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        intro. of Taiwan

 

  Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues
news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues

Advantages  including geography and climate.
Challenges (1)  the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan.
(2) 
Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  At a societal level, it is not clear what costs in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear
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News brief      The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China is on the fast track to wage war against Taiwan — and the US, experts say.  China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained.    19FortyFive, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon) China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces  The Hill, 2023-9-19: The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan and the rules-based international order   Military, 2023-9-13: We lost the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing our frailties, Xi will persist in pressuring Taiwan to dissolve from within, while employing military provocations to test America's martial resolve ... By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan  Washington Examiner, 2023-9-6:  Former President  Donald Trump  hinted that he would not order a U.S. military intervention against  China  were it to attack  Taiwan    Foreign Policy, 2023-9-5:  China could exploit its geographical proximity and advancing capabilities to win a regional war against Taiwan.  U.S. deterrence against China ( to convince Chinese President Xi Jinping that an attack would fail. ) is not working.  The U.S. military may merely need to raise China's perception that any conflict would be drawn out and exceedingly costly.    American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029.  Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux.     Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation.  Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island.  No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel Washington Examiner, 2023-8-22: China boasts record-high military recruitment, if military aid (Taiwan war) is needed, America's sagging recruitment numbers could be a problem.    full text

 

Taiwan presidency -  Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition)

BBC, 2023-8-29 Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.  Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways.
Economist, 2023-8-29 The opposition would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect.
Washington Post, 2023-8-28 Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.
Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25 analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics.
Reuters, 2023-8-28 Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of office.
AP, The Hill, 2023-8-28 Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency. He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote,“I will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”.  He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote

 

US Congress CRS Report, 2023-8-24  - Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481

persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack.  If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond
many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack.  observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.
 Civil military relations are strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, ... Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. It is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear ...

 

 

 

 

pic. : This websites group was ranked No.1 by keyword "introduction to Taiwan"
on Yandex of Russia (largest engine in Russia) at 2023-9-1, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-25, 2023-7-1, 2023-5-31, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-21,  2022-8-8, No.4  "introduction to Taiwan" at 2023-3-23, 2023-3-4;  No.1 at 2022-7-31, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-24, 2022-6-15, 2022-6-12, 2022-5-26, 2022-5-14, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-14, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-21; No.2 at
2022-4-9, 2022-2-25; among top ranks at 2022-12-12; No.3 "introduction of Taiwan" at 2022-12-17

 

 

pic. : No.1  "introduction to Taiwan" on Bing at  2023-9-1, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-25, 2023-7-1, 2023-5-31, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-3-4, 2023-2-1, 2023-1-22, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-17, 2022-6-24, 2022-5-14,  2022-4-30, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-21, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 01-01-2021, 12-6-2020, 11-29-2020, 11-11-2020, 10-25-2020, 8-5-2020, 8-2-2020, 7-6-2020, 6-21-2020, 6-11-2020, 6-5-2020, 5-21-2020, 5-12-2020, 5-8-2020, 4-20-2020, 4-10-2020, 3-20-2020, 2-24-2020,1-27-2020, 1-15-2020, 12-25-2019, 12-16-2019,11-6-2019, 10-6-2019, 9-17-2019, 8-3-2019,  7-29-2019, 6-27-2019,  4-29-2019; This websites group was ranked No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on Bing, 2022-10-4, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-22, 2021-12-4 No.3 at 2022-10-23, 2022-9-5;
No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Lycos, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1

 

pic. : This websites group was ranked No.1  "introduction to Taiwan"
on Swisscows of Switzerland at 2023-9-1, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-25, 2023-7-1; No.2 at 2023-8-22

 

 

 

2023  Michelin stars comparisons among Asian countries

 Michelin cities

total number of stars

Green Star

3 Star

2 Star

1 Star

Tokyo (Japan) 202 12 12 39 139
Kyoto (Japan) 104 6 6 19 73
Osaka (Japan) 97 3 3 10 81
Hong Kong 81 3 7 13 58
Singapore 65 1 3 6 55
 Shanghai (China) 51 1 2 9 39
Seoul (S. Korea) 38 3 2 8 25
Taipei (Taiwan) 29 2 2 5 20
 By highlighting eco-friendly pioneer restaurants with the MICHELIN Green Star, and spotlighting their virtuous initiatives, it stimulates awareness and actions both within the industry and by gourmets. 

 

  Daily Mail, 2023-8-18: China rehearses invasion of Taiwan with troops storming 'sea defences' in chilling wargames - while Beijing and Russia stage joint naval exercises in the Pacific the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly.  Bloomberg, 2023-8-16: China's PLA Daily published an editorial Wednesday saying Taiwan independence would mean the breakout of a war and that its pursuit would be a “road to ruin.”The comments are the clearest signal yet   The Hill, 2023-8-15: China and Russia are waging another Cold War; President Biden frequently expresses his fear about World War III   New York Times, news brief 2023-8-14: A Taiwanese presidential contender (Lai Ching-te) walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future.   The Hill, 2023-8-8: More ominously, the failure of the world's toughest-ever sanctions regime to bring Russia to heel could embolden China's expansionist designs against Taiwan, especially since similar sanctions against Beijing would have even less impact. Yet the U.S. is still not giving sufficient priority to deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan.    Washington Examiner, 2023-8-7:  the predictable outcome now seems all but certain: whether during Taiwan vice-president Lai's visit or in the weeks following, the two nations' recent detente will fade amid their intractable political differences   The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action  ◆  Washington Post, 2023-7-29: U.S. to provide up to $345 million in military aid to Taiwan;  a defense analyst in Taiwan was skeptical of the aid package and pointed to “serious delays in recent years in the delivery of numerous U.S. arms sales” to Taiwan.   Bloomberg, 2023-7-29: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines have said they don’t see an effort by China to seize Taiwan by force as imminent  Fox News, 2023-7-28 :  The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen  Bangkok Post, 2023-7-28: Beijing's military supremacy over Taiwan 'growing swiftly' - Japan's 2023 white paper - the gap between China and Taiwan appears to be growing year by year ... During the exercises (Last Aug.) , the Chinese military may have simulated operations for "invading Taiwan"   Financial Times, 2023-7-23: Washington is reducing some long-term deployments in the Indo-Pacific,...the US's decision to help Ukraine only with weapons and the wavering of some European countries about support for Kyiv do not bode well for Taiwan  BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date.     full text

 

 

 


:pic.: No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on ecosia of Germany, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-5-31, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-1, 2023-1-22, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-17, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-21, 2022-6-12, 2022-5-14, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2021-10-21, 2021-9-21,  2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 10-25-2020, 8-9-2020; No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on ecosia of Germany, at 2023-3-4, 2022-12-13, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-4, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-22     

 

 

resolve contrasts
Chinese military  Taiwan's military
The Guardian, 2023-8-7: the more dramatic parts of China's documentary on Taiwan invasion are pledges by PLA soldiers from various divisions to give up their lives in a potential attack on Taiwan.   ── “If the conditions were too difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we would use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our [landing] forces,” said  a frogman; “fighter jet would be the last missile rushing towards the enemy" said a pilot.   .theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/chinese-soldiers-pledge-to-sacrifice-their-lives-in-documentary-on-taiwan-invasion  Associated Press Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern, ... “A lot of young people who signed up for the four-year volunteer force decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early because they say they had come for the money—not to fight and not to die"wsj.com/articles/taiwan-china-ukraine-russia-hong-kong-military-war-517b87d?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo    Yaroslav Trofimov    Joyu Wang

 

#MeToo in Taiwan

New York Times, 2023-7-27 our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html 
Reuters, 2023-7-28 Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence.   Victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships.   reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/   Sarah Wu   

 

Washington Examiner, 2023-7-24:  China and Russia train together to sink US submarines the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side.   Daily Express, 2023-7-23: Japan says:  If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan...the government would need to first secure the support of the population before intervening. Washington Post, 2023-7-17:  Taiwan abandoning the One China framework aggravates the risk of war ResponsibleStatecraft.org, 2023-7-17: War with China over Taiwan? Don't expect US allies (Japan, Australia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) to join   Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the US will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will enable Australia to conduct operations such as anti-submarine warfare against China's subsurface fleet. Similarly, Japan will acquire counterstrike capabilities, which will include purchasing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These would allow Japan to target China's missile launchers and command-and-control sites that would be key to an invasion of Taiwan. But there is uncertainty over not just the kind of support allies would provide, but over whether they would provide any at all.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.    National Interest, 2023-7-16: extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation  ... it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan   National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen: If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.  CNN, 2023-7-14:  it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island.  ◆  Reuters, 2023-7-14:  US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan  in the coming years.  ◆   Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”◆  West Point, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war, and  highlights a fundamental component of warfare that applies to an attempted Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan—that the war will be won or lost by land forces on the ground.    Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge    Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.  While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield".   Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,...  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.  The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern.    full text

 

 NPR, 2023-7-3:  More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation.   CBS News, 2023-7-2: Several sources within the Pentagon tell 60 Minutes that if China invaded Taiwan, it could very well kick off in outer space, with both sides targeting the other's satellites that enable precision-guided weaponry. Cyber attacks on American cities and the sabotage of ports on the West Coast of the U.S. mainland could follow ◆  Economist, 2023-6-29:   if Taiwan war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little.  National Interest, 2023-6-29:   it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward... the weaker Taiwan’s political leadership and its military are, the earlier and more robust the U.S. intervention must be to maximize the prospect that Taiwan will avoid defeat.  The Diplomat, 2023-6-27:  Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan's military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. it could require  potentially several months – for the US to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to ... fight a major contingency in East Asia.   NPR.org, 2023-6-22:  the Council on Foreign Relations says that the U.S. and China are 'drifting toward a war' over Taiwan.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-22: can sanctions threat deter china from invading Taiwan? The answer, according to a new study, is a potential "yes" - but with big caveats  FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ◆ New York Post, 2023-6-19: Blinken ruffles feathers by stating US "does not support Taiwan independence" – as an inappropriate kowtow to America's greatest adversary.     Bloomberg, 2023-6-16 : Henry Kissinger believes military conflict between China and Taiwan is likely if tensions continue on their current course The Diplomat, 2023-6-17:  Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army SCMP, 2023-6-17: Washington believes Beijing is leaning towards the stick rather than the carrot because of its increasingly tough stance, analysts warn   National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States      full text

 

changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait

Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21: Effective deterrence requires credible threats to be matched with credible assurances. The G7 should make clear to Beijing it has no desire to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.  atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/sanctioning-china-in-a-taiwan-crisis-scenarios-and-risks/  Charlie Vest and Agatha Kratz AP (Germany Berlin), 2023-6-22: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned Beijing against using force to change the status quo with Taiwan  news.yahoo.com/germany-warns-china-over-taiwan-103947340.html
Global Times (China), 2023-6-21:  Blinken said "We remain opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side".  China's Foreign Ministry: the three China-US Joint Communiqués means that the US recognizes the real status quo in the Taiwan Straits, that is, there is only one China in the world, and both sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China. However, the US has unilaterally attached the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances to its one-China policy, these are not consensus reached by both China and the US.  The US is tampering with political commitments on one-China policy.   globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1292976.shtml 

 

Washington Post, 2023-6-14: Biden and Xi recognize that war between the two nations would be suicidal for both. They understand that the most dangerous flash point is Taiwan. While the nations’ differences over Taiwan are irreconcilable, irreconcilable does not mean unmanageable  Bloomberg, 2023-6-15: US Presses Taiwan Opposition Candidate Over China Policies; Washington will want to be assured that KMT's Hou has “a clear stance on China and international policy..."     full text

 

economist / The world's most liveable cities in 2023
City liveability index, Mar. 2023   -   Taipei ranks world No. 65, Asia's No.14

score

cities in Asia

90+ Melbourne, Sydney, Aucland, Adelaide, Osaka(Japan), Perth, Tokyo(Japan), Brisbane, Wellington, Singapore
 80-90 Seoul(Korea), Hong Kong(Chn),  Busan(Korea), Taipei (Taiwan), Kaohsiung, Taichung
60-80 Noumea, Nantong, SuZhou, Beijing, ShenYang, Shanghai, etc
top 5 cities: Vienna 98.4,  Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney, Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96
Score out of 100*  five categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education and infrastructure.

 

# MeToo in Taiwan

DW (Germany), 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's culture remains conservative, and chauvinism still exists in workplaces and politics. Victims may be "judged" by the public for sharing details....they may not be treated justly The Guardian (UK), 2023-6-8: The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society.  Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7: Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party

 

discrimination in Taiwan

Taipei Times, 2023-6-12: Taiwanese government actively courts Chinese tourists by the hundred thousand, immigration authorities hand out insult after insult to people whose skins are a bit too brown... the reality of its suicidally discriminatory immigration policies is painful for those of us who live and work here. Besides, over 1,000 nurses, have come from Hong Kong and are unable to obtain residency to work .taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2023/06/12/2003801383

 

TIME, 2023-6-7:  in the event of a potential conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, most Europeans would prefer to stay out of it.… It’s only when such events happen when we would really be able to see whether European perceptions and attitudes have changed or not Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1:  the PLA has a strong prospect of defeating the U.S. over Taiwan even if the U.S. commits its full forces. Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out? Economist, 2023-5-31: The next Taiwan president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown Washington Post, 2023-5-31: Taiwanese voters' choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path. Bloomberg, 2023-5-31: China could decide to launch a series of actions short of war — seizing one of Taiwan's small outlying islands, say, or interfering with Taiwanese shipping ... without provoking a US military response. The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. Washington Post, 2023-5-29: Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. Yes, China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia.  A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places.     full text

 

 

Taiwan could soon be under US nuclear protection?

Sky News (Australia), 2023-5-28 Analysts warn the  ‘nuclear umbrella’ agreement could be globally catastrophic as it would mean the US could use nuclear weapons if Taiwan was attacked. skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/taiwan-could-soon-be-under-us-nuclear-protection/video/732789a9ca7ee4de4c33a614a6a24c35
SCMP (Hong Kong), 2023-5-28 John Mearscheimer (U. Chicago):It would send a clear message to Beijing that "if they are to attack Taiwan, it will escalate to the nuclear level"Chang Yen-ting: "Taiwan's priority should be to get more advanced and effective weapons instead of seeking to be incorporated into the nuclear umbrella,"  a security analyst at the National Policy Foundation, says until today, the US has not entirely committed to using nuclear weapons to help defend South Korea in the event of a nuclear attack from North Korea."    msn.com/en-xl/news/other/us-nuclear-umbrella-for-taiwan-solid-cross-strait-shield-or-wishful-thinking/ar-AA1bMtGS
EurAsian Times, 2023-5-26 There has also not been any statement or reaction from either the Department of State, Department of Defense, or the White House on the statement from Joseph Wu. This implies the US has no plans to defend Taiwan using nuclear weapons.  eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-eyes-us-nuclear-umbrella-to-deter-chinese-invasion/   Parth Satam
Benzinga, 2023-5-29 Xi Jinping 'Unlikely' To Go Nuclear On Taiwan Amid Taipei's Bid For US Umbrella: Defense Experts, given the radiation spillover problem and the proximity of Taiwan to the Chinese mainland," 


Fortune, 2023-5-21: Warren Buffett  told Japan'Nikkei that the threat of war was a “consideration” in dumping the bulk of the stake in TSMC. Musk told the Financial Times that a conflict over Taiwan is inevitable. His comments did not go over well in Taiwan The Guardian, 2023-5-22: over 90% of the world's semiconductors are made in the place many US officials think could be the site of the next global conflict: Taiwan. Space News, 2023-5-22: Just the threat of an attack on GPS could be enough to deter America from defending Taiwan, according to some analysts. Loss of GPS would result in a profound degradation of America's military strike capabilities and severe economic and societal disruption to the U.S. homeland.  New York Times, 2023-5-17: As China looms over Taiwan's Presidential race, the opposition picks a moderate Hou Yu-ih, trying to appeal to voters wary of Beijing  Financial Times, 2023-5-15: even if the US had a broader plan to thwart Chinese economic growth, any such efforts would probably be unsuccessful. Xi should understand that global political power flows from economic power. China does not need to win a shooting war to expand its international power and influence.   Washington Post, 2023-5-12:  Taiwan's low defense spending is often explained by Taiwanese voters’ expectations of U.S. protection. Others might calculate that the stakes of China’s threats are not as high as the United States says, and that their lives might be able to continue mostly as normal even if Beijing did alter the cross-strait status quo Washington Post, 2023-5-10:  A war involving Taiwan would depend more on the U.S. Navy and Air Force, as well as hybrid warfare tools that are used in information and cyber operations. Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism  19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan  Washington Times, 2023-5-9: Taipei unnerved by investor fears, apocalyptic rhetoric, Taiwanese officials are trying to tone down alarmist comments made by U.S. investment gurus and policymakers about the risks of a clash with China, "the fearmongering talk coming out of Washington isn't helping"

 

 

Reuters Report (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023/taiwan)
Trust in Taiwan's news overall: 28%; Trust in news I use: 35%; Trust score in 2017/2018: 31%, score in 2022/2023: 28%.   Due to the intense competition in the media market and the interventions of owners, trust in news (28%) remains among the lowest in our survey. In the polarised media landscape, many brands with political colours are less trusted, whereas business publications tend to have higher levels of trust. PTS (55%) remains one of the most trusted brands this year, after internal improvements.

 RSF, <Reporters Sans Frontieres>, France, 2023: Taiwan's World Press Freedom Index - score 75.54, rank 35.

 

 

pic.: No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on Yahoo, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-5-31, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-22;  No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Yahoo, 2021-10-21,  2021-9-21, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 12-6-2020, 11-29-2020, 11-11-2020, 10-25-2020, 8-5-2020, 7-6-2020

 

 

 

Business Insider, 2023-5-3: In first-of-its-kind drill, US Army special operators train to defend Taiwan against Chinese attack, while the "ultimate backstop" remains America's nuclear capabilities, according to the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy   Daily Express, UK, 2023-5-3: WW3 fears as Taiwan issues a threatening statement about how it intends to handle imminent China invasion   le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle The Register, 2023-4-22: Taiwan asks US if it could chill out on the anti-China rhetoric "We're trying to run a chip business here"  New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other Brookings, 2023-4-15:   While Taiwan clearly is under growing military threat, it also is facing a simultaneous and intensifying Chinese political campaign to wear down the will of the Taiwan people.  New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait    Nikkei Asia, 2023-4-7: Taiwan's choice: peace or war, ex-president says after China trip    FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid      Newsweek, 2023-3-31:  "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing," " At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution."    Bloomberg, 2023-3-31: Washington's planned subsidies to “hollowing out” its world-beating chip industry, or that US defense strategists hope to provoke a war over Taiwan to ... cripple the People's Liberation Army — have gained noticeable traction    full text

 

Associated Press, 2023-5-2: Unclear who would help Taiwan in a war: Taiwan foreign minister

Japan S. Korea
 Asahi News, 2023-5-1: Asahi poll: 80% of voters said they are worried that Japan would be caught up in the armed conflict if the United States and China clashed over Taiwan, 56% want only SDF rear support to U.S. in event of Taiwan crisis. Which approaches to prioritize for its national security?  70% selected “deepening the relationship with China,” far more than the 26 % who chose “strengthening defense capabilities.”


Responsible Statecraft, 2023-5-2: It is naïve, however, to expect Japan to automatically fight China if the United States intervened militarily.   If Japan were to assume a neutral stance, China might be encouraged to use military force to realize its aim to bring Taiwan under its control. Recent war games conducted by the CSIS suggests that the United States would lose a conflict over Taiwan if it were unable to access bases in Japan. 

 

 

 The Diplomat, 2023-3-21: South Korea Will Stay Out of a Taiwan Strait War  Seoul’s desire to limit the damage in its relations with Beijing is strong enough that strikes on South Korean territory that killed only Americans would not necessarily bring South Korea into the war as a combatant against China.
South Korea would limit its support to actions near the low end of the spectrum – strong diplomatic statements, symbolic economic sanctions, and behind-the-lines re-supply of U.S. forces returning from battle.  

 

Axios, 2023-5-2: South Korea would be unlikely to consider sending troops into the Taiwan Strait. But the U.S. could pull some of its own 30,000-strong contingent out of Korea, and would likely expect Seoul to play a key support role.  That could leave Seoul exposed to retaliation from China, and more vulnerable to North Korea

 

  asahi.com/ajw/articles/14898395  responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/05/02/should-japan-defend-taiwan/    k. sugawa   thediplomat.com/2023/03/south-korea-will-stay-out-of-a-taiwan-strait-war/    axios.com/2023/05/02/taiwan-war-us-philippines-japan-korea-australia  d. lawler, b. a. ebrahimian

 

  Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28) :With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners   AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949, after the Chinese civil war....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington  Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy  full text

 

According to CNN, 2023-3-28, and 2023's “Asia's 50 Best Restaurants, Taiwan ranks No. 9 among Asia's countries, Taipei ranks No. 17 among Asia's cities, Taipei's Mume restaurant ranks No. 45 in top 50 restaurants, the number of Taiwan's restaurants entering top 50 is the least in recent 10 years.  Taipei's Logy ranks No. 57, but its chef is a Japanese.  Tapei's Adachi Sushi ranks No. 87, Kaohsiung's Liberte ranks No. 96.

 Asia’s 50 Best Restaurants 2023
theworlds50best.com/asia/en/list/1-50

rank

countries with the most wins

 number of restaurants selected rank

cities with the most wins

number of restaurants selected
1 China   (Hong Kong 5, Shanghai 2, ShenZhen 1, Macau 2, Beijing 1) 11 1

Bangkok (Thailand )

9
2 Japan    (Tokyo 7,  Osaka 1, Wakayama 1, Kyoto 1) 10 2

Singapore

9
3 Thailand  (Bangkok 9) 9 3 Tokyo (Japan) 7
4 Singapore 7 4 Hong Kong (China) 5
5 S. Korea 4 5 Seoul (S. Korea) 4
6 India 3 6 Shanghai (China) 2
7 Philippines 2 7 Macau (China) 2
8 Vietnam 1 8 Manila (Philippines) 2
9 Taiwan 1 9 Osaka (Japan) 1
No.1 Le Du (Thai.), No.2 Sezanne (Japan), No.3 Nusara (Thai.), 4. Den (Japan), 5 Gaggan Anans (Thai.)...No. 45 Mume (Taiwan Taipei)

 

Bangkok has long been considered a world capital when it comes to street food. But these days, its fine dining scene is proving to be just as alluring.  Though most of the winners on the list are fine dining restaurants, one street food eatery managed to break through the pack – Bangkok’s Michelin-starred Raan Jay Fai

10 Wakayama (Japan) 1
11 Mumbai (India) 1
12 New Delhi (India) 1
13 Chennai (India) 1
14 ShenZhen (China) 1
15 Kyoto (Japan) 1
16 Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam) 1
17 Taipei (Taiwan) 1
18 Beijing (Chn) 1

 

  Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive.  Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Taiwan's "porcupine strategy" calls for Taiwan to arm itself with thousands of mobile anti-ship and anti-air weapons, sea mines, drone strike systems, and other smaller, mobile systems. While it still struggles with two challenges: a continued preference for big-ticket defense systems, and US delays in delivering weapons  Economist, 2023-3-6:  The KMT  has been unable to articulate a new cross-strait strategy beyond continuing dialogue with the Chinese Communist Party.  the  DPP   has also been hesitant about telling voters to prepare for war. The DPP   has already softened its messaging, from Ms Tsai's slogan of  “Resist China and protect Taiwan”, to the more pacific “Peacefully protect Taiwan”. VOA Asia Weekly, 2023-3-9: Taiwan's so-called “silicon shield”  semiconductor is building its second US facility in Arizona, But Taiwanese officials worry that U.S. national security may come at a cost to their own.  Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan needs to prioritise becoming a porcupine, but they continue to build big ships and to buy better planes partly as a public-relations exercise. Politicians like to point to arms sales as evidence of American support. Better weapons boost morale.     full text

 

Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns

AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/   ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy.   msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h

 

 J Post, 2023-3-8:  we must be wary of China’s impatience, which fears undermining its credibility and exposing its national prestige to constant insults and provocations that could put it in a position where it would quickly opt for a military reconquest of Taiwan  FoxNews, 2023-3-7: Why does the U.S. keep on professing the maintenance of regional peace and stability while covertly formulating a plan for the destruction of Taiwan?" Chinese foreign minister Qin asked.    Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning  USNI, 2023-3-2:  Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.  Responsible Statecraft, 2023-2-28: The Washington Post: “In the current atmosphere of intense distrust, verbal assurances have to be accompanied by coordinated, reciprocal actions to reduce the risk of a catastrophic crisis.”  Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief:  Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan   New York Times, 2023-2-27: the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods EurAsian Times, 2023-2-26:  "No Boots On Ground': Majority Of US Voters' Chicken Out’ From Sending Soldiers To Taiwan To Battle China   Asia Society Policy Institute, Feb. 2023: evidence from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in 2022 augurs against an invasion or all-out blockade in the short term. PRC might seizure of one or more of the islands currently controlled by the ROC. Japan Times, 2023-2-24: Japan will, at best, be a (possibly reluctant) follower of a U.S.-led coalition to defend Taiwan...In case Chinese President Xi Jinping attempts to annex Taiwan, the stakes of confronting Beijing will be much higher for Japan and other U.S. partners than facing Moscow is for Europeans. New York Times, 2023-2-22: Gallagher argued that Taiwan could not be expected to build defense formidable enough to deter Beijing...without the US making good on a backlog of purchase order   WSJ, Fox News, 2023-2-23: The U.S. is preparing to send 100 to 200 troops to Taiwan for training amid rising tensions with China; The Wall Street Journal described the planned troop increase in the coming months as the largest deployment of American forces in Taiwan in decades.   Washington Examiner, 2023-2-23:  Taiwan views Russia's war in Ukraine as a fate that could await it if it doesn't take the proper steps needed to defend its democratic island nation from a potential Chinese invasion. TIME, 2023-2-23: Winning the tech war with China depended entirely upon persuading U.S. allies—particularly Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Japan—to follow the U.S. lead and adopt similar export control regulations      full text

 

  Aljazeera, 2023-2-23: CIA Director William Burns recently said although Xi was likely “unsettled” by Russia’s failures in Ukraine, he had still told China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.  Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan  (CBS  2023-2-19: China considering providing "lethal support" to aid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Blinken says)  Japan Times, 2023-2-19:  There is no evidence that China is in a hurry to attack Taiwan, despite a number of U.S. government and military officials citing 2027 or even 2025 as a potential deadline for forcible unification Daily Express, 2023-2-17: A "proxy war" between China and the US over Taiwan could happen during the Biden presidency  ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-2-17:  New House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman: Ukraine is capable of fighting on their own if we give them the weapons. Taiwan cannot fight this war alone, even if we gave them the weapons.   Washington Post, 2023-2-3: (China's) state-run People's Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with containing China.   Washington Post, 2023-2-2: Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch  Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines  Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan.  Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence   USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia   Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"  ◆ War On The Rocks, 2023-1-20:  Training, Not Arms Sales, Should Be the New Priority   WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first      full text

 

World's Best Hospitals 2023
by Newsweek & Statista
comparison among Asia's selected 12 countries

newsweek.com/rankings/worlds-best-hospitals-2023

Asia's rank

country

total number of top 250  hospitals

1 Japan 18
2 S. Korea 18
3 Australia 7
4 Singapore 5
5 Israel 3
6 India 3
7 Thailand 1
8 UAE 1
9 Taiwan 1
10 Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia 0
Taiwan's NTU Hospital ranks world No. 249
Asia's China, etc are not included in survey list - 28 countries in total
Why is Taiwan behind ?

(1) Taiwan got highest CovID death rate in Asia and entire world several times.
/  "Medicine should be prescribed but not prescribed, medicine should be taken but not taken" bad record of "failure to administer CovID remedy/medicine in time" Bloomberg, 2021-7-25: Taiwan's medical care system is also run on a tight budget to keep costs affordable Newsweek: These are challenging times for hospitals. COVID-19 put unprecedented stress on health systems.

(2) Not patient-centered /  not easy to register clinic and emergency, 7-10 waiting days to be hospitalized, 2-5 minutes for clinic diagnosis, shortage of some excellent medicines and newest equipments, number MDs per 10000 is very low, turnover rate of the nurses is high,
some chronic disease items score very low, poor internationalization, no value privacy,  Medical dispute,  problem of Rural patients and the disadvantaged...

 

New York Times,  2023-2-16,  News briefing
CovID death per 100,000 people since 2020
comparison among Asia's countries

Australia Taiwan S. Korea Indonesia Japan New Zealand Singapore China (official count)
74 70 65 59 55 50 30 6
China's official toll includes only infected people who died in hospitals

 

Biden's State of the Union speech - Taiwan war

The Hill, 2023-2-9 Biden's State of the Union speech on Feb. 7 buried these two clear and present dangers simultaneously confronting national security. When is the Biden administration going to recognize that we are essentially in the equivalent of WWIII?
Washington Examiner, 2023-2-1 State of Our Union: Biden's China policy tolerates excessive risks    The Biden administration is playing with fire by refusing to prepare for war.
The Hill, 2023-2-14  In his first State of the Union address in March 2022, President Biden, proclaimed, “In the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment";...  if China invaded Taiwan, would the international order really collapse? Would authoritarianism really spread throughout the globe? Is it in the U.S. interest to come to Taiwan’s defense? Are we prepared to send Americans into harm's way?

 

◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control. Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is.  ◆The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island. ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game  Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people  Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict. Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024  Insider, 2022-12-29: Easton: It would be very difficult and dangerous for the PLA to try to move on Taiwan proper without first suppressing Kinmen, the Penghus, and the Matsu islands (with a substantial number of missiles ) Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still     full text

 

New York Times, 2023-1-5: The Nuclear waste dump on Lanyu island created a generation of indigenous activists. "The government deceived us" the pastor said , "They didn't care that the nuclear waste would kill us, that the Tao people would go extinct".  Despite the government's repeated promises to relocate the site, the dump remains. Now, some residents run inns and restaurants on Lanyu. the focus these days is on tourism


  Politico, 2022-12-27:  The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won't even consider invading Taiwan. Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late ◆  France 24, 2022-12-26: Seventy-one warplanes deployed by China in war drills - the largest reported incursion to date Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent.  if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆  1945, 2022-12-12:  the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn’t Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential     Economist,2022-11-29:  many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China   DW (Germany), 2022-11-26: China said the midterm election result shows that "mainstream public opinion in the island is for peace, stability and a good life Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection    full text

 

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China

WSJ, 2022-12-27 a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP2022-12-27 The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however,  only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27  Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27 It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant   washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28 The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
 
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27 "a deplorable decision" made under US pressure  /   the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml    12-27

 

Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023?  Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas    Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games. Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely    Fortune, 2022-11-19:  U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14:  For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan ...The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China's goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system     full text

 

★  Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

CNN, 2022-12-9 Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’  /  TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US.  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html 
Global Times, 2022-12-9 Alarm is sounded after TSMC becomes ‘USSMC’  / it will be a key event marking a dark turn in the development history of the global semiconductor industry...Political pressure from Washington and subsidies and inducements are throughout the construction of TSMC’s plant in the US.  the DPP authorities are even more shameful. Not only do they have no resistance to US’ behavior of hollowing out Taiwan, but they act proactively, with their words and actions full of servility to Washington.    globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281494.shtml
Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly.    finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Financial Times, 2022-12-12  TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that  TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes  ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9
Reuters, 2022-12-6 Taiwan seeks to reassure on TSMC commitment to island despite U.S. investment   msn.com/en-us/money/markets/taiwan-seeks-to-reassure-on-tsmc-commitment-to-island-despite-u-s-investment/ar-AA14ZR39
New York Times, 2022-12-6 In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology  nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html
TIME, 2022-10-5 Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation.  time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/
New York Times, 2022-9-9 Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times, 2022-8-29 Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it.  Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
 National Interest, 2022-5-15 Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China
VOA News, 2021-5-10 Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.  
Fox News, 2022-8-26  Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue
New York Times, 2022-1-25 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia.  Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States.  nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
 CBS News, 2022-9-25 Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

 
Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips /

 
BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021

Taiwan S. Korea China Other
65% 18% 5% 12%

news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

 
 

 

Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis  is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war  NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. SCMP, 2022-11-10: General Mark Milley vows military support for Taiwan Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition   DW (Germany), 2022-11-8: Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline on Taiwan "reunification" Washington Times, 2022-11-8:  It would take at least a decade to design and build new types of ships and aircraft to counter China's threats... US Forces in the Indo-Pacific   may not be able to defend Taiwan successfully today National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution  between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan   USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade   Times of India, Next Shark, Yahoo, 2022-10-29:  Vladimir Putin declares Taiwan is 'inherent part' of China, blames 'granny' Nancy Pelosi for provoking the Taiwan-China conflict ( is expected to have long-standing impacts US News, 2022-10-27:  Russia's Sechin Says U.S. attempts to create its own complex microchip industry showed that "Taiwan's return to its native harbour" was "on schedule"   SCMP, 2022-11-3: China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification, even if US says so  WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28: U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan   SCMP, 2022-10-30: Tsai administration accused of stalling decision due to plan's unpopularity with young voters; Better training needed if Taiwan extends mandatory military service, experts say   Voice of America, 2022-10-22:  Analysts say even though Beijing doesn't want to go to war to reunify the two sides, it may feel forced to do so if the current trend of U.S.-Taiwan relations continues   BBC, 2022-10-18: China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, Blinken says, Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable ◆ New York Times, 2022-10-20:  The longer, written version of Xi's speech also stated that China has strengthened its “strategic initiative for China’s complete reunification,” suggesting greater urgency for its future plans     full text

 

Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur CNBC, 2022-10-18: Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force ◆ New York Times, 2022-10-17: China's leader warns of “perilous, stormy seas" ahead USNI news, 2022-10-18:  China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027  NPR, 2022-10-18: there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic unification Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... “Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake    full text 

 

Chinese Communist Party Congress  

CNBC, 2022-10-18 Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force
NY Times, 2022-10-16 China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — ‘strategic patience'
LA Times, 2022-10-16 Chinese Communist Party Congress affords another step for Xi Jinping's consolidation of power

   full text 

 

CBS News,2022-10-9: while much of the world thought an invasion might be imminent, polls showed that a majority of Taiwanese think that is unlikely any time soon, if ever..."This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade"   NY Times, 2022-10-5:  the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal". Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: Biden pokes at China again over Taiwan. At what cost to US national interests?  if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy  Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says NY Times,2022-9-10: Drones -the latest front in China's mounting campaign of intimidation and psychological warfare   NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action  NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆ Moscow Times (Russia), 2022-8-2: Russia Condemns Potential Pelosi Visit to Taiwan as ‘Provocation’ and accuses Washington of choosing "the path of confrontation." SCMP, 2022-8-21: PLA adopts nuclear deterrence to stop foreign intervention on Taiwan: analysts NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan    full text

 

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

♣ Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan   politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html
VICE, 2022-9-28:  no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA  vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

 

★  Biden "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"

CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...  Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html  
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous",  this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
The Guardian (UK), 2022-9-21 the president's remarks are provocative to Beijing without providing security to Taiwan or the USBiden is conveying anxiety rather than confidence  ... theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/21/biden-taiwan-comments-china-war-independence
DW (Germany), 2022-9-19 scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .   lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
 France 24 (France), 2022-9-19  most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approachmsn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19 Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19 Expert Bonnie Glaser: China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans, Prof. Lev Nachman: The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55
Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23 At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that  chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html
Modern Diplomacy.eu, 2022-2-25 Under the Budapest Memorandum, the US and UK promised to ensure Ukraine's security, geographical integrity and sovereignty, but, the world has seen that both the US and UK have not fulfilled their promise.  moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/25/ukraine-is-betrayed-by-the-us-and-uk/
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet  /  The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical  washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy  ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill.  China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said.   globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml 
The Conversation  (Australia),
2022-9-20
so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict.    news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html

 

  "Taiwan's midterms"

CNN, 2022-11-27: Taiwan's President billed midterms as all about China. The pro-independence DPP's losses come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – as a way to send a message against Beijing's rising bellicosity toward the island.   edition.cnn.com/2022/11/27/asia/taiwan-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.   Taiwan democracy
 

DPP-friendly mass media FTV (民視, 2022-11-28, 2022-11-27; ftvnews.com.tw/video/detail/h0489vFQzf4,  youtube.com/watch?v=2Nn4iEsCHGA, etc ) analyzed that one main factor causing DPP drubbed in local vote is war fears growing, which is why " Taiwan president strategy 'resist China and defend Taiwan' backfires" (Reuters, 2022-11-27).
 

media

comments

Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28 Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there wsj.com/articles/taiwan-ruling-partys-election-drubbing-could-ease-tensions-with-china-11669645587?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Independent (UK), 2022-11-27 Tsai's DPP campaigned on the political anger against China's stance towards Taiwan, the KMT focussed more on the self-ruled island’s democracy and freedom; Its campaign also pointed to whether the government favoured a local vaccine over imported ones.   msn.com/en-gb/news/world/taiwan-election-president-tsai-ing-wen-resigns-as-ruling-party-chair-after-disastrous-results/ar-AA14BJm0
Global Times (China),
2022-11-28
A loud "No" to DPP authorities' policies on a wide range of topics related to people's livelihoods including the chaotic COVID-19 response and the failure to rein in rising prices, and also demonstrated that Tsai Ing-wen''s "China threat bet" has backfired.  Such results proved the mainstream public opinion on the island was for peace.  Besides, failures in handling frequent scandals violating "values" it boasted about,  corruption, black gold politics and nepotism severely violated what the DPP had pledged to the people,  in many cases DPP sacrificed the interests of ordinary people and local companies such as relaxing a ban on food imports from Japan's sites of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and the US pork with ractopamine, DPP appeared to be incapable of handling the prices and livelihoods crises, and have also mulled lengthening the mandatory military service, a very unpopular idea among the youth.    globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280569.shtml
WSWS.org, 2022-12-1 Taiwan currently has the second-highest CovID-19 deaths per million.  While economic and social issues were major factors in the election, the result also reflects real fears about Taiwan being transformed into a US pawn for a war with China  wsws.org/no/articles/2022/12/01/bqmc-d01.html

 

Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"   New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine   NY Times, 2022-7-28: The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait. China may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States.   CNN,2022-7-29: Pelosi's possible visit potentially triggers the worst cross-strait crisis in decades ... the escalating tension barely made headline news in Taiwan this week. Taiwan has made few comments about the situation.   NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait  ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan  possibly by force  is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan  le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan  Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion  Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20:  Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military reforms  full text

 


China Taiwan issue in Le Monde diplomatic
 

pic. : Le Monde diplomatique
of France

depictes Taiwan-China issue
as :

 Taiwan, a
trembling sweating rat ,
 turning its back on an
approaching huge cat (China),
lifting high the banner "$O$
" . 



  artwork by Selcuk Demirel,  Mai '16
https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2016/05/BEAULANDE/55450

 

 

 

 

  Intro. to Taiwan

 

"We call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan", president Tsai has told BBC UK at Jan. 15, 2020, but later BBC changed it to "the Republic of China (Taiwan)".  This self-governing island country lies roughly 100 miles off the coast of southeastern China ( Taiwan's small island, Kinmens,  just one mile off China ) .  Taiwan's current population around 24 million is roughly the same as Australia's, close to New York's, but the area of Australia is 207 times larger than Taiwan's, that of NY is about 4 times Taiwan's.  Taipei's housing price is about triple Tokyo's or Singapore's.  Taiwan's climate is subtropical.
 

      means you should eat & drink nothing for 29.68 years
 to buy a house
in Taipei
  area population data , 2023 Ratio of house price to income
UK 7 Taiwan 3 Taiwan Taipei (Taiwan) 29.68
Japan 10 Taiwan 5 Taiwan Tokyo (Japan) 12.65
Australia 207 Taiwan same Singapore 15.73

  

Taiwan's travel and tourism competitiveness is ranked No.10 among Asian nations (WEF,  9-4-2019), ranked about No.13 in Asia & Pacific (Statista, 2-4-2021) , ranked n/a in 2022 (WEF) . Taiwan's higher education is ranked about No.7~9 in the region (QS  UK, Times, Nature Index, ARWU World 2019~2022) Taipei ranks No.53 in EIU's Global Livability Index Ranking 2022 Taiwan's justice ministry was insufficiently independent and was questioned the impartiality of judges and prosecutors involved in high profile, politically sensitive cases (USA Country Reports on Human Rights practices , 2018, 2019, 2021 ; http://intlhumanrights.com/PoliticalPersecutionsTaiwanENG.htm  ) CTN opinion (4-12-2019): Taiwan's three presidents should be ashamed of Taiwan's judiciary.  Taiwan's physicians density is almost the last in Asia Taiwan was still "in its early days" of building soft power  (abc news Australia, 9-28-2022) .Taiwan's soft power has never entered top 30 before CovID-19, losing Asia-Pacific's Japan, Australia,  NZ, China, Singapore, Korea, UAE, India, Thailand, Qatar in recent years (USC, Portland , Monocle's Soft Power Survey, 2010 ~ 2020)

 

To contrast China's 'authoritarian', Westerners gave too many fulsome compliments to Taiwan's democracy, however, Taiwan's democracy  is at surface level.  USA Country Reports on Human Rights practices (2022-4-12, 2021-3-30) There were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties in Presidential election in 2020.  Besides, Taiwan lacks good separation & balance of powers between the ruling party and the opposition, the executive and the legislative, the government and the media.  New York Post (4-25-2020) comments that Taiwan deals with CovID-19 with "a lot more authoritarian".  Global Times, 2022-8-11: under the guise of "democracy", the DPP authorities are practicing "green terror".  Taiwan's ruling party, DPP's official website : human rights abuses occur anywhere and anytime in Taiwan (https://www.gotv.ctitv.com.tw/2020/12/1648383.htm)

 

Economist at 2022-11-29 reported many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after president Tsai's refusal to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China during a severe coronavirus outbreak.   Guardian, 2021-7-12: Taiwan has rejected China's offers as fake altruism. ... putting politics above its people The priority of the CovID vaccination is to draw votes (electoral interest) instead of saving human lives, which is "cold-blood", "losing their souls " (ref. to China Times, 2021-9-7, United Daily, 2021-9-12, Guardian, 2021-8-14)

 

 Taiwan's press freedom is ranked No.43 in 2020 and 2021.  At end of 2020, Taiwan shuts Pro-China TV channel first ever since Taiwan's liberation, which could have a "chilling effect, strongly impacting press freedom".   The Liberty Times, 1-12-2020, editorial: The administration's rottenness smells already.... It has shown a retrogressive trend in recent years, the freedom of speech, publication, assembly etc were persecuted by excuses such as national security (NHU paper, Jun. '20). Taiwan not only harm its democracy for national security, but also harm its national security for democracy

 

Now China keeps inching closer to Taiwan, Economist (2021-5-1) describes Taiwan as "The most dangerous place on Earth", western experts (e.g., Foreign Policy, 4-5-2021, 10-28-2020, Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 ) advise Taiwan to make urgent defense reforms such as lengthening the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems, but, Taiwanese politicians are afraid to discuss this issue with the public because of electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders don't want to shift to a policy which could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling party (DPP), according to Foreign Policy (10-19-2020).  N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: 'A Looming Threat'  ──  but "politicians have electoral considerations".   Most younger generation don't want to be soldiers (China Times, 2022-9-28: 81.5% oppose one-year compulsory military service ).  Financial Times (UK), 2021-9-15 : Washington keeps scolding Taipei over its supposed lack of preparation against an ever mightier Beijing.  New York Times criticized Taiwan's nearly two million reservists "exist in name only" - Eventually, in Dec. 2022, Taiwan extends its mandatory military service - still shorter than that of Singapore, Israel, S. Korea... and president Tsia denied the decision was made under US pressure - it's a lie.    

 

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has identified that Taiwan as part of its territory and its most important core interest, since the Kuomintang (Nationalists or KMT) government retreated to the island in 1949 following defeat in the Chinese civil war.  Beijing regards reunification of the mainland and Taiwan is priceless  and a   "sacred mission” ,  'do or die' prestige issue,  and has traditionally used a double strategy  of “carrot and stick”  towards Taiwan, on one hand, it has vowed to reunite this "breakaway province" by force if necessary, and has been ramping up military, diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan since president Tsai I.W. (2016 ~) refused to recognise the "1992 consensus" a 'pseudo'-agreement made by Taiwan's KMT party and the Chinese Communist Party, that proclaimed "the existence of only one China ”, but “ with different interpretations ” (being free to decide which side was legitimate.).  In early 2019,  CCP Xi openly equates One Country Two Systems with the 1992 Consensus to eliminate other interpretations.   Under China's political development and strengthening its trade ties to our allies, Taiwan is diplomatically isolated, has only 13 formal diplomatic relation allies till Mar., 2023, most of them are little, unknown countries

 

On the other hand, China took the "carrots" strategy "Allowance of economic benefits to Taiwan"("讓利" ) so that Taiwanese people may have higher tendency toward unification with China ―― about 52% Taiwanese want closer economic ties with the mainland China.  Brookings, 1-22-2021: Only 23% Taiwanese thought that democracy was more important than economic development.  Washington Post, 2017-1-2:  83 percent chose bread ( economic ties with China) over romance (political independence) Taiwanese understood this interdependence is unavoidable, but over-dependence is risky. New York Times, 2022-6-22:  To Pressure Taiwan, China Flexes Economic Muscle...  L.A. Times, 2022-7-29: (Taiwan) The country's economy relies on China, its largest trading partner .  Washington Post, 2022-10-2142 percent of Taiwan's exports — and 60 percent of its chip exports — go to China.  But after China's largest ever drills around Taiwan to respond Pelosi's visit, New York Times (2022-8-7) comments the policy carrots that China has used to entice Taiwan toward unification may carry even less weight.

 

President Tsai (ruling party DPP) in her inauguration speech at 5-20-2020 reiterated that Taiwan calls for stability in China relations but would reject being ruled by China in the same way Hong Kong is.  Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports: In a major speech in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.  Then, in Mar., the PLA warplane crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" that has served as a "de facto border" (Newsweek, 8-11-2020) or "the de facto cease-fire line" ( Japan's asia nikkei review, 8-13-2020) for the first time since the end of Chinese civil war in 1949 (Newsweek, 8-12-2020). However, Taiwan's government was tight-lipped about this ultimatum, a everyone's life-and-death issue,  according to National Interest (6-16-2020): more than 60.3 percent of the respondents opposed Taiwan's independence if it is followed by China's military invasion...

 

Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).   The United States,  Taiwan's most important protector,  “acknowledges” there is one China and Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially “recognized” Taiwan as part of China.  The US Congress passed a law ("Taiwan Relations Act") to commit the US to defend Taiwan's sovereignty, and provide necessary 'defensive' services.   After Biden's 4th remark about defending Taiwan in Sept. 2022, it looks like the US has moved from strategic ambiguity to deterrence...  But CNN (2022-9-20) comments Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis.  In Dec. 2022,  the US Senate passed legislation authorizing $10 billion in security aid for Taiwan.

 

Till end of 2022, seeing US' actions on the Taiwan run counter to its clear political promise, the Chinese increasingly and really believe that the U.S. government is “salami slicing” and “hollowing out” the One China policy (US also blames China's salami-slicing behaviors against Taiwan ), as Beijing's ambitions grow and relations between the U.S. and China deteriorate.  Anyway, China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan - maybe not sending their troops.

 

After Vietnam war, Afghanistan withdrawal, and Ukraine-Russia war, Taiwan learns it must defend itself.  But Taiwan's defense budget remains scandalously low New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (suited to win against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.   Foreign Policy (8-20-2020) comments Taiwan just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue (Politico, 3-15-2021:Trump indicated (in 2019) America might not come to Taipei's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion.  ) Foreign Affairs, 2022-9-14: (US) military's most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s...This creates a window of vulnerability for Taiwan, most likely between 2024 and 2027.  

 

Taiwan also relies upon its computer chips as "silicon shield" to protect Taiwan, perhaps from a highly optimistic viewpoint.   Taiwan is the source of 90+ % of the most advanced computer chips relying upon importation of key components and advanced technology from the US  and Japan WSJ, 2021-6-19: The world relies on one chip maker in Taiwan, leaving everyone vulnerable.  That's one of the reasons we're trying to produce semiconductors here in the United States, Blinken told CBS (2022-9-25), but this will take years to accomplish at the cost of trillions of dollars (National Interest, 2021-9-11) .  Japan's日本経済新聞 (Nikkei news, Nihon keizai shinbun ) comments in May 2020 that the US asking TSMC-Taiwan to build a factory in Arizona as a "Pressure Point" in tech. fight with China (N.Y. Times, 5-19-2020)  may weaken Taiwan's security .  Some analysts argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war (NY Times, 2022-8-29).

Wikipedia (Oct., 2022): Taiwan is the 8th largest economy in Asia (Forbes, 2022-5-15: Taiwan is home to the world's 22nd largest economy), although its high-tech sector is falling behind for lacking of key tech. and its low pay to attract university-educated talent.   Global Wealth Report (Credit Suisse, Sept., 2022) shows Taiwanese' "Median wealth per adult", USD 113,940, is higher than Americans' USD93,270, but nation's share (Credit Suisse, Oct., 2018) world wealth (1.3%) is less than USA(31%), Japan(7.5%), China(16.4%) and Korea(2.2%).

 

 

 

     Taiwan  reviews              

 

The ROC on Taiwan, has its own constitution, independently elected president and military forces, However, Taiwan's image and brand personality were tarnished or damaged for having benefits by any means, and having principal human rights problems.  What's Taiwan's true colors?

 

Ethics of Taiwan politicians :  New Yorker (2022-11-21):  When the Chinese test-fired the ballistic missiles, Tsai Ing-wen didn’t tell the public that they flew over the island; that became known only after it was announced by Japanese leaders. When a Chinese drone flew into Taiwan's airspace, Tsai Ing-wen's government reacted with similar reserve... the government looks like it doesn't know what it's doing,” al jazeera, 2022-5-30:  Taiwan legislature erupts in violence over "secret expenses" billKMT lawmakers try to block bill they say could be used to overturn ex-President Chen Shui-bian’s corruption conviction   Guardian, 2021-7-12: China accused Taiwan has rejected China's offers as fake altruism. ... putting politics above its people   United Daily, 3-11-2021, editorial: smear, fragmentation, low dirty means ... Pan Green's propaganda campaign already beyond the critical point of morality. udn.com/news/story/7338/5309442  China Times, 3-12-2021: Ruling party ignoring bottom line of morality is grief of the country.  The Liberty Times, editorial (7-21-2020) reports only 2.3% Taiwanese politicians are trustworthy and have professional ethics, according to a survey half year ago,  56% Taiwanese note elected representatives (lawmakers, councilman, etc) care their own interest, only 9.3% think they care "national interest".  Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports:  In a major speech in January 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.   However, Taiwan's government was tight-lipped about this ultimatum, so that even famous commentator and analyst  know nothing about it, otherwise pro-Independence Tsai I. W. may not easily continue in presidential office in Jan. 2020, because, according to National Interest (6-16-2020): more than 60.3 percent of the respondents opposed Taiwan's independence if it is followed by China’s military invasion...   Taiwanese personality

●  democracy :   Economist, 2022-11-29: many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai’s refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China ... Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.   <