♦♦♦♦♦♦ Taiwan is ... ?♦♦♦♦ Would the US win a fight against China?♦♦♦♦ a proxy war in Taiwan?♦♦♦♦♦No any recall campaign like Taiwan's♦♦♦♦♦RATS at large♦♦♦♦ Taiwan's fate♦♦ ♦  Taiwan, a corrupt country ♦♦♦♦♦  Taiwan's military,  in infancy stage♦ ♦♦♦ Taiwanese fake-news strategy♦♦  ♦ Taiwan president shoots in his foot  ♦♦♦  ♦ Taiwan, freedom & democracy? ♦   ♦ US skepticism from Taiwan ♦ ♦ Taiwan leaders - liars?  ♦ ♦ same-sex marriage in Taiwan on purpose ? ♦♦ Taiwan president's secret life?♦ ♦  mind control weaponry in Taiwan  ♦♦  China's invasion of Taiwan ♦♦♦  disinformation, interference from foreign countries  ♦♦  Taiwan - lowest trust rates in the media among democracies

OPinion  ♣  

Real allies ?

 ♦ The Telegraph (2025-7-15): the Australian prime minister said that his country would not join a “hypothetical” conflict with China over Taiwan.  President Donald Trump has echoed this position, while also pushing for Taiwan to do its own part to protect itself. 
 ♦ Foreign Policy Research Institute (2025-7-11): Taiwanese people did not see weapons sales or economic sanctions as evidence of support; instead, they understood the US's hard line against putting boots on the ground as a clear signal that America did not want to defend Taiwan.
 ♦ Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (2025-6-19): Taiwan must turn toward real allies; Taipei should no longer foster relations with microstates that can't help its cause. 

However, who are real allies ?

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):   Since 1945, when the U.S. has gone to war it has usually done so with at least some major allies on its side. A war over Taiwan would be very likely different.  Don't expect US allies to join. Even the most reliable treaty allies, including Japan and Australia, would be reluctant to join what would be a very costly war effort.  All of them stand to lose a great deal if they took up arms against China. 
 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21):  Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to commit troops to save Taiwan, either because they lack the military capability or don't want to risk all-out war with an increasingly formidable China, according to the RAND Corp.; Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China.

Japan

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : The US Isn't Alone in Support of Taiwan.    Japan is Taiwan's second-best friend in the world, after the U.S. This is true in peacetime.
 ♣ Wall Street Journal (2023-7-15)  : Getting Japan to engage in the fight directly would be harder. Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.  “If you ask the question of whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan, I think 90% of Japanese people would say ‘no’ at this point," said Satoru Mori, a professor of politics at Keio University in Tokyo;  although simulations conducted earlier this year by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.

 ♣ Financial Review, Australia (2025-7-13) :  The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, A second person said there was a “collective raising of eyebrows” from representatives in Japan, Australia and other US allies.  The Financial Times reported recently that Japan cancelled a high-profile ministerial meeting with the US after Colby abruptly increased the US request for more defence spending.  the push for more spending — including one from Colby that was publicly rebuked by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba — comes ahead of upper house elections on July 20. The official said the US understood that it had to be sensitive to the political considerations of allies.

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):   War with China over Taiwan?  According to a poll for The Asahi Shimbun, just 11 % of Japanese respondents said that their armed forces should join the U.S. in the fighting    The Wall Street Journal reported on Japan's lack of commitment to involve itself directly in the defense of Taiwan.   “Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.” 

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21): Japanese pacifism (both popular and constitutional) and the fear of a retaliatory attack by China are likely to limit Japan's military support for Taiwan, perhaps only to logistics and supplies," RAND said.

 ♣ New Yorker (2022-11-14): With the Japanese, even an attack on the U.S. base in Okinawa would not necessarily trigger self-defense. The concern is partly that the U.S. would not win a fight against China.
 ♣ Asahi News (2023-5-1): Eighty percent of voters said they are worried that Japan would be caught up in the armed conflict if the United States and China clashed over Taiwan, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey.

Korea

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):  South Korea likewise has strong incentives to stay out of a Taiwan conflict. Seoul not only has a larger and more immediate threat to worry about in North Korea, but it also cannot afford hostility with China. Like the other allies, South Korea has a huge trade relationship with China that would be wrecked if it joined in a U.S. military campaign. 

 ♣ Pacific Forum, Asia Times (2025-6-12):  South Koreans, who had long seen China as essential not only for economic growth but for a resolution to inter-Korean division.  Washington must first convince regional countries that there is a threat to prepare for and that the United States is the reliable partner it claims to be.

Australia

 ♣ New Zealand Herald  (2023-2-13):  The United States is not preparing to go to war against China. The United States is preparing Australia to go to war against China.

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : Australia has a smaller military and is farther away from Taiwan than Americans sometimes imagine.  It is, after all, a democracy. If ever called upon to help defend Taiwan, it will have its own electorate to answer to.
 ♣ Financial Times (2025-7-12)  :The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, in an effort that has frustrated the two most important American allies - the US itself does not give a blank cheque guarantee to Taiwan.  “President Trump has not committed to defend Taiwan, so it is unrealistic for the US to insist on clear commitments from others.”

 ♣ Lowy Institute, Australia (2025-7-14)  : An AUKUS ultimatum for Australia over Taiwan risks backfiring on Washington - US pressure tactics could undermine the Australia alliance it aims to strengthen. Rather than being the actions of a rogue official, there is every reason to assume that Colby’s private pressure has the broader imprimatur of the Trump administration. The background sources quoted for the Financial Times story were all US officials, so it’s clear that the Trump administration is intending to pressure the Albanese government publicly.

 ♣ The Nightly, Australia (2025-7-14)  : “There are no vital interests at stake for Australia — none that would warrant us getting involved in a conflict that could be catastrophic to the extent if the exchange was nuclear,” says Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, a foreign affairs think tank in Sydney.

 ♣ NEWS Australia (2025-7-14)  : the government’s position on Taiwan shows the weakness of Anthony Albanese’s relationship with Donald Trump and could put the AUKUS agreement at risk.

 ♣ Anadolu Agency (2025-7-14): Australia rejects unilateral action on Taiwan: Premier  Anthony Albanese says.

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):   Australia is also unlikely to join the U.S. in a war. The Australian government has been clear that it made no promises to the U.S. that it would take part in a conflict over Taiwan in exchange for the provision of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS arrangement. Even though Australia has a record of fighting in every major U.S. war since WWII

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2023-2-21): Are we prepared for full-scale conflict? Our panel of national security experts says no. Former prime minister Paul Keating has said Taiwan is “not a vital Australian interest” and described its status as a “civil matter” for China.

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2023-3-9):Australia has many vulnerabilities. It has long and exposed connections to the rest of the world – sea, air and undersea – yet is incapable of protecting them. So its dependency on imports of essentials – including fuel, pharmaceuticals, electronics and weaponry – could be a fatal weakness in a crisis. Australia’s military bases are unprotected and could be disabled quickly. Australia has no long-range military strike power to protect its approaches or hold an enemy at a distance. Overarching all else, it has no national security policy to deal with these vulnerabilities.

 ♣ news.com.au (2023-5-2): Top-secret war-gaming exercises conducted for the Albanese’s government’s defence review concluded Australia would be “f***ed” if China established a military base in a nearby Pacific nation such as the Solomon Islands.  “The role for Australia in a Taiwan contingency is highly unlikely to be at the front line in the Taiwan Strait,” an expert  from the University of Sydney said. The declassified defence review found as it stands, Australia is ill-equipped to defend itself and can no longer rely on “geography or warning time” ahead of conflict in the region.“The rise of the ‘missile age’ in modern warfare, crystallised by the proliferation of long-range precision strike weapons, has radically reduced Australia's geographic benefits, the comfort of distance and our qualitative regional capability edge.”

 ♣ neo (Russia, 2025-6-3): Australia and New Zealand: War Logistics and Symbols of Participation.   The director of a global conflict, casts Canberra as a set, not a character. Submarine program? A technological gift? In reality—a strategic tether. The moment you receive a nuclear toy from the U.S., your foreign policy is no longer written in parliament, but at AUKUS headquarters.

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21):  it still lacks the ability to project and sustain military operations 5,000 miles away in Taiwan.

Philippines  

 ♣ Economist (2024-2-21): America has secured access to nine military bases in its former Asian colony.    If America and China came to blows, little would be expected of the Philippines’ 140,000-strong armed forces. They are not equipped to first-world standards and largely focused on counter-insurgency operations.

 ♣ neo (2025-6-3): The Philippines is not just an ally. It is the frontier.  In reality, it’s a shadow play, where every Philippine maneuver echoes a baton waved from across the ocean. Manila performs confrontation like an actor in a bad play, but it’s the Pentagon that holds the curtains. The entire stage, meanwhile, is littered with the traces of transnational corruption and bribery that harm not only the Philippines, The Philippines is no longer just a coastline. It is a living shield, pushed closer to Beijing with American money—but paid for in local blood.
 ♣ Washington Post (2025-7-14): In 2023, the U.S. secured access to four new military sites in the Philippines, Philippine officials have not said whether they would allow these sites to be used as a staging ground for a defense of Taiwan.   Recently, in response to the deployment of advanced American missile systems in the Philippines, China said Manila has “tied itself to the U.S. war chariot".

Thailand

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):    Thailand, is even less inclined to have anything to do with such a conflict. Thailand would not be able to do much of anything to assist the U.S. in this war even if it wanted to, and it wouldn't want to.  “Thailand does not view China as a revisionist power or a military threat.” 

Singapore 

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  :  Singapore is by far the best peacetime partner Taiwan has in Southeast Asia. Otherwise, it holds its cards close to its chest.

India 

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : Its main concern is China's presence in its own neighborhood at sea, but especially along its northern border. It's going to shy away from anything it sees as provocative.

Canada

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21): Canada's small military could muster only a token force for Taiwan's defense.

EU

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-3-4): Europe has made it clear that Taiwan is not an issue they will intervene for...

 ♣ New York Times (2022-8-3) : No European country, however supportive of democracy, has indicated much willingness to go halfway around the world to help defend Taiwan.

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : The EU is made up of 27 nations.  It's not easy for it to develop consensus, on Taiwan or anything else involving China policy, especially given a couple of Chinese-friendly members with records of obstructing consensus.

UK 

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21): Britain's shrinking armed forces, which already have European commitments, would struggle just to dispatch a small carrier task force 6,000 miles to the South China Sea.

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : There remains a lack of clarity in the U.K.’s approach to the region. The “integrated review”  hedges on China. Taiwan is not mentioned once.

France

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  :The operational drawback with France is the mirror image of the U.K.'s strength. One cannot assume that because we have a common command structure in NATO, and do joint missions in Africa, that the two militaries can easily do the same in the Pacific

USA

 ♣ National Interest (2025-5-20):  If war comes, Taiwan's hope and expectation is that the United States will enter the fray.  Wargames point to costly fighting and losses if that happens, including the specter of potential escalation to nuclear war.   Polls repeatedly show that an American majority does not support fighting for Taiwan.

 ♣ Economist (2025-5-1):  Taiwan's main backer, America, grows less reliable.  Elbridge Colby says Taiwan is not an “existential” matter for America and suggests the island cannot be defended at acceptable cost.

 ♣ New York Times, 2025-4-1: Taiwan can no longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now realizing.

 ♣ National Defense Magazine, 2025-7-14: Lack of U.S. participation in Taiwan's largest military exercise (called Han Kuang) a concern, Experts Say; The United States’ absence from Han Kuang not only limits its effectiveness, but also incurs heavy costs in the event of an actual invasion scenario.

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-3-4):  Certainty that American forces won’t intervene on Taiwan's behalf will only embolden the Chinese.  

 ♣ Brookings, 2025-2-12 : Trump said in 2021, if China invades Taiwan, “there isn't a f—ing thing we can do about it.”

 ♣ National Interest  (2025-1-13) : The United States is unlikely to do much of anything to stop the Chinese when they do go forward with their nefarious plans. That’s because the United States and its allies simply lack the political will and the defense industrial base to support the kind of herculean effort that will be needed to defeat a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of the embattled island democracy of Taiwan. 

 ♣ TIME, 2025-2-27:  University of London expert says: I haven't seen any evidence that Trump cares much about Taiwan. 

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2025-2-24): “It's not exactly treating Taiwan the way you treat a friend,” Wen-Ti Sung, a Taipei-based specialist at the Australian National University says.

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2024-1-22 ):  By 2018, Trump's tone had changed. “What do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?” Trump asked aides, according to Bob Woodward's book Fear: Trump in the White House.
 ♣ Chicago tribune (2022-9-23 ): Does the US president not recognize that Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman went on record stating emphatically that Taiwan is part of China? Is he not aware that the whole point of President Richard Nixon’s wise triangular diplomacy in 1972 was to “trade” Taiwan for U.S.-China normalization?

 ♣ WSWS.org (2025-04-11) :  The US military presence in East Asia is unlikely to successfully defend Taiwan, and the cost of conflicts with China is prohibitively expensive. Therefore, the US is more or less prepared to “forsake Taiwan, and to remove it from the first island chain.”

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-2-24): The world is expecting an imminent invasion of Taiwan.  ...The U.S. moves thousands of troops and planes into regional U.S. bases, reinforces air-defense systems, and directs carrier groups to move toward the Western Pacific. The stage is set for a bloody conflict. Yet, those American troops will never even set foot on Taiwan. They will never fire their rifles.

Taiwan  
is unserious about its national defense — lacking of ‘will to fight’ ,  slow mobilization,  buying wrong weaponry ...

 ♣ Lowy Institute (2025-5-26): Taiwan's defence spending has increased but still falls short of the urgency implied by official rhetoric. Civic mobilisation is growing, but slowly.
 ♣ National Interest (2025-6-6): Not tanks, F-16s, and warships—but rather lots of people and a seemingly endless cache of small arms dispersed throughout the country. Unfortunately, Taiwan's leaders have not adopted this approach—and they're running out of time to change direction.
 ♣ National Interest  (2025-1-13) : substantive numbers of both Taiwanese and Chinese view themselves as siblings from the same culture. Both China and Taiwan’s governments face the problems that there is a clear reticence on the part of their people to fight each other, given these cultural linkages.
 ♣ Economist  (2024-9-5) Taiwan needs to hold out long enough for friends to come to its aid, but polls suggest the will to resist rests, in turn, on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Worryingly, ... Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics.