Taiwan military, army


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Menu Taiwanese military ￭ News ￭ Taiwan vs. Chinese military ￭ will China strike on Taiwan? ￭ US vs. Chinese military ￭ US send troops? ￭ arms deal ￭ Taiwanese willing to fight ?

China's strategy to achieve unification
◆ Brookings, 2024-9-16	Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve unification. The PLA can subject Taiwan to various limited attacks, such as missile and air bombardment.To subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and “gray zone” military tactics... seeks to deplete the confidence of the people brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/
◆ Politico, 2024-9-11	Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower

◆ NBC News, Reuters, 2024-8-31: the use of China's tactics and strategies against Taiwan is still limited by the natural geographical environment of the Taiwan Strait and insufficient landing equipment and logistic capabilities, But China is speeding up development of a slew of new weapons, such as the H-20 bomber and hypersonic missiles and beefing up the number of nuclear warheads, and China has other options to threaten Taiwan, such as inspecting foreign cargo ships ◆ National Interest, 2024-7-30: An invasion would be swift and sharp, as the first Gulf War, China would likely knock out Taiwanese radar and air/sea defense capabilities first, followed by drops of airborne troops, including the seizure of airfields and ports. An amphibious assault would follow. The possibility of targeted special operations and cyber actions by embedded PLA assets in Taiwan ... Finally, an EMP attack might happen ◆ New York Times, 2024-7-17: Donald J. Trump said that Taiwan should pay the United States for defending it from China, a remark highlighting the uncertainties — and high stakes — of how he might handle the smoldering Taiwan Strait dispute◆ Daily Express, 2024-7-25: Fears that, if elected, Mr Trump would not support Taiwan in case of an attack from China come...the Chinese army could simply shell it without even using long-range missiles. These remarks, seen by some as a suggestion Mr Trump believes it futile to try and defend the island from potential Chinese aggression.
　

The US defends Taiwan ?

◆ TIME, 2024-6-4

Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc"

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◆ The Telegraph, 2024-5-11: Just recently Beijing manoeuvred 12 ships to within four nautical miles of Taiwan. The United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has a clear list on what you can do inside someone else's territorial waters (less than 12 nautical miles off the coast) ◆ Newsweek, 2024-5-8: Taiwan must embrace a more dynamic defensive strategy that can independently deter, or at least stall, Beijing. If China establishes a beachhead on Taiwan that can be reliably resupplied, defeat is a matter of time ◆ Asia Times, 2024-3-27 : the government has failed to make military service a viable career choice - Military service is a hard life with low pay, bad housing and no GI-Bill sort of benefits... simply isn't respected in traditional Chinese society...Taiwan's “reserve force” is shambolic and that's being charitable. There is no “territorial” or militia force, either. Taiwan also lacks a civil defense scheme. ◆ CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would also quickly spread across the globe and into cyberspace and space. There would also be real risk of a nuclear exchange. full text
　

◆ the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition
	Taiwan	China	USA	Japan	Korea	Singapore
Military Capability	11th +2.1 up 21.7	2nd 68.1	1st 90.7	6th 27.4	5th	9th
Resilience	18th -5.9 down 24.7	3rd 70.4	1st	11th	10th	14th
Defense Networks	16th down 11.8	7th 23.7	1st 84.6	3rd	4th	5th
Asia's Comprehensive Power rankings: 1.US 2.Chn 3.Japan 4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8. Singapore 9.Indonesia 10.Thailand 11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC)

◆ The Telegraph, 2024-1-26: The PLA is in crisis. That won't stop China invading Taiwan. the US intelligence community and Defense Department have consistently underestimated the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army and its intentions ◆ Defense News, 2024-1-25: China's military has declared it is “ready to fight” after large-scale combat exercises simulating sealing off Taiwan. ◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-24: Cato Institute expert says Taiwan's survival will hinge on repelling an amphibious invasion with asymmetric capabilities. first, to survive an initial bombardment, and second, to prevent the seizure of ports, airfields and beachheads during the initial hours of an invasion ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: For years, Taiwan eschewed investing in coastal defense and asymmetric capabilities, preferring to spend considerable sums on costly weapons platforms that would easily be outclassed by China. If belatedly, Taiwan has reversed course. Yet, the scope and scale are insufficient. Both urgency and drastic changes are required to deter, and if necessary, defend Taiwan ◆ Asia Times, 2024-1-8: As with Ukraine, a proxy war in Taiwan would be waged with “our bullets, their blood,” in the words of one Oliver North. In fact, the DPP government has already made a decisive step in the direction of turning young Taiwanese into US cannon fodder by extending the period of compulsory military service from four months to one year, beginning in 2024. That is the “blood” part. ◆ ABC Australia, 2024-1-3: As China flexes its military muscles, everyday citizens in Taiwan are preparing for war. China has more than 2 million active personnel compared to Taiwan's 170,000 troops, as well as five times as many tanks and six times as many fighter aircraft. War today might not unfold as it did in the past … nowadays, hybrid warfare blurs the lines between peacetime and wartime. full text

nBusiness Insider, 2024-1-8: After then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's whirlwind visit in 2022, Beijing's People's Liberation Army launched unprecedented joint military exercises around Taiwanese airspace and waters. The danger is that China could go further this year (if DPP Lai wins presidential election in Jan. 2024)

nPelosi visiting Taiwan
★ Economist, 2022-8-11: It is becoming ever harder to prevent a war over Taiwan. The danger is that China uses the crisis to set new boundaries for its encroachments into what Taiwan considers its airspace and territorial waters. economist.com/leaders/2022/08/11/how-to-prevent-a-war-between-america-and-china-over-taiwan
★ Japan Times (2023-8-4): Pelosi's visit marked an inflection point after which China sharply escalated its gray-zone military operations near Taiwan, eroding the island's security，...Taiwan's inability to deter the drills or lessen their impact, ...Nor did the U.S. directly respond to China's provocations. ── some in the CCP likely interpreted the inaction as reluctance to intervene militarily on Taiwan's behalf. japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2023/08/04/world/taiwan-china-defense/ MATTHEW FULCO
★ Foreign Policy (2022-8-22): After Pelosi's Visit, Most of the Indo-Pacific Sides With Beijing

★ Diplomat (2023-8-10): Since the Pelosi Visit, China Has Created a New Normal ── PLA aircraft could appear above the capital city within minutes thediplomat.com/2023/08/since-the-pelosi-visit-china-has-created-a-new-normal-in-the-taiwan-strait/

nAfter Pelosi leaving Taiwan - China held a drill
★ USA Today (2022-8-4): Taiwan says they violate its sovereignty and equate to the "sealing off" of the island "by air and sea.". United Daily (Taiwan, 2022-8-26) : President Tsai Ing-wen did not dare to utter a word against China.
★ L.A. Times: The threat of Chinese military action has loomed for so long that few seem to raise an eyebrow

★ N.Y. Times (2022-8-3): Taiwan has grown adept at courting senior lawmakers from major powers. (But Tsai Ing-wen was so weak or "prudent" as not to take active countermeasure. )

◆ Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues
Advantages	including geography and climate.
Challenges	(1) the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan. (2) Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. At a societal level, it is not clear what costs — in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives — Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear.

◆ Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

♦ CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”.

♦ Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.".

♦ BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore Drew Thompson: the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China... The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
♦ NewsWeek, 2023-9-29: A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in. Policy experts in the U.S. have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so。
♦ The Diplomat, 2023-9-30: The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.

◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-9-21: China is building a powerful military to beat America in a war over Taiwan; China is readying for war today. China's military has practiced deploying Ro-Ro ferries as amphibious landers; In the military realm, China's biggest threats reside in their military’s ability to launch disruptive, devastating attacks on the United States in space, across the EM spectrum, and in cyberspace. ◆ The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel ◆ The Conversation, 2023-8-16: According to some Taiwanese observers, the people of Taiwan would be unwilling to pay such a heavy price (Ukraine is paying a heavy price in terms of lost lives and a shattered economy) to preserve its political autonomy. ◆ The WarZone, 2023-8-16: Taiwan's arsenal of counterstrike weapons like the HF-2E would not be sufficient to outright stop an actual invasion from the mainland. ◆ The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action. ◆ full text

Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-29 China VS. Taiwan
	China	Taiwan
active duty forces	2,035,000	170,000
artillery	9,800	1,200
principle surface combatants	139	57
fighter jets	1900	300
bombers and attack aircraft	450	0
submarines	71	2
cfr.org/blog/taiwan-announced-record-defense-budget-it-enough-deter-china

◆ Taiwan into 'powder keg'

♦ 2022-7-19: Mark Esper suggests extending Taiwan's compulsory military service period to ensure combat effectiveness

♦ 2022-12-24: The US signs into law the NDAA for the fiscal year 2023, under NDAA, a war reserve stockpile of weapons is to be established in Taiwan

♦ 2022-12-27: Taiwan extended the period of compulsory military service to one year

♦ 2023-3-24: Former National Security advisor Robert O'brien says Taiwan should familiarize its people with weapons to deter Chinese mainland
♦ 2023-4-20: The Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the US and CCP conducts a war game on a cross-Taiwan Strait War, and vows to "arm Taiwan to the teeth" to deter an "invasion"
♦ 2023-7-28: Biden Admin. announces a $345 millions weapons package for Taiwan.
chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/11/WS64d5646da31035260b81b718.html 2023-8-11

◆ National Interest, 2023-7-16 - Willing to fight ?
China	Taiwan
a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ... another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites.	Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.

◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-17: Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army ◆ USNI, 2023-6-7: on paper Taiwan fields one of the world’s most advanced ASCMs, but we don’t have the data on actual performed real combat.”; Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are “rumors [sic] about slow production” related to “hang-ups in the defense [sic] industrial complex” and Taiwan is “struggling to produce large numbers of anything.”; Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - a traditional navy or an asymmetric one ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-5-31: China could decide to launch a series of actions short of war — seizing one of Taiwan's small outlying islands, say, or interfering with Taiwanese shipping ... without provoking a US military response. ◆ full text

changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait
Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21: Effective deterrence requires credible threats to be matched with credible assurances. The G7 should make clear to Beijing it has no desire to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/sanctioning-china-in-a-taiwan-crisis-scenarios-and-risks/ Charlie Vest and Agatha Kratz	AP (Germany Berlin), 2023-6-22: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned Beijing against using force to change the status quo with Taiwan news.yahoo.com/germany-warns-china-over-taiwan-103947340.html
Global Times (China), 2023-6-21: Blinken said "We remain opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side". China's Foreign Ministry: the three China-US Joint Communiqués means that the US recognizes the real status quo in the Taiwan Straits, that is, there is only one China in the world, and both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China. However, the US has unilaterally attached the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances to its one-China policy, these are not consensus reached by both China and the US. The US is tampering with political commitments on one-China policy. globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1292976.shtml

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◆ Reuters, 2023-5-20	"war is not an option", Taiwan president says
◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-5-19	The top-line fact in the weapons to Ukraine or Taiwan debate / Taiwan's defense spending remains absurdly inadequate. It's also feasible that Taiwan may elect a new government in 2024 that lacks sufficient resolve to fight China. In contrast, Ukraine has shown not just the resolve to fight against overwhelming odds, but the spirit to win.

◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-4-25: a war over Taiwan is, in the best case, a war the U.S. may still lose... the provision of Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-air missiles to Ukraine comes as an undeniable detriment to Taiwan's defensive potential. Both might decide the outcome of the next war ◆ The Hill, 2023-4-19: The battle lines are being drawn for a war across East Asia involving Taiwan ◆ U.S. Naval War College - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system, the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-13: In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: An invasion would almost certainly begin with massive missile and rocket strikes on Taiwan. These would quickly destroy much of Taiwan’s navy, air force and air defences. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks ◆ Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief: Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan ◆ EurAsian Times, 2023-2-26: "No Boots On Ground': Majority Of US Voters' Chicken Out’ From Sending Soldiers To Taiwan To Battle China ◆ Japan Times, 2023-2-19: There is no evidence that China is in a hurry to attack Taiwan, despite a number of U.S. government and military officials citing 2027 or even 2025 as a potential deadline for forcible unification ◆ Daily Express (UK), 2023-2-17: A "proxy war" between China and the US over Taiwan could happen during the Biden presidency ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-2-17: New House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman: Ukraine is capable of fighting on their own if we give them the weapons. Taiwan cannot fight this war alone, even if we gave them the weapons. ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan ◆ US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1: The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war; it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch ◆ Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly. China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. ◆ Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan. "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade".◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26: Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence ; If Lai Ching-te (a staunch proponent of the island's independence) does win, Beijing could move quickly to invade. ◆ New York Post, 2023-1-14: the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. ◆ full text

General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025? The Hill, 2023-2-2, Fox News, 2023-2-4, USA Today, 2023-2-3
US generals, officials, experts, law-makers	China invade Taiwan by ?
CIA Director William Burns	Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Jan. 2023)	China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by 2027
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday (Oct., 2022)	Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or a potentially a 2023 window
Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Oct., 2022)	on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner (July, 2022)	“only a matter of time”
Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command	2025
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the Center for a New American Security,	before 2027, a crisis or incident that could spiral out of control
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul	agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.”
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.)	2025
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.)	the 2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but “highly unlikely,”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey	2025 , a“bad judgment”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Nov. 2022)	it will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.
news.yahoo.com/general-memo-spurs-debate-could-110000282.html news.yahoo.com/china-says-balloon-flying-over-152021436.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

◆The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general ◆ The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to erupt，Taiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints ◆ The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion ◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28: Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024 ◆ France 24, 2022-12-26: Seventy-one warplanes deployed by China in war drills - the largest reported incursion to date ◆ Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ full text

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China
WSJ, 2022-12-27	a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP, 2022-12-27	The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however, only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27	Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27	It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28	The change is said to have come at the request of the United States mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27	"a deplorable decision" made under US pressure / the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml 12-27

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23: ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely ◆ National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn’t Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential ◆ 1945, 2022-12-12: the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy ◆ SCMP,2022-11-3: China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification, even if US says so ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28: U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2022-10-27: A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future ◆ The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk ◆ Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue ◆ Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing ◆ The Diplomat, 2022-10-21: recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur ◆ New York Times,2022-10-17: China's leader warns of “perilous, stormy seas”ahead ◆ Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress; the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of opera tional experience ◆ New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns against international 'interference' ◆ VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War ◆ Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies. ◆ The SUN (UK),2022-10-16:an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan. ◆Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... Taiwan professor:“Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10: In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake ◆ TIME, 2022-10-5: Even without a blockade, a Chinese air and missile campaign alone could defang Taiwan's military and shut down the country's economy ◆ NY Times, 2022-10-5: If China decides to establish a naval blockade around Taiwan, American ... would offer the least likelihood ...into direct conflict; Cornell prof.: The U.S. has to make clear that the U.S. doesn't have a strategic interest in having Taiwan being permanently separated from mainland China ◆ full text

Chinese Communist Party Congress
◆ CNBC, 2022-10-18	Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force
◆ NY Times, 2022-10-16	China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — ‘strategic patience'
◆ LA Times, 2022-10-16	Chinese Communist Party Congress affords another step for Xi Jinping's consolidation of power
◆ full text

◆ Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal".◆ FoxNews, 2022-10-2: soon-to-be Secretary-General of ASEAN: China 'would not' invade Taiwan if Beijing believes it owns the island ◆ Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says ◆ CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆The Hill, 2022-9-15: The next step would be to enforce a quarantine of the island to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and slowly strangle their economy until an agreement is reached. ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2022-9-14: (US) military's most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s...This creates a window of vulnerability for Taiwan, most likely between 2024 and 2027 ◆ full text

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

♣ Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
♣ The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html

♣ VICE, 2022-9-28: no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

◆ Diplomat, 2022-9-13: the most fundamental threat Taiwan faces is to its economy and its energy system (imports nearly all of its energy) ◆ LA Times, 2022-9-11: China's leaders know their power is about to diminish, and that will make them more likely to take risks in the short run — to invade Taiwan, for example ◆ full text

Defending Taiwan by Taiwanese ?? some human factors ~
President Tsai I. W.	youngsters	the public
♣ VICE, 2022-9-28: president's prescriptions have been piecemeal, and there is no national plan to overhaul the military. (developing asymmetric warfare capabilities as US experts advise) ♣ Roll Call, 2022-9-28: ...overhaul its military reservist program — our general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to 50 and their children, will fight against that policy... “It's hard for the ruling party to do it !" Younger voters are a critical base of support for president Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party. 　 ♣ New York Times, 2022-6-19: politicians have electoral considerations ( military conscription reform) ♣ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6: The policy of lengthening mandatory military service won't be decided until end of 2022 , obviously the admin. is with an eye to presidential election. udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2	♣ Roll Call, 2022-9-28: Most people do not want to join the military... The March opinion poll : lower levels of support (56 percent) among the 20-24 age group for lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year. 　 ♣ China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year. World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are willing to be on the battlefield. chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv 　　 PS: By law, all able-bodied men in South Korea must serve 18-21 months in the military under a conscription system; In Israel - men 32 months and women 24 months, minimum.	♣ axios,2022-9-27: ...the common belief in Taiwan that if China were to invade, Taiwan would have no choice but to surrender immediately. ♣ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ... 　 ♣ Global Times, 2022-10-10: a poll shows that only 41.4 percent gave a definite "yes" to the determination to sacrifice themselves to defend the island, according to Taiwan-based media globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276853.shtml 　 ♣ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps 　 ♣ Brookings, 2021-1-22: Only 23% thought that democracy was more important than economic development. 16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than reducing economic inequality. 　 ♣ United Daily (Taiwan, 聯合報), 2022-10-10: The great majority of polls show Taiwanese are not willing to fight for "Taiwan independence". udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2
⊙ S. Korean presidential candidates have never tried to win the election by shortening mandatory military service (their service days is about 5 times of Taiwan's), but Taiwan's politicians do ! for instance, a ruling party's law-maker Tsai argues what's the reason to lengthen military service !? (see udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2 2022-10-6 ) ⊙ United Daily,2022-10-10: The Defense chief told the US that the mandatory military service can be lengthen up to 2~3 years, but President Tsai decide it'll be just 1 year at present for electoral considerations.(and not to declare until end of election) brief udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2 陳一新榮譽教授

◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-12:Xi Jinping would invade Taiwan if authorities in Taipei stop referring to their government as the Republic of China ◆ The Global and Mail (Canada), 2022-9-10: Taiwan's long-term survival prospects are much worse than Ukraine's... it would probably take Taiwan five years of defence spending at 5 per cent of GDP, ... a return to several years of conscription and large active reserves in the Israeli model ◆ Foreign Policy,2022-9-8: strategic priorities, budgets, and acquisition limitations, are preventing Taipei from laying in the critical war-reserve materiel it would need to against PLA ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-9-7: In Taiwan, many young citizens concluded that conscription was a waste of time and a tedious chore....those with political connections seek to be posted in cities rather than at the border or in the field. ◆ Bloomberg , 2022-9-7: China Invading Taiwan Is ‘Distinct Threat’◆ Weekend Australian , 2022-9-7: Best way to avoid war is to arm Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-6: Taiwan sees Bidens political-fears weakening us-strategy to counter china ◆ full text (中文版 Chinese)

Biden : "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"

Lowy Institute (Australia), 2022-9-27 brutal fact – that as China has grown stronger, the cost to America of defending Taiwan has grown to far outweigh the imperatives for it to do so lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/taiwan-biden-risks-talking-himself-war-he-cannot-win

CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence... Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html

Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-20 wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously, two key concerns here. (1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in face of the existential threat it faces. (2) It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw

Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23 At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html

The Guardian, 2022-9-21 the president's remarks are provocative to Beijing without providing security to Taiwan or the US, Biden is conveying anxiety rather than confidence ... theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/21/biden-taiwan-comments-china-war-independence

Politico, 2022-9-19 The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said. politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658

Washington Post, 2022-9-19 Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors with a stronger set of legislative instructions washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/

Bloomberg, 2022-9-20

“Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence — U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea will almost certainly be made more uneasy... risks pulling them into a war msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX

Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20

Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous", this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/

DW (Germany), 2022-9-19

scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248

Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19

Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan . lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html

France 24 (France), 2022-9-19

most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.。Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approach”msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO

Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19

Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence" express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont

Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19

Expert Bonnie Glaser: “China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans”, Prof. Lev Nachman: “The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55

Global Times (Chn), 2022-2-25

Washington claimed it "stands with Ukraine," and repeatedly promised it would protect Ukraine at critical junctures. But now the one that suffers is still Kiev. Hasn't the world seen enough of the US breaking its promises? globaltimes.cn/page/202202/1253176.shtml

Modern Diplomacy.eu, 2022-2-25

Under the Budapest Memorandum, the US and UK promised to ensure Ukraine's security, geographical integrity and sovereignty, but, the world has seen that both the US and UK have not fulfilled their promise. moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/25/ukraine-is-betrayed-by-the-us-and-uk/

Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19

Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet / The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical, but it’s a majorly consequential hypothetical that now includes a firm commitment — whether that firm commitment is technically official policy or not washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/

Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19

his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill. China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said. globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml

The Conversation (Australia),
2022-9-20

so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict. news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html

Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

TIME, 2022-10-5

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued... “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself....” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation...

New York Times, 2022-9-9

Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail

New York Times, 2022-8-29

Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it. Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.

National Interest, 2022-5-15

Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China

VOA News, 2021-5-10

Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action

AIT (US), 2021-5-22

Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.

Fox News, 2022-8-26

Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue

New York Times, 2022-1-25

75 percent of production takes place in East Asia. Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States. nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html

CBS News, 2022-9-25

Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips / ◆ BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021
Taiwan	S. Korea	China	Other
65%	18%	5%	12%
news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

◆ The Hill, 2022-9-6: none of the three governments that could begin a war over Taiwan — those in Washington, Beijing and Taipei — should see war as in its interest...Taiwan will be extremely hard for us to defend ◆ abc news, 2022-9-5: Military reserves, Civil Defense worry Taiwan as China looms ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-5: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid 'challenges from within' ◆Daily Express (UK), 2022-8-29: WW3 looming as 'no good options' remain in 'dangerous' China-US conflict over Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: America has changed,...it began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today... Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend itself ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed ◆ Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect. ◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan - have become "acceptable" - because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this becomes the new standard ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-8: China's drills near Taiwan is a sign that Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its airspace and waters ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-7: China’s leader has made it clearer than any of his predecessors that he sees unifying Taiwan with China to be a primary goal of his rule ◆ The Hill, 2022-8-6: Taiwan...too economically dependent on China to withstand an economic cold war with Beijing. ◆ full text

Washington Post, 2022-8-17: if there's a crisis on Taiwan, Americans say~ (msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-americans-think-about-china-and-taiwan/ar-AA10L80C)
65 percent	support sending additional arms and military equipment to Taiwan
62 percent	support having the U.S. Navy prevent China from imposing a blockade around Taiwan
only 40 percent	favor sending U.S. troops to help the Taiwanese government defend itself.
2021 Chicago Council Survey	46 percent of Americans were willing to explicitly commit to defend Taiwan from attack.

Taiwan vs. US

Taiwan VS. US's "porcupine" weapons

The US disagrees Taiwan's requests for big-ticket weapons

◆ Financial Times, 2022-8-19: Intensified military pressure from China has reinforced Taiwan's desire to acquire large weapons platforms such as warships and fighters...widens gulf on procurement policy between Taipei and its main arms supplier

ft.com/content/0d492ad7-9346-4c9e-b186-834c6fc75e85

◆ Economist, 2022-5-10:These flashier purchases are politically popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone” attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have increased every year
◆WEEK (UK), 2022-5-12: Taiwan plans to “throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”

◆ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-5-19 : Can the guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block the Russian main force in Ukraine?

◆ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6 : Taiwan military was forced to accept the concept of "asymmetric war", in last year $80 billions Harpoon Coastal Defense Missile systems were forcibly sent to Taiwan ... but missiles are not good for China's gray-zone war at present. udn.com/news/story/11091/6665520?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2

◆ The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26 : Urban guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large number of civilian casualties。
◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-8-20 : “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue

◆ Financial Times, 2022-5-17: Washington was right to push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion, but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.

◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: flashy F-16 sales do little to defend Taiwan from China's missile force. warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis-is-just-starting/

◆ Financial Times, 2022-8-19:Washington is trying to force Taipei to prioritise “asymmetric” weapons — systems that exploit an adversary’s weakness instead of trying to match its strengths.

◆ Business Insider, 2022-8-21: expensive equipment such as fighter jets, helicopters, and tanks to prepare against a possible Chinese invasion, defense experts say these would easily be destroyed by an attacker, according to the Journal's report. businessinsider.com/taiwan-learns-ukraine-porcupine-strategy-defend-against-china-2022-8

◆ New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China); But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
◆ Politico, 2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out assault from the mainland.
◆ Economist, 2022-5-10: expensive conventional equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines — are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile — a "porcupine" strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
◆ Politico, 2022-5-19: the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
◆ WSJ , 2022-5-8: F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
◆ National Interest, 2022-5-15: One important task has been to tailor the provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and Seahawk helicopters.
◆ Foreign Policy , 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
◆ Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance armed drones...

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-8-5: Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for an even more consequential onslaught against Taiwan... it could trigger a conflict that would make the war in Ukraine look minor by comparison ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3: failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago. ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2022-7-26: The risks to Taiwan from Chinese aggression have gained urgency since Russia's attacks on Ukraine... a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for China to pull off in the near term. Instead, it could do so piecemeal ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait ◆The Hill , 2022-7-26: The longer the Biden administration continues delaying and stinting its support for Ukraine without enabling Kyiv to halt and reverse Russia's invasion, the more precarious both Ukraine's and Taiwan's positions become ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan — possibly by force — is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan ◆ le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan ◆ full text

Contrast Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and 2022
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-5	the U.S. military had ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan to “remain on station” in the region but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait.，... during a crisis in 1996, when President Bill Clinton moved aircraft carriers closer to the strait. (PS: and conducted large scale drills zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/台灣海峽飛彈危機 ) nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-drills.html
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-4	... failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago.
◆ United Daily (Taiwan) , 2022-8-5	The drill has been conducted under US tacit permission, which shakes the policy of peaceful resolution... udn.com/news/story/11091/6515486?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
◆ USA Today, 2022-8-6	National Security Council:U.S. would postpone intercontinental ballistic missile test scheduled... reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception news.yahoo.com/china-halts-climate-military-ties-152347684.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
◆ Global Times (China), 2022-8-5	the US Navy's Ronald Reagan carrier strike group retreated hundreds of kilometers eastward overnight, after the PLA announced live-fire exercise zones east of the island。

China's Missiles over Taiwan in 2022-8-5
◆ CNN, 2022-8-4	missiles flying over the island marked a significant escalation
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3	China's CCTV stated that one of the missiles flew over Taiwan, marking another escalation of Chinese pressure on the island and risking serious miscalculation.
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-25	sending at least four high over the island itself, according to Japan
◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22	Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island

◆ Raw Story, 2022-8-24	◆ N.Y. Times, 2022-8-25
Congressman Beyer (D-VA) said. ... now it's every hour there's a Chinese military plane flying overhead of Taipei	The exercises...China did not roll out its most advanced weaponry. It flew planes near Taiwan, not over it.

China's "the largest and most sophisticated military exercises it has ever conducted" (Economist, 2022-8-10) WHY ??
NY Times, 2022-8-25	They were meant to intimidate Taiwan and the United States nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/25/world/asia/china-taiwan-conflict-blockade.html
NY Times, 2022-8-4	Stanford scholar: “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.” nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-exercises.html
Business Insider, 2022-8-5	"a show of force to respond to Pelosi's visit" and "to exhibit [China's] displeasure" and "presumably to deter the US or other countries from undertaking visits like this ..." "readiness to respond to Taiwan provocations" news.yahoo.com/chinas-missile-launches-military-drills-211102958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
AFP (France), 2022-8-6	a former CIA Asia analyst: main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo.，"The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker's visit." American University Professor: Beijing's message was meant to signal that China can alter the power balance in the region if it chooses. "The Chinese seriously believe that the United States has not been respecting their interests on the Taiwan issue" news.yahoo.com/us-china-relations-risk-long-215317757.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
The Times (UK), 2022-8-6	Chinese jets menace Taiwan in an end to diplomacy
BBC, 2022-8-9	this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbours which have rival claims to the South China Sea bbc.com/news/62460809
NY Times, 2022-8-8	not only to intimidate Taiwan and the United States, but also to appease a domestic audience that had seemed disappointed by what it perceived as an insufficiently bellicose posture. cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220808/china-exercises-taiwan/zh-hant/dual/
Global Times (Chn), 2022-8-5	Some Taiwan-based media hyped that the mainland's economic punishment could antagonize the public... "If the mainland opts for economic sanctions, it may terminate the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)"... Taiwan had a trade surplus of more than $170 billion with the Chinese mainland in 2021. globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272245.shtml

Military Balance across the Taiwan Strait, 2022 / Economist, 2022-8-11
	China	Taiwan
Personnel	2,035,000	169,000
Reserves	510,000	1,657,000
Main battle tanks	5,400	750
Sub	65	4
Waships	86	26
Attack helicopters	308	96
Other combat-capable aircraft	2,475	474
Defense spending, $bn	270.0	12.1
economist.com/china/2022/08/11/how-the-crisis-over-taiwan-will-change-us-china-relations

Chinese and Taiwanese armed forces / Daily Express, 2022-8-13
	China	Taiwan
Active duty personnel	2,035,000	169,000
Ground Force	965,000	94,000
Navy	260,000	40,000
Air Force	395,000	35,000
Reserves	510,000	1,650,000
Tanks	5,400	650
Aircrafts	3,200+	500
sub	59	4
Naval ships	86	26
Artillery	9,800	2,093
Strategic missile Forces	120,000	0
Strategic Support Force	145,000	0
Other Forces	150,000	0
express.co.uk/news/science/1654612/china-news-putin-squeeze-taiwan-cripple-world-key-metals-ban-stainless-steel-manufacturing source: The Military Balance, 2022 IISS

WHY? Taiwanese people "don't worry"
China's "the largest and most sophisticated military exercises" circling Taiwan island ??
　

nDaily Express, 2022-8-16: Taiwan's representative to Germany has warned of the risk of an impending attack by China on Taiwan... "They're going to attack us."
nLibre (Japan), UDN, 2022-8-16: Taiwanese president Tsai I W: The situation in Taiwan Strait is very tense. and Taiwan is facing huge challenges.
nCNN, 2022-8-8: Taiwan's foreign minister says : "I worry that China may really launch a war against Taiwan,"; But the mood in Taiwan remained calm, with life carrying on as usual with packed restaurants and crowded public transport. Independent (2022-8-16) reports Taiwan's poll: 45 % said that they were not afraid at all and 33 % said they were not very afraid
　

♣ NBC, 2022-8-10: nbcnews.com/news/world/is-taiwan-worried-china-threat-invasion-pelosi-visit-rcna41964
A: many residents say they are used to intimidation by Beijing ..." I don't think China will attack because our rockets can also reach Beijing and Shanghai" ;
Experts: many residents in Ukraine reacted with disbelief to Russia's long-signaled invasion...whether Taiwan is being too complacent.? people in Taiwan need to take this more seriously, they don't fully appreciate the circumstance they're in,”...
♣ New York Times, 2022-8-9: many watching from outside Taiwan seemed to expect Taiwanese to be “hysterically” stockpiling food and crafting evacuation plans ... a Taiwanese girl says: "Taiwanese people appearing calm in the face of rising tension is not due to ignorance or naïveté, but because this is accepted — even internalized — as a part of being Taiwanese”.

♣ United Daily (Taiwan ) , 2022-8-11: A poll showed that about 60% of the respondents were not worried about further military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, which surprised foreign media, Some posts on the net reflect what Taiwanese people's thought, "because China PLA won't attack us", " we are used to it" ," we have been intimidated two or three times per year" ... It appears too many intimidations made our people NUMB !

Pelosi visiting Taiwan CNN,2022-7-29: potentially triggering the worst cross-strait crisis in decades
NY Times, 2022-7-28	Nancy Pelosi's Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous! The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html
Global Times(China), 2022-7-28	China's defense ministry issues fresh, rare warning: The US should not underestimate the crisis and possible disastrous results it will bring to the Taiwan Straits if Pelosi ultimately makes the trip... if the US does not pull back but keeps challenging the guardrail, the price will be beyond US capabilities to pay"... The rare expressions "yanzhen yidai" (嚴陣以待), PLA "will not sit idly by" (不會坐視) were used (in Korea war and Vietnam war).“ - China will not sit idly by if US troops crossed the 38th parallel. globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271693.shtml
中囯 Global Times, 2022-7-28	Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this," Xi said via telephone,... globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271696.shtml
GT (China), 2022-7-29	it is time for Washington to slam on the brake of its radical moves on the Taiwan question!
NPR, 2022-7-28	President Biden looks to ease tensions with Xi over Taiwan npr.org/2022/07/28/1114314905/biden-and-chinas-xi-discuss-tensions-over-taiwan
Reuters (UK), 2022-7-29	"So far, there are few indications in Chinese official statements, nor online or domestic media, which would suggest that China is considering more serious military action at this time, although that could change" news.yahoo.com/analysis-despite-xis-fire-call-003612894.html
Global Times(China), 2022-8-3	It looks like the visit helped the US "score a win," just for now, but in the long run, it will lose more advantages.

◆ DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20: Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military reforms◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-7: Chinese diplomat says 'reunification' with Taiwan near ◆ full text

◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-3: these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆VOA, 2022-6-30: US Believes China Still Hoping to Take Taiwan Without Force ◆ Axios,2022-6-28: Taiwan focuses on power projection instead of defense, and lacks a well-developed security studies academic community... distrust in Taiwan between politicians and the military lingers ◆ EurAsian Times, 2022-6-27: Bonnie Glaser told Politico: the active-duty military is not willing to work with the reserve force, which is seen as insufficiently trained; there isn’t much enthusiasm among the civilians to work with the military or the military to work with civilians ◆ N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat / ...Taiwan is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan’s defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed... Taiwan military leaders argue that smaller weapons are not useful for standing up to China in visible ways. Long-range missiles capable of striking the mainland could deter Beijing ...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help. ◆ Guardian, 2022-6-15: Tensions heighten in Taiwan Strait as China acts to extend military operations ◆ Newsweek, 2022-6-15: China Warns of Taiwan Demise After Official Claims Missiles Can Hit Beijing ◆ Taipei Times, 2022-6-11:A survey conducted by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo showed that 73 percent of respondents believe China might take military action against Taiwan. ◆ AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says; With concerns mounting over China-Taiwan tensions, Japanese Prime Minister issued a stark warning at the summit: "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow". ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price...China is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe" bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq. ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-6-1: Washington fears a possible Chinese invasion by 2027. All for one: U.S. enlists its Asian allies in defense of Taiwan ◆ Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30: Putin is winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much deadlier ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-27: A 2018 congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan, citing China’s increasingly advanced capabilities and myriad U.S. logistical difficulties ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2022-5-17: US wanted Taiwan to focus on capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, air and missile defences, command and communications, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, and early- warning systems... Taipei also wants to guard against, such as Chinese incursions into its air defence identification zone or a sea blockade ◆ full text

US military would defend Taiwan by ‘intervening militarily’ ?

◆ New York Times, 2022-5-23: Biden Says U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded, dispensing with the “strategic ambiguity” traditionally favored by American presidents ...The White House quickly tried to deny ..., Mr. Biden’s unscripted declaration put Japan in a complicated position. 。nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-defense.html

◆ Guardian, 2022-5-23: Biden's Taiwan vow creates confusion not clarity – and raises China tensions theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/23/biden-taiwan-china-strategic-ambiguity-us-foreign-policy
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-23: “We agree with the One China policy and all the attendant agreements we made. But the idea that it can be taken by force, just taken by force, would just not be appropriate,” Mr. Biden said.。wsj.com/articles/biden-says-u-s-would-intervene-militarily-if-china-invaded-taiwan-11653286228
◆ New York Post, 2022-5-23:White House walks back Biden Taiwan defense claim for third time in 9 months nypost.com/2022/05/23/white-house-walks-back-biden-taiwan-defense-claim-again/

◆ Politico, 2022-5-23:The president's “strategic ambiguity” backtrack may hasten Taiwan Strait conflict, observers say
◆ Economist, 2022-5-23: the gap between presidential statements and official policy is giving rise to a new form of ambiguity—strategic perhaps; or maybe simply incoherent

economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/05/23/what-is-americas-policy-of-strategic-ambiguity-over-taiwan

◆ BBC, 2022-5-23:Biden vows to defend Taiwan in apparent US policy shift
◆ TIME, 2022-5-23:president Biden's Vow To Defend Taiwan Is Bold but Incredibly Risky
◆ Bloomberg, 2022-5-23:Biden Misspeaks on Taiwan, Says US Military Would Intervene

◆ AFP, CBS News, 2022-5-23: President Joe Biden said Monday the U.S. would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan, in one of the most forceful and overt statements of American government support for Taiwan in decades. 。Beijing was quick to respond, ... "No one should underestimate the firm resolve, staunch will and strong ability of the Chinese people in defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity" . cbsnews.com/news/biden-china-taiwan-us-military-recession-monkeypox/

◆ Global Times, 2022-5-23: Biden's remarks on ‘intervening militarily’ in Taiwan question not gaffe but signals hollowing out one-China policy......"Sending troops is military interference, offering weapons and military intelligence and conducting rescue can also be interpreted as 'intervening militarily'... the US... will have no time and no willingness to come to Taiwan's rescue.
◆ New York Times, 2022-5-24: Asked if he would send in troops if China attacked Taiwan, Biden said, “The policy has not changed at all.”
　

◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-10: James Anderson: The PRC roughly has that capability to forcibly retake the island sooner than 2027 ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4: Since the Chinese economy is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous. ◆ Washington Post, 2022-5-4: China insists... has no plans to attack the island it claims as its own. ◆ Guardian, 2022-4-24: ... waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking into conflict may well be growing ◆ Economist, 2022-4-20: the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days; Taiwan can learn ...Fighting spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe ◆ Bloomberg, 2022-4-21: Putin's Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming force ◆ Taipei Times, 2022-4-25: Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-4-18: Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut ◆ Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil - to deter America from intervening in conflict over Taiwan ◆ full text

" Strategic Clarity" - US defend Taiwan	"Strategic Ambiguity"
◆ Independent, 2022-4-19: Japanese former PM Abe Shinzo (安倍):China are permanent, veto-wielding members of the United Nations Security Council, the UN’s mediation function cannot be relied upon for conflicts in which they are involved... Ukraine is an independent state beyond any doubt, Taiwan is not....Unlike in Ukraine, Chinese leaders could claim that any invasion of Taiwan that China launches is necessary to suppress anti-government activities in one of its own regions, and that such acts therefore would not violate international law...The time has come for the US to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against any attempted Chinese invasion. ◆ Japan Times, 2022-4-19: U.S. 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan must end! US policy of ambiguity toward Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by encouraging China to underestimate U.S. resolve...	◆ The Guardian, 2022-4-24: a switch from “strategic ambiguity” to clarity ... would prompt a major reaction from Beijing and might not enhance deterrence。 ◆ Economist, 2022-4-23: Promising to fight for Taiwan, as some advocate, would do little to deter China, which already assumes America will do so. And such a promise would, at the very least, cause a diplomatic crisis...President Joe Biden has said explicitly that America will not join the fighting (in Ukriane) for fear of starting “World War III”.。 ◆ Foreign Policy, 2022-4-26: U.S. security cooperation is a more powerful demonstration of commitment than any declaration of intent. ◆ L.A. Times, 2022-4-23: It will never be in America's interests to join a military confrontation over Taiwan that could quickly escalate to involve the use of nuclear weapons.
PS: What is "Strategic Ambiguity" ?? It's a guessing game. The U.S. has two obligations to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act: to sell it arms and to maintain the capacity to protect the island. In essence, it doesn't have to defend Taiwan, but it can. csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2021/1214/Time-to-be-clear-on-Taiwan-Strategic-ambiguity-faces-test

◆ SCMP, 2022-4-11: Taiwan will have to rely on itself to defend the island from a mainland attack, analysts say ◆ FoxNews, 2022-4-4: "It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when" ◆ Foreign Policy, 2022-3-31: Only 2 percent of respondents (international relations experts at U.S. universities and colleges) supported direct military action against Russia compared to 18 percent in a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-3-29: Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed to upgrade Taiwan's military...many younger Taiwanese dislike conscription ◆ New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the danger for Taiwan. China has time: Any invasion of Taiwan could be years away ◆ L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: Taiwan hasn't built the kind of territorial defense force Ukraine is using to great effect right now...over much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the opposite direction: It cut the size of its regular army and reduced the training of its reserves... it will take more than five years to get there. ◆ TIME, 2022-3-18: mandatory military service ... is only four months—compared to 18 months in South Korea, and about two years in Israel and Singapore. “We only had basic training"...most analysts say that the island would not be able to stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine’s situation has sparked debate over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid ◆ Japan Times, Bloomberg, 2022-3-20: Nine in 10 Japanese people are concerned that China may invade Taiwan ◆ DW, 2022-3-15: Easton: Taiwan's military now lacks manpower and requires updated and intensified training. legislator: "we are far from ready" ◆Washington Post, 2022-3-15: The war in Ukraine could make China rethink invading Taiwan ◆ Politico, 2022-3-14: Taiwan's military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068 billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement ◆ Fox News, 2022-3-13: China warns of 'worst consequences' for any country that supports Taiwan militarily ◆ full text

Is Taiwan willing to fight for itself ?
New York Times, 2021-8-16: Biden: American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves.
Taiwanese army	◆ L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the opposite direction: It cut the size of its regular army and reduced the training of its reserves. ◆ Economist, 2022-4-23: The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”... ◆ Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... ◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19 : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. however, the United States may not be up to the task. ◆ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...
imported wrong weapons	◆ L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: It invested in high-end weapons beloved by military brass, like F-16s and Abrams tanks, instead of more mundane tools that might deter a shipborne invader: antiaircraft weapons, anti-ship missiles and advanced mines. ◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19: Taiwan's advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage. ◆ NBC, 2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes. ◆ Economist 2022-4-23: American critics question the billions being spent on expensive systems, ... many of the high-end weapons will be quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective. ◆ Taiwan needs lots of asymmetric mobile defense weapons.
Taiwan's weapons	Taiwan has been developing some military planes, ships ... udn.com/news/story/7338/6254658?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2 ◆ Forbes 2021-4-19: for AIDC, is it worth it to spend extra billions on planes that might get blown up on the ground five minutes after war breaks out?

◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-3-13: the U.S. should immediately and dramatically expand the sale of high-quality anti-air and anti-sea missile, radar, and other defensive systems to Taiwan... a well-armed Taiwan might well defeat a Chinese invasion ◆ Hong Kong Free Press, 2022-3-12: Taiwan has significant problems, ranging from the state of the military to the extremely brief conscription term (4 months, by contrast, South Korea and Singapore, at least 18 months long) to the paucity of civil defence programs ◆ Breaking Defense, 2022-3-11: Until recently, President Tsai has appeared reluctant to discuss how Taiwanese citizens can help defend their country... the Taiwanese people must understand that a US-led coalition can only come to their aid if Taiwan can hold out for an extended period of time ◆ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence ◆ Washington Post, 2022-3-4: Taiwan's leaders try to calm fears over Ukraine invasion, but citizens worry their island will be next ◆ WSJ, 2022-3-2: many military analysts assume the U.S. would directly intervene to fight on Taiwan's side ◆ New York Times, 2022-2-23: With some seeing parallels to Ukraine, Taiwan steps up its defenses

How many Taiwanese soldiers to fight China's PLA ??

abc news,2022-9-5(abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/military-reserves-civil-defense-worry-taiwan-china-looms-89335261);
Taipei Times, 2022-9-12 (taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2022/09/12/2003785178)

The number of combat-ready reservists — those who could immediately join frontline battles — is only about 300,000

The Defense Post, 2022-5-30

Taiwan has only been able to train 120,000 reservists per year.
The country is seeking to increase its annual training capacity to 260,000 reservists
　

PS: Yahoo Taiwan, 2020-10-23: Taiwan Defense Minister: 260,000 reservists and 186,000 active force are main force to fight PLA in the first place.

PS: Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces—while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: ...Taiwan ... politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular

PS2: CNN, 2022-6-1: Taiwan has about 150,000 troops and 2.5 million reservists (NY Times, May 18,'17: reservists exist in name only)

How many Chinese soldiers to attack Taiwan ??

♣CNN, 2022-6-1

over 1.2 million soldiers

♣Forbes, 2021-7-26

the PLA might have to send over two million troops -
The likely scale and violence of a Chinese assault on Taiwan “defies human comprehension”, The cross-strait conflict would be “the ultra mega”

♣Financial Times,10-6-2020

one million

♣Daily Express, 2022-5-30

China has two million soldiers (and least 500,000 in reserve).
ps: Global Times, 6-8-2020 : 660 millions of Chinese can join the army

The west advices the number of Taiwan's reservists to fight China
a million	Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020	Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists
a million	Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020	Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles
more than a million	US Army University Press Military Review, Sept-Oct, 2020	Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity
2.3 millions	Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020	2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group... a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training. Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA
2~3.8 millions	New York times, 5-18-2017	The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists 。 Wikipedia, May 2020: reserves reportedly total 3,870,000. )
2.5 millions	Asia Times, 12-28-2020
2 millions	Wall Street Journal, 2-5-2021	Finnish army proportion
2 millions	Wall Street Journal, 2021-7-22	Calling up reserves could multiply the size of Taiwan’s active-duty military of under 200,000 by a factor of 10.
every military age man [and] woman is armed	Politico, 2022-5-19
military training to all men ( and why not women, too? )	Economist, 2022-4-23

◆ CNN, 2022-2-3: China's leaders may be watching Ukraine with an eye on Taiwan ◆ WSJ, 2022-2-13: Ukraine is a distraction from Taiwan ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2022-2-1: the United States is on track to lose a war over Taiwan. The US needs Battle Force 2025. ◆ Nikkei (Japan), 2022-1-31: China eyes 'armed unification' with Taiwan by 2027: key academic ◆ Guardian, NPR, 2022-1-28: China's ambassador to US warns of possible military conflict over Taiwan ◆ New York Times, 2022-1-25: China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States. ◆ Washington Post, 2022-1-24: Defending Taiwan is a worthy goal. But are we ready for heavy casualties? it would be a grave mistake for the United States to promise to defend Taiwan without preparing its public — and its soldiers — for the tough fight they could face ◆ New York Post, 2022-1-21: Rep. Michael McCaul predicts Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Winter Olympics ◆ full text cyber-links

What Should The US Do If China Invades Taiwan ? TIPP Poll 2022-3-2 ~ 3-4, 1318 adults, online survey
	come to defense of Taiwan directly via MILITARY action	economic sanctions	combination of military action and economic sanctions	allow China to take Taiwan	not sure
overall	14%	27%	23%	6%	29%
Democrats	15	33	22	6	24
Republicans	16	27	27	n/a	25
Independents	11	22	24	9	34
Conservatives	17	27	28	6	21
Moderates	12	26	19	6	36
Liberals	15%	32%	25%	5%	22%
19fortyfive.com/2022/04/a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-what-response-would-americans-support/ TIPP Insights

Will the US defend Taiwan ??

⊙ NY Times, , 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low
⊙Breaking Defense, 2022-3-11: Until recently, President Tsai has appeared reluctant to discuss how Taiwanese citizens can help defend their country...
⊙Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19 : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

The US won't

The US will

◆ Times (UK), 2021-12-10: The US won't fight to save Taiwan or Ukraine
◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-03-10: The Biden administration may have encouraged China further when the White House walked back Biden’s off-the-cuff commitment that the U.S. would defend Taiwan.
◆ Washington Post, 2022-3-9, Politico, 3-15-2021:Trump indicated (in 2019) America might not come to Taipei’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion，"If they invade, there isn’t a f---ing thing we can do about it."
◆ ABC News, 2022-3-14: "Taiwan is a major interest of the US but a core interest of China... The loss of Taiwan will cause a complete overthrow of the Chinese regime. Thus, China will fight to win or die, but the US will not."

◆ FoxNews, 2021-11-17: Hannity: "Basically his weakness guarantees Taiwan will be taken over by the Communist Chinese and Joe won't do a thing."
◆ washington post, 2021-10-15: The United States does not want war with China over Taiwan
◆ Bloomberg, 3-14-2021: the US will intervene. What reason is there to believe that the United States will sacrifice the lives of its own children to defend Taiwan?
◆ FoxNews, 2021-8-21:Newt Gingrich: After Afghanistan debacle, Biden ‘can't possibly protect’ Taiwan

◆ CNN, 2021-10-15 : Biden has also been determined to keep the US out of foreign conflicts.
◆ Washington Post, 2021-10-11 : The problem is: We must have both the force with which to deter the Chinese and the legal authority to employ it. And right now, we do not...Under the War Powers and Taiwan Relations acts, the president has no legal authority, without the express authorization of Congress, to use military force to defend Taiwan...The legal limitations on a president’s ability to respond quickly could all but ensure a Chinese fait accompli. Simply put: The president has no legal authority to react in the time necessary to repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and deter an all-out war.
◆ Reuters, 2020-12-10: Newsham says “How do you defend Taiwan? All I can hear is that the United States will intervene,” ... “What reason is there to believe that the United States will sacrifice the lives of its own children to defend Taiwan?”
◆ breaking defense, 2022-3-11:“With the PLA [People’s Liberation Army]’s significant and capable counter-intervention capabilities, the Taiwanese people must understand that a US-led coalition can only come to their aid if Taiwan can hold out for an extended period of time, regardless of a security commitment,” Kanapathy added.
◆ Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning
◆ Foreign Policy, 2021-4-5: Taipei can't rely on a guarantee of U.S. aid◦
◆ N.Y. Times ,8-30-2020: "Taiwan cannot count on US as a matter of strategy"
◆ Economist , 8-30-2020: "The island cannot rely on American help".
◆ The Hill, 2020-8-25: Biden apparently believes the TRA constricted the president’s inherent powers when applied to Taiwan as a U.S. national security concern. In the event of a sudden attack by China on Taiwan, consultation with Congress prior to responding would cause disastrous delay, allowing China to overrun Taiwan.
◆ Global Times (China), 2021-8-18: The US failed in all its main post-WWII wars in Asia..To maintain the illusion that the US will continue backing the island will finally exhaust Washington as time goes on. Therefore, the US will eventually have to accept the reunification of the mainland and the island of Taiwan...If the US wants to change that new status quo through a war, it will have to bet its national fate. Washington has no reason to do so.
◆ SCMP (Hong Kong), 2022-04-11: "almost Zero" chance US would send troops to defend Taiwan if mainland China attacked...

◆ DW (Germany), 2022-2-28: Nachman says "The US would likely intervene if Taiwan is attacked by China,"...Analyst Glaser says that the US would likely intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan unprovoked.

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-3-2: many military analysts assume the U.S. would directly intervene to fight on Taiwan's side

◆ Nippon (Japan), 2022-3-24: Were China to launch an armed attack on Taiwan at this time, the PLA could face a grueling and costly battle on multiple fronts, with the US military springing to the island's defense...

◆ Guardian, 2021-10-5 :The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war. The best that could be hoped for would be a pyrrhic victory in which we are saddled with becoming the permanent defense force for Taiwan (costing us hundreds of billions a year and the equally permanent requirement to be ready for the inevitable Chinese counter-attack).

◆ Brookings.edu , 2021-10-27

“Devise and implement a defense strategy capable of defending the first-island-chain nations, including Taiwan.” This could be understood as meaning that the United States itself would take direct military action to defend Taiwan, instead of just helping Taiwan to defend itself.

◆ Guardian, 2022-1-14: fear of war dips in Taiwan despite rise in US-China tensions over island; Taiwan professor: Taiwanese were perhaps not aware of the reality ◆ Business Insider, 2022-1-1: China's special-operations forces are Taiwan's real problem. In the first phase of an attack, Taiwan would be pulverized by thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles , eliminating its air defenses, hitting runways, and knocking out key communications nodes. ◆ France24, NY Post, Daily Mail(UK), 2021-12-30: China warns US will pay 'unbearable price' for backing Taiwan ◆ Washington Post, 2021-12-23: assistant secretary of defense suggested that Taiwan must not ever reunify with China. Do Americans really wish to risk war with other great powers, ...If the answer is no, the US should halt the expansionist drift of its post-Cold War policies. ◆ Reuters, 2021-12-20: Chinese spies have penetrated Taiwan's military, Even the security detail of President Tsai Ing-wen has been compromised ◆ Hill, 2021-12-20: China could obliterate Taiwan. It could seize Taiwan's tiny islands ... impose an embargo... And it could attempt regime change... ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2021-12-13: The Growing Danger of U.S. Ambiguity on Taiwan: Biden Must Make America’s Commitment Clear to China—and the World ◆ NY Times, 2021-12-10: As China has built up its military presence, the U.S. has sought to widen its alliances in the region. A major potential flash point is Taiwan ◆ Times (UK), 2021-12-10: The US won't fight to save Taiwan or Ukraine ◆ Bloomberg, 2021-12-7: War With Taiwan Would Be a Huge Gamble for China's Xi. Deaths, economic sanctions and possible defeat are all deterrents ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2021-12-5: US defence chief warns of China ‘rehearsals’ for attack on Taiwan; Lloyd Austin cites concern over scale and frequency of Beijing’s military sorties ◆ full text cyber-links


US VS Taiwan
Taiwan's strategy & US criticism		US strategy for Taiwan & Taiwan's criticism
◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2021-11-18: Taiwan's military seems to be taking its defense preparations less and less seriously; Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all... The ministry is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army. 　 But diesel submarines, F-16 jets, M1A2 tanks, and Paladins take a long time to build and field, and Taiwan lacks the surveillance and targeting capabilities needed to accurately strike distant targets. warontherocks.com/2021/11/taiwans-defense-plans-are-going-off-the-rails/ 　 ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2021-12-6: Taipei is not serious about its own security and instead just wants to free-ride on American troops' lives. Taipei has taken the opposite approach. Its operational planning and acquisitions focus on a relatively small number of high-tech, high-value capabilities — platforms that will quickly be destroyed in the opening salvo of a China-Taiwan war	◆	◆ NBC news, 2021-7-10: a significant military imbalance between China and Taiwan – increases the possibility and temptation for war. Taiwan must rapidly strengthen near-term combat capabilities and defense readiness based on asymmetric warfare nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386 　 ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2021-12-6: The U.S. government currently believes that Taiwan's best chance for survival is in a “porcupine strategy” of asymmetric defense. Taiwan claims it must expend significant political capital and effort to convince its population to fight a prolonged war of attrition. Asking the Taiwanese people to prepare for a long and bloody war of attrition — one that might become a fool's errand if the US ultimately decides to stay on the sidelines. warontherocks.com/2021/12/the-counter-intuitive-sensibility-of-taiwans-new-defense-strategy/ 　 ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2021-11-18: Voters will not support dramatic measures like conscription or a massive increase in defense spending unless they think the threat is real, but telling voters that the threat is real will cause them to panic and will cost votes. ◆ China Times, 2021-10-26: the urban (guerrilla) warfare by the reservist-forces will turns the cities into ruins and causes a large number of civilian casualties, and all resources must be invested in order to establish a truly effective asymmetric combat power. The army has to spend 10 to 20 years on learning the new warfare. chinatimes.com/opinion/20211025000040-262110?chdtv羅慶生

US VS China
China's strategy		US strategy
◆ Nikkei (Japan), 2022-1-31: ... keeping U.S. naval vessels out of the waters around China -- and thus refining its ability to launch missile attacks against American forces there...the PLA can defeat any U.S. force within 1,000 nautical miles of the coastline." asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/China-eyes-armed-unification-with-Taiwan-by-2027-key-academic ◆ Barrons, 2022-1-28: barrons.com/articles/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-russian-invasion-china-51643385156 ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-1-26: ... policy has emphasized “soft” economic inducements as much as “hard” diplomatic and military pressure to increase influence over Taiwan. warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together/		◆ Washington Post, 2022-1-24: It tends toward descriptions of long-range air and naval campaigns in which stealthy submarines, fighter jets and cruise missiles use American satellites and intelligence resources to defeat an invading Chinese force... But the PLA is not the Iraqi military. 　 ... without forces that have been placed in advance on the island, ... the defense of the island could be the bloodiest conflict the United States has experienced since Vietnam... 　 Some hawks are keen to galvanize public support for firm assurances to defend Taiwan washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/01/24/taiwan-defense-hawks-cost/

◆ Reuters, 2021-12-3: Blinken says any move by China to invade Taiwan would have 'terrible consequences' ◆ NY Times, 2021-11-29: China is developing advanced weapons, leading U.S. officials to push for the first nuclear talks ◆ CFR.org, 2021-11-23: Does Taiwan Have the Right of Self-Defense? it would hinge on its international legal status and the circumstances of the hostilities ◆ The Hill, 2021-11-22: as things currently stand, the U.S. can't deter Beijing ◆ WSJ, 2021-11-17: Beijing’s arms buildup and menacing of Taiwan make U.S. directionlessness dangerous for the world. Rather than risk a less feckless president after Mr. Biden, Mr. Xi may feel he has three years to act. ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2021-11-18: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has abandoned asymmetric defense reform, Washington ought to step in to get Taiwanese defense reform back on track ◆ FoxNews, 2021-11-17: Hannity: China 'bullies' Biden in meeting, "Basically his weakness guarantees Taiwan will be taken over by the Communist Chinese and Joe won't do a thing."◆ NY Times, 2021-11-15: Biden and Xi meet amid tensions in an effort to keep “communication lines open” and avoid military action — American officials remain concerned that the chances of avoiding conflict may be diminishing. ◆ CBS, 2021-11-16: Biden's virtual summit with China's Xi focuses on "managing strategic risks" like Taiwan...while there had been no major breakthroughs ◆ full text
　

Taiwanese fear of war, rise in US-China tensions Guardian, 2020-1-14 theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/fear-war-dips-in-taiwan-despite-us-china-tensions-poll
Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of NCCU:	Taiwanese were perhaps not aware of the reality
a survey in May 2021	of 1,000 residents found more than 57% did worry that war was a distinct possibility, shared across party lines and age demographics
a poll, by Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine, 2022-1-13	35.4% were worried about a military conflict within the next year
	59.7% do not think Beijing will ultimately use force to take Taiwan, 35+% believed it would.
	58.8% the US possibly would send troops to help Taiwan in the event of war.
	aged 40- hold a more favourable view of the US. Those older were more concerned about the prospect of war.

Taiwanese people were asked if they agreed that "There will be war between China and Taiwan eventually" / BBC, 2022-1-12, source: Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, research at Oct. 2021
strongly agree	7%	strongly disagree	23.7%
partly agree	21.1%	don't know/no opinion	7.6%
partly disagree	40.6%	news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

◆ The Guardian, 2021-11-16: Biden-Xi virtual summit: leaders warn each other over future of Taiwan ...the US is increasingly nervous about the rapid development of Chinese conventional and nuclear military forces. ◆ Reuters, 2021-11-11: U.S. and allies would 'take unspecified action' if Taiwan attacked - Blinken ◆ New York Times, 2021-11-10: Europe’s economic interests in China are huge, and the focus on Taiwan is still a minority effort. Europe is both reluctant and badly equipped to get involved militarily in the Indo-Pacific in the face of Washington’s intense focus on deterring China from attacking Taiwan. ◆ TIME, 2021-11-3: The U.S. Risks Catastrophe if It Doesn't Clarify Its Taiwan Strategy ◆ Brookings, 2021-11-1: the asymmetric approach has been stretched beyond recognition in recent years by a recalcitrant MND ◆Hill, 2021-11-1: Now there is real danger that, encouraged by Biden's recent shift toward a more conciliatory approach toward China, Xi will move against Taiwan ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2021-10-27:The Fight for Taiwan Could Come Soon

Chinese and Taiwanese armed forces / BBC, 2022-1-12, source: TrendForce 2021
	China	Taiwan
Active duty personnel	2,035,000	163,000
Ground Force	965,000	88,000
Navy	260,000	40,000
Air Force	395,000	35,000
Strategic missile Forces	120,000	0
Strategic Support Force	145,000	0
Other Forces	150,000	0
news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

Global Fire Power / globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=taiwan
	China	Taiwan
world rank	3 of 140	21 of 140

◆ Brookings, 2021-10-27: The “U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific”─ “Devise and implement a defense strategy capable of defending the first-island-chain nations, including Taiwan." could be understood as meaning that the U.S. itself would take direct military action to defend Taiwan ◆ WSJ, FoxNews, 2021-10-25: the island's military is riven with internal problems...Among the most pressing concerns are poor preparation and low morale among the roughly 80,000 Taiwanese who are conscripted each year and the nearly 2.2 million reservists. ◆ Defense Post, 2021-10-26: some military strategists have suggested that Taiwan implement a conscription system similar to Israel's ◆ New York Times, 2021-10-22: American presidents have spent decades trying to sidestep the question of how forcefully the United States would come to the aid of Taiwan if China invaded it or, more likely, tried to slowly strangle the island in an effort to force it back under the control of the mainland. ◆ Reuters 2021-10-23 : analysts dismissed the president's remark (US has a commitment to defend Taiwan) as a gaffe. it was "patently not true". "A confused US policy weakens deterrence" ◆ Daily Mail, 2021-10-22, POLITICO :Biden defies longstanding US policy by telling CNN town hall he WOULD defend Taiwan if it was attacked by China, forcing White House to issue 'clarification' contradicting president

◆ ABC News, 2021-10-17: How US-China relations continue to play out in the coming months and years will ultimately determine Taiwan's future. ◆ full text
　

pic.: No.3 "Taiwanese military"on Bing, 2022-9-22; No.2 "Taiwan military" at 2022-3-30, No.1 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 2021-6-4, 2021-6-1; No.3 "Taiwanese military" at 2022-9-10, No.3 "Taiwan military" at 2022-5-29

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on ecosia (Berlin Germany), 2021-6-5, 2021-2-7; No.2 at 2022-3-30, 2022-3-7, 2022-1-19, 2022-1-3, 2021-5-12, 2021-4-26, 2021-3-27, 2021-3-4

◆ Fox news, 2021-10-17 :War games run by the U.S. military show it’s almost impossible to stop a mass amphibious invasion by China, unless American forces and allies are already on scene. five crucial steps to deter China:1. Tripwire forces 2. Recognize Taiwan 3. Speed up arms sales 4. Call out China's nuclear build-up 5. Give up the go-slow appeasement ◆ CNN, 2021-10-15 : China isn't about to invade Taiwan. But the two sides are on a dangerous path ◆ CNN, 2021-10-15 : Biden has also been determined to keep the US out of foreign conflicts. China, Taiwan tensions spark debate inside Biden admin. 2027 , a key year in which Beijing could try to take Taiwan by force if peaceful unification has not yet been achieved ◆ POLITICO, 2021-10-14 : Taiwan increasingly becomes a powder keg, a mishap or miscalculation could lead to confrontation while Chinese and American ambitions are at odds. Taiwan’s own strategy — delaying China long enough for the U.S. and its allies to show up in force.◆ Washington Post, 2021-10-11 : The problem is: We must have both the force with which to deter the Chinese and the legal authority to employ it. And right now, we do not. Congress must untie Biden’s hands on Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2021-10-11 : China: Taiwan president's speech "incites confrontation" ◆ Financial Times, 2021-10-11 : The public mood in both China and the US, which will influence the choices that the two countries’ leaders make, seems increasingly bellicose ◆ NY Times, 2021-10-9 : "starting a fire" : US and China enter dangerous territory over Taiwan... with potential to ignite military conflagration and reshape the regional order ◆ Guardian, 2021-10-10 : Joe Biden’s wavering over what to do about China’s ambitions are fuelling its president’s dangerous swaggering ◆ BBC, 2021-10-6 :China-Taiwan military tensions 'worst in 40 years' ◆ TIME, 2021-10-8 : U.S. Troops in Taiwan Add Even More Fuel to the China-U.S. Tinderbox ◆ WSJ, 2021-10-7 :U.S. Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan for at Least a Year ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2021-10-7 : US special forces secretly training Taiwan’s military; rotations had been occurring for at least a decade... the disclosure could further raise tensions. “Making this public will compel the Chinese to react ◆ Guardian, 2021-10-5 :The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war. ◆ Reuters, 2021-10-5 : experts say the island could likely only hold out for a few days in the event of a Chinese attack unless the United States quickly came to its aid ◆ CNN, 2021-10-5 : Biden says he and China's Xi agree to abide by Taiwan agreement ◆ CNN, 2021-10-5 : latest PLA flights represent the largest concentration of Chinese military aircraft ever operating that far from their home bases ◆ war news cyber-links

◆ Politico, 2021-10-5 : while a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent...We should think of China’s approach to Taiwan not as a bifurcated decision between war and peace but instead a continuous pressure campaign that can take various lethal and non-lethal forms ◆ New York Times, 2021-10-3 : Beijing sent a record number of planes near the island, ...a display of strength that underscored Chinese demands for unification ◆ Forbes, 2021-10-4 :Easton:“Deterrence could be failing already" “That indicates something big is going on.”. Beijing might initiate an aerial battle in a deliberate way. ◆ The Hill, 2021-10-4 :Taiwan preparing for possible war with China ◆ CNN, 2021-10-4 :professor in Switzerland: "As long as Taiwan doesn't take irreversible steps toward independence/greater autonomous presence on the international scene," combat is unlikely ◆ Global Times, 2021-10-4 :Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real◆ FT(UK), 2021-9-16 :Washington keeps scolding Taipei over its supposed lack of preparation against an ever mightier Beijing, Taiwan is failing to reorient its military towards an asymmetric strategy, US defence experts are growing exasperated over the Taiwan military’s reluctance to decisively act on their instructions. ◆ Guardian, 2021-9-22 : a four months basic training course ... is often derided as a “summer camp”... the military at large has also been described as dysfunctional and “in crisis”◆ WSJ, 2021-9-16 :deterring China from a catastrophic invasion of Taiwan must be the Biden administration's principal national security objective◆ New York Times, 2021-9-13 : if China has any hope of winning a war across the Strait, its military would have to move fast, before the United States has time to respond... the Chinese economy would suffer more ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2021-9-10 : Will Xi move on Taiwan? History warns he might◆ Guardian, 2021-9-6 :There is growing speculation over the likelihood of Beijing, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, deciding to move on Taiwan ... general consensus that the risk is higher now than it has been for decades ◆ TIME, 2021-9-3 : In the case of conflict, China’s best chance of success would be a quick knockout before the U.S. can rally to Taiwan’s aid. An initial cyber and electronic blitzkrieg could be mounted against Taiwan’s financial system and key infrastructure, as well as U.S. military communications... blockade Taiwan’s coast ◆ Reuters, 2021-9-1 :Taiwan says China can 'paralyse' its defences, threat worsening ◆ VOA, 2021-8-28 : Survey: Most Americans Support Defending Taiwan if China Invades ◆ Financial Times, 2021-8-23: Anti-Beijing sentiment is growing but the government has done little to prepare the public for war...The majority of Taiwanese do not believe there will be conflict with China...Taiwan is avoiding ‘the underlying reality ◆ Taiwan battle CovID-19 outbreak ◆ war news cyber-links

◆ WSJ, 2021-8-23: Will America Fight to Save Taiwan? Will the Taiwanese? President Xi Jinping may decide the time has come to eliminate that troubling democracy in Taiwan◆ Politico, 2021-8-19:The fundamental challenge to the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is the growing tension between maintaining bilateral strategic stability with China and fighting China over Taiwan in a violent military conflict that has every potential to escalate into an all-out major power war ◆ FoxNews, 2021-8-21:Newt Gingrich: After Afghanistan debacle, Biden ‘can’t possibly protect’ Taiwan ◆ CNBC, 2021-8-19: President Joe Biden will likely remain ambiguous about whether it will defend Taiwan if Beijing uses force against the island ◆ FoxBusiness, 2021-8-19: China’s Xi Jinping is forecasting he will invade Taiwan, the US better listen◆ Reuters, 2021-8-19: President Joe Biden appeared to suggest the United States would defend the island if it were attacked ◆ Global Times, 2021-8-16: Afghanistan today, Taiwan tomorrow ? US treachery scares Taiwan DPP ◆ Defense One, 2021-8-18: Taiwan proposed sale is stark proof that far from undertaking long overdue defense reforms with a sense of existential urgency, Taiwan is acting like it is business as usual. American analysts and think tanks have instead tried to get Taiwan to adopt an asymmetric force posture —weapons like drones, coastal defense missiles, naval mines, portable air defenses, and mobile ground forces. ◆ National Review, 2021-8-18:Asia-watchers are understandably concerned that a Chinese invasion has rapidly become more likely ◆ Global Times, 2021-8-18: the US completely unsure of a victory in a cross-Straits war. In fact, the US military and academic communities are pessimistic about the result of a cross-Straits war ◆ New York Times, 2021-8-5: Xi vowed it would be accomplished by 2049, the year marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It would undo the hundred years of national humiliation China had been subjected to by foreign powers. “Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow” had turned from a chant to a harbinger ◆ Washington Post, 2021-7-21:The risk of a war over Taiwan is growing ◆ Forbes, 2021-7-26:The likely scale and violence of a Chinese assault on Taiwan “defies human comprehension”, The cross-strait conflict would be “the ultra mega”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2021-7-22:The best way to forestall a catastrophic Chinese invasion of Taiwan is to raise the costs for Beijing. A new American legislative proposal aims to bolster Taiwan’s deterrence by improving the island’s ability to call up its (2 millions) reserve forces in case of an invasion ◆ New York Times, 2021-7-13: Japan, while still wary of being drawn into the rivalry between the United States and China, ...as Washington and Beijing have ramped up both their rhetoric and military presence around Taiwan, Japanese white paper warned that China’s rapid expansion of its military threatened to ... undermine peace in the region ◆ Taiwan battle CovID-19 outbreak ◆ war news cyber-links

◆ Global Times (China), 2021-8-12: We have repeatedly warned that if the US and the island of Taiwan cross the red line, the PLA fighter jets will fly over the island ◆ Reuters, CNN, 2021-7-13: Japan warns of crisis over Taiwan, growing risks from U.S.-China rivalry ◆ NBC news, 2021-7-10: The Chinese military has already begun gray zone operations. An all-out attack on Taiwan looms if Beijing continues to escalate... it is impossible to accurately predict when China might attempt a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. Given the complexities involved, even Xi may not have a definitive timeline ◆ Washington Examiner, Yahoo, 2021-7-7: China's Taiwan ambitions could drag Japan and US into war with Asian power◆ Nikkei Asia, 2021-7-7: Kurt Campbell: US does not support Taiwan independence ◆ CNN, 2021-7-5: As Beijing steps up its military propaganda and warns Taiwan to "prepare for war," experts say the bigger threat to the island and western democracies is the large-scale cyberattacks that could potentially paralyze physical infrastructure and business simultaneously ◆ Washington Post, 2021-7-2: ‘Strategic ambiguity’ is no longer a prudent U.S. policy on Taiwan ◆ Foxnews, 2021-7-1: China’s Xi warns Taiwan on independence, sends message to West ◆ USNI, 2021-6-23: Milley: China Wants Capability to Take Taiwan by 2027◆ Financial Times (UK), 2021-6-18:Top US general Mark Milley dismisses warnings of imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◆ Washington Post, 2021-6-17: the world’s top democracies were less vocal about the ever-increasing Chinese threats to Taiwan...Lawmakers increasingly believe, he said, that Beijing is moving toward compelling reunification, perhaps not through military invasion, but through various other coercive and covert means ◆ Chn-TW war news cyber-links

◆ New York Times, 2021-6-16: how deeply entrenched the long-running conflict across the Taiwan Strait has become, with a degree of mutual distrust that not even a global medical emergency can allay ◆ Sunday Guardian (UK), 2021-6-19: Instead of invasion, China is trying soft power action, including cyber warfare, psychological warfare, media warfare by penetrating Taiwan to influence, mislead and divide the population◆ Business Insider, 2021-6-16:"Joint Blockade Campaign"...Taiwan could quickly run out of both military and non-military necessities◆ Wall Street Journal, 2021-6-7: U.S., Taiwan to Launch Trade Talks...risks aggravating tensions with China◆ Foreign Affairs, 2021-6-3: Washington would need to persuade a large coalition of allies to commit to a coordinated economic, political, and military response to any Chinese aggression. And that, unfortunately, remains a remote possibility ◆ New York Times, 2021-5-5: The more the United States and Taiwan formally close the door on reunification, the more likely Beijing is to seek reunification by force ◆ Financial Times, 2021-5-5:Washington shies away from open declaration to defend Taiwan ◆ NBC, 2021-5-5:Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat as U.S. warns of invasion ◆ Economist, 2021-5-1: Taiwan - The most dangerous place on Earth. America and China must work harder to avoid war over the future of Taiwan◆ Economist, 2021-5-1: All-out conflict may not feel imminent, but nor is it unthinkable ◆ Brookings, 2021-4-28: Now, the government... need to develop a better integrated, asymmetric strategy for protecting Taiwan ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2021-4-28: Glaser: for the declining power, the best option may be ... letting go of Taiwan, and accepting that the U.S. is no longer the dominant power it once was in the region ◆ Forbes, 2021-4-26: ...Beijing with growing reason to doubt the credibility of the U.S. deterrence message,” RAND’s experts ◆ National Interest, 2021-4-26: Beijing could use a blockade to slowly strangle Taiwan into submission while avoiding or overcoming any realistic American military response ◆ Guardian, Reuters, 2021-4-25: Australian defence minister says conflict over Taiwan involving China ‘should not be discounted' ◆ WSJ, 2021-4-22: U.S. Concerns About Taiwan Put Focus on Island’s Defensive Weakness ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2021-4-22: now that Taiwan has usurped North Korea's dubious honor as Asia's top geopolitical flashpoint ◆ FoxNews, Washington Examiner 2021-4-20: Trump said China is testing Biden’s resolve about protecting Taiwan...It looks very serious, going on with Taiwan ◆ Australia NEWS, 2021-4-19: China declares war is preferable over closer Taiwan-US ties; An expert has warned the risk of a full-scale war is increasing which an Aussie general says would be “disastrous” ◆ Reuters, 2021-4-17: US.-Japan statement refers to "peace and stability in Taiwan Strait" ◆ war news cyber-links

◆ Le Monde (France), 2021-4-16: parmi leurs nombreux différends, la question taïwanaise est la plus sensible. C’est celle qui présente le plus grand risque de déboucher sur un conflit armé◆ Washington Post, 2021-4-15: The confrontation with China over Taiwan approaches. The U.S. must make its position clear ◆ Bloomberg, 2021-4-15:Taiwan should raise defense spending and get more serious about training its soldiers ◆ Foreign Policy's China Brief, 2021-4-14: The chance of actual Chinese invasion still remains small ◆ Bloomberg, 2021-4-11: Blinken Warns China on Taiwan Encroachment, Russia on Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2021-4-9: "military conflicts often seem unlikely until the moment they begin", The Atlantic : a Chinese invasion “could happen at any moment” and that Biden should be prepared ◆ New York Times, 2021-4-8: the Biden administration might manage to deter China without provoking it through more forceful warnings that stop short of an explicit promise to defend Taiwan◆ NPR(USA), 2021-4-8: the people of Taiwan already are sober to the risks of pursuing independence. Don't Help China By Hyping Risk Of War Over Taiwan ◆ Newsweek, 2021-4-8: U.S. Can 'Resist' Chinese Force or Coercion Against Taiwan: State Department ◆ Reuters, 2021-4-7: Taiwan says will fight to the end if China attacks... "they (the US) clearly see the danger of the possibility of China launching an attack against Taiwan" ◆ Foreign Policy, 2021-4-5: the state of Taiwan’s own forces does not bode well. If Chinese forces actually land, ... This would require well-trained conscripts and a reserve force—both major problems for Taiwan right now . The government has adamantly refused to expand the length of conscription, which is only four months, or to draft women ◆ DW (Germany), 2021-4-5: Taiwan's army 'ill-prepared' for potential Chinese attack ◆ Bloomberg, 2021-4-1: The U.S. also makes no iron-clad guarantees it will come to Taiwan’s defense if China makes good on threats to invade, only agreeing to help the separately ruled economy maintain its capacity for self defense ◆ National Review, Yahoo, 2021-4-2: Beijing knows that the U.S. can impose heavy costs on the PLA, but if it sees a possibility of success, it is likely to act nonetheless ◆ CNN, 2021-3-27: China is about to become a nation with a full nuclear triad, US needs to field weapons and capabilities to deter China "in the near term and with urgency." ◆ Japan Times, 2021-3-28: Will the U.S. end its ambiguity over Taiwan? Aquilino's answer was ominously ambiguous ◆ NBC, 2021-3-27: A war over Taiwan remains a worst-case scenario that officials say is not imminent. China's growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan; Taiwan needs lower-tech weapons (mines, drones and mobile anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles) to fend off a potential Chinese invasion, and that big-ticket items like fighter jets and Patriot missiles (they've invested a lot of money in) are going to die in the first few hours of the war ◆ war news cyber-links
◆◆

◆ Will Japan defend Taiwan ??

brief
◆ Voice of America, 2021-4-24: officials in Tokyo reportedly clarified that Japan would not send troops but could offer logistical support to the United States in the event of a conflict.

◆ SCMP(HK), 2021-4-21: Japan troops won’t get involved if China invades Taiwan, PM Yoshihide Suga says

◆ The Hill , 2021-4-20: Japan shies away from joining with the United States in an open commitment to resist Chinese aggression. The joint ambiguity simply encourages Beijing to keep pushing the military envelope — with a strategic miscalculation or accident just waiting to happen
◆ Japan Times, Kyodo News, 2021-4-25: Under the security laws, the SDF could provide transport and supply operations and related logistics support to the U.S. military and partners in the first scenario, while Japan would be allowed to practice collective self-defense in the second scenario. If a conflict expanded to a direct attack on Japanese soil, such as on the Yonaguni or Senkaku islands in Okinawa — the latter of which China claims and calls Diaoyu — the SDF would be mobilized to defend Japan and engage in combat operations.

◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2021-4-18: For Biden wanting to take a stand on China and Suga not wanting to burn all bridges with Beijing, the US-Japan joint statement used bland language devoid of "adjectives and adverbs.", shunned more specific language like 'defend Taiwan' to avoid unnecessarily provoking China" ...

◆ Global Times (China) , 2021-4-24: Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said that the Japan-US joint statement "does not presuppose military involvement at all." I believe this is wise.

◆ 読売新聞(Yomiuri Japan), 2021-4-18: 台湾有事が勃発すれば、米軍は台湾防衛のために反撃すると考えられる。この場合、まず想定されるのは; 在日米軍基地を含む日本への武力攻撃が発生したか、発生する「明白な危険が切迫している」場合は、政府は「武力攻撃事態」に認定し、個別的自衛権に基づく武力行使で反撃することが可能だ。yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20210417-OYT1T50374/
opinion: Taiwanese government should maintain a large-scale conscription system, conduct longer-term military training for reservists, draft women, and to buy asymmetric and high-tech weapons needed from the US, and most important, to give up animosity and to engage in meaningful dialogue with mainland China to find a way both side feel comfortable.

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(中文版 Chinese)
　

★ pic.: No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2022-1-1, 2021-10-8

★ pic.: No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Google, 2022-3-3, 2022-1-3, 2021-10-9, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-7, 2021-8-31, 2021-8-23

★ pic.: No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Google, 2022-1-1, 2021-10-8, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-7, 2021-8-31, 2021-8-23

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on SwissCows (Switzerland), 2021-6-5, 2021-5-12, 2021-3-27, 2021-3-4, 2021-2-7

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 2021-6-1, 2-7-2021, 1-11-2021, 1-1-2021, 12-15-2020, 12-2-2020, 11-20-2020, 10-28-2020N; No.2 at 2022-3-30, 2021-5-12, 2021-4-30, 2021-4-26, 2021-4-18, 3-27-2021, 3-5-2021

◆ ◆

Taiwanese military

◆

Taiwan military vs. China military

assessments

● N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat / ...Taiwan ... politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular
● NY Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan's defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...

● L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the opposite direction: It cut the size of its regular army and reduced the training of its reserves.
● Breaking Defense, 2022-3-11: Until recently, President Tsai has appeared reluctant to discuss how Taiwanese citizens can help defend their country... the Taiwanese people must understand that a US-led coalition can only come to their aid if Taiwan can hold out for an extended period of time
● Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese, seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.... Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities...(brief)
● Washington Post, 2022-1-25: Taiwanese military has limited-to-no experience.

● WSJ, FoxNews, 2021-10-25: the island's military is riven with internal problems...Among the most pressing concerns are poor preparation and low morale among the roughly 80,000 Taiwanese who are conscripted each year and the nearly 2.2 million reservists. foxnews.com/world/taiwans-military-against-china-us-military
　

Military balance across Taiwan Strait 2020, Economist, 2021-5-1

　 China Taiwan

Ground-force personnel 1,030,000 88,000

tanks 6,300 800

warships 131 26

military aircrafts 2,500 460

source: US dept of Defense, SIPRI

● Foreign Policy, 2021-4-5: the state of Taiwan’s own forces does not bode well. If Chinese forces actually land, ... This would require well-trained conscripts and a reserve force—both major problems for Taiwan right now . The government has adamantly refused to expand the length of conscription, which is only four months, or to draft women foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/05/taiwan-covid-19-success-china-military-threat/
● DW (Germany), 2021-4-5: Taiwan's army 'ill-prepared' for potential Chinese attack dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659

● Weekend Australian, 2021-5-8: Taiwan has not done enough to make itself an unbearably costly prize. theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/thinking-the-unthinkable-about-china-and-taiwan-is-part-of-deterrence/news-story/0eee328f13d7864fe702a27faacbe2e5

● NBC, 2021-3-27: Taiwan needs lower-tech weapons (mines, drones and mobile anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles) to fend off a potential Chinese invasion, and that big-ticket items like fighter jets and Patriot missiles (they've invested a lot of money in) are going to die in the first few hours of the war nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-s-growing-firepower-casts-doubt-whether-u-s-could-n1262148

● Bloomberg, 3-14-2021: Taipei’s current capabilities do not offer a credible deterrent to a surprise assault from the mainland

● Diplomat, 3-20-2021:Taiwan’s government, however, has met entrenched opposition to these reforms from some senior commanders. Moreover, military effectiveness is limited by unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/
● Economist, 2021-5-1:Taiwan must start to devote fewer resources to big, expensive weapons systems that are vulnerable to Chinese missiles and more to tactics and technologies that would frustrate an invasion. economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth
● Forbes, 3-8-2021:Taiwan Aims To Sink Half Of A Chinese Invasion Fleet—It Could Take Years To Buy Enough Missiles

● DefenseNewss , 3-1-2021: Taiwan’s military is not yet “optimally manned, trained, equipped and motivated to defend against an attack” by China...efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers ( symmetric response, expensive and high-end platforms are limited utility in an actual conflict, they also against full conscription ) and a lack of time (weapons acquisition and development plans years away from delivery). the current administration seemingly “unwilling or unable” to compel the ministry to implement it, partly due politically sensitive moves, such as full conscription.
defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/03/01/whats-preventing-taiwan-from-preparing-for-potential-war/

● Diplomat , 2-26-2021: evolution of Taiwan’s military was being hindered by bureaucracy and inefficient procedures.
The army’s military preparedness has come into question from both domestic and international experts
● Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says
● Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Taiwan needs huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines; developing an army that can surge
tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles.
it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.
With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have
● New York times, 8-30-2020: Taiwan's Lawmaker said Taiwan’s military needs to improve a lot
● Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military

personnel

( soldiers, officials )

◆ Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell. US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system.
◆ armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers
◆ few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled / Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/
◆ Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... / New York times, 5-18-2017
◆ Any political party advocating full conscription will loss election (youngsters refuse to join the army) / 寰宇全視界 2021-5-1
◆ The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000. / Wikipedia, May 2020

◆ Taiwan began to phase out mandatory conscription for all young men, which was deeply unpopular, in favor of an all-volunteer force; 4 months of compulsory service ... training is "insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat (RAND, '17) / New York times, 8-30-2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/world/asia/taiwan-china-military.html

◆ Only 310 thousands out of 770 thousands of qualified reservists were called up for short-term military training, from 2015 to 2017, 61 thousands of those escaped the duty / Formosa TV news, 8-3-2018, storm.mg 10-15-2019
◆ only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group / Financial Times, 7-12-2020

◆ Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men. / Hong Kong Free Press 7-15-2020

◆ Reserve force is short of both officers and sergeants, their speciality far match the position / United Daily, 10-2-2020

strategy

◆ Defense News, 3-22-2021: Taiwan’s military will prioritize deep-strike capabilities ...Taiwan plans to shift its focus from being able to destroy enemy forces landing on its beaches, and instead ... annihilate an enemy at sea prior to making landfall. Taiwan’s asymmetric systems must be small, mobile, stealthy and numerous for strategic dispersion, taking advantage of the deployment of anti-ship missiles in coastal areas, rapid reaction forces and mine laying at sea defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/03/22/heres-what-to-expect-in-taiwans-new-defense-review/

◆ To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” / Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020
◆ so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only at surface-level / United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020 (ps: the US should work with Taiwan to develop asymmetric military capabilities / Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020 )

◆ a weirdo strategy: Facing PLA's attacks, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels, warships leave Taiwan, once the US military comes to Taiwan's rescue, they will return and join the war / Apple Daily, 8-14-2020 tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/

firepower

◆ Defense One, 2021-3-24: More missiles will not guarantee Taiwan’s survival by themselves. Taiwan must still prioritize urgent reforms of its ground, air, and naval defenses. But helping Taiwan acquire a much larger inventory of ground-based, short-range missiles is a realistic and relatively quick way to improve cross-Strait deterrence

◆ France forced Taiwan to withdraw its request to upgrade 20-year-old Mirage fighters ... F-16 A/B and F-CK-1 fighters are growing tired; 60 or 70 new fighters and a few missiles won’t really change the balance of power. And heavy tanks – especially if they lack trained crews – won’t do much to stop a Chinese invasion / Forbes, 8-30-2020
◆ A whole lot of Taiwan’s weapons don’t work. / Forbes, 9-4-2020 forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/04/which-of-taiwans-old-weapons-still-work/#340d2ee156a2
◆ only 30% of Taiwan's tanks are in running condition with functional weapons. / Business Insider, 10-9-2020

◆ China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ... Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out. / Economist,10-9-2020

◆ the PLA could, without invading, destroy Taiwanese military, power and telecom facilities, embargo oil imports, cut cyber connectivity, then take advantage of the psychological impact on Taiwan to press for negotiations / Politico,10-8-2020

◆ Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan. / Forbes, 6-3-2020

◆ China has ｎｕｃｌｅａｒ　ｂｏｍｂ，Neutron bomb， hydrogen bomb, Taiwan has none of those. / Next TV news, 5-8-2020
◆ Three Taiwanese presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) squandering those "bonus for peace" military budget and underestimating the demand of national defense, lead to shortage of arms-deal budget. / United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020
◆ Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 , China PLA No. 3 / Global FirePower, 2020
◆ A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... / New York times, 11-4-2017

military logistics system

◆ The logistics inside the military remain so abysmal ... The army likely has no clue how many tanks or guns actually mission-capable ... / Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020

◆ only 30% of Taiwan's tanks are in running condition with functional weapons. The outdated hardware stands in stark contrast to China's massive and increasingly modern force / Business Insider, 10-9-2020

◆ Taiwan lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments / United Daily (聯合報社評), opinion, 5- 7- 2020

morale

◆ NY Times, 11-24-2020 says Taiwan's famous politician screams for help: “Taiwan can’t face the might of China alone", ”We can’t fight China on our own". in spite of Economist, NY Times, and pro-Taiwan senator advised Taiwan not to rely on the US to intervene ...
◆ “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue / Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020 https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/

◆ Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky / Economist,10-9-2020

◆ Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... / New York times, 5-18-2017
◆ Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... / Financial Times 5-19-2020

combat experience

◆ Taiwan’s army has trouble with training across the board. Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out. / Economist,10-9-2020

◆ The military combines 4 drills to one per year for battle and propaganda-show, affecting training effect , high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission. / ref to China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv 蘭寧利》; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv

discipline

◆ The practice of judicial system has proved not as good as military criminal code to educate and train the military discipline. A soldier's 洪仲丘 'torture to death" sparks massive protest around 2013, the military court was hence no longer to judge the troops . / The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial

budget

◆ Forbes, 3-8-2021: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military

◆ High personnel expense pushes aside the logistics and maintenance budget, the govt. needs to plan special budge to purchase arms. / The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial

◆ Taiwan would increase Taiwan’s defense budget by 10 percent, on top of a 5 percent increase the year before. That would raise military spending to more than 2 percent of gross domestic product / New York times, 8-30-2020

VICE, 7-24-2020: With increasing Chinese modernization, Taiwan’s advantages decline — and the numbers are telling.

To Taiwan’s 140,000 ground troops, China has 1 million. To Taiwan’s 23 Coast Guard ships, China has 248. Taiwan has no bombers, while China has 450. While Taiwan has 350 fighter jets, China has 1,500.

All in all, China’s defense budget is 17 times the size of Taiwan’s, with much of the former spent on developing the capability of unifying Taiwan with the mainland by force. The capability to do harm and the intention to do harm. China has both.

2021 Military Strength Ranking (globalfirepower.com) No.1 - No. 10 : USA, Russia, China, India, Japan, S Korea, France, UK, Brazil, Pakistan; Germany No. 15, Indonesia No. 16, Australia No. 19, Taiwan No.22

●

     Taiwan's military reform            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

聯合報, 10-22-2020
　

嚴德發：若總統下動員令第一時間作戰主力45萬人

國軍後備改革，有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示，若總統動員令一下，約26萬名後備軍人就要報到，加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員，約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力
　
　

https://udn.com/news
/story/10930/4954777
募兵
徵兵

　
◆ Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands + reservists 260 thousands (call-up training 14 days per year )   ―   enough ?

    according to Taiwanese defense minister's saying at end of 2020, it's Taiwan president Tsai's intention not to mobilize reserve in larger scale, not to expand the length of conscription (now only four months), or not to draft women.   A famous politics-talk TV program "寰宇全視界" says at 2021-5-1 that any political party advocating conscription will lose election.

　

    ￭ Express (UK), 2021-4-8: Taiwan ‘ill-prepared’ for war with China say experts – ‘Facing a gigantic military threat’ Taiwan’s Defence Minister, Mr Tsai added: "Our national security needs every young man to go to the armed forces, this is a national obligation.”Taiwan should learn from the example of South Korea, SIngapore and Israel where military service is compulsory for more than a year. express.co.uk/news/world/1419775/taiwan-army-china-ill-prepared-invasion-military-news-ont
     ￭ Taipei Times, 2021-4-12: Easton: Because the threat of invasion is increasingly credible,... Taiwan could invest in an emergency stockpiling effort, make a tenfold increase in reserve force training days taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/04/12/2003755509
      ￭ Foreign Policy, 2021-4-5: the state of Taiwan’s own forces does not bode well. If Chinese forces actually land, ... This would require well-trained conscripts and a reserve force—both major problems for Taiwan right now . The government has adamantly refused to expand the length of conscription, which is only four months, or to draft women
      ￭ Diplomat, 3-20-2021: Taiwan’s government, however, has met entrenched opposition to these reforms from some senior commanders. Moreover, military effectiveness is limited by unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/
      ￭ DW, 2021-4-5: Taiwan's army 'ill-prepared' for potential Chinese attack / young men usually complete after their studies, was shortened to four months, but ...Taiwan should take a cue from South Korea, Singapore and Israel, where military service lasts considerably more than a year... All the more reason to train reservists regularly dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659

      ￭ Defense News , 3-1-2021: efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers ( ... they also against full conscription ) and a lack of time. the current administration seemingly “unwilling or unable” to compel the ministry to implement it, partly due politically sensitive moves, such as full conscription.

      ￭ Financial Times , 2-20-2021: The US has long pushed Taipei to strengthen deterrence against a Chinese attack by bolstering its reserve force and training it to wage urban and mountain warfare should China invade. Defence experts in Washington have complained of a lack of resolve in Taipei to address the issue.   ft.com/content/51f8bfba-bd1f-4dff-af8d-1a5b477d1dc7

      ￭ Wall Street Journal, 2-5-2021: “a hard problem for the U.S.” would be much less hard if Taiwan could reliably outnumber any invading force...With 23.7 million inhabitants Taiwan should manage two million, i.e., twice the size of the entire People’s Liberation Army ground force wsj.com/articles/taiwan-could-defend-itself-more-effectively-11612563552

     ￭ Foreign Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems are another. This also means preparing the public for conflict... foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/
     ￭ Newsweek, 11-5-2020, News Australia, 11-7-2020: expert says Taiwan will need to bring back the draft in order to put up a fight. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/war-will-come-warns-beijing-after-taiwan-stocks-up-on-usmade-missiles/news-story/41a1d2b2e04e2f5e015c308b5dedd9b9

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770

      ￭ Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says    www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hongkong-taiwan-military/

     But Taiwan goes the other way and declares it will cut off the number of 2021's new-entry volunteer service soldiers from 22,000 to 12,000, according to LTN 11-7-2020. Is it a signal from Taiwan to China while pro-Taiwan Trump losing US election ? Furthermore, Taiwan only plans to mobilize about 1/10 reservists, Newsweek (10-30-2020) doubts how many reservists may come once the war breakout, because in peace time, only 70% citizens came for 7 days-per-year call-up training. By contrast, China's 北戴河 meeting set up a goal to mobilize all the people for the war.

　

Western experts'
advices:
number of reservists
western analysts

advices

a million
Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020 ￭ Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists

a million Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020 ￭ Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles

more than a million ＵＳArmy University Press
Military Review,
Sept-Oct, 2020 ￭ Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity

2.3 million Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 ￭ 2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training. Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA

2~3.8 million New York times, 5-18-2017 ￭ The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists 。 Wikipedia, May 2020: reserves reportedly total 3,870,000. )

2.5 million Asia Times, 12-28-2020 　

Financial Times (UK, 10-1-2020) reported the number of Chinese military personnel is about 2m, Taiwanese military is only 163,000. Guardian UK (6-27-2020) 、Financial Times UK (10-6-2020、10-19-2020) reported that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers or about 50% of total PLA strength ( Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to 616 millions )

Therefore, Taiwanese military should needs more than a million reservists with strict trainings. Taiwan's latest military reform plan ( mobilizing only about 1/10 reservists) starting from 2022 obviously is not good and early enough ! How does Taiwan know China will not strike before 2022 ? Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity... maybe between now and the communist party congress in 2022.”.    If Taiwan knows for sure China will not make any move on Taiwan, why Taiwan's FM calls on Australia to help prevent China War ? because Taiwan was now "very concerned" ... "the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was much higher than before" according to Newsweek 12-1-2020 and ABC Australia 12-1-2020.   Taiwan was criticized by NY Times in 2017 for relying on US military to fight China.

　

◆ Combat skills and will-power

Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’. But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan. Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky...  Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers .
　
◆ SOL: Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible    ――   Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.
　
◆ Core problem
       Taiwan's politicians like to win an election rather than win a war !!
       Diplomat, 10-3-2020: Taiwan should lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years. Such a policy, however, could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Party (DPP). Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... NCCU professor says that without America's words, Taiwan still slept there doing nothing about reservist reform (寰宇全視界, 2020). Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. however, the United States may not be up to the task. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

　
　

US weapons, good enough for Taiwan !?            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

　　


     Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020:Taiwan should devote its limited defense budget to acquiring huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines. Forbes, 9-29-2020: Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated. Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems、long-range surveillance armed drones...

　

    However, here are some problems:

　

◆ too big !?
        Many US weapons Taiwan bought in recent years are “big ticket”, "symbolic", such as M1 tank、 heavy vehicles、F16V jet ; SCMP (Hong Kong ,10-15-2020) and Japan Times (7-9-2019): those weapons Taiwan requested "will not alter the basic military balance in the region” ; A more important issue is : Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...   Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out. Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries still consist predominantly of small numbers of advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage; Bloomberg 10-27-2020 has same view.
        Therefore, Taiwan should buy "smaller-size", mobile, lethal, hard-to-target and numerous (for strategic dispersion) practical weapons with maneuverability capabilities (missiles, HIMARS, etc) better for its asymmetrical capabilities. But Taiwan went the other route. DW (Germany), 6-6-2019 reported: Taiwan confirms request for US tanks, Taiwan may be seeking to buy 66 more F-16 fighter jets 。 Taiwan expert in Diplomat,11-3-2020 thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/ says the high visibility of conventional systems positively impacts Taiwanese morale and improves public confidence in the military, and those weapons are effective during peacetime. The problem is: does Taiwan have enough budget to buy those ?

　

◆  too late !?

         Newly bought US weapons take at least one year maybe 4~5 years to arrive in Taiwan? (e.g., F16V will come by 2026). Independent (UK, 10-28-2020), SCMP( Hong Kong, 10-27-2020) : Taiwan says newly purchased US arms will help it destroy half of any invading Chinese force by 2025. However, Defense News (10-27-2020): “I think if there’s anything to be concerned about its how fast we can get these systems to the Taiwan. If this is over the next 5-7 years, ... we shouldn’t be coming out of our seats celebrating. And that’s a political question ...".
         Even all come early, still not enough ! Voice of America,10-15-2020: Experts Say Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts to Counter China. Reuters (Oct. 2020) says Taiwan is developing and testing new missiles.

         China's mouth-piece Global Times, 10-27-2020: the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real "porcupine" ( Independent UK, 10-8-2020: US: Taiwan needed to "turn themselves into a porcupine" militarily, "Lions generally don't like to eat porcupines.")


　

◆ too old !?
        Forbes, 10-26-2020: Taipei’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles complicates Beijing’s invasion-planning. Diplomat, 10-31-2020: New Offensive Weapons Package stretches the concept of “defensive” weaponry to its limit .
        However, Defense News, 10-26-2020: The Harpoon missile (just purchased) is an older technology and travels at sub-sonic speeds, which means it may be more vulnerable to advanced air defenses. ... Business Insider, 10-28-2020: Harpoon anti-ship missiles could frustrate an amphibious assault a Chinese military.. expert in Hong Kong says the missiles "will boost Taiwan's attack ability a little bit," but they "cannot survive a real war and can barely make any change to the balance of military power between Beijing and Taipei."; Global Times, 10-27-2020: The threat that these Harpoon missiles poses to the PLA is very limited, as they are high subsonic missiles designed in the 1980s, and the current self-defense and anti-missile facilities installed by the PLA on its vessels and land-based bases can shoot them down easily,"   The US has a more advanced anti-ship missile with stealth capability, but it won't sell it to Taiwan, so the latest announced sale is another expensive deal ...
        If Biden is elected, things may even worsen, CNN 10-29-2020 says that Biden could offer minor concessions to Beijing, like providing Taiwan with less potent weapons.

　

◆ Can Taiwan defeat China by US weapons ?

         Taiwan's defense may be not too bad, but there’s little doubt that China would win a war with Taiwan, even if such a conflict would be costly on all sides, according to many analysts in media such as Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020, Bloomberg, 10-8-2020. China even could destroy Taiwan easily by missiles or fatal weapons if it really wanted. Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military.

        Many pro-independence Taiwanese actually is short of "will-power", if they all have "soul of the military" as Japanese army had in WWII , Taiwan's "Tokubetsu Kogekitai" ( とくべつこうげきたい ,「神風敢死隊」, suicide planes) may destroy Chinese only two aircraft-carriers to end the war. As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll (NewsWeek, 10-28-2020).
          Both sides of Taiwan Strait are Chinese, Chinese blood in the veins. NBC 10-24-2020: Economically, Taiwan is dependent on Beijing. Washington Post, 1-2-2017 noted " 83 percent Taiwanese chose bread (China's economy) over romance ("independence"). Hope there's a win-win solution ahead.    originally written at 10-29-2020

　



　

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa 10-11

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html
www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204800.shtml

https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-says-newly-purchased-us-111753710.html

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/26/us-state-department-to-allow-sale-of-hundreds-of-anti-ship-missiles-to-taiwan-amid-diplomatic-row/

https://www.businessinsider.com/sale-of-missiles-to-taiwan-could-frustrate-a-chinese-invasion-2020-10

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/experts-say-taiwan-needs-more-homegrown-military-efforts-counter-china

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/#439bad0147f6

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-20201008-grd2fews3ffg7gdc4zyhagafjq-story.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/tiny-taiwan-caught-middle-u-s-china-battle-supremacy-n1244521

https://www.newsweek.com/china-war-taiwan-peace-poll-1542735

　

　

　

◆

China's strategy & tactics to take over Taiwan - 2021

achievement

that would

put Xi
on
the same level

within

the CCP pantheon

Mao

Zedong

￭ The Hill, 2021-3-10: after 2022 (Olympics in China) Beijing's military options: (1) a massive show of force, fighters and bombers closely pass over the entire island (2) a blockade、 Taiwan's energy and food security could become acute rather quickly (3) amphibious invasion of the Penghu Islands (4) China’s military command may advocate strongly for the option of an all-out PLA attack on Taiwan, possibly defeating Washington’s interventionist impulse by orchestrating a fait accompli. thehill.com/opinion/international/542502-beijing-has-a-plethora-of-military-options-against-taiwan-after-2022

￭ Gzero media, 2021-5-14: there are significant, ... sleeper cells already embedded in Taiwan society. They would do link up with Chinese special forces. They would take control of airfields. They would have an air lift that would literally leap over the Taiwanese defenses at sea and air. They would flood the zone with ships and submarines gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-clips/what-would-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-look-like

￭ Foreign Affairs, Mar., 2021 : Xi’s strategy now is clear: to vastly increase the level of military power that China can exert in the Taiwan Strait, to the extent that the United States would become unwilling to fight a battle that Washington itself judged it would probably lose ... would be terminal for the future of American power, prestige, and global standing... U.S. allies in Asia, who might conclude that the American security guarantees they have long relied on are worthless—and then seek their own arrangements with China. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-05/kevin-rudd-usa-chinese-confrontation-short-of-war Kevin Rudd

￭ The Hill, 2021-3-16: non-kinetic campaign to “win without fighting” — by intimidation and “hybrid warfare.”China’s Central Military Commission promulgated the Three Warfares: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare. thehill.com/opinion/international/543313-us-should-tell-china-legal-warfare-against-taiwan-will-lead-to-real-war

￭ Maritime Executive, 2-14-2021: Beijing could involve a series of limited operations: seizure of Taiwan’s offshore islands, such as Kinmen and Matsu, as well as Itu Aba and Pratas islands in the South China Sea; a naval and air blockade around Taiwan; an air and missile campaign; and offensive cyber operations against Taiwan’s critical infrastructure... it might seek to use military force in the grey zone first ... given that control of those islands would be a prerequisite for a successful amphibious assault on Taiwan, it appears likely that Beijing may seek to seize control of them before 2025. Beijing could try to capitalise on Taiwan being preoccupied with its domestic politics (major elections in 2022, 2024) and calculate that further grey-zone or military operations would have a higher probability of success. maritime-executive.com/editorials/evaluating-the-pla-navy-s-options-to-pressure-taiwan-and-test-biden

￭ Australian Financial Review, Yahoo, 2-9-2021: economic pressure or an embargo, via intimidation, dissemination operations, cyber attacks, and covert actions and subversion, to assassination and the limited use of military force https://au.news.yahoo.com/satellite-images-reveal-chinas-new-weapon-conflict-taiwan-020159990.html

￭ Diplomat, 2-9-2021: China could follow the U.S. approach to Cuba and try to suffocate Taiwan economically https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/will-taiwan-be-the-next-cuba/

￭ Guardian, 2-9-2021: “step-by-step coercion of Taiwan” to destabilise Taiwanese society and force it to accept unification talks... potential steps by Beijing could include pressuring Taiwanese investors who invest in the PRC to call for cross-Strait political talks; forcing international airlines to choose between flying to the PRC or to Taiwan; disinformation campaigns and a barrage of sophisticated cyberattacks; and increased military activities closer to the Taiwanese coast. theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/09/australia-and-allies-must-plan-for-pushback-against-china-over-taiwan-analyst-says

￭ Forbes, 1-29-2021: rockets and commandos might attack first...embark troops in large container ships flying third-country flags to moor in Kaohsiung [in southern Taiwan] and Keelung [in northern Taiwan] ... and perhaps that day’s ‘commercial’ flights forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/29/desperate-to-avoid-a-bloody-beach-assault-chinese-troops-could-try-sneaking-into-taiwan/?sh=4ffe58ed5ac9

In world media's eyes, Taiwan is ~

◆ "conduit (tool)" / The LOWY Institute( think tank in Australia ) , 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security... and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.

◆ "a dog under control" / Eurasian Times 7-9-2020: The Tsai authority ... turns to Washington and is willing to be used. Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US.

◆ "a card to play" / Foreign Policy, 1-13-2021 "Taiwan Needs Real Allies, Not Opportunists, Not Partisans " : ... That confirmed the suspicion of many Taiwan analysts that this administration views the island primarily as a card to play against the People’s Republic of China and as a convenient foil to it—or the “free China” per Pompeo’s press release.

◆ "meat on chopping blocks" / New York Times , 9-18-2020: Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States,... Many people are saying that Taiwan has become the meat on others’ chopping blocks”

◆ "human bomb" / Global Times, 9-8-2020: US sets Taiwan up as a 'human bomb' ( drive the little to poke the big )

◆ "a rat" / Le Monde diplomatique of France, '16: Taiwan, a trembling sweating rat, doing nothing to approaching huge cat (China), but turning around and lifting high a banner "$O$" .

◆ “a ticking time bomb" / Brookings, 12-14-2020: Taiwan should follow suit and take a pragmatic approach, and avoid becoming what Graham Allision described as “a ticking time bomb" that could lead to a tragic conflict

◆ "food on the menu" / SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, Taiwan has long been on the menu."

◆ "a bargaining chip" / Forbes, 10-5-2020: It would be a mistake for the U.S. to pursue an FTA as part of its China policy or to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, and Taiwan has reasons to be wary as well.

◆ " a tradable pawn", "a useful chess piece" / Global Times, 8-23-2020: Taiwan is a useful chess piece for the US only because of the US strategy to suppress the Chinese mainland. On the one hand, Washington exploits the Taiwan question to contain China, on the other hand it is inciting tensions and making money by selling arms to Taiwan...Taiwan is a tradable pawn. Taiwan for the US is only a tradable chess piece, but for the mainland, reunification of the mainland and Taiwan is priceless.
◆ "cash machine" / Global Times, 10-27-2020: the latest announced sale is another expensive deal aimed at taking Taiwan taxpayers' money with low-quality weapons, in other words, the US is still treating the island as a "cash machine" ...

◆ "dispensable irritant" / Asia Times, 11-16-2020; Washington Post 1-18-2019: Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Could Taiwan be next ? WP, 7-14-2020: Trump's policies are undermining the security of Taiwan's democracy ...

◆

◆

The People’s Daily, 10-15-2020 , Global Times, 10-15-2020: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you" (「勿謂言之不預」)...

http://www.nexttv.com.tw/NextTV/News/Home/LatestNews/2020-10-17/275597.html

台灣壹電視壹新聞, 10-17-2020
The People’s Daily《告台灣情治部門書》full text : http://js.people.com.cn/BIG5/n2/2020/1015/c359574-34350271.html;
Economist 10-22-2020 : https://www.economist.com/china/2020/10/22/chinas-half-loving-half-threatening-pitch-to-taiwan-doesnt-work
Washington Post, 10-26-2020: how the us should respond to china's saber-ratting on Taiwan
　
● China's PRC state council office for Taiwan affairs (國台辦) , 2021-4-28：“Don’t say we didn’t warn you ”(「勿謂言之不預」) - after DPP looses new constitution committee's advocating rectification of country name to be "Rep. of Taiwan" ...
● Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece《人民日報》), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past
● Washington Post, 10-26-2020: ... jingoistic editorials in China's state-run press — have raised concerns in the West that Xi is readying China for a new war. The target in this case would be Taiwan
● After China's mouthpiece, People's Daily or XinHua editorial issued a severe warning "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" in 1962、1967、1978，Chinese PLA started military operations against Indian and Vietnamese troops respectively.
● The People's Daily in Nov. 2019 sent a warning "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" to Hong Kongers, in the next year China cracked down HK, and passed a national security law on Hong Kong.
● This time the People’s Daily put its warning to Taiwan's intelligence in "opinion/commentary" , instead of "editorial" column as before, and on "7th edition" instead of 1st~4th edition as before, ... therefore, it's serious but not as severe as before, probably a warning for coercion or "gray zone" actions such as blockage or economic intervenes, or pressuring Taiwan into giving up ... those sort of psychological war.
● SCMP (HK), 10-20-2020: ... unusually strong language in a recent commentary in People's Daily invoking the phrase “don’t say we didn’t warn you”, serves as a reminder, which was targeting a big rise in the number of Taiwanese intelligence agents active on the mainland, but was aimed at a much wider audience.
● Washington Post (7-22-2020) : In 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. Soon later PLA's warplanes crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") first time ever since 1949, according to Newsweek 8-12-2020, and the PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions till now.
　
　
　


   PS: The commentary also criticizes Taiwan intelligence's "green terror" and monitoring the public, which is good for Taiwanese people
   PS2: Global Times, 12-5-2020: there are eight obstacles in the way of achieving peaceful reunification which are legislature, education, elections, rising populism, US-led anti-China sentiment, conflict of interests business, culture conflicts and passive attitude of political parties.
   PS3: CGTN 11-26-2020: Understanding the one-China policy: Taiwan is a part of China, but was ceded to Japan in an unfair treaty in 1895. The year of 1945 marked the end of the 50-year Japanese occupation of Taiwan. In 1949, the Kuomindang (KMT) party lost the Chinese Civil War to the Communist Party of China, and subsequently the Republic of China ceased to exist as a legitimate government. Chiang Kai Shek, the then KMT leader, fled to Taiwan and the island was given military protection by the United States, preventing formal reunification from taking place. In 1971, UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 set out that the People's Republic of China (PRC) constituted the only lawful representative of China and thus the PRC obtained the seat of "China" at the United Nations previously occupied by the Republic of China.In line with this, Beijing has requested other countries to accept the one-China policy as a prerequisite for diplomatic relations. Most countries have already accepted this principle and respected the one-China position. However, the Taiwan issue hasnot yet been resolved.
　

◆

　
Military Review ― Sept. ~ Oct. , 2020 /   ＵＳArmy University Press
www.armyupress.army.mil/journals/military-review/english-edition-archives/September-October-2020/
　

brief
　
Military Review　paints a picture ― China's PLA will attack south-west coast of Taiwan, and land weaker-defense area - eastern Taiwan, southern Taiwan
　
　

　

　
◆ 　　Why Would China Not Invade Taiwan Now? /   Tim Willasey-Wilsey

Why Invade Now ? Why Not Invade Now ?

The Trump administration has no appetite for overseas military adventures. Trump is not going to war with China, and not over Taiwan. He is far more interested in trade wars and economic advantage. whether PLA is capable of achieving a quick victory over Taiwan.

There may never be another moment when the whole world is focused on managing an event of the scale of the coronavirus pandemic。 Though the Chinese are quintessentially patient, they are also demonstrably opportunistic a huge gamble for armed forces which have not been employed in combat during the careers of even their most senior officers.

China could hardly be more globally unpopular than now. Much of it may be unfair but there will be plenty of time to improve diplomatic relations
once Taiwan has been safely reunified The aircraft carriers and amphibious landing ships are still relatively new.
A lot could go wrong

Taiwan Relations Act fell far short of a guarantee to come to Taiwan’s assistance. Even President “Six Assurances” made no mention of U.S. military intervention. The Taiwanese will fight and fight hard.

once reunified, pro-Western countries, like Japan and South Korea, will be more humbled and less likely to believe in the U.S. defense umbrella. the U.S. won’t want to get into a war over Taiwan; but there are many military options in cyber, South China Sea strikes, special forces, and other means

unify the country in time for the centenary of the CCP in 2021 and long before that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2049. China has much more to lose internationally from economic sanctions

little chance that the U.S. would sail a carrier strike group into or near the Taiwan Strait now that the PLA Navy (PLAN) is equipped with quiet submarines the Chinese will crack down on Hong Kong, build their fleet, economy, and cyber for another decade, and make their move then against Taiwan—not now.

　

　

　

　

　

　

◆ 　　Time Horizons Drive Potential Taiwan Cross-Strait Conflict /   David An

a state will act based on its intentions, capabilities, and opportunities， time horizons。 converging time horizons drive China to be more aggressive toward Taiwan, shortening the timeline for unification, while at the same time driving the United States to be more willing to stand up to China’s aggression

　

U.S. intervention to assist Taiwan ？Ｎｏ intervention

security—Taiwan has been a loyal partner to the United States not want to sacrifice its troops in another foreign conflict

economics—Taiwan usually ranks as the tenth largest trading partner of the United States avoid a direct kinetic conflict with nuclear-armed China

regime type—Taiwan is a liberal constitutional democracy could escalate to frightening levels

audience cost concerns ― Japan, South Korea, and Australia will be more skeptical of U.S. commitment to them？ unit-level characteristics ―
the personal views of the U.S. leaders toward China and Taiwan at the time

others that could intervene to assist Taiwan would most likely include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly the other NATO allies of the United States. Russia and North Korea might step in to help China

　

　

　

　

◆ 　Deterring the Dragon　Returning U.S. Forces to Taiwan　／　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Mills-Deterring-Dragon/
If the United States wants to maintain credible conventional deterrence against a PLA attack on Taiwan, it needs to consider basing troops in Taiwan.
Ground forces based in Taiwan would not only be important for repelling a PLA invasion, but more importantly, they would act like what RAND calls a “tripwire”; that is, “smaller numbers of ground forces stationed to ensure that U.S. forces quickly become directly involved in a potential adversary invasion.”53 A small force would be economical and minimally antagonistic toward mainland China especially if it was only a rotational force.
　

　

　
◆ 　Drive Them into the Sea　　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Dunn-Drive-Into-Sea/
　
Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military operations. Success depends upon air and maritime superiority, the rapid buildup and sustainment of supplies onshore, and uninterrupted support. An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention. These stresses, combined with China’s combat force attrition and the complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency, even assuming a successful landing and breakout, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk.
what does America do when its forces arrive? Arriving in time to enforce a cease-fire is simply a means to delay losing. Just the credible threat of a U.S. Army corps capable of being deployed to Taiwan might deter China from starting an invasion; China might no longer be confident that the main effort will remain one between the PLA and the Taiwanese ground forces. And if deterrence fails, the corps will drive the enemy into the sea
　
　
　

　

　
◆ 　New Opportunities amid Increasing Threats　　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Setzekorn-Taiwan-US-Army/
　
Due to the PLA downsizing and streamlining into a force of roughly 1.3 million ground force personnel, not all of whom can be deployed, Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity
　
　
　

●

US Naval Institute, Proceedings, 2020-August ; Forbes, 8-24-2020
Chinese military vs. Taiwanese military
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was

brief
　
◆(1) The 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making. The PBSC decided in mid-December (2020) to place in motion Operation Red Province — to bring Taiwan back into China.

◆(2) Non-government voices on Taiwan, orchestrated as a deception operation by Chinese intelligence services, now called for full independence, creating a predicate for Beijing to move on its legal claim. The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions and then commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January.

◆(3) Two days before U.S. presidential inauguration, a message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion... China’s own “little green men” — emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities. A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid.

◆(4) PLA seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus. Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships. An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced.

◆(5) China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” sent messages: “Don’t join in any international rebuke of China or suffer the consequences of reduced Chinese trade and investment.” Stock markets across the globe crashed on 19 January.

◆(6) the National Security Advisor said, “This is not about whether we stand behind Taiwan—we do—but it looks like we may have been outmaneuvered. I don’t like it,"
　

●

　

　
China-Taiwan War/Tension :
China sent numerous aircraft close to Taiwan and crossed the sensitive median line during two days of drills
by Reuters (UK) 9-21-2020
https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL3N2GI0KE

　

brief 　
WHY IS TENSION RISING NOW?
two US top officials visits in as many months, and the US is planning major new arms sales to Taiwan.

　

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

1) Taiwan and China do not have an official dialogue mechanism, which could quickly spiral out of control.
2) China may quickly overwhelm Taiwan with missile and cyber attacks before the US even has a chance to respond, though it is an open question whether Washington would, or could, come to Taipei’s aid.
　
HOW DO THE ARMED FORCES OF THE TWO SIDES COMPARE?
Taiwan’s military is dwarfed by China’s People’s Liberation Army
　
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN A WAR BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA?
missiles and air attacks, cyberattacks , naval blockade to force surrender
　

●

　
The Scary War Game Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again and Again 8-17-2020
by Real Clear Investigations
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html

　

　 1) Taiwan Defense Act ― questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon, which have received scant notice in the mainstream press.
2) The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over.

Chn. attacks Taiwan 　
◆(1) China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation”

◆(2) A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ; China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan.

◆(3) American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles. Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets.

◆(4) American submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships, but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy

◆(5) Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) ― would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops

◆(6) The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports. Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element.
◆(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.
　

US defends Taiwan 　
◆(1) The key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait. American long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600 miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours”
◆(2) A second component of a Taiwan defense would be space-based reconnaissance using artificial intelligence to locate enemy targets, which the LRASMs would hit; a third would be an American version of flooding the zone, with unmanned undersea drones that could fire torpedoes at Chinese landing craft.

◆(3) If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”
　

PS 1 ) an array of economic, diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and actions.
2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan.

●

　

　
The Diplomat , 9-13-2020
https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/the-end-of-strategic-ambiguity-in-the-taiwan-strait/ The End of Strategic Ambiguity: Back to the Future by The Diplomat , 9-13-2020

brief 　

◆ The most likely course of action is increased political warfare against the Taiwan democratic system. Previously, influence operations designed to persuade, with a focus on developing Taiwanese businessmen in China into a CCP-friendly constituency. While the overall emphasis has shifted to destructive subversion. infiltrating ― local civic organizations, the media, and the military, to create paralysis and unrest to justify, and then assist with, an invasion.

◆ The most dangerous course of action ― an invasion, achieving a fait accompli of securing Taiwan capitulation prior to U.S. intervention. To achieve this, the first is an extension of political warfare techniques into the kinetic realm: system destruction warfare, meant to paralyze the opponent’s leadership, the second is the integration of AI and algorithms into operations. “Intelligent operations,” with an “algorithm game” to “quickly and accurately predict the situation on the battlefield” and seize the initiative.

●

If China invades Taiwan ...
responses from US president Trump, state secretary Pompeo

◆ FoxNews, Newsweek, 9-22-2020 In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Trump too talked tough on the flashpoint, but declined to specify how he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait
"They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems."

◆ FoxNews, 8-23-2020, Q:
1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors."
2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?
Trump :
1) They're coming to this country.

2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,” “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this" "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it"

It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing

　

◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020 Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises.
https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/ Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources

◆ FoxNews, 6-1-2020
　

QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?



     SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.
https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

　

　

◆ washingtonexaminer, 10-7-2020
in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan

　
◆ Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020:   Pompeo: U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china

NEWS ~ NEWS

◆ Financial Times (UK), 2021-3-27: US fears China is flirting with seizing control of Taiwan◆ Reuters, Axios, 2021-3-27:Taiwan reports largest ever incursion by Chinese air force ◆ Forbes, 2021-3-26: Many observers believe the moment when the option “reunite”Taiwan by force is exercised is fast approaching. One time-tested solution would be to station about 5,000 soldiers plus supporting artillery and air defense units as a “tripwire”, without an early U.S. ground presence the invasion might well succeed ◆ Washington Post, 2021-3-26: Xi might be in favor of a risky push for reunification — especially if China continues to believe that a weakened America isn’t ready to fight back ◆ DW, 2021-3-25: B. Glaser sees a China military attack on Taiwan as unlikely ◆ Defense One, 2021-3-24: More missiles will not guarantee Taiwan’s survival by themselves. Taiwan must still prioritize urgent reforms of its ground, air, and naval defenses ◆ WSJ, 3-22-2021: Chinese President Xi Jinping has made clear that retaking Taiwan is a priority, and China's military is building a force capable of a quick-strike ◆ Bloomberg, 3-21-2021: I see a very dangerous situation. The U.S. commitment to Taiwan has grown verbally stronger even as it has become militarily weaker... the reluctance of the Taiwanese themselves to treat their national security with the same seriousness that Israelis take the survival of their state ◆ Australian, 3-22-2021: Unfortunately for Taiwan, its future grows increasingly uncertain as Beijing’s military expansionism continues unabated...◆ Diplomat, 3-20-2021:Taiwan’s government, however, has met entrenched opposition to these reforms from some senior commanders. Moreover, military effectiveness is limited by unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages ◆ Politico, 3-15-2021:Trump indicated (in 2019) America might not come to Taipei’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion，"If they invade, there isn’t a f---ing thing we can do about it." ◆ Bloomberg, 3-14-2021: the Council on Foreign Relations report cautions against an explicit U.S. pledge to commit its own forces in the event of a Chinese invasion... the US will intervene. What reason is there to believe that the United States will sacrifice the lives of its own children to defend Taiwan? ◆ AFP, France24, 3-11-2021: the US was losing its military edge to China in the Pacific ◆ Guardian, 3-10-2021: China could invade Taiwan in next six years, top US admiral warns ◆ Forbes, 3-8-2021:Taiwan Aims To Sink Half Of A Chinese Invasion Fleet—It Could Take Years To Buy Enough Missiles ◆ NBC, 3-8-2021: CCP has threatened to invade if Taiwan declares formal independence or delays talks on uniting with the mainland...Biden should roll back the “dangerous practice” of showing support for Taiwan ◆ Chn-TW war news cyber-links

◆ News (Australia) , 3-6-2021, NZ Herald (New Zealand), 3-7-2021: Taiwan is in ‘imminent danger’ of being forced to unify with China ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan) , 3-3-2021: H.R. McMaster : the period of greatest danger for Taiwan is from 2022 onward, after the Beijing Winter Olympics and the Chinese Communist Party's twice-a-decade national congress. "Taiwan is the next big prize" for China and is "the most significant flashpoint" that could lead to a large-scale war ◆ Taipei Times , 3-1-2021: "Either we arm Taiwan or die trying" ◆ DefenseNewss , 3-1-2021: Taiwan’s military is not yet “optimally manned, trained, equipped and motivated to defend against an attack” by China...efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers ( symmetric response, expensive and high-end platforms are limited utility in an actual conflict, they also against full conscription ) and a lack of time (weapons acquisition and development plans years away from delivery) ◆ Defense One , 3-1-2021: A SALAMI Slice for Taiwan's Security, act boldly to “home-port” an American warship at a Taiwanese port ◆ Diplomat , 2-26-2021: evolution of Taiwan’s military was being hindered by bureaucracy and inefficient procedures. The army’s military preparedness has come into question from both domestic and international experts ◆ Guardian , 2-21-2021:Xi is forced to bargain with internal party figures to seek a third term...Taiwan is probably the best tool to do that... China is probably a decade or a bit longer from building up sufficient capabilities to feel it can confidently do so (military takeover of Taiwan )... Kinmen will fall early ◆ Economist , 2-20-2021: In reality America’s ability to deter an invasion over Taiwan is crumbling... the hardest part of deterring China involves building robust coalitions that are ready to challenge Chinese aggression...If China ever believes it can complete the task at a bearable cost, it will act ◆ New York Times, 2-12-2021: Analysts warned : Beijing may resort to war if the Kuomintang is unable to reclaim power or if the Communist Party feels it no longer has a dialogue partner on the island news cyber-links

◆

◆ Guardian, 2-9-2021: the Taiwan Strait could become a flashpoint ..the pivotal reason peace had endured for 70 years had disappeared, ... ◆ Australian, 2-8-2021: China to take over Taiwan using "all means short of war" as early as 2024 ◆ Financial Times, 2-9-2021: Taiwan on alert after subtle shifts in tone from Biden administration ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2-1-2021: Taiwan Defense: A Hard Problem for the U.S. / American carrier battle groups within hundreds of miles of the Chinese coast would have difficulty surviving a coordinated attack by many hundreds of Chinese missiles...Will the extremely war-weary American public stand by for this unnecessary slaughter? ◆ NY Times, 1-30-2021: a war with China probably won’t happen. Yet if it does, it might begin in Pratas or Kinmen... it is a considerably greater risk than it had been for decades ◆ Washington Post, 1-28-2021: Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a U.S.-China Clash ◆ SCMP, 2-2-2021: Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Most US opinion leaders back military defence of Taiwan if China invades, But intervention is opposed by the majority of the American public, though support has increased in recent years ◆ Reuters, FoxNews, 1-28-2021: China warns Taiwan independence ‘means war’ ◆ Nikkei (Japan), 1-28-2021: White House spokeswoman : the Biden administration will maintain its predecessor's tough line toward China for the time being ... Taiwan makes up one of its fronts ◆ FoxNews, 1-27-2021:Unlike Trump in 2017, China is 'not afraid of Biden' ◆ NY Times, 1-24-2021: China sent warplanes into the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, a show of force to the Biden administration that signals Beijing’s plans to maintain pressure on Taiwan even as it calls for a reset with the US ◆ Wall Street Journal, 1-24-2021: China sent strategic bombers, jet fighters and a turboprop near Taiwan, a likely warning to the new administration over its support for the island news cyber-links

◆

◆ Global Times (China), 1-25-2021: the juxtaposition of the three China-US joint communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act and the six assurances mentioned in the US statement this time differs from the Trump administration's refusal to mention the three joint communiqués in his later period...Only with the one-China principle in place can the Taiwan Straits avoid miscalculation ◆ Washington Examiner, 1-24-2021: The United States does not recognize Taiwan as an sovereign country, but U.S. strategists regard the island as a crucial link in a chain of islands that restrains the Chinese Communist military’s ability to threaten U.S. forces ◆ Washington Post, AP , 1-24-2021: We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives ◆ Foreign Policy, 1-22-2021: Taiwan seeks assurances from Biden admin., but Biden and his team are likely to resist using Taiwan as a cudgel against China the way Trump did ◆ Reuters, 1-20-2021: Blinken : would uphold its commitment to ensure that self-ruled Taiwan has the ability to defend itself ◆ New Zealand Herald, 1-14-2021: A US national security document stamped "SECRET" has been declassified : the superpower would defend Taiwan against an attack from China ◆ WSJ, 1-11-2021:China has launched one of the greatest military buildups in the history of the world across the straits from Taiwan. Coupled with the artificial islands and military buildup in the South China Sea, it’s clear Beijing has been systematically seeking to create the conditions for a successful invasion of Taiwan. This is anything but a secret; the gradual decline of America’s ability to forestall an invasion of Taiwan is well understood by governments around the Pacific. news cyber-links

◆

RAND: Implementing - Restraint Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint

RAND

Jan. 22, 2021

brief

￭ When the US would use force ? ... not suggested that the United States should launch a preventative war against China, even if it becomes more powerful. It is unlikely that advocates of restraint would support an armed intervention by the United States in response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The Taiwan Relations Act calls on the U.S. President to “maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan,” and, traditionally, the United States has indicated that it would defend Taiwan in the case of an unprovoked invasion by China. Calls by advocates of restraint for the United States to downgrade its relationship with Taiwan rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-1.html

South China Morning Post (SCMP), 2-2-2021: Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Most US opinion leaders back military defence of Taiwan if China invades, survey finds, but intervention is opposed by the majority of the American public, though support has increased in recent years. scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3120239/most-us-opinion-leaders-back-military-defence-taiwan-if-china

◆

◆ Newsweek, 1-6-2021: China Wages Cognitive Warfare To Topple Taiwan Government ◆ WSJ, 12-28-2020: The loss of democratic Taiwan’s independence against its will would be a geopolitical earthquake. The Pacific balance of power would shift decisively in China’s favor ◆ Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says ◆ NY Times, 11-24-2020: Biden Faces Pressure from Democrats and Republicans to Stand Up to China by Embracing Taiwan... He will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues ... won't use Taiwan to poke Xi Jinping in the eye and make him look weak ◆ National Interest, 11-20-2020: Would China really invade Taiwan? Maybe ! But the costs would be nuts ◆ Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity (~2022), experts fear ◆ WSJ, 11-15-2020: An attack on Taiwan, the top chips manufacturer, would roil industry and the world ◆ National Interest, 11-15-2020: Geography and history dictate that the American defense policy and the security of Taiwan are one and the same—and it cannot be decoupled◆ DW (Germany) ,11-10-2020:The Biden administration will have to make it quite clear from the outset whether it is ready to go to war for Taiwan's sake ◆ NY Times, 12-14-2020: Pound for Pound, Taiwan at the center of the battle for global technological supremacy is the most important place in the world, As the Cold War between China and the United States intensifies, that importance will only continue to grow
◆

Only with the one-China principle in place can the Taiwan Straits avoid miscalculation
Biden administration should sent out a clear political signal / Global Times (China), 1-25-2021

Biden's "signals"

￭ Washington Examiner, 1-24-2021 : The United States does not recognize Taiwan as an sovereign country, but U.S. strategists regard the island as a crucial link in a chain of islands that restrains the Chinese Communist military’s ability to operate away from the Chinese coast and threaten U.S. forces and other allies.
￭ Bloomberg, 1-24-2021: The State Department statement indicated a desire by the Biden administration to preserve the longstanding ambiguity about Taiwan’s status. The U.S. pledged to stand by existing agreements with China and spoke of the interests of the “people on Taiwan,” rather than the people “of Taiwan.”
￭ Washington Post, Associated Press, DW, 1-24-2021: “We urge Beijing to ... engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives," spokesperson Ned Price said in the statement. (PS: CTV 1-29-2021 20pm ~: experts comment using "Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives" to name "Taiwan president" and officials etc )
￭ Reuters, 2-4-2021: U.S. State Department says U.S. "one-China" policy has not changed.

◆

◆ Reuters,11-12-2020:WHO says faces 'onslaught' of cyberattacks as Taiwan complains of censorship ◆ Express UK,11-10-2020: Due to Mr Biden’s less-severe tone on China in the lead up to the election, and has no specific policy for deepening ties with Taiwan, Taiwan officials fear a Biden administration would be more conciliatory towards Beijing at the expense of Taiwan ◆ Reuters,11-9-2020: Taiwan lawmakers described Biden as “China-friendly”, and others pointing to Biden’s opposition to a bill to strengthen Taiwan’s security in 1999 ◆ News Australia,11-7-2020: 'War will come’ warns Beijing after Taiwan stocks up on US-made missiles ◆ Newsweek,11-4-2020: Taiwan Would Last 'Only Two Weeks' in War With China, Says Ex-Navy Commander ◆ Japan Sankei Shimbun ( 產經新聞),10-29-2020:Japan's DM 岸信夫: Given military imbalance of both sides, anything can happen, Taiwan must be very cautious ◆ Yomiuri (Japan 読売新聞), 10-30-2020: Japan will hold military drill the largest ever since 35 years ago to avoid engaging in a possible China-Taiwan war ("１４万人演習…陸自「台湾有事」波及を警戒") ◆ NewsWeek, 10-28-2020: As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll ◆ Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island. With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. ◆ Financial Times, 10-19-2020: Mr Xi has already demonstrated that he is willing to take military risks and repressive actions that antagonise the west and scare China’s neighbours. Political turmoil in Washington (ps: US election) may open a window of opportunity for Beijing ◆ Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT: whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it ◆ Washington Post, 10-15-2020: Would the US protect Taiwan from China? Taiwan's new envoy hopes for 'clarity.' ... “I have not considered at all the possibility of too much support for Taiwan,” ◆ VOA, 10-17-2020: Taiwan Should Prepare to deter Chinese any sort of amphibious invasion or even a gray zone operation ( isolating the island economically, coercive and provocative actions short of the use of military force) ◆ WSJ,10-13-2020: continued ambiguity in the face of Xi's escalating rhetoric and provocative movements by his armed forces in the Taiwan Strait presents the greater risk of a confrontation as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis ◆ VOA,10-15-2020: Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts, expand its military reserve, to Counter China ◆ Forbes,10-26-2020:To Thwart Invasion, Taiwan Points Powerful New Missiles At Chinese Bases news cyber-links

news

◆ NewsWeek, 7-21-2020:

Once military conflict breaks out -

A slight plurality of 31 percent

assigned blame to

Chinese President Xi Jinping,

while 30 percent of respondents

said they believed both Xi and

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen

were responsible

and 24 percent blamed Tsai.

◆ Eurasian Times
7-9-2020:

The Tsai authority knows that

Taiwan cannot compete with

the mainland on its own,

and therefore turns to Washington

and is willing to be used.
Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’

Of The US.

● Reuters, Japan Times, 9-8-2020: Eyeing China, Taiwan urges alliance against 'aggressive actions'

● NHK Japan, 7-20-2020:Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has warned that the island will face intensifying pressure from China.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200719_18/

● Washington Post 7-22-2020: the Taiwanese fm : urging "extreme caution" in the island's dealings with a Chinese
leadership in Beijing that he described as both increasingly emboldened and insecure.

● Daily Mail, 7-22-2020: Foreign Minister Wu: 'The threat is on the rise' !!
intrusions 'happened almost every day' in June and were 'much more frequent' than what the government had disclosed to the public.
China has also made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan. ( ps: media didn't report it's on an almost daily basis since Jun. )

● CNN 2-19-2020 exclusive interview with Taiwanese president Tsai I. W. : "What we are expecting is, after withstanding

the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" ....

"Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" ...

Therefore, Taiwan's fears soar as China repeats threat to INVADE the small island nearby.

◆ Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports:
In Jan. 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered
an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for
unification talks or face annexation
by force. However, Taiwan's government was
tight-lipped about this ultimatum, otherwise pro-Independence Tsai I. W. may not continue in
presidential office in 2020, because,
according to National Interest (6-16-2020):
more than 60.3 percent of the respondents
opposed Taiwan's independence
if it is followed by
China’s military invasion...

●

CNN 9-17-2020 interviews with Taiwan FM : Taiwan is trying to avoid being "the next Hong Kong"

China-Taiwan war

FoxNews, 9-9-2020 (9-10-2020 Taipei time) :
Taiwan unveils US-backed fighter jet hub as tensions with China build

https://www.foxnews.com/world/will-taiwan-become-the-next-hong-kong China military show of force near Taiwan has experts asking if island could be the 'next Hong Kong'

No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 8-2-2020 ( upper items are ads. )

No.1 "Taiwan military" on US Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 7-26-2020, 6-28-2020, 6-3-2020, 5-30-2020

◆ pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" (Chinese version"台灣軍隊") on Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-8-2020, 6-2-2020

ps: TTV 7-3-2020: a marine amphibious landing craft (similar to pic. above) was overturned in an exercise

●

Taiwanese military VS. communist China's military [ People's Liberation Army ]

◆ Forbes, 1-29-2021: Desperate To Avoid a Bloody Beach-Assault, Chinese Troops Could Try Sneaking Into Taiwan ( in large container ships flying third-country flags to moor in southern Taiwan and northern Taiwan ... and perhaps that day’s ‘commercial’ flights ) forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/29/desperate-to-avoid-a-bloody-beach-assault-chinese-troops-could-try-sneaking-into-taiwan/?sh=4ffe58ed5ac9

◆ Forbes, 1-28-2021: China’s Future Stealth Bombers Could Clear A Path Through Taiwan’s Defenses forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/28/chinas-stealth-bombers-could-clear-a-path-through-taiwans-defenses/?sh=12c1363c4a06

◆ Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), 1-29-2021: ‘It’s a red line’: Taiwan defence chair urges Australia to act over China war threats

How long can Taiwan resist PLA attacks ?
media	brief
Foreign Affairs, 2021-6-3	... result in a U.S. defeat, with China completing an all-out invasion in just days or weeks
Reuters, 2021-4-7	Taiwan Foreign Minister : will fight to the end if China attacks
The Hill, 2021-3-10	PLA now has the capabilities to subdue Taiwan in a matter of weeks, if not days.
Taiwan's minister of Defense 邱國正 ( Mar. 2021) : We will be on the field no matter how many days PLA can attack ("不要問國軍能撐幾天，要問中共能打多少天，我們全程奉陪"！) previous Taiwan's minister of Defense - 李傑: 2 weeks，馮世寬: more than 1 week ，嚴明: one month，高華柱: more than 1 week
Global Times, 2021-4-8, chief editor	It's a miracle if Taiwan can resist PLA for 48 hours (台灣「能堅持48小時，就是奇蹟」)
N.Y. Times, 8-30-2020	President Tsai : 24 hours to resist 1st wave attacks then awaits int'l interfere ...
Newsweek,11-5-2020; NEWS (Australia), 11-7-2020	2 weeks
The Naval Institute, Proceedings, Aug., 2020	3 days
Forbes Advocate, 8-26-2020, Forbes, 8-24-2020	3 days
National Interest, 8-6-2020	a few days ~ a few weeks
Bloomberg, 7-30-2020	not too long ...
Real Clear Investigations 8-17-2020	one ~ 2 weeks probably
Financial Times, 10-21-2020	there is little doubt that China could overtake Taiwan by force in 10 days
民視(FTV) 2-25-2019	Taipei mayor : Americans told him 2 days at most
Forbes, 7-17-2020	soon or weeks
自由時報( Liberty Times) , 7-29-2020	more than 72 hours / 林保華專欄
壹新聞( Next News) 5-20-2020 9:10pm	"鑑船知識" : 24 hours ?
Global Times (China) , Mar 2018	estimates 100 hours
New York times, 11-4-2017	2 weeks
中視 (CTV news), 12-18-2016	Taiwan minister of Defense: more than 1 week

◆

China VS Taiwan
personnel (active)		Tanks		Artillery pieces		Aircraft carriers
China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan
1,030,000	88,000	6300	800	6300	1100	2	0
Destroyers		Frigates		Tank landing ships		submarine
China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan
32	22	49	22	37	14	56	2
Fighters		Bombers/attack		Transport aircraft		The Queensland Times, 2021-2-6 https://www.qt.com.au/news/xi-and-putins-aggressive-master-plan/4192130/
China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan	China	Taiwan
1500	400	450	0	400	30

◆

China is building an invasion force

Type 075 Assault Carriers
　 can deploy attack helicopters, transport helicopters, and landing craft

Type 071 Landing Platform Docks
　 Carry large numbers of troops with supporting landing craft and helicopters

Carrier Battle Group 2 aircraft carriers supported by guided missile destroyers and frigates

Landing Ships Tanks (LST) Landing craft and ships taken up from trade land reinforcements

Zubr Hovercraft Can quickly carry troops and light vehicles from shops to shore

ZTD-05 Amphibious Tanks Can swim from a ship to fight for control of a beach

The Queensland Times, 2021-2-6

◆

China's Military Power Report / annual Report to US Congress (2020)

Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2020
　

US Department of Defense 2020 report, 9-1-2020 / Chinese military VS. Taiwanese military

the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor

https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

contrast

Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military

pic. left : Ground Forces - Taiwan vs. China ; pic. right : Naval Forces - Taiwan vs. China

Forbes 9-2-2020 fig.: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/09/02/the-military-imbalance-in-the-taiwan-strait-in-2020-infographic/#2aeed4fc4ca5

China has also made huge progress building amphibious assault ships and tank-landing vessels that would be essential in launching a successful invasion of Taiwan.

the China Military Power Report estimates that China's warhead stockpile is now in the low 200s and that number is expected to double to at least 400-500 by 2030

pic. left : Air Forces - Taiwan vs. China ; pic. right : China's Rocket Forces

TW
Defense

TAIWAN’S DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES

◆(1) China’s multi-decademilitary modernization effort has eroded or negated many of the military advantages that Taiwan has historically enjoyed the context of a cross-Strait conflict.

◆(2) Taiwan is taking important steps to compensate for the growing disparities – building its war reserve stocks, growing its defense-industrial base, improving joint operations and crisis response capabilities,and strengthening its officer and noncommissioned officer corps – these improvements only partially address Taiwan’s declining defensive advantages.

◆(3) The modified strategy stresses enhanced asymmetric capabilities, as well as suggesting greater reliance on Taiwan’s Air Force and Navy.

◆(4) The transition (active duty forces to all-volunteer force ) has slowed due to severe difficulties recruiting volunteers.

◆(5) Taiwan has stated that it is working to develop new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare. Some specific areas of emphasis include offensive and defensive information & EW，high-speed stealth vessels ，shore-based mobile missiles rapid mining and minesweeping unmanned aerial systems and critical infrastructure protection.

Chn.
attacks

CHINA’S COURSES OF ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN

These circumstances PLA would use forces have included:
1. Formal declaration of Taiwan independence; 2. Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence; 3. Internal unrest in Taiwan; 4. Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons; 5. Indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification; 6. Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs; 7. Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.
　

◆(1) China could pursue a measured approach by signaling its readiness to use force or conduct punitive actions against Taiwan. The PLA could also conduct a more comprehensive campaign designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue under China’s terms.
◆(2) China would attempt to delay and defeat intervention in an asymmetric, limited war of short duration. In the event of a protracted conflict, China might choose to escalate cyberspace, space, or nuclear activities in an attempt to end the conflict, or it might choose to fight to a stalemate and pursue a political settlement.
◆(3) China has a range of options for military campaigns against Taiwan, from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize and occupy some or all of Taiwan or its offshore islands.

● Blockades ― kinetic blockades of maritime and air traffic, including a cut-off of Taiwan’s vital imports, to force Taiwan’s capitulation. Large-scale missile strikes and possible seizures of Taiwan’s offshore islands would accompany a Joint Blockade in an attempt to achieve a rapid Taiwan surrender, while at the same time, posturing air and naval forces to conduct weeks or months of blockade operations if necessary. China will also likely complement its air and maritime blockade operations with concurrent electronic warfare (EW), network attacks, and information operations (IO) to further isolate Taiwan’s authorities and populace and to control the international narrative of the conflict.

● Limited Force or Coercive Options ― a variety of disruptive, punitive, or lethal military actions in a limited campaign against Taiwan, probably in conjunction with overt and clandestine economic and political activities supported by a variety of IO to shape perceptions or undercut the effectiveness or legitimacy of the Taiwan authorities. Such a campaign could include computer network or limited kinetic attacks against Taiwan’s political, military, and economic infrastructure to induce fear in Taiwan and degrade the Taiwan population’s confidence in their leaders.
● Air and Missile Campaign ― China could use missile attacks and precision air strikes against air defense systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan’s defenses, neutralize Taiwan’s leadership, or break the Taiwan people’s resolve.
● Landing Campaign ― The most prominent of these, the Joint Island Landing Campaign, envisions a complex operation relying on coordinated, interlocking campaigns for logistics, air, and naval support, and EW. The objective would be to break through or circumvent shore defenses, establish and build a beachhead, transport personnel and materiel to designated landing sites in the north or south of Taiwan’s western coastline, and launch attacks to seize and occupy key targets or the entire island.

◆ (4) The PRC appears willing to defer the use of military force as long as it considers that unification with Taiwan could be negotiated over the long-term and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits

◆ Forbes, 9-2-2020: the U.S. Defense 's annual guide to the Soviet military 1981 ~ 1991 is naked propaganda chock full inaccurate or misleading data, unfair comparisons and outright lies, the Pentagon’s propaganda campaign continues, its China's Military Power Report mostly portrays China as a seemingly unbeatable martial monolith with limitless resources and ambitions and few viable rivals, and ignores Taiwan’s missiles.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/02/wad-up-the-pentagons-propagandistic-china-report-and-toss-it-in-the-trash/#768072865437

◆ Global Times, 9-2-2020: Chinese Defense Ministry: the Pentagon report is "full of zero-sum game and cold war mentality," and apart from stigmatizing China's national defense expenditure and nuclear policy, it's also creating tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, which is a terrible mistake, China expresses firm opposition to it. The report also said"China is already ahead of the United States in certain areas," such as "shipbuilding," "land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles," and "integrated air defense systems." it's an old trick to ask for a big budget, because when Congress learns that "China is doing better than the US, they will get nervous and pass the budget easily." https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1199731.shtml

◆ The Hill, 9-3-2020: Taiwan needs to take advantage of asymmetric defense options, using its natural urban and mountainous terrain to deter Chinese attack, and Small, mobile and lethal systems such as Stinger surface-to-air missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, naval mines, and unmanned underwater vehicles, in conjunction with Taiwan’s indigenous HF-3

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/514481-how-taiwan-with-us-assistance-can-deter-chinas-overt-aggression

◆

● Forbes, 7-17-2020: the Taiwanese military plans to let the Chinese get close — then lob thousands of missiles at them. Taiwan's objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/17/if-china-invades-taiwan-could-target-shanghai-and-beijing-with-cruise-missiles/#438bd91230ff

●

● Bloomberg, 9-22-2020: Taiwan president Tsai does have one major problem: The Communist Party is threatening her life, with its Global Times newspaper saying over the weekend she would be “wiped out” in a war if she violated China’s anti-secession law. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/china-s-war-rhetoric-pushes-taiwan-to-boost-u-s-economic-ties

● The Hill, Hudson Org., 9-17-2020: an assault on Taiwan would not end in a quick victory. Taiwan’s armed forces draw from a robust reservist pool; it knows its territory far better than its adversary and will receive unimpeachable civilian support in a conflict. To win, China must occupy and subjugate the entire island — and an insurgency, based in Taiwan’s mountainous center, is to be expected. While this is a fight China considers winnable, it must bring to bear all its capabilities. China’s military is built to fight a short war, relying on long-range missiles and progressively layered defenses to isolate areas near the Chinese coastline. By raising the costs of American intervention, China seeks a political-military solution to its central strategic problem

https://www.hudson.org/research/16381-the-u-s-election-could-be-a-danger-for-taiwan-an-opportunity-for-china

● Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ... Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky. Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.

● Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island. With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

● Bloomberg, 10-8-2020: Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril "

● Politico,10-8-2020: Taiwan’s not ready to defend itself...lack of defense capacity and their lack of depth...What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out”

● Financial Times (UK),10-6-2020: If Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers. China has a different playbook - coercion

● Hong Kong Apple Daily ( 《蘋果動新聞》), 10-9-2020 : China's PLA will attack Taiwan by Blitzkrieg or lightning war to seal off and cut off the transportation (communication) way between Taiwan and Japan to avoid Taiwan's high-ranking officials running away and foreign country coming to rescue ; The better landing place for PLA large force will not be narrow Tamsui River or west coast, instead, very likely weak-defense east coast such as 宜蘭(YiLan) . Once main force came, Taiwan is almost finished. https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20201009/3HGWOL27GJDTZGS7GGYLDOJB3A/ by 台灣國防安全研究院國防資源與產業研究所長蘇紫雲、中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所兼任助理教授林穎佑，以及澳門軍事評論員黃東

● Global Times , 10-9-2020: Taiwan’s military drills ‘a futile cover-up show’ against PLA operations. The PLA has overwhelming military advantages over the island in terms of combat readiness of the troops, the advanced level of technology for weapons and equipment, numbers, tactics and strategies https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202977.shtml

● Wall Street Journal 8-30-2020: Fearing Hong Kong’s Fate, Taiwan Moves to Bolster Its Military Against China

● Financial Times (UK), 10-1-2020 (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military   (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Chinese military superiority / key:
　
contrast
Chinese military Taiwanese military

100,000 active personnel personnel 2m 163,000

50 combat-capable fixed-wing aircraft aircraft 3,330 568

5 submarines submarines 59 4

5 surface vessels above corvette size vessels 107 26

200 main battle tanks tanks 5,850 665

20 surface-to-surface missiles missiles 603   12

●   Daily Express (UK) , 2-14-2021:   Total military personnel 2,693,000 , Airpower 3,210,   Tanks 3,500 , Aircraft Carriers 2 , Armoured vehicles 33,000
       Destroyers 36 ,   Rocket projectors 2,650 , submarine 74   (ref to Global Fire Power Nov. 2020)
● Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020: The Taiwanese military is dwarfed by its Chinese counterpart – Taiwan has less than a fifth of China’s planes, a 10th of its armed forces personnel and just o.1% of its missiles.

● NIKKEI asia review (Japan) , 9-25-2020: Militarily, nuclear-armed China dwarfs Taiwan and has more than 10 times the budget and soldiers. It is reportedly negotiating with Taiwan a new $7 billion deal on seven major weapon systems, including sea mines, missiles and drones.
● aljazeera, 10-8-2020: China was engaged in a significant naval build-up probably not seen since Germany’s attempt to compete with Britain’s Royal Navy prior to WWI... to push US navy back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan”
　

● Forbes, 8-24-2020: China Can Capture Taiwan In Three Days, Say Former U.S. Officials

● Reuters, aljazeera, 9-22-2020: once Chinese aircraft were spotted Taiwanese fighters had just five minutes to scramble their fighters

www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/taiwan-tells-china-airspace-incursions-rise-200922055823777.html

● Express UK, 9-21-2020: Malcolm Davis, a former defence adviser, added the “probes” into Taiwan’s side of the line could be an effort to “provoke the Taiwanese air force to ‘shoot first’” which could justify further violence.

● Forbes, 9-21-2020: The air-launched SLAM-ER missiles and ground-launched Harpoon missiles arguably are the most important—and, to China, provocative—weapons in the current deal. “Taiwan is finally buying what it really needs to implement its asymmetric defense strategy,” Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University security expert, told The New York Times.

● East Asia Forum, Based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University

Taiwan’s security seems increasingly at risk. Taiwan’s real threat, however, is not in invasion but China’s mixture of sabre-rattling and integration-luring.

Though a conventional war may not be imminent, there are still unresolved vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s security. A recent debate on whether a PLA invasion could be curbed demonstrates how Taiwan’s partisan division extends to defence strategy disagreement. Efforts to boost Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities will stall if China successfully erodes Taiwan’s morale through soft strategies.

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/09/12/cross-strait-integration-by-force-or-favour/

● eurasian Times, 9-4-2020 : Forbes David Axe: the US's Chinese Military Power report missed the most important context by ignoring the extreme difficulty any army will have to face attempting an invasion of an island like Taiwan. Taiwan possesses a geographical advantage as the strait is stormy and the terrain between the likely landing zones and Taipei is rugged and mountainous. eurasian Times, 8-15-2020 :Taiwan’s New ‘Training Jets’ Are Capable Bombers That Can Strike Deep Into China

●

● Express UK, 9-11-2020: CHINA has conducted large-scale military exercises in an air defence zone controlled by Taiwan, leading ministers there to hold an emergency press conference. they were carried out on the Taiwanese side of what is known as the median line of the Taiwan Strait – an unofficial airspace boundary between Taiwan and China. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1334152/South-China-Sea-news-Taiwan-US-military-drills-peace-region-threat-world-war-3

● Bloomberg, 7-30-2020: ”Global Times (Chn): China wants peace but “is fully capable of destroying all of Taiwan’s military installations within a few hours, before seizing the island shortly after. ...researchers: While the People’s Liberation Army would seek to bombard the island with missiles and cyberattacks to quickly neutralize Taiwanese forces before they could fight back, the chances of pulling off such a comprehensive surprise assault are slim, ... Any failure to immediately knock out Taiwan’s forces, he wrote, would allow the island to repel an amphibious invasion or sustained bombing campaign...www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown

● Sunday Guardian (UK) 6-27-2020: Should China conquer Taiwan, that would free up about 50% of total PLA strength for potential deployment to the current Western Theater Command, facing India. "Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years": by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months. https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started

●

● Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.

●

● L.A. Times, 6-9-2020: The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster.

●

● Forbes, 6-7-2020: China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". ... (brief)

●

● Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities. PS: Taiwan's United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020: so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only skin-deep ...

●

● Forbes, 7-17-2020: the war could end quickly. Chinese rockets could pummel Taiwanese forces into submission... The worst-case scenario is that the invasion gets hung up on Taiwan’s fortified island of Penghu ... the war drags out for many bloody weeks.

● Apple Daily, editorial, 8-14-2020: Taiwan military takes a very weird strategy: Facing PLA's first wave strike, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels and caves, warships leave Taiwan, and await the US military comes to rescue, then they will return and join the war. The commentator questions how can those fighter jets take off if the runways are bombed by PLA's bomber and missiles ? tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/

ps: When studying in the US, I learnt from library that the highway can be served as war-time runway, so maybe those tunnels can be extended to highways nearby in case.

●

● Forbes, 7-10-2020: Failing to capture Penghu could, perhaps for a very long time, end Beijing’s reunification-by-force gambit

● Express UK, 9-14-2020: Beijing’s sabre-rattling over Taiwan is hardly new, but … we’ve seen a significant stepping up of Chinese military activity and an intense propaganda effort to isolate Taiwan and assert political primacy in the region.”a “pre-emptive effort to coerce Taiwan would be immensely risky for Xi, but leaders under pressure do risky things

● Forbes Advocate, 9-13-2020: China's military capabilities dwarf those of the island of 23 million in numerical terms, although any invasion of Taiwan would be complex and would carry major political risks https://www.forbesadvocate.com.au/story/6922776/china-says-us-poses-threat-to-world-peace/?cs=5461

● US News , 9-20-2020: China's air force on Saturday put out a video showing its nuclear capable H-6 bombers, which have been involved in many Chinese fly-bys of Taiwan, exercising. www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-20/taiwan-president-says-drills-show-china-is-threat-to-whole-region

● Apple Daily, editorial, 7-6-2020: a marine amphibious landing craft of Marine '99 army-brigade' ( main force of Taiwan military) was overturned in an exercise recently, Taiwan military's training and combat capacity are suspicious if these accidents happened repeatedly. China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion: sudden increasing pressure to war preparedness and hasty work probably are main reasons resulting in many accidents and incidents happened in recent years. China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion: Due to Taiwan president making official inspection, the military combines 4 drills to one per year, and transforms Han Kuang Exercise to be a big show, which damage military training , high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission.
www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv ; www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv ;

●

● China's Military Power Report / annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019

★


"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ... aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019 that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan, China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue. 　 The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare". Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing. (see pic. right) 　 usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.
◆ Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization 4-28-2020 https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2 April 24, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress. ◆ Chinese aircraft-carrier, 6-22-2020, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme 　 ◆ China Military Power report 2019 https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/China_Military_Power_FINAL_5MB_20190103.pdf Core Chinese Military Capabilities: Today’s PLA is still far from being able to deploy large numbers of conventional forces globally, but China has developed nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities that can reach potential adversaries across the globe.
No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 11-14-2020, 5-20-2020

Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China. Therefore, Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as annual report above. (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school, National ChungCheng University)

● United Daily (聯合報社評), opinion, 5- 7- 2020 "國軍「官不聊生」實況" https://udn.com/news/story/11091/4547068?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2

Taiwan military lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments , which results in all kinds of corrupt practices, such as soldiers/officers under the table imported stuffs from outsiders, kept equipments on the shelves to avoid damages, or made fake check list ....... for years, Taiwan military authority invested logistics sources far from needed. (國軍長年對後勤資源的投注，距離理想狀況差太遠。) ● Apple Daily, editorial, 5-10-2020: Taiwan's military logistics system is a hot potato, no one wants to touch it. (國軍後勤體制是燙手的痼疾)

●

● New York times, 5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

●

● New York times, 5-18-2017: For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States. Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue. Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals/

/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion ( ps: China's Baidu, 10-15-2017: Taiwanese reservists 3 million in total; Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.

●

	nuclear bomb	neutron bomb	hydrogen bomb
countries	US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Israel, India, N. Korea, UK, France	US, Russia, China, India, France	US, Russia, China, France, UK, N. Korea

ｓｏｕｒｃｅ：　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI ＂年代向錢看＂Next TV news, 5-8-2020

Daily Express, 9-1-2020: nuclear weapons - Rus 6850，US 6550，France 300，Chn 280，UK 215，Pakistan 145，
India 135，Israel 80

pic. left: Ａｔ　５－７－２０２０，　Taiwan Intelligence chief replied a law-maker with phrase :

Taiwan should pursue good fortune and avoid disaster once military conflict between China and the US occurring

in the western Pacific near Taiwan, we won't get in the trouble water ...
　

● Washington Post, 5-21-20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need to expand China's nuclear
and ballistic missile arsenal after the State Department published a paper arguing for the fitting of low-yield
nuclear warheads onto submarine-launched missiles.

●ｔｈｅ　ｅｓｓｅｎｃｅ　ｏｆ　Ｃｈｉｎａ　ｕｎｉｆｉｃａｔｉｏｎ　ｉｓｓｕｅ　ｉｓ　＂　Ｃｈｉｎａ　ｃｏｎｆｒｏｎｔｉｎｇ　ｔｈｅ　ＵＳ＂　

ｐｉｃ right：　both Ｃｈｉｎａ　ａｎｄ　ｔｈｅ　ＵＳ　ｏｗｎ　ｎｕｃｌｅａｒ　ｂｏｍｂ，Neutron bomb， hydrogen bomb

（　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI ）

 ｐｉｃ：　Ｆｏｒ Strategic deterrence，Taiwan needs 500 pieces of  雲峰飛彈 missiles

雲峰飛彈 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

● South China Morning Post, 7-11-2020: Missiles are a key element of Taiwan’s defence strategy,
Taiwan has a stockpile of missiles that by some estimates is the world’s biggest in terms of number per unit of area. the Taipei-based China Times newspaper has put the total at more than 6,000.
brief : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3092791/taiwan-missile-tech-aimed-keeping-pla-attack-bay

● Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons.

Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon. “The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that can survive an
initial Chinese attack and be resilient and lethal for weeks or months,” according to Scott Harold, an analyst at RAND, a California think tank.

● Voice of America, 5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out already
with surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles and 66 aircraft in the past.

● South China Morning Post (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric)
Taiwanese missiles are increasing in range and are capable of striking cities in inner China, including strategic targets
　

● The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020:
Former Chinese military general 喬良 being interviewed by South China Morning Post, and Hong Kong
media (紫荊雜誌 Bauhinia Magazine...) concluded that China can't expect "Peaceful reunification" any more, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force
(「文統無望、只能武統」), when the right time (China-US arm wrestling game done) comes, Chinese army will kill any one on their way,
no matter monk or Buda. The Chinese govt. responded that There is no room for negotiations when it comes to China's reunification.

● Liberty Times, 7-29-2020: The PLA can't defeat Taiwan military within 72 hours, but it's hard to tell once more than about 5000 special agents / sleepers in the shadow join the war. /   林保華 column writer
Formosa TV, 2-25-2019: Taipei mayor Ko: American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.
CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week.
The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
Global Times, Mar 2018: Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.

● The Drive, 9-22-2020: In peacetime, the presence of the Wan Chien missiles on Penghu is in keeping with Taiwan’s strategy of presenting Beijing with a credible deterrent, and should that deterrent fail, they would help defend against a PLA attack and possible invasion, ... www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36654/taiwan-displays-air-launched-cruise-missiles-at-air-base-in-heart-of-taiwan-strait

● Xinhua (China) 2020-09-21 : China will take legitimate countermeasures in response to recent visits of U.S. high-ranking officials to Taiwan, including measures targeting relevant individuals http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09/21/c_139385296.htm

● Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 ：The 1st step for Taiwanese military reform is HONESTY ( 國軍改革從誠實開始)
Taiwan navy under fire for letting sailors infected with coronavirus into community (South China Morning Post, 4-21-2020), Taiwan will quarantine 700 sailors after three came down with the coronavirus following a mission to a nearby Pacific island. (New York Post, 4-18-20)
About Taiwan Navy's 'Friendly Fleet''s story, no matter declassified or easy-to-master info. , Taiwan' s military issued different versions within one day, even played a slapstick show - slapping face each other. The public strongly questioned their honesty. The military failed to handle small risk like this, how can we trust their ability to face a war. (brief) ● UDN (聯合報社論)／十人一口罩 , editorial 4- 21- 2020: In average, Taiwanese government allocated one face mask to ten soldiers before the infection event, how to assure army's combat capability and basic quality ??
● Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 5-1-2020 ：Since taking enlisting-system, Taiwan military always failed to recruit enough number of soldiers, the quality of candidates to join the military- school examinations is not as good as expected...

Obscurantisme in democratic Taiwan ― 'Psychological Warfare' strategy of defense

Some Taiwan's popular media and politicians spoke loudly about N.Y. Times (8-17-2020): "U.S. Tries to Bolster Taiwan’s Status", but left out N.Y. Times (8-30-2020): "Taiwan cannot count on US as a matter of strategy" or Economist (8-30-2020): "The island cannot rely on American help". Even Taiwan's former president Ma was lashed out by lots of media and politicians for his opinion "US army won't come to the island's rescue" . The authors (Retired vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral James Winnefeld Jr., ( 2011 to 2015), CIA former director Michael Morell ) and the US Naval Institute's Proceedings were sort of put down for similar reason ― their article in Proceedings (2020-August) predicts it's 'too late' for the US comes to rescue Taiwan after the war broke out.
Some Taiwanese in power intended to apply a thick coat of whitewash, misled many of their nationals to believe the US army will or very likely will come to Taiwan's rescue once Chinese PLA attacks Taiwan, despite the majority of Americans opposing the use of US troops to Taiwan-China war, and quite some Western media giving "wishful thinking" warnings. Brookings 9-4-2020: caution that improvements in Chinese military power may mean that indirect defense of Taiwan ( fundamental decoupling of our economy from China. etc... they might not immediately rescue Taiwan) could be better in some contingencies.

Sept. 4, 2020

★ Han Kuang exercises, a major annual event for Taiwan armed forces

	media	analysis & comments (brief)
UK 　　 US	NBC News, 7-17-2020	Although Taiwan's military is well trained and equipped with mostly U.S.-made hardware, China has huge numerical superiority. 。https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-conducts-major-annual-military-exercise-amid-rising-china-tensions-n1234023
	Associated Press, Yahoo News, 7-16-2020	One helicopter crashed when returning to base from another drill, killing the pilot and co-pilot. 　 https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-holds-military-drills-against-053222062.html
	Reuters, 7-16-2020	F-16 and domestically made Ching-kuo fighter jets launched strikes and tanks raced across inland scrub, firing shells to destroy targets on the beach. China is adding advanced equipment such as stealth fighters and new ballistic missiles.
China	Global Times, 7-16-2020, 7-21-2020	The military mishap during the Han Kuang drills indicates that Taiwan's most important war games are becoming increasingly unrealistic. It also shows a widening military gap across the Taiwan Straits. 　 The counter-landing drill was designed to simulate PLA tactics, the exercise started with Taiwan military's fighter jets attacking the landing fleet, with a warship as support, after which artillery forces, attack helicopters and tanks fired and eventually "effectively stopped the hostile forces' landing operation," Taiwan media reported. 　 After watching the drill, military observers soon pointed out that its setting is nearly impossible, because it assumed Taiwan would automatically hold air superiority, Taiwan's weapons and equipment would remain intact prior to the counter-landing operation, and its troops would not suffer losses during the battle. According to a computer combat simulation published by the Chinese mainland's Naval and Merchant Ships magazine in May, as well as many other military analysts, a reunification-by-force operation by the PLA will very likely start with intensive waves of missile and rocket attacks that would neutralize most of Taiwan's air defense capabilities, and PLA warplanes would then seize air superiority and sweep enemies, with PLA warships, including two aircraft carriers, also engaging in naval battles. PLA landing operations would take place after this first round of assault, meaning that the scenario Taiwan military simulated will not happen, because any weapons and troops they deployed in the drills will be mostly destroyed before their counter-landing operation, Song Zhongping, a military expert, said the exercises are a naive and meaningless show, as they were set under ideal conditions. 　 https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194770.shtml; https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195064.shtml

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Why does Beijing keep sending military aircrafts into Taiwan's airspace ?
　

◆ National Interest,
6-27-2020
in an overt attempt to gather intelligence, conduct reconnaissance missions, and intercept U.S planes in the region.

◆ Global Times,
6-28-2020

　
the PLA operations from both the east and southwest of Taiwan indicate that the PLA is training to suppress the potential US and Japanese reinforcements coming from Guam and the Ryukyu Islands through the Miyako Strait east of Taiwan and through the Bashi, Balintang, and Babuyan channels southwest of Taiwan. The PLA could use these operations to effectively lockdown the area from foreign forces while ensuring that Taiwan's forces cannot escape...

　

◆ New York Times, 6-26-2020
China’s Military Provokes Its Neighbors, but the Message Is for the United States... When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...
　

◆ EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020
many missions speculatively aimed at intercepting US jets flying near the island.
　

◆ Express (UK), 6-30-2020
Observers claimed the intrusion was both for practice and to caution the US against defending Taiwan.
　

　

●

China's strategy of attacking Taiwan
	type	English	Chinese
1	cyber warfare	PLA launchs cyber attacks, to penetrate CPU of Air Force Air Defense and Missile Command (Taipei), Republic of China Armed Forces Joint Operations Command Center (Taipei), etc.	網路攻擊, 入侵中央控制電腦, 劍指防空指揮系統, 三軍衡山所等
2	‘unrestricted’ fire-power warfare	PLA Rocket Forcetroops bombing like heavy rains the entire Taiwan	火箭軍彈雨轟台
3	marine war	PLA aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines attack Eastern Taiwan and paralyze 佳山基地 ( main air force base )	航空母艦戰群, 核潛艇, 進攻台灣東部, 癱瘓佳山基地
4	economic warfare	Cutting off marine traffic to Southern China sea, etc	截斷海上交通線
5	invasion of remote islands	Invasion of Kinmen(金門), Pratas, Itu Aba Island / Taiping Island (太平島)	攻奪外島
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIrQ2krhTE Next TV, 5-26-2020
The SUN, UK, 5-25-2020 (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11703654/china-deploys-aircraft-carriers-stoke-tensions-us-warning-new-cold-war/) in the China's state-controlled Naval and Merchant Ships Magazine: In around four minutes, Taiwan’s air power is badly damaged and those Taiwanese aircraft that have already taken off, will be shot down with S400 missiles. "After nearly two hours … all anti-air defence bases are destroyed, and most of Taiwan’s warplanes are damaged. What’s awaiting them is the second round of attacks after dawn."

●

● United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp. China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

●

● ◆ Formosa TV, 2-25-2019: Taipei mayor Ko: some American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.
     ◆ CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week. ps: The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
     ◆ Global Times, Mar 2018: Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.

●

● Global FirePower, 2020 : Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2. Russia 3. Chn 4. India 5. Japan 6. S Korea 16. Indonesia 17. Saudi Arabia 19. Australia 22. Vietnam 23. Thai 25. N korea 26. TW 35. Myanmar 44. Malaysia 45. UAE 46. Banladesh 48. Philippines 51. Singapore ). In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18. However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan; Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc.

●

● New York times, 5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

●

Will China strike on Taiwan ?

●

	◆ Bloomberg, 2022-10-7: The concern in Taipei is that President Xi Jinping may be tempted to launch an attack to divert attention from a faltering Chinese economy and high unemployment. China denies any such intention... there’s no sign an invasion is imminent. finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
	◆ New York Times, 2021-4-9: "military conflicts often seem unlikely until the moment they begin", The Atlantic : a Chinese invasion “could happen at any moment” and that Biden should be prepared
	◆ Wall Street Journal, 2021-4-22: there are no signs of an imminent move by Beijing to take the self-ruled island
	◆ Washington Post, 2021-4-15: The confrontation with China over Taiwan approaches. The U.S. must make its position clear
	◆ Foreign Policy's China Brief, 2021-4-14: The chance of actual Chinese invasion still remains small
	◆ Telegragh, 1-29-2021: Do not underestimate the importance of sovereignty to the regime in Beijing. Taiwan has a right to declare independence but it is sensible to actually implement it at the risk of a devastating war.
	◆ US News, 1-29-2021: China Escalates War Rhetoric Over Taiwan: Do Not Test Our Determination
	◆ Reuters, Independent, BBC, FoxNews, NY Post, aljazeera, 1-28-2021: China warns Taiwan independence ‘means war’
	◆ Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity (~2022), experts fear
	◆ New York Times,10-5-2020: China’s tone shifts toward fighting words, the torrent of bombast online and in state media in recent weeks is potentially ominous. The prospect of war remains remote, but the risk is that the propaganda could translate into more provocative actions.
	◆ Bloomberg, 10-8-2020: Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay
	◆ National Interest, 11-20-2020: Would China really invade Taiwan? Maybe ! But the costs would be nuts
	◆ Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past
	◆ The Hill, 10-25-2020: ...the looming possibility of a Taiwan Strait crisis. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will mark the 100th anniversary of its 1921 founding by striving to reunify with Taiwan.
	◆ Washington Post, 10-26-2020: military exercises ..., aggressive moves... and jingoistic editorials in China's state-run press — have raised concerns in the West that Xi is readying China for a new war. The target in this case would be Taiwan
	◆ Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT: whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it
	◆ Politico, 10-8-2020: What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out,”
	◆ Financial Times, 10-19-2020: There is no sign that an invasion force of this size (1m) is being assembled.
	◆ BusinessInsider,10-4-2020: Since armed conflict would be disastrous for all, it is essential that the US and the rest of the international community do everything they can to deter Beijing from taking unnecessary risks that could quickly spiral out of control
	◆ Washington Examiner 10-17-2020: China’s saber-rattling in the Straits of Taiwan has stoked American worry that Beijing might seek to conquer the island by force. It’s a near-term problem. it could get worse in the next couple of years
	◆ New York Times, 7-2-2020: The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing. Yet the two sides are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise.
	◆ DW , 9-19-2020: the world has underestimated the severity of this flashpoint and that there's the potential for war over Taiwan — I think itself is an underestimation," said Ian Easton ... : "2020 to 2030 is the most dangerous time on earth, in my opinion, for a conflict with China over these disputed territories."
	◆ Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020: An invasion may not be imminent but experts say armed forces could have capacity to mount one by the end of the decade
	◆ New Zealand Herald, 10-4-2020: China, Taiwan tensions could result in all-out war with the US
	◆ National Interest, 9-26-2020: The probability of war ... is growing in the Taiwan Strait. "The deluge is closer than many think"
	◆ Express (UK), 10-3-2020: WW3 warning: China to RAMP up Taiwan take over plans if huge US arms deal is agreed
	◆ Forbes, 9-29-2020: Beijing’s recent actions may indicate that its willingness to take risks is increasing. Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated. it is important to bear in mind that arming Taiwan isn’t just about keeping the island free. If Beijing breaks out of the first island chain, everything changes in the Western Pacific
	◆ Express UK, 9-14-2020: CHINA could take advantage of the current crises crippling the world's powers and increase its influence over the South China Sea in the next months risking war
	◆ The Guardian, 9-22-2020: The Chinese foreign ministry’s comment, there was no so-called median line in the Taiwan Strait “as Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory” , is equivalent of destroying the status quo.”. Global Times (China), 9-23-2020: Taiwan island, US fabricate a ‘median line,’ sign of weakness: experts
	◆ Express (UK), 9-22-2020: Taiwan tinderbox: China could launch missile over island if US dares to visit, says expert
	◆ foreign affairs, 6-18-2020: A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ...
	◆ France 24, 9-16-2020: Taiwanese FM on China: 'After Hong Kong, Taiwan might be next'
	◆ CNN, 9-21-2020: Global Times of China: The "PLA drills this time are not a warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover,"
	◆ Washington Post, 9-18-2020: China launches combat drills in Taiwan strait warns us not to play with fire, Taiwan warned that it could devolve into all-out war
	◆ Express (UK), 9-22-2020: World war 3 warning: CHINA has issued its latest threat to Taiwan, warning the state to "prepare for dire consequences" if it continues to strengthen ties with the US.
	◆ Guardian 9-17-2020: Taipei fears “a real possibility” of war
	◆ NY Times, 9-19-2020: The Chinese aircraft, including two H-6 strategic bombers, crossed the median line between the mainland and Taiwan in the strait from four different directions
	◆ New York Times, 9-18-2020: U.S. Official Visits Taiwan, and China Warns of Consequences “Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States”
	◆ BusinessInsider, Politico, Stars and Strips , 9-18-2020: "The signal from Beijing is very, very clear, but does that mean a prelude to war? No, far from it," said former deputy defense minister in Taiwan.
	◆ Forbes, 9-2-2020: Even though the likelihood of that ( invasion of Taiwan) happening remains low, the report (US Defense) shows that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor
	◆ Express, 9-20-2020: Tensions between Taiwan and China have risen to unforeseen levels this year.
	◆ Stars and Strips , 9-18-2020: Despite of the frequency of the exercises, analysts said it does not mean imminent war. "No, far from it”
	◆ VOA, 8-21-2020: a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan... could happen as early as next year... the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity... Joseph Biden: the U.S. has not been obligated to defend Taiwan ... There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan
	◆ Bloomberg 7-30-2020: Now fears are growing that Xi wants to cement his place alongside Mao and Deng by conquering Taiwan... Of the many US-China conflicts right now — none is more dangerous over the long haul than that involving Taiwan
	◆ Bloomberg, 8-20-2020: The danger of a Chinese assault on Taiwan is growing. And the U.S., which has an ambiguous security commitment to Taipei, might well lose if it joined such a war on Taiwan’s behalf
	◆ Guardian, 8-18-2020: The increasingly assertive behaviour from China suggests that Beijing’s options to annex Taiwan are shrinking
	◆ Express (UK), 7-29-2020: Harvard prof. Ezra Vogel : Unfortunately, there is possibility of an armed confrontation. Nobody wants it, and everybody would lose if a war erupts.
	◆ Foreign Policy 8-4-2020: CCP may be increasingly tempted to act against Taiwan. Helping to deter any such aggression doesn’t require nukes, but it should nonetheless be an urgent national security priority for Washington
	◆ The Australian 8-4-2020: Xi has made it clear that taking back Taiwan would be the crowning achievement in his vision to restore China’s place as a great power. we tend to underestimate the importance the US puts on the defence of Taiwan.
	◆ SCMP, 8-21-2020: There is disturbing evidence that US President Donald Trump considers relations with Taiwan expendable in the context of a deal he could make with China
	◆ US Naval Institute, Proceedings, Aug. 2020: 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making... such an opportunity would only appear every few decades...for achievement of a long-held goal — to bring Taiwan back into China
	◆ Ian Easton on Taipei Times, 7-27-2020: if Washington signals its resolve to defend Taiwan, the CCP could lash out. Knowing that risk, American leaders avoid it. This kind of short-sighted behavior is like a cruise line captain steering his ship north, into iceberg country, to avoid patches of rough water in the south...Wars have occurred only when ambitious dictators saw American indecision and miscalculated ...That’s why, in the 2020s, Xi Jinping (習近平) is probably going to invade Taiwan if nothing major changes. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/07/27/2003740606
	◆ National Interest 7-18-2020: This ( attack on Taiwan) will be much more difficult and costly than Hong Kong has been, but ... for these people, that cost is deemed as necessary and they will gladly pay it. Unless the United States binds itself to protect the independence of Taiwan on pain of war, Taiwan is next.
	◆ Daily Express, 8-15-2020: CHINA will look to punish Taiwan after the US Health Secretary, Alex Azar, visited this week and will eventually "invade" the state, "The Chinese will seek to punish Taiwan because they can’t punish Americans"
	◆ Daily Express, 8-13-2020: World War 3: China 'ready' for conflict with US over Taiwan row ... Peking University Bo: there could be parties with the US military aiming to create a small-scale and “controllable” conflict with their Chinese counterparts
	◆ CNN, 8-11-2020 : Beijing's warplanes have only crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") intentionally three times since 1999 (ps: Newsweek 8-12-2020: since 1949)-- once in March 2019, in February of this year, and again on Monday (Azar met with Taiwan President Tsai)
	◆ Express (UK) 7-18-2020: MILITARY tensions between China and US escalated further today, after a strong ally of President Xi warned that Beijing would invade US-backed Taiwan "early next year"
	◆ CNBC, 8-5-2020: Taiwan is in a ‘delicate’ situation with China as military drills intensify... in the near-term, they do not have the capacity to really ‘retake’ Taiwan, ... over the years ... not a scintilla of evidence of flexibility on these kinds of core interest questions, and that’s what makes Taiwan so dangerous
	◆ Japan Times, 8-10-2020: Trump’s attacks on China reach new peak of ‘pent-up’ grievances，the Chinese side is unlikely to “overreact” to an action that has been taken less than three months before the U.S. presidential election
	◆ Express UK, 8-10-2020: China and Taiwan spark huge war fears as missiles sent to coast and navy deployed, these missiles "are able to destroy all military bases and government buildings on the island accurately"
	◆ aljazeera 8-12-2020: Experts in Taipei ... say an invasion is unlikely any time soon
	◆ The Week (UK) , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020 : FT isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?"
	◆ New Zealand Herald, 8-9-2020: Tension reaching boiling point! Beijing mobilises invasion craft along coast, satellite images reportedly show amphibious armoured vehicles and mobile missile launchers massing at military bases near the island nation...series of "combat readiness" exercises over the disputed South China Sea, with combat aircraft and naval vessels...
	◆ Global Times, 8-14-2020: Chn. warns: being a piece in the US chessboard could lead to checkmate
	◆ Daily Mail, 7-22-2020: China has made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan.
	◆ FoxNews 7-8-2020: The passage of a national security law on Hong Kong has put Taiwan on edge, with pro-democracy activists fearing that Beijing will soon have the self-ruled island in its crosshairs
	◆ Bloomberg, 6-24-2020: We may well see a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait before the decade's out.
	◆ LOWY institute 7-9-2020: Xi isn’t such a realist when it comes to Taiwan. Beijing views Taiwan in largely political terms – preoccupied with “the great trend of history” towards unification.
	◆ foreign affairs, 6-18-2020: A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ...
	◆ USA Today 7-5-2020: Taiwan has never been more important to American interests.
◆◆◆	◆ Reuters 5-22-2020: In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word "peaceful" in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades, an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral.
	◆ Washington Post, 5-30-2020: China vows to 'smash' any Taiwan independence move as Trump weighs sanctions.
	◆ Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Beijing were to interpret ... coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ ) ◦
	◆ Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Given how little Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong has cost it to date, we are concerned that Beijing will draw the wrong conclusions about the costs of future coercion against Taiwan
	◆ Washington Post 7-7-2020: HK national security law could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan ... China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy
	◆ Washington Post, 7-22-2020: in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. But as a precondition for talks, China demanded that Tsai acknowledge the “one China” principle... Inside China, the government has faced growing calls from hawkish military pundits and nationalist commentators to grasp the current strategic window to seize Taiwan
	◆ Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-7-2020 : Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory.
	◆ Financial Times, 6-3-2020: if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force. Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent.
	◆ Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020: by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan, peaceful or non-peaceful unification, but as Taiwan is expected to be “defiant…military action will be the only solution.” Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.
	◆ Express (uk), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan. Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest )
	◆ National University of Singapore visiting scholar Drew Thompson on《自由亞洲電台》, SETN, NextTV, 6-4-2020: A war in Taiwan Strait will break out within 5 years ... China strikes Taiwan around 2024. (「台海5年內必戰」「侵台時間大概在2024年」)
	◆ New York Times, 6-26-2020: When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ... American warships through the South China Sea and stepped up support for Taiwan and its military ... the possibility of confrontation would increase as the U.S. presidential campaign heated up
	◆ National Interest, 8-28-2020: Could China Successfully Blockade Taiwan? China hopes direct action will yield clean and swift results, letting it present Asia, America, and the world a fait accompli — a done deal
	◆ Daily Express, 8-17-2020: WW3 fears escalate as China sends warship to South China Sea in warning to US and Taiwan
	◆ The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 : Beijing’s red line would be Taiwan declaring independence.
	◆ EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020: the PLA troops have high war readiness in all fronts, but despite India-China border tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, the risk of a full-scale war remains very low thanks to the PLA’s strategic deterrence.
	◆ The bulwark 6-24-2020: If Taiwanese independence were ever formally recognized by the United States, the CCP would almost certainly issue military threats and send naval vessels into the strait––whatever was necessary to bring the Taiwanese to heel.
	◆ VICE, 7-24-2020: there is a slim chance that China’s military will cross the Taiwan Strait anytime soon. facing a Chinese party congress in 2022 that will determine the renewal of his chairmanship of the party—Taiwan could become a bargaining chip
	◆ The diplomat 6-3-2020: the 3 flashpoints (one is Taiwan) that could turn a us-china cold war hot
	◆ NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
	◆ Washington Monthly 3-11-2020 : internal pressures within Chinese politics may drive PRC authorities to act recklessly before the 2022 party conference, in which Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term as the country’s president.
	◆ The Guardian UK, 5-20-2020: While analysts believe an invasion is not likely, Chinese state media have been quick to point out China’s military might. “What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength,” said an editorial from the state-run Global Times, published immediately after Tsai’s speech.
	◆ Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: calls for “reunification by force” were growing on the mainland ...
	◆ People's Daily (China), 5-24-2020 : Chinese PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
	◆ Singapore's The Straits Times, 5-20-2020: China now has the strength to "overwhelm the Taiwan military and deter the US military". warned by Global Times.
	◆ USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049.
	◆ Freebeacon 5-17-2018 : 2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan ...
	◆ The China Times (中時) editorial, 5-23-2020: Reunification by PLA force will not come on stage immediately, but some accidental events may happen in the future. The China Times, editorial, 5-24-2020 has same view-point.
◆◆◆	◆ The Liberty Times (自由時報), editorial, 5-25-2020 : Communist China's new strategy will take hard line as principal axis against Taiwan...。Communist China's pressure will be stronger and stronger。
	◆ L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020 ( references )：　Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island. Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent.
	◆ Annual Report to US Congress ( Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC ), 8-17-2018: Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force
	◆ South China Morning Post, "紫荊雜誌" (Bauhinia Magazine), Hong Kong internet media, The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020: Former PLA general 喬良 concluded that "Peaceful reunification" is hopeless, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force (「文統無望、只能武統」). Taiwan issue is, in essence, China-USA issue, when the right time ( China-US arm wrestling game done ) comes, Chinese army will kill any one no matter monks or Buda, on their way. Bloomberg 6-24-2020: 喬良 :an invasion of Taiwan could be catastrophic for China: Even if the US doesn't join the war...
	◆ Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior...
	◆ Washington Post 7-15-2020: President Trump’s policy of international retreat and disregard for allies, alongside Xi’s growing assertiveness and expansionism, put Taipei at the intersection of the two ominous trends ... Biden is committed to the status quo in Taiwan
	◆ The Times, 6-4-2020: "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order "。/ UK former FP Jeremy Hunt
	◆ Economist 5-28-2020: America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong
	◆ Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News, Liberty Times (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned that the lack of international sanctions may lead Beijing into believing that it could overtake Hong Kong and Taiwan without consequences. (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942917 )
	◆ The Times, "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order ", 6-4-2020: 若遲早要發生軍事衝突，不如先下手為強。因為台灣在解放軍的飛彈射程內，且孤立主義的川普總統干預外國事務的可能性大減。/ 英國前外相 Jeremy Hunt
	◆ The Trumpet, 6-29-2020: In the months ahead, we should expect to see China continue using disruption, isolation and constraint in its Taiwan policy... today, with America weakening, and with China understanding that time is no longer on its side with Taiwan
	◆ L.A. Times 6-9-2020: HK Univ.: Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty.
	◆ CATO institute, The American Conservative, 6-8-2020 : If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go.
	◆ John Bolton : (Taiwan could be the next ) Taiwan was right near the top of the list, and would probably stay there as long as Trump remained President, not a happy prospect... (Jun. 2020)。 Washington Post: 10-18-2019 " Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria Could Taiwan be the next ": Could an unscripted phone call between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping greenlight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan Given Trump's impulsive nature, that chilling scenario — and its baleful ramifications — can't be ruled out
	◆ Global Times, 6-30-2020: US using Taiwan as ‘last card’ may only speed up reunification...PLA aircraft could fly over island if US invites Taiwan military for exercise
	◆ Apple Daily (蘋果日報 ) 8-18-2018, headline news - US report warns China signals its readiness for unification by military force ― anytime.
	◆ Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)
	◆ United Daily (聯合報), 8-18-2018 : China still seek unification by force - Taiwan losing military edge. China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan. ps: Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.
	◆ The Interpreter , The LOWY Institute ( think tank in Australia ), 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security. Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.　https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard
	◆ CGTN 6-22-2020: China's the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council; Chinese P.M. Lee ( 5-28-2020 ): "We are willing to strive for peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and greatest efforts.", "Chinese don't fight Chinese".
	◆ SCMP, 7-22-2020: The PLA will definitely use force to take Taiwan back if the US provokes Beijing, because foreign force intervention is one of the three taboos listed by the Anti-Secession Law” in China ... Xi may plan to achieve his goal in the next five to 10 years, but current tensions with the US may push him “to speed up the process of reunification”
	◆ Taiwan's intelligence chief told a law-maker that the probability of China attacking Taiwan at this moment is up to 60~70% ... / SETN 3-26-2020
◆◆◆	◆ If some day the democracy and freedom in Taiwan becomes a model for the world, it will be more difficult for PLA to attack Taiwan and kill Taiwanese.

● FEARS soar ●

Express (UK), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan. Express (UK) 6-10-2020: South China Sea crisis ― Taiwan invasion fears soar. Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong- protest ) express.co.uk 5-30-2020: Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring Taiwan. Financial Times 5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone. Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China. https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d The SUN, UK, 5-25-2020: ... the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland. The New York Times at 11-4-2017 noted that Taiwan’s historical advantages ( geography and the US support ) in deterring a potential attack has been “eroded or negated” in that Chinese military is "more potent".

US military VS. China military [ People's Liberation Army ]

China's possible response to Pelosi visiting Taiwan
US News, 2022-7-19	China Signals a Military Response to a Taiwan Visit by Pelosi
NY Times, 2022-7-25	...Pelosi's trip. Better to postpone rather than risk war. nytimes.com/2022/07/25/us/politics/china-taiwan-biden-pelosi.html
Washington Post, 2022-7-23	Key U.S. allies in Asia have expressed concerns about a visit that they believe will be viewed provocatively washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/23/pelosi-taiwan-trip-biden-military-concerns/
Washington Post, 2022-7-21	Biden: U.S. military opposes Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/21/biden-china-nancy-pelosi-taiwan-military/
Washington Post, 2022-7-22	The U.S. military certainly is not prepared to fight two major wars simultaneously washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/22/nancy-pelosi-should-ignore-china-biden-go-to-taiwan/
EurAsia Times, 2022-7-23	US Worried That China Could...Shoot-Down ‘Invading’ Aircraft eurasiantimes.com/us-worried-that-china-could-declare-no-fly-zone-over-taiwan-shoot-down-invading-aircraft-amid-pelosis-visit/
France24, 2022-7-25	Biden's administration which fears the trip may cross red lines for China -- and that there is no exit path ... China might feel that they have to do something dramatic france24.com/en/live-news/20220725-as-pelosi-eyes-taiwan-trip-us-anxious-on-china-red-lines
CNN, 2022-7-22	China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan...China could also respond by flying fighter jets further into Taiwan's self-declared air defense zone, which could trigger a response from Taiwan and the US edition.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html
FT,2022-7-25	Taiwan fears fallout from planned Nancy Pelosi visit threatens US security commitment ... China might retaliate against Taiwan if Pelosi went ahead with her trip. ft.com/content/8145aa97-1c46-4e5e-9ec8-1afa139a4a54
Global Times (China), 2022-7-25	Pelosi's visit may accelerate a military showdown globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271380.shtml
Global Times (China), 2022-7-19	If Pelosi goes to Taiwan, it will be a huge historic mistake for Washington...Defense Minister Wei Fenghe (Jun.2022): "If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight, and we will fight at all costs." "It would be a huge historic mistake for Washington to let these words fall on deaf ears."
Bloomberg, 2022-7-22	responses from China: Missile Test Near Taiwan or Flying Over Taiwan or Shadowing Pelosi’s Trip, etc finance.yahoo.com/news/china-might-respond-taiwan-visit-102743247.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

● War On The Rocks, 2021-3-1: CAN THE UNITED STATES PREVENT A WAR OVER TAIWAN? warontherocks.com/2021/03/can-the-united-states-prevent-a-war-over-taiwan/

● Washington Post, 1-28-2021: Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a U.S.-China Clash / The dispute (one-China principle) has reopened the Taiwan debate in Washington, raising the stakes for U.S. President Joe Biden’s efforts to counter China without sliding into a war. washingtonpost.com/business/why-taiwan-is-the-biggest-risk-for-a-us-china-clash/2021/01/27/185d96f6-60eb-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html

● Wall Street Journal, 2-1-2021: Taiwan Defense: A Hard Problem for the U.S. / American carrier battle groups within hundreds of miles of the Chinese coast would have difficulty surviving a coordinated attack by many hundreds of Chinese missiles...Will the extremely war-weary American public stand by for this unnecessary slaughter?

● NY Times, 1-30-2021: a war with China probably won’t happen. Yet if it does, it might begin in Pratas or Kinmen... it is a considerably greater risk than it had been for decades

◆

China vs. US in Indo-Pacific region Daily Express, 2021-3-10 express.co.uk/news/world/1408130/World-War-3-news-China-US-Indo-Pacific-conflict-Taiwan-Beijing-Joe-Biden
	"modern multi-warfare” ships, such as destroyers and frigates	warplanes	missiles	assault ships	defense budget
China	48	625 fighter aircraft and 175 bombers	over 1,000 ballistic missiles	two aircraft carriers and eight amphibious assault ships	$178,000 billion
US	12	250 (50 are advanced ‘5th generation’ fighters such as the F-22 Raptor. )	only has two THAAD anti-ballistic missile batteries in the area to shoot them down.	one aircraft carriers and four amphibious assault ships	$740 billion

● Financial Times (UK), 1-28-2021: Chinese warplanes simulated attacking US carrier near Taiwan ft.com/content/e6f6230c-b709-4b3d-b9a2-951516e52360

Military items	USA	China
Military personnel	1281900	2693000
combat tank	6287	13050
naval assets	415	714
aircraft	13398	3187
oil reserves	36,520,000,000 barrels	25,620,000,000
Daily Express , 9-7-2020; www.express.co.uk/news/world/1332183/world-war-3-china-news-us-navy-South-China-Sea-aircraft-carriers

● FoxNews, 1-28-2021: China testing Biden with incursions against Taiwan, India: 'This is a very dangerous time; they're not afraid of Biden,' expert tells 'Your World'

● Financial Times, 1-23-2021: US warns Beijing over incursion into Taiwanese air defence zone; Biden administration signals it will maintain tougher stance on China ft.com/content/f9742809-de59-40dc-b062-a221ffe01b41

● Nikkei (Japan), 1-28-2021: it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China. asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-tests-Biden-on-Taiwan-with-eye-on-another-island

● New York Times, 6-26-2020: China’s military is widely thought to remain far behind American armed forces, but it has caught up in some areas, including the expansion of its naval power and the deployment of anti-ship and antiaircraft missiles...China now posed “a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific ...China’s military remains untested. ...

● Military Times, 9-1-2020: What war with China could look like - https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/09/01/what-war-with-china-could-look-like/

● Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Over the last two decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has made advances that seriously eroded U.S. military power in the western Pacific, especially around Taiwan...the U.S. military now faces the prospect of losing a fight with China in defense of Taiwan. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong

● National Interest, 6-27-2020: Global Times report cites an abstract of China’s 2020 research report on the U.S. military presence in Asia, stating that the U.S. operates 60 percent of its Navy fleet in Asia, 55 percent of its Army and two-thirds of its Marine Corps. “With 85,000 forward-deployed soldiers and a large amount of high-tech and new weaponry, the U.S. military has maintained its absolute supremacy in the Asia-Pacific over the years,” https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-military-aircraft-have-again-entered-taiwan%E2%80%99s-air-space-again-163674

●

● Express UK, 9-13-2020: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1333776/south-china-sea-news-world-war-3-warning-US-Beijing-conflict-Spratly-Islands-latest-update

South China Sea threat: Beijing warned to fear US influence as WW3 alarm bells ring

CHINA has been warned they should fear US influence in the South China Sea as the risk of "all-out conflict" has increased.

● SCMP, 9-13-2020: military expert at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, also agreed that the risks of war at the Taiwan Strait remained manageable, but this was only because Beijing had not achieved military superiority over the US. “If we fight a war with the US, we will make sure that we have absolute superiority and up to now we have not done so “Both China and the US don’t want to fight a war – if a nuclear war is triggered, no one can guarantee a win.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3101363/us-presidential-election-china-trump-and-red-lines-taiwan

● Forbes, 6-7-2020: There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies. If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle. American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers ( brief )

● L.A. Times, 6-9-2020: The country’s focus on communications warfare, autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles could thwart a lumbering giant like the U.S. Navy. War gamers at the Rand Corp. warned last year that the U.S. had “its ass handed to it” in battle simulations. “The Chinese military has progressed very quickly — and it might be a decade or two away, but it is certainly on the road to catching up with the U.S.” (brief)

● News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade.

● Asia Times, 9-7-2020: USAF eyes B-52s dropping sea mines to defend Taiwan - According to a US Air Force wing commander, that’s what a US intervention might involve, should China decide to invade Taiwan.

● Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan. Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).

● New York Times 5-24-2020: China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

● Voice of America, 6-4-2020: US navy will win a war with Chinese navy at this moment... ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

● Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.

● The Australian, 5-18-2020, The Times (UK): In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon.

● CNN, 9-3-2020: a forcible takeover of Taiwan could be a bad bet for Xi either way -- US help or not

● CBS news (USA), 11-14-2018: U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
the National Defense Strategy Commission: "It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat." ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)

● France24, 8-10-2020: Critics have accused US President Donald Trump of ramping up criticism of China as a way to divert from growing public anger over his administration’s coronavirus response, especially as he fights for re-election ... Trump administration was still paying heed to China’s red line—that no US official handling national security visit Taiwan.

● RealClearDefense 9-15-20 Regrettably, the United States isn’t doing enough to deter Xi from attacking Taiwan. A first step in correcting this is updating or replacing the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)... the U.S. should help Taiwan help itself by providing tools tailored to defending the island https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/09/15/defending_taiwan_and_deterring_china_577452.html

Alex Azar’s trip , the highest-ranking visit by a U.S. official to Taiwan in decades
◆ MirageNews (Australia), 8-11-2020: (where is that red line for the U.S. in terms of us going in and defending Taiwan?)	Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises.
◆ The Week , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020	FT : she isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?"
◆ Washington Post, 8-6-2020	Alex Azar’s trip to Taiwan is about refusing to appease China. a fraught strategy and the stakes are high
◆ Financial Times, 8-9-2020 (UK)	US health secretary’s Taiwan trip is sign of strategic shift , new risks it creates for Taipei as it becomes a crucial battleground in the escalating clash between the world’s two biggest economies
◆ Forbes, 8-9-2020	U.S. Health Chief Arrives In Taiwan At Nadir In Washington-Beijing Ties
◆ AFP , 8-8-2020 (France)	a high-level visit to the island shows it is still treading carefully on an especially explosive issue... they (US) are trying to come as close as possible to China's red line but don't want to cross it."
◆ CGTN, 8-9-2020 (China)	A dangerous move that benefits no one ! another step to provoke China while the Sino-U.S. relations deteriorate... the move reveals the Trump administration's multiple calculations... making the Taiwan Straits a new battlefield as U.S.-China tensions soar... Making China the scapegoat to divert attention from the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic has been one of the crucial strategies to save Trump. In this case, there seems nothing better than playing the Taiwan card.
◆ New York Times, 8-9-2020	a test of China’s tolerance of the United States’ support for Taiwan at the most volatile time in the relationship between Beijing and Washington in decades.
◆ ABC News, 8-8-2020	The trip is a geopolitical chess move in the Trump administration's contentious relationship with China
◆ Bloomberg, 8-9-2020	It is about sending a message to Beijing amid rapidly deteriorating bilateral relations and the routine military nuisance that Beijing has been causing Taiwan throughout 2020.” a trip that stands to further worsen spiraling relations between the U.S. and China.
◆ Financial Times, 8-9-2020 (UK)	Visit highlights island’s growing importance in clash between Washington and Beijing。
◆ New York Post, 8-9-2020, 8-7-2020	... a trip that’s spurred outrage from China. By dispatching Azar, President Trump is delivering a clear message of resistance to China’s increasingly egregious behavior.
◆ Bloomberg 8-6-2020	"an outcome that Beijing has threatened could lead to war" , So far China’s response to the trip has been fairly subdued, suggesting that leaders in Beijing may be keeping their options open ahead of the election
◆ SCMP (HK), 8-10-2020	“The US has consistently treated Taiwan as a chess piece to contain China, and the DPP is going along with it,” They [the DPP] are acting as a toy in the US’ anti-China strategy, and must pay an increasingly high price for it.
◆ CNN, 8-11-2020	Azar's presence in Taipei is "a serious breach" of US commitments on Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry said
◆ TVBS, 8-10-2020	Azar in his speech addressed president Tsai as "president Xi". KMT advises the govt. to protest on this "mistake".

◆ Chinese authorities slammed the US for sending a military transport aircraft over the island of Taiwan and urged the US side to abide by the three joint communiqués between China and the US. China reacted angrily about Taiwan (DPP) colluded with foreign forces to violate China's sovereignty and security, actively sabotaged peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and brought calamity to safety and the well-being of people on the island.

pic.: At 6-9-2020, a US Navy (C-40A) is flying over West coast line of Taiwan before heading to Dongsha Island in South China Sea (red-line on pic., green land on left side is China mainland).

although many media reported the flight was re-routed for weather and military exercise nearby, but:
　

◆ New Zealand Herald, 6-15-2020: the US Navy flight was an overt signal of support for Taiwan is likely, especially given China's recent major military exercises close to its borders.

◆ The Drive, 6-9-2020: ( The US action ) "was almost sure to draw some form of rebuke from authorities in Beijing"

◆ NHK Japan, 6-12-2020: Some analysts in Taiwan say the administration of US President Donald Trump conducted the military flight to demonstrate its policy of working with Taiwan.

◆ News Australia, 6-14-2020: Chn. : can also be seen as a de facto joint military drill ...
　

PS: US News & World Report 6-15-2020: provocative move is used to deter China ... it could cause an escalation with China

◆ FocusTaiwan 6-9-2020: the C-40A's flight course as "rare" because the U.S. military usually operates only in international waters or airspace around Taiwan. "the Clipper's route took it through actual Taiwanese airspace, where U.S. military aircraft generally don't venture"

◆ China Times, 6-10-2020: The purpose of the US is riling China, testing the waters and arm Wrestling. The tacit understanding (Chinese military never respond US particular mission in public ocean) between Chn. and US was broken since then.
◆ Express (UK), 6-12-2020: Chn. lashes out at 'provocation' after US plane enters Taiwan airspace which contravens international law.

◆ https://thehill.com/policy/defense/502229-china-condemns-us-military-fo-provocative-flight-over-taiwan

◆ https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191355.shtml

◆ https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4623423

◆ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200612_01/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33964/taiwanese-fighters-drive-off-chinese-jets-after-navy-transport-plane-flies-over-the-island

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202006090013

●

Will US send troops to defend Taiwan ?

● VOA, 2021-8-28 : Survey: Most Americans Support Defending Taiwan if China Invades Radio Free Asia, 2021-8-28: More than 50 percent of the American public would support U.S. military intervention to defend Taiwan against invasion by China. voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/survey-most-americans-support-defending-taiwan-if-china-invades

● Bloomberg, 2021-4-1: The U.S. also makes no iron-clad guarantees it will come to Taiwan’s defense if China makes good on threats to invade, only agreeing to help the separately ruled economy maintain its capacity for self defense

● Politico, 3-15-2021:Trump indicated (in 2019) America might not come to Taipei’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion，"If they invade, there isn’t a f---ing thing we can do about it."

●

If China invades Taiwan ... responses from US president Trump, state secretary Pompeo
◆ FoxNews, Newsweek, 9-22-2020	In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Trump too talked tough on the flashpoint, but declined to specify how he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait "They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems." https://www.newsweek.com/china-what-happens-war-breaks-out-taiwan-1533385
◆ FoxNews, 8-23-2020, Q: 1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors." 2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?	Trump : 1) They're coming to this country. 2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,” “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this" "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it" It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing
◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020	Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/ Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources
◆ FoxNews, 6-1-2020 　 QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?	SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/
◆ washington examiner, 10-7-2020 in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene	SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan 　 ◆ Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020: Pompeo: U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china

● VOA, 8-21-2020: The region’s military balance moves in China's favor, strategic ambiguity is increasingly unsustainable... Although the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity. Joseph Biden: "There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan" ...it would depend on the circumstances.

●

● Forbes, 9-22-2020: The United States Should Put ‘Tripwire’ Ground Forces In Taiwan: Expert

American naval forces were No longer enough to credibly deter the PLA from attempting a cross-strait operation,” The PLA Rocket Force’s 1,300 medium-range missiles and the PLA Navy’s modern submarines have turn the Taiwan Strait into a no-go zone for large U.S. Navy formations. The Air Force’s mega-base in Okinawa—the service’s main hub for operations around Taiwan—is a prime target for Chinese rockets. the United States should get serious about defending Taiwan by putting boots on the ground, Mills wrote. “Without U.S. forces in Taiwan, it is increasingly likely that China will attempt to integrate Taiwan into its republic by force. www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/22/the-united-states-should-put-ground-forces-in-taiwan-expert/#6e6bcae24622

● Taiwan News, 8-11-2020: Former president of Taiwan says US will not engage in cross-strait conflict

● Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning

● Forbes, 9-22-2020: The U.S. Army Should Plan To Send Four Divisions To Taiwan: Expert / David Axe
To prevent PLA ground forces from remaining on Taiwan in a ‘frozen conflict’, the U.S. Army should be prepared to deploy tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of heavy vehicles to the island country and “drive the enemy into the sea,”, this requires the Navy and Air Force to fight through China’s ... naval and air forces to gain secure access to Taiwan’s ports and airfields that would allow the deployment of the Army,”. That’s easier said than done, of course.

The arriving American troops would have one job—help Taiwanese troops contain, isolate then reduce Chinese beachheads. U.S. divisions “will provide the core for a decisive counterattack.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/22/the-us-army-should-plan-to-send-four-divisions-to-taiwan-expert/#2cfa91831635

● The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.

●

● Express (UK) 6-30-2020:China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning

●
● Taiwan News, 8-11-2020: Former president of Taiwan says US will not engage in cross-strait conflict

Ma Ying-jeou warns China would wage quick war on Taiwan, says no hope of US military assistance

●

● Russia's Sputnik 6-30-2020: Wishful Thinking’: US May Be Unwilling to Fight China Over Taiwan, Strategists Fear , ‘The Situation is a lot Grimmer’ there’s reason to worry that Trump will lose interest in Taiwan. He’d trade away Taiwan in a heartbeat if he thought it would get him his trade deal with China. sputniknews.com/asia/202006301079760590-wishful-thinking-us-may-be-unwilling-to-fight-china-over-taiwan-strategists-fear/

●

● South China Morning Post, 6-30-2020: Taiwan warned against ‘wishful thinking’ that US will come to rescue if China attacks

●

● New York Times, 7-2-2020: Doubts have emerged about President Trump’s personal commitment to Taiwan, especially as he tries to hold together a trade deal with China. ... KMT law maker : “If Taiwan fights against the Chinese Communist Party, the United States won’t come to rescue us,” ... As always, Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support. The United States is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself。

●

● Chicago Global Affairs Council

"Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?"

	2015	2018	2019
China invades Taiwan	28%	35	38
N. Korea invade S. Korea	47%	64	58
China initiates a military conflict w Japan over disputed islands	33%	41	43
Russia invades a NATO ally (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc)	45%	54	54
https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/report_ccs19_rejecting-retreat_20190909.pdf

●

● CSIS , 2020: https://chinasurvey.csis.org/analysis/

https://chinasurvey.csis.org/analysis/partners-believe-us-prepared-to-take-significant-risk-defend-against-china/

There is strong consensus among thought leaders in Asia and Europe that the United States is prepared to take risk to defend Japan (mean score of 6.89); Taiwan (6.42); South Korea (6.39); and Australia (6.16) against threats from China, but there is less consensus on defending an unnamed ally or partner in the South China Sea (5.43), though Northeast Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are generally more confident (6.14).

This potentially sends a powerful message to China that U.S. allies and partners are confident that the United States will take risk to defend them despite Beijing’s efforts to chip away at that confidence.

Despite China’s growing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, confidence in the U.S. willingness to take risk to defend Taiwan is high, second only to Japan and higher than confidence for defending U.S. treaty allies South Korea and Australia.

●

● National Interest 7-6-2020: China and Taiwan Could Be Headed Towards a Showdown... Will it be easy to defend Taiwan? No. ... attempt great feats “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”

● Economist 5-28-2020: a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked...... America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. America's allies should echo that, loudly. https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify

● chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018, Missouri State University professor D. Hickey's comment : the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

● The Liberty Times, (自由時報) ，1-24-2020: Agreements or treaties like <Taiwan Relations Act> (『台灣關係法』) have not clearly stated the U.S. has obligation or duty to send troops to defend Taiwan.

●

● Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020 https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/ : Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.

●

● The Diplomat 6-8-2020: Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.

●

● Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, ref. to Forbes : the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war.

●

● Maybe Taiwan won't fear military threat from China if the US definitely would come to the rescue once the reunification war breaks out. ( Financial Times 5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic...)

●

● Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020: After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.

●

● ABC Radio National, Australia, 27 February 2020 : In the US, both sides of politics have reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the Taiwanese military is well armed and prepared for any possible Chinese incursion. How the wider international community would respond to cross-strait conflict remains unclear.

●

● United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.

● National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan... ◦

● China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: China and the US flexed their muscles frequently near Taiwan territory, in this April, US fighters approached Taiwan Strait surrounding airspace 13 times, particularly B-1B reached there 3 times. Next TV news 5-8-2020: Chinese air force and fleets conducted a series of provocative, aggressive operations from Jan. 23 till April 22, once traversed Taiwanese 'territory' (Taiwan Strait median line).

● The China Times, opinion, 4-21-2018: survey/poll shows only 18% American are on the side of defending Taiwan by US military (僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台).

● New York Times, 5-24-2020 : China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan. Taiwan News 6-1-2020: Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison explained to VOA that the U.S. would then be forced to join the battle once Beijing's troops cross the Taiwan Strait, leading to catastrophic global warfare.

● New York Post, 5-26-2020: (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.

●

● The Hill 6-16-2020: That question was put directly by Chinese military officials to Assistant Defense Secretary Joseph Nye in 1995, between episodes of Chinese missile firings toward Taiwan: What would the U.S. do if China attacked Taiwan? Nye’s response: “We don’t know and you don’t know; it would depend on the circumstances.” https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan

● Bloomberg 6-24-2020: Even absent a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, the United States can telegraph that commitment by making the choices required to ensure it can defend Taiwan successfully.

●

● National Interest Organization, 3-5-2019 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

In the 2017 TNSS (The Taiwan National Security Survey) survey, most (43.4 percent) thought America will not support Taiwan, while 40.5 percent believed America will commit troops to a conflict. In 2019, however, the number believing Washington will provide troops jumped to 48.5 percent, while the number who think it will not fell to 35.3 percent. If an attack is unprovoked, the percentage of Taiwanese who believe the United States will intervene soars to 60 percent.

arms deal

● Defense News, 2021-8-30: Taiwan’s government approved a $16.89 billion defense budget for the next fiscal year, which runs from Jan. 1 to December 31, 2022. The figure is a 4 percent increase from the previous fiscal year and represents about 2.1 percent of the country’s expected gross domestic product for 2022. defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/08/30/taiwans-government-reportedly-makes-last-minute-request-for-seahawk-helos/

● Reuters, 2021-8-26: Taiwan eyes jet fighter buy amid modest hike in 2022 defence spending

● Harvard Political Review 2021-4-11, Against Arms Sales to Taiwan : It is simply to prevent current stressors from escalating into armed conflict. In the face of a properly executed Chinese attack, Taiwan will certainly be helpless alone, and it seems American forces may face a tougher fight than anticipated. harvardpolitics.com/against-arms-taiwan/

● Reuters, 2021-3-31:Taiwan's Air Force told Reuters it had decided to buy the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles, with deliveries to start in 2025 and deployment the following year. ( PS:寰宇全視界: The missile can only fights Chinese old DF missiles 舊式東風導彈 )

● NBC, 2021-3-27: A war over Taiwan remains a worst-case scenario that officials say is not imminent. China's growing firepower casts doubt on whether U.S. could defend Taiwan; Taiwan needs lower-tech weapons (mines, drones and mobile anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles) to fend off a potential Chinese invasion, and that big-ticket items like fighter jets and Patriot missiles (they've invested a lot of money in) are going to die in the first few hours of the war

● Taipei Times , 3-1-2021: US should sell Taiwan a much larger number of AIM-120 self-guided air-to-air missiles (AAM), more ATACMS ballistic missiles, PATRIOT missile-defense missiles, and soldier-launched JAVELIN anti-armor missiles. The US should also sell more critical spare parts to ensure the operation of US-built F-16 combat fighters, combat ships, and Army tanks. There should also be consideration for easing the financial burden on Taiwan for building this stockpile by considering new “Lend-Lease” deferred payment arrangements... long-range AIM-260 AAM now under development, 500km range Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) and new high-power laser defense weapons. 。taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/03/01/2003753019

● L.A. Times 5-20-2020 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-20/taiwan-president-calls-for-stability-in-china-relations), The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020 ( references )

          The U.S. is the island’s main source of military support against China’s military threats. Since 2008, the United States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter aircraft, tanks, and missiles.
        The Diplomat said that while the U.S. remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be important partners as well. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has exported arms from countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States. https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiwan-looking-to-diversify-its-defense-partnerships/
        However, China called the Taiwan issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and military contacts between Taiwan and any country.   Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship.

● Republic World, 5-25-2020: China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.

● Washington Post, 5-30-2020 The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.

● Global Times (China), 9-21-2020: The Taiwan Relations Act that was enacted in 1979 also stipulates that the US shall provide Taiwan with arms that are only defensive in character.

However, the air-to-ground missile included in the proposed packages of arms sales to Taiwan falls into the category of offensive weapons.

US weapons, good enough for Taiwan !? 'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020:Taiwan should devote its limited defense budget to acquiring huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines ; Forbes, 9-29-2020: Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated. Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems、long-range surveillance armed drones...

However, here are some problems:

◆ too big !?

Many US weapons Taiwan bought in recent years are “big ticket”, "symbolic", such as M1 tank、 heavy vehicles、F16V jet ; SCMP (Hong Kong ,10-15-2020) and Japan Times (7-9-2019): those weapons Taiwan requested "will not alter the basic military balance in the region” ; A more important issue is : Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ... Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out. Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries still consist predominantly of small numbers of advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage; Bloomberg 10-27-2020 has same view.
Therefore, Taiwan should buy "smaller-size", mobile, lethal, hard-to-target and numerous (for strategic dispersion) practical weapons with maneuverability capabilities (missiles, HIMARS, etc) better for its asymmetrical capabilities. But Taiwan went the other route. DW (Germany), 6-6-2019 reported: Taiwan confirms request for US tanks, Taiwan may be seeking to buy 66 more F-16 fighter jets 。 Taiwan expert in Diplomat,11-3-2020 thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/ says the high visibility of conventional systems positively impacts Taiwanese morale and improves public confidence in the military, and those weapons are effective during peacetime. The problem is: does Taiwan have enough budget to buy those ?

◆ too late !?

Newly bought US weapons take at least one year maybe 4~5 years ? to arrive in Taiwan. Independent (UK, 10-28-2020), SCMP( Hong Kong, 10-27-2020) : Taiwan says newly purchased US arms will help it destroy half of any invading Chinese force by 2025. However, Defense News (10-27-2020): “I think if there’s anything to be concerned about its how fast we can get these systems to the Taiwan. If this is over the next 5-7 years, ... we shouldn’t be coming out of our seats celebrating. And that’s a political question ...".
Voice of America,10-15-2020: Experts Say Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts to Counter China. Reuters (Oct. 2020) says Taiwan is developing and testing new missiles.

China's mouth-piece Global Times, 10-27-2020: the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real "porcupine" ( Independent UK, 10-8-2020: US: Taiwan needed to "turn themselves into a porcupine" militarily, "Lions generally don't like to eat porcupines.")

◆ too old !?
Forbes, 10-26-2020: Taipei’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles complicates Beijing’s invasion-planning.
However, Defense News, 10-26-2020: The Harpoon missile (just purchased) is an older technology and travels at sub-sonic speeds, which means it may be more vulnerable to advanced air defenses. ... Business Insider, 10-28-2020: Harpoon anti-ship missiles could frustrate an amphibious assault a Chinese military.. expert in Hong Kong says the missiles "will boost Taiwan's attack ability a little bit," but they "cannot survive a real war and can barely make any change to the balance of military power between Beijing and Taipei."; Global Times, 10-27-2020: The threat that these Harpoon missiles poses to the PLA is very limited, as they are high subsonic missiles designed in the 1980s, and the current self-defense and anti-missile facilities installed by the PLA on its vessels and land-based bases can shoot them down easily," The US has a more advanced anti-ship missile with stealth capability, but it won't sell it to Taiwan, so the latest announced sale is another expensive deal ...
If Biden is elected, things may even worsen, CNN 10-29-2020 says that Biden could offer minor concessions to Beijing, like providing Taiwan with less potent weapons.

◆ Can Taiwan defeat China by US weapons ?

Taiwan's defense may be not too bad, but there’s little doubt that China would win a war with Taiwan, even if such a conflict would be costly on all sides, according to many analysts in media such as Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020, Bloomberg, 10-8-2020. China even could destroy Taiwan easily by missiles or fatal weapons if it really wanted. Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military.

Many pro-independence" Taiwanese actually is short of "will-power", if they all have "soul of the military" as Japanese army had in WWII , the Tokubetsu Kogekitai ( とくべつこうげきたい ,「神風敢死隊」, suicide planes) may destroy Chinese only two aircraft-carriers to end the war. Now most Taiwanese want peace (NewsWeek, 10-28-2020) ― both sides of Taiwan Strait are Chinese, Chinese blood in the veins, NBC 10-24-2020: Economically, Taiwan is dependent on Beijing. But for its security and for international political support, it relies on Washington. Most Taiwanese hope to find some way a peaceful resolution for the issue. Washington Post, 1-2-2017 noted " 83 percent Taiwanese chose bread (China's economy) over romance ("independence") . 10-29-2020

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa 10-11

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html

www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204800.shtml

https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-says-newly-purchased-us-111753710.html

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/26/us-state-department-to-allow-sale-of-hundreds-of-anti-ship-missiles-to-taiwan-amid-diplomatic-row/

https://www.businessinsider.com/sale-of-missiles-to-taiwan-could-frustrate-a-chinese-invasion-2020-10

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/experts-say-taiwan-needs-more-homegrown-military-efforts-counter-china

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/#439bad0147f6

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-20201008-grd2fews3ffg7gdc4zyhagafjq-story.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/tiny-taiwan-caught-middle-u-s-china-battle-supremacy-n1244521

https://www.newsweek.com/china-war-taiwan-peace-poll-1542735

● United Daily (聯合報) editorial／ 2020-06-06

The biggest problem is shortage of budget 。
In addition to Navy, Army's tank and artillery (戰車,火砲)，Air force's Mirage jet and C-130，all need to be replaced or enhancing performance， which is far more than the budget can afford。

three presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) kept squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense.

So called asymmetrical capabilities are just skin-deep or phony phrase ! (表面功夫)。

●　The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees. 　
　　Taiwan is often criticised for purchasing inappropriate capabilities, but these sales serve a deterrent function　― 　continues to extract political commitments from the US.

●

● FoxNews, 6-1-2020 https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.

PS: What's the commitment ?

◆ U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982) "817公報"

the United States of America recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.

The Chinese Government reiterates that the question of Taiwan is China’s internal affair. The Message to Compatriots in Taiwan issued by China on January 1, 1979 promulgated a fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Nine-Point Proposal put forward by China on September 30, 1981 represented a further major effort under this fundamental policy to strive for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question.

the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution.

◆ Arms sales to Taiwan NSC Declassification Review (EO 13526) "白宮備忘錄" 1982

...

The US willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences. It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of US foreign policy.

It is essential that the quantity and quality of the arms provided Taiwan be conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC. (brief)

● New York times, 11-4-2017: “(Taiwan) needs to resist a Chinese military attack for two weeks and wait for help from the United States or the international community,” echoing a strategy that has been at the core of Taiwan’s defense doctrine for decades......Taiwan’s armed forces, by contrast (Chn), have fallen way behind, struggling to recruit enough soldiers and sailors — and to equip those they have. A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits the United States to defend the island’s sovereignty, providing “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary” ... US latest arms sales " short of the major systems that could give Taiwan a real edge." (Singapore's The Straits Times :

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-once-mighty-military-now-overshadowed-by-chinas Taiwan's once-mighty military now overshadowed by China's 11-6-2017; http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/xi-tells-trump-that-taiwan-is-the-most-important-issue-in-sino-us-ties Taiwan is the most important issue in Sino-US ties, Xi tells Trump 11-9-2017 )

● Washington Post, 1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
Can China really take over Taiwan?

Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.” ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China. A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

○

Taiwanese youngsters are willing to go to war with China ??

○

　
　
　

　

　
SCMP, 2021-9-1:
Taiwan will launch a new defence agency next year to boost the combat readiness of its much criticised military reserve force amid a growing threat from Beijing     scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3147189/taiwan-plans-new-defence-agency-better-prepare-military

Diplomat, 10-3-2020: the United States should convince Taiwan to clarify its own commitment to military readiness, noting that mandatory military service in Taiwan
is seen by many young conscripts as a “waste of time.”... Taiwan lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years. Such a policy, however,
could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
thediplomat.com/2020/10/taiwan-debates-military-preparedness-measures-as-chinese-threats-escalate/

　
L.A. Times,10-6-2020: To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service ... Better pay, housing and college scholarships offered by the armed services
haven’t been enough to lure Taiwan’s youth ... Taiwan's active-duty military has shrunk to 165,000 from 275,000 three years ago.
Financial Times,10-6-2020 and Guardian 6-27-2020 both estimated Beijing would need up to one million soldiers to invade Taiwan.

But till now 10-8-2020, Taiwan eventually made a small step ― 260 thousands Taiwanese will be called up for active duty 14 days per year starting from 2022.
Taiwan should shift from volunteer military service to mandatory military service with same training days as Singapore's or Korea's in order to deal with huge PLA troops.
Besides, the good female youngsters should be considered to join the army.
　
　
　

　

　

　

　
★ Diplomat, 12-3-2020, "The latest Taiwan National Security Survey contains both good and bad news for cross-strait stability."
How Taiwan’s citizenry plan to respond to a war is not reassuring?   Duke U. TNSS survey:

go about their daily lives and/or do nothing
　 flee to another country join the military support the
war effort follow government orders
　 they don’t know 　

21％ 11％ 11％ 11％ 10％ 24％ percentage

　　
32 %
　

　

其他調查發現 ● 53.2％ expect the U.S. to protect Taiwan，35％won't。 over 60％ believe the US would intervene in the event of an unprovoked attack
●   if it triggers a Chinese attack, 51% oppose a war over independence, 37 ％ support armed conflict .
● roughly 60 ％ say Taiwan cannot successfully defend itself, 75.7 ％ agree that the length of 4-months compulsory military training is too short.
●   51.3 ％ of Taiwanese still support diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions. Only 38.4 ％ favor an increase in military capabilities
　

by Dennis V. Hickey , a foreign policy analyst and professor emeritus at Missouri State University. website: https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/more-and-more-taiwanese-favor-independence-and-think-the-us-would-help-fight-for-it/

　

　

　

China-US-Focus 5-4-2018
( https://www.chinausfocus.com/society-culture/taiwan-public-opinion-and-national-security-implications-for-washington-and-taipei)
　

　
★ Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) found that almost 68% of Taiwan’s people were willing to go to war with China
if it seeks to force reunification. The poll’s findings made headlines in Taiwan’s media outlets.
However, some other scientific polls available are more reliable.
　
　
　
★ China-US-Focus, 5-4-2018 : TNSS （The Taiwan National Security Survey ）, a scientific poll, is conducted by the prestigious Election Study Center of
Taiwan's National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University:
　

　 wait and see
　 leave the country join the army to fight against the invasion
　 support the government’s decision,
　 resist
　 hide away
　 choose to surrender
　 commit suicide respondents
answer

　 36.9％ 16％ 4.9％ 6.2％ 4.1％ 2.2％ 1.8％ 0.1％ %

　　　
15.2%
　　　

PS: a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender”。
　
　
　
★ National Interest Organization, 3-5-2019
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

　
Both polls and earlier surveys found that almost 45 percent Taiwanese plan to “leave the country,” “unhappily accept the situation,” “hide”
or “choose to surrender” if reunification war between China and Taiwan break out. Besides, each poll shows that 23 percent
“don’t know” how they might respond, a majority believes most Taiwanese will resist an invasion by PLA.
But the polls also showed 70 % think Taiwanese military cannot win a war ― in any conflict, “mainland forces will prevail.”。
　
　

　

★ 　5-8-2019: New Party（新黨） https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox4EVm45Kvc ，
Poll shows about 20% Taiwanese would like to join the war, but the percentage drops to less than 10% after telling them war may kill them and families 。

　

　
★ VOA news, 9-21-2020: The increasing number of air force incursions from China is starting to fray nerves among ordinary Taiwanese, A Yahoo poll, as of early September,
had found that 64% of Taiwanese worry about a conflict, but a lot of people’s fears are muted by perceptions that China is just sending a political signal,
a big proportion of Taiwanese who think United States would defend Taiwan ...
　
★ Global Times, 9-28-2020: survey released by Taiwan magazine Global Views Monthly on Friday showed that if a war broke out, 54.2 percent of the respondents wished for peaceful
talks with the mainland, 22.3 percent expected help from the US, and16.5 percent said the island should fight. "The result is in line with the current situation in Taiwan," said Zhang Wensheng,
a deputy dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, China.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202381.shtml
　

　

　

pic.: Zola Zu's article about the world war "I want you !" was printed in the China Times, leading news at that time

　

        ★ Taiwanese democracy ... click ! top rankings !!
　

　

　

Taiwan short of soldiers and will to fight a strong Chinese military 'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

聯合報, 10-22-2020

嚴德發：若總統下動員令第一時間作戰主力45萬人

國軍後備改革，有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示，若總統動員令一下，約26萬名後備軍人就要報到，加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員，約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力

https://udn.com/news
/story/10930/4954777

募兵

徵兵

◆ Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands + reservists 260 thousands (call-up for active-duty training 14 days per year ) ― enough ?

according to Taiwanese defense minister's saying at end of 2020, it's Taiwan president Tsai's intention not to mobilize reserve in larger scale, not to expand the length of conscription (now only four months), or not to draft women

￭ Express (UK), 2021-4-8: Taiwan ‘ill-prepared’ for war with China say experts – ‘Facing a gigantic military threat’ Taiwan’s Defence Minister, Mr Tsai added: "Our national security needs every young man to go to the armed forces, this is a national obligation.”Taiwan should learn from the example of South Korea, SIngapore and Israel where military service is compulsory for more than a year. express.co.uk/news/world/1419775/taiwan-army-china-ill-prepared-invasion-military-news-ont

一年
     ￭ Taipei Times, 2021-4-12: Easton: Because the threat of invasion is increasingly credible,... Taiwan could invest in an emergency stockpiling effort, make a tenfold increase in reserve force training days taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/04/12/2003755509
      ￭ Foreign Policy, 2021-4-5: the state of Taiwan’s own forces does not bode well. If Chinese forces actually land, ... This would require well-trained conscripts and a reserve force—both major problems for Taiwan right now . The government has adamantly refused to expand the length of conscription, which is only four months, or to draft women
      ￭ Diplomat, 3-20-2021: Taiwan’s government, however, has met entrenched opposition to these reforms from some senior commanders. Moreover, military effectiveness is limited by unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/
      ￭ DW, 2021-4-5: Taiwan's army 'ill-prepared' for potential Chinese attack / young men usually complete after their studies, was shortened to four months, but ...Taiwan should take a cue from South Korea, Singapore and Israel, where military service lasts considerably more than a year... All the more reason to train reservists regularly dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659

￭ Defense News , 3-1-2021: efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers ( ... they also against full conscription ) and a lack of time. the current administration seemingly “unwilling or unable” to compel the ministry to implement it, partly due politically sensitive moves, such as full conscription.

￭ Financial Times , 2-20-2021: The US has long pushed Taipei to strengthen deterrence against a Chinese attack by bolstering its reserve force and training it to wage urban and mountain warfare should China invade. Defence experts in Washington have complained of a lack of resolve in Taipei to address the issue. ft.com/content/51f8bfba-bd1f-4dff-af8d-1a5b477d1dc7

      ￭ Wall Street Journal, 2-5-2021: “a hard problem for the U.S.” would be much less hard if Taiwan could reliably outnumber any invading force...With 23.7 million inhabitants Taiwan should manage two million, i.e., twice the size of the entire People’s Liberation Army ground force wsj.com/articles/taiwan-could-defend-itself-more-effectively-11612563552
      ￭ Foreign Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems are another. This also means preparing the public for conflict... foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/
     ￭ Newsweek, 11-5-2020, News Australia, 11-7-2020: expert says Taiwan will need to bring back the draft in order to put up a fight. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/war-will-come-warns-beijing-after-taiwan-stocks-up-on-usmade-missiles/news-story/41a1d2b2e04e2f5e015c308b5dedd9b9

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770

￭ Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hongkong-taiwan-military/

But Taiwan goes the other way and declares it will cut off the number of 2021's new-entry volunteer service soldiers from 22,000 to 12,000, according to LTN 11-7-2020. Is it a signal from Taiwan to China while pro-Taiwan Trump losing US election ? Furthermore, Taiwan only plans to mobilize about 1/10 reservists, Newsweek (10-30-2020) doubts how many reservists may come once the war breakout, because in peace time, only 70% citizens came for 7 days-per-year call-up training. In contrast, China's 北戴河 meeting set up a goal to mobilize all the people for the war.

Western experts' advices: number of reservists	western analysts	advices
a million	Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020	Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists
a million	Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020	Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles
more than a million	ＵＳArmy University Press Military Review, Sept-Oct, 2020	Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity
2.3 million	Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020	2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group... a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training. Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA
2~3.8 million	New York times, 5-18-2017	The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists 。 Wikipedia, May 2020: reserves reportedly total 3,870,000. )
2.5 million	Asia Times, 12-28-2020

Financial Times (UK, 10-1-2020) reported the number of Chinese military personnel is about 2m, Taiwanese military is only 163,000. Guardian UK (6-27-2020) 、Financial Times UK (10-6-2020、10-19-2020) reported that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers or about 50% of total PLA strength ( Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to 616 millions )

Therefore, Taiwanese military should needs more than a million reservists with strict trainings. Taiwan's latest military reform plan ( mobilizing only about 1/10 reservists) starting from 2022 obviously is not good and early enough ! How does Taiwan know China will not strike before 2022 ? Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity... maybe between now and the communist party congress in 2022.”. If Taiwan knows for sure China will not make any move on Taiwan, why Taiwan's FM calls on Australia to help prevent China War ? because Taiwan was now "very concerned" ... "the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was much higher than before" according to Newsweek 12-1-2020 and ABC Australia 12-1-2020. Taiwan was criticized by NY Times in 2017 for relying on US military to fight China.

◆ Combat skills and will-power

Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’. But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan. Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky... Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers .

◆ SOL: Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible ―― Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

◆ Core problem
Taiwan's politicians like to win an election rather than win a war !!
Diplomat, 10-3-2020: Taiwan should lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years. Such a policy, however, could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Party (DPP). Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... NCCU professor says that without America's words, Taiwan still slept there doing nothing about reservist reform (寰宇全視界, 2020). Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. however, the United States may not be up to the task. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

FOCUS Taiwan's reservists

★ Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020

	◆ Politicians in our country are afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe our people are not willing to sacrifice... Full text: www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd
	◆ Taipei’s best bet at deterring an invasion is to bolster its reserves — a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training.
	◆ 2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...
	◆ Many reservists have been called up for just a few days every two years, a level of training Mr Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA

★ Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020 Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong? China Tests the Limits of Impunity

◆ The Pentagon should further assist Taiwan’s military in reforming its reserve and mobilization systems, which are critical to the institution’s long-term strength
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong

★ Hong Kong Free Press, 7-15-2020: Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men. The short length of time means it is difficult to learn much beyond basic training.

。https://hongkongfp.com/2020/07/15/security-law-taiwan-must-be-wary-it-could-be-the-next-target/
　

★ "寰宇全視界", 9-3-2020: Guest professor advocates restoring conscription, however, this will offend youngsters, and enlisting system is a rarely-seen consensus on Taiwan. Another professor notes the US suggests the number of Taiwanese active force needs at least 220 thousands, but at this moment only 180 thousands.

★   United Daily (Taiwan) ,10-03-2020 ／"I want independence, but not join-the-army"   https://udn.com/news/story/7338/4906441?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
        KMT (Nationalist party) advocates shifting from volunteer military service (hard to get young people) to mandatory military service, the ruling party DPP opposes it. The Ironic thing is: DPP wants independence which most likely leads to a war with China, but they don't want youngsters to join the army, which party likes to defend Taiwan better ?
        A KMT city-councilor (台北市女議員徐巧芯) advocates mandatory military service for both men and women, a former female lawmaker shouted at once "why don't you join the army"

★ Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists ( express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa) . Actually, probably much fewer Taiwanese soldiers will be there. Experts on Taiwan TV and Hong Kong Apple Daily said the reunification war is going to an end once PLA successfully landing, the Taiwanese chief said the total number of troops to fight PLA would be about 500,000, and according a survey, the biggest consensus between youngsters aged 20 ~29 and 18 ~ 19 ― not willing to be drafted or called up by Taiwanese military. This is the biggest crisis of Taiwan's national security (United Daily, Taiwan,10-06-2020).

★ Find out the number of Taiwan's armed forces personnel !

Taiwan military chief,
10-10-2020 Taiwan's TV 寰宇全視界,
10-10-2020 Financial Times,
10-1-2020 Voice of America ,
10-15-2020 Daily Express, 10-11-2020

currently 210,000, But in war time 500,000 in total currently 186,000 personnel 163,000 current level, an estimated 175,000 roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers

HOT !

Taiwan travel

food

democracy

Intro to Taiwan

Taiwan personality

Taiwan soft power

persecution

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 7-26-2020

pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-26-2020, 5-20-2020;

ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 11-14-2020, 5-20-2020

ps: Taiwan internet army , top rankings on Bing, Yahoo, etc

○

●

How to avoid a war in Taiwan Strait ?

Economist 5-29-2020: a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked...... America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. America's allies should echo that, loudly. (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong) Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior... NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.

News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade. Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Beijing were to interpret ... coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ ) The Hill (USA), 6-16-2020: China's Anti-Secession Law (ASL) that purportedly provided a “legal” basis for China to attack Taiwan, not only if it declared formal independence but also if it simply took too long to accept Chinese Communist rule. ( https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan )

other information

● The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence “Open Hearing on China’s Worldwide Military Expansion.”, 5-17-2018

(1) China's “infatuation with Taiwan” ?

a visceral nationalistic design ...“if Taiwan survives as a democracy [it] undermines the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”

(2) USA curb China ?

the US could soon be completely driven out of the Asia-Pacific region if Beijing is allowed to continue on its current course unopposed.

(3) Congressional hearing recommended

deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Asia, showing strong support for Taiwan, and exposing human rights abuses in China as immediate steps that could curb Beijing

○

★

● Taiwan Public Opinion and National Security, Dennis V. Hickey, Missouri State University / chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018
The U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

According to a more reliable poll available, The Taiwan National Security Survey (TNSS), which is conducted by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University in 2018 and 2019 , 36.9% plan to “wait and see, 16% percent plan to leave the country, 2.2 % will hide away and 1.8% will “choose to surrender. On the other hand, 6.2% will support the government’s decision, 4.9% will join the army to fight against the invasion, and 4.1% will resist the invasion. The good news is that only 0.1% will commit suicide. But the bad news is that a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender.”


pic.: survey 2018	pic.: survey in 2019

● imminent danger of Chinese invasion
　

USA Today 7-5-2020: The Chinese military recently held drills simulating the capture of Taiwanese territory. Communist officials and military officers have also threatened war with Taiwan in recent weeks.
　

pic: Apple Daily, 8-16-2020: BeiDaiHe meeting in China - one of 8 targets is to liberalize Taiwan

Reuters 5-22-2020: In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word “peaceful” in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades, an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral. Economist, 5-29-2020: China has stepped up war games around Taiwan and its nationalists have been braying online for an invasion.

Reuters 2-26-2020: Beijing ... attack the island as a way of relieving “internal pressure” ... Chinese public opinion believes people in Taiwan lack sympathy about China’s virus outbreak... Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned. Financial Times, 6-3-2020: if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force. Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent. Express (UK) 6-17-2020: World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies / Many viewed this ( China dispatch aircraft carriers for months-long war games in the South China Sea) as a prelude for broader, more aggressive actions against Taiwan. "If Taiwan secessionists insist on secession, military exercises can turn into action any time.” Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: A Chinese assault on the island is neither imminent nor inevitable.

● S.O.S. from Taiwan

(headline of Taiwan News)

◆ FoxNews, 5-26-2020: Taiwan Foreign minister warns Taiwan is next on Chinese agenda ( military actions ) and asks for international support.
TTV (Taiwan), 5-27-2020: Taiwan president: keep our eyes peeled for China's military actions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcHp-1j6Lg

◆ FoxNews, 6-1-2020 https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?

●●

●喵Annual Report to US Congress (2018), 8-17-2018
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

●
Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force

● ◆ Apple Daily 8-18-2018, headlines - China signals its readiness for unification by military force ― anytime.

● ◆ Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)

● ◆ United Daily, 8-18-2018 : China still seek unification by forces - Taiwan losing military edge. China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan. ps: Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.

A new method was applied to make these tables below:

●

● USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049.
Freebeacon 5-17-2018 : 2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan

○

● Washington Post, 1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
Can China really take over Taiwan?

○

● The US subcommittee hearing (4-17-2018) Rep. Ted Soho, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific: Seems likely Xi will force the issue (unification) in his life time. ( He is the only figure who can accomplish China's so called reunification. Unify Taiwan peacefully or otherwise he is the key part of this accomplishment, ......)

★○○

● The Heritage Foundation, The Index of U.S. Military Strength, 2017

China’s provocative behavior has expanded to include militarization of islands that it has built in highly disputed international waters in the South China Sea. China has also adopted aggressive naval tactics to intimidate such neighboring countries as Japan and the Philippines... the 2017 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force ... certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies ... / http://index.heritage.org/military/2017/assessments/

○

● Why China Can't Conquer Taiwan in a War , 11-17-2017 Zachary Keck http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-cant-conquer-taiwan-war-23254
A new study by Michael Beckley (Tufts University), published in the academic journal International Security argues that China’s neighbors could thwart Chinese military aggression through anti-access/area denial strategies with only minimal U.S. assistance. ... if China was far more successful than the United States had been in those conflicts, Beijing’s ability to execute an amphibious invasion is still far from certain. For instance, Beckley notes that only ten percent of Taiwan’s coastlines are suitable for an amphibious landing, which would allow Taipei to concentrate its forces on a few key areas. Chinese forces trying to land would likely be severely outnumbered...
○

● <The Chinese Invasion Threat> by Ian Eastonct., Oct. 3, 2017 :

China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said. ...China, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack.

○

● BBC , 12-3-2016 ○http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538
The pivotal role of the US was most clearly shown in 1996, when China conducted provocative missile tests to try and influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election. In response, US President Bill Clinton ordered the biggest display of US military power in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait, and a clear message to Beijing.

○

● 国家政策研究基金会 NPF National Policy Foundation in Taipei, Taiwan; 10-7-2017 CTN

The peace of Taiwan Strait before 2025 depends US military forces (台海安全仍繫於美軍是否介入...最大的不確定性仍是「美軍是否介入」，且在2025年之前，美軍相對中共仍有明顯優勢，與其說押注與否，不如說是因「美軍不可測」的因子無法排除。) / http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171007000342-260119

●

● China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said.

● Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) raised doubts over the time frame Easton asserted, saying that he did not think it is very precise.

●China, according to the book <The Chinese Invasion Threat>, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack.

pic.: Headline of Apple Daily, Oct. 6, 2017

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/05/2003679744; http://freebeacon.com/natiChina’s

●
●喵US Annual Report to Congress, 2017

Annual Report to US Congress (2017):
Military and Security Developments Involving
the People’s Republic of China 2017
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

　

https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
2016 Defense Budget Comparison (Adjusted for Inflation), Billion (USD)

China (Official Budget) $144.3

Russia (National Defense Budget) $46.2

Japan $47.2

India $37.0

Republic of Korea $32.8

Taiwan $10.5

Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China. Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force. (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school, National ChungCheng University)

○●

● International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS,UK, www.iiss.org), the military balance 2018 press statement - The annual assessment of global military capability and defence economics, 2-14-2018
●In 2017 Beijing showcased more advanced military systems ... are challenging the global predominance of the United States and its allies ... https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military-s-balance

China's modernisation of its armed forces is processing faster than many experts expected ... (ref to Apple Daily, opinion, 2-21-2018, "共軍非必勝國軍非必敗")

○●

● US Annual Report to Congress, 2016

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Annual Report to Congress:
Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2016%20China%20Military%20Power%20Report.pdf
　

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Naval Forces
	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	East and South Sea Fleets	Total
Aircraft Carriers	1	0	0
Destroyers	23	16	4
Frigates	52	40	22
Corvettes	23	14	1
Tank Landing Ships/ Amphibious Transport Dock	30	28	14
Medium Landing Ships	22	16	0
Diesel Attack Submarines	57	38	4
Nuclear Attack Submarines	5	2	0
Ballistic Missile Submarines	4	4	0
Coastal Patrol (Missile)	86	68	45

★

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Air Forces
	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	Within range of Taiwan	Total
Fighters	1,700	130	384
Bombers/Attack	400	200	0
Transport	475	150	19
Special Mission Aircraft	115	75	25

★

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Ground Forces

	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	Taiwan Strait Area	Total
Personnel (Active)	1.25 million	400,000	130,000
Group Armies/Army Corps	18	8	3
Infantry Divisions	12	4	0
Infantry Brigades	23	7	5
Mechanized Infantry Divisions	7	4	0
Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Divisions	2	2	0
Mechanized Infantry Brigades	25	8	3
Armor Divisions	1	0	0
Armor Brigades	17	7	4
Amphibious Armor Brigades	1	1	0
Army Aviation Brigades and Regiments	11	6	3
Artillery Brigades	22	9	5
Airborne Divisions	3	3	0
Marine Brigades	2	2	2
Tanks	7,000	2,800	1,100
Artillery Pieces	8,000	3,900	1,600

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● New York times, 10-19-2017: https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171019/china-xi-jinping-party-congress/dual/

○    Chinese president Xi delivered the line that won the loudest applause of his marathon speech: “We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
        Apple Daily, 10-20-2017, "ShaoKang Zhao Fax" column:
        Only 800+ words (out of 32000+ words in total) in Xi's speech at the 19th Communist party congress mentioned Taiwan, Taiwan issue seems not so important to Xi JinPing.
        China Times Group's CTI TV Sisys world news, 10-21-2017 : expert analyzed and interpreted Xi's speech and his implies ― it seems the timetable for unification is 2050.

●

Taiwanese military; 中文版 (Chinese version)
　

In world media's eyes, Taiwan is ~

◆ "human bomb" / Global Times, 9-8-2020: US sets Taiwan up as a 'human bomb' ( drive the little to poke the big )

◆ "food on the menu" / SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, Taiwan has long been on the menu."

◆ "a dog under control" / Eurasian Times 7-9-2020: The Tsai authority ... turns to Washington and is willing to be used. Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US.

The Scary War Game Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again and Again 8-17-2020 by Real Clear Investigations https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html
	1) Taiwan Defense Act ― questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon, which have received scant notice in the mainstream press. 2) The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over.
Chn. attacks Taiwan	◆(1) China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation” ◆(2) A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ; China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan. ◆(3) American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles. Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets. ◆(4) American submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships, but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy ◆(5) Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) ― would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops ◆(6) The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports. Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element. ◆(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.
US defends Taiwan	◆(1) The key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait. American long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600 miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours” ◆(2) A second component of a Taiwan defense would be space-based reconnaissance using artificial intelligence to locate enemy targets, which the LRASMs would hit; a third would be an American version of flooding the zone, with unmanned undersea drones that could fire torpedoes at Chinese landing craft. ◆(3) If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”
PS	1 ) an array of economic, diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and actions. 2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan.

China is building an invasion force
Type 075 Assault Carriers	can deploy attack helicopters, transport helicopters, and landing craft
Type 071 Landing Platform Docks	Carry large numbers of troops with supporting landing craft and helicopters
Carrier Battle Group	2 aircraft carriers supported by guided missile destroyers and frigates
Landing Ships Tanks (LST)	Landing craft and ships taken up from trade land reinforcements
Zubr Hovercraft	Can quickly carry troops and light vehicles from shops to shore
ZTD-05 Amphibious Tanks	Can swim from a ship to fight for control of a beach
The Queensland Times, 2021-2-6

Chinese military superiority / key:		contrast	Chinese military	Taiwanese military
100,000	active personnel	personnel	2m	163,000
50	combat-capable fixed-wing aircraft	aircraft	3,330	568
5	submarines	submarines	59	4
5	surface vessels above corvette size	vessels	107	26
200	main battle tanks	tanks	5,850	665
20	surface-to-surface missiles	missiles	603	12