
Each time
Taiwan's Intel. or dark forces use any of high-tech. weapons (e.g.,
electromagnetic attacks,
mind controlling, etc) to
harm or repress or abuse any of Taiwanese people, will they record
their operation on files ? Taiwan needs a mechanism for great oversight and legal actions.
|
♦
Executive
|
♦
Judicial
|
♦
Legislatives |
|
Economist
(2023-5-31)
says
the gov. Executive Yuan
(the
ruling
party)
has an
image problem at home; they have been criticized as immoral
and rotten (chinatimes.com/opinion/20230602004779-262101?chdtv
,
udn.com/news/story/7338/7179278?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate
udn.com/news/story/7338/7183270?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate
udn.com/news/story/7338/7180885)
|
Only 32.8% of the Taiwanese people trust
the judges. (National Chung-Cheng Univ., 2023-2-13) |
The opposition legislators have huge difficulty in asking
for any files (China Times, 2021-6-18 editorial)
|
|
|
Can
"silicon shield" protect
Taiwan? |
|
New York Times,
2022-12-6 |
In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China
...But the company set a limit on the factory’s
level of production technology
nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html |
|
Financial Times, 2022-12-12 |
TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are
stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy...
Premier Su has already stated that TSMC is
not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes
ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9 |
|
CNN, 2022-12-9 |
Taiwan worries about losing its
‘silicon shield’ / TSMC's
presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any
attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu
(a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was
under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology
to the US. edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html
|
|
Bloomberg,
2022-10-7 |
some advocate the US make clear to
China that it would destroy
TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a
“scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US
Army War College Quarterly.
finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
|
|
TIME, 2022-10-5 |
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently
argued in Foreign Affairs that the
island's chip industry is a “‘silicon
shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive
attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a
highly optimistic way of looking at the situation. time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/ |
|
New York Times,
2022-9-9 |
Taiwan is
protected by something far more subtle —The
"silicon shield"...If
it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from
Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail |
|
New York Times,
2022-8-29 |
Analysts debate how much
protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives
it. Some argue that calculations over
supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war. |
|
National
Interest,
2022-5-15 |
Taiwan's
“silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's
defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is
an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan,
and fails to deter China |
|
VOA News,
2021-5-10 |
Song Hong, assistant general director at the
Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences shrugged off the
geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China
views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from
its goals by U.S. action |
|
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 |
Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a
guaranteed security blanket.
|
|
Fox News,
2022-8-26 |
Why would the U.S.
fight China over Taiwan,
Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor
production is the glue |
|
The
Atlantic, 2022-10-3 |
The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem.
A Chinese
attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of
semiconductor components.
Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution.
theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/
|
|
New
York Times,
2022-1-25 |
75
percent of production takes place in East Asia.
Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in
Taiwan...China
could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to
seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden
promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the
United States.
nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html |
|
CBS
News, 2022-9-25 |
Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing
so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United
States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful
of places, and Taiwan produces most of
them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be
devastating." |
|
Taiwan dominates
the global production of computer chips /
◆
BBC, 2022-1-12,
source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021 |
|
Taiwan |
S. Korea |
China |
Other |
|
65% |
18% |
5% |
12% |
|
news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html |
| |
|
| |
|
|
★ pic.:
No. 1 "comment
Taiwan" on
US Yahoo,
2023-2-28,
2023-1-21, 2023-1-1,
No. 1
or top 2 "comment
Taiwan" on
US Yahoo,
2023-1-1,
2022-12-24,
2022-12-12,
2022-11-29,
2022-11-1,
2022-10-23,
2022-10-10,
2022-10-6,
2022-9-11,
2022-8-20, 2022-8-13, 2022-8-7,
2022-6-25,
2022-5-23,
2022-4-16,
2022-3-20,
2022-3-3,
2022-1-30,
2022-1-12,
2022-1-1,
2021-12-10
★
No. 1 "comment
Taiwan" on
swisscows
( Switzerland search engine ),
2023-6-22, 10-1-2020, 8-13-2020
★
No. 1 "comment
Taiwan" on Mocrosoft Bing,
2023-2-28,
2023-1-21,
2023-1-1,
2022-12-24,
2022-12-12,
2022-11-29,
2022-11-22,
2022-11-1,
2022-10-31,
2022-10-23,
2022-10-10,
2022-10-6,
2022-9-20,
2022-9-11,
2022-9-5,
2022-8-24, 2022-8-13, 2022-8-7,
2022-7-18,
2022-7-7,
2022-7-1,2022-6-25,
2022-6-10,
2022-6-8,
2022-5-30, 2022-5-16,
2022-5-6 |
|
 |
★
TaiwanPlus,
2023-3-6:
A poll
| |
