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Brief Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. However, Trump has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China. Extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.
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Brief Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. However, Trump has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China. Extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.
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military power - China vs. Taiwan
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| ◆ Economist, 2025-5-1 | Some observers see “flashing warning lights” that China is preparing to bring about “reunification” by force. Others reckon Xi Jinping will wait to reap the benefits of Donald Trump's wrecking-ball approach to alliances. |
| ◆ New York Post, 2025-4-10 | Beijing insists will be annexed in the coming years. China acknowledges its role in years of cyberattacks against US over support of Taiwan. |
| ◆ Fox News, 2025-4-11 | commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said "With military pressure against Taiwan increasing by 300%, China's increasingly aggressive actions near Taiwan are not just exercises, they are rehearsals." |
| ◆ Newsweek, 2025-4-8 | three likely Chinese actions in The Federalist: a full-scale blockade to pressure Taiwan economically; a lightning strike to achieve a fait accompli before Washington can respond; or a wider regional attack involving U.S. bases in Guam, Japan, or the Philippines. China is engaged in the largest military buildup in modern times, focusing on sea power, amphibious assault capabilities, long-range missiles, and nuclear weapons |
| ◆ Washington Examiner, 2025-4-10 | Should China try to take Taiwan militarily, it would result in a 25% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction in Asia and it would have a “knock on effect of 10 to 12% GDP reduction in the United States of America. The unemployment rate in the U.S. would spike “7-10 points above base and likely 500,000 excess deaths of despair above base as well,” |
| ◆ WSWS.org, 2025-4-11 | The US military presence in East Asia is unlikely to successfully defend Taiwan, and the cost of conflicts with China is prohibitively expensive. Therefore, the US is more or less prepared to “forsake Taiwan, and to remove it from the first island chain.” |
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| ◆ PBS, 2025-4-7 | Taiwan's financial systems, energy and communications are vulnerable to Chinese blockade and cyberattack, and critics worry Taiwan isn't doing enough to prepare for social and economic disruption. On paper, Taiwan's reserves appear large. But these men say military training is insufficient, Many young people today are reluctant to join the armed forces. There's also a general lack of awareness among civilians about the importance of national defense. |
| ◆ PBS, 2025-4-3 | Privately, Taiwanese officials admit they're not ready for the Chinese army. Taiwan needs lots more cheap drones, with technology to repel jamming, secure satellite communications |
| ◆ Fox News, 2025-3-2 | most Taiwanese aren't willing to make the sacrifices required for victory in war. Migrant workers serving as essentially mercenaries would only highlight how few of our citizens are willing to fight . Taiwanese expert says: I understand the logic behind the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, but I fear far too many Taiwanese people – especially younger people – are counting on a rescue from Uncle Sam" |
| ◆ RFI, AFP (France), 2025-2-23 | In reality, Taiwan would be massively outgunned in terms of troop numbers and firepower in any war with China. |
| ◆ Stanford Review, 2025-2-24 | Taiwan's military is dilapidated. The assumption of CSIS's 2023 war game rests on false premises. Upon closer examination, Taiwan's military readiness and morale stand on weak foundations. What money the government does have to spend on procurement they do so on flashy items like fighter jets, tanks, and attack helicopters–are reduced to piles of twisted steel in hours of an invasion. stanfordreview.org/the-illusion-of-taiwanese-strength/ |
| ◆ Economist (UK), 2025-2-6 | China is infiltrating Taiwan's armed forces. |
| ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21 | “People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in". |
| ◆ National Interest, 2023-7-16 | Taiwanese President announced a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received backlash from younger Taiwanese. Roll Call (2022-9-28): Most people do not want to join the military... |
| ◆ Washington Times , 2024-12-27 | visible signs of societal and governmental preparedness are lacking. Unlike Israel, where civil and military readiness is a national ethos, Taiwan appears complacent, Taiwan must cultivate a culture of national defense akin to Israel's |
| ◆ National Interest , 2024-7-30 | On top of that, Taiwan does not have a strong draft... whether Taiwan is serious about resisting a Chinese invasion or even if it takes such threats seriously. Taiwan's politicians likely realize better than Washington that Taiwanese voters may not be as inclined to make the kind of heavy sacrifices that are necessary to defend their freedom as the Ukrainians, Israelis, Finns, or Swiss. |
| ◆ Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 | Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... |
| ◆ Economist (UK), 2022-4-23 | The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”... |
| ◆ Economist (UK), 2024-9-5 | polls suggest Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics |
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pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military army" on Yandex Russia, 2025-5-1, 2025-4-13, 2025-2-22
pic.: No.3 "Taiwanese military"on Bing, 2022-9-22; No.2 "Taiwan military" at 2022-3-30, No.1 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 2021-6-4, 2021-6-1; No.3 "Taiwanese military" at 2022-9-10, No.3 "Taiwan military" at 2022-5-29 ; No.2 Taiwan military army on Yandex, 2025-2-12
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full text
(中文版 Chinese
version)
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Will the US defend Taiwan ? |
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| ◆◆Newsweek, 2025-4-8 | Would Donald Trump Defend Taiwan? Even as Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. priority is the Indo Pacific, the U.S. military is focused on the Middle East, and there have been reports that the U.S. THAAD battery in Seoul along with two Patriot missile batteries, deployed elsewhere, were moved to the Middle East. |
| ◆ New York Times, 2025-4-1 | The problem with president Mr. Lai's approach is that Taiwan can no longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now realizing |
| ◆ Fox News, 2025-2-7 | Trump's comments on the campaign trail suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of the island democracy. |
| ◆ Newsweek, 2025-1-3 | Trump, who positioned himself as being tough on China, has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China. |
| ◆ Washington Post, 2024-11-6 | Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” about American intent at a time when the Taiwanese are “directly threatened by CCP disinformation aimed at undermining U.S. credibility” |
| ◆ The Atlantics, 2024-10-25 | The shortcomings of Taiwan's military lend some validity to Trump's complaint that America's allies don't pay enough for their own defense and dump too much of the responsibility onto the United States—a burden that a second Trump administration might not be committed to bear. |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-12-31 | Without a plan, a Taiwan crisis risks undermining the foundations of American prosperity and security. As a report from a House panel concluded last year: "The United States lacks a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of conflict" with China. Imposing sweeping sanctions on China would undermine the international economic system that the United States is uniquely positioned to protect. |
| ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-12-4 | War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles "very rapidly", national security adviser J. Sullivan acknowledged that China has "the single biggest advantage", "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC" . |
| ◆ TIME, 2024-6-4 | Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc" |
| ◆ The Diplomat, 2024-11-18 | Trump's inner circle, filled with China hawks, is likely to push for increased militarization of the region and even for a proxy war in Taiwan. |
| ◆ MEMRI, 2024-10-7 |
Columbia University Professor Joseph Massad: China isn't destabilizing the region – The United States and Taiwan are; The U.S. uses Taiwan to threaten China and Ukraine to threaten Russia. |
| ◆ Reuters, 2024-11-24 | Russia says US using Taiwan to stir crisis in Asia. |
| ◆ Business Insider, 2024-11-9 | In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it. |
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China's strategy to achieve unification |
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| ◆ Brookings, 2024-9-16 | Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve unification. The PLA can subject Taiwan to various limited attacks, such as missile and air bombardment.To subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and “gray zone” military tactics... seeks to deplete the confidence of the people brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/ |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2025-1-3 | In addition to unleashing its full military power, Beijing would be expected to use a variety of economic strategies in a showdown over Taiwan. A 2023 study by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council concluded that Beijing has been more systematic in preparing such defenses than Russia was to counter Western sanctions. |
| ◆ VOX, 2024-12-16 | a majority of Taiwanese and US national security experts do not believe China currently has the capability to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, most do believe China could currently enact either a blockade or a quarantine of the island. And such an operation may prove just as effective while carrying far less risk for Beijing. |
| ◆ Politico, 2024-9-11 | Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower |
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pic. Council on Foreign Relations (Sept. 2024) |
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Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-29 Military Power - China VS. Taiwan |
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| China | Taiwan | |
| active duty forces | 2,035,000 | 170,000 |
| artillery | 9,800 | 1,200 |
| principle surface combatants | 139 | 57 |
| fighter jets | 1900 | 300 |
| bombers and attack aircraft | 450 | 0 |
| submarines | 71 | 2 |
| cfr.org/blog/taiwan-announced-record-defense-budget-it-enough-deter-china | ||
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the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, |
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| Taiwan | China | USA | Japan | Korea | Singapore | |
| Military Capability | 11th +2.1 up 21.7 | 2nd 68.1 | 1st 90.7 | 6th 27.4 | 5th | 9th |
| Resilience | 18th -5.9 down 24.7 | 3rd 70.4 | 1st | 11th | 10th | 14th |
| Defense Networks | 16th down 11.8 | 7th 23.7 |
1st 84.6 |
3rd | 4th | 5th |
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Asia's
Comprehensive Power
rankings:
1.US
2.Chn 3.Japan
4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8.
Singapore
9.Indonesia 10.Thailand 11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC) 2023 Edition |
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China vs. Taiwan Willing to fight ? |
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| China | Taiwan |
| a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ... another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites. | Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. |
| from National Interest, 2023-7-16 | |
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pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on ecosia (Berlin Germany), 2021-6-5, 2021-2-7; No.2 at 2022-3-30, 2022-3-7, 2022-1-19, 2022-1-3, 2021-5-12, 2021-4-26, 2021-3-27, 2021-3-4
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For full text, pls click https://courageworld.ch/Taiwan_military_army.htm
