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Taiwan Prepares for Trump's Return. |
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¡» Wall Street Journal, 2024-11-18 |
Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is
at stake, that it
can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in
the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war. Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP¡Xa lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and South Korea's 2.7%; In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness. |
¡» New York Times, 2024-11-10 | Taiwan's leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate more production in the United States. Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure from Washington. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to 10 percent of its gross domestic product (from about 2.6 percent). Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan's president. Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between Washington and Taipei. |
¡» Fox News, 2024-11-10 | Trump's public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny island democracy (Taiwan). there is hope among restraint groups that Trump will be focused on economic warfare with China ¡V rather than military. "We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ... the Taiwan issue is a powder keg ¡X it's exceedingly dangerous. " |
¡» New York Times, 2024-11-6 | Some diplomats in Asia expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade the self-governing island it claims as its territory; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of ¡§stealing¡¨ the microchip industry from the United States. ¡§With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty,¡¨ said Lev Nachman, a political scientist, ¡§And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with great risk for Taiwan.¡¨ |
¡» Washington Post, 2024-11-6 | Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could ¡§fan the flames of skepticism¡¨ about American intent at a time when the Taiwanese are ¡§directly threatened by CCP disinformation aimed at undermining U.S. credibility¡¨ |
¡» New York Times, 2024-11-6 news briefing |
Many
believe Trump's
foreign policy changes could have a greater impact than anything since
the start of the Cold War. Trump could decide to do the true ¡§America First¡¨ thing and withdraw completely, and basically say, "defending Taiwan is not in our interest.¡¨ But I doubt he's going to actually do that... |
¡» Business Insider, 2024-11-9 | In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it. |
¡» Bloomberg, 2024-11-5 | Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove harmful for Taiwan's semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some anticipate. |
¡» Reuters, 2024-11-6 | From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as close US presidential race ends. Trump might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's compromise on trade. |
¡@
Taiwan has a Trump problem |
|
¡» The Atlantics, 2024-10-25 | The shortcomings of Taiwan's military lend some validity to Trump's complaint that America's allies don't pay enough for their own defense and dump too much of the responsibility onto the United States¡Xa burden that a second Trump administration might not be committed to bear. |
¡» New York Times, 2024-10-26 | Mr. Trump criticized Taiwan, saying that ¡§they stole our chip business¡¨,¡§They want us to protect, ... They don't pay us money for the protection... The mob makes you pay money, right?¡¨America's heavy reliance on Taiwan's semiconductors has been a growing source of concern among U.S. officials, given China's ongoing threats to invade the self-governing island. |
¡» New
York Times, 2024-10-22: The frequency of the exercises suggests that China is stepping up its
intimidation efforts: The Chinese military has held two such large-scale
exercises since Mr.
Lai took office in May, the same number that it held over the
previous eight years.¡»
Wall
Street Journal, 2024-10-17:
China practiced a military blockade of Taiwan that is an all
too real future possibility.
Short of Taiwan's surrender, a blockade may be President Xi Jinping's
preferred option.
All underscores the urgent need to buttress deterrence against
a blockade or invasion. This means more civil defense training and
military spending in Taiwan, and
faster U.S. weapons delivery...The next U.S. President could easily face a Taiwan
crisis
¡»
Foreign
Affairs, 2024-10-16:
By almost universal agreement, the
Taiwan Strait has emerged as the most combustible flash
point in the world. Some have called on the
United States to make an unequivocal commitment to defend Taiwan.
Others have focused on enhancing Taiwan's
defenses. A much smaller number of analysts have
advocated cutting a deal with Beijing in which Washington ends its commitment to
defending Taiwan and the island is left to fend for itself.¡»
Council on
Foreign Relations, 2024-10-16:
Taiwan and other U.S. partners
will need to contend with an increasingly capable and aggressive China
and rising
isolationism and protectionism in the United States. Trump's
foreign policy pronouncements reflect sentiments held by many in the United
States.
¡@
China's response to a speech by President Lai Ching-te in Taiwan's national day |
|
¡»¡»New York Times, 2024-10-13 | China began holding military drills in areas surrounding Taiwan, a response to a speech by President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan, who said that China had ¡§no right to represent¡¨ the island and China and Taiwan were ¡§not subordinate to each other¡¨ . |
¡»¡»New York Times, 2024-10-16 | David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said PLA's activities are coming closer and closer to Taiwan shores. China's military drills were aimed at demonstrating its potential to choke Taiwan's access to food and fuel and block the skies and waters from which the United States and its allies would presumably approach in coming to the island's defense. The drills send the message that Taiwan remains so sensitive, so important and crucial for the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party¡¨, said Bonnie Glaser. |
¡»¡»le Monde, 2024-10-15 | Taiwan announced that it had detected a record 153 Chinese aircraft in one day near its territory. Making Taiwanese air force (fighters) modernization is an acute necessity. |
¡»¡»Bloomberg, 2024-10-15 | China sent a record 111 warplanes across a US-drawn boundary in the strait separating the sides. |
¡»¡»BBC, 2024-10-15 | the deployment and how close Chinese ships and aircraft were to Taiwan - as well as the fiery rhetoric - could be seen as very aggressive behaviour - a dramatic escalation. |
¡»¡»USA Today, 2024-10-14 | China launches "punishment drills" as 'Stern warning' |
¡»¡»BBC, 2024-10-14 | "Scared" and "desensitised" - here's how people on the streets of Taipei are talking about China's fresh wave of military exercises - which involved all parts of the military and simulates a full-scale attack. |
¡»¡»Reuters, 2024-10-12 | China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after denouncing president's speech |
¡@
¡»¡»
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
, 2024-10-8:
Should China invade, Americans support
arming Taipei but oppose direct military intervention.¡CA
narrow majority of Americans (51%) say the United States should encourage Taiwan
to maintain the status quo rather than move toward independence (36%) or
unification (4%).
¡@
If China were to invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United States: (% support) |
|||
¡@ | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
Using the US military to airlift food and medical supplies to Taiwan | 74 | 78 | ¡@ |
Imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on china | 72 | 75 | 76 |
Sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government | 59 | 62 | 65 |
SAending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China | 36 | 39 | 40 |
globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/taiwan-americans-favor-status-quo |
¡@
¡»
The American Conservative
, 2024-10-11:
Although there is widespread agreement in Taiwan that
avoiding war is desirable, there is no consensus on whether deterrence through
militarization is the best path forward. Conscription, currently set at a year,
is far from adequate in preparing Taiwan's youth for
the type of civic and military readiness found in nations like Israel or South
Korea. There is a prevalent assumption, that
America will unquestionably intervene in the event of an invasion. A
comprehensive strategy must also aim at fostering political unity, morale, and
military readiness in Taiwan
¡»
United
States Institute of Peace, 2024-10-9: Bloomberg Economics has estimated a war
with Taiwan would cost equivalent to 10% of global GDP ¡X China's
GDP would suffer a 16.7% blow compared to 40% for what would be a devastated
Taiwanese economy. With a far bigger economy than Russia's, China would have
more leverage than Moscow to resist U.S.-led efforts to isolate it after an
attack on Taiwan.
¡» Economist, 2024-10-3: China is using an "anaconda strategy" to squeeze Taiwan. "They are ready to blockade Taiwan at any time they want", Taiwan's navy commander warns. The number of PLA air incursions across the median line, has jumped more than five-fold, from January to August. The number of PLA ships operating around Taiwan has steadily risen, too, doubling...
¡@
China's "coercion short of violence" strategy |
|
¡» Associated Press, 2024-10-5 | Beijing could wage an economic and cyber war to force a surrender from Taiwan without direct use of military power, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said in the report. the U.S. government has yet to formulate a plan to respond to non-military tactics, giving Beijing flexibility in working to undermine Taiwan without triggering an outright response from Washington... |
¡» Foreign Policy, 2024-10-4 | Taiwan's greatest vulnerabilities extend beyond its military ¢w¢w financial, cybersecurity, and energy risks that China could exploit. |
¡» Foundation of Defense of Democracies, 2024-10-4 | the ¡§most likely¡¨ scenario: Sometime in the next decade, China will combine economic coercion, malicious cyber activity, and limited military moves short of kinetic attacks to break Taiwan's societal and/or economic resilience and force a major adjustment in its policy toward unification. fdd.org/analysis/2024/10/04/targeting-taiwan/ |
¡» Brookings, 2024-10-3 | China's leaders appear determined to show directional progress toward their goal of asserting control over Taiwan. Beijing is pursuing two parallel paths, significant military build-up and "coercion without violence" to compel the people of Taiwan to accept some form of union with the People's Republic of China as a least bad option for Taiwan's future. Harris said in 2022 that the United States would ¡§support Taiwan's self-defense, consistent with our longstanding policy.¡¨. Trump's disdain for alliances and security partnerships, though, negatively impacted Taiwan by calling into question the reliability of America's security commitments. The common thread among these utterances is Trump (team) suggestion that Taiwan is too small and far away for the United States to feel obliged to defend. |
¡» American Enterprise Institute , 2024-5-3 | From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War / (1) uses economic carrots and sticks, information operations, and military escalation to convince the US and Taiwan that their cooperation directly precipitates further escalation (2) Economic warfare, cyberwarfare, sabotage, rigorous (and pseudo-legal) inspections of ships carrying goods to Taiwan, air and sea closures, electronic warfare, and propaganda (3) break the Taiwanese public's will to resist by intimidating supporters of resistance, sowing doubt and fear ... (4) information campaigns aim to decrease the US public's and political leadership's willingness to support Taiwan. aei.org/research-products/report/from-coercion-to-capitulation-how-china-can-take-taiwan-without-a-war/ |
¡@
: ¡»
New York Times,
2024-9-25: Taiwan and U.S. Work to Counter China's Drone Dominance
, a move
that would also help blunt any threats posed to the island by China.
¡§Security
and intellectual property risks are real but manageable with the right
safeguards¡¨¡»
Council on
Foreign Relations,
2024-9-25: today
China's outmatches Taiwan's
both in size and quality, U.S. defense officials say it does not yet have
the ability to carry out a successful amphibious assault on the island amid a
U.S. military intervention on Taiwan¡¦s behalf.
¡»
Wall Street Journal,
2024-9-21:
Supply bottlenecks had delayed delivery of weapon systems to Taiwan
valued at more than $20 billion. Unlike Ukraine or Israel, Taiwan's geography as an island makes
resupplying its military a bigger challenge. Military experts in the West
are particularly concerned that China could try to force Taiwan to capitulate
with a blockade.Taiwan needs to be as independent as
possible to be able to replenish its weapon systems.
China's strategy to annex Taiwan |
|
¡» Brookings, 2024-9-16 |
What
Taiwan most fears¡Xan amphibious invasion¡Xis currently
beyond the PLA's
reach. Beijing has developed two different
means¡Xmilitary and coercive¡Xto achieve its political objective of
unification.Both
require the resolve of Taiwan leaders and the public, plus a capable military to
enhance deterrence. The U.S. commitment to the island's
security remains critical. |
¡» Financial Times, 2024-9-19 | The scale of China's military activity is getting larger and larger, and so it is harder to discern when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and from an exercise to war. military moves below the threshold of war poses challenge to Taiwan's defences.ft.com/content/3402d159-418c-4485-abb4-7e2155288d61 |
¡» Politico, 2024-9-11 | Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower |
U.S. SEAL Team Six ¢w¢w resisting China's invasion ? |
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¡» Insider, 2024-9-18 | A Navy SEAL unit that killed Osama bin Laden may be training Taiwanese forces to defeat a possible Chinese invasion. The US has become more hawkish about the possibility of defending Taiwan if China ever invades. |
¡» Voice of America, 2024-9-14 | the secret and precise combat characteristics of the United States Navy's elite SEAL Team Six mean its role in resisting China's invasion of Taiwan would be very limited and the focus would be on carrying out special tasks. |
¡» Financial Times, New York Post, 2024-9-12 | SEAL Team Six has spent more than a year training for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. However, the US has so far declined to explicitly say it would come to Taiwan's aid if attacked. |
¡@
¡» Politico, 2024-9-11: Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario. But, China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower ¡» Economist, 2024-9-5: Taiwan needs to hold out long enough for friends to come to its aid, but polls suggest the will to resist rests, in turn, on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics ¡» Wall Street Journal, 2024-9-2: Elbridge Colby's argument has always been that Taiwan isn't itself of existential importance to America. Rather, our core interest is in denying China regional hegemony over Asia. Taiwan is very important for that goal, but not essential ¡» Wall Street Journal, 2024-8-28: Elbridge Colby suggested the U.S. may not come to Taiwan's defense in the event of Chinese aggression. Robert O'Brien urged Taiwan to spend at least 5% of its gross domestic product on defense.¡» Insider, 2024-8-29: Taiwan is rethinking its use of US-made anti-tank missiles after less than half hit their targets in recent combat drills.
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