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        intro. of Taiwan

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 News brief   ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence  ◆ USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia  ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"  ◆ War On The Rocks, 2023-1-20:  Training, Not Arms Sales, Should Be the New Priority ◆  WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. ◆ Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. ◆ TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control. ◆Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is.  ◆The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island. ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game ◆ Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command ◆ The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion ◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people  ◆ Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict. ◆ Reuters, 2022-12-28: China's government criticised Taiwan on Wednesday for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year starting in 2024  ◆ Insider, 2022-12-29: Easton: It would be very difficult and dangerous for the PLA to try to move on Taiwan proper without first suppressing Kinmen, the Penghus, and the Matsu islands (with a substantial number of missiles ) ◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still   ◆  full text

　

New York Times, 2023-1-5: The Nuclear waste dump on Lanyu island created a generation of indigenous activists. "The government deceived us" the pastor said , "They didn't care that the nuclear waste would kill us, that the Tao people would go extinct". Despite the government's repeated promises to relocate the site, the dump remains. Now, some residents run inns and restaurants on Lanyu. the focus these days is on tourism


 ◆ Politico, 2022-12-27:  The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won't even consider invading Taiwan. Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late ◆  France 24, 2022-12-26: Seventy-one warplanes deployed by China in war drills - the largest reported incursion to date ◆ Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent.  if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆  1945, 2022-12-12:  the likelihood of a Chinese move to take Taiwan by force is as close to inevitable as it gets. The reason: in China's thinking that the United States has embarked on a course to prevent Taiwan from ever reunifying with China ◆ National Interest, 2022-12-11: China Isn’t Ready to Invade Taiwan - two major challenges: unfinished military modernization and high casualty potential  ◆   Economist,2022-11-29:  many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China  ◆ DW (Germany), 2022-11-26: China said the midterm election result shows that "mainstream public opinion in the island is for peace, stability and a good life ◆ Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection  ◆  full text

　

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China
WSJ, 2022-12-27 a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP,  2022-12-27 The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however,  only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27  Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27 It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant   washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28 The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
 mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27 "a deplorable decision" made under US pressure  /   the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml    12-27

　

◆ Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023?  Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas ◆   Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely   ◆ Fortune, 2022-11-19:  U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry ◆ CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14:  For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan ...The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China's goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system   ◆  full text

　

★  Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?
CNN, 2022-12-9 Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’  /  TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US.  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html 
Global Times, 2022-12-9 Alarm is sounded after TSMC becomes ‘USSMC’  / it will be a key event marking a dark turn in the development history of the global semiconductor industry...Political pressure from Washington and subsidies and inducements are throughout the construction of TSMC’s plant in the US.  the DPP authorities are even more shameful. Not only do they have no resistance to US’ behavior of hollowing out Taiwan, but they act proactively, with their words and actions full of servility to Washington.    globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1281494.shtml
Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly.    finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Financial Times, 2022-12-12  TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that  TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes  ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9
Reuters, 2022-12-6 Taiwan seeks to reassure on TSMC commitment to island despite U.S. investment   msn.com/en-us/money/markets/taiwan-seeks-to-reassure-on-tsmc-commitment-to-island-despite-u-s-investment/ar-AA14ZR39
New York Times, 2022-12-6 In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology  nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html
TIME, 2022-10-5 Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation.  time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/
New York Times, 2022-9-9 Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times, 2022-8-29 Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it.  Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
 National Interest, 2022-5-15 Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China
VOA News, 2021-5-10 Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.  
Fox News, 2022-8-26  Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue
New York Times, 2022-1-25 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia.  Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States.  nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
 CBS News, 2022-9-25 Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

 
Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips /
◆  BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021
Taiwan S. Korea China Other
65% 18% 5% 12%

news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html
　
　

　

◆Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis  is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war ◆  NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. ◆ SCMP, 2022-11-10: General Mark Milley vows military support for Taiwan ◆ Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition ◆  DW (Germany), 2022-11-8: Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline on Taiwan "reunification" ◆ Washington Times, 2022-11-8:  It would take at least a decade to design and build new types of ships and aircraft to counter China's threats... US Forces in the Indo-Pacific   may not be able to defend Taiwan successfully today ◆ National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution  between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan  ◆  USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade  ◆ Times of India, Next Shark, Yahoo, 2022-10-29:  Vladimir Putin declares Taiwan is 'inherent part' of China, blames 'granny' Nancy Pelosi for provoking the Taiwan-China conflict ( is expected to have long-standing impacts)  ◆ US News, 2022-10-27:  Russia's Sechin Says U.S. attempts to create its own complex microchip industry showed that "Taiwan's return to its native harbour" was "on schedule"  ◆ SCMP, 2022-11-3: China has no time frame for Taiwan reunification, even if US says so ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28: U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan  ◆ SCMP, 2022-10-30: Tsai administration accused of stalling decision due to plan's unpopularity with young voters; Better training needed if Taiwan extends mandatory military service, experts say ◆  Voice of America, 2022-10-22:  Analysts say even though Beijing doesn't want to go to war to reunify the two sides, it may feel forced to do so if the current trend of U.S.-Taiwan relations continues  ◆ BBC, 2022-10-18: China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, Blinken says, Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable ◆ New York Times, 2022-10-20:  The longer, written version of Xi's speech also stated that China has strengthened its “strategic initiative for China’s complete reunification,” suggesting greater urgency for its future plans   ◆  full text

　

  "Taiwan's midterms"

♣ CNN, 2022-11-27: Taiwan's President billed midterms as all about China. The pro-independence DPP's losses come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – as a way to send a message against Beijing's rising bellicosity toward the island.   edition.cnn.com/2022/11/27/asia/taiwan-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
 ♣ Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.   Taiwan democracy
　

♣ DPP-friendly mass media FTV (民視, 2022-11-28, 2022-11-27; ftvnews.com.tw/video/detail/h0489vFQzf4,  youtube.com/watch?v=2Nn4iEsCHGA, etc ) analyzed that one main factor causing DPP drubbed in local vote is war fears growing, which is why " Taiwan president strategy 'resist China and defend Taiwan' backfires" (Reuters, 2022-11-27).
　

media

comments
Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28 Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.  wsj.com/articles/taiwan-ruling-partys-election-drubbing-could-ease-tensions-with-china-11669645587?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Independent (UK), 2022-11-27 Tsai's DPP campaigned on the political anger against China's stance towards Taiwan, the KMT focussed more on the self-ruled island’s democracy and freedom; Its campaign also pointed to whether the government favoured a local vaccine over imported ones.   msn.com/en-gb/news/world/taiwan-election-president-tsai-ing-wen-resigns-as-ruling-party-chair-after-disastrous-results/ar-AA14BJm0
Global Times (China),
2022-11-28		 A loud "No" to DPP authorities' policies on a wide range of topics related to people's livelihoods including the chaotic COVID-19 response and the failure to rein in rising prices, and also demonstrated that Tsai Ing-wen''s "China threat bet" has backfired.  Such results proved the mainstream public opinion on the island was for peace.  Besides, failures in handling frequent scandals violating "values" it boasted about,  corruption, black gold politics and nepotism severely violated what the DPP had pledged to the people,  in many cases DPP sacrificed the interests of ordinary people and local companies such as relaxing a ban on food imports from Japan's sites of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and the US pork with ractopamine, DPP appeared to be incapable of handling the prices and livelihoods crises, and have also mulled lengthening the mandatory military service, a very unpopular idea among the youth.    globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280569.shtml
WSWS.org, 2022-12-1 Taiwan currently has the second-highest CovID-19 deaths per million.  While economic and social issues were major factors in the election, the result also reflects real fears about Taiwan being transformed into a US pawn for a war with China  wsws.org/no/articles/2022/12/01/bqmc-d01.html

　

◆ Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue ◆ Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing ◆ The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur ◆ CNBC, 2022-10-18: Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force ◆ New York Times, 2022-10-17: China's leader warns of “perilous, stormy seas" ahead ◆ USNI news, 2022-10-18:  China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027  ◆ NPR, 2022-10-18: there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic unification ◆ Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... “Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake  ◆  full text 

　

　

　


:pic.: No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on ecosia of Germany, 2023-1-22, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-17, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-21, 2022-6-12, 2022-5-14, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2021-10-21, 2021-9-21,  2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 10-25-2020, 8-9-2020; No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on ecosia of Germany, at 2022-12-13, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-4, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-22   

　

　

pic. : No.1  "introduction to Taiwan" on Bing at 2023-1-22, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-17, 2022-6-24, 2022-5-14,  2022-4-30, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-21, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 01-01-2021, 12-6-2020, 11-29-2020, 11-11-2020, 10-25-2020, 8-5-2020, 8-2-2020, 7-6-2020, 6-21-2020, 6-11-2020, 6-5-2020, 5-21-2020, 5-12-2020, 5-8-2020, 4-20-2020, 4-10-2020, 3-20-2020, 2-24-2020,1-27-2020, 1-15-2020, 12-25-2019, 12-16-2019,11-6-2019, 10-6-2019, 9-17-2019, 8-3-2019,  7-29-2019, 6-27-2019,  4-29-2019; This websites group was ranked No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on Bing, 2022-10-4, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-22, 2021-12-4 No.3 at 2022-10-23, 2022-9-5;
No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Lycos, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1

　

　

　

pic. : This websites group was ranked No.1 by keyword "introduction to Taiwan"
on Yandex of Russia (largest engine in Russia) at 2022-9-5, 2022-8-21,  2022-8-8, 2022-7-31, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-24, 2022-6-15, 2022-6-12, 2022-5-26, 2022-5-14, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-14, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-21; No.2 at 2022-4-9, 2022-2-25; among top ranks at 2022-12-12; No.3 "introduction of Taiwan" at 2022-12-17

　

　

　

　

★ Chinese Communist Party Congress  

◆ CNBC, 2022-10-18 Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force
◆ NY Times, 2022-10-16 China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — ‘strategic patience'
◆ LA Times, 2022-10-16 Chinese Communist Party Congress affords another step for Xi Jinping's consolidation of power

 ◆  full text 

　

◆ CBS News,2022-10-9: while much of the world thought an invasion might be imminent, polls showed that a majority of Taiwanese think that is unlikely any time soon, if ever..."This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade" ◆  NY Times, 2022-10-5:  the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China ◆ Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal". ◆ Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: Biden pokes at China again over Taiwan. At what cost to US national interests?  if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that ◆ CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says◆ NY Times,2022-9-10: Drones -the latest front in China's mounting campaign of intimidation and psychological warfare  ◆ NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆ Moscow Times (Russia), 2022-8-2: Russia Condemns Potential Pelosi Visit to Taiwan as ‘Provocation’ and accuses Washington of choosing "the path of confrontation." ◆ SCMP, 2022-8-21: PLA adopts nuclear deterrence to stop foreign intervention on Taiwan: analysts ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed ◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan    ◆ full text

　

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan ★
♣ Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan   politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
 ♣ The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html		 ♣ VICE, 2022-9-28:  no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA  vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

　

★  Biden :  "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"

CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...  Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html  
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous",  this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
The Guardian (UK), 2022-9-21 the president's remarks are provocative to Beijing without providing security to Taiwan or the US,  Biden is conveying anxiety rather than confidence  ... theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/21/biden-taiwan-comments-china-war-independence
DW (Germany), 2022-9-19 scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .   lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
 France 24 (France), 2022-9-19  most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.。Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approach”msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19 Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence"  express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19 Expert Bonnie Glaser: “China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans”, Prof. Lev Nachman: “The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55
Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23 At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that  chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html
Modern Diplomacy.eu, 2022-2-25 Under the Budapest Memorandum, the US and UK promised to ensure Ukraine's security, geographical integrity and sovereignty, but, the world has seen that both the US and UK have not fulfilled their promise.  moderndiplomacy.eu/2022/02/25/ukraine-is-betrayed-by-the-us-and-uk/
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet  /  The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical  washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy  ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill.  China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said.   globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml 
The Conversation  (Australia),
2022-9-20		 so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict.    news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html

　

◆ Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"  ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine  ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-28: The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait. China may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States. ◆  CNN,2022-7-29: Pelosi's possible visit potentially triggers the worst cross-strait crisis in decades ... the escalating tension barely made headline news in Taiwan this week. Taiwan has made few comments about the situation.  ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait  ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan — possibly by force — is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan ◆ le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan ◆ DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion ◆  Asia Nikkei (Japan), 2022-7-20:  Taiwan's ex-defense chief calls for sweeping military reforms  ◆ full text

　


China Taiwan issue in Le Monde diplomatic
　

pic. : Le Monde diplomatique
of France

depictes Taiwan-China issue
as :

 Taiwan, a trembling sweating rat ,
 turning its back on an
approaching huge cat (China),
lifting high the banner "$O$" . 



  artwork by Selcuk Demirel,  Mai '16
https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2016/05/BEAULANDE/55450

　

　

　

　

  Intro. to Taiwan

　

"We call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan", president Tsai has told BBC UK at Jan. 15, 2020, but later BBC changed it to "the Republic of China (Taiwan)".  This self-governing island country lies roughly 100 miles off the coast of southeastern China ( Taiwan's small island, Kinmens,  just one mile off China ) .  Taiwan's current population around 24 million is roughly the same as Australia's, close to New York's, but the area of Australia is 207 times larger than Taiwan's, that of NY is about 4 times Taiwan's.  Taipei's housing price is about triple Tokyo's or Singapore's.  Taiwan's climate is subtropical.
　

　 　 　 means you should eat & drink nothing for 29.68 years
 to buy a house
in Taipei
　 area population data , 2023 Ratio of house price to income
UK 7 Taiwan 3 Taiwan Taipei (Taiwan) 29.68
Japan 10 Taiwan 5 Taiwan Tokyo (Japan) 12.65
Australia 207 Taiwan same Singapore 15.73

  

Taiwan's travel and tourism competitiveness is ranked No.10 among Asian nations (WEF,  9-4-2019), ranked about No.13 in Asia & Pacific (Statista, 2-4-2021) , ranked n/a in 2022 (WEF) . Taiwan's higher education is ranked about No.7~9 in the region (QS  UK, Times, Nature Index, ARWU World 2019~2022) ,  Taipei ranks No.53 in EIU's Global Livability Index Ranking 2022.  Taiwan's justice ministry was insufficiently independent and was questioned the impartiality of judges and prosecutors involved in high profile, politically sensitive cases (USA Country Reports on Human Rights practices , 2018, 2019, 2021 ; http://intlhumanrights.com/PoliticalPersecutionsTaiwanENG.htm  ) . CTN opinion (4-12-2019): Taiwan's three presidents should be ashamed of Taiwan's judiciary.  Taiwan's physicians density is almost the last in Asia.  Taiwan was still "in its early days" of building soft power  (abc news Australia, 9-28-2022) .Taiwan's soft power has never entered top 30 before CovID-19, losing Asia-Pacific's Japan, Australia,  NZ, China, Singapore, Korea, UAE, India, Thailand, Qatar in recent years (USC, Portland , Monocle's Soft Power Survey, 2010 ~ 2020)

　

To contrast China's 'authoritarian', Westerners gave too many fulsome compliments to Taiwan's democracy, however, Taiwan's democracy  is at surface level.  USA Country Reports on Human Rights practices (2022-4-12, 2021-3-30):  There were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties in Presidential election in 2020.  Besides, Taiwan lacks good separation & balance of powers between the ruling party and the opposition, the executive and the legislative, the government and the media.  New York Post (4-25-2020) comments that Taiwan deals with CovID-19 with "a lot more authoritarian".  Global Times, 2022-8-11: under the guise of "democracy", the DPP authorities are practicing "green terror".  Taiwan's ruling party, DPP's official website : human rights abuses occur anywhere and anytime in Taiwan (https://www.gotv.ctitv.com.tw/2020/12/1648383.htm). 

　

Economist at 2022-11-29 reported many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after president Tsai's refusal to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China during a severe coronavirus outbreak.   Guardian, 2021-7-12: Taiwan has rejected China's offers as fake altruism. ... putting politics above its people The priority of the CovID vaccination is to draw votes (electoral interest) instead of saving human lives, which is "cold-blood", "losing their souls " (ref. to China Times, 2021-9-7, United Daily, 2021-9-12, Guardian, 2021-8-14). 

　

 Taiwan's press freedom is ranked No.43 in 2020 and 2021.  At end of 2020, Taiwan shuts Pro-China TV channel first ever since Taiwan's liberation, which could have a "chilling effect, strongly impacting press freedom".   The Liberty Times, 1-12-2020, editorial: The administration's rottenness smells already.... It has shown a retrogressive trend in recent years, the freedom of speech, publication, assembly etc were persecuted by excuses such as national security (NHU paper, Jun. '20). Taiwan not only harm its democracy for national security, but also harm its national security for democracy. 

　

Now China keeps inching closer to Taiwan, Economist (2021-5-1) describes Taiwan as "The most dangerous place on Earth", western experts (e.g., Foreign Policy, 4-5-2021, 10-28-2020, Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 ) advise Taiwan to make urgent defense reforms such as lengthening the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems, but, Taiwanese politicians are afraid to discuss this issue with the public because of electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders don't want to shift to a policy which could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling party (DPP), according to Foreign Policy (10-19-2020).  N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: 'A Looming Threat'  ──  but "politicians have electoral considerations".   Most younger generation don't want to be soldiers (China Times, 2022-9-28: 81.5% oppose one-year compulsory military service ).  Financial Times (UK), 2021-9-15 : Washington keeps scolding Taipei over its supposed lack of preparation against an ever mightier Beijing.  New York Times criticized Taiwan's nearly two million reservists "exist in name only" - Eventually, in Dec. 2022, Taiwan extends its mandatory military service - still shorter than that of Singapore, Israel, S. Korea... and president Tsia denied the decision was made under US pressure - it's a lie.    

　

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has identified that Taiwan as part of its territory and its most important core interest, since the Kuomintang (Nationalists or KMT) government retreated to the island in 1949 following defeat in the Chinese civil war.  Beijing regards reunification of the mainland and Taiwan is priceless  and a   "sacred mission” ,  'do or die' prestige issue,  and has traditionally used a double strategy  of “carrot and stick”  towards Taiwan, on one hand, it has vowed to reunite this "breakaway province" by force if necessary, and has been ramping up military, diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan since president Tsai I.W. (2016 ~) refused to recognise the "1992 consensus" a 'pseudo'-agreement made by Taiwan's KMT party and the Chinese Communist Party, that proclaimed "the existence of only one China ”, but “ with different interpretations ” (being free to decide which side was legitimate.).  In early 2019,  CCP Xi openly equates One Country Two Systems with the 1992 Consensus to eliminate other interpretations.   Under China's political development and strengthening its trade ties to our allies, Taiwan is diplomatically isolated, has only 14 formal diplomatic relation allies till Jan., 2023, most of them are little, unknown countries. 

　

On the other hand, China took the "carrots" strategy ─ "Allowance of economic benefits to Taiwan"("讓利" ) so that Taiwanese people may have higher tendency toward unification with China ―― about 52% Taiwanese want closer economic ties with the mainland China.  Brookings, 1-22-2021: Only 23% Taiwanese thought that democracy was more important than economic development.  Washington Post, 2017-1-2:  83 percent chose bread ( economic ties with China) over romance (political independence).  Taiwanese understood this interdependence is unavoidable, but over-dependence is risky. New York Times, 2022-6-22:  To Pressure Taiwan, China Flexes Economic Muscle...  L.A. Times, 2022-7-29: (Taiwan) The country's economy relies on China, its largest trading partner .  Washington Post, 2022-10-21:  42 percent of Taiwan's exports — and 60 percent of its chip exports — go to China.  But after China's largest ever drills around Taiwan to respond Pelosi's visit, New York Times (2022-8-7) comments the policy carrots that China has used to entice Taiwan toward unification may carry even less weight.

　

President Tsai (ruling party DPP) in her inauguration speech at 5-20-2020 reiterated that Taiwan calls for stability in China relations but would reject being ruled by China in the same way Hong Kong is.  Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports: In a major speech in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.  Then, in Mar., the PLA warplane crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" that has served as a "de facto border" (Newsweek, 8-11-2020) or "the de facto cease-fire line" ( Japan's asia nikkei review, 8-13-2020) for the first time since the end of Chinese civil war in 1949 (Newsweek, 8-12-2020). However, Taiwan's government was tight-lipped about this ultimatum, a everyone's life-and-death issue,  according to National Interest (6-16-2020): more than 60.3 percent of the respondents opposed Taiwan's independence if it is followed by China's military invasion...

　

Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).   The United States,  Taiwan's most important protector,  “acknowledges” there is one China and Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially “recognized” Taiwan as part of China.  The US Congress passed a law ("Taiwan Relations Act") to commit the US to defend Taiwan's sovereignty, and provide necessary 'defensive' services.   After Biden's 4th remark about defending Taiwan in Sept. 2022, it looks like the US has moved from strategic ambiguity to deterrence...  But CNN (2022-9-20) comments Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis.  In Dec. 2022,  the US Senate passed legislation authorizing $10 billion in security aid for Taiwan.

　

Till end of 2022, seeing US' actions on the Taiwan run counter to its clear political promise, the Chinese increasingly and really believe that the U.S. government is “salami slicing” and “hollowing out” the One China policy (US also blames China's salami-slicing behaviors against Taiwan ), as Beijing's ambitions grow and relations between the U.S. and China deteriorate.  Anyway, China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan - maybe not sending their troops.

　

After Vietnam war, Afghanistan withdrawal, and Ukraine-Russia war, Taiwan learns it must defend itself.  But Taiwan's defense budget remains scandalously low.  New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (suited to win against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.   Foreign Policy (8-20-2020) comments Taiwan just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue (Politico, 3-15-2021:Trump indicated (in 2019) America might not come to Taipei's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion.  ).  Foreign Affairs, 2022-9-14: (US) military's most promising capabilities to counter China will not be ready until the 2030s...This creates a window of vulnerability for Taiwan, most likely between 2024 and 2027.  

　

Taiwan also relies upon its computer chips as "silicon shield" to protect Taiwan, perhaps from a highly optimistic viewpoint.   Taiwan is the source of 90+ % of the most advanced computer chips relying upon importation of key components and advanced technology from the US  and Japan.  WSJ, 2021-6-19: The world relies on one chip maker in Taiwan, leaving everyone vulnerable.  That's one of the reasons we're trying to produce semiconductors here in the United States, Blinken told CBS (2022-9-25), but this will take years to accomplish at the cost of trillions of dollars (National Interest, 2021-9-11) .  Japan's日本経済新聞 (Nikkei news, Nihon keizai shinbun ) comments in May 2020 that the US asking TSMC-Taiwan to build a factory in Arizona as a "Pressure Point" in tech. fight with China (N.Y. Times, 5-19-2020)  may weaken Taiwan's security .  Some analysts argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war (NY Times, 2022-8-29).

○

Wikipedia (Oct., 2022): Taiwan is the 8th largest economy in Asia (Forbes, 2022-5-15: Taiwan is home to the world's 22nd largest economy), although its high-tech sector is falling behind for lacking of key tech. and its low pay to attract university-educated talent.   Global Wealth Report (Credit Suisse, Sept., 2022) shows Taiwanese' "Median wealth per adult", USD 113,940, is higher than Americans' USD93,270, but nation's share (Credit Suisse, Oct., 2018) world wealth (1.3%) is less than USA(31%), Japan(7.5%), China(16.4%) and Korea(2.2%).

★

★ 

　

◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-7: Chinese diplomat says 'reunification' with Taiwan near ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-3:  these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆ N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat /  ...Taiwan politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular ◆ New York Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan's defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help.  ◆ AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price ...China is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe" bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq.

　

★ Defending Taiwan by Taiwanese ??
some human factors ~
President Tsai I. W. youngsters the public
♣ VICE, 2022-9-28: president's prescriptions have been piecemeal, and there is no national plan to overhaul the military. (developing asymmetric warfare capabilities as US experts advise)

♣ Roll Call, 2022-9-28: ...overhaul its military reservist program — our general public, especially young parents, those people from 40 to 50 and their children, will fight against that policy... “It's hard for the ruling party to do it !" Younger voters are a critical base of support for president Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party.
　

♣ New York Times, 2022-6-19: politicians have electoral considerations ( military conscription reform)

 ♣ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6:  The policy of lengthening mandatory military service won't be decided until end of 2022 , obviously the admin. is with an eye to presidential election. udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2

 ♣ Roll Call, 2022-9-28: Most people do not want to join the military... The March opinion poll : lower levels of support (56 percent) among the 20-24 age group for lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year.

　

♣ China Times (Taiwan), 2022-9-28: 81.5% of Taiwanese youth oppose lengthening Taiwan's mandatory military service to one year.   World media wrongly report Taiwanese people are willing to be on the battlefield.   chinatimes.com/opinion/20220927005188-262101?chdtv


PS: By law, all able-bodied men in South Korea must serve 18-21 months in the military under a conscription system; In Israel - men 32 months and women 24 months, minimum.
♣ axios,2022-9-27:  ...the common belief in Taiwan that if China were to invade, Taiwan would have no choice but to surrender immediately.

 ♣ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...

　

♣ Global Times, 2022-10-10: a poll shows that only 41.4 percent gave a definite "yes" to the determination to sacrifice themselves to defend the island, according to Taiwan-based media globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276853.shtml
　

♣ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-20: It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps

　

♣  United Daily (Taiwan, 聯合報), 2022-10-10: The great majority of polls show Taiwanese are not willing to fight for "Taiwan independence".  udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2
　

♣ Brookings, 2021-1-22: Only 23% thought that democracy was more important than economic development.  16% believed that protecting political freedom was more important than reducing economic inequality.
 ◆  full text
  ☉ S. Korean presidential candidates have never tried to win the election by shortening mandatory military service (their service days is about 5 times of Taiwan's), but Taiwan's politicians do !   for instance, a ruling party's law-maker Tsai argues what's the reason to lengthen military service !? (see udn.com/news/story/11091/6665523?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2   2022-10-6 )
 ☉ United Daily,2022-10-10: The Defense chief told the US that the mandatory military service can be lengthen up to 2~3 years, but President Tsai decide it'll be just 1 year at present for electoral considerations.(and not to declare until end of election)    brief udn.com/news/story/121823/6674688?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub121823_pulldownmenu_v2  陳一新
榮譽教授

　

◆ Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30: Putin is winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much deadlier  ◆ New York Times, 2022-5-27: A 2018 congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low ◆ New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant. ◆ full text cyber-link

　

Contrast    Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and 2022 ★
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-5 the U.S. military had ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan to “remain on station” in the region but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait.，... during a crisis in 1996, when President Bill Clinton moved aircraft carriers closer to the strait.  (PS: and conducted large scale drills  zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/台灣海峽飛彈危機 ) nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-drills.html
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-4 ... failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago.
◆ United Daily (Taiwan) , 2022-8-5 The drill has been conducted under US tacit permission, which shakes the policy of peaceful resolution...  udn.com/news/story/11091/6515486?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
◆  USA Today, 2022-8-6 National Security Council:U.S. would postpone intercontinental ballistic missile test scheduled... reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception news.yahoo.com/china-halts-climate-military-ties-152347684.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
◆   Global Times (China), 2022-8-5 the US Navy's Ronald Reagan carrier strike group retreated hundreds of kilometers eastward overnight, after the PLA announced live-fire exercise zones east of the island。

　

★   Taiwan  vs.  US

Taiwan VS. US's "porcupine"  weapons

The US disagrees Taiwan's requests for big-ticket weapons


◆ Financial Times, 2022-8-19: Intensified military pressure from China has reinforced Taiwan's desire to acquire large weapons platforms such as warships and fighters...widens gulf on procurement policy between Taipei and its main arms supplier

ft.com/content/0d492ad7-9346-4c9e-b186-834c6fc75e85


◆ Economist, 2022-5-10:These flashier purchases are politically popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone” attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have increased every year
◆WEEK (UK), 2022-5-12: Taiwan plans to “throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”

◆ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-5-19 : Can the guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block the Russian main force in Ukraine?

 ◆ The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26 : Urban guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large number of civilian casualties。
◆ United Daily (Taiwan), 2022-10-6 : Taiwan military was forced to accept the concept of "asymmetric war", in last year $80 billions Harpoon Coastal Defense Missile systems were forcibly sent to Taiwan ... but missiles are not good for China's gray-zone war at present.  udn.com/news/story/11091/6665520?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
 ◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-8-20 : “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue

◆ Financial Times, 2022-5-17: Washington was right to push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion, but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.

　

　

◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: flashy F-16 sales do little to defend Taiwan from China's missile force. warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis-is-just-starting/

◆ Financial Times, 2022-8-19:Washington is trying to force Taipei to prioritise “asymmetric” weapons — systems that exploit an adversary’s weakness instead of trying to match its strengths.

◆ Business Insider, 2022-8-21: expensive equipment such as fighter jets, helicopters, and tanks to prepare against a possible Chinese invasion, defense experts say these would easily be destroyed by an attacker, according to the Journal's report. businessinsider.com/taiwan-learns-ukraine-porcupine-strategy-defend-against-china-2022-8

　

◆ New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
◆ Politico, 2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out assault from the mainland.
 ◆ Economist, 2022-5-10: expensive conventional equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines — are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile — a "porcupine" strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
◆ Politico, 2022-5-19: the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
◆ WSJ , 2022-5-8: F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
◆ National Interest, 2022-5-15: One important task has been to tailor the provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and Seahawk helicopters.
 ◆ Foreign Policy , 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
◆ Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance armed drones...

　

　

China's Missiles over Taiwan  in 2022-8-5  ★
◆  CNN, 2022-8-4 missiles flying over the island marked a significant escalation
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3 China's CCTV stated that one of the missiles flew over Taiwan, marking another escalation of Chinese pressure on the island and risking serious miscalculation.

　

★  China's "staging the largest-ever People's Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan" (Newsweek, 2022-8-5)     
WHY ?? 

NY Times, 2022-8-25 They were meant to intimidate Taiwan and the United States   nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/25/world/asia/china-taiwan-conflict-blockade.html
 NY Times, 2022-8-4 Stanford scholar: “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.” nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-exercises.html    
 Business Insider, 2022-8-5  "a show of force to respond to Pelosi's visit" and "to exhibit [China's] displeasure" and "presumably to deter the US or other countries from undertaking visits like this ..."  "readiness to respond to Taiwan provocations"    news.yahoo.com/chinas-missile-launches-military-drills-211102958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
 AFP (France), 2022-8-6 a former CIA Asia analyst:  main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo.，"The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker's visit."
American University Professor: Beijing's message was meant to signal that China can alter the power balance in the region if it chooses. "The Chinese seriously believe that the United States has not been respecting their interests on the Taiwan issue"   news.yahoo.com/us-china-relations-risk-long-215317757.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 The Times (UK), 2022-8-6

 Chinese jets menace Taiwan in an end to diplomacy

Global Times (Chn), 2022-8-5

 Some Taiwan-based media hyped that the mainland's economic punishment could antagonize the public...    "If the mainland opts for economic sanctions, it may terminate the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)"...  Taiwan had a trade surplus of more than $170 billion with the Chinese mainland in 2021.  globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272245.shtml

　

 China published a white paper titled
"The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era"  ★
GT, 2022-8-10 the wellbeing of the people in Taiwan hinges on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation... it will create huge opportunities for social and economic development in Taiwan and bring tangible benefits to the people of Taiwan。globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272637.shtml
Global Times, 2022-8-24 The latest white paper actually signals an invitation to the Taiwan compatriots to participate in the future institutional arrangements,...Ironically, the DPP does not allow Taiwan people to participate in the institutional arrangements after reunification   globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273805.shtml
NY Times, 2022-8-15  The 2000 paper said nine times that negotiations between Taiwan and China to determine that framework would be conducted on “equal footing,” or other similar language. But that pledge appeared only once in the new paper    nytimes.com/2022/08/15/world/asia/china-taiwan-us.html
 Reuters, 2022-8-10 A line in the 2000 white paper that said "anything can be negotiated" as long as Taiwan accepts that there is only one China and does not seek independence, is missing from the latest white paper.  reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-withdraws-promise-not-send-troops-taiwan-after-unification-2022-08-10/
Forbes, Reuters, 2022-8-10 ...in two previous white papers on Taiwan, in 1993 and 2000, that it "will not send troops or administrative personnel to be based in Taiwan" after achieving unification ... is missing from the latest white paper.
ABC news , Australia,
2022-8-11		 China says there are "profound historical and cultural ties" with Taiwan..."Its economy is highly complementary with that of the mainland."...Taiwanese citizens who would "enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region".   msn.com/en-au/news/australia/why-does-china-want-taiwan-when-its-already-so-big-and-rich-the-answer-is-about-more-than-land-and-money/ar-AA10z5KJ
 NBC, 2022-8-10 ... reiterated its desire for “peaceful reunification.” But it did not rule out the use of force as a “last resort taken under compelling circumstances,” without specifying what those circumstances might be   nbcnews.com/news/world/is-taiwan-worried-china-threat-invasion-pelosi-visit-rcna41964
United Daily (聯合報), 2022-8-11 這是更為強硬的表態，除了對內部十四億人有所交代，也對國際社會明確堅定表達北京看法，同時也想加大對台軟、硬兩手力度 udn.com/news/story/10930/6528208?from=udn_ch2cate6638sub10930_pulldownmenu_v2
China Daily,
2022-8-12		 The white paper received a warm response and wide support from Chinese people at home and abroad, and the DPP authorities' misinterpretation cannot deny that "one country, two systems" is a peaceful, democratic, good-faith and win-win solution   chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/12/WS62f58be5a310fd2b29e71b7a.html
full text:  https://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/32832/Document/1728489/1728489.htm

　

　

★   2022  Michelin stars comparisons among Asian countries

 Michelin cities

number of 3 stars

num. of 2 stars

number of 1 star

total num.
Tokyo (Japan) 12 41 150 203
Hong Kong 7 12 52 71
Kyoto (Japan) 6 19 83 108
Osaka (Japan) 3 11 82 96
Singapore 3 7 41 51
Macau 3 5 7 15
Seoul (Korea) 2 7 24 33
Shanghai (China) 2 8 37 47
Taipei (Taiwan) 1 6 24 31
TaiChung City (Taiwan) 0 1 4 5
Kaohsiung (Taiwan) 0 0 2 2
TaiNan City(Taiwan) 0 0 0 0
★  New York Times, 2022-8-18: Taiwanese cuisine — layered, distinct, multiethnic ...has been shaped by many cultural forces, including the island's Indigenous tribes,  long-established groups of Fujianese and Hakka people; Japanese ;  Chinese immigrants in 1949+...   nytimes.com/2022/08/16/dining/taiwanese-cuisine.html

　

Users/88695/Downloads/20220830_PR-MG_TTTK-2022.pdf
guide.michelin.com/th/en/article/news-and-views/michelin-guide-singapore-2022-new-starred-restaurants   2022-7-12
guide.michelin.com/en/article/news-and-views/michelin-guide-seoul-2022-eng
guide.michelin.com/hk/en/article/news-and-views/michelin-guide-hong-kong-macau-2022-unveiled-today-with-11-newly-starred-restaurants
guide.michelin.com/en/article/news-and-views/the-michelin-guide-kyoto-osaka-2022-is-unveiled-en
 michelin.com/en/press-releases/michelin-guide-2022-shanghai/
guide.michelin.com/en/article/news-and-views/michelin-guide-tokyo-2022-eng     2021-11-29

　

　

★  Taiwan's travel & tourism - 13th in Asia
　
STATISTA: Leading countries in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI)

   Published by Statista Research Department, Feb 4, 2021

statista.com/statistics/186639/best-ranked-countries-in-the-travel-and-tourism-competetiveness-index/

Asia Rank

country

score

world Rank
1 Japan 5.4 4
2 Australia 5.1 7
3 China 4.9 13
4 Korea Rep. 4.8 15
5 Hong Kong 4.8 16
6 Singapore 4.8 17
7 New Zealand 4.7 18
8 Malaysia 4.5 25
9 Thailand 4.5 29
10 UAE 4.4 33
11 India 4.4 34
12 Indonesia 4.3 36
13 Taiwan 4.3 37

　

　

★  WEF (World Economic Forum) , May 2022
world Travel and Tourism Development Index
weforum.org/reports/travel-and-tourism-development-index-2021/digest
world rank Asia's rank economies/countries score (global average : 4.0)
1 1 Japan 5.2
2 2 USA 5.2
7 3 Australia 5.0
9 4 Singapore 5.0
12 5 China 4.9
15 6 S. Korea 4.8
19 7 Hong Kong 4.6
25 8 UAE 4.5
27 9 New Zealand 4.5
32 10 Indonesia 4.4
33 11 Saudi Arabia 4.3
36 12 Thailand 4.3
38 13 Malaysia 4.3
43 14 Qatar 4.3
52 15 Vietnam 4.1
54 16 India 4.1
74 17 Sri Lanka 3.7
75 18 Philippines 3.7
84 19 Mongolia 3.6
n/a n/a Taiwan n/a
statista.com/statistics/186639/best-ranked-countries-in-the-travel-and-tourism-competetiveness-index/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20Japan%2C%20the%20United,a%20TTDI%20score%20of%205.1.

　

★  UNWTO  World Tourism Barometer
UNWTO Tourism Dashboard, updated 2022-9-25
Asia countries  -  tourism performance
　 Arrivals (million) Receipts (USD bn) Receipts per arrival (USD)
Macau 3.7 15.4 4169
Indonesia 1.6 0.5 334
Korea(ROK) 1.0 10.5 10814
Thai 0.4 4.8 11247
Australia 0.2 17.0 68990
Japan 0.2 4.7 19239
New Zealand 0.2 2.9 13855
Cambodia 0.2 0.2 937
Sri Lanka 0.2 0.5 2606
Philippines 0.2 0.6 3663
Vietnam 0.2 0.1 947
Nepal 0.1 0.1 801
Taiwan 0.1 0.7 5298
China 　 11.3 　
unwto.org/tourism-data/global-and-regional-tourism-performance

　

◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-4: Since the Chinese economy is 10 times as large as the Russian economy, effective sanctions would be virtually impossible to enforce. Taiwan's lack of preparedness is increasingly dangerous.  ◆  Economist, 2022-4-20: the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days; Taiwan can learn ...Fighting spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe ◆  Japan Times, 2022-4-19: U.S. 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan must end! US policy of ambiguity toward Taiwan is now fostering instability in the Indo-Pacific region, by encouraging China to underestimate U.S. resolve...  ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-4-18: Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut ◆ Fox News, 2022-4-15: Senator Sasse wrote: Congress plays a foundational role in the interpretation of the Taiwan Relations Act...Chinese spokesman: some in the U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to contain China. ◆ Daily Mail, 2022-4-14: Taiwan remains massively outgunned against China but the mountainous island would be a formidable challenge for any military to conquer ◆ Daily Mail (UK), 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile silos that could house nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil -  to deter America from intervening in conflict over Taiwan

　

◆ Fox News, 2022-4-4: "It's not if China moves into Taiwan, it's when" ◆ Wall street Journal, 2022-3-29: Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed to upgrade Taiwan's military ◆ New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the danger for Taiwan  ◆  TIME, 2022-3-18: most analysts say that the island would not be able to stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine's situation has sparked debate over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid  ◆ Politico, 2022-3-14: Taiwan's military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068 billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement ◆ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence. Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. ◆ Washington Post, 2022-3-4: Taiwan's leaders try to calm fears over Ukraine invasion, but citizens worry their island will be next ◆ Economist, 2022-2-26:  Parallels with Taiwan colour Asian views of the war in Ukraine - Some fear a Chinese invasion has become more likely  ◆  New York Times, 2022-2-23: With some seeing parallels to Ukraine, Taiwan steps up its defenses   ◆ for full text, pls. click cyber-link
　

US military would defend Taiwan ?  ★

◆ New York Times, 2022-5-23: Biden Says U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan if China Invaded, dispensing with the “strategic ambiguity” traditionally favored by American presidents ...The White House quickly tried to deny ..., Mr. Biden’s unscripted declaration put Japan in a complicated position. 。nytimes.com/2022/05/23/world/asia/biden-taiwan-defense.html

◆ Guardian, 2022-5-23: Biden's Taiwan vow creates confusion not clarity – and raises China tensions  theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/23/biden-taiwan-china-strategic-ambiguity-us-foreign-policy
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-5-23: “We agree with the One China policy and all the attendant agreements we made. But the idea that it can be taken by force, just taken by force, would just not be appropriate,” Mr. Biden said.。wsj.com/articles/biden-says-u-s-would-intervene-militarily-if-china-invaded-taiwan-11653286228
◆ New York Post, 2022-5-23:White House walks back Biden Taiwan defense claim for third time in 9 months  nypost.com/2022/05/23/white-house-walks-back-biden-taiwan-defense-claim-again/

◆ Politico, 2022-5-23:The president's “strategic ambiguity” backtrack may hasten Taiwan Strait conflict, observers say
◆ Economist, 2022-5-23: the gap between presidential statements and official policy is giving rise to a new form of ambiguity—strategic perhaps; or maybe simply incoherent 

economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/05/23/what-is-americas-policy-of-strategic-ambiguity-over-taiwan

◆ BBC, 2022-5-23:Biden vows to defend Taiwan in apparent US policy shift
◆ TIME, 2022-5-23:president Biden's Vow To Defend Taiwan Is Bold but Incredibly Risky
◆ Global Times, 2022-5-23: Biden's remarks on ‘intervening militarily’ in Taiwan question not gaffe but signals hollowing out one-China policy
◆ New York Times, 2022-5-24:  Asked if he would send in troops if China attacked Taiwan, Biden said, “The policy has not changed at all.”
　

　

　


What Should The US Do If China Invades Taiwan ?   TIPP Poll  2022-3-2 ~ 3-4, 1318 adults, online survey ★
　 come to defense of Taiwan
directly via MILITARY action		 economic sanctions combination of military action
 and economic sanctions		 allow China to take Taiwan not sure
overall 14% 27% 23% 6% 29%
Democrats 15 33 22 6 24
Republicans 16 27 27 n/a 25
Independents 11 22 24 9 34
Conservatives 17 27 28 6 21
Moderates 12 26 19 6 36
Liberals 15% 32% 25% 5% 22%
19fortyfive.com/2022/04/a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-what-response-would-americans-support/     TIPP Insights
　

　

 Pelosi visiting Taiwan       a CRISIS in Taiwan Strait ★

 　
NY Times, 2022-7-28 Nancy Pelosi's Trip to Taiwan Is Too Dangerous! The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait  nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/china-us-taiwan-pelosi.html 
NY Times, 2022-7-31 Mr. Xi may feel pressure to show a tough stance — possibly including military action...ahead of an important Chinese Communist Party Congress this fall.    The Biden administration has grown increasingly worried that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, might try to move, perhaps with force, against Taiwan within the next year and a half.   nytimes.com/2022/07/31/world/asia/pelosi-taiwan-china.html
 Global Times (China), 2022-7-28  China's defense ministry issues fresh, rare warning: The US should not underestimate the crisis and possible disastrous results it will bring to the Taiwan Straits if Pelosi ultimately makes the trip... if the US does not pull back but keeps challenging the guardrail, the price will be beyond US capabilities to pay"...  The rare expressions "yanzhen yidai" (嚴陣以待),  PLA "will not sit idly by" (不會坐視) were used (in Korea war and Vietnam war).“  -  China will not sit idly by if US troops crossed the 38th parallel. globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271693.shtml
中囯 Global Times, 2022-7-28 Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this," Xi said  via telephone,...  it is certain that if Pelosi insists on her provocative plan of visiting Taiwan, she will face serious and unbearable consequences.    globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271696.shtml
 TIME, 2022-7-28  there's a good chance that Beijing could sanction Pelosi personally...time.com/6201447/joe-biden-xi-jinping-taiwan-china/
 NPR, 2022-7-28 President Biden looks to ease tensions with Xi over Taiwan
 npr.org/2022/07/28/1114314905/biden-and-chinas-xi-discuss-tensions-over-taiwan
 Reuters(UK),  2022-7-29 "So far, there are few indications in Chinese official statements, nor online or domestic media, which would suggest that China is considering more serious military action at this time, although that could change"  news.yahoo.com/analysis-despite-xis-fire-call-003612894.html


◆  CNN, 2022-2-3: China's leaders may be watching Ukraine with an eye on Taiwan ◆ USA Today, Yahoo, 2022-2-10, "Chinese Taipei" , the label implies a link to China... younger people have said they feel increasingly distant culturally from the other side. ◆ Brookings, 2022-2-7: why is unification so unpopular in Taiwan? It's the PRC political system; A majority of our respondents — 56% — said Taiwanese culture was similar to Chinese culture.  72% rated China's government as at least somewhat unfriendly. ◆ Washington Post, 2022-1-24: Defending Taiwan is a worthy goal. But are we ready for heavy casualties? it would be a grave mistake for the United States to promise to defend Taiwan without preparing its public — and its soldiers — for the tough fight they could face ◆ New York post, 2022-1-21: Rep. Michael McCaul predicts Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Winter Olympics ◆ New York times, 2022-1-19: China's Growing Menace Hardens Island's Identity  ◆ France24, NY Post, Daily Mail(UK), 2021-12-30: China warns US will pay 'unbearable price' for backing Taiwan ◆ Reuters, 2021-12-20: Chinese spies have penetrated Taiwan's military, Even the security detail of President Tsai Ing-wen has been compromised ◆ Hill, 2021-12-20: China could obliterate Taiwan. It could seize Taiwan's tiny islands ... impose an embargo... And it could attempt regime change... ◆ NY Times, 2021-12-10: As China has built up its military presence, the U.S. has sought to widen its alliances in the region. A major potential flash point is Taiwan ◆ Times (UK), 2021-12-10: The US won’t fight to save Taiwan or Ukraine ◆  Financial Times (UK), 2021-12-5: US defence chief warns of China ‘rehearsals’ for attack on Taiwan; Lloyd Austin cites concern over scale and frequency of Beijing’s military sorties ◆  Reuters, 2021-12-3: Blinken says any move by China to invade Taiwan would have 'terrible consequences ◆ NY Times, 2021-11-29:  China is developing advanced weapons, leading U.S. officials to push for the first nuclear talks  ◆ The Hill, 2021-11-22:  as things currently stand, the U.S. can't deter Beijing ◆ NY Times, 2021-11-15: Biden and Xi meet amid tensions in an effort to keep “communication lines open” and avoid military action — American officials remain concerned that the chances of avoiding conflict may be diminishing. ◆  CBS, 2021-11-16:  Biden's virtual summit with China's Xi focuses on "managing strategic risks" like Taiwan...while there had been no major breakthroughs ◆ The Guardian, 2021-11-16: Biden-Xi virtual summit: leaders warn each other over future of Taiwan ...the US is increasingly nervous about the rapid development of Chinese conventional and nuclear military forces. ◆  WSJ, FoxNews, 2021-10-25: the island's military is riven with internal problems...Among the most pressing concerns are poor preparation and low morale among the roughly 80,000 Taiwanese who are conscripted each year and the nearly 2.2 million reservists. ◆ New York Times, 2021-10-9 : "starting a fire" : US and China enter dangerous territory over Taiwan... with potential to ignite military conflagration and reshape the regional order ◆ New York Times, 2021-10-15: Taiwan has a spotty record when it comes to fire safety... raise questions about whether the self-governing island,... had overlooked basic safety concerns in the rush to develop ◆  BBC, 2021-10-6 :China-Taiwan military tensions 'worst in 40 years' ◆ Guardian, 2021-10-5 :The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war. ◆ Reuters, 2021-10-5 : experts say the island could likely only hold out for a few days in the event of a Chinese attack unless the United States quickly came to its aid  ◆ New York Times, 2021-10-3 : Beijing sent a record number of planes near the island, ...a display of strength that underscored Chinese demands for unification ◆ Financial Times (UK), 2021-9-16 :Taiwan is failing to reorient its military towards an asymmetric strategy, US defence experts are growing exasperated over the Taiwan military’s reluctance to decisively act on their instructions. ◆ New York Times, 2021-9-13 : if China has any hope of winning a war across the Strait, its military would have to move fast, before the United States has time to respond... the Chinese economy would suffer more  ◆  Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2021-9-10: Will Xi move on Taiwan? History warns he might ◆  Reuters, 2021-9-1 :Taiwan says China can 'paralyse' its defences, threat worsening ◆ VOA, 2021-8-28 : Survey: Most Americans Support Defending Taiwan if China Invades◆ Financial Times, 2021-8-23: Anti-Beijing sentiment is growing but the government has done little to prepare the public for war...The majority of Taiwanese do not believe there will be conflict with China...Taiwan is avoiding ‘the underlying reality...the Taiwanese public has no appetite for militarising society or even discussing defence. ◆ WSJ, 2021-8-23: Will America Fight to Save Taiwan? Will the Taiwanese?  ◆ Politico, 2021-8-19:The fundamental challenge to the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is the growing tension between maintaining bilateral strategic stability with China and fighting China over Taiwan in a violent military conflict that has every potential to escalate into an all-out major power war  ◆ CNBC, 2021-8-19: President Joe Biden will likely remain ambiguous about whether it will defend Taiwan if Beijing uses force against the island ◆ FoxBusiness, 2021-8-19: China’s Xi Jinping is forecasting he will invade Taiwan, the US better listen  ◆ for full text, pls. click cyber-link

　

　

　

pic.: No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on Yahoo, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-22;  No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Yahoo, 2021-10-21,  2021-9-21, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 12-6-2020, 11-29-2020, 11-11-2020, 10-25-2020, 8-5-2020, 7-6-2020

　

　

pic. No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Google, 4-19-2020; No.5 at 2022-5-14, among top ranks in 1st page, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2021-6-15

　

　

　

　

  


 ★ World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2022
National Risk Perceptions
　
Economy Risk 1 Risk 2