|
◆
Latest
news:
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:
Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's
policies are hampering deterrence
;
If Lai Ching-te
(a staunch proponent of the island's
independence) does win, Beijing could move quickly to
invade.
◆
New York Post,
2023-1-14:
the U.S.
needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan,
specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles.
◆The
SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster
a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles
to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general
◆
The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine
is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to erupt，Taiwan,
North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all
potential flashpoints
◆
The Hill, 2022-12-30:
Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese
invasion
◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of
alienating its young people ◆
Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for
seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory
military service from four months to one year ◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2022-12-28: Military conscription is a good start,
but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still
◆
Reuters, 2022-12-28:
China's government
criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as
"cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one
year starting in 2024
◆
France 24, 2022-12-26:
Seventy-one
warplanes deployed by China in war drills
-
the
largest reported incursion to date
◆ Modern War Institute at West
point, 2022-12-19:
Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to
shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been
slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style
resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an
occupation. ◆
full text
|
NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China |
|
WSJ, 2022-12-27 |
a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in
the face of growing
concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between
Washington and Beijing.
wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529 |
|
PBS,
AP,
2022-12-27 |
The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it
underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong
the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however, only 35.6
percent said they would support an extension
pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year |
|
CNN,
2022-12-27 |
Chinese
soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of
the air and the sea...before
they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need
people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters
edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html |
|
Washington Post, 12-27 |
It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with
Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/ |
|
Mainichi
Japan
,
2022-12-28 |
The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
|
|
GT (China), 2022-12-27 |
"a
deplorable decision" made under US
pressure
/
the DPP authorities might
incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in
collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the
mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real
battlefield.
...expecting
that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense
budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military
is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml
12-27 |
◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2022-11-23: ...the persistent fecklessness of
Taiwanese government's defense
policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while
Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist,
2022-11-18:
Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking
down, making war more likely
◆ National Interest, 2022-12-11:
China Isn’t Ready to Invade Taiwan -
two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty
potential ◆ 1945, 2022-12-12:
the likelihood of a Chinese move to
take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable
as it gets.
The reason: in China's
thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from
ever reunifying with China ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese
people seem blissfully oblivious of a
looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford
that luxury ◆
Fox News,
2022-11-4: If China
conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy
◆
SCMP,2022-11-3: China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification,
even if US says so ◆
WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28: U.S. support for Ukraine and other
dynamics have led some to
question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan
◆
CNN, 2022-10-27:
A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable
future
◆
The
Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge
prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk ◆
Newsweek,
2022-10-21: Beijing
has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan
as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the
sensitive geopolitical issue ◆
Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness'
of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade
Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against
Beijing ◆
The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:
recent polling has indicated
over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion
were to occur
◆ New York Times,2022-10-17: China's
leader warns of “perilous, stormy seas”ahead ◆
Reuters,2022-10-17:
Analysis-Xi's new generals face
tough military challenges post-congress; the
conundrum for the PLA is the lack of opera tional
experience ◆ New
York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns against international
'interference' ◆
VOA,2022-10-16:
Despite Tough Words, Japan Might
Not Enter a Taiwan War ◆
Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had
already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to
modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an
alternative to Western democracies. ◆
The SUN (UK),2022-10-16:an
authority on China's military, recently warned the
country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl
Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan.
◆Washington Post, 2022-10-12:
Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan...
Taiwan professor:“Before, leaders talked about
unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's
number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal,
2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait,
given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington
in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been
consistent with this hypothesis ◆
Economist, 2022-10-10: In Washington, there
is talk of intelligence that
the pla has
been told to be in a position
to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake
◆
TIME, 2022-10-5:
Even without a blockade, a
Chinese air and missile campaign alone could defang Taiwan's
military and shut down the country's
economy
◆ NY Times,
2022-10-5: If
China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan,
American
... would offer the least likelihood ...into
direct conflict; Cornell prof.:
The U.S. has to make clear that the U.S. doesn't
have a strategic interest in having Taiwan being permanently separated from
mainland China ◆
full text
|
Chinese Communist Party Congress
|
|
◆
CNBC, 2022-10-18 |
Political watchers say the (CCP
Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by
force |
|
◆
NY Times, 2022-10-16 |
China is still exerting what Xi
also uses in the speech —
‘strategic patience' |
|
◆
LA Times, 2022-10-16 |
Chinese Communist Party Congress affords another step for Xi
Jinping's consolidation of power |
|
◆
full text |
◆
Forbes, 2022-10-3:
Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not
'Imminent';
“What we do see is China moving to
establish what we would call a new normal".◆
FoxNews, 2022-10-2: soon-to-be Secretary-General of ASEAN:
China 'would not' invade Taiwan if Beijing believes it owns the island
◆ Chicago Tribune,
2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's
unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that
◆
Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19:
China Is Capable of Blockading
Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander
Says ◆ CBS News,2022-9-18:
Biden tells <60 Minutes>
U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says
this is not official U.S. policy ◆The Hill, 2022-9-15:
The next step would be to enforce
a quarantine of the island to undermine Taiwan's
sovereignty and slowly strangle their economy until an agreement is reached. ◆
Foreign Affairs, 2022-9-14:
(US)
military's most promising capabilities to counter
China will not be ready until the 2030s...This
creates a window of vulnerability for Taiwan, most likely between 2024 and 2027
◆
full text
|
No guarantee
that
U.S. military
will hold the same view as Biden
to defend Taiwan |
♣ Foreign
Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2:
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse
President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would
defend Taiwan
politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
♣
The Hill, 2022-10-3:
US defense chief sidesteps
questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan
news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html |
♣
VICE, 2022-9-28:
no guarantee that the next U.S.
president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a
formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an
attack by the PLA
vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts |
◆
Diplomat, 2022-9-13: the most
fundamental threat Taiwan faces is to its economy and its energy system
(imports nearly all of its energy)
◆
LA Times, 2022-9-11:
China's leaders know their power is about to diminish,
and that will make them more likely to take risks in the short run — to invade
Taiwan, for example
◆
full text
|
Defending Taiwan by Taiwanese ??
some human factors ~ |
|
President Tsai I. W. |
youngsters |
the public |
♣
VICE, 2022-9-28: president's prescriptions have been piecemeal, and
there is no national plan to overhaul the military. (developing
asymmetric warfare capabilities as US experts advise)
♣
Roll Call, 2022-9-28: ...overhaul its military reservist program
— our general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to
50 and their children, will fight against that policy... “It's hard for
the ruling party to do it !" Younger voters are a critical base of
support for president Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party.
♣
New York Times, 2022-6-19:
politicians have
electoral considerations ( military
conscription reform)
♣
United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6: The policy of
lengthening mandatory military
service
won't be decided until end of 2022 , obviously the admin. is with an eye
to presidential election.
udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2 |
♣
Roll Call, 2022-9-28: Most people do not want to
join the military... The March opinion poll : lower levels of support
(56 percent) among the 20-24 age group for lengthening Taiwan's
mandatory military service to one year.
♣
China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of
Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service
to one year. World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are
willing to be on the battlefield.
chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv
PS:
By law, all able-bodied men in South Korea must serve 18-21
months in
the military under a conscription system; In Israel -
men 32 months and women 24 months, minimum. |
♣
axios,2022-9-27:
...the common belief in Taiwan that if China were to invade, Taiwan
would have no choice but to surrender immediately.
♣
Economist,
2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to
fight to defend their land. Taiwan's
sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...
♣
Global Times,
2022-10-10:
a poll shows that only 41.4 percent gave a
definite "yes" to the determination to sacrifice themselves to defend
the island, according to Taiwan-based media
globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276853.shtml
♣
Washington Examiner,
2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that
you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a
different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that
eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese
are currently taking those steps
♣
Brookings, 2021-1-22:
Only 23% thought that democracy was more important than economic
development. 16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than
reducing economic inequality.
♣
United Daily (Taiwan,
聯合報), 2022-10-10:
The great majority of polls show Taiwanese are not willing to fight for
"Taiwan independence". udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2
|
☉ S. Korean presidential candidates have never tried to win the election
by shortening mandatory military service (their service days is about 5
times of Taiwan's), but Taiwan's politicians do ! for
instance, a ruling party's law-maker Tsai argues what's the reason to
lengthen
military service !?
(see
udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
2022-10-6 )
☉
United
Daily,2022-10-10: The Defense chief told the US that the
mandatory military service can be lengthen up to 2~3 years, but
President Tsai decide it'll be just 1 year at present for
electoral considerations.(and
not to declare until end of election)
brief udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2
陳一新榮譽教授 |
◆ Washington
Examiner, 2022-9-12:Xi
Jinping would
invade Taiwan if
authorities in Taipei stop referring to their government as the Republic of
China
◆ The
Global and Mail (Canada), 2022-9-10:
Taiwan's long-term survival prospects
are much worse than Ukraine's...
it would probably take Taiwan five years of defence spending at 5 per
cent of GDP, ... a return to several years of
conscription and large active reserves in the Israeli model
◆ Foreign
Policy,2022-9-8: strategic priorities, budgets, and acquisition
limitations, are preventing Taipei from laying in the critical war-reserve
materiel it would need to against PLA ◆ War on the Rocks,
2022-9-7: In Taiwan, many
young citizens concluded that conscription
was a waste of time and a tedious chore....those
with political connections seek to be posted in cities rather than at the border
or in the field. ◆
Bloomberg , 2022-9-7: China Invading Taiwan
Is ‘Distinct Threat’◆
Weekend Australian , 2022-9-7: Best way to avoid war is to arm Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary
that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆
Washington Examiner, 2022-9-6: Taiwan sees Bidens political-fears weakening us-strategy to counter china
◆
full text
 (中文版 Chinese)
|
Biden :
"U.S. forces, U.S. men and women
would defend Taiwan"
|
Lowy Institute
(Australia), 2022-9-27 |
brutal fact – that as China has
grown stronger, the cost to America of defending Taiwan has
grown to far outweigh the imperatives for it to do so
lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/taiwan-biden-risks-talking-himself-war-he-cannot-win |
|
CNN
(US), 2022-9-20 |
looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...
Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave
in a real crisis.
edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html
|
Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-20 |
wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously,
two
key concerns here.
(1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in
face of the existential threat it faces.
(2)
It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight
and die for your country. It's a different thing to take
painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard
truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those
steps
msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw |
|
Chicago Tribune,
2022-9-23 |
At what cost to US national interests?
if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's
unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that
chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html |
|
The Guardian, 2022-9-21 |
the president's
remarks are provocative to Beijing without providing security to
Taiwan or the US, Biden is
conveying anxiety rather than confidence
...
theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/21/biden-taiwan-comments-china-war-independence |
|
Politico,
2022-9-19 |
The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to
pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said.
politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658
|
|
Washington Post, 2022-9-19 |
Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so
much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors
with a stronger set of legislative instructions
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/ |
|
|
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 |
“Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's
sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence”
Taiwan's leaders could
move closer to independence — U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea will
almost certainly be made more uneasy... risks
pulling them into a war
msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX |
|
Japan Times (Japan),
2022-9-20 |
Cornell prof. called
Biden's remarks “dangerous",
this new combo (a pledge to send troops
+ decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional
commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check
japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/ |
|
DW
(Germany), 2022-9-19 |
scholars: "it
can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the
capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is
becoming more strategic and less ambiguous."
dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248 |
|
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 |
Alors que l’occupant de la Maison
Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir,
la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à
ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .
lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html |
|
France
24 (France), 2022-9-19 |
most explicit statement so far on the issue,
something sure to anger Beijing.。Biden's
Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to
"strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant
downsides" to such an approach”msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO |
|
Daily
Express (UK), 2022-9-19 |
Bonnie Glaser:
"
if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs
the "capability" to back them up,
If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should
make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so",
“"Rhetorical support
that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen
deterrence"
express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont |
|
Bloomberg
(US), 2022-9-19 |
Expert Bonnie Glaser:
“China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend
Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans”,
Prof. Lev Nachman:
“The
worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment
rather than reduce it.。”
Bloomberg msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55 |
|
Global Times (Chn), 2022-2-25 |
Washington
claimed it "stands with Ukraine," and repeatedly promised it would
protect Ukraine at critical junctures. But now the one that suffers is
still Kiev. Hasn't the world seen enough of the US breaking its
promises? globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253176.shtml |
|
Modern Diplomacy.eu, 2022-2-25 |
Under the Budapest Memorandum, the
US and UK promised to ensure Ukraine's security, geographical integrity
and sovereignty, but, the world has seen that both the US and UK have
not fulfilled their promise.
moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/25/ukraine-is-betrayed-by-the-us-and-uk/ |
|
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 |
Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet / The
implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the
hypothetical, but it’s a majorly consequential hypothetical that now
includes a firm commitment — whether that firm commitment is technically
official policy or not
washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/ |
|
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 |
his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe
suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic
ambiguity" policy ...not
only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and
various political forces on Capitol Hill. China clearly knows that
the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves
further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted
against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence
behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic
countermeasures for them, Xin said.
globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml
|
The Conversation
(Australia),
2022-9-20 |
so does this support mean economic
aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are
left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any
China-Taiwan conflict.
news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html |
|
|
|
Can
"silicon shield" protect
Taiwan? |
|
TIME, 2022-10-5 |
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently
argued... “‘silicon shield’
that allows Taiwan to protect itself....” That's
a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation... |
|
New York Times,
2022-9-9 |
Taiwan is
protected by something far more subtle —The
"silicon shield"...If
it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from
Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail |
|
New York Times,
2022-8-29 |
Analysts debate how much
protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives
it. Some argue that calculations over
supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war. |
|
National
Interest,
2022-5-15 |
Taiwan's
“silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's
defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is
an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan,
and fails to deter China |
|
VOA News,
2021-5-10 |
Song Hong, assistant general director at the
Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences shrugged off the
geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China
views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from
its goals by U.S. action |
|
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 |
Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a
guaranteed security blanket.
|
|
Fox News,
2022-8-26 |
Why would the U.S.
fight China over Taiwan,
Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor
production is the glue |
|
New York Times,
2022-1-25 |
75
percent of production takes place in East Asia.
Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in
Taiwan...China
could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to
seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden
promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the
United States.
nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html |
|
CBS
News, 2022-9-25 |
Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing
so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United
States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful
of places, and Taiwan produces most of
them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be
devastating." |
|
Taiwan dominates
the global production of computer chips /
◆
BBC, 2022-1-12,
source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021 |
|
Taiwan |
S. Korea |
China |
Other |
|
65% |
18% |
5% |
12% |
|
news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html |
| |
|
| |
|
◆ The Hill, 2022-9-6:
none of the
three governments that could begin a war over Taiwan — those in Washington,
Beijing and Taipei — should see war as in its interest...Taiwan will be
extremely hard for us to defend ◆ abc news, 2022-9-5: Military reserves, Civil Defense worry Taiwan as China looms ◆
Washington Examiner, 2022-9-5: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid
'challenges from within' ◆Daily
Express (UK), 2022-8-29:
WW3 looming as 'no good options' remain in
'dangerous' China-US conflict over Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-25:
China could try to impose a blockade
to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action
◆ NY Times, 2022-8-21:
critics argued the tensions over
Taiwan showed that Washington
needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆
War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan
en route to targets east of the main island
◆
Economist, 2022-8-11:
America has changed,...it
began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is
little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today...
Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a
war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend
itself ◆
NY Times, 2022-8-11:
Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and
morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's
forces are poorly equipped and understaffed
◆
Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island
by force, not through peaceful reunification ◆
Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep
Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect.
◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has
allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity
unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend
Taiwan. ◆
BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan
- have become "acceptable" - because they have
happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this
becomes the new standard ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-8:
China's
drills near Taiwan is a sign that
Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing
its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its
airspace and waters ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-7:
China’s
leader has made it clearer than any of his predecessors that he sees
unifying Taiwan with China to be a
primary goal of his rule
◆ The Hill, 2022-8-6: Taiwan...too economically dependent on China to
withstand an economic cold war with Beijing. ◆
full text
|
Washington Post,
2022-8-17: if there's
a crisis on Taiwan, Americans say~
(msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-americans-think-about-china-and-taiwan/ar-AA10L80C) |
|
65 percent |
support sending additional arms and military
equipment to Taiwan |
|
62 percent |
support having the U.S. Navy prevent China from
imposing a blockade around Taiwan |
|
only 40 percent |
favor sending U.S. troops to help the Taiwanese
government defend itself. |
|
2021 Chicago Council Survey |
46 percent of Americans were willing to explicitly
commit to defend Taiwan from attack. |
|
Taiwan vs. US |
|
Taiwan VS. US's
"porcupine" weapons |
The
US disagrees Taiwan's
requests for big-ticket weapons |
|
◆ Financial Times, 2022-8-19:
Intensified
military pressure from China has reinforced Taiwan's
desire to acquire large weapons platforms such as warships and
fighters...widens
gulf on procurement policy between Taipei and its main arms
supplier
ft.com/content/0d492ad7-9346-4c9e-b186-834c6fc75e85
◆ Economist,
2022-5-10:These flashier purchases are politically
popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military
leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone”
attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault
has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have
increased every year
◆WEEK
(UK), 2022-5-12:
Taiwan
plans to
“throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a
Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”
◆
United
Daily (Taiwan), 2022-5-19
:
Can the
guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block
the Russian main force in Ukraine?
◆ United
Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6
:
Taiwan
military was forced to accept the concept of "asymmetric war",
in last year $80 billions Harpoon Coastal Defense Missile systems
were forcibly sent to Taiwan ... but missiles are not good for
China's gray-zone war at present.
udn.com/news/story/11091/6665520?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
◆
The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26
:
Urban
guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large
number of civilian casualties。
◆
Foreign Policy,
2020-8-20 :
“Their underlying thinking is that PLA
has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway...
Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being
tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that
Americans come to our rescue
◆ Financial
Times,
2022-5-17:
Washington was right to
push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion,
but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.
|
◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: flashy
F-16 sales do little to defend Taiwan from China's
missile force. warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis-is-just-starting/
◆ Financial Times, 2022-8-19:Washington
is trying to force Taipei to prioritise “asymmetric” weapons — systems
that exploit an adversary’s weakness instead of trying to match its
strengths.
◆ Business Insider, 2022-8-21:
expensive equipment such as fighter jets, helicopters, and tanks to
prepare against a possible Chinese invasion, defense experts say these
would easily be destroyed by an attacker, according to the Journal's
report.
businessinsider.com/taiwan-learns-ukraine-porcupine-strategy-defend-against-china-2022-8
◆ New York Times,
2022-5-7: US
presses Taiwan to buy
missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited
to Win Against China); But some Taiwanese
defense officials are resistant.
◆
FoxNews,
2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against
Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
◆
Politico,
2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests
for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive
items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out
assault from the mainland.
◆
Economist, 2022-5-10:
expensive conventional
equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines —
are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile —
a "porcupine"
strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
◆
Politico,
2022-5-19:
the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has
taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the
administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside
their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
◆
WSJ
,
2022-5-8:
F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
◆
National Interest, 2022-5-15:
One important task has been to tailor the
provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s
military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and
Seahawk helicopters.
◆ Foreign Policy
, 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's
leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
◆
Diplomat, 10-5-2020:
Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance
armed drones...
|
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-8-5: Xi Jinping appears to
be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan...
it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by
comparison ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3:
failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be
perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a
quarter century ago. ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-2:
China is preparing a hostile
response of some sort...This is an exceptionally
dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine
◆ New York Times, 2022-7-26:
The risks to Taiwan from Chinese aggression have
gained urgency since Russia's attacks on Ukraine...
a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan
would be difficult for China to pull off in the near term. Instead, it could
do so piecemeal ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-25:
Chinese leaders might try
to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half —
perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait
◆The Hill , 2022-7-26:
The longer the Biden administration
continues delaying and stinting its support for Ukraine without enabling
Kyiv to halt and reverse Russia's invasion, the
more precarious both Ukraine's and Taiwan's
positions become
◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept
China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan — possibly by force — is
running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23:
Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s
effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into
Taiwan ◆ le Monde (France), 2022-7-21:
China
appears determined on using force in Taiwan
◆
full text
|
Contrast
Taiwan Strait Crisis in
1996 and 2022
|
|
◆
New York Times, 2022-8-5 |
the U.S. military had
ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan to
“remain on station” in the
region but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait.，... during
a crisis in 1996, when President Bill Clinton moved
aircraft carriers closer to the strait.
(PS:
and conducted large scale drills
zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/台灣海峽飛彈危機
)
nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-drills.html
|
|
◆
New York Times, 2022-8-4 |
... failing to move more naval
forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi
as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century
ago. |
|
◆
United Daily (Taiwan) , 2022-8-5 |
The drill has been conducted under US tacit permission,
which
shakes the policy of peaceful
resolution...
udn.com/news/story/11091/6515486?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2 |
|
◆ USA Today, 2022-8-6 |
National Security Council:U.S.
would postpone intercontinental ballistic missile test scheduled...
reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception
news.yahoo.com/china-halts-climate-military-ties-152347684.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
|
◆ Global Times
(China), 2022-8-5 |
the US Navy's Ronald Reagan carrier strike group retreated
hundreds of kilometers eastward overnight, after the PLA
announced live-fire exercise zones east of the island。 |
|
China's
Missiles over Taiwan
in 2022-8-5 |
|
◆
CNN, 2022-8-4 |
missiles flying over the island marked a significant escalation |
|
◆
New York Times, 2022-8-3 |
China's
CCTV stated that one of the missiles flew over
Taiwan, marking another escalation of Chinese pressure on the
island and risking serious miscalculation. |
|
◆
New York Times, 2022-8-25 |
sending at least four
high over the island itself, according to Japan |
|
◆
War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22 |
Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan
en route to targets east of the main island |
|
◆
Raw Story, 2022-8-24
|
◆
N.Y. Times, 2022-8-25
|
|
Congressman
Beyer (D-VA)
said. ... now it's every hour there's a Chinese
military plane flying overhead of Taipei |
The exercises...China
did not roll out its most
advanced weaponry. It flew planes near Taiwan, not over it. |
|
China's
"the largest and
most sophisticated military exercises it has ever conducted"
(Economist, 2022-8-10)
WHY ??
|
|
NY Times, 2022-8-25 |
They were meant to intimidate Taiwan and the United States
nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/25/world/asia/china-taiwan-conflict-blockade.html |
|
NY Times, 2022-8-4 |
Stanford scholar:
“Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test
their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary
for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.”
nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-exercises.html |
|
Business Insider,
2022-8-5 |
"a show of
force to respond to Pelosi's visit" and "to exhibit [China's]
displeasure" and "presumably to deter the US or other countries
from undertaking visits like this
..." "readiness to
respond to Taiwan provocations"
news.yahoo.com/chinas-missile-launches-military-drills-211102958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
|
AFP (France),
2022-8-6 |
a former CIA Asia
analyst:
main purpose
with its military exercises was to change that status quo.，"The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker's
visit."
American University Professor:
Beijing's message was
meant to signal that China can alter the power balance in the
region if it chooses. "The Chinese
seriously believe that the United States has not been respecting
their interests on the Taiwan issue"
news.yahoo.com/us-china-relations-risk-long-215317757.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
|
|
The Times
(UK), 2022-8-6 |
Chinese jets menace Taiwan in an end to diplomacy |
|
BBC, 2022-8-9 |
this may possibly intimidate South East
Asian neighbours which have rival claims to the South China Sea
bbc.com/news/62460809 |
|
NY Times, 2022-8-8 |
not only to intimidate Taiwan and the
United States, but also to appease a domestic audience that had
seemed disappointed by what it perceived as an insufficiently
bellicose posture. cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220808/china-exercises-taiwan/zh-hant/dual/ |
|
Global Times
(Chn), 2022-8-5 |
Some Taiwan-based media hyped that
the mainland's economic punishment could antagonize the public...
"If the mainland opts for
economic sanctions, it may terminate the Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement (ECFA)"...
Taiwan had a trade surplus of more than $170 billion with the Chinese mainland
in 2021.
globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272245.shtml |
|
Military Balance across the
Taiwan Strait, 2022 / Economist, 2022-8-11 |
| |
China |
Taiwan |
|
Personnel |
2,035,000 |
169,000 |
|
Reserves |
510,000 |
1,657,000 |
|
Main battle tanks |
5,400 |
750 |
|
Sub |
65 |
4 |
|
Waships |
86 |
26 |
|
Attack helicopters |
308 |
96 |
|
Other combat-capable aircraft |
2,475 |
474 |
|
Defense spending, $bn |
270.0 |
12.1 |
|
economist.com/china/2022/08/11/how-the-crisis-over-taiwan-will-change-us-china-relations |
|
Chinese and Taiwanese armed forces / Daily
Express, 2022-8-13 |
| |
China |
Taiwan |
|
Active duty personnel |
2,035,000 |
169,000 |
|
Ground Force |
965,000 |
94,000 |
|
Navy |
260,000 |
40,000 |
|
Air Force |
395,000 |
35,000 |
|
Reserves |
510,000 |
1,650,000 |
|
Tanks |
5,400 |
650 |
|
Aircrafts |
3,200+ |
500 |
|
sub |
59 |
4 |
|
Naval ships |
86 |
26 |
|
Artillery |
9,800 |
2,093 |
|
Strategic missile Forces |
120,000 |
0 |
|
Strategic Support Force |
145,000 |
0 |
|
Other Forces |
150,000 |
0 |
|
express.co.uk/news/science/1654612/china-news-putin-squeeze-taiwan-cripple-world-key-metals-ban-stainless-steel-manufacturing
source: The Military Balance, 2022 IISS |
|
WHY?
Taiwanese people
"don't worry"
China's
"the
largest and most sophisticated military exercises" circling Taiwan
island ??
|
|
nDaily
Express, 2022-8-16:
Taiwan's
representative to Germany has warned of the risk of an impending
attack by China on
Taiwan...
"They're going to attack us."
nLibre
(Japan), UDN, 2022-8-16:
Taiwanese president Tsai I W:
The situation in
Taiwan Strait is very tense. and Taiwan is facing huge
challenges.
nCNN, 2022-8-8:
Taiwan's foreign minister says
: "I
worry that China may really
launch a war against Taiwan,";
But the
mood in Taiwan
remained calm,
with life carrying on as usual with
packed restaurants
and crowded public transport. Independent
(2022-8-16) reports Taiwan's poll:
45 % said that they were not
afraid at all and 33 % said they were not very afraid
|
♣
NBC,
2022-8-10:
nbcnews.com/news/world/is-taiwan-worried-china-threat-invasion-pelosi-visit-rcna41964
A:
many residents say they are used to
intimidation by Beijing ..."
I don't think China will attack because our rockets can also
reach Beijing and Shanghai"
;
Experts:
many residents in Ukraine
reacted
with disbelief to
Russia's long-signaled invasion...whether
Taiwan is being too complacent.?
people in Taiwan need to take this more seriously, they don't
fully appreciate the circumstance they're in,”...
♣
New York Times,
2022-8-9:
many watching from outside
Taiwan seemed to expect Taiwanese to be “hysterically”
stockpiling food and crafting evacuation plans
... a Taiwanese girl says: "Taiwanese people appearing
calm in the face of rising tension is not due to ignorance or
naïveté, but because this is accepted — even
internalized — as a part of being Taiwanese”.
♣
United Daily (Taiwan )
,
2022-8-11:
A poll showed
that about 60% of the respondents were not worried about further
military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan,
which surprised foreign media, Some posts on the net
reflect what Taiwanese people's thought, "because China PLA
won't attack us", " we are used to it" ," we have been
intimidated two or three times per year" ... It appears too many
intimidations made our people NUMB !
|
|
Pelosi
visiting Taiwan
CNN,2022-7-29:
potentially triggering the worst cross-strait crisis in decades |
|
|
NY Times, 2022-7-28 |
Nancy Pelosi's Trip to
Taiwan Is Too Dangerous!
The United States and China are on a collision course in
the Taiwan Strait
nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html
|
|
Global
Times(China), 2022-7-28 |
China's
defense ministry issues fresh, rare warning:
The US should not underestimate the crisis and possible disastrous
results it will bring to the Taiwan Straits if Pelosi ultimately makes
the trip...
if the US does not pull back but keeps challenging the guardrail, the
price will be beyond US capabilities to pay"...
The
rare expressions "yanzhen yidai"
(嚴陣以待),
PLA
"will not sit idly by"
(不會坐視)
were used (in Korea war and Vietnam war).“
-
China
will not sit idly by if US troops crossed the 38th parallel.
globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271693.shtml |
|
中囯
Global Times, 2022-7-28 |
Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will
be clear-eyed about this," Xi said via telephone,...
globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271696.shtml |
|
GT (China),
2022-7-29 |
it is time for Washington to slam on the brake of its radical moves on
the Taiwan question! |
|
NPR,
2022-7-28 |
President Biden looks to
ease tensions with Xi over Taiwan
npr.org/2022/07/28/1114314905/biden-and-chinas-xi-discuss-tensions-over-taiwan |
|
Reuters (UK),
2022-7-29 |
"So far, there are few indications
in Chinese official statements, nor online or domestic media, which
would suggest that China is considering more serious military action at
this time, although that could change"
news.yahoo.com/analysis-despite-xis-fire-call-003612894.html |
|
Global Times(China), 2022-8-3 |
It looks like the visit helped the US "score a win," just
for now, but in the long run, it will lose more advantages. |
◆
DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns
Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage
China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the
Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to
invade Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-20:
CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion
◆
Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20:
Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military
reforms◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-7:
Chinese diplomat says 'reunification' with Taiwan near
◆
full text
◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-3:
these steps
(asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to
repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory
military service ... spend
more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are
comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆VOA, 2022-6-30: US Believes China Still Hoping to Take
Taiwan Without Force ◆ Axios,2022-6-28:
Taiwan focuses on power projection instead of
defense, and lacks a
well-developed security studies academic community... distrust in
Taiwan between politicians and the military lingers ◆
EurAsian
Times,
2022-6-27:
Bonnie Glaser told Politico:
the active-duty military is
not willing to work with the reserve force, which is seen as insufficiently
trained; there isn’t much enthusiasm among the
civilians to work with the military or the military to work with civilians
◆
N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19:Taiwan
is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. Extending
military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan’s defenses are, by many
accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...
Taiwan military leaders
argue that smaller weapons are not useful for standing up to China in visible
ways. Long-range missiles capable of striking
the mainland could deter Beijing ...Should China
invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly
crumble unless the United States and its allies help. ◆
Guardian,
2022-6-15: Tensions heighten in Taiwan Strait as China acts to extend
military operations ◆ Newsweek,
2022-6-15: China Warns of Taiwan Demise After Official Claims Missiles
Can Hit Beijing ◆ Taipei Times,
2022-6-11:A
survey conducted by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo
showed that 73 percent of respondents believe China might take military action
against Taiwan. ◆ AFP, France24,
2022-6-10: China
will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says;
With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japanese Prime
Minister issued a stark warning at the summit: "Ukraine today may be East Asia
tomorrow". ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry
that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go
to war over Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price...China
is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe"
bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq.
◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-6-1:
Washington fears a possible Chinese invasion by 2027. All for
one: U.S. enlists its Asian allies in defense of Taiwan
◆ Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30:
Putin is
winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much
deadlier ◆ NY Times,
2022-5-27:
A 2018
congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive
military defeat” in a war over Taiwan,
citing China’s increasingly advanced capabilities and myriad U.S. logistical
difficulties
◆ NY Times,
2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine
line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of
China to order an attack on Taiwan ◆ NY Times,
2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would
fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's
defense budget... remains scandalously low ◆
Financial
Times (UK), 2022-5-17: US
wanted Taiwan to focus on capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, air and
missile defences, command and communications, intelligence surveillance and
reconnaissance, and early- warning systems... Taipei
also wants to guard against, such as Chinese incursions into its air defence
identification zone or a sea blockade
◆
full text
|
US military would defend Taiwan
by ‘intervening
militarily’
? |
◆ New
York Times, 2022-5-23: Biden Says
U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded,
dispensing with the “strategic
ambiguity” traditionally favored by American presidents
...The White House quickly tried to deny ...,
Mr. Biden’s unscripted declaration put Japan in a
complicated position. 。nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-defense.html
◆
Guardian, 2022-5-23:
Biden's
Taiwan vow creates confusion not clarity – and raises China tensions
theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/23/biden-taiwan-china-strategic-ambiguity-us-foreign-policy
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-23:
“We agree with the One China policy and all the
attendant agreements we made. But the idea that it can be taken by
force, just taken by force, would just not be appropriate,” Mr. Biden
said.。wsj.com/articles/biden-says-u-s-would-intervene-militarily-if-china-invaded-taiwan-11653286228
◆ New
York Post, 2022-5-23:White House
walks back Biden Taiwan defense claim for third time in 9 months
nypost.com/2022/05/23/white-house-walks-back-biden-taiwan-defense-claim-again/
◆
Politico, 2022-5-23:The president's
“strategic ambiguity” backtrack may hasten Taiwan Strait conflict,
observers say
◆
Economist, 2022-5-23: the gap
between presidential statements and official policy is giving rise to a
new form of ambiguity—strategic perhaps; or maybe simply incoherent
economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/05/23/what-is-americas-policy-of-strategic-ambiguity-over-taiwan
◆
BBC, 2022-5-23:Biden vows to defend
Taiwan in apparent US policy shift
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TIME, 2022-5-23:president Biden's
Vow To Defend Taiwan Is Bold but Incredibly Risky
◆
Bloomberg, 2022-5-23:Biden Misspeaks
on Taiwan, Says US Military Would Intervene
◆ AFP, CBS News, 2022-5-23:
President Joe Biden said Monday the U.S. would
intervene militarily if China were
to invade Taiwan, in one of the most forceful and overt statements of
American government support for Taiwan in decades.
。Beijing was quick to respond,
... "No one should underestimate the firm resolve, staunch will and
strong ability of the Chinese people in defending national sovereignty
and territorial integrity" .
cbsnews.com/news/biden-china-taiwan-us-military-recession-monkeypox/
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Global Times, 2022-5-23: Biden's
remarks on ‘intervening militarily’ in Taiwan question not gaffe but
signals hollowing out one-China policy......"Sending
troops is military interference, offering weapons and military
intelligence and conducting rescue can also be interpreted as
'intervening militarily'... the US... will
have no time and no willingness to come to Taiwan's rescue.
◆ New
York Times, 2022-5-24: Asked
if he would send in troops if China attacked Taiwan, Biden said, “The
policy has not changed at all.”
|
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-10:
James Anderson:
The
PRC roughly has that capability to forcibly retake the island sooner than 2027
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4:
Since the Chinese economy
is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be
virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's
lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous.
◆
Washington Post, 2022-5-4:
China insists... has no plans to attack the island it
claims as its own. ◆
Guardian, 2022-4-24: ...
waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking
into conflict may
well be growing
◆ Economist, 2022-4-20:
the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the
need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days;
Taiwan can learn ...Fighting
spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe
◆
Bloomberg, 2022-4-21:
Putin's
Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming
force
◆ Taipei Times, 2022-4-25:
Richard D. Fisher, Jr.:
Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new
very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance
◆
Wall
street Journal, 2022-4-18:
Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's
reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut
◆
Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house
nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil - to
deter America from intervening in conflict
over Taiwan
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full text
|
" Strategic
Clarity" - US defend Taiwan |
"Strategic
Ambiguity" |
◆
Independent,
2022-4-19:
Japanese former PM
Abe Shinzo (安倍):China
are permanent, veto-wielding members of the United Nations Security
Council, the UN’s mediation function cannot be relied upon for
conflicts in which they are involved... Ukraine is an independent state
beyond any doubt, Taiwan is not....Unlike in
Ukraine, Chinese leaders could claim that any invasion of Taiwan
that China launches is necessary to suppress anti-government
activities in one of its own regions, and that such acts therefore
would not violate international law...The time has come for the US
to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted
Chinese invasion.
◆
Japan
Times,
2022-4-19:
U.S. 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan
must end!
US policy of ambiguity
toward Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by
encouraging China to underestimate U.S. resolve...
|
◆
The
Guardian,
2022-4-24: a switch
from “strategic ambiguity” to clarity ...
would prompt a major reaction from Beijing and might
not enhance deterrence。
◆
Economist,
2022-4-23: Promising
to fight for Taiwan, as some advocate, would do little to deter
China, which already assumes America will do so. And such a promise
would, at the very least, cause a diplomatic crisis...President
Joe Biden has said explicitly that America will not join the
fighting (in Ukriane) for fear of starting “World War III”.。
◆
Foreign
Policy, 2022-4-26: U.S.
security cooperation is a more powerful demonstration of commitment than
any declaration of intent.
◆
L.A. Times,
2022-4-23: It will never be in America's interests
to join a military confrontation over Taiwan that
could quickly escalate to involve
the use of nuclear weapons. |
PS: What is "Strategic
Ambiguity" ??
It's a
guessing game.
The U.S. has two obligations to Taiwan
under the Taiwan Relations Act: to sell it arms and to maintain the
capacity to protect the island. In
essence, it doesn't have to defend Taiwan,
but it can. csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2021/1214/Time-to-be-clear-on-Taiwan-Strategic-ambiguity-faces-test |
◆
SCMP,
2022-4-11:
Taiwan will have
to rely on itself to defend the island from a mainland
attack, analysts say
◆
FoxNews,
2022-4-4:
"It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when" ◆ Foreign
Policy, 2022-3-31:
Only 2 percent of respondents
(international relations experts at U.S.
universities and colleges) supported direct military action against Russia compared to 18 percent
in a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◆
Wall
street Journal, 2022-3-29:
Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the
kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed
to upgrade Taiwan's military...many
younger Taiwanese dislike conscription
◆
New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the
danger for Taiwan. China has time: Any invasion of
Taiwan could be years away ◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20:
Taiwan hasn't built the kind
of territorial defense force Ukraine is using to great effect right now...over
much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the
opposite direction: It cut the size of its
regular army and reduced the training of its reserves...
it
will take more than five years to get there. ◆
TIME, 2022-3-18: mandatory military service
... is only four months—compared to 18 months in South
Korea, and about two years in Israel and Singapore. “We only had basic training"...most analysts say that the island would not be able to
stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine’s situation has sparked debate
over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid ◆
Japan Times, Bloomberg, 2022-3-20:
Nine in 10 Japanese people are concerned that China may
invade Taiwan
◆
DW, 2022-3-15: Easton: Taiwan's military now lacks manpower and requires
updated and intensified training.
legislator: "we are
far from ready" ◆Washington Post, 2022-3-15: The
war in Ukraine could make China rethink invading Taiwan ◆
Politico, 2022-3-14:
Taiwan's
military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its
government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA
would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s
deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068
billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement
◆ Fox
News, 2022-3-13: China warns of 'worst consequences' for any country that supports Taiwan
militarily ◆
full text
|
Is Taiwan willing to fight for itself ? |
|
New
York Times, 2021-8-16: Biden: American troops cannot and should
not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are
not willing to fight for themselves. |
|
Taiwanese army |
◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over
much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the
opposite direction: It cut the size of its
regular army and reduced the training of its reserves.
◆
Economist, 2022-4-23: The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting
walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”...
◆
Financial Times
(UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these
issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to
sacrifice...
◆
Foreign Policy,
2020-10-19 : Given
these electoral realities,
Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward
military showpieces — while
hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.
however, the United States may not be up to the task.
◆
Economist,
2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to
fight to defend their land. Taiwan's
sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ... |
|
imported wrong weapons |
◆
L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: It invested
in high-end weapons beloved by military brass, like F-16s and Abrams
tanks, instead of more mundane tools that might deter a shipborne invader:
antiaircraft weapons, anti-ship missiles and
advanced mines.
◆
Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19: Taiwan's advanced aircraft, ships, and
tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that
China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage.
◆
NBC,
2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes.
◆
Economist 2022-4-23: American critics question the billions being spent on expensive
systems, ... many of the high-end weapons will be
quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective.
◆
Taiwan needs lots of asymmetric
mobile defense weapons. |
Taiwan's weapons
|
Taiwan has been developing
some military planes, ships ...
udn.com/news/story/7338/6254658?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
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