Opinions on Taiwan★★★ politics, war ★★★ comments
　


fights for rights

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  ♦♦♦♦♦♦ Taiwan is ... ?♦♦♦♦ Would the US win a fight against China?♦♦♦♦♦Taiwan president wants a war ?♦♦♦♦♦♦ a proxy war in Taiwan?♦♦♦♦♦No any recall campaign like Taiwan's♦♦♦♦♦RATS at large♦♦♦♦ Taiwan president's personality♦♦♦♦♦a slap in the face to US , a kicking to Taiwan DPP party ♦♦♦♦ Taiwan, a lemon♦♦♦♦ Taiwan's fate♦♦ ♦  Taiwan, a corrupt country ♦♦♦♦♦  Taiwan's military,  in infancy stage♦ ♦♦♦ Taiwanese fake-news strategy♦♦  ♦ Taiwan president shoots in his foot  ♦♦  Taiwan, a prostitute state? ♦♦♦♦  ♦ Taiwan, freedom & democracy? ♦   ♦ US skepticism from Taiwan ♦ ♦ Taiwan leaders - liars?  ♦ ♦ same-sex marriage in Taiwan on purpose ? ♦♦ Taiwan president's secret life?♦ ♦  mind control weaponry in Taiwan  ♦♦  China's invasion of Taiwan ♦♦♦  disinformation, interference from foreign countries  ♦♦  Taiwan - lowest trust rates in the media among democracies

　

　

　

  

 No.1 "opinions Taiwan" on Yandex, 2025-8-11, 2025-8-4, 2025-7-16, 2025-6-23, 5-20, 2025-4-23, 2025-3-6, 2025-2-25, 1-19, 1-11 ;
No.1 "opinion Taiwan" on Yandex, 2025-8-11, 8-4, 2025-7-16, 2025-6-23, 2025-5-20, 2025-4-23, 3-6, 2025-2-25, 2025-1-19, 2025-1-11
　

  
No.1 "opinion on Taiwan" on Yandex, 2025-8-11, 8-4, 2025-7-17, 2025-6-23, 2025-5-20, 2025-4-23, 2025-3-6, 2025-2-25, 2025-2-17, 2025-2-5, 2025-1-19, 2025-1-11, 2025-1-6, 2024-12-24, 2024-12-18 , No.2 at 2025-7-16;  No.1 "opinion Taiwan" on Yandex, 2025-8-11, 8-4, 2025-6-23, 2025-5-20, 2025-4-23, 3-6, 2025-2-25, 2025-1-19, 2025-1-11  (Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen on the pic.)

　

　

Key Findings   ──   Taiwan is ... ?
a country of democracy? ♦ Reporters Without Borders (RSF) Director General (2024-10-20, by CNA): "credibility deficit" is "a real Achilles heel of Taiwanese democracy"; Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism: Only 33 % of respondents said they trusted most news most of the time. 
♦ WSWS.org (USA), 2025-1-6: Ko W.J. MD, the founder and chair of Taiwan's 2nd largest opposition party (TPP), questioned “Does Taiwan have democracy?”─  Taiwanese politics was dominated by corporations and political parties. (also ref to <Foerign Policy> 2015) 
♦ WSWS(2025-4-11):  It is a norm that both KMT and DPP candidates for president must gain approval from the US imperialist bourgeoisie. There are no exceptions.  
a country of corruption? ♦ The Diplomat  (2024-9-11): Corruption and patronage are “in the DNA” of local politics.  “Almost all  [high-level] politicians come from local politics",  "A bottom-up spoils system is thus cultivated"...
♦ Transparency International 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index (released Feb. 2025) : 90% Taiwanese think government corruption is a big problem.
 independent judiciary? ♦ War On The Rocks (2024-9-20): Washington observers might worry that Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te is undermining the independence of the judicial system.
 ♦ Country Reports on Human Rights Practices , 2024-4-22 :   Some political commentators and academics, publicly questioned the impartiality of judges and prosecutors involved in high profile, politically sensitive cases.
 ♦ a majority said they believed prosecutors engage in corruption behaviour when handling cases. / TaiwanPlus, 2023-3-6
a free country? Global Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan are mentally controlling Taiwan people.
an independent country ? ♦ National Interest (2024-7-20) :  Taiwan out to be less of a sovereign state in need of help, and more a vassal state to America.

♦ EurAsian Times (2020-7-9): Taiwan (The Tsai Ing-wen authority) turns to Washington and is willing to be used... Taiwan Now Under "Deep Control" Of The US. (Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan president 2016~2024)

♦ The Taiwan Research Institute, Xiamen University  professor Zheng Jian:  Lai Ching-te (Taiwan president 2024~2028) is compelled to pledge loyalty to the US during his brief "stopover" .   by  Global Times , 2024-12-6
♦ WSWS.org (2025-7-21):  the US under both Biden and Trump has sought to goad China into using its military to take over Taiwan.  Washington plans to transform Taiwan into an Asian Ukraine as a means of triggering a conflict, destabilising China and subordinating it to the economic and strategic interests of US.
a country of free expression ?

The minister of National Defense : whoever's messages or words are to our disadvantage and to the opposite side's advantage,  for our initial judgment, will be sent to  the prosecution/police and investigation.  Going through a long time legal process leads to chilling effect which is the rulers want.  (「任何訊息、言論對我不利，對對方有利，初步就認為是在地協力者」，啟動檢調警國家機器，足以收震懾威嚇之效；再經司法程序一路折騰，即使還其清白，也已被剥掉幾層皮。只准報喜不許唱憂，正是統治者要的寒蟬效應！)  chinatimes.com/opinion/20240312004516-262101?chdtv   udn.com/news/story/7338/7836324?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2  March 2024
chicken leaders Raw Story (2022-8-24): Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) said that "my sense was that Taiwanese leaders were afraid", "They are feeling beleaguered",  “I was impressed with how grateful the Taiwanese leaders seem to be to have us come.”; "now it's every hour there's a Chinese military plane flying overhead of Taipei. So they're feeling much closer to conflict – a conflict they do not want.”
infancy military ♦ Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21:“People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in". 
♦ The Atlantic (2024-10-25) :“Taiwan's military, in a word, is incompetent.”

♦ Stanford Review (2025-2-24) : Taiwan's military is dilapidated.  Surveys indicated most Taiwanese would defend the island if China attacked, and these polls are questionable in their own regard.

♦ National Interest (2023-7-16) :  Taiwanese President   announced  a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received  backlash  from younger Taiwanese.  Roll Call (2022-9-28):  Most people do not want to join the military...
a country of human rights? ♦ Democratic Progressive Party (the ruling party) official website  / Transitional Justice Committee Taiwan 楊翠 : human rights abuses and persecutions by officials in power occur anywhere and anytime in Taiwan, and very likely will occur in the future. (see pic. below)
for details ...  pls. see articles below and links above

　

　

　

　

      
No.1 "opinions on Taiwan" on Yandex, 2025-8-11, 8-4, 2025-7-17, 2025-6-23, 2025-5-20, 4-23, 3-6, 2025-2-25, 2025-2-5, 2025-1-19, 2025-1-11, 2025-1-5, 2024-12-24, 2024-12-23, 2024-12-18, 2024-12-15, 12-14; No.2 at 2025-7-16

 　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣  


☉☉Would the U.S. win a fight against China?  ♦♦Can Taiwan be defended at acceptable cost?
 ☉☉☉☉☉ Poll: As war is coming, nearly every Taiwanese wants peace   ~ ref. Newsweek Oct. 28, 2020
　

　

Real allies ?

 ♦ The Telegraph (2025-7-15): the Australian prime minister said that his country would not join a “hypothetical” conflict with China over Taiwan.  President Donald Trump has echoed this position, while also pushing for Taiwan to do its own part to protect itself. 
 ♦ Foreign Policy Research Institute (2025-7-11): Taiwanese people did not see weapons sales or economic sanctions as evidence of support; instead, they understood the US's hard line against putting boots on the ground as a clear signal that America did not want to defend Taiwan.
 ♦ Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (2025-6-19): Taiwan must turn toward real allies; Taipei should no longer foster relations with microstates that can't help its cause. 

However, who are real allies ?

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):   Since 1945, when the U.S. has gone to war it has usually done so with at least some major allies on its side. A war over Taiwan would be very likely different.  Don't expect US allies to join. Even the most reliable treaty allies, including Japan and Australia, would be reluctant to join what would be a very costly war effort.  All of them stand to lose a great deal if they took up arms against China. 
 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21):  Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to commit troops to save Taiwan, either because they lack the military capability or don't want to risk all-out war with an increasingly formidable China, according to the RAND Corp.; Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China.

　

Japan

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : The US Isn't Alone in Support of Taiwan.    Japan is Taiwan's second-best friend in the world, after the U.S. This is true in peacetime.
  ♣ Wall Street Journal (2023-7-15)  : Getting Japan to engage in the fight directly would be harder. Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.  “If you ask the question of whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan, I think 90% of Japanese people would say ‘no’ at this point," said Satoru Mori, a professor of politics at Keio University in Tokyo;  although simulations conducted earlier this year by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.

 ♣ Financial Review, Australia (2025-7-13) :  The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, A second person said there was a “collective raising of eyebrows” from representatives in Japan, Australia and other US allies.  The Financial Times reported recently that Japan cancelled a high-profile ministerial meeting with the US after Colby abruptly increased the US request for more defence spending.  the push for more spending — including one from Colby that was publicly rebuked by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba — comes ahead of upper house elections on July 20. The official said the US understood that it had to be sensitive to the political considerations of allies.

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):   War with China over Taiwan?  According to a poll for The Asahi Shimbun, just 11 % of Japanese respondents said that their armed forces should join the U.S. in the fighting    The Wall Street Journal reported on Japan's lack of commitment to involve itself directly in the defense of Taiwan.   “Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.” 

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21): Japanese pacifism (both popular and constitutional) and the fear of a retaliatory attack by China are likely to limit Japan's military support for Taiwan, perhaps only to logistics and supplies," RAND said.

 ♣ New Yorker (2022-11-14): With the Japanese, even an attack on the U.S. base in Okinawa would not necessarily trigger self-defense. The concern is partly that the U.S. would not win a fight against China.
  ♣ Asahi News (2023-5-1): Eighty percent of voters said they are worried that Japan would be caught up in the armed conflict if the United States and China clashed over Taiwan, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey.

　

Korea

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):  South Korea likewise has strong incentives to stay out of a Taiwan conflict. Seoul not only has a larger and more immediate threat to worry about in North Korea, but it also cannot afford hostility with China. Like the other allies, South Korea has a huge trade relationship with China that would be wrecked if it joined in a U.S. military campaign. 

 ♣ Pacific Forum, Asia Times (2025-6-12):  South Koreans, who had long seen China as essential not only for economic growth but for a resolution to inter-Korean division.  Washington must first convince regional countries that there is a threat to prepare for and that the United States is the reliable partner it claims to be.

　

Australia

 ♣ New Zealand Herald  (2023-2-13):  The United States is not preparing to go to war against China. The United States is preparing Australia to go to war against China.

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : Australia has a smaller military and is farther away from Taiwan than Americans sometimes imagine.  It is, after all, a democracy. If ever called upon to help defend Taiwan, it will have its own electorate to answer to.
  ♣ Financial Times (2025-7-12)  :The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, in an effort that has frustrated the two most important American allies - the US itself does not give a blank cheque guarantee to Taiwan.  “President Trump has not committed to defend Taiwan, so it is unrealistic for the US to insist on clear commitments from others.”

 ♣ Lowy Institute, Australia (2025-7-14)  : An AUKUS ultimatum for Australia over Taiwan risks backfiring on Washington - US pressure tactics could undermine the Australia alliance it aims to strengthen. Rather than being the actions of a rogue official, there is every reason to assume that Colby’s private pressure has the broader imprimatur of the Trump administration. The background sources quoted for the Financial Times story were all US officials, so it’s clear that the Trump administration is intending to pressure the Albanese government publicly.

 ♣ The Nightly, Australia (2025-7-14)  : “There are no vital interests at stake for Australia — none that would warrant us getting involved in a conflict that could be catastrophic to the extent if the exchange was nuclear,” says Sam Roggeveen, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, a foreign affairs think tank in Sydney.

 ♣ NEWS Australia (2025-7-14)  : the government’s position on Taiwan shows the weakness of Anthony Albanese’s relationship with Donald Trump and could put the AUKUS agreement at risk.

 ♣ Anadolu Agency (2025-7-14): Australia rejects unilateral action on Taiwan: Premier  Anthony Albanese says.

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):   Australia is also unlikely to join the U.S. in a war. The Australian government has been clear that it made no promises to the U.S. that it would take part in a conflict over Taiwan in exchange for the provision of nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS arrangement. Even though Australia has a record of fighting in every major U.S. war since WWII

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2023-2-21): Are we prepared for full-scale conflict? Our panel of national security experts says no. Former prime minister Paul Keating has said Taiwan is “not a vital Australian interest” and described its status as a “civil matter” for China.

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2023-3-9):Australia has many vulnerabilities. It has long and exposed connections to the rest of the world – sea, air and undersea – yet is incapable of protecting them. So its dependency on imports of essentials – including fuel, pharmaceuticals, electronics and weaponry – could be a fatal weakness in a crisis. Australia’s military bases are unprotected and could be disabled quickly. Australia has no long-range military strike power to protect its approaches or hold an enemy at a distance. Overarching all else, it has no national security policy to deal with these vulnerabilities.

 ♣ news.com.au (2023-5-2): Top-secret war-gaming exercises conducted for the Albanese’s government’s defence review concluded Australia would be “f***ed” if China established a military base in a nearby Pacific nation such as the Solomon Islands.  “The role for Australia in a Taiwan contingency is highly unlikely to be at the front line in the Taiwan Strait,” an expert  from the University of Sydney said. The declassified defence review found as it stands, Australia is ill-equipped to defend itself and can no longer rely on “geography or warning time” ahead of conflict in the region.“The rise of the ‘missile age’ in modern warfare, crystallised by the proliferation of long-range precision strike weapons, has radically reduced Australia's geographic benefits, the comfort of distance and our qualitative regional capability edge.”

 ♣ neo (Russia, 2025-6-3): Australia and New Zealand: War Logistics and Symbols of Participation.   The director of a global conflict, casts Canberra as a set, not a character. Submarine program? A technological gift? In reality—a strategic tether. The moment you receive a nuclear toy from the U.S., your foreign policy is no longer written in parliament, but at AUKUS headquarters.

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21):  it still lacks the ability to project and sustain military operations 5,000 miles away in Taiwan.

　

Philippines  

 ♣ Economist (2024-2-21): America has secured access to nine military bases in its former Asian colony.    If America and China came to blows, little would be expected of the Philippines’ 140,000-strong armed forces. They are not equipped to first-world standards and largely focused on counter-insurgency operations.

 ♣ neo (2025-6-3): The Philippines is not just an ally. It is the frontier.  In reality, it’s a shadow play, where every Philippine maneuver echoes a baton waved from across the ocean. Manila performs confrontation like an actor in a bad play, but it’s the Pentagon that holds the curtains. The entire stage, meanwhile, is littered with the traces of transnational corruption and bribery that harm not only the Philippines, The Philippines is no longer just a coastline. It is a living shield, pushed closer to Beijing with American money—but paid for in local blood.
  ♣ Washington Post (2025-7-14): In 2023, the U.S. secured access to four new military sites in the Philippines, Philippine officials have not said whether they would allow these sites to be used as a staging ground for a defense of Taiwan.   Recently, in response to the deployment of advanced American missile systems in the Philippines, China said Manila has “tied itself to the U.S. war chariot".

　

Thailand

 ♣ ResponsibleStatecraft.org (2023-07-17):    Thailand, is even less inclined to have anything to do with such a conflict. Thailand would not be able to do much of anything to assist the U.S. in this war even if it wanted to, and it wouldn't want to.  “Thailand does not view China as a revisionist power or a military threat.” 

　

Singapore 

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  :  Singapore is by far the best peacetime partner Taiwan has in Southeast Asia. Otherwise, it holds its cards close to its chest.

　

India 

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : Its main concern is China's presence in its own neighborhood at sea, but especially along its northern border. It's going to shy away from anything it sees as provocative.

　

Canada

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21): Canada's small military could muster only a token force for Taiwan's defense.

　

EU

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-3-4): Europe has made it clear that Taiwan is not an issue they will intervene for...

 ♣ New York Times (2022-8-3) : No European country, however supportive of democracy, has indicated much willingness to go halfway around the world to help defend Taiwan.

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : The EU is made up of 27 nations.  It's not easy for it to develop consensus, on Taiwan or anything else involving China policy, especially given a couple of Chinese-friendly members with records of obstructing consensus.

　

UK 

 ♣ Business Insider (2024-7-21): Britain's shrinking armed forces, which already have European commitments, would struggle just to dispatch a small carrier task force 6,000 miles to the South China Sea.

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  : There remains a lack of clarity in the U.K.’s approach to the region. The “integrated review”  hedges on China. Taiwan is not mentioned once.

　

France

 ♣ Washington Examiner (2021-10-21)  :The operational drawback with France is the mirror image of the U.K.'s strength. One cannot assume that because we have a common command structure in NATO, and do joint missions in Africa, that the two militaries can easily do the same in the Pacific

　

USA

 ♣ National Interest (2025-5-20):  If war comes, Taiwan's hope and expectation is that the United States will enter the fray.  Wargames point to costly fighting and losses if that happens, including the specter of potential escalation to nuclear war.   Polls repeatedly show that an American majority does not support fighting for Taiwan.

 ♣ Economist (2025-5-1):  Taiwan's main backer, America, grows less reliable.  Elbridge Colby says Taiwan is not an “existential” matter for America and suggests the island cannot be defended at acceptable cost.

 ♣ New York Times, 2025-4-1: Taiwan can no longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now realizing.

 ♣ National Defense Magazine, 2025-7-14: Lack of U.S. participation in Taiwan's largest military exercise (called Han Kuang) a concern, Experts Say; The United States’ absence from Han Kuang not only limits its effectiveness, but also incurs heavy costs in the event of an actual invasion scenario.

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-3-4):  Certainty that American forces won’t intervene on Taiwan's behalf will only embolden the Chinese.  

 ♣ Brookings, 2025-2-12 : Trump said in 2021, if China invades Taiwan, “there isn't a f—ing thing we can do about it.”

 ♣ National Interest  (2025-1-13) : The United States is unlikely to do much of anything to stop the Chinese when they do go forward with their nefarious plans. That’s because the United States and its allies simply lack the political will and the defense industrial base to support the kind of herculean effort that will be needed to defeat a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of the embattled island democracy of Taiwan. 

 ♣ TIME, 2025-2-27:  University of London expert says: I haven't seen any evidence that Trump cares much about Taiwan. 

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2025-2-24): “It's not exactly treating Taiwan the way you treat a friend,” Wen-Ti Sung, a Taipei-based specialist at the Australian National University says.

 ♣ Sydney Morning Herald (2024-1-22 ):  By 2018, Trump's tone had changed. “What do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?” Trump asked aides, according to Bob Woodward's book Fear: Trump in the White House.
  ♣ Chicago tribune (2022-9-23 ): Does the US president not recognize that Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman went on record stating emphatically that Taiwan is part of China? Is he not aware that the whole point of President Richard Nixon’s wise triangular diplomacy in 1972 was to “trade” Taiwan for U.S.-China normalization?

 ♣ WSWS.org (2025-04-11) :  The US military presence in East Asia is unlikely to successfully defend Taiwan, and the cost of conflicts with China is prohibitively expensive. Therefore, the US is more or less prepared to “forsake Taiwan, and to remove it from the first island chain.”

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-2-24): The world is expecting an imminent invasion of Taiwan.  ...The U.S. moves thousands of troops and planes into regional U.S. bases, reinforces air-defense systems, and directs carrier groups to move toward the Western Pacific. The stage is set for a bloody conflict. Yet, those American troops will never even set foot on Taiwan. They will never fire their rifles.

　

Taiwan  
is unserious about its national defense — lacking of ‘will to fight’ ,  slow mobilization,  buying wrong weaponry ...

 ♣ National Interest (2025-5-29): Taiwan is completely unserious about its national defense.
  ♣ Asia Times (2025-5-21): Taiwan is careful not to build up defenses that could actually deter the PLA… for fear that getting close to such a threshold would trigger a PLA invasion.
  ♣ FoxNews (2025-3-2):  Most Taiwanese aren’t willing to make the sacrifices required for victory in war. Migrant workers serving as essentially mercenaries would only highlight how few of our citizens are willing to fight...
 ♣ The Guardian (2025-6-1): A new Taiwanese TV drama, Zero Day, depicts the frightful impact of an invasion on an unprepared nation.
 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-2-24): Morale throughout the military remains strikingly low. Its reserve system is broken and inefficient, raising serious questions about its capability to be mustered in times of war.
  ♣ CNN (2025-6-22):  US officials  quietly warn that Taiwan's reserve forces remain the soft underbelly of its defense posture.  Millions of former conscripts exist “on paper” but years of truncated service and minimal refresher training have left them “underprepared for modern warfare.”
  ♣ Economist (2024-9-5): Taiwan needs to hold out long enough for friends to come to its aid, but polls suggest the will to resist rests, in turn, on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Worryingly... Taiwan can do little to influence American politics.
  ♣ SCMP (2025-6-15): Taiwan war game ( lost control of key outlying territories) triggers US questions over Taiwan's ‘will to fight’ if PLA attacks.
 ♣ New York Times (2025-5-22): critics say that Taiwan's efforts to upgrade military preparations are too superficial and lag China's.

 ♣ Lowy Institute (2025-5-26): Taiwan's defence spending has increased but still falls short of the urgency implied by official rhetoric. Civic mobilisation is growing, but slowly.
 ♣ National Interest (2025-6-6): Not tanks, F-16s, and warships—but rather lots of people and a seemingly endless cache of small arms dispersed throughout the country. Unfortunately, Taiwan's leaders have not adopted this approach—and they're running out of time to change direction.
 ♣ National Interest  (2025-1-13) : substantive numbers of both Taiwanese and Chinese view themselves as siblings from the same culture. Both China and Taiwan’s governments face the problems that there is a clear reticence on the part of their people to fight each other, given these cultural linkages.
 ♣ Economist  (2024-9-5) Taiwan needs to hold out long enough for friends to come to its aid, but polls suggest the will to resist rests, in turn, on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Worryingly, ... Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics.

 

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Ending

 ♣ Foreign Policy in Focus (2023-3-2): Should China launch an all-out invasion, Taiwan would likely succumb within a few days once its air force of just 470 combat aircraft was overwhelmed by the PLA’s 2,900 jet fighters, 2,100 supersonic missiles, and its massive navy,

 ♣ New York Times (2023-2-27): if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly.
 ♣ Newsweek (2020-10-28):  As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll

 ♣ Stanford Review (2025-3-4):  It's likely that in the next 10 years, Taiwan will become just another province of China.

　

Taiwan is not only failing on military reform, but also on legal reform (Corruption and patronage are "in the DNA" of local politics), human rights reform (persecutions remain on the island ... The dark force is hiding like a rat ) ... ...

Jun. 22, 2025, updated 2025-7-15

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣a proxy war in Taiwan ?

♣   

Rand.org (2016) : while planning to win a war with China remains necessary, it is no longer sufficient: The United States must also consider how to limit war and its costs.

　

Proxy war is a good option.  The key to the strategy is to find a committed local partner — a proxy willing to do the killing and dying — and then load it up with the arms, money and intelligence needed to inflict shattering blows on a vulnerable rival.   The US increasingly relies on proxy wars to weaken its main opponents – Russia and China.  Ukraine is a proxy for the US.  Is Taiwan the next one ?

　

♣ WSWS.org (2025-7-28): The US that is accelerating preparations for war with China by seeking to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan — Washington is completely indifferent to the catastrophic impact such a war would have on the Taiwanese population. US imperialism is driven above all by the fear that China’s economic growth is undermining America's global dominance.

　

♣  WSWS.org (2025-7-21):  The US under both Biden and Trump has sought to goad China into using its military to take over Taiwan. Formally, the US still abides by the “One China” policy—but has been systemically undermining it by dispensing with associated diplomatic protocols, arming Taiwan with offensive weapons and stationing US troops on the island. It knows full well that China would answer with force any attempt by Taipei to declare formal independence. Washington plans to transform Taiwan into an Asian Ukraine as a means of triggering a conflict, destabilising China and subordinating it to the economic and strategic interests of US.

　

♣  The Diplomat (2024-11-18):   Trump's inner circle, filled with China hawks, is likely to push for increased militarization of the region and even for a proxy war in Taiwan.  Beijing is unlikely to intentionally provoke a major conflict in the Taiwan Strait, as it believes time is on its side. Taiwan would likely be devastated and economically crippled for decades in the event of a military conflict would be seen by some China hawks as a necessary sacrifice – a price to pay for what they view as the ultimate goal of securing U.S. hegemony.

　

♣  The Hill (2023-9-14):  America has everything in the world to gain from smart, tough and effective competition with China — and everything to lose if relations deteriorate to the point of direct armed conflict.   the devastating cost to America if we were to fight China over Taiwan.   the People's Liberation Army would be severely degraded by any attempt to penetrate Taiwan's defenses. It could take China more than a decade to recover from its losses. We would have the unchallenged upper hand, both regionally as well as globally.

　

♣  Lowy Intitute Australia (2022-8-24): Chih-yu Shih, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, recently commented that the United States is seemingly pushing China towards unifying Taiwan by force.

　

♣ Daily Express UK (2023-2-17): US-China 'proxy war' likely as military expert predicts exact Taiwan invasion date;   In the event of an invasion, Koffler predicts the US would likely employ the same strategy as it has with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict - supplying the necessary military hardware to Taiwan.

　

♣  War On The Rocks  (2023-11-9) :  another narrative held that the US is seeking to provoke a war in the Taiwan Strait in order to protect its regional influence from growing Chinese power, and that Taiwan should be wary of becoming America’s cannon fodder. Of course, such opinions are not in themselves “disinformation,” and there are many in Taiwan who organically hold these opinions.

　

♣  The Rio Times (May 17, 2022): The United States increasingly relies on proxy wars to weaken its direct opponents – currently Russia and China   But Russia is not the geopolitical “main enemy” of the United States. The People’s Republic of China is. That is why Washington is also trying to harness its regional allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and maybe even India) for its interests.  But sooner or later, the U.S. establishment will try to establish Taiwan as “Chinese Ukraine” – and then fight China “to the last Taiwanese” (and, if necessary, to the last Japanese and South Koreans).

　

♣ The WEEK (2023-11-9):  some experts warn that instead of deterring Chinese aggression, "increasingly emphatic US statements and gestures in support of Taiwan's independence could instead accidentally provoke it".

　

♣ Texas National Security Review ) "The Future of Sino-U.S. Proxy War": Taiwan can be considered a U.S. state proxy as well.

　

♣ First Post (India 2024-3-9) :  According to RAND, ... denial by a proxy war with China—like the military aid to Ukraine—entails a lower escalation risk.

　

♣ Financial Times (2024-1-15):  both Putin and Xi argue Ukraine and Taiwan lack any real autonomy, and are being used as tools of a hegemonic and aggressive America.

　

♣  Channel News Asia Singapore (2024-1-7):  The US is using Ukraine to weaken Russia — this is what Defence Secretary (Lloyd) Austin has said himself. If the US has such plans, we’ll be worried if they use Taiwan to weaken Beijing. … Why should we be your proxy?”

　

♣ Asia Times (2024-1-8): As with Ukraine, a proxy war in Taiwan would be waged with “our bullets, their blood,” in the words of one Oliver North.  In fact, the DPP government has already made a decisive step in the direction of turning young Taiwanese into US cannon fodder by extending the period of compulsory military service from four months to one year, beginning in 2024.  That is the “blood” part.  

　

♣ Kyodo News, Japan (2020-1-3):  former KMT presidential spokesman calls the risk for Taiwan a potential "proxy war," a term that evokes past conflicts involving the United States, notably the war in Vietnam.

　

♣ The Hill (2024-1-6) :  Often characterized as a proxy war between the superpowers, China and the US.

　

♣ China Daily (2022-4-6) : Beware US' planned proxy war in Asia /  The US strategic maneuvering on China's periphery is worsening China's security environment, prompting the country to take counter and preemptive measures. What the US and its allies are doing therefore seems intended to turn the Taiwan Straits into the battlefield for another proxy war like the one in Ukraine.

　

♣ Global Times (April 2022) : To avert war, US must stop viewing Taiwan island as a proxy battlefield: Pentagon whistle-blower

　

♣ SCMP (2022-5-26) :Taiwan must not become the second one, yet the opposite seems to be taking shape. As academic Hal Brands pointed out, a proxy is a major power’s committed local partner ready to do the killing and dying. Unfortunately, the Taiwanese government seems to tick these boxes.

　

Taiwan probably is not the only US proxy in the next war.  The Rio Times: Washington is also trying to harness its regional allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and maybe even India) for its interests. 

Financial Review, Australia (2025-7-13):  The Pentagon is pressing Japan and Australia to make clear what role they would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan, in an effort that has frustrated the two most important American allies.  Financial Times, UK (2025-7-12): there was a “collective raising of eyebrows” from representatives in Japan, Australia and other US allies.

2025-7-30

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwanese president wants a war ?

♣   

　

　

　

　

      
No.1 "comment Lai Ching-te" on Yandex, 2025-8-11  (Chinese version)

　

　

　

　

Most top int'l media (e.g., NY Times, CNN, WSJ, DW, AFP, Bloomberg, WP, Reuters, BBC, etc) already made comments on a new Taiwanese TV series《Zero Day Attack》about a fictional Chinese invasion.   Pretty sure the series (about half budget coming from government) in the next a few weeks will not have large-scaled bombing scenes  ──  the horrific scene of Rus-Ukraine war in TV news already scared Taiwan's youngsters and defeated the ruling party in local election (九合一選舉) in 2022.

　

　

Debate 1. 


In the show, the newly-elected president renounced her American citizenship and intended to "send her own son to the battlefield".
But, in reality, according to United Daily (聯合報 2024-10-10 udn.com/news/story/7338/8282146?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub7338_pulldownmenu_v2 ), Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te and high-ranking officials (including the military) are scrambling to avoid the issue  ──  “There are unlimited number of young people ─ except their sons ─  are in supply for dying in battlefield". ('別人家的小孩死不完') 


By contrast,


 ♣  Mao Anying (毛岸英), son of Mao Zedong, was a Chinese military officer educated in Moscow and a veteran of multiple wars was killed in action by an air strike during the Korean War.

♣  Ns.org, National Post (Canada, Nov 13, 2023) :Israeli President Isaac Herzog's sons is fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. "We have not had any contact with him for some time, but we have hope" Israel's first lady said,  "I think for all mothers, for women in general, I think, these days are difficult".

♣  Ukrainska Pravda, Yahoo (February 25, 2023):  Zelensky said that 'This is very important for the president of the state – former or current. When you are up against a warring state, [it's very important] that your children stay here; because the state is here, because young men and women are dying here'.

♣  Business Insider : Prince Andrew served as a Royal Navy helicopter pilot during the Falklands War. Like Prince Harry, Andrew  — is one of the few working royals to have served in active combat.  Many royal family members, like Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Edward, served in the military. Prince William served in the military, Princess Mary and Prince Philip's mother both served as nurses during World War I.

　

Taiwan's next president should do as Zelensky, Mao Zedong, or Isaac Herzog did.  Lai Ching-te's son came back a year ago to support his father's presidential election campaign, soon after that he went back the US.
Only if you encourage your son to go to war then you'll try to avoid an unnecessary war.

　

　

Debate 2. 


In the show, the current president told the president-elect opposing a war with China that the US aircraft carriers is already on standby in the waters of Taiwan, they will provide immediate support if we request it.

　



　

　

♣  UNherd, UK (2025-8-3): The most authoritative CSIS wargame of a Taiwan scenario predicts that the US would almost certainly lose two aircraft carriers during the first week of combat. Likewise, another detailed assessment suggests that the result “might be large portions of the [American] Seventh Fleet at the bottom of the ocean”. That's not even to broach the possible use of nuclear weapons in such a conflict.

♣  Foreign Policy in Focus (2023-3-2):  should China impose a customs blockade on the island, Washington would blink hard at the thought of losing hundreds of aircraft and dozens of warships, including an aircraft carrier or two, and retreat to its longstanding policy of regarding Taiwan as China's territory.

♣  Wall Street Journal (2021-2-1):   American carrier battle groups within hundreds of miles of the Chinese coast would have difficulty surviving a coordinated attack.

♣  First Post, India (2022-6-19):  Warning the US about sending an aircraft carrier to Chinese waters, Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland, recently told CNN, “The US better be careful thinking about in any kind of war environment sending carrier battle groups close to China.”Besides, only around half of the US carriers are combat-ready at any one time. The DF-41, which can carry nuclear warheads, could theoretically hit the US in 30 minutes, according to the CSIS.
　



　

　

　

　

　

Debate 3. 

 

In the show, the current president wants a war to protect Taiwan.

　

But, according to Raw Story (2022-8-24), the best U.S. news and political blog by Editor & Publisher in 2023, Congressman returning from Taiwan said  "My sense was that they (Taiwanese leaders) were afraid", "They are feeling beleaguered”, Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) told Raw Story, fresh off visiting Taiwan with four other lawmakers last week “I was impressed with how grateful the Taiwanese leaders seem to be to have us come", "... they're feeling much closer to conflict – a conflict they do not want.”

　

Do they ... or ... Why do they become brave and want a conflict now ?

　

Deutsche Welle (German, 2025-8-8):  The show's showrunner and screenwriter said that the series' concept was developed through research and consultation with national security experts.

　

Brookings (2024-5-14):  Lai is not a wild-eyed zealot with a one-track-minded focus on Taiwan independence. He is a professional politician who has organized his career around becoming Taiwan's president. Now he will want to win reelection.

　

According to Global Times (2024-10-29) , former legislator (and a widely-known commentator) Cheng Li-wen said that it is clearly Taiwan president Lai is carrying out orders from the US, turning the island of Taiwan into cannon fodder for war.

　

Planning a proxy war can help Lai to win reelection ?  
Fox News (2025-3-2):  Most Taiwanese aren't willing to make the sacrifices required for victory in war.  Talks of enlisting migrant workers into armed forces would only highlight how few of our citizens are willing to fight – even to simply maintain the status quo of de facto independence".

2025-8-9

　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣No recall campaign like Taiwan's 

♣   

NY Times,  2025-7-25: No national-level legislatures worldwide have faced a recall effort as extensive as Taiwan's.

BBC, 2025-7-25: In anti-Recall rallies, large screens played videos of Lai doctored to make him look like Adolf Hitler with the words "Fuhrer Lai", as well as the slogan "Green Terror" .  WSWS.org (2025-7-21): The Financial Times reported  Lai's announcement that he planned to reinstitute military courts, ... such a measure was likely to be highly controversial given that the KMT dictatorship of Chang Kai-shek had ruled through martial law for nearly 40 years.   The Guardian (2025-7-23) : KMT senior official says they are misusing Taiwan's democratic processes to “suppress opposition voices”.
pic:facebook.com/News.Shock/posts/賴獨在講別人獨裁欸/1052838883561556/		 New York Times, 2025-7-25: opponents say "This recall is a fight driven by hatred" ,  Targeted lawmakers were being "totally demonized".

 Reuters, 2025-7-23: "The DPP uses its overwhelming propaganda network to bring up a sense of fear (about China) in Taiwan society," said a professor at National Chengchi University. 

New York Times, 2025-6-30: " Lai Ching-te is trying to fire up his base of support as much as possible in order to ensure the recalls are successful.”
 pic:cw.com.tw/article/5136549		 pic.:  a poster in Recall campaign rallies.
　

The Guardian, 2025-7-23: professor Lev Nachman says : “There’s a difference between anti-DPP and pro-Beijing, but from the recallers’ perspective these have become synonymous.”

★

Taiwan president Lai Ching-te and DPP (the ruling party) are preparing the unprecedented recall vote targeting nearly a fifth of its lawmakers, all from opposition KMT . 

CNN (2025-7-24):  Lev Nachman, a professor at National Taiwan University, says: "Most importantly, this is going to involve questions of defense spending and how the US-Taiwan relationship is going to proceed" .

　

1.   US-Taiwan relationship  or  US-DPP relationship  ?
The US has a tendency towards DPP for a long time.  
 The Jamestown Foundation (2025-7-7): Washington would find a DPP-dominated legislature easier to work with.  The article "Charting a new course for U.S.-Taiwan security" by Elbridge Colby and Pete Hegseth in Washington Times (2024-12-27) writes "With the possibility of recall elections targeting these KMT politicians, Taiwan has an opportunity to confront these internal threats and demonstrate its commitment to national security" -  therefore, apparently, both Colby and Hegseth  'encourage' the Recall.  Yahoo (2025-5-14  tw.news.yahoo.com/柯建銘扯川普合作罷免-國民黨諷刺在夢裡談判-201000636.html )  reported DPP's  Parliamentary Group General Coordinator Ker, Chien-Ming said he is working with Trump on the recall campaign.

　

But Taiwanese don't agree.  Foreign Policy Research Institute (2025-7-25): The most recent polling suggests that the majority of Taiwanese citizens oppose the recall.  New York Times (2025-7-25): Widespread rejection of the recalls... experts say. Surveys suggest that a sizable number of Taiwanese disapprove of mass recalls.  
Because, CNN (2025-7-24): "The recall is totally unconstitutional and undemocratic", said KMT, "It is important for any democracy to maintain check and balance" . 

　

2.   "protecting the nation"  or  Holding more power  ?

The target of the recall vote, certainly, is not what president Lai Ching-te said -  "to protect the nation".  If DPP focuses on "protecting the nation", they should start military reform long time ago.  If the goal is so great, Lai should support the campaign from the very beginning.   Instead, Lai distanced himself from the recall campaign until the possibility of recalls successfully tilting the balance of power in the legislature toward the DPP.  
What Lai really want is to win control of the parliament, and to hold more power. (New York Times, 2025-7-25: recall vote could hand President Lai Ching-te more power by ousting legislative opponents.) so as to give Trump more "protection fee".

　

3.   Where is "protection fee"  ?
CNN (2025-7-24): Lai announced that Taiwan will increase its defense spending to 3% of its GDP ; but this amount is far less than 10% that Trump "urged".  Lai's predecessor Tsai Ing-wen has paid about 800 billion dollars to buy US weaponry (United Daily (聯合報), 2024-7-18).  However, The Guardian  (2024-7-17) ,  The Telegraph (2024-7-17): Trump says that "Taiwan doesn't give us anything.".  Washington Post (2025-7-23):  Some fear that in trying to make a broad trade agreement with Xi, Trump could put Taiwan on the table.

　

4.   US military would come to defend Taiwan
 It is not wise if Lai thinks the US military would come to defend Taiwan for "protection fee".

War on the Rocks (2025-4-16): Many Taiwanese already consider U.S. arms sales as a corrupt form of protection money. As a result, the more weapons the United States sells to Taiwan, the less incentive the Taiwanese people have to provide for their own defense, because they assume the United States will now be “on the hook” to defend them.   Washington Post (2022-11-23): "To mobilize Taiwanese for its own defense, or submit to ... China's Communist Party ". 

　

So, Taiwan's young people still need to be on the bloody battlefield.

　

WSWS.org, 2025-7-21:  the US has insisted that Taiwan purchase drones, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and other weaponry designed to transform the island into a deadly trap for Chinese forces. ── would inflict maximum damage and casualties in the event of a supposed Chinese invasion. ──  'Deadly serious - urban warfare'! Politico (2022-5-19):  U.S. urging Taiwan to follow Ukraine playbook!  at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and millions of people displaced. “If you tell Taiwan, ‘this is the plan for you,’ that's not very comforting”.
　

5.   US plan
 Some Taiwanese may think paying US "protection fee" for deterrence only ?
WSWS.org, 2025-7-21: In reality, the US under both Biden and Trump has sought to goad China into using its military to take over Taiwan.  Washington plans to transform Taiwan into an Asian Ukraine as a means of triggering a conflict, destabilising China and subordinating it to the economic and strategic interests of US.

2025-7-26

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣ ♣  RATS at large

　

At the very beginning of 《Squid Games》season 2,  Gi-Hun (the leading actor "成奇勳") shouted at the invisible man "Don't hide like a sneaky rat",  "Show yourself!"  "I'm going to find you.  No matter where it takes".

　

According to Google AI Overview, "hide like a rat" suggests  a lack of bravery, being not honorable or justifiable.  "Rat" is someone who has done something wrong and is trying to avoid taking responsibility. 

　

　

pic.:  thedirect.com/article/squid-game-gi-hun-dyed-hair-red-season-2

reddit.com/r/squidgame/comments/1hq5w9z/why_did_gihun_dye_his_hair_red/

　

pic.: 

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Alaska_Death_Trap.jpg   itoldya420.getarchive.net/amp/media/jap-trap-nara-515862-8806f3
pics are in the public domain


The series creator stated that the red hair was meant to show Gi-hun's brokenness and  "a symbol of not being normal anymore"


US propaganda cartoon in WWII (in the public domain)

　

Taiwan's the China Times  (Oct. 18, 2007):  In the past seven years during DPP's Chen Shui-bian's tenure of Taiwan's president, Taiwan's lawmakers of both the ruling party and the opposition, even the Speaker of the Congress admitted experiencing being monitored... The state apparatus was in the hands of the government, and no one is allowed to enter the computer room - the investigation results are inconclusive.  

　

A few years later, NEWS Australia (Dec. 2, 2011), AFP (France, Dec. 1, 2011), Yahoo (UK & Ireland, Dec 1, 2011), Bangkok Post (Thailand, Dec. 3, 2011) etc reported that opposition party's vice presidential candidate, Lin Ruey-Shiung, claimed he had come under attack from "electromagnetic waves" launched by KMT party's intelligence unit.   Dr. Lin, a NTU professor, said : "If I hadn't quickly moved out (of my house), I would have lost my mind".   In FTV News (民視  晨新聞 Jan 10, 2012 ), Lin said:  It's more terrifying than "White Terror".

　

One month later, The Guardian, BBC, Washington Post (January 3, 2012), Associated Press

　

After   DPP took the office, DPP was accused of similar things too.  Taiwan's United Daily (聯合報 社論, 2022-6-5) editorial: After coming to power,  the DPP has repeatedly trampled on Taiwanese human rights, what they did is about the same as those of the authoritarian regimes they accused. (民進黨全面執政後，一再留下踐踏人權的紀錄，手段較之他們指責的威權時期毫不遜色 )

　

Just like Taiwan's judicial reform has never succeeded, the sneaky rats become a bully in Taiwan - powerless to stop them ! 

　

The solution to stop this should be    ──   current president Lai Ching-te to declassify persecution archives of recent 40 years.  Take a lesson from former US president Obama, he said : "We make mistakes, we admit them, because 'this is an important step to ensure mistakes won't be repeated' ".

Not doing this, means, very likely, Taiwan's president still need the state apparatus' black hands as well as the judiciary to serve top politicians for their benefits, at the expense of Taiwanese human rights.

　


♣ In U.S. propaganda posters, the Japanese was often pictured in the form of fanged, slit-eyed, devious and frightening animals, such as rats.  Depicting the enemy as an evil, destructive aggressor can instigate hatred and make it easier to rationalize harming or killing them. (cartoon is in the public domain)
 ♣ The Diplomat  (2024-9-11): Corruption and patronage are “in the DNA” of local politics.  “Almost all  [high-level] politicians come from local politics",  "A bottom-up spoils system is thus cultivated"...
Taiwan needs putting more mousetraps for top politicians.  Before that, judicial reform is a must !


♣ subliminal political TV ads Bush for President TV ad - RATS, in which the word "rats" was only visible for 1/30 second.   George W Bush hence was accused of using dirty tricks to leave Gore a subliminal message . New York Times (2000-9-12): experts say there is absolutely no way this can be an accident. When you're running a presidential race, you're really, really super sensitive to every frame of that spot.  The word ''rats'' could have the effect of ''making people feel more negative toward Gore''
 ♣ Taiwanese can make ads. e.g.,     "state appaRATus", "the perpetRATors"  ──   because the human rights persecutions have never end in the past 40 years.

　

　

　


　

cartoons by Zola Zu

2025-7-16

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣ a slap in the face to US , a kicking to DPP party

　

According to Reuters, National Interest (2022-11-30):  some scholars and commentators in the US have argued that the 2022 local election results (the China-friendly KMT party  won) were a slap in the face to US President.   Economist (2022-11-29) says Taiwanese voters give the US-friendly DPP party a kicking, because many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity.

Now the recall results are, again, a slap in the face to US President; and a kicking to DPP party.

　

Below are why DPP was defeated.

　

　

 The Guardian: An existential fight !

　

pro-recall campaigners say ~

anti-recall voters say ~
♣ The Jamestown Foundation (2025-7-7): The pro-recall campaigners rely heavily on "painting red" (抹紅) the KMT by associating them with the CCP's agenda.
♣ Washington Times (2024-12-27), "Elbridge Colby and Pete Hegseth-Charting a new course for U.S.-Taiwan security" writes Taiwan will have to address internal vulnerabilities that undermine its security. One glaring issue is the persistent problem of military information leaks, often linked to certain Kuomintang (KMT) parliamentarians.
 ♣ CNN (2025-7-24): Supporters of the recall movement accuse the KMT of quietly “colluding” with Beijing.  They portrayed recall campaign as “anti-communist,” seeking to get rid of “pro-China” 		♦ Foreign Policy Research Institute (2025-8-7): As professor Lev Nachman  points out, the recall failures illustrate that “accusing everyone of being a Communist party agent is not a winning strategy.”
♦  CNN (2025-7-24):  campaigners have provided little hard evidence.

♦ The Guardian (2025-7-23):  Lev Nachman, a  professor at National Taiwan University said “There's a difference between anti-DPP and pro-Beijing, but from the recallers' perspective these have become synonymous.”
 ♦ Bloomberg (2025-7-28): the campaign's central theme – protecting Taiwan from China and communism – failed to resonate with most voters.
 ♦ Brookings (2025-8-1): Not even accusations of treason were enough to galvanize Taiwan public opinion against the KMT legislators up for recall.
 ♦ The Jamestown Foundation, 2025-7-7: The KMT deny this, and there is no proof of them taking direct orders from the CCP.

♣ BBC (2025-7-25):  Taiwan president William Lai (Ching-te) ordering party officials to assist pro-recall groups to "protect the nation". ♦ Bloomberg (2025-5-20):   Lai's tougher stance may give Beijing more pretext to ramp up pressure on Taiwan. Nearly half of respondents think Taiwan is heading in the wrong direction, and Lai's approval rating has slipped to 32% — his lowest since
♦ Brookings (2025-2-12): Lai Ching-te wants imperial presidency

♦ Reuters  (2025-7-23): The DPP uses its overwhelming propaganda network to bring up a sense of fear (about China) in Taiwan society," said a professor at Taipei's National Chengchi University.

♦ Foreign Policy, 2025-2-3 : Taiwan's parliament once again turned into a pugilistic arena. The ruling party's continuous use of violence in the legislature and rallying of the public against the opposition ...  Engaging in violence in the legislature to prevent bills from being passed, launching what many see as a political witch hunt against the leader of the third party, and attempting politically motivated recalls to target dozens of opposition lawmakers -  in Taiwan, recalls have been wielded in a retaliatory and petty manner as political weapons rather than as legitimate means of kicking bad politicians out of office; all these  damage  Taiwan's  stability.   dnyuz.com/2025/02/03/dont-sleep-on-taiwans-constitutional-crisis/
♣ The Guardian (2025-7-23): Campaigners claim the targeted legislators are too close to China

♣ Reuters, 2025-7-23:  The recall groups accuse the KMT of selling out Taiwan by sending lawmakers to China,

 ♦ Financial Times (2025-7-22): Hoover Institution Templeman: “As the KMT can talk to Beijing . . . they could have a fairly solid argument that they can balance between China and the US better than the DPP can
 ♦ Bloomberg (2025-7-28): most voters are more concerned about livelihood and economic issues.
 ♦ Council on Foreign Relations (2025-7-28): ... the electorate wants a more moderate approach to cross-Strait relations and prompt him to adjust his policies, for instance by facilitating greater cross-Strait people-to-people and scholarly exchanges.
♣ The Guardian (2025-7-23): Campaigners claim they are undermining Taiwan's national security ♦ Bloomberg (2025-5-20):   Lai's policy may result in a tightening of free speech under the guise of national security ... it causes a kind of chilling effect —  a form of self censorship. 
 ♦ ABC News Australia, 2025-5-10: The KMT has denounced the recall effort as a "witch hunt" and an attempt by the DPP to establish one-party rule...launching "a cultural revolution in Taiwan", referencing  the bloody purges in China under Mao Zedong.
 ♦ BBC, 2025-7-25: The opponents characterise William Lai as a fascist and authoritarian traitor of Taiwan's democracy.  Large screens played videos of Lai doctored to make him look like Adolf Hitler with the words "Fuhrer Lai", as well as the slogan "Green Terror"
♣ ABC news Australia, 2025-5-10: The DPP has accused them of blocking legislation, cutting budgets ♦ Newsweek 2025-1-25, The Diplomat, 2025-1-28: TPP claimed that the reduction is only 6.6 percent of the proposed budget and that the remaining budget is “more than sufficient” for the government's operations.  The majority may not support the recalls.
 ♦ The Guardian, 2025-7-23: anti-recall voter said  “These people were elected, and you're wasting resources to try and turn them out,” said Patrick at a pro-opposition rally. “We need to keep the country running smoothly instead of constantly wasting money.”
♣ ABC news Australia, 2025-5-10: The DPP has accused them of paralysing the government. ♦ CNN (2025-7-24):  “The recall is totally unconstitutional and undemocratic,” said KMT vice chairperson . “It is important for any democracy to maintain check and balance.”   Recall, is an abuse of Taiwan's democratic rules, arguing it is a power grab attempt.
 ♦ Forbes (2025-7-27): An important reason why the recall vote was defeated is a testament to the Taiwanese people's desire to maintain a thriving democracy and a semblance of checks and balances, ... to ensure the Republic of China government can maintain democracy which is not ruled by one voice.

♦ The Guardian, 2025-7-23: They are misusing Taiwan's democratic processes to “suppress opposition voices”, a senior KMT official said.  

♣ DW (2025-7-23): Taiwan gov. stated that it was evident and clear that the Chinese Communist Party was attempting to interfere with Taiwan's democratic (Recall) process. ♦ BBC (2025-7-25): Beijing is watching from afar; although Beijing has also waded into the debate (has accused Lai of "engaging in dictatorship under the guise of democracy" and "using every means possible to suppress the opposition")
 ♦ Independent (2025-7-23):  KMT officials distanced themselves from the support voiced by China, insisting the party neither solicited nor welcomed Beijing's backing.

♦  Washington Times (2024-12-27): Colby  (an Undersecretary of Defense for Policy) says  :  The leakage of military secrets and the influence of pro-Beijing elements within Taiwan's political system are critical vulnerabilities.
 ♦ Foreign Policy Research Institute (2025-8-7):  US Senator Dan Sullivan (R–AK) made it as clear when he addressed the KMT  directly, stating, “They are playing a dangerous game on their defense budget.  And if anyone from Taiwan is watching this hearing, they need to realize they are playing a dangerous game.”
 ♦ The China Times, Yahoo (2025-5-14): DPP Caucus chief (黨團總召柯建銘) said he works with D. Trump on recall to get rid of communist Chinese in Taiwan (川普合作，一起剷除共產主義)。

2025-8-11

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣ Taiwan ,  a lemon car !

　

　

　

a classic ad

.tiktok.com/@ad_famous/video/7343333598491135274

adweek.com/brand-marketing/how-volkswagen-just-squandered-55-years-great-advertising-167239/     swipefile.com/volkswagen-lemon-print-ad

　

　

According to New York Times (2022-9-9), In 1973, Taiwan,  an outpost of the American empire in Asia,  was  protected by the American military.  Now, Taiwan  is protected by something far more subtle  ─    The "silicon shield" ─   Taiwan is a colossus in the global market for semiconductors.

As reported by National Review (2024-10-14), The Taiwanese  officials  are  perhaps too confident  that their dominance of the global semiconductor industry  represents a deterrent against aggression  ─   They can hold the world's consumer electronics industry hostage...

　

Through  Biden's  efforts,  Taiwan's  TSMC (Taiwan's leading semiconductor industry )  built  foundries in Arizona; but  such investment will not be enough to satisfy Trump's appetite, what he wants is Taiwan's entire electronic supply chain.

　

More than that, Taiwan's UDN (2025-8-8) writes that the White House wants electronic supply chain as well as TSMC's most advanced tech.

　

WSWS.org (2025-4-24): a Taiwanese scholar  criticised that not only had  Taiwan's president  Lai made no request for tariff reductions from the White House, he was also prepared to go to any length to “win over” the Trump administration.  Lai's ruling party is abject capitulation to Washington.    WSWS.org (2025-3-9): By ceding TSMC to the US, the DPP government had gradually turned Taiwan into Ukraine.

　

Taiwan's UDN (2025-8-10): The Silicon Shield of Taiwan is being taken to the cleaners (護國神山群被整碗端走). The Hill (2025-4-27): Taiwan's semiconductor industry no longer guarantees lasting security. As Taiwan's economic leverage diminishes, the question looms: Will Washington still view it as indispensable?  Many in Taiwan are already concerned. “Once Trump's America gets what it wants — or if you remove the chips from the equation — will the assurance still be there?”

　

POLITICO (2025-7-31): “U.S. trade negotiators are squeezing Taiwan like a lemon”.

“The U.S. wants it all in terms of access to Taiwan's markets”.

　

a sour LEMON

　

In American English slang,  "lemon" represented a "worthless thing, disappointment";"lemon" also ref to a vehicle with significant defect or malfunctions, ......

　

　

international 


Brookings (2025-8-11): U.S.-Taiwan political relations have also soured under Trump.

　

　

domestic

　

Taiwan's president and former presidents have never finished or started a judicial reform or just used legal system as a tool.  War On The Rocks (2024-9-20):  Washington observers might worry that president Lai is undermining the independence of the judicial system...  Taiwan's UDN (2025-8-4): It's common understanding that the prosecutors cooperating with political cases.

　

The Diplomat (2024-9-11): Taiwan's Corruption and patronage are "in the DNA" of local politics.

Washington Post, 2024-5-20:  The ruling party (DPP)   has faced corruption scandals.   Furthermore, the accusation of persecutions never end, e.g.,
Foreign Policy (2025-2-3): Lai Ching-te (DPP) launches what many see as a political witch hunt against the leader of the third party.  Global Times (2025-8-9) : Christian Whiton's (former senior adviser to the US State Department) article titled "How Taiwan Lost Trump"  stated an obvious truth: when the Taiwan island is dragged onto the pro-independence bandwagon by Lai Ching-te - when all his energy is spent on political witch hunts......

　

Taiwan is a lemon car !

2025-8-11

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣ Lai Ching-te's personality


　

Taiwan media : a fighting cock, authoritarian, "Lie Cheater"  ♦ ♦  Western media : reckless, combative, brutal ... ...

　

　
during Lai's president tenure
◆ Foreign Affairs (2025-8-1): Numerous KMT politicians, meanwhile, have accused Lai of brutal, authoritarian behavior.  KMT leader Eric Chu compared  Lai to Adolf Hitler. The island's third-biggest party,  Taiwan People's Party, also deeply detests the DPP government. The TPP's leader is facing corruption charges, and the party claims it is being politically persecuted.

◆ New York Times (2024-1-13): professor commented that Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure”

◆ Washington Post (2025-1-17): With Ko's indictment, the KMT and TPP are accusing Lai Ching-te of abusing his powers to politically influence the judiciary.  Ko's supporters say are politically motivated. “It's political persecution",  "an end to “DPP tyranny”.   In last year's presidential election, Ko with his party's strong performance key to why Lai's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its legislative majority.

◆ New York Times (2024-12-26): Ko has denied the charges and said that he was the victim of a political vendetta mounted by Mr. Lai's government... supporters gathered in protests, arguing that the allegations were  flimsy and politically motivated, and that seemingly corrupt politicians from Mr. Lai's DPParty had been spared investigations.    “What's important to keep in mind is that the sort of political force that he awakened in Taiwan is not going to go away,” said  Lev Nachman, a political scientist at NCCU.  

◆ War On The Rocks (2024-9-20):  The arrest and detention of Taiwan People's Party chairman and former Taipei City Mayor Ko Wen-je on corruption charges... have Lai's critics protesting that he is using the judiciary to persecute rivals.  Washington observers might worry that Lai is undermining the independence of the judicial system...

◆ Financial Times (UK), 2024-9-6: Prosecutors' swift moves against Cheng (former premier 鄭文燦) and Ko Wen-je (Chairman of TPP) have prompted Taiwanese commentators to question whether Lai was “cleaning house” of political rivals or pushing an anti-corruption crackdown to win back public support
◆ TIME, 2025-8-1: President William Lai's administration is engaged in recalls against opposition lawmakers, in a move widely seen as trying to gain more power.
 ◆ New York Times, 2025-7-26: Lev Nachman says there is going to be some need for self-reflection about how Lai Ching-te presents himself and the party.  But, United Daily (聯合報, 2025-8-2): Lai's personality is Stubborn and "No reflection" (性格硬拗 、不知反省); He believes power, instead of professional or ability;  Lai is not pragmatic and so arrogant as to "beyond the system" (不務實，已到了近乎虛妄的地步。獨步全球的「清德式傲慢」， 自視「超乎體制」udn.com/news/story/7338/8912692?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate).
 ◆ United Daily (聯合報, 2025-5-7), China Times (2024-10-24): Lai Ching-te is a "fighting cock" president (「直球對決」鬥雞性格鮮明). UDN (2025-2-23): Lai specializes in bullying ordinary people and disadvantage groups (專砍人民和弱勢).   United Daily (聯合報, 2025-2-10, 2025-1-24): Lai's political personality is headstrong (剛愎); his personality is haughty and arrogant (傲慢恐不輸尹錫悅).
 ◆ Global Times (2025-8-2) : Many major US trading partners - such as the EU and Japan - also confronted Washington to varying degrees in defense of their own interests.  In comparison, the Lai authorities have shown a swift and complete capitulation that is astonishing.  A poll on July 31 shows that both public satisfaction with Lai authorities and personal trust in him have hit new lows. Some analysts in Taiwan believe that the core issue lies in his "incompetent governance".

◆  Dominotheory (2025-1-6) :  The difference Kolas Yotaka sees between Lai and all presidents since 1996 is that Lai is more direct and she thinks he is more obvious with the public.
 ◆ according to CNBC (2024-5-24), Chinese vessels entered Taiwan's 'forbidden water'  ( Taiwan was inactive - although earlier Taiwan declared it will shoot).
 ◆ according to The Liberty Times (2025-3-11, 自由時報) ,  president Lai stressed that the government will accelerate the opening of political archives about persecutions.  But to say is one thing, to do is another, till present.

Before Lai's presidency tenure

◆ The Guardian (2024-5-18):  They describe the 64-year-old as driven, compassionate and principled, but also stubborn and hot-tempered. 

◆ Washington Post (2024/01/13):  Early on, Lai was idealistic and quite serious about his work; Close associates from his Tainan days describe him as solemn and focused on the minutia of policies.   He almost always wore a suit and would call out colleagues for underdressing. The only time he really seemed to relax was when talking about his — and arguably Taiwan's — favorite sport: Baseball.  Despite being softly spoken, he didn't shy away from fights as a young lawmaker.

◆ NY Times (2024-1-14):   A former doctor with a humble background, Mr. Lai is seen as more attuned to the mood of Taiwan's people than to the perilous nuances of dealing with Beijing.

◆ Bloomberg (2023-8-14):  He's soft-spoken and mild-mannered; setting aside his handsome, youthful face, Lai's election ... could start a war that, as an opposition politician puts it, “opens the doors to hell.”  in Taiwan's turbulent politics, Lai comes across as less of a firebrand than measured and calculating. 

◆ Bloomberg (2023-8-14):   China said that “Lai's comments on so-called maintaining the peaceful status quo are totally a lie,” the statement says. “Such a person will only bring risks of fierce war.” The opposition's narrative about Lai—that he represents an uncertainty that “opens the doors to hell,”

◆ SCMP ( Jan 19, 2024) — William Lai is known to be headstrong and pro-independence.

◆ New York Times (2024-1-13): Chinese officials painted Mr. Lai as a villain, calling him a stubborn “Taiwan independence worker,” a “destroyer of cross-strait peace” and potentially the “creator of a dangerous war.”

◆ Global Times (2023-8-23):   Nicknamed "political chameleon," Lai is opportunistic. When you check his political maneuvers in the past, it is so clear that he always puts personal gains above the interests of his party and the local people.
 ◆ China Times (中時, 2024-4-7): Lai Ching-te wants to restrict freedom of speech, even shapes anti-government speech into cognitive warfare - any message or speech that favors the opponents instead of the government, you will be defamed (or 'poisoning the well') as a supporter or collaborator of China. (任何訊息、言論只要對政府不利，對敵對者有利，就會被視為是認知作戰的「在地協力者」，遭到抹紅、抹黑)

◆  Global Times (2023-8-14):  Lai's nickname in Taiwan is 'Lie Cheater' which sounds similar to his full name 'Lai Ching-te.'

◆  Global Times (2024-10-29) :  former legislator Cheng Li-wen criticized to the media while noting that it is clearly Lai carrying out orders from the US, turning the island of Taiwan into cannon fodder for war.
2025-8-3

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwan's fate  

♣   

　

Trump defends Taiwan ???
 Fox News (2025-2-7) Trump's comments on the campaign trail suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of the island democracy.
 Newsweek (2025-1-3) Trump, who positioned himself as being tough on China, has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China
 Telegraph (2025-1-13) Trump has pledged not to allow the US to become involved in foreign wars
 National Interest  (2025-1-13) Why Trump Won't Defend Taiwan - Waging World War III for Taiwan—or any small nation, for that matter—would not be in keeping with the predilections and preferences of the incoming US president.   The United States is unlikely to do much of anything to stop the Chinese when they do go forward with their nefarious plans. That's because the United States and its allies simply lack the political will and the defense industrial base to support the kind of herculean effort that will be needed to defeat a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of the embattled island democracy of Taiwan. 
 New York Times (2024-11-7)  Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say, ... defending Taiwan is not in our interest.”
 Independent (2024-7-21) a defence analyst: “Trump has never been a fan of defending Taiwan, and his latest comments simply reconfirm that his position is quite dug in..."    expert: it appears a second Trump presidency could see Taiwan “treated as a bargaining chip” for negotiations with China.
 Washington Post (2024-11-7)  Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense
 Newsweek (2024-11-7)  It's true that Trump has made a number of statements, including recently, suggesting that Taiwan could not be defended or even should not be defended.
 TIME  (2024-11-8)  RSIS's scholar tells TIME that Trump may choose to avoid U.S. involvement in potential conflict by striking a deal with Beijing.
War On The Rocks Government efforts to catalyze national will are essential before conflict.  but U.S. officials have not explained why Taiwan is worth a war. most Americans are opposed  U.S. troops defending Taiwan despite believing China critically threatens U.S. “vital interests.” Americans do not understand the stakes.
Sydney Morning Herald (2024-1-22)  By 2018, Trump's tone had changed. “What do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?” Trump asked aides.    ( Bob Woodward's book Fear: Trump in the White House.)  
Politico (2021-3-15) Trump: "If they invade, there isn't a f---ing thing we can do about it."
Washington Examiner (2023-9-6) This language suggests Trump's belief that a U.S. military intervention over Taiwan would be tantamount to nuclear war.   It strongly implies that he would be unwilling to risk using U.S. military force over Taiwan.
New York Times (2024-11-10) Trump told Washington Post: “Don't forget, it's 9,000 miles away” from the United States
BBC ( 2024-10-19) “I would say: if you go into Taiwan, I'm sorry to do this, I’m going to tax you at 150% to 200%,” he said.
The War Zone (2024-11-15)  Senior Lecturer at the University of Zurich and Director of the Taiwan Studies Project :  Rather than considering Taiwan as a democracy worth protecting in its own right, Taiwan is now a card to be played in Trump'’s transactional strategies
CNN (2024-12-15) Asked by the Wall Street Journal if he would use military force against a blockade on Taiwan by China, Trump said it would not come to that

　

If any means other than U.S. military intervention over Taiwan is working, US troops need not to be stationed in Japan, or S. Korea.

　

How can Taiwan protect itself ?

　

n 1. Relying on “silicon shield”  ?   ──   But,  CNN (2024-12-15) : Trump's remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace.  A move like that could affect the island's economic security and dismantle the very “silicon shield” .

n 2. Relying on Taiwan's military ?  ──   But, Washington Examiner (2025-1-29):  Taiwan would stand little chance of defeating an invasion or embargo without U.S. help.

n 3. Peaceful dialogue with China ?  Reuters (2025-2-3):  Taiwan and China need to talk to each other to achieve peace, Taiwan's President Lai says.   But, Reuters (2024-10-10): China said Lai was a stubborn adherent of Taiwan independence, full of confrontational thinking, "constantly provoking troubles and deliberately aggravating cross-strait tensions".  The Telegraph  (2024-10-10): New Taiwan president Lai vows to 'resist annexation' from China.  A scholar at Illinois State U. on East Asia Forum (2025-2-6) says : Lai's statement that "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other" further infuriated Beijing's leaders.

n 4. Paying the US money?   ──    Politico (2025-1-30) : Trump said the island should pay the U.S. for protection from China and suggested that trying to defend the island would be futile. 
Trump himself recently insisted that Taiwan “should spend 10” percent of GDP on defense; However, it is difficult for Taiwan to dramatically increase defense spending in the years ahead.  Moreover,  opposition lawmakers just moved to freeze some of Taiwan's military expenditures. 

　

The Times (UK, 2025-2-4):  ... It might suit Donald Trump to sell out Taiwan.

2025-2-6

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwan, a prostitute state ?

♣   

　

Stanford Review (2025-3-4): "Russia is a Prostitute State. Its Biggest Customer is China".  The article says Russia continually sells itself out to the real winner of the war in Ukraine.

　

Although the metaphor is vivid and interesting, it seems not very accurate.

　

Russia is a Prostitute State ?

　

The definition of "prostitute" is not just voluntarily exchanging one's body for money,  it might also include "being used (as a plaything or ...)",  or/and  "being looked down upon"   ; otherwise all physical labor jobs are prostitution.

　

Russia and China still seem buddy buddy.  The Hill (2023-2-21): China has subverted Western economic  sanctions  by massively increasing its purchases of Russian oil.  Having paid no unacceptable price for working against the world's interests in stopping Russia's aggression, Beijing may up the ante and provide its “no-limits strategic partner” with lethal systems. Australia's The Conversation (2024-6-12):  China are actively supplying weapons to sustain its war in Ukraine ps.  Washington Examiner (2024-12-13): Beijing has played a key role in fueling Russian's war in Ukraine.  Beijing's assistance is helping Moscow circumvent sanctions and they are “basically being applied directly to the Russian war machine.” In exchange for this crucial support, Russia is providing China with the latest in military tech., to include submarine, missile, and stealth technology.

　

Russia has never sold its priceless state assets or national treasure, unlike Greece floated the idea of selling some of its islands as part of its debt reduction strategy.

　

Ukraine is more like a Prostitute

　

Ukraine appeared much more like a prostitute.  John Mearsheimer, a top International Relations scholar, said : What we [the West] are doing is encouraging the Ukrainians to play tough with the Russians. We're encouraging the Ukrainians to think that they will ultimately become part of the West,“The Ukrainians are playing along with this, and are almost completely unwilling to compromise with the Russians and, instead, ... the end result is that their country is going to be wrecked. And what we're doing is, in fact, encouraging that outcome".  WSWS.org (USA 2025-3-1):  the Bush administration in 2008 declared that Ukraine “will become” a NATO member;  Although,  "My (Nato's) heart says yes. but my head says no." (Washington Post, 2023-7-9).

　

According to Washington Post and Bloomberg (May 10, 2022): During the Cold War, the  Soviet Union  bled the  U.S.  by supporting communist proxies in Korea  and  Vietnam. The U.S.  would“do to the Soviets what they have been doing to us”   ──   getting revenge by waging one of the most ruthlessly effectively proxy wars in modern history in Ukraine "at a very low cost ..."    ──  The Ukrainians have been willing, in many  cases, to fight to the last man;  despite the fact that the US being hesitant and cautious about the quality and quantity of arms they send to Ukraine, which kept both Ukraine and Russia in the fight long enough to impose sufficient casualties and pain...  New York Times (2025-6-4):  Troop casualties in Ukraine near 1.4 million, a study found. 

　

After taking the office, Trump scorns Ukraine as a small country that foolishly imagines it can defy a larger neighbour (Economist, 2025-6-10), and Trump said : "We're going to get our  money  back  because  it's  just  not  fair" (Fortune, 2025-2-23).  

　

Is Taiwan another Prostitute ??

　

♣TIME (2024-6-13): “Enough politicians want to play around with Taiwan" .  "One of William Lai's biggest problems is going to be America” .
 ♣Business Insider (2024-11-9):  Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it.    A researcher at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies:  it's highly unlikely the US would send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.

♣Global Times (2025-6-25):  Beijing slams Taiwan's authority have shown servility and submission to "sell out" Taiwan amid US tariff.  In March, Taiwan's TSMC gave the US its most advanced process and a new R&D center — a critical part of the technology supply chain that the company has never moved outside of Taiwan (ref. ABC  breaking news youtube.com/watch?v=fYsGXj_ZSAQ), but the US still imposed 32 percent "reciprocal" tariffs on most imports from the Taiwan.  TSMC has been dubbed Taiwan's "Sacred Mountain" (or "Silicon shield") due to its critical role in global semiconductor industry, so as to protect Taiwan from China's invasion. TSMC is Taiwan's priceless state asset.

♣Brookings (2024-11-8): The DPP  (Taiwan's ruling party) believes deterrence—including reliance on the American shield—is Taiwan's only guarantee of survival.   But  Financial(2024-6-16) : Xi Jinping claimed US wants (tricks, lures) China to attack Taiwan   ft.com/content/7d6ca06c-d098-4a48-818e-112b97a9497a

♣Eurasian Times (7-9-2020): Taiwan's authority ... turns to Washington and is willing to be used.  Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US.

♣ New York Times (9-18-2020): Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States,... Taiwan has become "the meat on others’ chopping blocks”.
♣ SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu",  When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, "Taiwan has long been on the menu."

♣Global Times (2023-8-10) : According to a VOA Chinese-language article (June 28, 2023) and The Defense Post (Dec. 2022), an expert said  "To the US, Taiwan authorities are born suckers being taken for a ride."

♣The Interpreter , The LOWY Institute (6-16-2020)  : treating Taiwan as a conduit(tool) to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security... and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.
 Economist (2025-6-10): Mr Trump has long scoffed at Taiwan's prospects in a fight with China. 
♣The Taiwan Research Institute, Xiamen University, prof. Zheng Jian  said: "Lai is compelled to pledge loyalty to the US during his brief 'stopover' " . ( Global Times , 2024-12-6 )

　

A Prostitute being raped ??

　

Taiwan's presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) said in his Washington DC campaign in 2007 :  "Taiwan in the past was like a  taxi dancer in dancing hall, swaying back and forth voluptuously with any patron/client who pay for each dance" ( 過去的台灣就像舞女一樣，「誰來就跟誰搖來搖去」)。  "Taiwan will no long be a taxi dancer" !! (台灣以後不必再像舞女一樣，陪不同的外來政權搖來搖去) (The Liberty Times,  2007-7-24)
Today's Taiwan has "upgraded" from a taxi dancer to a prostitute ??  or a prostitute being raped ?

2025-6-29

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

　

ps: TASS (2025-7-4): China does not supply lethal weapons to either side of the conflict.
ps: CNN (2025-7-4): China tells EU it can't accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine, official says.
ps: BBC (2016-5-2), CNN (2016-5-2): Trump: China is "raping our country".

ps: NIH.gov:  As adults in prostitution, 82% had been physically assaulted; 83% had been threatened with a weapon; 68% had been raped while working as prostitutes; pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9698636/

　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwanese fake-news strategy - 2 examples  

♣   

　

Taiwan's poll/surveys, e.g., Taipei Times (2021-12-30), says 3/4 Taiwanese are willing to fight if Chinese PLA invades.  But the westerners don't believe that.

media comments
Fox News, 2025-3-2 Most Taiwanese aren't willing to make the sacrifices required for victory in war. Migrant workers serving as essentially mercenaries would only highlight how few of our citizens are willing to fight . 
Stanford Review, 2025-2-24 Despite public surveys indicating most Taiwanese would defend the island if China attacked and these polls are questionable in their own regard
Texas Public Policy Foundation ,  2023-8-29 almost three-quarters of Taiwanese say they would be willing to fight if communist China invades.  But saying you’re willing to fight and actually taking up arms are two different things.
Washington Examiner, 2022-9-19  It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps.
Economist , 2022-3-5 American security types have long grumbled that Taiwanese, especially the young, seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. They will take comfort from the mood change. A more substantive concern has been Taiwan’s sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence.
BBC (2018-4-21) similar reports

For a long time, Taiwan government has tried to fool Taiwan's people that American troops will come to rescue...
media comments
The American Conservative (2024-10-11) there is a prevalent assumption, encouraged by both the DPP (Taiwan's ruling party) and certain parts of the U.S. foreign policy establishment, that America will unquestionably intervene in the event of an invasion.
Taiwan's United Daily  (聯合報  2024-10-8, 2024-10-23,  2022-4-5) The DPP has repeatedly tried to convince Taiwanese of American troop's intervention. 

綠營一向宣傳美軍會來馳援。綠營與側翼長期釋放美國會出兵保台的訊息。民進黨始終用各種明示暗示手法，讓國人相信美軍會來救。


Stanford (2025-2-24): those American troops will never even set foot on Taiwan. They will never fire their rifles... Fox News (2025-3-2): Taiwanese expert says: I understand the logic behind the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, but I fear far too many Taiwanese people – especially younger people – are counting on a rescue from Uncle Sam".

The public trust on Taiwan's politicians is very low.  (民調顯示，台灣人民認為政治人物重視專業倫理、值得信任的比率僅2.3％，五成六民眾指民代最重視「個人利益」，僅9.3％認為他們重視「國家利益」-  自由時報 7-21-2020 社論)

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwan's determination to resist China  

♣   

　

    Taiwan's determination to fight

Taiwan

 prominent Republicans, e.g., JD Vance, Elbridge Colby, etc
♦ Politico (2024-11-23): Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said that the United States should prioritize helping Ukraine despite the looming threat of a Chinese cross-strait invasion of the self-governing island.

　

♦ According to Brookings (2024-5-14), Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is not a wild-eyed zealot with a one-track-minded focus on Taiwan independence. He is a professional politician who has organized his career around becoming Taiwan's president.  Now he will want to win reelection. 

　

 If Taiwan's president (Lai Ching-te or Tsai Ing-wen)  has the determination to fight until the end, they could change Taiwan's military service system (National Interest , 2024-7-30: Taiwan does not have a strong draft ) ; but pro. politicians have electoral considerations.  Military reform is not very popular to youngsters.

　

♦ The Conversation (2024-8-16, Australia): According to some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price ( in terms of lost lives and a shattered economy, like Ukraine does ) to preserve its political autonomy. 

　

♦ National Interest (2024-7-30): Taiwan's politicians likely realize better than Washington that Taiwanese voters may not be as inclined to make the kind of heavy sacrifices that are necessary to defend their freedom as the Ukrainians, Israelis, Finns, or Swiss.

　

 ♦ CFR.org (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-7-19):  Vance recently stated, “the thing that we can control now is making it costly for them to invade Taiwan, and we're not doing that because we're sending all the damn weapons to Ukraine and not Taiwan.”

 ♦ American Reservative  (2024-7-6) Taiwan's government often argues that its security is closely linked to that of Ukraine, the world should be “defending Taiwan by defending Ukraine”;  U.S. military support for Ukraine “does not detract from the defense of places such as Taiwan.” Unfortunately, this simply isn't true. 

　

♦ Elbridge Colby (May 11 2024, Taipei Times):  China could strike with little warning.   There are few visible indicators of a society preparing to repel an attack as one might see in, say, Israel.    Taiwan may be banking on the idea that China will not invade.   Taiwan may be thinking that,  the US can always be counted on to come to its rescue.  But our leaders cannot and realistically will not ask the American people to sacrifice for Taiwan at a cost that would be intolerable to the US.

　

♦ Politico (2024-11-23): U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. Samuel Paparo said  that supplying weapons to Ukraine had begun to affect the U.S. military's ability to prepare for a conflict in Asia.

2024-11-29

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwan's military   ──   in the stage of infancy ♣ 

♣   

　

Military Structure
　

Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21: an expert of the Atlantic Council said, “People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in"; "They have to start training them to do very basic things".    the Taiwan military's core problem, is operational-level and tactical-level decision-making", Their structure is very hierarchical, almost Soviet-style."  The biggest problem was the general staff's planning process, they need to learn to adapt operational plans to a changing situation in wartime in rapid, live planning cycles.  

　

Taiwan leaders

　

National Interest (2024-7-20) : ...... Taiwan out to be less of a sovereign state in need of help, and more a vassal state to America. it would  appear  that the main aim of Taiwan's national defense  is to wait for the Americans and their allies to come rolling in ...Taiwanese leaders need to know how unlikely this reality is.

Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) :  Given these electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces—while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.

　

Weapons

　

nAssociated Press (2023-10-9) : Some in Congress want to cut Ukraine aid and boost Taiwan's.  But Taiwan sees its fate tied to Kyiv's    New York Times (2023-5-30)  : Taiwan Ambassador Hsiao Bi-Khim (current vice president) rebuted those arguments and says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter China.    "I think pushing back on aggression is the key message that will help to deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way”.  

Taiwan's former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu ( 吳釗燮, current Secretary General of Taiwan's National Security Council) thinks the same - the world should be “defending Taiwan by defending Ukraine.  He made it clear that linking Taiwan to Ukraine is a priority of Taiwan's government.  

nAmerican Reservative  (2024-7-6) : Wu went further, however, with the unqualified statement that U.S. military support for Ukraine “does not detract from the defense of places such as Taiwan.” Unfortunately, this simply isn't true. 

nElbridge Colby (Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1) said that Hsiao's suggestion that weapons stocks don't matter is particularly ridiculous.  Still, Taiwan definitely needs Stingers, Javelins, and Patriot missiles — and a lot of them. Unfortunately, Stingers don't grow on trees.   "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out? How much should Americans be willing to suffer if Taiwan isn't even prepared to advocate for its own defense?  Taiwan's defense is already a tough case. She's making it a lot tougher."

nCFR.org (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-7-19): Some prominent Republicans, including Vance, have argued that providing military assistance to Ukraine detracts from the ability to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
 nWashington Examiner (2024-7-19) : Taiwanese leaders have also, if unintentionally, encouraged the United States to prioritize aiding Ukraine over boosting American capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. This, too, is a mistake.   A Sino-American conflict would be the most devastating war in more than half a century, likely leaving many thousands of Americans dead and entailing attacks on the homeland. Americans can't, and shouldn't, be expected to fight and die for a nation that won't protect itself. 

　

The public

　

Some media publicize fake news - most Taiwanese are willing to join the army.

　

nNational Interest, 2023-7-16 :  Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen  announced  a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received  backlash  from younger Taiwanese.

n Roll Call, 2022-9-28:  Most people do not want to join the military...  general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to 50 and their children, will fight against that policy...

n Washington Examiner, 2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country.  It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality.  And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps.

n China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year.   World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are willing to be on the battlefield.   chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv

nFinancial Times, 2022-12-27:  The conscription reform follows years of increasing US pressure on Taiwan to strengthen its defences.   Financial Times (UK), 2021-9-15 : Washington keeps scolding Taipei over its supposed lack of preparation against an ever mightier Beijing. 

　

　

Military capacity - to resist an attack by China

　

nWall Street Journal (2024-7-18): Taiwan would struggle to defend itself alone from an amphibious assault or blockade even with heroic military effort.  

nTaiwan's United Daily (2024-3-14,  udn.com/news/story/6656/7830786?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2): Former minister of Defense Li (李傑) said we can resist 2 weeks to wait the US comes to help;  another former minister Yen (嚴明) said one month, former minister Gao (高華柱) said at least one month,  former chief of the general staff Liu (劉和謙) said two weeks ...

　

nBarron's,  AFP (France),  2024-7-22: Japan has reportedly concluded that a ground landing in Taiwan by Chinese troops would now be "possible in less than a week" instead of the previous estimate of a month.    NBC News (2024-5-28): expert says the Chinese military could seize Taiwan's government buildings in under an hour   nbcnews.com/now/video/expert-says-the-chinese-military-could-seize-taiwan-s-government-buildings-in-under-an-hour-211721797548

　

nShould the US will come to rescue, how long does it take ?  RAND ( Jun. 2023) (rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1658-1.html)  :   Taiwan's capacity to resist an attack by China for 90 days—the amount of time plausibly required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out an intervention in East Asia.

　

Military budget

　

nJapan's Kyodo News (2023-7-28):   The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor," and the gap appears to be growing year by year."

Semafor (2024-7-19) :  Elbridge Colby has suggested the island spend between 5% and 10% of its GDP on defense.

nTaiwan's current budget -  2.5% of its GDP .   A member of KMT lawmaker Ko said "at least 5% of its GDP on defense" would likely be impossible to achieve. 

nNew York Post (2024-7-22): Taiwan reacts to Trump's they "should pay us for defense" comments -  Reactions were mixed - some expressing varying degrees of agreement and others pointing out that Taiwan is still waiting for some $19 billion worth of already-purchased American weapons. 

　

nSCMP (2024-7-21): Under the previous Trump administration, US arms sales to Taiwan reached a record high of US$18.3 billion over four years, compared to the US$6.3 billion so far during the presidency of Joe Biden.  However, Associated Press (2023-10-9):  as much as $19 billion worth of weapons sold to Taiwan have been delayed.  (They have not come till present Jul. 25, 2024 )

　

nIndependent (UK, 2024-7-21):  there are no legal guarantees that a new resident of the White House couldn't cancel these transfers by executive order, if they deemed it to be in the US's interests.   Asia Times (2023-1-7):  NDAA ─  Typical of Washington chicanery, Taipei pays first for a possible future delivery of advanced weapons. Based on past records, Taipei holding an empty bag is not beyond the realm.  asiatimes.com/2023/01/2023-bodes-poorly-for-us-international-relations/   Fox News (2024-7-22), Cato Institute: According to the Cato Institute, Taiwan on average waits longer than other nations for the delivery of weapons, especially HIMARS, newly built F-16s, and Abrams tanks.  


　

　

************ ENDING  ***************

　

The US sold F35 and JASSM etc to Japan, however, The Hill (2022-11-29):  American administrations consistently have refused to sell Taiwan advanced fighter aircraft, diesel submarines and other weapons systems that could threaten Chinese assets and potentially deter Beijing from initiating a conflict.

　

Bloomberg (2024-7-22): Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te urges DPP (the ruling party) to protect Taiwan sovereignty.  However,  National Interest (2024-7-20) : ...  Taiwan out to be less of a sovereign state in need of help, and more a vassal state to America.   Eurasian Times  (7-9-2020) : The (Taiwan) authority turns to Washington and is willing to be used.  Taiwan now under "Deep Control" of the US.   

　

Focus Taiwan (2024-2-23): More than 80 percent of Taiwanese people want to maintain the status quo with China.  But things may change.  Brookings (1-22-2021):  Only 23% (Taiwanese) thought that democracy was more important than economic development.  16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than reducing economic inequality

2024-7-25   

　

　

OPinion  ♣Taiwan, a corrupt country.   

"cleaning house " or   anti-corruption crackdown ?     

　

　

　
War On The Rocks (2024-9-20): Washington is quietly watching how Taiwan's new president Lai consolidates power, using the court to prosecute former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan over corruption allegations.  Cheng's arrest reflects an intra-party political struggle between a pair of long-time rivals.  The arrest and detention of Taiwan People's Party chairman and former Taipei City Mayor Ko Wen-je on corruption charges, as well as a number of corruption cases involving Kuomintang (KMT) officials have Lai's critics protesting that he is using the judiciary to persecute rivals.  Washington observers might worry that Lai is undermining the independence of the judicial system...

Targeting selected individual or group is tantamount to a persecution.  Lai should promote judicial reform, as well as crackdown corruption, particularly corrupt DPP.

　

　

Financial Times (2024-9-6):  Prosecutors' swift moves against Cheng Wen-tsan and Ko have prompted Taiwanese commentators to question whether Lai was “cleaning house” of political rivals or pushing an anti-corruption crackdown to win back public support , and at the same time divert attention from the current chaos in domestic politics.    Investigators in Taiwan have detained former presidential candidate Ko Wen-je, the second prominent politician to be hit with a corruption probe since President Lai Ching-te took office in May.

"Coincidently", both chair of TPP, Ko Wei-je and Cheng Wen-tsan (former vice premier)  are chair of DPP Lai Ching-te's political reval or political enemy.   (Council on Foreign relations, 2024-9-5: Ko was widely seen as having outperformed expectations and as someone who would again run for president. Independent UK, 2024-7-12: Mr Cheng was seen as a potential presidential contender.  )  Nikkei Asian Review (Japan, 2024-9-5): expert warned that the DPP will go after the KMT (No.1 opposition party) once the threat posed by Ko is removed. "Ko is just the appetizer in the mouth of the DPP gluttons.

　

Only these two top politicians have "palm grease" problem ? 

Certainly not !


Taiwan is a corrupt country.   

　

★  1.  Ruling party   
♦ Washington Post (2024-5-20):  The ruling party (DPP)  has faced corruption scandals.  
♦ Washington Post (2023-11-24):  Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai's presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals...   
♦ New York Times (2024-1-10): the frustration voters feel about out-of-control Taiwan ... government corruption. 
♦ According to Transparency International, Germany - Global Corruption Barometer, released in 2022, 90% Taiwanese think government  corruption  is a big problem, this percentage is higher than that in Japan, S. Korea, China and Malaysia.
♦ Financial Times (UK, 2024-9-6): Taiwan slid last year in Transparency International's global corruption perceptions index, and its score dropped slightly for the first time since Lai's DPP predecessor Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016.  Opposition accusations of DPP officials abusing their positions and engaging in corruption contributed to Lai receiving the lowest winning vote share in 24 years in a three-way presidential race.
♦ The China Times (Taiwan, 2023-6-26): The ruling party, DPP's corruption was structural, collective and overall (結構性、集體性、全面性貪腐) ;  a bunch of vote-brokers, officials, law makers get involved; DPP's corruption has already crossed the bottom line, and is out of control.

♦ United Daily (Taiwan, 2023-6-26): DPP got involved in many cases such as 光電案、超思進口雞蛋案、小吃店採購快篩案、疫苗案、口罩案...  but the prosecutors has not done anything to them.  Selective handling of cases by double standards, is nothing but political persecution (政治追殺)。

　

★  2.  Local politicians and high-level politicians 

♦ Diplomat  (2024-9-11): The allegations against the former presidential candidate raise questions about pervasive corruption at all levels of government.  Corruption and patronage, are “in the DNA” of local politics.  “All the money laundering and things like that can be done by these local officials for their big brothers (legislators) in the legislature” , “Because the local politicians don’t need to make their wealth public.”  “Almost all  [high-level] politicians come from local politics, ”A bottom-up spoils system is thus cultivated"...
♦ After Cheng Wen-tsan (Bloomberg, 2024-7-12: the highest-profile graft probe in the democratically run archipelago since President Chen Shui-bian in 2008. ) was detained,  DPP's factions except Lai's faction  and KMT, TPP should be scary,  according to United Daily (Taiwan, 2024-7-10).

　

★  3.  Taiwan military

♦ Economist (UK, 2022-8-2): Taiwan needs to do more to combat corruption and waste in its armed forces)。 
♦ Axios (2022-6-28):  Scandals and corruption have plagued the Taiwanese armed forces  axios.com/2022/06/28/taiwan-military-defense-weapons-china-invasion-threat

　

★  4.  Taiwan judiciary

♦ TaiwanPlus (2023-3-6): a majority said they believed prosecutors engage in corruption behaviour when handling cases.   msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/taiwan-poll-finds-widespread-public-mistrust-of-prosecutors-taiwanplus-news/vi-AA18glWE    
 ♦ Transparency International (Germany) - Global Corruption Barometer released in 2022: The percentage of judges, magis-trates corruption is higher than that in China and Japan.

◆

★  5.  Taiwan police

 According to Transparency International, Germany - Global Corruption Barometer, released in 2022, the percentage of Taiwanese paying a bribe to police, 67%, is far higher than  China (18%)、Japan (10%) 、S. korea (8%).

　

Why does the prosecution select Ko Wen-je ?? 

　

Asia Times  (2024-8-23) article "Taiwan's Lai Ching-te consolidating power " already concluded that Cheng's arrest is reflective of an intense intra-DPP political struggle between a pair of long-time rivals.  A tense personal history has pushed Lai Ching-te to “punish” Cheng Wen-tsan after gaining power.  asiatimes.com/2024/08/taiwans-lai-consolidating-power-before-turning-to-china/   Besides, Cheng is widely believed guilty.
But Ko is different (till present 2024-9-18).   Who will have advantage or benefit if Ko goes to jail?

　

★  1.  Presidential election rival

　

Council on Foreign relations (2024-9-5): Although Ko lost the 2024 presidential election, he was widely seen as having outperformed expectations and as someone who would again run for president.  Al Jazeera  (2024-9-2):   Ko is widely seen as a contender for the next election in 2028.    SCMP (2024-9-7): “If Ko is found guilty of corruption, it is foreseeable that Ko will have little chance of making a political comeback.”.

　

★  2.  Power balance

　

US News & World Report  (2024-9-1), Reuters (2024-9-2): The TPP has only eight lawmakers in Taiwan's 113-seat parliament but has an outsized role as neither the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), has a majority.  Council on Foreign relations (2024-9-5): TPP controls the balance of power. As scrutiny of Ko and the TPP intensify, dynamics in the legislature could shift, with implications for President Lai Ching-te's agenda.   TPP has aligned with the KMT, pushing through a controversial plan to expand the legislature's powers and questioning Lai's proposed policies, including his plan to build additional submarines.  
Asia Nikkei (Japan, 2024-9-5): The TPP's woes come as its coalition with the KMT is locked in a showdown with the DPP.  The opposition has sought to clip the wings of Lai's government, threatening to vote down budgets and public appointments  Asia Nikkei (Japan, 2024-9-11): The TPP and its larger opposition partner, KMT, have been a thorn in the side of the pro-sovereignty Lai's fledgling administration.

Expert says the TPP is essentially a "one-man party" built on Ko's charisma.  This might be a reason the prosecution selects Ko.

　

★  3.  Law-makers
Council on Foreign relations (2024-9-5):  if these TPP legislators conclude that the TPP's days are numbered, they may become free agents open to working with the DPP.

SCMP (2024-9-7): "If Ko does fall from grace and his party loses support, it could struggle to retain its 5 per cent of the vote for seats in Taiwan's legislature in the 2028 elections", “If it fails to cross the 3 per cent threshold, the TPP could fizzle out like the New Power Party”.

　

★  4.  Young Taiwanese

Council on Foreign relations (2024-9-5): As a presidential candidate, Ko built a base among energized young Taiwanese, receiving 3.69 million votes (26.5 percent ).  In previous two presidential elections, young Taiwanese were DPP's base.

　

★  5.  China factor

Nikkei Asian Review (Japan, 2024-9-11): Beijing wades into Taipei drama over corruption probe against TPP leader and has accused Taiwan's president of persecuting Beijing-leaning revals...  'Since Lai Ching-te admin came to power, it has repeatedly manipulated judicial and administrative means, used public weapons for private purposes, opposed party members and dissenters, and created "green terror" on the island', Chinese gov. said.

　

Political persecution ? 

　

At 2024-9-2 , Ko Wen-je told Taiwan's media that he experienced "extreme oppression, mistreatment & abuses" (「極盡壓迫跟凌虐」) by prosecutors during two days' detention...   udn.com/news/story/124199/8200282?from=udn_ch2cate6638sub124199_pulldownmenu_v2.  The Diplomat, 2024-9-3: The TPP increasingly began leaning into the narrative that Ko's arrest was a form of political persecution...

　

★  1.  Scary political struggle

Dr. Shelley Rigger, scholar of Davidson College said: "(political struggles in Taiwan is) frightening to me".   chinatimes.com/opinion/20240913004217-262101?chdtv

The China Times (2024-9-13) comments that the prosecution detained the chair of the 2nd largest opposition party without any solid evidence, obviously...   The China Times (2024-9-14): Despite of no evidence, the prosecutors wrote detention document ─ Ko Wen-je violated Anti-Corruption Act - Article 4 (Demanding, taking or promising to take bribes or other unlawful profits by the acts that violate the official duties...... "第4條「違背職務受賄」" )  chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20240914

　

★  2.  Shame parade thru. streets

United Daily (Taiwan, 2024-9-13): Taiwan's top professor says that the way media report Ko is like  "Shame parades through the streets",  dusty old political theatrics that communist Chinese Red Guards used during the Cultural Revolution, 1966 ~  (變成對待政敵的紅衛兵式的鬥爭，如同遊街公審).

★  3.  To obtain confession by detention

United Daily (2024-9-13): While supporting former president Chen Shui-bian a few years ago, Lai Ching-te said that obtaining confessions by detention is human rights abuses and violating "procedural justice"; but now different standard is applied for Ko Wen-je?

udn.com/news/story/124199/8225042?from=udn_ch2cate6638sub124199_pulldownmenu_v2
(賴清德總統以前聲援前總統陳水扁時曾說押人取供違反程序正義、踐踏人權，如今同一套標準，怎對柯文哲不一樣？)
The purpose of detention is to preserve evidence, not to detain people to obtain confessions.

　

★  4.  Human rights issue
Asia Nikkei (Japan, 2024-9-5): Ko said his meals consisted of two pieces of bread and a drink. "For three days, I had to sleep on the floor, and there was no shower or bed available. The lights were never turned off so the detainee will quickly lose the sense of time," he said. "Those who haven't been convicted, and are merely in remand, should not be treated in such a manner. This is inconsistent with human rights."

　

　


　

　

Persecutions or human rights abuse is worse than bribery.  President Lai Ching-te said he is against political persecution before taking the power earlier this year, but now, are those persecution archives in recent 30-40 years declassified ?

2024-9-18

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Taiwan's president shoots in his foot ?! ♣ 

♣   

 Lai Ching-te repeatedly boasted that Taiwan has power/strength to confront China;  Taiwan at least twice boasted it will shoot Chinese PLA if entering our territory water or air ...

　


Taiwan's TV 關鍵時刻 (Jun. 2024) : Biden greenlights sending troops, emboldening Taiwan would shoot China's PLA within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan's territory
TV host and commentator Liu Pao-chieh was just be imposed sanctions by China in May

　

Taipei Times (2023-3-7) : Minister of National Defense said "We would be forced to respond should Chinese military vessels and aircraft come near or enter the nation's airspace and territorial waters...

One year later, China did enter 12 nautical miles of Taiwan territory, according to CNBC (2024-5-24), China Times (2024-5-24), and Global Times (2024-5-23).  Taiwan's military shot nothing.
　

　
(Taipei Times, 2024-6-7, taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/07/2003818990  ;  美洲台灣日報(2024-6-7)、 香港明報、  HK01(2024-6-6), 自由時報(2024-6-12), etc ).

　

About two weeks later, Chinese came as close as 5 nautical miles, which was the closest approach in history (China's Global Times , 2024-6-26).   Institute for the study of War  (the US, 2024-6-27) reported similar thing.    Again, Taiwan's military shot nothing, and turned around in response to China's warnings.

　

Tough stance is usually used for deterrence.   New Yorker  (2024-6-24 ~ 7-1) : “But what if deterrence failed?” 
Taiwan exchanged its toughness for China's greater toughness.

　

 Too many fake news or misleading news in Taiwan's media is another issue.  Taiwanese commentators (on TV "Taiwan Critical Time" youtube.com/live/ecNxnat8s-Q?app=desktop youtube.com/watch?v=JPH-L5-HPY4) said that Biden greenlights sending troops, therefore Taiwan's "first strike" rule changes - Taiwan would shoot them if Chinese are within 12 nautical miles....

　

However, Washington Examiner (2024-3-22):  China is preparing for invasion ... and President  Joe Biden  is not prepared.   The Hill (2024-6-4):  President Biden, still  fearful of escalation  to "World War III".    Fox News (2024-5-31):  criticism targets Biden for his lack of  'moral clarity' on Taiwan.     The Australian (2024-6-4): 'It depends'  -  Biden wavers on Taiwan defence.    Foreign Affairs (2024-7-2) wrote Taiwan wants the United States to step up its efforts to counter Chinese aggression and coercion,  but the Biden administration has not done so ... partly because the United States cannot take responsibility for dealing with the daily provocations that any U.S. ally or partner faces from China.

　

In other words, Taiwan's leaders lack of good analysis the situation or lack of good communication with the US.

　

According to National Interest (2024-7-13), Taiwan needed to find a steady path, avoiding both complacency and hysteria.” That complacency results from the widely-held  belief  that the US would come to their rescue;  That hysteria results, certainly,  from the US did not come to rescue.

　

The Atlantic Council (2024-6-27): Ukraine...can resist forced annexation with sufficient bravery, preparation, and will.  The Taiwanese ask themselves, “Are we made of the same stuff ? ”

　

NPR (2024-7-2) : in apparent retaliation, China's Coast Guard has been patrolling within the restricted waters...  has not happened in the last 30 years.

　

Are there more retaliations ahead ?

　

China's Global Times (2024-7-4):  if Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities continue to seek "Taiwan independence," the scope of embodied jurisdiction will only be closer to the island of Taiwan, and this trend is fully visible.   GT (2024-5-13): patrol model can be applied to entire Taiwan Straits.
2024-7-4, updated 7-15

　

　

Defense One (2024-6-28): War with China not inevitable, Taiwan government officials say

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣Hong Kong (China) VS. Taiwan    in    Political cartoons  ♣ 

♣   

     

　

　

Zola Zu's article about freedom in Taiwan and HK was printed in FECO NEWS (Europe, April 2024) distributed to 40+ countries
brief version as below

　
Taiwan needs to declassify all political archives, particularly persecution records in recent 40 years.
Some top politicians continue to ignore this issue, some top politicians prefer to declassify old political archives about 70 years ago -  it means much less because the prime suspects in White Terror era were dead already. 
Some top officials may be suspected to harbor criminals or even flee from justice. 

　

A picture says more and louder than thousand words

　

According to <Asian Political Cartoons> book (by Dr. John Lent, University press of Mississippi, 2023),  "if you offend any one of them (Taiwan's politicians), you are sent to court.  Artists only know art, and to be sent to court is unfathomable and a headache for them".  

Taiwan needs to declassify all political archives to find out if the consequence of offending politicians is only a "headache". ps1

Compare Taiwan with Hong Kong.

In protests from 2003 to 2020 ps2, Hong Kongers have created tens of thousands of political cartoons/design works ps3  for propaganda, communication, mobilization, and drawing international attentions.   Parts of Hong Kong including bus stations became a gallery.   Fortunately, there's no any editorial cartoonists being sued or imprisoned. 

At that time the HK gov. learned they need to “fill loopholes” in their laws to root out "seeds of unrest" and  "hostile forces lurking in society”.  New York Times and CNN (2024-1-30) reported that HK officials claimed “ the CIA and British intel. have publicly stated that they'll do a lot of work to target China and HK”.

After protests, some cartoon columns ended.  Cartoonist Justin Wong, a scholar at HK Baptist Univ., chose to leave HK after hearing that the school allegedly contacted the police for his works about the protests.  Radio Free Asia (2023-5-11) quoted some comments saying that the public opinion environment in HK is worse than that in mainland China.

In 2023, top cartoonist Zunzi's column in Ming Pao news, which accompanied Hong Kongers for 40 years, was suddenly discontinued.  Zunzi told AFP that it's due to "political pressure" triggered by his latest cartoon. Zunzi's cartoons have already caused controversies over the years (even banned by Singapore in 1998).    RFA believes that the cartoon criticizing the district-council reform was the straw that broke the camel's back. ps4

That cartoon was :  Anyone no matter how low his grades in Math, English, Chinese examinations are, and no matter if he is obese or skinny, or with color blindness,  high myopia, high cholesterol or heart disease,  still can be a member of  Fight-Crime Committee ..., as long as the high-ranking official thinks he is the right one.
　
Hong Kong gov. said this cartoon ignores the fact,  and contains insult & discrimination meanings.  Takungpao News: defamation "is considered a criminal offence",  they also criticized Zunzi can not create gag cartoons, his works need words to convey messages,  therefore difficult to agree his artistic value.

Professor John Lent hopes Zunzi can get a reprieve.  Thankfully, Zunzi has not been prosecuted several months after that event.   However, all of his cartoons were moved out of public libraries    ──     Hitler's autobiography < Mein Kampf>  is still on the book-shelf.   
　

N.Y. Times (2021-7-23): "Even with the security law in place, political cartoons and protest artwork have continued to thrive on the margins in Hong Kong, but that could soon change".   <Asian Political Cartoons> (2023): "Not many Taiwanese young people draw political cartoons, because now there's a plethora of political parties... ".

An art article in the New York Times (2023-10-11) says this might be the least culturally innovative century in the past 500 years.   In Hong Kong and Taiwan, innovation and ambition could be even less, for more reasons.

　

　

PS1:  Taiwanese people suffered electromagnetic wave attacks and mentally controls. 
e.g., NEWS Australia, Dec. 2,2011,  French AFP , Dec. 1, 2011 , Thailand's Bangkok Post,  Dec. 3, 2011, Yahoo UK & Ireland, etc reported that NTU professor Lin Ruey-Shiung, was subject to electromagnetic wave attacks (supposed by Taiwan Intel.).  Global Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan are mentally controlling Taiwan people.

　
　

PS2:  From Hong Kong's 1-July-protests in 2003 (Hong Kong 1 July marches - Wikipedia), the Umbrella Movement in 2014 (2014 Hong Kong protests - Wikipedia),  then to the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill (movement against the extradition bill amendment bill  2019–2020 Hong Kong protests - Wikipedia) .

PS3:  https://creative-comic.tw/zh/special_topics/19    2020-8-20 

PS4:  BBC (2023-7-10) reported that Zunzi's cartoons have already caused controversies over the years.  RFI (2023-5-11) reported: In the past six months, many departments of the Hong Kong government, including Hong Kong Police Force、Labour and Welfare Bureau、Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau、 Security Bureau and No.2 powerful person, the Chief Secretary for Administration, have criticized Zunzi.

PS5:  

CNN  edition.cnn.com/2024/01/30/asia/hong-kong-security-law-article-23-consultation-intl-hnk/index.html

New York Times   2024-1-30  nytimes.com/2024/01/30/world/asia/hong-kong-security-law-unrest.html

BBC   bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-65554858

BBC   bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-65559578

tkww.hk/a/202305/11/AP645c905ee4b0c614abacce82.html

rfa.org/cantonese/news/htm/hk-comic-05192023061105.html

epochtimes.com/gb/23/6/5/n14010220.htm

.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20230511-港官批評後-著名政治漫畫家尊子遭-明報-停掉專欄-評論指港府胸襟不符國際都會要求

DW  2023-5-14  .dw.com/zh/告別明報40年政治漫畫-尊子希望就在轉角位/a-65613713

　

　
 
PS 6 :  Unlike political or editorial cartoons, pictures on children's book got some trouble.  Ref to Washington Post, 2022-9-7, New York Times 2021-7-23, New York Times 2020-12-30,  Hong Kong Free Press 2021-07-22,  Hong Kong Police arrested group-leaders behind a children's picture book which featured 12 sheeps captured were sent to wolves village for eating (「送去狼村落度畀狼開餐啊！」) , another sheep called them "12 brave warriors" , in apparent reference to the 12 Hong Kong activists arrested by Chinese authorities as they tried to flee to Taiwan.   The HK police accused that children book publishers of instilling impressionable children with anti-government hatred and incite violent and criminal behavior. 
　

　

 Taiwan, a country of freedom of expression ?

★  China Times (中國時報) , 2024-4-7: William Lai (Lai Ching-te, Taiwan president from May 2024) intimidates Taiwanese people into restricting freedom of speech, and shapes those speech criticizing the government into engaging in cognitive warfare...  Any message or speech that is unfavorable to the government, advantageous for the hostile will be regarded as  "collaborator"  engaging in the cognitive warfare and will be smeared and discredited (任何訊息、言論只要對政府不利，對敵對者有利，就會被視為是認知作戰的「在地協力者」，遭到抹紅、抹黑)。  chinatimes.com/opinion/20240407002778-262101?chdtv 

　

★ United Daily (聯合報) , 2024-3-17, China Times (中國時報) , 2024-3-12 :  The minister of National Defense defines "(China's) local cooperator" as whoever speaks to our disadvantage and in the opposite side's favor  (「任何訊息、言論對我不利，對對方有利，初步就認為是在地協力者」chinatimes.com/opinion/20240312004516-262101?chdtv), according to our initial judgment  ... the prosecution/police and investigation will eventually determine whether or not the suspect is a "local cooperator", which scares the public as long as the state apparatus getting involved and the selected citizens going through a long time legal process.  Only the good news rather than the bad is exactly what the ruler expect - a chilling effect.  (只要啟動檢調警國家機器，就足以收震懾威嚇之效；再經司法程序一路折騰，即使還其清白，也已被剥掉幾層皮。只准報喜不許唱憂，正是統治者要的寒蟬效應！) udn.com/news/story/7338/7836324?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2   


★  Taiwan's judicial reform fails.     ★ TIME, 2023-11-20:  the government's judicial reform website hasn't been updated since 2020. “Does that mean the government didn't do anything or just doesn't care about this topic?” ★  Taiwan Plus, 2023-3-6:  Taiwan Poll finds widespread public mistrust of prosecutors /  A poll has found that 85% of people in Taiwan think public prosecutors can be subject to political influence.  More than half responded they were unsatisfied with recent judicial reforms, and a majority said they believed prosecutors engage in corruption behaviour when handling cases.  msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/taiwan-poll-finds-widespread-public-mistrust-of-prosecutors-taiwanplus-news/vi-AA18glWE

　

   Taiwan, a country of democracy ?
 ★  Country Reports on Human Rights practices, 2024-4-22:  In the most recent presidential and legislative elections,  there were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties.   USA Country Reports on Human Rights practices,  2021-3-30:  There were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties (KMT and DPP) in  Presidential election in 2020. 

★   Heritage Foundation,  2024-4-15  :  none of presidential candidates dared expound on his own policy,  they purposely conceal their policies in favor of carefully stage-managed events and vague campaign slogans. Even televised debates...
★  Denmark's Democracy Perception Index 2021 ( DPI ) shows that democracy in Taiwan was threatened by US: 58%, China : 65%.
★  In key moments, Taiwan's KMT vice presidential candidate and former president urged by slip of tongues voters to support DPP's presidential candidate.    The Atlantic Council (2023-12-19): ... it may mean is that the DPP is prioritizing a safer ride to the presidency over retaining a legislative majority.   Eventually, DPP won presidency, KMT won a legislative majority, quite coincidently.

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣  mind control weaponry in Taiwan    ♣ ♣   

　

  (1) Is Taiwan government a prime criminal ?   they refuse to open classified documents concerning persecution after 1984.
　

Why do those political persecution cases never come to light ?

Star War

　

n EuroView.ecct  (2023-10-20):  Taiwan's cabinet is proposing amendments to the Political Archives Act and the Classified National Security Information Protection Act to allow political archives from Taiwan's authoritarian past to be made public ... half of political archives classified as permanently confidential under the current law could be declassified next year if the amendments pass.   

  half of political files (of the Martial Law era.) before 1984 may shed light on only some events
 (1)    The problem is those persecution cases after 1984 still will be buried.  Why don't they open all the files?   ──    Are those politicians trying to save their own skins ?  
(2)    Those prime suspects persecuting Taiwanese before 1984 are dead already,  most likely. 

　

　

Today's secret police are still doing bad things  ──  Taiwan's United Daily, editorial, 2023-12-13: The government trying to evade or refuse oversight or supervision by using the name "classified document" has already been a normal since long time ago ("政府利用「機密文件」規避監督，早已是常態" udn.com/news/story/7338/7636736?from=udn-catebreaknews_ch2 ).   Taiwan's United Daily, editorial, 2023-12-11 also reported that foreign diplomats from Japan, Canada, S. korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Denmark, etc and/or their offices in Taiwan were suspected to be bugged by the national security. (udn.com/news/story/7338/7631855?from=udn_ch2_menu_v2_main_cate)

　

　

Taiwan's "Black box"    ──   
Global Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan who are mentally controlling the Taiwan people.  

Taiwan has not rebutted its "sworm enemy's" allegation for one year till present, which is nothing other than giving a tacit consent to it.

　

　

★ surveillance in the U.S. and Europe

　

Freedom House (2019)  : At the very least, social media surveillance must come under greater oversight.  The use of such programs must be transparent... The survival of democracy requires vibrant public spaces, both offline and online, where individuals can... without fear of constant surveillance.

Washington DC based Epic.org: The unchecked expansion of surveillance systems is one of the greatest threats to privacy and civil liberties.  Abuses of surveillance technology are not only unjust, they're dangerous.

　

The concerns in the US or Europe are basically about people’s emails, online chats, internet browsing histories, and information about social media activity or  face analysis  in public spaces, etc

　

　

As for mind control, and electromagnetic attacks the civilians in Taiwan, those are not only violation of Privacy Act (Taiwan does not have a Privacy Act ), but also committing serious crimes.

　

★ Oversight in the U.S. and Europe

　

In the US, PRISM receives independent oversight from the federal Gov. executive, judicial and legislatives branches. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM)
In EU Member States, they increased the number of oversight bodies to monitor the work of intelligence services
　

　

Can Taiwan do as the US and Euro do ?


Each time Taiwan's Intel. or dark forces use any of high-tech. weapons (e.g., electromagnetic attacks, mind controlling, etc) to harm or repress or abuse some of Taiwanese people,  will they record their operation on files ?  Taiwan needs a mechanism for great oversight and legal actions in the future.

　

There's no reason the truth of those political cases can't be exposed.   ─    According to 《國家機密保護法》(National Secrets Protection Law), in no case shall information be classified in order to conceal violations of law or administrative error;  Taiwan's president or National Security Council etc who authorized the original classification are entitled to place order to declassify those secret files.  
Taiwan president(s) seem - refuse to bring to light  ─  or intend to cover up the ugly truth.

　

　

  (2) Is the U.S. an accomplice ? 

　

Mind-control issues coming to light ?

BBC, 2021-9-9: The brain is being seen as the 21st Century battle-scape.   Reports say from the 1990s, the US Air Force had a project codenamed "Hello" to see if microwaves could create disturbing sounds in people's heads, one called "Goodbye" to test their use for crowd control.

　

New York Times, 2018-9-1 (brief): To turn microwave radiation into covert weapons of mind control...   More recently, the American military itself sought to develop microwave arms that could invisibly beam painfully loud booms and even spoken words into people's heads...  microwaves can trick the brain into perceiving what seem to be ordinary sounds.  The dimensions of the human head, scientists say, make it a fairly good antenna for picking up microwave signals.  In Albuquerque, N.M., Air Force scientists sought to beam comprehensible speech into the heads of adversaries. Their novel approach won a patent in 2002.

　

New York Post, 2021-12-31: China is developing terrifying brain control weapons capable of ‘paralyzing enemies’, according to the Washington Times...   China is trying to obtain American technology to takeover key sectors including biotech.

　

Renmin University professor of international relations Jin Canrong (中國人民大學教授金燦榮) said,  per The Times   of London: those Indian soldiers occupying the hilltops all began to vomit, they couldn't stand up, so they fled. This was how we retook the ground.    Washington Examiner 2020-11-17: India rejects claim of Chinese microwave weapon attack.

　

From reports above, it's within reason to say that Taiwan's mental-control weapons were imported from the US.   However, it's unknown whether or not the US gave their official permission for Taiwan's secret police to use any of high-tech weapons from the US on Taiwanese people.  

　

CarnegieEndowment.org (2021-05-12) :  a growing number of voters support initiatives to restrict U.S. aid to Israel due to its human rights violations...   the administration should enforce existing laws that prohibit the use of U.S. security assistance for illegitimate purposes.   All countries receiving U.S. aid must meet human rights standards, and countries violating these standards are liable to be sanctioned and ineligible for U.S. funding.   The United States does have obligations under both federal and international law to ensure that it is not furthering human rights abuses.  

　

If not restricting and stopping Taiwan's human rights abuses by using American high-tech weapons, the US might be an accomplice in the case.

　

　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣  Women rights + human rights  <  LGBT rights ?

　

A lot of western media reported or complimented Taiwan on becoming the first place in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage.   But, is it within reason to be so passionate about LGBT rights, on the other hand, to give cold shoulder to Taiwanese women rights and human rights  ?

　

  ♣ 1. Women rights in Taiwan

　

n New York Times, 2023-6-25: A torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions about the state of women's rights on an island democracy

　

nSCMP, 2023-6-11:  NTU professor Tso Chen-dong says the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights.  DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights.
 nAFP, 2023-7-7:  the crescendoing wave of #MeToo cases shows gender inequality remains a deep-seated problem, rooted in a culture prone to victim-blaming.  "Sexual violence -- from domestic violence to sexual harassment -- is more common than people think.
 n L.A. Times, 2023-7-26:  as #MeToo spread to Japan, South Korea and even mainland China, it failed to take root in Taiwan.
 n Reuters, 2023-7-28: a problem long shrouded in shame and silence. 
n BBC, 2023-7-21: The government must extend the statute of limitations for prosecuting sexual harassment cases, which is currently six months.  
n United Daily (聯合報 社論) , 2023-6-4 : sexual harassment and bully become the ruling DPP's norm, high-ranking officials' burying the case becomes a tacit understanding inside the party

n United Daily (聯合報 社評)  , 2023-6-1 : Holding high the banner of Modern women, DPPs actually are outdated Chauvinisme, and are accomplices of patriarchy. 
n NDTV (India), 2023-11-16:  Statistics reveal that a case of abuse occurs, on average, every five minutes in Taiwan, with 322 cases reported per day. The multitude of crimes against women and children in Taiwan highlight its problems with misogyny... 
n The Conversation (Australia, 2024-2-26): no presidential candidate in the recent election offered concrete plans for how to achieve gender equality in society ... candidates who chose women as their vice-presidential running mates appeared to do so as a political gesture aimed at attracting support from women, rather than displaying any real intent to advance gender equality in Taiwan.  Women issues were largely ignored.

　

  ♣ 2.  Human rights in Taiwan

　

Human rights is a long run issue in Taiwan, it became from bad to worse in recent years.
　

nSCMP, 2023-6-30:  Taiwan's #MeToo scandals are the tip of an iceberg of human rights problems


n The China Times (中國時報 2007-10-18): Taiwan becomes a "police state", no matter the opposition or the ruling party's lawmakers said they have experience of being monitored... the government owned the state apparatus。
nApple Daily (蘋果日報 2014-8-18) pointed out "the big brother is watching you"!  Privacy is basal of freedom, democracy and human rights, the news urged to be alert that the government was deprived of Taiwanese human rights.
nUnited Daily (聯合報 , 2024-2-24): Taiwan police repeatedly treated Taiwanese people by violence or brutality (by stun gun, etc) just like taking Taiwan back to  the medieval century (執法手段宛如回到中古世紀)brief

nGlobal Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan who are mentally controlling the Taiwan people.


Taiwanese government always refuse to open classified documents concerning persecution in recent 30 or 40 years, therefore, they are suspected to cover up the evil officials.

　

***   ***   ***   ***   ***

　

Why did Taiwan government support same-sex marriage ?    Taiwan, unlike some Western countries, seemed have some other motives to do that.

　

 ♣ 1.    Decoupling from Chinese tradition  /   Cambridge University Press  (1 December 2018) wrote that in earlier days,“homosexuals” were no more than a perverted minority who only wanted sexual gratification.  At that time, same-sex intimacy was seen as pathological, deviant, and  an outrageous violation of the officially sanctioned Chinese tradition.  The eruption of the Sunflower Movement in 2014, and the electoral victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in 2016, stimulated Taiwan's LGBT mobilization.  Abandoning the claim of representing orthodox Chinese culture is consistent with Tsai Ing-wen's political path.  The Guardian (UK): Taiwan's example breaks a long-held belief that LGBT rights are a western concept.  It's been said for a long time that the reason we can't have same-sex marriage is because of traditional Chinese culture.

 ♣ 2.   To contrast China  /   The Guardian (2019-7-5): The legalisation of same-sex marriage just 100 miles from the mainland has heightened the contrast between China and Taiwan.

 ♣ 3.   For int'l propaganda  /  Some years ago, an academic book published in UK about communication said Taiwan likes to propaganda its image by promoting LGBT rights.

 ♣ 4.   Personal factor ? /  Yahoo (2016-11-17)  :  KMT's top ranking official (國民黨政策會執行長) and former lawmaker said " Tsai Ing-wen is a homo/gay - 99%" (「蔡英文有接近99％的機率是同性戀」) 。

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣US Human Rights Report on Taiwan ♣ 

♣   

Corruption

　

On April 22, 2024, the United States Department of State published the 2023 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, which was criticized by People's Daily online (2024-6-3, China) that saying nothing about the US itself, just another case of double standard.

　

From a Taiwanese's perspective,  US report writes not much about Taiwan's corruption -  Taiwan's corruption has been a serious issue for years.
 

 ♣ Voice of America News, 2023-11-24: interviewee said ... the issue of corruption that has long plagued Taiwan's politics.

 ♣ According to the Guardian (UK), 2024-1-7: In Taiwan's presidential election, corruption...trumped concerns about a belliger neighbour (China).   Political corruption is often the “most stressed issue in Taiwanese elections and has been the most influential issue in a number of local and national elections”. 

 ♣ VOA News, 2024-1-3: Beijing has noticed that Taiwan's 2024 presidential election campaign has focused on corruption scandals rather than cross-strait relations. 

 ♣ Independent (UK), 2024-7-12:  When Lai Ching-te became DPP leader in 2023 and won the presidency in 2024 election, the ruling party pledged to combat corruption.   United Daily (2024-7-10): The ruling party's factions except President Lai Ching-te's  (信賴聯盟) and the opposition parties should get very jumpy or anxiety about something that is going to happen.

 ♣ Bloomberg, 2024-7-12 : A court ordered former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan detained while he is investigated for corruption, the latest development in the highest-profile graft probe in the democratically run archipelago since President Chen Shui-bian in 2008.

　

How far the 'crackdown' can go is still far from certain, because Taiwan's judiciary has been a major problem.   TaiwanPlus, 2023-3-6:   msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/taiwan-poll-finds-widespread-public-mistrust-of-prosecutors-taiwanplus-news/vi-AA18glWE  An article in United Daily (聯合報) criticized some presidents for this.

　

Monitoring the people

　

Human rights is another major issue.

　

In April 2024 , Taiwan's government issued a formal statement :  welcomes the United States' again recognizing Taiwan's democratic and human rights accomplishments in this annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. 

　

But, monitoring has been another serious human rights issue in Taiwan.

　

 ♣ The China Times (2024-6-6): Big Brother's shadow shrouding Taiwan. 
 ♣ The China Times (2024-5-31):  Big Brother is monitoring us.  Lock onto the government and investigate the cases to the very end, even if the country's foundation is shaken.

 ♣ United Daily (聯合報), 2024-5-31: Chair of Taiwan People's Party, Ko W. J. (柯文哲), said : Restoration of Secret Police (「警總復辟」).

 ♣ United Daily (聯合報), 2024-5-30: The Congress (Legislative Yuan) should make some achievement in stopping state machine abuses of power and monitoring the people (國會應在阻止國家機器濫權和政黨監控人民上搶出一點成績)

 ♣ Global Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan are mentally controlling Taiwan people.   A number of Taiwanese people suffered electromagnetic wave attacks and mentally controls, according to NEWS Australia, Dec. 2,2011,  French AFP , Dec. 1, 2011 , Thailand's Bangkok Post,  Dec. 3, 2011, Yahoo UK & Ireland, etc. 

　

The US Country Reports on Human Rights Practices writes nothing about it.

2024-7-15

　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣  US skepticism from Taiwan


PBS.org, Associated Press, VOA News, abc News (US, 2024-1-27): China targeted Taiwan island with a stream of disinformation ahead of its election - some narratives targeted U.S. support for Taiwan, arguing that America was an untrustworthy partner only interested in Taiwan's semiconductor exports that wouldn't support the island if it came to war with China.

　

But New York Times (2024-1-20): Polls show growing distrust of the United States in Taiwan...   only 34 percent of respondents saw the United States as a trustworthy country, down from 45 percent in 2021.

　

What's on Taiwanese mind?

　

n1.   History - main reason

♣ According to New York Times (2024-1-20), the disastrous American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021; Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Washington's decision not to send troops; the 2022 visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, which led to a strong Chinese military response (moving military ships closer to Taiwan in ways that increase the risk of conflict) -  but the US had no response to China's largest ever drills - blockade of Taiwan island.   Jasmine Lee, the editor of US-Taiwan Watch, a think tank that recently contributed to a report on doubts about the United States. “It’s reasonable because we’ve been abandoned before.”.
a Taiwanese professor at SHU said those Taiwanese people, especially those who did not experience the US cutting ties with Taiwan to recognise China in 1979, still believe that America would support Taiwan, no matter who was in office. 

♣ The Hill  (2021-6-4): Over the past dozen years, the West has repeatedly acquiesced to attempted changes in the world's map by unlawful military means, issuing largely empty statements or inadequate sanctions that signaled a tacit acceptance of such tactics...As he considers the likelihood of American intervention in a potential Taiwan conflict, Mr. Xi has ample evidence arguing against a forceful Western response. 

♣ National Interest  (2024-1-24): Taiwan's unfortunate fate is that it will always be vulnerable to a sellout by the United States. This danger may be increasing.
 ♣ Tufts Daily (2021-3-10): Tragically, history indicates that if faced with an ultimatum, the United States may cede control of Taiwan to China if it deems doing so politically necessary (an immense improvement in Chinese-U.S. relations)...realists find little reason to expect the Biden administration to prioritize foreign human rights issues over domestic economic recovery.

　

n2.  Donald Trump

♣  Washington Post (2022-3-9), Politico (2021-3-15): Trump told a senator that, "If they invade, there isn’t a f---ing thing we can do about it."。

♣  Washington Examiner (2023-9-6): Trump implies he would not intervene against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan。

♣  Newsweek (2024-1-22) : Donald Trump's comments ( for an interview on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures With Maria Bartiromo ) suggested the United States should not help Taiwan in the event of an invasion from China.   Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program for the German Marshall Fund of the U.S says: "Taipei beware".

♣  Economist (UK, 2024-1-4): Donald Trump, who talks tough on China but has no great love for Taiwan.
 ♣  National Interest (2024-1-24): Donald Trump could betray Taiwan.
 ♣  New York Times (2024-1-27):  One step that might make Chinese aggression more likely to succeed — and thus a greater possibility — is a Trump victory in November. Trump has expressed uncertainty about helping Taiwan, and it’s difficult to imagine him coordinating allies to press China to back off.

♣  Sydney Morning Herald (Australia, 2024-1-22):   By 2018, Trump's tone had changed. “What do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?”, Trump asked aides, according to Bob Woodward's book Fear: Trump in the White House

　

n3.  J. Biden

♣ National Review (2023-7-15): the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen:  If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.  

♣ Economist (UK, 2024-1-4):  Biden could yield to Chinese pressure on Taiwan...

♣ New York Times (2024-1-27): Biden let himself be intimidated by Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling.  (certainly, he will be intimidated by China’s nuclear weapons too)

♣  New York Post (2023-8-10):   "I believe that China has paid him a fortune”, former President Donald Trump said in a Wednesday interview with Newsmax. “I've never seen anybody so weak on China.”;  Trump derided his successor as a “Manchurian candidate”.“This is a president who is fully compromised,” he added. “He is so afraid of China and the reason he is afraid is because I believe they paid him a tremendous amount of money and he doesn't want people to find out about it.

　

n4.  American public

♣  NY Times (2024-1-20):  polls since 2021 have shown that a plurality of Americans oppose committing troops to Taiwan's defense. In one recent poll, 53 percent of Republicans said the United States should stay out of global affairs.

♣  Asia Times (2024-1-8):  The latest of surveys by the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs  tells us: “As in past surveys, a majority of Americans (56%) oppose sending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese government …

　

n5.  US Military Capacity

♣ The Economist today (A Sunday edition, 2024-1-21):  Biden's foreign-policy headaches, alongside Russia's war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza — the overspill from which, as we report today, is raising the risk of direct conflict with Iran。

♣ NYT (2024-1-22):  a few are raising the possibility that the country (North Korea) could be planning an assault on the South.
 ♣ Economist (2023-11-13): the Pentagon long ago abandoned the requirement that its armed forces be able to fight two major regional wars simultaneously...  As China’s forces grow stronger and America’s investments in new military equipment don’t fully bear fruit until the 2030s.

　

n6.  House

♣ Fortune (2023-12-15):  In a sign of splintering U.S. attention, the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying request for spending for all three allies - Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan.

♣ Economist (2023-11-13): ... departure from Afghanistan in 2021 signalled weakness to America’s foes. Similarly, others contend that cutting aid to Ukraine would grant a victory not just to Russia but to China, too

　

n7.  Taiwan as a tool/pawn

 Many media already made comment that the US intends to use Taiwan for a proxy war to weaken China.   NY Times (2024-1-27): Beijing must also have been unnerved when Ely Ratner, a senior Pentagon official, described Taiwan as a strategic asset for the United States. The implication was that America may try to use Taiwan as a military bulwark against China.

　

n8.  Taiwan's capacity

♣ Oriana Skylar Mastro ( a fellow in international studies at Stanford University and the American Enterprise Institute ) : It's really important that they believe the United States is coming to intervene on their behalf because there are a lot of studies showing that can influence how well they hold out”. “And we'd need them to hold on long enough for us to get there.”

♣ RAND, Jun. 2023 (rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1658-1.html)  : Can Taiwan Resist a Large-Scale Military Attack by China?
      ...Taiwan's capacity to resist an attack by China for 90 days — the amount of time plausibly required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out an intervention in East Asia.

♣ Bloomberg  (2023-12-20): Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at MIT's Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues, said that he “wouldn't be shocked if Taiwan threw up its hands in the first days of a conflict”;  The assessment of the US government, she said, “is that they cannot hold out long.”  for a blockade.

♣  Many Taiwanese people, including former president Ma Ying-jeou, said Taiwan can not hold on too long.  The American Reservative (2024-1-12): Ma Ying-jeou said that Taiwan would quickly fall to China. “No matter how you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland. You can never win”  , “They’re too large, much stronger than us.” Ma allegedly believes that if China moved on Taiwan, the island wouldn’t be able to fend the Chinese off long enough for potential U.S. forces to assist.

♣ Business Insider  (2024-1-29): A CSIS survey of 52 experts found that 90% of the US experts indicated Taiwan could hold China off "2 weeks to 1 month" or longer, without the US military.

　

***   ***   ***

　

It's within reason to guess the US may intervene (by some way) Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but probably not direct intervention such as sending troops...

2024-1-28, 29

　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣  liars make Taiwan Strait tenser

Newsweek 2023-11-21: Seven in 10 people in Taiwan don't trust America - Poll.

　

However, a lot more people in Taiwan don't trust their political leaders.

　

2008

According to a poll conducted by World Economic Forum, 80% of the people in Taiwan believe that political leaders are dishonest. The proportion is significantly higher than the global average, ranking second from the bottom in Asia and the Pacific.  Only 6% Taiwanese trust their political leader. (epochtimes.com/gb/8/1/18/n1981373.htm   2008-1-18)


2016
Oxford Academic (Mar. 2016),  the 2024 THE Best World University's press (OUP) academic research platform, compares political trust in democratic Taiwan and autocratic China. When political trust is defined as confidence in the key political institutions, national identity, trusting political leaders, and trusting the political system, Chinese respondents consistently expressed more trust than Taiwanese respondents in all of the four dimensions.


2022-2024   
Till recently, Taiwan's political leaders still are dishonest.

★ New York Times (2024-2-26): Taipei's approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent, ... a lack of transparency also prevents the government from communicating the true situation to Taiwan's people.

★ Financial times (2023-12-27): ...Taiwanese politicians’ reluctance to openly discuss the danger of Chinese military aggression out of fear of losing public support.

★ In Dec., 2022, Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen extended mandatory military service to one year,  eventually    ──   she denied the decision was made under US pressure.  But Financial Times (2022-12-27):  The conscription reform follows years of increasing US pressure on Taiwan to strengthen its defences.

★ New Yorker (2022-11-21): When the Chinese test-fired the ballistic missiles, Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen didn't tell the public that they flew over the island; that became known only after it was announced by Japanese leaders.

　

Chinese nationals died after a fatal chase at Feb. 14, 2024 by Taiwan's Coast Guard vessel

★  CNN video, 2024-2-22   edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/02/22/exp-marc-stewart-china-coast-guard-live-022204aseg1-cnni-world.cnn

Now we are hearing the account from Taiwan... from Taiwan coast Guard they says fishermen vessel from China took a sharp turn and that caused a capsize...    one of the Chinese fishermen survived in the incident was speaking to Chinese TV and said that their boat, the Chinese boat was hit , was rammed by a Taiwanese vessel, and they overturned and capsized...

　

★ The Diplomat, 2024-3-2: What proved controversial in Taiwan was that the coast guard did not immediately publicize that the two Chinese men died because of a collision with one of its vessels.。 The pan-Blue camp (opposition) ... attacks on the Tsai administration focusing on the perceived lack of transparency. 

　

★ Radio Free Asia, 2024-3-27: Many (Kinmen's  Taiwanese fishermen) blame Taiwanese politicians for politicizing the deaths of the two Chinese citizens by making them about cross-Straits tensions, rather than just a private tragedy.  They also point to what they call dubious claims by the Taiwanese Coast Guard that it has no video footage about the incident.

 　

★ The Guardian, 2024-3-19: The fury grew when it became clear the two boats had collided – a fact Taiwan’s authorities had initially omitted.

　

★ United Daily (Taiwan, 2024-2-22): Taiwan Coast Guard kept hiding the truth, lying Chinese fishermen speeded up their boat and took a sharp turn which causing a capsize ... (海巡部門多日來未說實話，一再隱瞞真相，謊稱大陸漁船是在加速逃逸蛇行過程翻覆。導致事態擴大日漸棘手) (udn.com/news/story/7338/7784042?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2)。

★ China Times (中時, 2024-3-4): Taiwan government renames the report to the Legislative from 「fatal boats collision (金門撞船案)」to 「outlaw illegal fishing boat (取締事故)」,  on the other hand the gov. told the aborigines/indigenous lawmaker in charge of this case that they will promote native Taiwanese working in the Coast Guard (「海巡有很多原住民同仁，我特別要求注意在升遷上的拔擢」); obviously, as long as the case can be positioned as political event, the truth does not matter。 brief chinatimes.com/opinion/20240304003981-262101?chdtv

★ The New York Times, 2024-3-24: Two Chinese survivors said that the Taiwanese vessel collided with them, while the Taiwanese Coast Guard said the two boats “made contact” at times during the chase.

　

★  China's Global Times (2024-2-26): Taiwan used the phrase "rescue explanation of the overturned mainland speedboat" at a press conference, making the accident sound like the mainland fishing boat had accidentally capsized and Taiwan's vessel was there to rescue, blatantly spreading false information... exposed the true nature of the Taiwan authorities.  If the Taiwan authorities continue to disregard the mainland's sincerity, viewing it as a sign of weakness to be taken advantage of, then they will bear the consequences and pay the cost. Calling off the "off-limit" or "restricted" waters in the Xiamen-Kinmen zones, realizing regular law enforcement patrols in the entire Xiamen-Kinmen waters, including boarding inspections of relevant ships.

　

★ Daily Express (2024-2-27): China ignores US warnings and sends ships into Taiwan's restricted waters   Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng told parliament he hoped the situation would be "smoothly handled" so it did not escalate. "We don't want to see any combat conditions occur," he added.

　

2024-2-28, updated 3-4, 3-27

　

　

　

OPinion  

   Taiwan president's secret life


        No.1 on Yandex at '24-3-31
　
-  behind the scenes ?

 

　

The Hill (2024-1-16) :  The centerpiece of the disinformation campaign (China against Taiwan) is a 300-page e-book about the exiting Taiwanese president, titled “The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen”(《蔡英文秘史》)  initially published last month on Zenodo, an online open repository. The document is a stunning attack on President Tsai and, by extension, Vice President Lai (will be next president from May 2024) . The book depicts President Tsai as a vile, morally corrupt dictator, sexually promiscuous and hungry for power. 

　

Are these false news ?   It's unclear that  using the name "disinformation" was because of Presidential Office's statement ?

　

 ♣ 1.  An article (2022-6-15) by the Middle East Media Research Institute (officially the Middle East Media and Research Institute, is an American non-profit press monitoring and analysis organization that was co-founded by Israeli ex-intelligence officer Yigal Carmon and Israeli-American political scientist Meyrav Wurmser in 1997) quoted Global Times (2022-5-23) and wrote that Tsai Ing-wen's regime, including their personal lives, is already in the hands of the Mainland China.

　

 ♣ 2.  "The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen" mentions the careers and fortunes of her parents, and claims that a spokesman for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party  defended that Tsai's father served and repaired Japanese civil aircraft, not Japanese fighter planes at Taiwan's Gangshan Airport (岡山機場), the largest Japanese air-force base overseas, from where the Japanese fighters and bombers took off to execute missions including killing numerous Chinese people...  DPP refuted the accusations that  Tsai's father was a traitor (漢奸) and had assisted Japan in invading China.

  But the Liberty Times (自由時報, 2015-6-21, talk.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/891178 ), a DPP-friendly newspaper, also printed an article saying the Treaty of Shimonoseki (馬關條約) ceded Taiwan to Japan.  From then on, Taiwan became Japan's local government, therefore all Chinese on Taiwan changed their nation-of-citizenship from China to Japan.  "How can a 'Japanese' who repairs military planes in 'Japan' to bomb Japan's enemy be called a traitor?"

From above, we know that "The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen", at least,  is not entirely false news.

　

 ♣ 3.  Besides, The New York Times (2024-1-12) reported some videos about Tsai's personal life, but has not confirmed whether or not the book is disinformation, instead, NYT was merely reporting what Taiwan Presidential Office said (ps) -  those videos are false rumours.

　

 ♣ 4.  Baidu encyclopedia (百度百科) comments "The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen”《蔡英文秘史》written by Taiwanese writer '林樂書' (pen name. They say the author is close to Tsai) as a comprehensive, objective, and vivid & profound interpretation of Tsai Ing-wen's changeable family background, academic career, romance or sexual history, and her political-career.  After the book was written, it was circulated secretly, and till recently, it was open to the public on the Internet.  (全面、客觀、生動的深刻解讀蔡英文多變的家庭背景、學習生涯、情史、政史。)

　

 ♣ 5.  PBS.org, VOA News, Associated press (2024-1-27): Taiwan's de facto ambassador to the U.S. said said the government has learned it must identify and debunk false information as quickly as possible in order to counter false narratives.  “Find it early, like a tumor or cancer. Cut it before it spreads”.  However, it seemed they did not block the "The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen”or took legal action against the author.   Till end of Jan. I still can read that E-book from Internet or Twitter (X)...  In contrast, my websites and me encountered many attacks by unknown power in the past years.

　

 ♣ 6.  Since summer of 2023, a lot of articles in western media criticized or made comments on China's disinformation campaign against Taiwan, however, very few (probably only one) of them said "The Secret History of Tsai Ing-wen”is a false story.

　

2024-1-19, updated 2024-1-27    Chinese version

　

ps: According to BBC, 2020-4-10, Taiwan also denied what WHO chief claimed - Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he had been subjected to racist comments and death threats for months. "Giving me names, black or negro,... the abuse had originated from Taiwan, and the foreign ministry didn't disassociate" itself from it".   Taiwan said the comments from WHO chief were "irresponsible" and the accusations were "imaginary". 

　

　

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣peace through power can deter China ?

　

In 2023, Lai Ching-te (president-elect of Taiwan) said that Terry Gou's (郭台銘) proposal of signing a peace agreement with Beijing won't do any good to Taiwan;  Only peace through power can deter China (和平靠實力), Lai and vice-president-elect Bi-khim Louise Hsiao asserted.

　

How is Taiwan's "power" ?

　

According to the Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index (2023 Edition), Taiwan's "Comprehensive Power" scored 15.2 points, ranked No. 14 among Asian countries, even behind Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam ... ; China scored 72.5, and ranked only next to the US which scored 80.7 points.

　

But, Washington Examiner (2024-2-2) says China has become emboldened by the incompetency that the Biden administration has displayed on the world stage.  America may be spread too thin and preoccupied by wars elsewhere.  In Asia Power Index, the "Military Capability" score of China is 68.1, Taiwan 21.7.

　

the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

Military Capability No.1 US, No.2  China, No.3 Russia, No.4 India,  No.5 S Korea, No.6 Japan, No.7 Australia, No.8 N. Korea, No.9 Singapore, No.10 Pakistan, No.11 Taiwan (ROC),  No.12 Vietnam, No.13 Indonesia, No.14 Thailand  
Resilience No.1 US, No.2  Russia,  No.3 China,  No.4 India, No.5 Australia, No.6 New Zealand , No.7 Indonesia, No.8 Malaysia, No.9 N. Korea, No.10 S. Korea, No.11 Japan, No.12 Brunei ,  No.13 Thailand,  No.14 Singapore,   No.15 Pakistan,  No.16  Sri Lanka,  No. 17 Bangladesh,  No.18 Taiwan (ROC) No.19 Vietnam
Comprehensive Power No. 1.US, 2.Chn, 3.Japan, 4.India, 5. Rus, 6. Aus, 7. S. Korea, 8. Singapore, 9.Indonesia, 10.Thailand,  11.Malaysia, 12. Vietnam, 13. NZ, 14. Taiwan (ROC)

　

This is Tsai Ing-wen's grade report for her 8-year presidency.  

Taiwan's Military Capability ranks No.11 after spending so much money buying US weapons, by contrast,  Singapore's military was trained by Taiwan, and now ranks No.9 in Asia.  

Taiwan's president boasted in National Day (https://www.president.gov.tw/News/27032) not long ago that Taiwan is a country of resilience, now Taiwan's "Resilience" ranks No. 18, even behind Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

2024-2-9

　

Comparison -
The number of best universities of Asian countries in world best indexes
index world ranks China Singapore Japan H K Australia S. Korea Taiwan 　
Nature 1-100 37 2 3 1 　 2 　 　
US News 1-100 4 2 1 4 8 　 　 　
QS 1-25 2 2 1 1 3 1 　 　
25-60 3 　 1 2 3 1 　 　
60-100 　 　 2 2 3 3 1 　
CWUR 1-100 6 1 3 　 2 1 　 　
Times 1-70 6 2 2 3 5 1 　 　
70-100 1 　 　 2 1 2 　 　
Mar. 17, 2024    total 59 9 13 15 25 11 1 　
Ranks 100 ~ 200:

☉  Nature /  after No.100 - Taiwan (NTU 台灣大學) ranks 208, behind Hong Kong , Australia , Israel , Saudi Arabia ,  India, etc

☉  QS / Taiwan (NTU ranks no. 69) is behind Malaysia (no. 65 U. Malaya)
 ☉  CWUR / Taiwan (NTU no. 102) is behind Israel (no. 70, 87)

full text:  https://intlhumanrights.com/education.htm

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣  China's major invasion of Taiwan    ♣ ♣   

　

New York Times (2023-11-29) reported that the president of Taiwan at DealBook Summit said : "I think the Chinese leadership at this juncture is overwhelmed by its internal challenges" , "My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for them to consider a major invasion of Taiwan".

Taiwanese president's hypothesis   ──  a major invasion might lead to a bigger internal challenges or difficulty.  But, more possibilities should be taken into account:

n1. quick fait accompli 

♣ Foreign Policy in Focus (March 2, 2023):  Should China launch an all-out invasion, however, Taiwan would likely succumb within a few days once its air force of just 470 combat aircraft was overwhelmed by the PLA's 2,900 jet fighters, 2,100 supersonic missiles, and its massive navy,... the island's occupation might well be a fait accompli.  
♣ The Atlantic, 2022-10-3 expensive platforms such as fighter aircraft and surface ships—neither of which is likely to survive the first days of a war with China.   NBC, 2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes.
♣ Economist (UK), 2022-4-23: many of the high-end weapons will be quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective.

n2. military operations other than invasion

♣ Newsweek (2023-10-15): Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption.  A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order. 
♣ Washington Examiner (2023-4-12): China has formidable technology.  It is at the forefront of hypersonic missiles, lasers, drones, and artificial intelligence.  It can rain mass destruction on Taiwan just by launching missiles down upon densely populated Taipei or Kaohsiung.
 ♣ Foreign Policy in Focus (March 2, 2023): In its least violent scenario, Reuters speculated that Beijing could use its navy to impose a “customs quarantine” around Taiwan, while announcing an Air Defense Identification Zone over the island and warning the world not to violate its sovereignty.  Then, to tighten the noose, it could move to a full blockade, laying mines at major ports and cutting underwater cables.  Rather than attempting a difficult amphibious invasion, Beijing might complete this staged escalation with saturation missile attacks on Taiwan's cities until its leaders capitulated.

n3. major elections - major invasion

Perhaps this is exactly a time for China to consider a major invasion of Taiwan.  
♣  The Telegraph (UK, 2023-10-27):  Taiwanese and American elections next year and the current world disorder – why an earlier attack might succeed.   Carnegie Endowment for International peace  (2023-10-3) also mentioned China may launch an attack around Taiwan's key election (2024) at the earliest.
 ♣  Washington Post ( 2023-11-13 ):  War could essentially happen any time.
 ♣  Economist ( 2023-11-13 ):  with both America and Taiwan holding elections in 2024, the danger period may start soon.

n4. war to distract its population

♣ A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an international relations term that identifies a war instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife. The concept stems from the Diversionary War Theory, which states that leaders who are threatened by domestic turmoil may initiate an international conflict in order to improve their standing. There are two primary mechanisms behind diversionary war: a manipulation of the rally 'round the flag effect, causing an increase of national fervor from the general public, and "gambling on resurrection", whereby a leader in a perilous domestic situation takes high-risk foreign policy decisions .  e.g.,  To distract its population, China started the Sino-Indian War (1962)、Event on Zhenbao Island (1969「珍寶島事件」 )、PLA's major combat operation in Vietnam (1979).

♣ Reuters (2023-9-12):  China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan, the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China said.

♣ The Nation (2023-4-3): Raising the subject of the war, your political advisers tell you, will distract from the domestic issues that favor the party's chances in the forthcoming congressional election.

♣ US Naval Institute (Mar. 2023), by Elbridge Colby: ... Still others suggest China's economy may decline, increasing Beijing's incentive to act before it weakens.  In any case, Beijing can now clearly see that a coalition is coalescing against it and may judge that its future economic growth and security are in question if it does not act.  This fear is not mere speculation. Rather, an increasing chorus of senior Biden administration officials and military officers have stated that Beijing has moved up its timeline to address the Taiwan issue, that overwhelming force is Beijing's best strategy, and that an invasion is a distinct threat.

n5. China has different logic

Mordern War Institute at West Point (2023-9-14):  Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy given the inevitable global backlash. But autocrats have their own logic and reasons ... This is a scenario the world may see on the news tomorrow, or in a year.

Of course, Beijing could wait longer, time is on its side.   Once Trump take office, his "America first" policy may damage Biden's "int'l union" -  U.S. alliances.
2023-12-1

　

PS: Bloomberg  2023-12-20:  Oriana Skylar Mastro, a Center Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, said that if it came to war with China, “Taiwan 200% will fall.”;  Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at MIT's Center for International Studies and a specialist in Asian security issues, said that he “wouldn't be shocked if Taiwan threw up its hands in the first days of a conflict,” especially if the US was not “visibly committed.”;  A China's blockade is risky because -  The assessment of the US government  -“is that they cannot hold out long.”

PS: NYT, 2024-1-27:  the former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou says: “I don't think China is in any mood to start a war to conquer Taiwan.”

　

　

　

　

OPinion   ♣♣♣   Taiwan faces flood of disinformation  ♣♣     cognitive warfare & interference.♣ ♣   

　

critiques of disinformation from China over Taiwan

further studies
♣ CNN, 2023-12-16: a Beijing-friendly Taiwanese newspaper falsely claimed that Washington had ordered Taipei to develop biological weapons that could be used against China’s People’s Liberation Army...Both Washington and Taipei have refuted the claim that Taiwan was developing biological weapons, and there is no evidence the discussions took place. 
♣ Economist, 2023-9-26 : (a fake news ) America had asked Taiwan to manufacture biological weapons at a lab run by the island’s defence ministry.
♣ The Diplomat (2021-5-26): Both (China and Taiwan) would have the fearful option of using weapons of mass destruction to disperse biological, chemical, and radioactive agents against the other. And both might apply more exotic weapons, such as directed energy weapons and hypersonic missiles.
Economist, 2023-9-26 : ...a spurious claim that America “wants to blow up” TSMC , a Taiwanese chipmaker.  It originated with a misleading video posted on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, which featured an American lawmaker appearing to discuss the possibility. America did have the idea of “blowing up” Taiwan's chip makers.
♣ Washington Post, 2023-5-12:

China might be less likely to spill blood and treasure, Rep. Seth Moulton suggested, to capture a broken economy and shattered technological base. Speaking at a Milken Institute panel in Los Angeles, Rep. Seth Moulton said: “One of the interesting ideas that’s been floated out there for deterrence is just making it very clear to the Chinese that if you invade Taiwan, we’re going to blow up TSMC.”   Of course, the Taiwanese really don’t like this idea.

The Biden administration has been excoriated for leaving $7 billion in U.S. military equipment in Afghanistan as that country fell to the Taliban in 2021.  It’s hard to imagine that a White House on the cusp of losing Taiwan wouldn’t think about how to ensure that dual-use technology worth far more doesn’t fall into the hands of a great-power rival. Moulton’s suggestion might not just make China think twice — it could pressure Taiwan’s political leaders to beef up the island’s defenses. We will need more boundary-pushing thinking like Moulton’s. Washington’s ties to Taipei have steadily tightened.  But that doesn’t mean Taiwan’s interests and America’s will always be identical.

　

♣ National Interest, 2022-6-5: McKinney and Harris have especially argued for the United States and Taiwan to deter China’s invasion “by threatening to destroy facilities belonging to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company [TSMC]—the critically important global chipmaker and China’s most important supplier.  When TSMC is destroyed, “China’s high-tech industries would be immobilized.

　

♣ Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 : At the extreme end of the spectrum, some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied, in an attempt to deter military action or, ultimately, deprive Beijing of the production plants. Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario was raised in a paper by two academics that appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly.

 

♣ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-5-9: Some analysts believe this is still not enough: Taiwan’s fabs are simply too important, they argue, to risk them falling into China’s hands. Instead, the United States or Taiwan should make clear that they would destroy Taiwanese fabs during a conflict. A 2021 paper published in The U.S. Army War College Quarterly argued that the best way to deter Chinese aggression was for the United States and Taiwan to “lay plans for a targeted scorched-earth strategy that would render Taiwan not just unattractive if ever seized by force, but positively costly to maintain. This could be done most effectively by threatening to destroy facilities belonging to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.” Former U.S. national security advisor Robert O’Brien recently resurrected this line of thinking, advocating for destroying Taiwan’s fabs and comparing such a move to Britain’s decision to sink France’s naval fleet after the country surrendered to Nazi Germany. 

♣  Asia Times (2023-5-25) mentioned this too.

　

♣  Besides, journal-neo.org  NEO (2023-4-12, Russia) said :

The CSIS paper admits that the cost of preserving Taiwan’s political autonomy would likely be vast levels of death and destruction including infrastructure and industry on the island of Taiwan.

The paper at times infers this is inevitable and owed to Chinese military actions, however, in other parts of the paper it’s admitted that the US itself would deliberately destroy Taiwan’s infrastructure in a bid to deny its use by the PRC and China’s armed forces.

A recent Bloomberg report showed that the U.S. was drafting up contingency plans that could include evacuating Taiwan’s chip engineers and even considered hypotheticals of putting troops on the ground. 

But one aspect of all the war games is the few war wonks who have advocated that the U.S. threaten to destroy TSMC facilities if China were to move in. A paper published in the Army War College Quarterly last year mentioned a “scorched-earth strategy that would render Taiwan not just unattractive… but positively costly to maintain.”  Bloomberg cites one former Pentagon official who also advocated for Biden to come up with a plan to bomb TSMC.

Of course, those are just a few voices in a very crowded and loud room, but the old children’s sandbox rules of “if I can’t have it, then nobody can” have attracted enough attention that Taiwan’s military officials apparently made a response.

　
Daily Express (UK), 2022-10-12, SCMP (Hong Kong), 2022-10-12: Taiwan has rejected a proposal to destroy its flagship semiconductor industry in the event of a Chinese invasion,   Taiwan’s  security chief said it would be effectively useless for China to take over the factories, which was why they did not need to be destroyed.

TSMC needs to integrate global elements before producing high-end chips. Without components or equipment […] without any key components, there is no way TSMC can continue its production.”

He added: "Even if China got a hold of the golden hen, it won’t be able to lay golden eggs.”

 　

♣  If what Taiwan’s  security chief said was true, why did Washington Examiner (2023-9-27) warned that If China were to invade Taiwan and seize its semiconductor production, it could rapidly catch up to the U.S. in areas such as AI technology.

　

♣  The Atlantic (2022-10-3): Were China to seize Taiwan, one of two things could happen to the chip supply: The microchip factories could end up being controlled by China, or they could be destroyed in a conflict.

　

♣  journal-neo.org  NEO (2023-4-12, Russia) said :

An article (see above) cites Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong who claimed that even if China secured TSMC’s facilities, supply chain issues would make it impossible for the facilities to continue functioning. Whether this is true or not, the US would likely take a “better safe than sorry” approach and destroy the facilities anyway.

　
The Telegraph, 2023-12-16: the US is sacrificing Taiwan because it wants to compete with China ♣ War On The Rocks, 2023-11-9:

Consider disinformation. In June, Chinese spokesperson Zhu Fenglian claimed that the United States was preparing to “abandon” Taiwan after turning it into a “minefield” and “ammunition depot.” Still another narrative held that the United States is seeking to provoke a war in the Taiwan Strait in order to protect its regional influence from growing Chinese power, and that Taiwan should be wary of becoming America’s cannon fodder. Of course, such opinions are not in themselves “disinformation,” and there are many in Taiwan who organically hold these opinions. But the scale and coordination of these narratives strongly points to direct Chinese orchestration. And more worrying, this messaging campaign is facilitating the spread of “American skepticism” (疑美论) and an accompanying decline in belief that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense, as measured in a number of recent Taiwan polls. 

　

♣ Washington Examiner , 2023-6-23Foreign Policy Research Institute expert (Lonnie Henley) said that too many U.S. military planners want to jump straight from defeating the invasion to the regional conflict with China and forget about Taiwan.

♣ WSWS.org (US), 2023-11-29  the Biden administration, following on from Trump, has deliberately transformed the island into a dangerous flashpoint for conflict with China, even as it wages war against Russia in Ukraine and backs Israel’s genocidal onslaught on Gaza.

　

♣ The Hill, 2023-9-14 (everything to lose if relations deteriorate to the point of direct armed conflict ... ) :  By refusing to be drawn into a war with China in an otherwise horrible situation, the United States would have an enormous power advantage over China. The American military would still be unharmed and at full strength, while the People’s Liberation Army would be severely degraded by any attempt to penetrate Taiwan’s defenses. It could take China more than a decade to recover from its losses. We would have the unchallenged upper hand, both regionally as well as globally. Our national security would remain fully within our ability to guarantee.

Choosing to allow righteous anger to drive our response — which many Americans would understandably feel if China attacked Taiwan — could plunge us into a war that would, in the best case, severely diminish our ability to defend our country. In the worst case, it could lead to a nuclear exchange in which entire American cities could be wiped out.

As much as we would hate to see China capture Taiwan, nothing on that island is worth risking America’s entire national security.

♣ SCMP, 2023-11-21: CSIS expert Blanchette pointed out that some of the worst military crises in the Taiwan Strait, such as the 1996 missile crisis after then president Lee Teng-hui's visit to the US and Pelosi's visit in August 2022, were triggered by political actions by US government officials resulting in angry responses by Beijing.  US political moves, war planning risk destabilising Taiwan Strait.

♣ New York Times,  2023-4-14: China’s Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting.

♣ Newsweek, 2023-10-30: Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) : a "certain country" was trying to "provoke proxy wars." ..."They pass knives behind their backs and don't hesitate to provoke proxy wars," Zhang said, referring to the U.S. "Wherever its hands extend to, that is where peace and quiet is not possible."


 ♣ The LOWY Institute (Australia) , 6-16-2020 :  treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security. Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.　https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard

　

♣  WSWS.org,  2022-7-27: the United States is transforming the island into an offensive launch platform for war with China, seeking to provoke China into military action against Taiwan.

♣  WSWS.org,  2022-11-5: The Biden administration is seeking to provoke Beijing into military actions, possibly over Taiwan 

　

♣  Nation, 2023-3-17: Strangely enough, however, nowhere in official circles is there a single prominent figure asking the most basic question of all: Does China actually have any serious intention of invading Taiwan or are we manufacturing a crisis over nothing?

China’s leaders seem to have concluded that time is on their side—that the Taiwanese people will, eventually, voluntarily decide to unite with the mainland. This approach is spelled out in Beijing’s recent white paper, “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” released last August by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the PRC’s State Council. As China grows increasingly prosperous, the paper argues, the Taiwanese—especially young Taiwanese—will see ever greater benefits from unification, diminishing the appeal of independence, or “separatism.” it appears that Chinese leaders are prepared to invest massive resources in persuading the Taiwanese that reunification is in their best interests.

　

♣  journal-neo.org  NEO, 2023-4-12: Taiwan Pushed Closer to Conflict by Washington.

　
　

The Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-16:  Taiwan’s leaders of sending their children to the US to avoid being drafted in a future war.

　

 Taiwan's president has not married.  But the grandson of Taiwan's vice president (Lai Ching-te, running for next president) is an American citizen, Lai's sons have permanent residency (PR-USA).
CNN, 2023-12-17: Methods include spreading disinformation... fabricated allegations of mass surveillance by Taiwan security agencies over Taiwanese individuals 　

(1) Taiwan's Minister of Interior said this case is under investigation, psychological warfare usually spreads news that are 30% true and 70% false.

(2) United Daily (Taiwan, 2023-12-13): It's already a state of normality that Taiwan's  government evade or refuse oversight/supervision by the name "classified".   We do need rotation of ruling parties to eliminate such "Green Terror".  udn.com/news/story/7338/7636736?from=udn-catebreaknews_ch2
(3) Global Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan who are mentally controlling the Taiwan people.

　
The Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-16: the potential for war between Taiwan and China frequently surfaced as topics intended to instil fear in the public and a sense that the government could not guarantee security, ...They create distrust in the government – ‘don’t trust your government, your government is lying’ n(1) FEAR in the public

♣ Wall Street Journal (2023-1-26) :   If he (Lai Ching-te) does win, Beijing could move quickly to invade. The U.S. is unprepared for such a crisis.

♣ The China Project, 2023-10-27:  Taiwan island elegy: Coming to terms with Taiwan’s potential demise.  An unwinnable war and unification by force may be coming to Taiwan. How are its people to process the prospect of national demise?
 ♣ FoxNews, 2023-12-18: Joint Chiefs chairman says 'We all should be ' worried about China possibly invading Taiwan.
♣ NPR.org, 2023-12-18: Taiwan has about 169,000 active duty forces and 2 million in reserves, though critics say they are poorly trained

　

n(2) War or Peace

♣  Newsweek (2023-10-26): Taiwan voters must choose between war and peace
 ♣  China Daily (2023-11-24) : the Chinese mainland on Friday called on people in Taiwan to make the right choice between peace and war

♣   Washington Post (2023-11-28): Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades.
 ♣   NBC(2023-11-27): China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline".... The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing...impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.

♣  Telegraph (UK), 2023-12-2: Taiwan is about to vote against China.  War is coming.

　

n(3) Taiwanese government could not guarantee security
♣ Wall Street Journal (2023-7-5):the island ... is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan’s military are a particular concern, Western officials say. 。 the Russian thrust into Ukraine drove home to many Taiwanese that war can erupt with little notice.
♣  The Guardian (UK), 2023-7-9: politicians and military analysts are increasingly concerned that the island’s defences are not strong enough to repel an invasion from a more powerful aggressor...only a fraction of the reservists are thought to be combat-ready.
 ♣    Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...

 
 n(4)  Taiwan's government is lying

♣  Lie 1 / Chinese government attacks Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim lying (Xi promised Biden in SF meeting that China won't attack Taiwan in the next a few years) for votes, which is "quoted me out of context and quite distorted original meaning" (賴清德與蕭美琴，為了騙取選票，對美中元首會晤「.斷章取義、歪曲事實」，說北京未來幾年都沒有攻台計畫)  ...msn.com/zh-tw/news/other/國台辦批賴蕭配騙票-警告台獨就等於戰爭/ar-AA1kzCYo?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ASTS&cvid=fad387d21d5143d6ad13c7d7005388ec&ei=26
　

♣  Lie 2 / Reuters (2023-11-23): Hsiao Bi-khim makes clear to our counterparts across the Taiwan Strait that dialogue is the only way to resolve differences. War is not an option" .  In Washington Post (2023-11-24) Hsiao said so too.
Reuters (2023-11-24): Lai, along with Tsai, has repeatedly offered talks with China but have been rebuffed, as Beijing views them both as separatists.

　

♣  Lie 3 / Lai Ching-te repeatedly said peace needs power (「實力」).  This phrase is misleading voters, because Taiwan has no power.

for instance,

n Economist (2022-3-5): American security types have long grumbled that Taiwanese, especially the young, seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. They will take comfort from the mood change. A more substantive concern has been Taiwan’s sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence.

n  National Review (2023-7-15): According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, “President Biden does not see the relationship between the U.S. and China through the frame of great-power conflict.” If reelected, he may prefer not to fight for Taiwan
 n  Washington Examiner (2023-9-6): Trump implies he would not intervene against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
n Washington Post (2022-3-9), Politico (2021-3-15): Trump told a law-maker that "If they invade, there isn’t a f---ing thing we can do about it."
CNN, 2023-12-16: One piece of disinformation highlighted by officials was a recent rumor that Hsiao Bi-khim – the DPP’s vice-presidential candidate and until recently Taiwan’s top representative in Washington — is a US citizen.

　

♣ United Daily (Taiwan, 2023-12-18):

Hsiao Bi-khim's phrase about her nationality has been changeable or capricious (說辭反覆)， she has not made it clear till present.

♣ According to The China Times (Taiwan, 2023-12-8  chinatimes.com/opinion/20231208004464-262101?chdtv)

(1) 中選會雖然在5日公布總統及副總統資格審議結果，認為3組參選人符合規定，均具有中華民國國籍，但外界猜疑之聲並未至此終結。這不僅是因為淪為政治打手的中選會早已失去公信力，更因為民進黨政府一再為了討好美國而犧牲台灣民眾利益，對蕭美琴質疑的背後，是對民進黨政府總在美國人面前俯首貼耳的憤怒。
　

(2) 蕭美琴父從未有喪失或回復國籍紀錄，依據《國籍法》，蕭美琴一出生就具有中華民國國籍。問題是，蕭美琴自己曾經在2009年說過，從小只有美國籍，2002年就任立委前申辦放棄美國籍，拿到立委就任證書後，馬上宣誓成為中華民國國民。依《總統副總統選舉罷免法》規定，曾喪失、回復國籍者不得登記為總統、副總統候選人，那麼蕭美琴其實是沒有參選資格的。內政部說她及其父親從未放棄中華民國國籍，這和蕭美琴當年的敘述有很大矛盾，到底誰說的是真話？原本應該超然中立的中選會，在蔡英文執政以來早已成為政治打手，為了護航民進黨把公投改過來又改過去，現在為蕭美琴掛的保證，已缺乏足夠的可信度。

(3) 蕭美琴和吳欣盈都遲遲沒有拿出放棄美國國籍的證明文件。曾任民進黨不分區立委的邱彰表示不相信蕭美琴放棄了美國籍，因為她個人的經驗是不能在台灣的美國在台協會（AIT）辦理，必須到第三國辦理，而蕭美琴在受訪時卻自稱是到AIT辦理放棄國籍。邱彰透露，她當年到上海美國領事館辦理放棄國籍時，領事問她是否因為受台灣法律的脅迫，她點頭後對方就在申請書上蓋「拒絕」，並表示她有申請放棄的責任，但領事不同意她放棄美國國籍。所有成功放棄美國籍的人，都會收到美國國務院寄來的「放棄國籍證明」，蕭美琴是否有這紙證明？

的確，只要拿出白紙黑字的一張證明，有關雙重國籍的議題就可以完全釋疑，但蕭美琴沒拿出來

　

economist.com/asia/2023/09/26/china-is-flooding-taiwan-with-disinformation

　

ending ~

Some media reported interference from China using methods include spreading disinformation, malicious rumors, deliberately planted magnifying narratives favorable to Beijing, trashing politicians seen as tough on China ... fabricated allegations of mass surveillance by Taiwan security agencies over Taiwanese individuals.

But there's no many articles reporting interference from countries other than China.  
 ♣ Bloomberg  (2023-6-15) :  US Presses Taiwan Opposition Candidate Over China Policies.
♣ Washington Post (2023-11-28): During a recent television appearance, Ko (Taiwan presidential candidate, chair of 民眾黨 party) declared that various countries want to “dip their fingers in” Taiwan’s elections and claimed that the American Institute in Taiwan, the United States’ de facto embassy, called him to ask about Chinese influence.  

♣ According to Denmark's Democracy Perception Index ( DPI 2021) after Taiwan's presidential election last time, democracy in Taiwan was threatened by US: 58%, Russia: 20%,China : 65%. allianceofdemocracies.org/initiatives/the-copenhagen-democracy-summit/dpi-2021/ 

♣ Denmark's Democracy Perception Index (DPI 2023): "% of people living in democracies perceive the threat of foreign election interference", Taiwan ranks the 7th from last.

2023-12-19

　

　

　

　

OPinion  ♣♣    ♣ ♣     Taiwan media shift the focus

　

　

　


　

    

　

  Taiwan's CTS shifted the focus to Biden rejecting Xi's request not to support Taiwan Independence
　

　

New York Post (2023-12-20):Xi told Biden he plans to take Taiwan — by any means necessary;  NBC (2023-12-20):Xi's private warning to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal presidential election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Business Insider (2023-12-20): Xi straight-up told Biden that China is going to take over Taiwan, report says. It could end in war;  Daily Mail (2023-12-20):  Top Republicans alarmed by 'beyond unnerving' report Xi warned Biden that China WILL reunify with Taiwan in blunt message ; SUN UK (2023-12-20): Xi ‘warned Biden to his face that China WILL take Taiwan – and didn't rule out full-force invasion at any minute’
　

　

　

In Nov., Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden held a summit meeting in San Francisco.   Taiwan's media used western media's report, but shifted the focus, and played down the serious issue.

　

media (US, UK)

media (Taiwan)
♣ SUN (UK, 2023-12-20): NO STOPPING XI 

Brazen Xi ‘warned Biden to his face that China WILL take Taiwan – and didn't rule out full-force invasion at any minute’

♣ abc news (2023-12-20 video): President Xi says China plans to try to reunify with Taiwan: Sources

♣ New York Post (2023-12-20) : Xi told Biden he plans to take Taiwan — by any means necessary;
♣ Business Insider (2023-12-20): Xi straight-up told Biden that China is going to take over Taiwan, report says. It could end in war.
 ♣ Dail Mail (2023-12-20) :Top Republicans alarmed by 'beyond unnerving' report Xi warned Biden that China WILL reunify with Taiwan in blunt message during crunch talks in San Francisco;
♣ NBC (2023-12-21): Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China; 
♣ NBC Universal (2023-12-21):  Xi’s comments on reunification could influence Taiwan’s upcoming election

 ♣   TTV News (台視 2023-12-21): China asked Biden to make a public statement not to support Taiwanese independence,  The White House rejected.
　

♣  SETN (2023-12-21): Foreign media reported Xi told Biden he will reunify Taiwan;   White House: not something new
　

♣  CTS News  (2023-12-21): China asked Biden to support peaceful reunification and not to support Taiwanese independence.  rejected?  The White House avoided answering https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAavn7h9AMs
　

♣  Kimo (2023-12-21): US media: China asked Biden to make a statement that the US does not support Taiwanese independence,  The White House rejected the request.

　

♣  CTS 華視  (2023-12-21): Foreign media reported Xi told Biden he will reunify Taiwan;    White House: nothing new

　

Media (UK, US) straightforwardly reported that China will reunify Taiwan  ──  full-force invasion at any minute...  by any means necessary... it could end in war... 

But many media in Taiwan shifted the focus to that the US rejected China's request  ── not to support Taiwan's Independence;  and played down China will reunify Taiwan by adding a question mark, or "it's nothing new" ...

　

Some US media like Business Insider even have not reported China's request. 
New York Post:  The White House spokesperson went on to say that the US will continue to adhere to its “One China” policy of not recognizing Taiwan as independent.  
Daily Mail: National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said that Biden was 'clear' with Xi that the U.S. still adheres to the One China policy and does not support independence for Taiwan.   NBC (2023-12-26): After the summit, Biden reiterated long-standing U.S. policy. “We maintain an agreement that there is a 'One China' policy,” he said, adding, “I'm not going to change that. That’s not going to change.”

　

Why did Taiwan's media report in that way ?
(1) Taiwan's ruling party supports Taiwan Independence, and most of media controlled by the gov. want to impress or mislead the public that the US 'supports' Taiwan Independence, one way or another. 
(2) Taiwan's presidential election is coming soon, war news is very disadvantaged to the ruling party.

2023-12-22, updated 12-26

　

　

　

　

　

2023-12-21

　

　

　

　

　

pic.:  No.1 comment Taiwan (Chinese version 評論國是) on US Google, 2025-6-20

　


          
     
　

　


pic.:  No.2 comment Taiwan (Chinese version ) on US Google ,  2024-2-11, 2024-2-1, 2024-1-9, 2024-1-1, 2023-12-23, 2023-12-12, 2023-12-4, 2023-11-25