Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-29   China VS. Taiwan

changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait

◆  Washington Examiner, 2023-4-25:  a war over Taiwan is, in the best case, a war the U.S. may still lose... the provision of Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-air missiles to Ukraine comes as an undeniable detriment to Taiwan's defensive potential.  Both might decide the outcome of the next war ◆ The Hill, 2023-4-19: The battle lines are being drawn for a war across East Asia involving Taiwan ◆ U.S. Naval War College  - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system,  the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times)  ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-13:  In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: An invasion would almost certainly begin with massive missile and rocket strikes on Taiwan. These would quickly destroy much of Taiwan’s navy, air force and air defences. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks ◆ Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief:  Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan  ◆ EurAsian Times, 2023-2-26:  "No Boots On Ground': Majority Of US Voters' Chicken Out’ From Sending Soldiers To Taiwan To Battle China ◆ Japan Times, 2023-2-19:  There is no evidence that China is in a hurry to attack Taiwan, despite a number of U.S. government and military officials citing 2027 or even 2025 as a potential deadline for forcible unification ◆ Daily Express (UK), 2023-2-17: A "proxy war" between China and the US over Taiwan could happen during the Biden presidency  ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-2-17:  New House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman: Ukraine is capable of fighting on their own if we give them the weapons. Taiwan cannot fight this war alone, even if we gave them the weapons.  ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan   ◆ US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war;  it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch ◆ Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. ◆ Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan.  "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade".◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence ; If  Lai Ching-te (a staunch proponent of the island's independence) does win, Beijing could move quickly to invade. ◆  New York Post, 2023-1-14:  the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles.  ◆  full text 

 ◆The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general ◆ The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to erupt，Taiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints ◆ The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion ◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people  ◆  Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still  ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024   ◆  France 24, 2022-12-26: Seventy-one warplanes deployed by China in war drills - the largest reported incursion to date ◆ Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆  full text 

 ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely  ◆ National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn’t Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential ◆ 1945, 2022-12-12:  the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury  ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy ◆  SCMP,2022-11-3: China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification, even if US says so ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28: U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2022-10-27:  A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future ◆ The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk ◆ Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue ◆ Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing ◆ The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur  ◆ New York Times,2022-10-17: China's leader warns of “perilous, stormy seas”ahead ◆ Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress;  the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of opera tional experience  ◆ New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns against international 'interference' ◆ VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War ◆ Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies.  ◆ The SUN (UK),2022-10-16:an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan. ◆Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... Taiwan professor:“Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake ◆ TIME, 2022-10-5:  Even without a blockade, a Chinese air and missile campaign alone could defang Taiwan's military and shut down the country's economy ◆ NY Times, 2022-10-5: If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, American ... would offer the least likelihood ...into direct conflict; Cornell prof.: The U.S. has to make clear that the U.S. doesn't have a strategic interest in having Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China  ◆  full text 

 ◆ Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal".◆ FoxNews, 2022-10-2: soon-to-be Secretary-General of ASEAN: China 'would not' invade Taiwan if Beijing believes it owns the island ◆  Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says ◆ CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆The Hill, 2022-9-15: The next step would be to enforce a quarantine of the island to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and slowly strangle their economy until an agreement is reached. ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2022-9-14: (US) military's most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s...This creates a window of vulnerability for Taiwan, most likely between 2024 and 2027  ◆  full text 

◆ Diplomat, 2022-9-13: the most fundamental threat Taiwan faces is to its economy and its energy system (imports nearly all of its energy) ◆ LA Times, 2022-9-11: China's leaders know their power is about to diminish, and that will make them more likely to take risks in the short run — to invade Taiwan, for example  ◆  full text 

Defending Taiwan by Taiwanese ?? some human factors ~
President Tsai I. W.	youngsters	the public
♣ VICE, 2022-9-28: president's prescriptions have been piecemeal, and there is no national plan to overhaul the military. (developing asymmetric warfare capabilities as US experts advise) ♣ Roll Call, 2022-9-28: ...overhaul its military reservist program — our general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to 50 and their children, will fight against that policy... “It's hard for the ruling party to do it !" Younger voters are a critical base of support for president Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party. 　 ♣ New York Times, 2022-6-19: politicians have electoral considerations ( military conscription reform) ♣ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6:  The policy of lengthening mandatory military service won't be decided until end of 2022 , obviously the admin. is with an eye to presidential election. udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2	♣ Roll Call, 2022-9-28: Most people do not want to join the military... The March opinion poll : lower levels of support (56 percent) among the 20-24 age group for lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year. 　 ♣ China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year.   World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are willing to be on the battlefield.   chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv 　 　 PS: By law, all able-bodied men in South Korea must serve 18-21 months in the military under a conscription system; In Israel - men 32 months and women 24 months, minimum.	♣ axios,2022-9-27:  ...the common belief in Taiwan that if China were to invade, Taiwan would have no choice but to surrender immediately. ♣ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ... 　 ♣ Global Times, 2022-10-10: a poll shows that only 41.4 percent gave a definite "yes" to the determination to sacrifice themselves to defend the island, according to Taiwan-based media globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276853.shtml 　 ♣ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps 　 ♣ Brookings, 2021-1-22: Only 23% thought that democracy was more important than economic development.  16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than reducing economic inequality. 　 ♣  United Daily (Taiwan, 聯合報), 2022-10-10: The great majority of polls show Taiwanese are not willing to fight for "Taiwan independence".  udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2
☉ S. Korean presidential candidates have never tried to win the election by shortening mandatory military service (their service days is about 5 times of Taiwan's), but Taiwan's politicians do !   for instance, a ruling party's law-maker Tsai argues what's the reason to lengthen military service !? (see udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2   2022-10-6 ) ☉ United Daily,2022-10-10: The Defense chief told the US that the mandatory military service can be lengthen up to 2~3 years, but President Tsai decide it'll be just 1 year at present for electoral considerations.(and not to declare until end of election)    brief udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2  陳一新 榮譽教授

◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-12:Xi Jinping would invade Taiwan if authorities in Taipei stop referring to their government as the Republic of China ◆ The Global and Mail (Canada), 2022-9-10: Taiwan's long-term survival prospects are much worse than Ukraine's... it would probably take Taiwan five years of defence spending at 5 per cent of GDP, ... a return to several years of conscription and large active reserves in the Israeli model  ◆ Foreign Policy,2022-9-8: strategic priorities, budgets, and acquisition limitations, are preventing Taipei from laying in the critical war-reserve materiel it would need to against PLA ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-9-7: In Taiwan, many young citizens concluded that conscription was a waste of time and a tedious chore....those with political connections seek to be posted in cities rather than at the border or in the field. ◆ Bloomberg , 2022-9-7: China Invading Taiwan Is ‘Distinct Threat’◆ Weekend Australian , 2022-9-7: Best way to avoid war is to arm Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-6: Taiwan sees Bidens political-fears weakening us-strategy to counter china  ◆  full text     (中文版 Chinese)    

◆ The Hill, 2022-9-6: none of the three governments that could begin a war over Taiwan — those in Washington, Beijing and Taipei — should see war as in its interest...Taiwan will be extremely hard for us to defend ◆ abc news, 2022-9-5: Military reserves, Civil Defense worry Taiwan as China looms ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-5: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid 'challenges from within' ◆Daily Express (UK), 2022-8-29: WW3 looming as 'no good options' remain in 'dangerous' China-US conflict over Taiwan  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island  ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: America has changed,...it began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today...  Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend itself ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed ◆ Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect. ◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan - have become "acceptable" - because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this becomes the new standard  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-8: China's drills near Taiwan is a sign that Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its airspace and waters ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-7: China’s leader has made it clearer than any of his predecessors that he sees unifying Taiwan with China to be a primary goal of his rule ◆ The Hill, 2022-8-6: Taiwan...too economically dependent on China to withstand an economic cold war with Beijing. ◆  full text 

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-8-5: Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan... it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3: failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago. ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine  ◆ New York Times, 2022-7-26: The risks to Taiwan from Chinese aggression have gained urgency since Russia's attacks on Ukraine... a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for China to pull off in the near term. Instead, it could do so piecemeal ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait ◆The Hill , 2022-7-26: The longer the Biden administration continues delaying and stinting its support for Ukraine without enabling Kyiv to halt and reverse Russia's invasion, the more precarious both Ukraine's and Taiwan's positions become ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan — possibly by force — is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan ◆ le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan  ◆  full text 

◆ DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20:  Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military reforms◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-7: Chinese diplomat says 'reunification' with Taiwan near ◆  full text 

◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-3:  these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆VOA, 2022-6-30: US Believes China Still Hoping to Take Taiwan Without Force ◆ Axios,2022-6-28: Taiwan focuses on power projection instead of defense,  and lacks a well-developed security studies academic community... distrust in Taiwan between politicians and the military lingers  ◆ EurAsian Times, 2022-6-27: Bonnie Glaser told Politico: the active-duty military is not willing to work with the reserve force, which is seen as insufficiently trained;  there isn’t much enthusiasm among the civilians to work with the military or the military to work with civilians  ◆ N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat /  ...Taiwan is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan’s defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed... Taiwan military leaders argue that smaller weapons are not useful for standing up to China in visible ways.  Long-range missiles capable of striking the mainland could deter Beijing ...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help. ◆ Guardian, 2022-6-15: Tensions heighten in Taiwan Strait as China acts to extend military operations ◆ Newsweek, 2022-6-15: China Warns of Taiwan Demise After Official Claims Missiles Can Hit Beijing ◆ Taipei Times, 2022-6-11:A survey conducted by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo showed that 73 percent of respondents believe China might take military action against Taiwan. ◆ AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says;  With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japanese Prime Minister issued a stark warning at the summit: "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow". ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price...China is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe" bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq. ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-6-1: Washington fears a possible Chinese invasion by 2027. All for one: U.S. enlists its Asian allies in defense of Taiwan  ◆ Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30: Putin is winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much deadlier  ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-27: A 2018 congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan, citing China’s increasingly advanced capabilities and myriad U.S. logistical difficulties ◆  NY Times, 2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2022-5-17:  US wanted Taiwan to focus on capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, air and missile defences, command and communications, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, and early- warning systems... Taipei also wants to guard against, such as Chinese incursions into its air defence identification zone or a sea blockade  ◆  full text 

◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-10: James Anderson: The PRC roughly has that capability to forcibly retake the island sooner than 2027 ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4: Since the Chinese economy is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous. ◆ Washington Post, 2022-5-4:  China insists... has no plans to attack the island it claims as its own. ◆ Guardian, 2022-4-24: ... waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking into conflict may well be growing ◆ Economist, 2022-4-20: the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days; Taiwan can learn ...Fighting spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe ◆  Bloomberg, 2022-4-21: Putin's Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming force ◆ Taipei Times, 2022-4-25: Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance  ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-4-18: Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut  ◆ Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil -  to deter America from intervening in conflict over Taiwan  ◆  full text