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Latest
news: ◆
Washington Post, 2022-7-3:
these steps
(asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to
repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory
military service ... spend
more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are
comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆VOA, 2022-6-30: US Believes China Still Hoping to Take
Taiwan Without Force ◆ Axios,2022-6-28:
Taiwan focuses on power projection instead of
defense, and lacks a
well-developed security studies academic community... distrust in
Taiwan between politicians and the military lingers ◆
EurAsian
Times,
2022-6-27:
Bonnie Glaser told Politico:
the active-duty military is
not willing to work with the reserve force, which is seen as insufficiently
trained; there isn’t much enthusiasm among the
civilians to work with the military or the military to work with civilians
◆
N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19:Taiwan
is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. Extending
military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan’s defenses are, by many
accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...
Taiwan military leaders
argue that smaller weapons are not useful for standing up to China in visible
ways. Long-range missiles capable of striking
the mainland could deter Beijing ...Should China
invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly
crumble unless the United States and its allies help. ◆
Guardian,
2022-6-15: Tensions heighten in Taiwan Strait as China acts to extend
military operations ◆ Newsweek,
2022-6-15: China Warns of Taiwan Demise After Official Claims Missiles
Can Hit Beijing ◆ Taipei Times,
2022-6-11:A
survey conducted by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo
showed that 73 percent of respondents believe China might take military action
against Taiwan. ◆ AFP, France24,
2022-6-10: China
will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says;
With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japanese Prime
Minister issued a stark warning at the summit: "Ukraine today may be East Asia
tomorrow". ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry
that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go
to war over Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price...China
is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe"
bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq.
◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-6-1:
Washington fears a possible Chinese invasion by 2027. All for
one: U.S. enlists its Asian allies in defense of Taiwan
◆ Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30:
Putin is
winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much
deadlier ◆ NY Times,
2022-5-27:
A 2018
congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive
military defeat” in a war over Taiwan,
citing China’s increasingly advanced capabilities and myriad U.S. logistical
difficulties
◆ NY Times,
2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine
line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of
China to order an attack on Taiwan ◆ NY Times,
2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would
fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's
defense budget... remains scandalously low ◆
Financial
Times (UK), 2022-5-17: US
wanted Taiwan to focus on capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, air and
missile defences, command and communications, intelligence surveillance and
reconnaissance, and early- warning systems... Taipei
also wants to guard against, such as Chinese incursions into its air defence
identification zone or a sea blockade
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full text
US military would defend Taiwan
by ‘intervening
militarily’
? |
◆ New
York Times, 2022-5-23: Biden Says
U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded,
dispensing with the “strategic
ambiguity” traditionally favored by American presidents
...The White House quickly tried to deny ...,
Mr. Biden’s unscripted declaration put Japan in a
complicated position. 。nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-defense.html
◆
Guardian, 2022-5-23: Biden's
Taiwan vow creates confusion not clarity – and raises China tensions
theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/23/biden-taiwan-china-strategic-ambiguity-us-foreign-policy
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-23:
“We agree with the One China policy and all the
attendant agreements we made. But the idea that it can be taken by
force, just taken by force, would just not be appropriate,” Mr. Biden
said.。wsj.com/articles/biden-says-u-s-would-intervene-militarily-if-china-invaded-taiwan-11653286228
◆ New
York Post, 2022-5-23:White House
walks back Biden Taiwan defense claim for third time in 9 months
nypost.com/2022/05/23/white-house-walks-back-biden-taiwan-defense-claim-again/
◆
Politico, 2022-5-23:The president's
“strategic ambiguity” backtrack may hasten Taiwan Strait conflict,
observers say
◆
Economist, 2022-5-23: the gap
between presidential statements and official policy is giving rise to a
new form of ambiguity—strategic perhaps; or maybe simply incoherent
economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/05/23/what-is-americas-policy-of-strategic-ambiguity-over-taiwan
◆
BBC, 2022-5-23:Biden vows to defend
Taiwan in apparent US policy shift
◆
TIME, 2022-5-23:president Biden's
Vow To Defend Taiwan Is Bold but Incredibly Risky
◆
Bloomberg, 2022-5-23:Biden Misspeaks
on Taiwan, Says US Military Would Intervene
◆ AFP, CBS News, 2022-5-23:
President Joe Biden said Monday the U.S. would
intervene militarily if China were
to invade Taiwan, in one of the most forceful and overt statements of
American government support for Taiwan in decades.
。Beijing was quick to respond,
... "No one should underestimate the firm resolve, staunch will and
strong ability of the Chinese people in defending national sovereignty
and territorial integrity" .
cbsnews.com/news/biden-china-taiwan-us-military-recession-monkeypox/
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Global Times, 2022-5-23: Biden's
remarks on ‘intervening militarily’ in Taiwan question not gaffe but
signals hollowing out one-China policy......"Sending
troops is military interference, offering weapons and military
intelligence and conducting rescue can also be interpreted as
'intervening militarily'... the US... will
have no time and no willingness to come to Taiwan's rescue.
◆ New
York Times, 2022-5-24: Asked
if he would send in troops if China attacked Taiwan, Biden said, “The
policy has not changed at all.” |
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-10:
James Anderson:
The
PRC roughly has that capability to forcibly retake the island sooner than 2027
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4:
Since the Chinese economy
is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be
virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's
lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous.
◆
Washington Post, 2022-5-4:
China insists... has no plans to attack the island it
claims as its own. ◆
Guardian, 2022-4-24: ...
waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking
into conflict may
well be growing
◆ Economist, 2022-4-20:
the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the
need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days;
Taiwan can learn ...Fighting
spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe
◆
Bloomberg, 2022-4-21:
Putin's
Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming
force
◆ Taipei Times, 2022-4-25:
Richard D. Fisher, Jr.:
Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new
very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance
◆
Wall
street Journal, 2022-4-18:
Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's
reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut
◆
Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house
nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil - to
deter America from intervening in conflict
over Taiwan
◆
full text
Taiwan VS. US's
"porcupine" weapons |
The
US disagrees Taiwan's
requests for big-ticket weapons |
◆ Economist,
2022-5-10:These flashier purchases are politically
popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military
leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone”
attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault
has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have
increased every year
◆WEEK
(UK), 2022-5-12:
Taiwan
plans to
“throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a
Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”
◆
United
Dialy (Taiwan),
2022-5-19
:
Can the
guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block
the Russian main force in Ukraine?
◆
The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26
:
Urban
guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large
number of civilian casualties。
◆
Foreign Policy,
2020-8-20 :
“Their underlying thinking is that PLA
has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway...
Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being
tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that
Americans come to our rescue
◆
Financial
Times,
2022-5-17:
Washington was right to
push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion,
but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.
|
◆ New York Times,
2022-5-7: US
presses Taiwan to buy
missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited
to Win Against China); But some Taiwanese
defense officials are resistant.
◆
FoxNews,
2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against
Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
◆
Politico,
2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests
for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive
items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out
assault from the mainland.
◆
Economist, 2022-5-10:
expensive conventional
equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines —
are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile —
a "porcupine"
strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
◆
Politico,
2022-5-19:
the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has
taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the
administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside
their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
◆
WSJ
,
2022-5-8:
F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
◆
National Interest, 2022-5-15:
One important task has been to tailor the
provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s
military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and
Seahawk helicopters.
◆
Foreign Policy
, 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's
leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
◆
Diplomat, 10-5-2020:
Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance
armed drones... |
" Strategic
Clarity" - US defend Taiwan |
"Strategic
Ambiguity" |
◆
Independent,
2022-4-19:
Japanese former PM
Abe Shinzo (安倍):China
are permanent, veto-wielding members of the United Nations Security
Council, the UN’s mediation function cannot be relied upon for
conflicts in which they are involved... Ukraine is an independent state
beyond any doubt, Taiwan is not....Unlike in
Ukraine, Chinese leaders could claim that any invasion of Taiwan
that China launches is necessary to suppress anti-government
activities in one of its own regions, and that such acts therefore
would not violate international law...The time has come for the US
to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted
Chinese invasion.
◆
Japan
Times,
2022-4-19:
U.S. 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan
must end!
US policy of ambiguity
toward Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by
encouraging China to underestimate U.S. resolve...
|
◆
The
Guardian,
2022-4-24: a switch
from “strategic ambiguity” to clarity ...
would prompt a major reaction from Beijing and might
not enhance deterrence。
◆
Economist,
2022-4-23: Promising
to fight for Taiwan, as some advocate, would do little to deter
China, which already assumes America will do so. And such a promise
would, at the very least, cause a diplomatic crisis...President
Joe Biden has said explicitly that America will not join the
fighting (in Ukriane) for fear of starting “World War III”.。
◆
Foreign
Policy, 2022-4-26: U.S.
security cooperation is a more powerful demonstration of commitment than
any declaration of intent.
◆
L.A. Times,
2022-4-23: It will never be in America's interests
to join a military confrontation over Taiwan that
could quickly escalate to involve
the use of nuclear weapons. |
PS: What is "Strategic
Ambiguity" ??
It's a
guessing game.
The U.S. has two obligations to Taiwan
under the Taiwan Relations Act: to sell it arms and to maintain the
capacity to protect the island. In
essence, it doesn't have to defend Taiwan,
but it can. csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2021/1214/Time-to-be-clear-on-Taiwan-Strategic-ambiguity-faces-test |
◆
SCMP,
2022-4-11:
Taiwan will have
to rely on itself to defend the island from a mainland
attack, analysts say
◆
FoxNews,
2022-4-4:
"It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when" ◆ Foreign
Policy, 2022-3-31:
Only 2 percent of respondents
(international relations experts at U.S.
universities and colleges) supported direct military action against Russia compared to 18 percent
in a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◆
Wall
street Journal, 2022-3-29:
Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the
kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed
to upgrade Taiwan's military...many
younger Taiwanese dislike conscription
◆
New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the
danger for Taiwan. China has time: Any invasion of
Taiwan could be years away ◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20:
Taiwan hasn't built the kind
of territorial defense force Ukraine is using to great effect right now...over
much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the
opposite direction: It cut the size of its
regular army and reduced the training of its reserves...
it
will take more than five years to get there. ◆
TIME, 2022-3-18: mandatory military service
... is only four months—compared to 18 months in South
Korea, and about two years in Israel and Singapore. “We only had basic training"...most analysts say that the island would not be able to
stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine’s situation has sparked debate
over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid ◆
Japan Times, Bloomberg, 2022-3-20:
Nine in 10 Japanese people are concerned that China may
invade Taiwan
◆
DW, 2022-3-15: Easton: Taiwan's military now lacks manpower and requires
updated and intensified training.
legislator: "we are
far from ready" ◆Washington Post, 2022-3-15: The
war in Ukraine could make China rethink invading Taiwan ◆
Politico, 2022-3-14:
Taiwan's
military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its
government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA
would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s
deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068
billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement
◆ Fox
News, 2022-3-13: China warns of 'worst consequences' for any country that supports Taiwan
militarily ◆
full text
Is Taiwan willing to fight for itself ? |
New
York Times, 2021-8-16: Biden: American troops cannot and should
not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are
not willing to fight for themselves. |
Taiwanese army |
◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over
much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the
opposite direction: It cut the size of its
regular army and reduced the training of its reserves.
◆
Economist, 2022-4-23: The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting
walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”...
◆
Financial Times
(UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these
issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to
sacrifice...
◆
Foreign Policy,
2020-10-19 : Given
these electoral realities,
Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward
military showpieces — while
hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.
however, the United States may not be up to the task.
◆
Economist,
2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to
fight to defend their land. Taiwan's
sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ... |
imported wrong weapons |
◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: It invested
in high-end weapons beloved by military brass, like F-16s and Abrams
tanks, instead of more mundane tools that might deter a shipborne invader:
antiaircraft weapons, anti-ship missiles and
advanced mines.
◆
Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19: Taiwan's advanced aircraft, ships, and
tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that
China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage.
◆
NBC,
2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes.
◆
Economist 2022-4-23: American critics question the billions being spent on expensive
systems, ... many of the high-end weapons will be
quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective.
◆
Taiwan needs lots of asymmetric
mobile defense weapons. |
Taiwan's weapons
|
Taiwan has been developing
some military planes, ships ...
udn.com/news/story/7338/6254658?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
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