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News brief   ◆   The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China is on the fast track to wage war against Taiwan — and the US, experts say.  China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained. ◆    19FortyFive, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon);  China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces ◆ The Hill, 2023-9-19: The US election may well decide the fate of Ukraine, Taiwan and the rules-based international order ◆  Military, 2023-9-13: We lost the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Knowing our frailties, Xi will persist in pressuring Taiwan to dissolve from within, while employing military provocations to test America's martial resolve ... By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan ◆  Washington Examiner, 2023-9-6:  Former President  Donald Trump  hinted that he would not order a U.S. military intervention against  China  were it to attack  Taiwan  ◆   Foreign Policy, 2023-9-5:  China could exploit its geographical proximity and advancing capabilities to win a regional war against Taiwan.  U.S. deterrence against China ( to convince Chinese President Xi Jinping that an attack would fail. ) is not working.  The U.S. military may merely need to raise China's perception that any conflict would be drawn out and exceedingly costly.  ◆  American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029.  Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux.    ◆  Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation.  Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island.  No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. ◆ The Telegraph, 2023-8-22: China's Taiwan invasion: Battle for the Strait will be a colossal missile duel ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-8-22: China boasts record-high military recruitment, if military aid (Taiwan war) is needed, America's sagging recruitment numbers could be a problem.  ◆  full text

 ◆ Daily Mail, 2023-8-18: China rehearses invasion of Taiwan with troops storming 'sea defences' in chilling wargames - while Beijing and Russia stage joint naval exercises in the Pacific.  the CCP has more than 600 million citizens of military age, fit-for-service citizens from which it could theoretically source new troops endlessly. ◆  Bloomberg, 2023-8-16: China's PLA Daily published an editorial Wednesday saying Taiwan independence would mean the breakout of a war and that its pursuit would be a “road to ruin.”;  The comments are the clearest signal yet  ◆ The Hill, 2023-8-15: China and Russia are waging another Cold War; President Biden frequently expresses his fear about World War III ◆  New York Times, news brief 2023-8-14: A Taiwanese presidential contender (Lai Ching-te) walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. ◆  The Hill, 2023-8-8: More ominously, the failure of the world's toughest-ever sanctions regime to bring Russia to heel could embolden China's expansionist designs against Taiwan, especially since similar sanctions against Beijing would have even less impact. Yet the U.S. is still not giving sufficient priority to deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan.  ◆  Washington Examiner, 2023-8-7:  the predictable outcome now seems all but certain: whether during Taiwan vice-president Lai's visit or in the weeks following, the two nations' recent detente will fade amid their intractable political differences ◆  The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action  ◆  Washington Post, 2023-7-29: U.S. to provide up to $345 million in military aid to Taiwan;  a defense analyst in Taiwan was skeptical of the aid package and pointed to “serious delays in recent years in the delivery of numerous U.S. arms sales” to Taiwan. ◆  Bloomberg, 2023-7-29: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines have said they don’t see an effort by China to seize Taiwan by force as imminent ◆  Fox News, 2023-7-28 :  The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place  ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen.  ◆  Bangkok Post, 2023-7-28: Beijing's military supremacy over Taiwan 'growing swiftly' - Japan's 2023 white paper - the gap between China and Taiwan appears to be growing year by year ... During the exercises (Last Aug.) , the Chinese military may have simulated operations for "invading Taiwan" ◆  Financial Times, 2023-7-23: Washington is reducing some long-term deployments in the Indo-Pacific,...the US's decision to help Ukraine only with weapons and the wavering of some European countries about support for Kyiv do not bode well for Taiwan  ◆ BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date.   ◆  full text

◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-7-24:  China and Russia train together to sink US submarines.  the U.S. retains a key, though diminishing, advantage in undersea warfare. U.S. submarines remain a thorn in China's side. ◆  Daily Express, 2023-7-23: Japan says:  If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan...the government would need to first secure the support of the population before intervening. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-7-17:  Taiwan abandoning the One China framework aggravates the risk of war ◆ ResponsibleStatecraft.org, 2023-7-17: War with China over Taiwan? Don't expect US allies (Japan, Australia, Korea, Philippines, Thailand) to join  ◆ Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the US will help Australia acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines. This will enable Australia to conduct operations such as anti-submarine warfare against China's subsurface fleet. Similarly, Japan will acquire counterstrike capabilities, which will include purchasing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. These would allow Japan to target China's missile launchers and command-and-control sites that would be key to an invasion of Taiwan. But there is uncertainty over not just the kind of support allies would provide, but over whether they would provide any at all. ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.  ◆  National Interest, 2023-7-16: extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation  ... it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan ◆  National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen: If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan. ◆  CNN, 2023-7-14:  it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island.  ◆  Reuters, 2023-7-14:  US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan  in the coming years.  ◆   Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”◆  West Point, 2023-7-11:  <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan>  implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war, and  highlights a fundamental component of warfare that applies to an attempted Chinese forceful reunification of Taiwan—that the war will be won or lost by land forces on the ground.  ◆  Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  ◆   Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.  While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield". ◆  Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,... ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.  The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern.  ◆  full text

◆  NPR, 2023-7-3:  More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation. ◆  CBS News, 2023-7-2: Several sources within the Pentagon tell 60 Minutes that if China invaded Taiwan, it could very well kick off in outer space, with both sides targeting the other's satellites that enable precision-guided weaponry. Cyber attacks on American cities and the sabotage of ports on the West Coast of the U.S. mainland could follow ◆  Economist, 2023-6-29:   if Taiwan war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. ◆ National Interest, 2023-6-29:   it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward... the weaker Taiwan’s political leadership and its military are, the earlier and more robust the U.S. intervention must be to maximize the prospect that Taiwan will avoid defeat. ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-27:  Washington and the U.S. public might opt against intervention if Taiwan's military rapidly collapsed or if the conflict appeared to be a lost cause. it could require  potentially several months – for the US to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to ... fight a major contingency in East Asia. ◆  NPR.org, 2023-6-22:  the Council on Foreign Relations says that the U.S. and China are 'drifting toward a war' over Taiwan.  ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-22: can sanctions threat deter china from invading Taiwan? The answer, according to a new study, is a potential "yes" - but with big caveats  ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ◆ New York Post, 2023-6-19: Blinken ruffles feathers by stating US "does not support Taiwan independence" – as an inappropriate kowtow to America's greatest adversary.  ◆   Bloomberg, 2023-6-16 : Henry Kissinger believes military conflict between China and Taiwan is likely if tensions continue on their current course ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-6-17:  Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army ◆ SCMP, 2023-6-17: Washington believes Beijing is leaning towards the stick rather than the carrot because of its increasingly tough stance, analysts warn  ◆ National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States    ◆  full text

◆ Washington Post, 2023-6-14: Biden and Xi recognize that war between the two nations would be suicidal for both. They understand that the most dangerous flash point is Taiwan. While the nations’ differences over Taiwan are irreconcilable, irreconcilable does not mean unmanageable ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-6-15: US Presses Taiwan Opposition Candidate Over China Policies; Washington will want to be assured that KMT's Hou has “a clear stance on China and international policy..."   ◆  full text

◆ TIME, 2023-6-7:  in the event of a potential conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, most Europeans would prefer to stay out of it.… It’s only when such events happen when we would really be able to see whether European perceptions and attitudes have changed or not ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-6-1:  the PLA has a strong prospect of defeating the U.S. over Taiwan even if the U.S. commits its full forces. Elbridge Colby : "If Taiwan is so blithe about its own defense, why should Americans stick their necks out? ◆ Economist, 2023-5-31: The next Taiwan president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-31: Taiwanese voters' choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-5-31: China could decide to launch a series of actions short of war — seizing one of Taiwan's small outlying islands, say, or interfering with Taiwanese shipping ... without provoking a US military response. ◆ The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-29: Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. Yes, China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia.  A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places.   ◆  full text

◆ Fortune, 2023-5-21: Warren Buffett  told Japan's Nikkei that the threat of war was a “consideration” in dumping the bulk of the stake in TSMC. Musk told the Financial Times that a conflict over Taiwan is inevitable. His comments did not go over well in Taiwan ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-22: over 90% of the world's semiconductors are made in the place many US officials think could be the site of the next global conflict: Taiwan. ◆ Space News, 2023-5-22: Just the threat of an attack on GPS could be enough to deter America from defending Taiwan, according to some analysts. Loss of GPS would result in a profound degradation of America's military strike capabilities and severe economic and societal disruption to the U.S. homeland. ◆  New York Times, 2023-5-17: As China looms over Taiwan's Presidential race, the opposition picks a moderate Hou Yu-ih, trying to appeal to voters wary of Beijing ◆  Financial Times, 2023-5-15: even if the US had a broader plan to thwart Chinese economic growth, any such efforts would probably be unsuccessful. Xi should understand that global political power flows from economic power. China does not need to win a shooting war to expand its international power and influence.  ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-12:  Taiwan's low defense spending is often explained by Taiwanese voters’ expectations of U.S. protection. Others might calculate that the stakes of China’s threats are not as high as the United States says, and that their lives might be able to continue mostly as normal even if Beijing did alter the cross-strait status quo ◆Washington Post, 2023-5-10:  A war involving Taiwan would depend more on the U.S. Navy and Air Force, as well as hybrid warfare tools that are used in information and cyber operations.◆ Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan ◆ Washington Times, 2023-5-9: Taipei unnerved by investor fears, apocalyptic rhetoric, Taiwanese officials are trying to tone down alarmist comments made by U.S. investment gurus and policymakers about the risks of a clash with China, "the fearmongering talk coming out of Washington isn't helping"

◆Business Insider, 2023-5-3: In first-of-its-kind drill, US Army special operators train to defend Taiwan against Chinese attack, while the "ultimate backstop" remains America's nuclear capabilities, according to the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy ◆  Daily Express, UK, 2023-5-3: WW3 fears as Taiwan issues a threatening statement about how it intends to handle imminent China invasion ◆  le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle ◆ The Register, 2023-4-22: Taiwan asks US if it could chill out on the anti-China rhetoric "We're trying to run a chip business here" ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-15:   While Taiwan clearly is under growing military threat, it also is facing a simultaneous and intensifying Chinese political campaign to wear down the will of the Taiwan people. ◆  New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. ◆ The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait ◆   Nikkei Asia, 2023-4-7: Taiwan's choice: peace or war, ex-president says after China trip ◆   FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid   ◆   Newsweek, 2023-3-31:  "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing," " At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution."  ◆  Bloomberg, 2023-3-31: Washington's planned subsidies to “hollowing out” its world-beating chip industry, or that US defense strategists hope to provoke a war over Taiwan to ... cripple the People's Liberation Army — have gained noticeable traction  ◆  full text

◆  Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28) :With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners ◆  AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949, after the Chinese civil war....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington  ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. ◆  full text

 ◆ Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive.◆  Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Taiwan's "porcupine strategy" calls for Taiwan to arm itself with thousands of mobile anti-ship and anti-air weapons, sea mines, drone strike systems, and other smaller, mobile systems. While it still struggles with two challenges: a continued preference for big-ticket defense systems, and US delays in delivering weapons ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6:  The KMT  has been unable to articulate a new cross-strait strategy beyond continuing dialogue with the Chinese Communist Party.  the  DPP   has also been hesitant about telling voters to prepare for war. The DPP   has already softened its messaging, from Ms Tsai's slogan of  “Resist China and protect Taiwan”, to the more pacific “Peacefully protect Taiwan”. ◆ VOA Asia Weekly, 2023-3-9: Taiwan's so-called “silicon shield”  semiconductor is building its second US facility in Arizona, But Taiwanese officials worry that U.S. national security may come at a cost to their own.  ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan needs to prioritise becoming a porcupine, but they continue to build big ships and to buy better planes partly as a public-relations exercise. Politicians like to point to arms sales as evidence of American support. Better weapons boost morale.   ◆  full text

◆  J Post, 2023-3-8:  we must be wary of China’s impatience, which fears undermining its credibility and exposing its national prestige to constant insults and provocations that could put it in a position where it would quickly opt for a military reconquest of Taiwan ◆  FoxNews, 2023-3-7: Why does the U.S. keep on professing the maintenance of regional peace and stability while covertly formulating a plan for the destruction of Taiwan?" Chinese foreign minister Qin asked.  ◆  Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning ◆  USNI, 2023-3-2:  Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.  ◆ Responsible Statecraft, 2023-2-28: The Washington Post: “In the current atmosphere of intense distrust, verbal assurances have to be accompanied by coordinated, reciprocal actions to reduce the risk of a catastrophic crisis.” ◆ Washington Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27: CIA chief:  Xi Jinping has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan; China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan ◆  New York Times, 2023-2-27: the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods ◆ EurAsian Times, 2023-2-26:  "No Boots On Ground': Majority Of US Voters' Chicken Out’ From Sending Soldiers To Taiwan To Battle China ◆  Asia Society Policy Institute, Feb. 2023: evidence from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress in 2022 augurs against an invasion or all-out blockade in the short term. PRC might seizure of one or more of the islands currently controlled by the ROC. ◆ Japan Times, 2023-2-24: Japan will, at best, be a (possibly reluctant) follower of a U.S.-led coalition to defend Taiwan...In case Chinese President Xi Jinping attempts to annex Taiwan, the stakes of confronting Beijing will be much higher for Japan and other U.S. partners than facing Moscow is for Europeans. ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-22: Gallagher argued that Taiwan could not be expected to build defense formidable enough to deter Beijing...without the US making good on a backlog of purchase order  ◆ WSJ, Fox News, 2023-2-23: The U.S. is preparing to send 100 to 200 troops to Taiwan for training amid rising tensions with China; The Wall Street Journal described the planned troop increase in the coming months as the largest deployment of American forces in Taiwan in decades. ◆  Washington Examiner, 2023-2-23:  Taiwan views Russia's war in Ukraine as a fate that could await it if it doesn't take the proper steps needed to defend its democratic island nation from a potential Chinese invasion.◆ TIME, 2023-2-23: Winning the tech war with China depended entirely upon persuading U.S. allies—particularly Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Japan—to follow the U.S. lead and adopt similar export control regulations    ◆  full text

 ◆ Aljazeera, 2023-2-23: CIA Director William Burns recently said although Xi was likely “unsettled” by Russia’s failures in Ukraine, he had still told China’s military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. ◆ Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan  (CBS  2023-2-19: China considering providing "lethal support" to aid Russian invasion of Ukraine, Blinken says)  ◆ Japan Times, 2023-2-19:  There is no evidence that China is in a hurry to attack Taiwan, despite a number of U.S. government and military officials citing 2027 or even 2025 as a potential deadline for forcible unification ◆ Daily Express, 2023-2-17: A "proxy war" between China and the US over Taiwan could happen during the Biden presidency  ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-2-17:  New House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman: Ukraine is capable of fighting on their own if we give them the weapons. Taiwan cannot fight this war alone, even if we gave them the weapons.  ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-3: (China's) state-run People's Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with containing China.  ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-2: Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. ◆ US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war;  it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch ◆ Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines  ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence  ◆ USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia  ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"  ◆ War On The Rocks, 2023-1-20:  Training, Not Arms Sales, Should Be the New Priority ◆  WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. ◆ Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first    ◆  full text