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intro. of Taiwan |
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about China's ability to invade Taiwan |
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◆ Economist, 2024-12-5 | The views (the period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out for several years) are not universally shared, in or out of government. “Xi has his foot firmly on the accelerator and a full tank of gas". |
◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-12-4 |
Chinese leaders have said they want their military to be prepared to
invade Taiwan by 2027,
though U.S. defense leaders have said the date does not guarantee a
decision to carry out such an operation has been made.
War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles "very rapidly", national security adviser J. Sullivan acknowledged that China has "the single biggest advantage", "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC" . |
Taiwan's pres. Lai flies to US, angering China |
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◆ CNN, 2024-12-1 | Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te in Hawaii: A stopover that speaks volumes. Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing will respond with military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan does largely pay for its defense, through billions of dollars spent on US-made weapons. And unlike Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, it is not shielded by a mutual defense treaty with the United States. |
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-12-1 |
Taiwan's President begins Hawaii
stopover
and sends a firm but conciliatory
message to both China and the incoming Trump administration: While
Taipei doesn't seek a war with Beijing, it is
counting on U.S. support to deter any aggression from its larger
neighbor.
"Transits" are part of careful arrangements made between Washington and
Taipei to allow its leaders to engage with each other on American soil
after the two severed formal diplomatic ties in 1979. |
Taiwan Prepares for Trump's Return. |
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◆ New York Times, 2024-11-24 | Trump couldn't care less about Taiwan... Maybe he will strike some sort of bargain with Taiwan. But whatever Taiwan can offer him, Beijing can easily top. More and more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess piece,” no longer valued by the United States. China amplifies these fears... |
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-11-18 |
Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is
at stake, that it
can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in
the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war. Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP—a lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and South Korea's 2.7%; In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness. |
◆ Fox News, 2024-11-10 | Trump's public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny island democracy (Taiwan). there is hope among restraint groups that Trump will be focused on economic warfare with China – rather than military. "We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ... the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. " |
◆ New York Times, 2024-11-10 | Tump's call for Taiwan to spend more on its own defense and his complaints about its semiconductor dominance may herald a tenser relationship. |
◆ Business Insider, 2024-11-9 | In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it. |
◆ New York Times, 2024-11-6 | Some diplomats expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade Taiwan; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the US. “With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist, “And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with great risk for Taiwan.” |
◆ Washington Post, 2024-11-6 | Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” ... |
◆ New York Times, 2024-11-6, news briefing | Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say, "defending Taiwan is not in our interest.” ... |
◆ Bloomberg, 2024-11-5 | Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove harmful for Taiwan's semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some anticipate. |
◆ Reuters, 2024-11-6 | Trump might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's compromise on trade. |
◆ The
Atlantics, 2024-10-25: Taiwan's
military, in a word, is incompetent.
The need for reform is more urgent than
ever. Taiwan very likely
could not defend itself from a full-scale invasion on its own.
... ... isn't just
outnumbered and outgunned. More troubling, its armed forces are plagued by poor
planning and training, insufficient stockpiles, a sclerotic command system, and
weaponry that may be ill-suited to defend against an invasion.
◆ New
York Times, 2024-10-22:
If tensions continued rising, China would
likely deploy expanded drills again, coordinating between its various
military services and showing off modern warfare capabilities;
But the frequency of such incursions also raises the risk of a conflict,
accidental or otherwise, that could draw in the United States.◆
Foreign
Affairs, 2024-10-16:
By almost universal agreement, the
Taiwan Strait has emerged as the most combustible flash
point in the world. ◆
Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-10-16:
Taiwan and other U.S. partners
will need to contend with an increasingly capable and aggressive
China and rising
isolationism and protectionism in the United States. Trump's
foreign policy pronouncements reflect sentiments held by many in the United
States.
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New York Times, 2024-10-16:
David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign
Relations, said PLA's activities are coming
closer and closer to Taiwan shores.
China's military drills were aimed at demonstrating its
potential to choke Taiwan's access to food and fuel and block the skies
and waters from which the United States and its allies would presumably
approach in coming to the island's defense.
pic. :This websites group was ranked top "introduction to Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia, 2024-12-2, 2024-10-28, 2024-10-15, 2024-8-31, 2024-8-8, 2024-7-11; No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia (largest engine in Russia) at 2024-5-20, 2024-5-12, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-14, 2024-3-15, 2024-2-28, 2024-2-3, 2024-1-1, 2023-12-29, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-25, 2023-7-1, 2023-5-31, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-21, 2022-8-8
No.1 "introduction of Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia, 2024-9-15, 2024-5-12, 2024-4-14, 2024-3-15, 2024-2-28, 2024-2-3, 2024-1-1, 2023-12-29, 2023-12-24, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1; No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" at 2022-7-31, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-24, 2022-6-15, 2022-6-12, 2022-5-26, 2022-5-14, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-14, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-21; No.2 at 2024-10-28, 2022-4-9, 2022-2-25; among top ranks at 2022-12-12; No.3 "introduction of Taiwan" at 2022-12-17
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China's "the Joint Sword 2024B" military drills set a record |
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◆ le Monde, 2024-10-15 | Taiwan announced that it had detected a record 153 Chinese aircraft in one day near its territory. |
◆ Bloomberg, 2024-10-15 | China sent a record 111 warplanes across a US-drawn boundary in the strait separating the sides. |
◆ Insider, 2024-10-15 | A record-breaking 153 Chinese warplanes flew around Taiwan in war games meant as a warning. |
◆ Reuters, 2024-10-15 | Taiwan says China uses record number of aircraft in war games. |
◆ BBC, 2024-10-15 | the deployment and how close Chinese ships and aircraft were to Taiwan - as well as the fiery rhetoric - could be seen as very aggressive behaviour - a dramatic escalation . |
◆ Asia Times, 2024-10-15 | expert: the latest military drills and the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on September 25 have sent a clear signal to the US that China is building an “area denial” capability that the US can no longer fight against |
China's response to national day speech by Taiwanese President William Lai |
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◆ BBC, 2024-10-14 | With new drills, China is sending a message to Taiwanese President William Lai that moves towards "Taiwan independence" are bound to meet a "dead end". "Scared" and "desensitised" - here's how people on the streets of Taipei are talking about the exercise involved all parts of the military and simulates a full-scale attack on its neighbour. |
◆ USA Today, 2024-10-14 | China launches 'punishment' drills as 'Stern warning' |
◆ National Review, 2024-10-14 | The dragon will not be appeased; There should be no question that the scale of China's naval and air-force exercises represents an existential threat to Taiwan's sovereignty. Perhaps the Taiwanese are too confident. Officials seem convinced that their dominance of the global semiconductor industry represents a deterrent against aggression. They can hold the world's consumer electronics industry hostage in the event of ...... |
◆ Japan Times, 2024-10-15 | China says it won't rule out use of force to take Taiwan as war games end |
◆ Reuters, 2024-10-14 | Senior Taiwan security official says pressure on Taiwan from China is 'not light' |
◆ Reuters, 2024-10-12 | China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after denouncing president's speech |
◆ Chicago Council on Global Affairs , 2024-10-8: Should China invade, Americans support ... ?
If China were to invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United States: (% support) | |||
yr. | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
Using the US military to airlift food and medical supplies to Taiwan | 74% | 78 | |
Imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on china | 72% | 75 | 76 |
Sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government | 59% | 62 | 65 |
Sending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China | 36% | 39 | 40 |
Taiwan's president in first National Day speech |
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◆ Financial Times , 2024-10-10 | Taiwan's president calls on China to ‘live up to’ duty to protect peace. China accused Lai of “deliberately severing the historical connection” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait; and has threatened to annex it with military force if Taipei indefinitely resists its control. China has not previously responded to a Taiwan president's national address with military moves |
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-10-10 | Taiwan leader urges calm amid military threats... Lai Ching-te, who China accuses of separatism, says Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan |
◆ Washington Post , 2024-10-10 | Lai Ching-te says Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan. |
◆ Washington Examiner , 2024-10-11 |
Lai Ching-te declared “On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving... These are fine words. Unfortunately, words can't shoot down missiles. In that regard, Taiwan has a big problem. a 2.5% of GDP defense budget is a sad joke. Taiwanese reserve forces lack adequate training and readiness, and its military procurement remains too reliant on platforms that lack agility and survivability...... |
◆ Reuters, 2024-10-10 | China said Lai was a stubborn adherent of Taiwan independence, full of confrontational thinking, "constantly provoking troubles and deliberately aggravating cross-strait tensions". "Lai Ching-te has made every effort to piece together the grounds for secession" |
◆ Bloomberg , 2024-10-11 | Lai reiterated that that neither side of the strait separating the two sides was “subordinate to each other.” Beijing criticized for sending “a dangerous signal of seeking independence.”... his speech showed “he is hell-bent on Taiwan independence and has the ill intention of heightening tensions in the Taiwan Strait for his political, selfish interest.。Taiwan's President signals he'll stand up to China challenge |
◆ AFP , 2024-10-10 | China warned after the speech that Lai's "provocations" would result in "disaster" for the people of Taiwan. |
◆ Foundation of Defense of Democracies, 2024-10-4: Indicators the CCP is about to launch a large-Scale, coordinated economic warfare campaign in conjunction with military exercises. The tabletop exercise confirmed that an integrated cyber and economic warfare campaign is a significant risk for Taiwan. The compounding financial and psychological effects impose escalating political pressure on Taipei without crossing any U.S. redlines ◆ Brookings, 2024-10-3: Beijing is pursuing two parallel paths, significant military build-up and "coercion without violence" to compel the people of Taiwan to accept some form of union with the People’s Republic of China as a least bad option for Taiwan's future. "what do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?” Such skepticism has stayed hard-wired into Trump’s worldview. The common thread among these utterances is Trump (team) suggestion that Taiwan is too small and far away for the United States to feel obliged to defend. Harris said in 2022 that the US would “support Taiwan's self-defense, consistent with our longstanding policy.”◆ Associated Press, 2024-10-5: Beijing could wage an economic and cyber war to force a surrender from Taiwan without direct use of military power, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, said in the report◆ Foreign Policy, 2024-10-4: Taiwan's greatest vulnerabilities extend beyond its military ── financial, cybersecurity, and energy risks that China could exploit.
Taiwanese are ready for fighting ?? |
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◆ Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative to the U.S. is warning that China has ramped up its aggression toward the island, and that its people are ready to fight. |
◆
Washington
Post (2024-8-4):
“Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing
where the fight is happening, when the fight is happening” . The island is patently not ready for that. ◆ National Interest (2024-8-29): the Taiwanese are not well prepared for the kind of attack that China is plotting. ◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21: Taipei has not made the necessary preparations. |
◆ Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative to the U.S. suggested they would be eagerly accepted if (help from U.S. troops) offered. "If your house is under fire, and they respond to help you with a bucket of water, would you say no?" | ◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Zelensky's now-famous refusal —”I need ammunition, not a ride” — But Taiwan will almost certainly be asking potential allies to engage in a direct military intervention. |
◆ Economist, 2024-10-3: China is using an "anaconda strategy" to squeeze Taiwan. "They are ready to blockade Taiwan at any time they want", Taiwan's navy commander warns. The government may be worried that too much disclosure would damage Taiwan’s public morale or economy ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-9-25: most security analysts say China would be able to conquer Taiwan by force, albeit at a potentially considerable cost. Today China's outmatches Taiwan's both in size and quality. ◆ New York Times, 2024-9-25: Taiwan and U.S. work to counter China's drone dominance. U.S. policymakers may be leery of depending too much on Taiwan for drone parts. Some worry about industrial secrets leaking to China. If Taiwan were to come under a Chinese blockade or attack, American drone makers could lose flows of vital components
China's strategy to achieve its political objective of unification |
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◆ Brookings, 2024-9-16 | Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve its political objective of unification.To subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and “gray zone” military tactics... seeks to deplete the confidence of the people brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/ |
◆ Politico, 2024-9-11 | Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower |
◆ War On The Rocks (2024-9-20): Washington is quietly watching how Taiwan's new president Lai consolidates power using the court to prosecute former vice premier Cheng Wen-tsan over corruption allegations. The arrest and detention of TPP chair Ko Wen-je on corruption charges have Lai's critics protesting that he is using the judiciary to persecute rivals. Washington observers might worry that Lai is undermining the independence of the judicial system...
U.S. SEAL Team Six ── resisting China's invasion ? |
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◆ Voice of America, 2024-9-14 | the secret and precise combat characteristics of the United States Navy's elite SEAL Team Six mean its role in resisting China's invasion of Taiwan would be very limited and the focus would be on carrying out special tasks. |
◆ Financial Times, New York Post, 2024-9-12 | SEAL Team Six has spent more than a year training for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. However, it remains unclear if the US would engage in combat against China given its policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan. The US has so far declined to explicitly say it would come to Taiwan's aid if attacked. |
◆ Reuters, 2024-9-11: China says it is verifying email tipoffs about Taiwan 'separatist' activity ◆ Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2024-9-11: Beijing wades into Taipei drama over corruption probe against TPP leader, and has accused Taiwan's president of persecuting Beijing-leaning revals ◆ National Interest, 2024-9-5: A Taiwan war could mean U.S. aircraft carriers are 'going to the bottom'. Some leaders are looking to lessons from Ukraine to make the Taiwan Strait a “hellscape” for Chinese forces. In this scenario, the U.S. floods the region with autonomous aerial, surface, and subsurface drones, to buy Taiwanese and coalition defenders time to move assets into the region to blunt a Chinese assault. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-9-2: Elbridge Colby's argument has always been that Taiwan isn't itself of existential importance to America. Rather, our core interest is in denying China regional hegemony over Asia. Taiwan is very important for that goal, but not essential ◆ NBC News, Reuters, 2024-8-31: the use of China's tactics and strategies against Taiwan is still limited by the natural geographical environment of the Taiwan Strait and insufficient landing equipment and logistic capabilities, But China is speeding up development of a slew of new weapons, such as the H-20 bomber and hypersonic missiles and beefing up the number of nuclear warheads, and China has other options to threaten Taiwan, such as inspecting foreign cargo ships ◆ Times of India, 2024-8-30: Taiwan's heavy reliance on imports—97% of its energy and 70% of its food—makes it particularly vulnerable, according to report from CSIS. such an action could force the US and its allies into a dilemma: whether to engage militarily, risking a larger war with China, or to impose sanctions, which could hurt their own economies and global stability.◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-8-28: Elbridge Colby suggested the U.S. may not come to Taiwan's defense in the event of Chinese aggression. Robert O'Brien urged Taiwan to spend at least 5% of its gross domestic product on defense.◆ Insider, 2024-8-29: Taiwan is rethinking its use of US-made anti-tank missiles after less than half hit their targets in recent combat drills ◆ SCMP, 2024-8-29: according to the Cato Institute, a Washington-based think tank, a substantial backlog of US$19.1 billion worth of weapons ordered by Taiwan has piled up, some of which has been delayed for a decade or more; Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity has undercut Taiwan's ability to defend itself against Beijing, sending mixed signals to China... ◆ Business Insider, 2024-8-23: within the next six months, an aggressive, short-of-war campaign could force some of Taiwan's most vulnerable islands into a quarantine. Involvement by the US and its allies will be critical in maintaining Taiwan's resistance ◆ Washington Post, 2024-8-21: a new and troubling strain of isolationism is emerging within the Republican Party that advocates for turning our backs on Taiwan and other allies. This new isolationism, masquerading as realism, dismisses the strategic imperatives that have underpinned American foreign policy ◆ Atlantic Council, 2024-8-21: The period between delivery and integration is often invisible to the public. If the US government openly admits that Taiwan may be unable to use the systems already behind schedule for delivery, it could incentivize Beijing to seek unification by force. ◆ NPR, 2024-8-19: As rhetoric heats up over whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, there is also growing skepticism in Taiwan over U.S. reliability as a security partner. ◆ Wired, 2024-8-19: The Pentagon Is planning a drone ‘Hellscape’ to defend Taiwan. CNAS (Jun. 2024): the US defense industrial based may not be “ currently capable of producing the quantities of drones needed for a war with China. ◆ National Interest, 2024-8-17: Tensions between China and Taiwan threaten to boil over. Multiple experts, including this author, believe some kind of major Chinese move against the island democracy is at hand. ◆ Newsweek, 2024-8-16: China researchers call for 'Shadow Government' in Taiwan ahead of takeover. Expert: "nothing short of military action" would bring Taiwan into the fold ◆ The Hill, 2024-8-13:The West's failure to deter Russia's aggression , and its subsequent failure to support a Ukrainian victory is the most important of the pertinent lessons for the looming China-Taiwan conflict...China built the circumstances that would keep the U.S. out of the fight, with an arsenal of anti-ship ballistic missiles and a fleet of attack submarines ◆ SCMP, 2024-8-13: Beijing's spy agency 'destroyed large number' of Taiwan intelligence networks. More than 1,000 cases of Taiwanese espionage were uncovered in crackdown ◆ Council on Foreign Relations , 2024-8-9: The consensus of most foreign observers is that Taiwan is still not taking the existential threat that it faces seriously enough and should raise defense spending far more rapidly. The PRC's multi-decade military modernization effort continues to widen the capability gap compared to Taiwan's military ◆ The American Reservative , 2024-8-9: the Republican policy platform did not include a specific statement regarding the fate of Taiwan. The party platform’s silence on Taiwan represented a notable departure from previous platforms, which explicitly announced that a Trump administration would come to the aid of Taiwan if anything threatened to change in its present status ◆ Washington Post, Star and Strips, 2024-8-4: the “Zero Day” show's bleak assessment of Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing President Lai Ching-te, new programs have continued to face shortages of funding, instructors and equipment ◆ CNBC 2024-8-5: Taiwan under pressure to bolster its defense as Trump-Harris presidential race stokes policy concerns
◆ National Interest, 2024-7-30: Taiwan spends less as a percentage of GDP on its defense than the US (2.6 % compared to 3 %). On top of that, Taiwan does not have a strong draft. Taiwan's politicians likely realize better than Washington that Taiwanese voters may not be as inclined to make the kind of heavy sacrifices that are necessary to defend their freedom ◆ Bloomberg (2024-7-24): China squeezes Taiwan by targeting islands and fishing Sites ── The Chinese Coast Guard is now “constantly” patrolling east of the median line in the Taiwan strait; It's likely that China will increasingly harass fishing boats and sightseeing boats to test Taiwan's response, China's detention of the vessel may also be a subtle test of the US.
◆ New York Times, 2024-7-16: many Taiwanese officials are convinced that their island will be vulnerable unless it quickly steps up preparedness. The upcoming presidential election in the United States adds another element of unpredictability to the tensions.◆ National Interest, 2024-7-13: Taiwan and its partners needed to find a steady path, avoiding both complacency and hysteria. President Biden should reverse course and reiterate the stated policy of ambiguity ◆ Financial Times, 2024-7-10: Experts warn that Taiwan remains woefully underprepared for war. ◆ Le Monde, 2024-7-11: Taiwan reports record-high Chinese military aircraft activity in 24 hours ◆ Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11: China sent a record number of warplanes across a U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new president of the archipelago mulls a trip that may include a stop in America◆ New York Times , 2024-7-3: China Seizes Taiwanese Fishing Boat in Latest Uptick in Tensions; Bonnie Glaser: China wants to demonstrate to Taiwan that it does not have control over air space and sea space...and sends a signal to Lai that he is very close to their red lines and he had better not cross them.
◆ Nikkei Asia , 2024-7-2: China pressures Taiwan's Lai (Ching-te) with most jet fighters in nearly 2 years ◆ Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is pursuing “separation” from China in “incremental” fashion. ◆ The Atlantic Council, 2024-6-27: It is more challenging for Taiwan to win that level of support than it is for Ukraine, given Taiwan's contested political status and China's relentless international campaign against it. Taiwan worries less about a sudden Chinese military invasion than about slow strangulation... Foreign Affairs writes that Taiwan's major military investments are not well aligned with the insidious nature of the gray-zone threat. ◆ CNN, 2024-6-22 : China could take Taiwan without even needing to invade ── Quarantine ── will make it far harder for the United States and other like-minded democracies to counter ◆ Daily Express, 2024-6-23 : In a move that escalates already high tensions, China has issued a dire warning to Taiwan independence advocates, threatening them with the death penalty. ◆ New York Times, 2024-6-17 : ... the United States would step in if China truly threatened to invade. But that belief is not universal among Taiwanese politicians and voters, some of whom are skeptical about American dedication and intent...Not all Taiwanese people welcome the tightening embrace (strategic integration) between Taiwan and the U.S. ◆ Financial Times, 2024-6-16 : China's President Xi Jinping told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan. The White House did not comment.
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2: The U.S. is getting China's calculations wrong. The assumptions are :China won’t invade unless provoked, and that China still needs to get its military built to attack. but China is determined to subvert and manipulate the island's politics. ◆ FoxNews, 2024-5-28: House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose, if China invaded Taiwan." ◆ New York Times, 2024-5-27: I just think our defense industrial base is overloaded right now, and it cannot handle this amount of conflict in the world.”, McCaul said ◆ New York Times, 2024-5-20: Many experts believe that if the Chinese government tries to force Taiwan to accept unification, it may first attempt using a ring of military forces to severely restrict air and sea access to the island.◆ Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president, the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy ◆ New York Times, 2024-5-20: Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te vows to keep the island democracy safe in the face of Chinese pressure and wars raging abroad ◆ CNN, Reuters, Fox News, Independent (2024-5-17): Taiwan parliament brawl escalates into night as lawmakers shove, tackle and hit each other - Taiwan's opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), along with the People's Party, wants parliament to have greater scrutiny over the government. The clashes raise the prospect of more turmoil - and parliamentary conflict - ahead for Lai's new government after it takes office
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◆ Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15: China said it would sanction five Taiwanese political commentators and roll out a law to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office ◆ Reuters, 2024-5-15: China's military has sailed and flown closer to Taiwan in recent weeks than it has before ◆ Foreign Policy, 2024-5-12: One former defense official suggested the use of “low-yield tactical nuclear weapons” in the event of a conflict with China. The possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin using such weapons sent shock waves of horror through the world, but the idea of employing them in a war with China became normal in some circles ◆ The Telegraph, 2024-5-11: Just recently Beijing manoeuvred 12 ships to within four nautical miles of Taiwan. The United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has a clear list on what you can do inside someone else's territorial waters (less than 12 nautical miles off the coast) ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-5-10: hard to believe that any fight with the United States over Taiwan would not include preemptive or retaliatory strikes against our military facilities in Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and perhaps even the U.S. mainland...key U.S. supply chains, including those related to national security, are dependent on China, giving Beijing the ability to strangle America possibly.◆ Defense News, 2024-5-7: DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But experts said Chinese law doesn't have timelines for an attack on Taiwan;“All politicians want options, so the last thing you want is to be tied to a deadline.”◆ ABC News, 2024-5-1: The US is in a Cold War with China over Taiwan. Taiwan is really existential to U.S. interests because of its position in the region. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-30: Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports as global demand for electronics picks up, benefiting the producer of high-end chips. ◆ The Telegraph, 2024-5-1: ... Beijing's hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons – not to enable an attack on Taiwan at a chosen date, but to ensure that with the balance of power changing in China's favour, it will not be needed. Xi is betting on political disarray and disunity among the US and his Western allies ◆ Business Insider, 2024-4-27: A host of warning signs point to China preparing for military action against Taiwan. Military forces are being deployed nearer to Taiwan than ever, effectively shortening Taiwan's reaction time. ◆ USNI News, 2024-4-23: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Issues - A key consideration for U.S. policymakers is whether and if so how to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself in a possible cross-Strait conflict without triggering such a conflict. ◆ New York Times, 2024-4-23: in the Foreign Aid Package, the House attached a provision that would allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advanced U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from invading the island. ◆ New York Times, 2024-4-18: The House is set to vote on a foreign aid package for Taiwan - allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advance U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from launching an invasion ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-15: Appointing a national-security team that is almost identical to that of his predecessor will help reassure the White House that Lai isn't likely to sharply alter Taiwan's posture toward Beijing; Bringing a civilian into the defense ministry can promote reforms, Taiwan's military will likely accelerate spending on asymmetric capabilities, a path that many in Washington have called for as Taiwan focuses on deterring an attack by a much larger Chinese military ◆ CNN, 2024-4-10: It's the first time a former president of Taiwan has been hosted by China's top leader in Beijing since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT fled to Taipei in 1949.
◆ Daily Express, 2024-3-20 : World on the brink as Taiwan admits US troops stationed on Chinese border. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed in 2023 facilitated the deployment of these troops to conduct training programs for Taiwanese frontline forces. ◆ Foreign Policy, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan imports 97 percent of its energy through highly vulnerable maritime shipping routes. Any quarantine, blockade, or invasion of the island by China would devastate its ability to sustain basic services and critical infrastructure—not to mention the factories that produce approximately 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Solutions are in short supply. ◆ War On The Rocks, 2024-3-14 : U.S. public support for Taiwan, which is as high as it has ever been according to polls, supports aiding Taiwan to defend itself against China in the event of an attack, but consistently opposes any direct military intervention by the United States. ◆ Daily Express, 2024-3-13: Taiwan war with China given latest seal of approval by US with new deadly weapon (the Link 16 comm. system ) in a move set to escalate tensions between Taiwan and China delivery. Link 16 acts as the brain and nervous system of Taiwan's military apparatus, places control firmly in US hands. ◆ Daily Express, 2024-3-8: China - with its military build-up, hoarding of food, and military recruitment drives - is preparing for something big; A recent documentary aired in Mainland China also added to expectations that a move on Taiwan is imminent. Recent purges of top military brass might be an attempt by CCP leader Xi Jinping to eliminate all opposition to invading or blockading Taiwan in the near future. Anyone who thinks China would be deterred because of the economic impact of war ought to remember Zero Covid and how political considerations outweighed economic factors.
Taiwan classifies the military move against intrusion as "First strike" |
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◆ EurAsian Times, 2024-3-10:Taiwan has authorized its commanders to use lethal military force on intruding Chinese warplanes that cross its aerial and maritime territorial borders. Classifying the military move as a “first strike,” ...Ministry of National Defense says “that if enemy aircraft or vessels intruded into Taiwan’s airspace or waters, then commanders are authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security when all other non-peaceful means fail.” eurasiantimes.com/china-ill-prepared-to-annex-taiwan-top-pla-general/ | ◆ United Daily (Taiwan), 2024-3-10: a group of China's fishing boats entered Taiwan's internal waters (6 nautical miles) and destroyed our fishing-net, but Taiwan was inactive about it. udn.com/news/story/11091/7821748?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2 |
◆ The Hill, 2024-3-5: In China's legislature, Premier Li's report had stronger language on Taiwan - Dropping the word “peace” combined with the phrase “resolutely opposing Taiwan independence,” is what signals a stronger stance ◆ EurAsian Times, 2024-3-5: Admiral Samuel Paparo, leading the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could soon use military drills to cover up an invasion of Taiwan. Thus, the writing is on the wall. ◆ New York Times, 2024-2-26: Chinese forces crossed the median line 302 times, essentially erasing it as a functional boundary. China also has essentially established a permanent naval presence around the island. ◆ CNN, 2024-2-27: Today Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world hasn’t seen in a century – since before World War Two. Xi's military build-up is, by comparison, larger than Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan combined. his ambitions in nuclear, space, and AI warfare are advancing at lightning speed... characterized by a high degree of projective self-confidence and a lot less patient on the Taiwan issue. ◆ Council on Foreign relations, 2024-2-27: Taiwanese society has grown increasingly skeptical of the United States, which has been enhancing its political relationship with Taiwan but without enhancing its international standing or offering it tangible economic benefits. the increased number of official visits to Taiwan has been perceived as largely symbolic ◆ Financial Times, 2024-2-23: Previous statements only pledged to ‘resolutely oppose’ Taiwan independence, but now China’s Communist party toughens Taiwan rhetoric with call to ‘fight’ independence ◆ VOA, 2024-2-23: recent Chinese coast guard activities actions will likely become a "new normal" near Taiwan’s outlying islands. We can expect China to conduct similar operations near Kinmen and Matsu Islands ◆ Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry. So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. ◆ CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.
◆ Asia Times, 2024-2-19: China may be preparing for a drawn-out war, citing IISS think tank assessment. That may mean focusing more on its reservists and reexamining operational plans for long-term industrial and logistic sustainment. RAND mentions that due to Taiwan's military disadvantages and low durability, a US intervention would be required to repel a Chinese invasion ...with 25 out of 28 naval wars from the Peloponnesian War to the Cold War being won by superior fleet numbers, with only three won out of technological advantage ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: Were Japan or South Korea to go nuclear, Beijing might conclude that they needed considerably more than the 1,500 warheads, then both the United States and Russia would likely seek to expand their arsenals, too. ◆ DW, 2024-2-16: the blockade would be a very special threat for Taiwan... neither the conventional capability, nor asymmetric capability, can be effective to deter or defend for this operation ◆ CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would also quickly spread across the globe and into cyberspace and space. There would also be real risk of a nuclear exchange. If China uses force to assert control over Taiwan, it would mark the definitive end of the post-World War II international system ◆ The Lowy Institute, 2024-2-12: a Chinese invasion is probable this decade – (1) the trajectory of Taiwan's politics is away from the mainland (2) China's economic growth has plateaued (3) US export controls turn Taiwan into a Western bastion (4) the Silicon Shield is being eroded (5) The “one China” discursive framework has decayed (6) the military balance of power no longer is guaranteed in the long term◆ Reuters, 2024-2-6: the latest high-tech weapons delivered by the U.S. were often locked up in storehouses. The armed forces as burdened by "unprofessionalism, defeatism and Chinese nationalism". ◆ Business Insider, 2024-2-6: During last year's APEC summit, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly told President Joe Biden that China fully intends to take over Taiwan — a move that could result in a hot war in the region ◆ National Interest, 2024-2-2: hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future ◆ Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means ◆ Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-1-31:China says the U.S. could abandon Taiwan if Trump wins the Presidency; In July, Trump avoided directly answering a query over whether as president he'd defend Taiwan if China attacked. ◆ Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.◆ Semafor, 2024-1-26: whether or not these investments (more than 1.6 million reserve personnel) would count for much in the case of a potential invasion by Beijing “remains to be seen,”...As Taiwan continues to adjust to shifting demographics – such as its aging population and declining male-to-female ratio – the current one-year conscription policy for men may need lengthening further. ◆ The Telegraph, 2024-1-26: The PLA is in crisis. That won’t stop China invading Taiwan. the US intelligence community and Defense Department have consistently underestimated the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army and its intentions ◆ National Interest 2024-1-24: the possibility of Washington sacrificing Taiwan in a deal with China that would benefit the United States financially would rise significantly under another Trump administration. Taiwan's unfortunate fate is that it will always be vulnerable to a sellout by the United States. This danger may be increasing. ◆ The Hill, 2024-1-23: according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario ◆ Semafor, 2024-1-24: according to Foreign Policy, Incoming President William Lai must also convince young people “who are more concerned with trying to pay their bills than preparing for war,” that an invasion threat is real and they are the first line of defense.◆ New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away. Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”. Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. ◆ New York Times, 2024-1-13: Beijing loathes the new president, Lai Ching-te. He aims to protect the status quo with caution and American help, but tensions are likely to rise ... Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure...Mr. Xi's views on Taiwan were clear. That includes his insistence that force can be used if necessary.
◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-10: increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-1-8: According to the Economist, China has directly warned the U.S. of the consequences of a Lai victory, raising tensions in the region. In the event of a Lai victory, large-scale demonstrations from the Chinese military and other belligerent moves are expected. The prospect of Taiwan severing ties with a China ... possibly leading him to warm to direct military action. ◆ NBC , 2024-1-9: China has framed the (Taiwan) election as “a choice between war and peace.”; Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, described Taiwan's security situation as “urgent but not immediate.”◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. much of Taiwan's defense budget is locked into capabilities that are neither survivable nor potent.” Taipei is relying on the U.S. Air Force and Navy to ride to the rescue. The best path to preventing a war of “unification” is probably to postpone it, ideally indefinitely, through fictions such as the “one China” policy ◆ Reuters, 2024-1-5: A Hou presidency could help stabilize cross-Strait relations, lower the near-term threat level, and buy more time for Taiwan's defense reforms to be implemented," Templeman of Stanford University's Hoover Institution said ◆ Reuters, 2024-1-3: 'Hawkish' China military squeeze on Taiwan likely after election. If the DPP wins the presidency but loses its majority in parliament, that could also temper China's response given it would weaken the DPP's ability to pass legislation ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-12-29: In Taipei, Lai Ching-te paints a picture of a Taiwanese public far less preoccupied with Beijing's designs than political leaders in the Western world. The KMT accused the DPP of underplaying the deterioration of cross-strait ties and the risk of war ◆ CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan ◆ New York Post, 2023-12-26: Xi Jinping says China's ‘complete reunification’ with Taiwan will ‘surely’ happen
Taiwan Presidential election debate 2023-12-30 |
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◆ VOA News , Washington Post, AP, 2023-12-30 | Taiwan's presidential candidates expressed desire for peaceful relations with Beijing. Tensions with China have featured strongly in the presidential campaign. Lai Ching-te promised to help strengthen Taiwan's defense and economy if elected. Hou said he opposed Taiwan's independence but also a potential unification under China's “one country, two systems” framework. Ko Wen-je, referenced a quote by Antony Blinken, saying that “Taiwan and China will cooperate if they can cooperate, compete if there’s a need to compete, and confront each other if they must confront each other.”; my bottom line is that Taiwan must maintain its current democratic and free political system and way of life. voanews.com/a/taiwan-s-presidential-candidates-emphasize-peace-with-beijing/7418610.html |
◆ Reuters (UK), 2023-12-31 | China calls Taiwan president frontrunner a destroyer of peace,"His words were full of confrontational thinking," after he spoke at a presidential debate the island's sovereignty and independence belong to its people, the Republic of China and People's Republic of China "are not subordinate to each other". KMT's Hou has denounced Lai as an independence supporter. news.yahoo.com/china-calls-taiwan-president-frontrunner-012538807.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
◆ DW (Germany), 2023-12-31 | Presidential candidates debate in shadow of China。Lai remained defiant, at one point insisting that, "The sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to the 23 million people in Taiwan. It does not belong to China”, "I will not go backward like the Kuomintang and be willing to become a vassal of totalitarianism... There are so many uncertainties regarding their policies". msn.com/en-in/news/world/taiwan-presidential-candidates-debate-in-shadow-of-china/ar-AA1mfuFn |
◆ AFP (France), 2023-12-30 | China ties dominate Taiwan presidential debate,Ko, whose small TPP has performed above expectations in Taiwan's dominant two-party landscape, called President Tsai's cross-strait policies "a mess". The results of which could determine Taipei's future ties with an increasingly bellicose China. msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-ties-dominate-taiwan-presidential-debate/ar-AA1meDRj |
◆ Reuters, 2023-12-30 | The televised debate was dominated by arguments over China and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.。Taiwan belongs to its people: presidential candidate,"The current status quo is that the Taiwan Strait is on the brink of war. So, to maintain close ties with the United States while also making peace with China is the solution to the problem," Hou said news.yahoo.com/taiwan-belongs-people-presidential-candidate-131009794.html |
◆ The Guardian, 2023-12-30 | All three presidential candidates have acknowledged the potential risks of Taiwan becoming the next conflict zone. They aim to convince voters that they are the most capable leaders who can ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan strait, for Beijing the priority is to ensure the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) is kicked out of office. theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/30/taiwan-election-new-president-growing-threat-china Helen Davidson |
◆ SKY News (Australia), 2023-12-31 | the race has become more unpredictable. The stakes for Taiwan's future have never seemed more unsteady, in light of rising tensions with China. skynews.com.au/world-news/our-future-has-never-seemed-more-unsteady-what-taiwans-2024-presidential-race-means-for-the-islands-rapidly-deteriorating-relationship-with-china/news-story/fe83df822e798ea6452659ceab914849 Hilton Yip |
media |
China's invasion |
◆ GB News, 2023-12-25 | So we should be working with Taiwan right now privately telling them we're not going to fight for you. “We just can't get into a war that could go nuclear, it would be foolish.” |
◆ NBC, 2023-12-26 | Xi's private warning on reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal presidential election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan. (ps: no plan to send military troops) |
◆ Daily Express, 2023-12-23 | The Taiwan war is coming - and the West will need boots on the ground |
◆ New York Post, 2023-12-21 | China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Biden often talks tough, but shies from any action he fears will “escalate” a confrontation — forever leaving the initiative in the hands of America's adversaries. |
◆ First Post, 2023-12-22 | Japan says that an invasion of Taiwan by China is imminent and that it is preparing for the repercussions |
◆
NBC Universal, 2023-12-21:
War of Words / Experts say China is pushing influence campaign as Taiwan
preps for Presidential Election.
majority of voters don't favor closer ties to China or to the US, instead, they
want to preserve the status quo with Taiwan
◆
Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18:
although China would respond to a Taiwan
declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this
would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not
ready to undertake such a complicated campaign;
a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that
includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and
intimidation, a low-risk approach,
targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is
gradually working.◆
Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
, 2023-12-13:
Taiwan is
a country that suffers from one of the lowest
trust rates in the media among
democracies (28%) and where the media community is often
criticised for disregarding journalism ethics...
journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated
by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of
quality news reporting.
◆
The Conversation, 2023-12-11:
poll finds more than 80% of
Taiwanese people believe the China threat is worsening – prospects for
peace and stability are also affecting the island’s international
business and investment outlook.◆
The Diplomat, 2023-12-11:
Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face
an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other
candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024
elections
◆ Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict... ◆ Defense News, 2023-12-5:The real danger is that Chinese leaders calculate a window exists for them to achieve a fait accompli before the United States has sufficient combat power in the region...Unfortunately, the logistics problem defies simple solution for the US... |
◆
Fox News, 2023-12-3:
Joint Chiefs chairman says 'we all should be' worried about China
possibly invading Taiwan ◆
The Hill, 2023-11-30:
Americans now want the U.S. to focus its military efforts in the Middle
East over East Asia, a month into the Israel-Hamas war;
when it comes to the overall military capability, the United States no
longer has outright superiority, but the American people clearly have
not internalized that. ◆
New York Times, 2023-11-26: Taiwan, a highly
online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in
the world for disinformation from foreign governments.
RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable
effects”. Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a
political witch hunt, Taiwan's media
ecosystem, with its diverse
political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be
misattributed to Chinese manipulation.
◆
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24:
Nottingham scholar says that there is
zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets
reversed if Lai Ching-te wins.
It will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation
of pressures and threats
...
will
impact the nature of the US's already tense
ties with China.
◆
Washington Post,
2023-11-21:
Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan /
on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan —
Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi:
'peace is all well and good,
but at some point we need to move toward resolution more generally'
◆ Newsweek,
2023-11-21: an
overwhelming majority (7/10) of people in Taiwan do
not believe the United States is trustworthy, according to a new poll released
on Monday. Most, however, were convinced by America's commitment to the island's
safety.
◆
Economist,
2023-11-13:
Strategists worry about a “window of vulnerability” in the Indo-Pacific
this decade, as China’s forces grow stronger and America’s investments
in new military equipment don’t fully bear fruit until the 2030s...As
for capacity, the Pentagon long ago abandoned the requirement that its
armed forces be able to fight two major regional wars simultaneously.
◆
The WEEK,
2023-11-13:
Historically, Taiwan has been an "easy target for Chinese spies", It is "not very strict about
punishing espionage"...China has "penetrated many
parts of the Taiwanese government over the decades", said The New York
Times
pic. :
This websites group was ranked No.1 "introduction to Taiwan"
|
western media | Taiwan's presidential election |
Economist, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan's opposition parties unite... could lead to a significant relaxation of the island-state's defiant posture towards China |
Washington Post, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan's two main opposition parties, both of which have vowed to restart talks with China, announced a joint presidential ticket for January’s election in a deal that could bring a major political upset in the self-ruled island democracy. |
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 | in any case, support for the DPP has been fading ahead of January’s presidential elections. But voters in Taiwan tend to be lukewarm toward candidates seen as too pro-China, and the DPP still leads in several polls. |
Bloomberg, 2023-11-15 | a single opposition bid raises the likelihood of a government in Taipei more willing to accept China’s conditions for direct talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. |
TIME, 2023-11-15 | A successful opposition alliance — no matter who is running as president — means it’s likely cross-strait tensions will improve |
Financial Times, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan’s opposition parties join forces for crucial presidential poll Deal sharply increases odds that ruling Democratic Progressive party will lose election; Beijing has denounced Lai as a separatist and framed the presidential race as a choice between war and peace — rhetoric sometimes echoed by the opposition. |
Reuters, 2023-11-15 | Some opinion polls have shown that if Hou and Ko teamed up, in whatever combination, they would beat Lai 。Tamkang University scholar: The U.S. and China both want stabilised Taiwan Strait relations. Lai may not be the ideal person for this |
◆ Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion ◆ Newsweek, 2023-11-9: Taiwan's long wait for nearly $20 Billion in American weapons, asymmetric weaponry accounts for $4.22 billion, or 22 percent of the backlog. ◆ BBC, 2023-11-9: If Taiwan is not controlling sensitive and secret information very well… You should expect any competent foreign intelligence service to get access to it. ◆ BBC, 2023-11-6: In Washington there is a strong sense that Taiwan is running out of time to reform and rebuild its military. In a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - repelling an invasion on the beaches and, if necessary, in the towns and cities ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-29: Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities - make a greater effort to stockpile not only munitions, but also food, water and energy. It needs to adopt a whole-of-society approach to its defense that emphasizes national resistance, resilience and the willingness to fight. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-26: Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says ◆ Economist, 2023-10-26: 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-22: Foxconn, Apple's Manufacturer in China, Is Said to Be Under Tax Audit ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally. ◆ SKY News (Australia), 2023-10-21: Taiwan has been accused of permitting modern modern-day slavery with its migrant workers...migrant workers are often mistreated in an unfair system which needs to be overhauled.
Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries |
||
★ |
Hong Kong |
Taiwan |
Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) | US$ 202,410 (world No.3) | US$ 108,250 |
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) | US$ 551,190 | US$ 273,790 |
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023) | HK $36,583 (about TWD147,204) | TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897 |
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14) | about TWD 84,000 | about TWD 43,000 |
Market Capitalization (UDN, 2023-12-14) | more than double of Taiwan's | about USD 1.7 trillion |
★ At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank. |
Reuters, 2023-10-24 : Who is running to be Taiwan's next president? |
|
LAI CHING-TE | Lai and Tsai Ing-Wen say only Taiwan's people can decide their future. |
HOU YU-IH | strongly denies being pro-Beijing, and will restart talks with Beijing. |
KO WEN-JE | China should propose a new framework for engagement with Taiwan and explain what Beijing has to offer |
◆ SCMP, 2023-10-21: Taiwanese defence minister admitted it would be "impossible" for the island's military to block a saturation attack. The inadequate training given to Taiwanese reservists after discharge has been known for some time, drawing criticism from the US, ...Taiwan could also learn from Israel about maintaining a lasting public enthusiasm to fend off the enemy ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-16: if Xi concludes that the United States has broken, once and for all, from its previous position on Taiwan and is bent on thwarting unification, he may feel that he must act militarily. If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan, it will set a precedent in which Chinese leaders kill and destroy to achieve their goals. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-16: The U.S. has known since no later than 2012——that Chinese surface-to-surface (STS) missiles can destroy U.S. aircraft carriers, or any other military asset that isn't submerged; Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption. A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order ◆ VOA News, 2023-10-13: Expert says : for Taiwan, the most important thing is whether the intelligence it has gathered can help Taipei prepare for potential military conflicts, Taiwan should also assess whether it can promptly mobilize its forces and whether its forces can react to sudden attacks swiftly... there's a question about whether Taiwan can obtain enough equipment for all of them ◆ Telegraph, 2023-10-13: If China attempts a blockade of Taiwan, Taiwanese forces and their American allies will have to break the blockade – or risk losing the island democracy to mainland...It’s worth noting the United States hasn’t directly intervened in the Chinese blockade of a Philippine outpost ◆ Express (UK), 2023-10-13: A China-Taiwan war could break out unless the war in Israel is put to an end ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-10-12: Taiwan is closely watching the Hamas-Israel war for lessons as it faces intimidation from China ◆ AP, Reuters, 2023-10-10: Taiwan seeks 'peaceful coexistence' with China, president says, Differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved peacefully, and maintaining the status quo is "critical" to ensuring peace ◆ BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-10-5: Were Taipei truly serious about deterring and defeating a PLA attack, it would be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defense ◆ Politico.eu, 2023-10-5: Taiwan shivers over Ukraine funding freeze
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Report to Congress on Taiwan
Defense Military Issues |
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Advantages | including geography and climate. |
Challenges |
(1)
the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a
range of military campaigns against Taiwan. (2) Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. At a societal level, it is not clear what costs — in terms of economic security, safety and se |