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China - Taiwan War |
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| ◆ Washington Post, 2025-1-17 | Taiwan is entering a period of political upheaval that could hinder its combat readiness; The two parties (KMT, TPP) that hold the majority in parliament are calling for substantial cuts, including to defense spending; Debates over defense — “whether to increase the military budget or pay a ‘protection fee’ to Trump” — are being “turned into battlegrounds for partisan conflict”. Trump has declined to give Biden's promise, instead calling for Taipei to pay for U.S. protection. |
| ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2025-1-15 | A top concern among U.S. security analysts is that China's growing military capabilities and assertiveness, as well as the deterioration in cross-strait relations, could spark a conflict that leads to a U.S.-China confrontation. |
| ◆ Financial Times, 2025-1-13 | Taiwan's long stretches of the coast comprise cliffs, reefs and rocks, while the flatter western seaboard is lined with mudflats. China building new mobile piers could help possible Taiwan invasion; But military experts said a Chinese invasion force would still struggle to advance through Taiwan's western plains, which are densely packed with paddy fields, fish ponds and urban sprawl, with wide roads often hard to reach from shore. |
| ◆ Bloomberg, 2025-1-14 |
Taiwan's military is not prepared for a Trumpian World; With the former president soon back in the White House, Taipei needs to rethink its defense strategy. |
| ◆ The Hill, 2025-1-7 | a professor at Brown University said the cost of a war with China is “incalculable” and would at the very least sow mass destruction in Taiwan and the South China Sea region; the U.S. should avoid a war over Taiwan, arguing it amounts to a civil war dispute and, for the U.S., a moral conundrum more than a national security risk. |
| ◆ Financial Times, 2025-1-5 |
Taiwan suspects a
Chinese-owned ship of cutting a subsea cable off its northern coast. Taipei is concerned that such “greyzone” operations, below the threshold of war, will make it harder to defend against aggression that could eventually escalate to an outright attack. ps: Politico Europe (2025-1-5): Taiwan has experienced several dozen incidents of damage to its underwater telecom cables in recent years, without being able to definitively identify the source of the attacks, and has appealed to the European Union for help. |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2025-1-3 | In addition to unleashing its full military power, Beijing would be expected to use a variety of economic strategies in a showdown over Taiwan. A 2023 study by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council concluded that Beijing has been more systematic in preparing such defenses than Russia was to counter Western sanctions. |
| ◆ Washington Post, 2025-1-1 | Xi's New Year speech: "No one can sever our blood ties, and no one can stop the historical trend of the reunification of the motherland!" |
| ◆ Washington Examiner, 2025-1-1 | The quantity and quality of munitions to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has fallen as they have been diverted to Ukraine. The sooner the war in Ukraine ends, the sooner American forces can rearm in the Pacific. While Taiwan's 2.5% of GDP spent on defense is impressive compared to many European nations, it is nowhere near what is needed in a nation at the front line of conflict. |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-12-31 | Without a plan, a Taiwan crisis risks undermining the foundations of American prosperity and security. As a report from a House panel concluded last year: "The United States lacks a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of conflict" with China. Imposing sweeping sanctions on China would undermine the international economic system that the United States is uniquely positioned to protect. |
| ◆ USNI News, 2024-12-19 | The Pentagon's report recognizes that China has “both the will and capability to alter the international order in its favor”; but Xi Jinping's goal of having his military ready to carry out a “short, sharp invasion” of Taiwan by 2027 “is not possible right now”; the force has not yet demonstrated the type and scale of sophisticated urban warfare or long-distance logistic capabilities that would likely be required for operations against Taiwan or major contingencies overseas”. |
| ◆ Financial Times, 2024-12-13 | US nuclear build-up would not help deter China from using atomic weapons in Taiwan, war game finds; Unclassified exercise by CSIS and MIT suggests Washington should not go beyond current modernisation plans... only five of 15 iterations of the nuclear game ended with a withdrawal of the PLA. |
| ◆ Economist, 2024-12-5 |
American military officials have
long worried about a “window of vulnerability” before new weapons enter
into service in the 2030s. But
corruption in the PLA is changing the calculations of analysts;
China's economic woes and social
discontent mean that Mr Xi is turning inward. The views (the period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out for several years) are not universally shared, in or out of government. “Xi has his foot firmly on the accelerator and a full tank of gas". |
| ◆ VOX, 2024-12-16 | a majority of Taiwanese and US national security experts do not believe China currently has the capability to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, most do believe China could currently enact either a blockade or a quarantine of the island. And such an operation may prove just as effective while carrying far less risk for Beijing. |
| ◆ Breaking Defense, 2024-12-6 |
The head of the Defense
Intelligence Agency: China did
appear to be on track to meet Xi's 2027 preparedness goal. House intel's Himes: You could implement a blockade. You know, what? If you invade Taiwan, what happens? A. You may lose. B. You may reduce the place to smoking rubble, what have you really achieved economically? |
| ◆ Newsweek, 2024-11-20 | U.S. Pacific Commander Samuel Paparo: a cross-strait invasion executed by the Chinese military would be "exceedingly difficult" given the advantages of the U.S. and allies. |
| ◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-12-4 |
Chinese leaders have said
they want their military to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, though
U.S. defense leaders have said the date does not guarantee a decision to
carry out such an operation has been made.
War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles "very rapidly", national security adviser J. Sullivan acknowledged that China has "the single biggest advantage", "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC" . |
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Prosecutors indict former presidential candidate Ko ♦ He and his supports accused a political vendetta |
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| ◆ Washington Post, 2025-1-17 |
With Ko's indictment, the KMT and TPP are accusing Lai of abusing
his powers to politically influence the judiciary.
Opposition supporters have been holding large-scale demonstrations in
recent weeks.
Ko denies the charges, which his
supporters say are politically motivated. “It's political persecution",
"an end to “DPP tyranny”. In last year's presidential election, Ko with his party's strong performance key to why Lai's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its legislative majority. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-cut-its-defense-budget-just-as-trump-returns/ar-AA1xmU6y?ocid=BingNewsVerp |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-12-26 | Ko has denied the charges and said that he was the victim of a political vendetta mounted by Mr. Lai's government...thousands of supporters gathered in protests, arguing that the allegations were flimsy and politically motivated, and that seemingly corrupt politicians from Mr. Lai's DPParty had been spared investigations. “What's important to keep in mind is that the sort of political force that he awakened in Taiwan is not going to go away,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist at NCCU. nytimes.com/2024/12/26/world/asia/taiwan-presidential-candidate-indicted.html |
| ◆ Bloomberg, 2024-12-26 | The Taiwan People's Party (founded by Ko) denounced the indictment in a press briefing : “Today, Taiwan is experiencing judicial injustice, with politics and state machinery being used to persecute political opponents,” The indictment “lacks financial evidence and concrete proof, relying solely on pieced-together claims to destroy political adversaries.” |
| ◆ BBC, 2024-12-26 | A dark horse in presidential election, Ko won votes not far behind ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te's 40%; His sizable showing pointed to voters' demand for a more pluralistic political landscape beyond the two main parties. Ko was expected to seek the presidency again in 2028. His allies and supporters accused the DPP of using the charges to suppress its opponents. |
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Trump's defense policy on Taiwan |
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| ◆ Voice of America, 2024-12-26 |
Taiwan seeks clarity on Trump team
policy amid Chinese pressure. There is still quite a bit of resistance not only within the security apparatus and armed forces, which don't like the idea of involving citizens in defense, the opposition parties have also sought to derail [relevant] plans and fundings. What may come next depends on Taiwan's actions and Beijing's assessment of Trump's policies toward the island after he takes office. |
| ◆ Insider, 2024-12-26 | Trump's next undersecretary of defense policy, Elbridge Colby, once called for the destruction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's chip plants if China takes over Taiwan. In Feb., Colby said "disabling or destroying TSMC is table stakes" if China invades Taiwan. The US and its allies can't afford to allow China to "have such dominance over global semiconductors," he wrote in 2023. |
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pic. : No.1 "review Taiwan" on Yandex, 2025-1-6, 2025-1-1, 2024-12-31, 2024-12-28, 2023-9-13, 2023-9-6, 2023-9-1; No.2 "review Taiwan" on Yandex, 2024-12-27, 2024-12-22, 2024-12-20; " No.2 "Review Taiwan" on Yandex , 2024-8-8, 2023-12-12; No.3 "review Taiwan", at 2024-12-25, 2024-12-15, 2024-2-1, 2023-11-1; " review Taiwan" among top ranks on Yandex, 2024-12-15
pic. : No.1 "review Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2024-1-6, 2025-1-1, 2024-12-31, 2024-12-29, 2024-12-22, No.2 "review Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2024-12-27, 2024-12-26; No.1 "review Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2024-9-30, 2024-9-15, 2024-9-12, 2024-9-7, 2024-8-20, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-23, 2024-7-11, 2024-5-1, 2024-3-15, 2024-1-14, 2024-1-1, 2023-11-29, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-6, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-25, 2023-8-8, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-14, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-17, 2023-6-13, 2023-5-23, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-4-15, 2023-3-31, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-16, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-24, 2022-8-18, 2022-8-1,2022-7-29, 2022-7-21, 2022-7-4, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-14, 2022-6-2, 2022-5-26, 2022-5-24, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-2-3, 2022-1-22, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-21, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-29; No.2 "review Taiwan" on Yahoo, 2024-7-1, 2024-6-3, 2024-4-19; among top ranks at 2024-12-25, No.1 "review Taiwan" on Yahoo Taiwan, 2024-1-1
No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2024-9-12, 2024-9-7, 2024-8-29, 2024-8-20, 2024-8-8, 2024-8-2, 2024-7-23, 2024-7-11,
No.3 on US
Google, 2024-7-1;
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Taiwan Lawmakers Brawl Over Controversial Bills |
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| ◆ Bloomberg, 2024-12-23 | Taiwan's government said a legal change to budget rules could derail its 2025 spending plan, underscoring challenges the opposition is posing to the new leader of the democracy at the core of China-US tensions. |
| ◆ Bloomberg, 2024-12-20 | A new wave of political wrangling between Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties that has involved street protests and lawmakers tussling adds to questions about President Lai Ching-te's ability to govern one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical hotspots. |
| ◆ Newsweek, AP News, France24 2024-12-20 | The dispute centers on three bills pushed by the Nationalist Party (KMT, the opposition), including one to redistribute tax revenues, allocating a greater share to local governments; another one to raise the threshold for removing elected officials. A DPP leader said that the party's actions were extreme but that it had no other options. KMT said it would prevent the power of recalls from "being abused" but some DPP lawmakers said they fear the move would revoke rights to remove unfit officials. |
| ◆ CBS, 2024-12-20, video | cbsnews.com/chicago/video/taiwan-lawmakers-brawl-over-controversial-legislation/ |
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Taiwan's presidential office runs first 'tabletop' simulation of Chinese military escalation |
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| ◆ CNN, 2024-12-27 | The simulation highlights Taipei's urgency in ensuring preparedness against an increasingly assertive Beijing. Unlike traditional war games by the military, the tabletop exercise was aimed at testing how different government agencies could "ensure the normal functioning of society" in times of crisis |
| ◆ Reuters, 2024-12-26 | The exercise simulated scenarios including China's "high intensity" grey-zone warfare as well as when the island is "on the verge of conflict" to test response readiness by Taiwan government offices and civil society. |
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China's largest deployment around Taiwan since 1996 |
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| ◆ Fox News, 2024-12-10 | After Taiwanese president visits Hawaii and Guam, Chinese military makes massive deployment around Taiwan to send 'very simple' message: "The Taiwan Strait is ours"; Taiwan defense officials are raising concerns ..., saying the build-up could eventually lead to war as tensions continue to rise in the area. |
| ◆ Financial Times, 2024-12-15 |
Big Chinese naval exercise
to
"punish" its
president, Lai Ching-te, for a trip abroad (included
U.S.)
leaves Taiwan and US struggling
for response. Taiwan: the manoeuvres involved all three of the PLA's coastal theatre commands for the first time, a demonstration that they can lock down the First Island Chain. The US: Taiwan may have become overly alarmed ... was trying to “wake up the public". A senior Japanese official: “China has crossed some new line in every of their past exercises”; now they can do manoeuvres of this size without announcement. |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-12-10 | Taiwan says China has deployed largest fleet of ships in decades, which could block American allies in the region from coming to Taiwan's defense. Speculation had been growing for days that China would launch war games in retaliation for visits made by Lai Ching-te to Hawaii and Guam last week; The surge in Chinese ships could also be a signal to the incoming Trump administration, which has yet to indicate how it will deal with Taiwan. |
| ◆ AFP, 2024-12-11 | Taiwan security official : the sea drills were "significantly larger" than Beijing's maritime response to then-US House speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022, which was China's largest-ever war games around Taiwan. China's massive maritime operation began in October were aimed at demonstrating that Beijing could choke off Taiwan and also to "draw a red line" ahead of the next US administration. |
| ◆ EuroNews, 2024-12-11 |
Expert:
"They were practicing to seal off Taiwan” , referring to a scenario
whereby the Chinese coast guard ships could block Taiwan's ports while
the navy would form an outer barrier at sea. Asked whether he would commit to defending Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression, Trump told NBC “I never say, because I have to negotiate things, right?" “We talked about other things” ,“But I have a very good relationship, and I hope he doesn't do it" |
| ◆ Reuters, 2024-12-11 | China says it takes 'necessary measures' to defend sovereignty over Taiwan |
| ◆ Associated Press, 2024-12-11 | Taiwan demands that China end its military activity in nearby waters |
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Taiwan Prepares for Trump's Return. |
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| ◆ CNN, 2024-12-15 | one thing's for sure: Trump is a less vocal supporter of Taiwan than Joe Biden. That's why Taiwan is buckling up for what could be a far more volatile relationship with Washington. Trump's remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace, that could affect the island's economic security and dismantle the very “silicon shield” ... |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-11-24 | Taiwan is ready to defend democracy. Is Trump? Maybe he will strike some sort of bargain with Taiwan. But whatever Taiwan can offer him, Beijing can easily top. More and more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess piece,” no longer valued by the United States. China amplifies these fears... |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-11-18 |
Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is
at stake, that it
can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in
the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war. Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP—a lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and South Korea's 2.7%; In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness. |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-11-10 | Taiwan's leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate more production in the United States. Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure from Washington. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to 10 percent of its gross domestic product (from about 2.6 percent). Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan's president. Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between Washington and Taipei. |
| ◆ Fox News, 2024-11-10 | Trump's public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny island democracy (Taiwan). there is hope among restraint groups that Trump will be focused on economic warfare with China – rather than military. "We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ... the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. " |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-11-6 | Some diplomats in Asia expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade the self-governing island it claims as its territory; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the United States. “With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist, “And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with great risk for Taiwan.” |
| ◆ Washington Post, 2024-11-6 | Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” about American intent at a time when the Taiwanese are “directly threatened by CCP disinformation aimed at undermining U.S. credibility” |
| ◆ New York Times, 2024-11-6 news briefing |
Many
believe Trump's
foreign policy changes could have a greater impact than anything since
the start of the Cold War. Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say, "defending Taiwan is not in our interest.” But I doubt he's going to actually do that... |
| ◆ Business Insider, 2024-11-9 | In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it. |
| ◆ Bloomberg, 2024-11-5 | Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove harmful for Taiwan's semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some anticipate. |
| ◆ Reuters, 2024-11-6 | From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as close US presidential race ends. Trump might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's compromise on trade. |
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