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Washington Post, 2024-6-6:China's gray zone strategy on Taiwan is gathering in intensity; The West must strongly deter — without foreclosing a future reconciliation between Taipei and Beijing United States Institute of Peace , 2024-6-6:Given Lai Ching-te's tougher line on China and Beijing's unyielding position on Taiwan, it's unlikely that cross-Strait relations will improve or that tensions will lower anytime soon.  Washington should remain laser-focused on helping Taiwan defend itself and deter military conflict.

The US defends Taiwan ?

TIME, 2024-6-4 Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc"

China's 'reunification' with Taiwan

Reuters, 2024-6-2 Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan is being increasingly "eroded" by Taiwanese separatists and external forces (alluded to Washington), China says
Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2
Taiwanese political security, not simply military deterrence and rhetorical balancing, are key to Chinese success.

China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan as 'Punishment', 'Reprisals'

  Washington Examiner, 2024-5-31 Foreign Affairs : invasion does not appear to be China's preferred option. Beijing's more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan's airspace, maritime space, and information space. The United States must become more alert to the dangers posed by a slow strangulation of Taiwan.
 FoxNews, 2024-5-28 House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose if China invaded Taiwan."
 New York Times, 2024-5-27 “The United States must maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan,” Mr. McCaul, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said.
 New York Post, 2024-5-24 Beijing's endless saber-rattling over Taiwan proves just how high the stakes are for the United States
 New York Times, 2024-5-22 China took offense to Mr. Lai's assertion that  —  they “are not subordinate to each other” —  and his emphasis on Taiwan's democratic identity and warnings against threats from China. Beijing accused Mr. Lai of promoting formal independence for Taiwan ── the drill was “based on various stages of an invasion of Taiwan... might feature training to seize one of those islands".
BBC, 2024-5-23 the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan"... for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and DongyinChina aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
AFP, 2024-5-23 China holds war games around Taiwan, vows flowing blood CCTV : the drills were partly aimed at rehearsing an economic blockade of the island, "strangle" Taiwan's critical Kaohsiung port to "severely impact" its foreign trade,  and cut off "Taiwan's lifeline of energy imports" as well as "block the support lines that some US allies provide to 'Taiwan independence' forces".   General S. Sklenka described the exercises as "concerning" but not unexpected.
CNN, 2024-5-22 CCTV: creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island.  An expert ( at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peacecalls China's latest drills “an intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.” Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options to coerce and inflict pain
AFP, 2024-5-22 China slammed the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a " downright 'confession of Taiwan independence'"

 

 


 

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No.1  "review Taiwan"  on Duckduckgo,  2024-6-3, 2024-1-1, 2023-1-1
   

 

 

 

 

New York Times, 2024-5-20: Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te vows to keep the island democracy safe in the face of Chinese pressure and wars raging abroad that have fed uncertainty over Western staying power.  "Peace through strength" is going to be his main posture Lai's opponents in Taiwan say that he risks driving the island down a security dead end — unable to talk with Beijing and yet ill prepared for any confrontation.  Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president, the ruling party DPP has transformed the island democracy into a bulwark against Chinese aggression and brushed off increasingly ominous threats from Beijing; the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy    Reuters, 2024-5-20: Lai Ching-te takes office as Taiwan's new president facing an angry and deeply suspicious China which believes he is a "separatist", and a fractious parliament with an opposition chomping at the bit to challenge him. Foreign Affairs, 2024-5-15: Only when Washington was able to convince Moscow that it was serious about defending the city did the Soviets blink and pull back from confrontation.  Today, a similarly muscular deterrence strategy to convince China that an invasion of Taiwan would trigger catastrophic consequences is the United States' best chance to achieve a similar détente with China.  If the United States can avoid a crisis over Taiwan in the next few years, China's economic and demographic weaknesses will likely force Beijing into making more and more compromises    full text

 

War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Zelensky: "I need ammunition, not a ride"; Whereas Ukraine was focused on acquiring military aid, Taiwan will almost certainly be asking potential allies to engage in a direct military intervention.  Instead of focusing on ideology, Taiwan might be better served by appealing to the core security interests of the United States and its regional partners. Foreign Policy, 2024-5-12: China and the U.S. are numb to the real risk of war The pair are dangerously close to the edge of nuclear war over Taiwan—again.   Business Insider, 2024-5-10: China is untangling its economy from the West. It could be preparing for long-term tensions — and an invasion of Taiwan. Defense News, 2024-5-7: DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan But experts said Chinese law doesn't have timelines for an attack on Taiwan;“All politicians want options, so the last thing you want is to be tied to a deadline.” Bloomberg, 2024-5-2: China, Russia militaries work closer on Taiwan“We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan...", Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said  in testimony to Congress.  New York Times, 2024-5-3: U.S. officials came to think that Mr. Xi would try to invade only if he believed he would succeed in a relatively bloodless operation before American troops responded... U.S. SM-6 missile seemed right for the job.  Financial Times, 2024-5-3: Instead of trying to defeat China’s vastly superior air and naval forces head-on, Taiwan should ensure that any force attempting to come ashore would be slaughtered.  The US have long urged Taipei down that road...   TIME, 2024-5-1:  Communist China's leaders “have to understand that things like that can't come easy,” Trump says, but he declines to say whether he would come to Taiwan's defense.  National Interest, 2024-5-1: To defend Taiwan, America needs to upgrade its defense-industrial base.  Both America and its allies are now deeply preoccupied by events in other portions of the globe, which could lead the CCP to believe that it should strike while the United States is spread thin The Telegraph, 2024-5-1: ... Beijing's hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons – not to enable an attack on Taiwan at a chosen date, but to ensure that with the balance of power changing in China's favour, it will not be needed.  Xi is betting on political disarray and disunity among the US and his Western allies    ABC News, 2024-5-1: The US is in a Cold War with China over Taiwan.  Taiwan is really existential to U.S. interests because of its position in the region; whoever controls Taiwan, really controls that Indo-Pacific region.  Does China's economy make them more likely to invade Taiwan or less likely?  It may very well drive Xi if he thinks that he's not going to catch up with the United States in terms of being the biggest economy, it may drive him to go for this sooner. Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-30: Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports as global demand for electronics picks up, benefiting the producer of high-end chips. The research firm projects Taiwan’s economic growth at 5.5% this year, well above consensus views.    full text

 

 

 

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New York Times, 2024-4-23:  in the Foreign Aid Package, the House attached a provision that would allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advanced U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from invading the island. USNI News, 2024-4-23: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Issues - A key consideration for U.S. policymakers is whether and if so how to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself in a possible cross-Strait conflict without triggering such a conflict. New York Times, 2024-4-18: The House is set to vote on a foreign aid package for Taiwan -  allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advance U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from launching an invasion Economist, 2024-4-18: China is talking to Taiwan's next leader, just not directly ... being granted an audience with Xi Jinping, Ma Ying-jeou (Taiwan's former president ) wrote that Mr Xi had “extended an olive branch to us”.  Mr Ma hoped that Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's next president, would “put the people first and respond pragmatically”. Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-15: Appointing a national-security team that is almost identical to that of his predecessor will help reassure the White House that Lai isn't likely to sharply alter Taiwan's posture toward Beijing; Bringing a civilian into the defense ministry can promote reforms,  Taiwan's military will likely accelerate spending on asymmetric capabilities, a path that many in Washington have called for as Taiwan focuses on deterring an attack by a much larger Chinese military Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-13: many of Kinmen's (Taiwan's front-line, just 3 miles away from mainland)  residents have much more direct kinship ties to people on the mainland.  The use of force against Kinmen would signal that China can no longer hope to win the rest of Taiwan through anything but force, and would make such an invasion that much more difficult. New York Times, 2024-4-10: China's immediate focus is to push the incoming Lai Ching-te administration to adopt a more accommodating political stance on cross-strait relations.  China has brushed off Mr. Lai's offers to talk as insincere. On the other hand, Beijing has shown that it will court friendlier Taiwanese politicians, like Mr. Ma, who accept the framework for relations demanded by Beijing: that both sides accept that they are part of one China, even if they differ on what that means.  CNN, 2024-4-10: It's the first time a former president of Taiwan has been hosted by China's top leader in Beijing since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT fled to Taipei in 1949.   Their reunion highlights the widening political divide across the Taiwan Strait, and is a signal to Taiwan and others that peaceful unification through winning over hearts and minds remains Beijing's preferred option   Fox News, 2024-4-6: The largest coordinated display since last year - The incursion into Taiwanese territory by People's Liberation Army (PLA) planes and sea vessels followed a Tuesday phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. New York Times, 2024-4-3: In a rare call, Biden spoke with Xi. China said that Xi had called for “concrete actions” to demonstrate a U.S. commitment not to support Taiwan's independence.   War on The Rocks, 2024-4-4:  The comparative analysis suggests that a crisis in northeast Asia is more likely to start on the Korean Peninsula, not in Taiwan.   full text

 

7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off Taiwan

Fortune, 2024-4-4 TSMC said its fabrication plants recovered 70% of tools within 10 hours of the earthquake, and that its “critical tools,” such as its multimillion-dollar extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, remain unharmed...  its massive chip foundry mega-complexes are nearly quake-proof.
New York Times, 2024-4-4 Taipei 101, once the tallest building in the world, still, some experts say that more needs to be done to either strengthen or demolish structures that don't meet standards, and such calls have grown louder in the wake of the latest earthquake.
The government had also helped reinforce private apartment buildings over the past six years by adding new steel braces and increasing column and beam sizes
...
USA Today, 2024-4-4 The island's two nuclear power stations remain unaffected.  Nvidia said it expects no supply disruptions from the earthquake.  Taiwan, prone to earthquakes, sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” where 90% of the world's temblors take place.  It felt strong in Taipei because of the “basin effect,” which occurs when earthquake reverberations become trapped in soft ground.
ABC News, 2024-4-3  TSMC, one of the biggest companies in Taiwan's crucial semiconductor manufacturing industry, said its safety systems were operating normally and that some fabrication plants had been evacuated as a preventive measure.
LA Times, 2024-4-4 Just recognizing that the fault didn't get near a major population center is probably the most important factor that reduced the damage.  Some residents voiced concerns about the alert system because not everyone was notified.
United Daily (聯合報), 2024-4-4 Why didn't most of Taiwanese receive government's national alert ?   Why did the government make such a serious misjudgment ?  udn.com/news/story/7338/7876798?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
TIME, 2024-4-4 China offered earthquake aid to Taiwan—Taiwan's quick rejection likely stemmed, experts say, from lingering bitterness over how the 1999 earthquake was handled.

 

National Interest, 2024-3-30 : Xi Jinping's statement in December 2023 hinted at possible invasion plans. Experts suggest Taiwan should pivot to insurgency tactics, including bolstering coastal defenses, developing hypersonic weapons, deploying massive numbers of drones, creating electromagnetic spectrum jammers, and distributing small arms widely among the population. Fox News, 2024-3-27 : Taiwan stands as major line of defense against global war with China, A change in Taiwan's status might not directly threaten the U.S. homeland in the immediate term, but it would irreversibly alter regional dynamics in ways that would benefit America's chief geopolitical adversary   New York Times, 2024-3-28 : Taiwan's top diplomat says a Russian victory could embolden China to move against Taiwan and would fuel anti-American propaganda    New York Times, 2024-3-24 : Larger, more menacing military actions are possible, especially after Mr. Lai's inauguration. Any conciliatory messages in Mr. Lai's presidential inauguration speech were unlikely to shift China's strategy -“The gray zone operations against Taiwan will become more intense”... only a few thousand troops on Kinmen, giving Kinmen little immediate protection if China ever decided to invade.   Mr. Xi probably won't make any big decisions over Taiwan before the United States' presidential election   War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21 : Military analysts have proposed  denying air superiority  to China via mobile surface-to-air missiles and drones and creating a “prickly fortress of sea denial” with  road-mobile anti-ship missiles; The naval mines make it easier to channel Chinese forces into areas where they are most vulnerable to Taiwan's anti-ship missiles, gun batteries, and drones  Bloomberg, 2024-3-20 : China on track to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027, US says / the leader of the Indo-Pacific Command  testified China is building its military and nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since World War II and all signs suggest it's sticking to ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-18 : U.S. officials and military scholars have long believed that the expensive hardware is apt to get wiped out by China's much larger military, in the early stages of attack. For the past few years, Taiwan's procurement, under U.S. pressure, has put more emphasis on asymmetrical weapons such as Harpoon antiship missiles, Himars rocket launchers and mines.  but if China amasses forces around the island in a blockade, or if Beijing's military establishes a firm beachhead on Taiwan. In such scenarios, small, short-range weapons could be less effective at degrading the enemy, Taiwanese defense officials say.       full text

 

Taiwan Confirms US Troops on Front-Line Islands Near China

Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-20 Taiwan acknowledges presence of U.S. troops on outlying islands /  The U.S. planned to expand its presence of troops in Taiwan to between 100 and 200 last year, up from roughly 30 in 2022. The U.S. and Taiwan have been largely silent on the deployment as they attempt to avoid agitating Beijing while they work to fortify Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion.
Taiwan News, 2024-3-21 US commander denies permanently stationing troops on Taiwan's outer island

 

New York Times, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan is building a satellite network without Elon Musk.  China is Tesla's largest market outside of the United States. Musk has made comments endorsing the Chinese Communist Party's stance on Taiwan. War On The Rocks, 2024-3-14 : U.S.  public support  for Taiwan, which is as high as it has ever been according to polls, supports aiding Taiwan to defend itself against China in the event of an attack, but consistently opposes any direct military intervention by the United States. Foreign Policy, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan imports  97 percent  of its energy through highly vulnerable maritime shipping routes. Any quarantine, blockade, or invasion of the island by China would devastate its ability to sustain basic services and critical infrastructure—not to mention the factories that produce approximately  90 percent  of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Solutions are in short supply. Financial Times, 2024-3-11 : Frequently, "grey zone", semi-hostile behaviour, is via fishing boats and coastguard vessels on the fringes of Taiwanese waters, designed, it seems, to keep testing and squeezing Taiwan.  China recently sharpened its rhetoric saying it must “fight” Taiwanese independence, rather than “oppose” it, its previous preferred formulation.   CNN (2024-3-10) : the Economist declared that Taiwan was “the most dangerous place on Earth.”; The world's most dangerous place has only gotten more dangerous. Perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of China and the reality of America's dominant status made this inevitable, "destined for war" .  In the past, Communist China believed that it could wait (reunification) because time was on its side. But that premise is proving untrue. This issue will need to be managed rather than solved —All three sides should keep talking ... United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5) : After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure. China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional conflict. Associated Press (2024-3-5):  conquest over the self-governing island democracy of Taiwan, driving Indian forces from their disputed border, and asserting control over islands in the East China and South China Sea all on Beijing's list of priorities. Reuters, 2024-3-5: In the government work report, China reiterated a call for "reunification" with Taiwan, but dropped the descriptor "peaceful", which had been used in previous reports. The change in language is closely watched as a possible sign of more assertive stance towards Taiwan.  China raises defence spending by 7.2% USNI.org, 2024-3-1: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense and Military Issues / The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Civil-military relations are strained...Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and its military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, physical safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear in the face of possible PRC armed aggression...renewing U.S. debates about how to allocate limited resources to shore up Taiwan's resilience  New York Times, 2024-2-26: The P.L.A.'s now-normalized presence around Taiwan raises the risk of an accidental confrontation. Taiwan's response has been inconsistent and lacks transparency, which may further embolden Beijing...Taipei's approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent   Financial Times, 2024-2-27: Chinese research ships increase incursions near Taiwan Financial Times, 2024-2-23: In the past, China would only talk about the ‘one-China principle’, but now they have rolled it all into one with the push for unification VOA, 2024-2-23: Taiwan faces tough balancing act as China increases pressure Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry.  So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.

 

Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-20       foreignaffairs.com/scared-strait  brief

Raymond Kuo, Michael A. Hunzeker, Mark A. Christopher GLASER, WEISS, AND CHRISTENSEN reply
(They) argue that Washington and Taiwan are not doing enough to assure Beijing of their intentions, in the process undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.... providing more assurances will simply embolden Beijing to continue its threatening behavior.  Conditional, credible consequences are now essential to encouraging a less bellicose Chinese policy...when deterrence is needed against a determined and capable rival, assurances that are not reciprocated can quickly become concessions. we did not advocate an “assurance first” strategy that offers “concessions” to appease Beijing... the new military measures we think are needed for deterrence will be less effective if Beijing believes they are aimed at buttressing a unilateral assertion of independence by Taiwan or ... an alliance... China can attack out of fear.  They may believe that Taiwan can safely assert permanent sovereign independence as long as there is sufficient military might in place to dissuade Beijing from attacking. If so, they are hardly alone, but we strongly disagree.

 

War On The Rocks, 2024-2-22:  the destruction of squadrons of fighter planes and ships would harm Taiwan's ability to resist by tanking civilian morale in the opening days of the war...  If Taiwan's military is unable to defeat a PLA invasion force at sea, or on the shore, it will be necessary to “deny in depth” using a host of cheap and man-portable weapons as well as a flexible and survivable command system.  Toward that end, Lee also suggests a “territorial defense force” of mobilized civilians

 

 

CNN, 2024-2-19: China ramps up patrols near Taiwan's outlying islands following death of Chinese fishermen.  The patrols are likely to put Chinese coast guard vessels in closer proximity to their Taiwanese counterparts, potentially raising the risk of miscalculation and conflict. Financial Times, 2024-2-19: China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen just off the Chinese coast Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: A war over the island could easily cause a global depression.   A Chinese seizure of Taiwan could trigger a race among nations to develop their own nuclear arsenals as U.S. security guarantees lost credibility DW, 2024-2-16: Elbridge Colby: Taiwan's military preparation has "lagged behind the scale of the threat" despite some incremental progress. "Not really doing anything near what it would need to do to make itself more defensible" borders on "vaguely suicidal behavior"   CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity,  stability, rather than debates over Taiwan's sovereignty are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world  War On The Rocks , 2024-2-12: the military balance of power has shifted decisively, enabling an amphibious invasion from a capabilities standpoint in the not-too-distant future, while prospects of peaceful unification have faded. As such, it is now something of a conventional wisdom that a Chinese invasion has become more likely than not.   Taiwan's armed forces should instead prioritize the acquisition, production, and employment of mines, drones, and missiles. Mines are likely Taiwan's best way to “buy time” with minimal risk   Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.  Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the US has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to decide how to respond. TIME , 2024-2-9: In an event of invasion, the first 48 hours are extremely important, because that’s the window within which China will take advantage of its geographic proximity, and it will take some time before the American Navy Indo-Pacific Command can respond to a major contingency,  “That's where the Philippines comes in.” Newsweek, 2024-2-8: US Army special forces as a permanent arrangement train Taiwan troops in Penghu, Kinmen and Taoyuan; the permanent presence of American forces on the island was considered a possible trigger for a cross-strait shooting war Reuters, 2024-2-6: If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership; Stopping that would require rapid mobilisation -  but more than two million former conscripts receive no ongoing further training    New York Times, 2024-2-5 briefing: China's expanding nuclear arsenal - The weapons could also shape the future of Taiwan — if China gained confidence that it could use their existence to limit Western intervention in any conflict  National Interest, 2024-2-2:  hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.     full text

 

   Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

  Taiwan China Japan Korea Singapore
Comprehensive Power No.14 15.2 points 2nd 3rd 7th 8th
Economic capability 8th, 13.0 2nd  87.0 3rd   5th 6th
Military Capability 11th, 21.7 2nd   68.1 6th   27.4 5th 9th
Resilience 18th, 24.7 3rd   70.4 11th  10th 14th
Future Resources 12th, 6.5 2nd   72.9 5th 7th 11th
Diplomatic Influence  22th , 19.4 1st    91.5 3rd 6th 10th
Economic Relationships 12th, 11.1 1st   98.3 3rd 5th 4th
Cultural Influence 13th, 12.6 2nd   47.4 3rd 7th 9th
Defense Networks 16th, 11.8 7th    23.7 3rd 4th 5th
Asia's Comprehensive Power rankings:  1.US 2.Chn 3.Japan 4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8. Singapore 9.Indonesia
10.Thailand  11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC)
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/

New York Times, 2024-1-20: Polls show growing distrust of the United States in Taiwan
 

Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-1-31: China says the U.S. could abandon Taiwan if Trump wins the Presidency; In July, Trump avoided directly answering a query over whether as president he'd defend Taiwan if China attacked.

  New York Times, 2024-1-27:  The truth is that Taiwan hasn't been willing to make deep sacrifices for its own security.  It allocates a smaller share of G.D.P. to defense than the United States, Israel or Estonia; it is only now requiring a year of military conscription (for men); and it is phasing out nuclear power plants, which are critical for resilience in a blockade because they provide homegrown power when imports provide 98 percent of energy National Interest, 2024-1-27: the Atlantic Council reported that Taipei has a potential defensive force of 450,000 troops. Using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders to successfully mount an invasion, China would need more than 1.2 million troops. While an air campaign could bring Taipei to its knees and then the peace table, such an effort would utterly destroy the island's infrastructure in the process  Economist, 2024-1-25: Amid this drama a new diplomatic battle is intensifying that risks setting the stage for war. China is changing the status quo militarily and on the diplomatic stage. That bodes ill for the future. As China sees it, the more countries that adopt its view of Taiwan, the more cover it has to turn words into action New York Times, 2024-1-24: Some believe — it appears this may be Trump's view — that T.S.M.C. is so valuable that it might tempt China to try to grab Taiwan, and then bring the world to its knees.  Given how difficult it is to move production, the best way to safeguard the manufacturing of chips may be to work harder than ever to deter and avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.  The Hill, 2024-1-23: according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario  Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force Washington Post, 2024-1-17:  The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away.  Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”.  Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises.  New York Times, 2024-1-13: With Taiwan's sense of self and China's expectations in conflict, Mr. Xi is not expected to sit idly by.     full text

 

 

Lai Ching-te won the presidency with 40 percent of the votes but his ruling DPP lost its majority in parliament. His Biggest Challenge Lies Ahead

media comments
New York Times, 2024-1-13 tensions are likely to rise; Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure”,“I'm afraid it's very dangerous”, 'noting that Mr. Xi's views on Taiwan were clear. That includes his insistence that force can be used if necessary. nytimes.com/2024/01/13/world/asia/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis.html Damien Cave
CNN, 2024-1-13 Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office  msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-voters-dismiss-china-warnings-and-hand-ruling-party-a-historic-third-consecutive-presidential-win/ar-AA1mUnBb  Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor
Washington Post, 2024-1-13 China's military pressure campaign has fueled concerns of miscalculation that could spark conflict and draw in the United States. Analysts are watching closely to see if Beijing responds to Lai's victory with large-scale drills that could send tensions spiraling washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/13/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te/  Christian Shepherd  Vic Chiang
XinHua (China), 2024-1-13 China:  the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island...the elections will not change the basic landscape and development trend of cross-Strait relations, will not alter the shared aspiration of compatriots across the Taiwan Strait to forge closer ties, and will not impede the inevitable trend of China's reunification.   english.news.cn/20240113/a669c1402683472ca4e420ca94fcd8df/c.html
Independent, 2024-1-14 Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te issues defiant message to China after historic election win...The DPP is often criticised for only focusing on efforts to counter the threat from China while having no solutions for social and economic problems that have been troubling the Taiwanese people news.yahoo.com/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-184055493.html
Euro News, 2024-1-13 China: Beijing wouldn't accept the election result as representing “the mainstream public opinion on the island,” without giving any evidence or justification.
TIME, 2024-1-13 ...those disaffected by the ruling DPP vote and wanting a less confrontational approach to cross-strait relations, certainly exists. The final result proved this, with over half the electorate voting for the alternatives to the DPP. But a majority for an approach or idea that doesn't translate into majority support for a party cuts no ice. msn.com/en-us/news/world/lai-ching-te-won-taiwans-presidency-but-his-biggest-challenge-lies-ahead/ar-AA1mV0Au   Kerry Brown
NHK (Japan), 2024-1-14 China noted that the results of the Saturday election reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion of Taiwan.
USA Today, 2024-1-13 The outcome of the vote will ultimately determine the nature of ties with China relative to the West and will have strong bearing on the state of play in the South China Sea
BBC, 2024-1-13 Taiwanese voters have chosen William Lai as their president in a historic election, cementing a path that is increasingly divergent from China.  bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920532  Tessa Wong
The Hill, 2024-1-13 Taiwan elects ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te as president in high-stakes race  Lauren Irwin news.yahoo.com/taiwan-elects-ruling-party-candidate-131754245.html
Reuters, 2024-1-13 US does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says
WSJ, 2024-1-13 Taiwan voters defy Beijing in electing new president
Vox, 2024-1-13 there is expectation among some China experts that China's response will be “assertive”...  it's likely to happen in the coming weeks or months, not in the next few days.“We're going to see a reaction from China; the question is, when and how,”'“Whereas five, 10, 15 years ago, it was fairly predictable — the kinds of things that Beijing would do. But I think it's increasingly difficult to predict what is going to happen and when it's likely to happen

 msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-taiwan-s-high-stakes-elections-china-is-the-loser/ar-AA1mVl3g  Ellen Ioanes

 

Washington Post, 2024-1-10:  increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States New York Times, 2024-1-9: Chinese officials have framed the race (presidential election) as a choice between peace and war. A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election.   Wall Street Journal , 2024-1-9:  The problem is that Beijing can't tolerate Taiwan's example of a thriving Chinese-speaking democracy in which voters settle political differences at the ballot box. If a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this will be why. BBC, 2024-1-9: Today, the DPP no longer talks about the need for formal independence and the KMT speaks of dialogue with Beijing, but sidesteps the subject of unification, or whether Taiwan is part of China. Both are now embracing Taiwan's peculiar "status quo"- it elects its own leaders, but it is not considered a country Economist, 2024-1-8: victory for the DPP is far from certain. The party once appealed to young voters, but after eight years in power it has a stuffy image. Wage growth has fallen behind inflation and house prices are high... fears of an energy-price crunch. Most importantly, it has become clear that China will not have formal contact with DPP governments.   full text

 

Fox News, 2024-1-6: The potential winner could further cement moves toward what could be called ‘de jure Taiwan independence.’ This will significantly increase the possibility of a war between the two sides; a war in which the U.S. will almost certainly be involved in Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window — if politicians are willing to seize it — to put the U.S. military deterrent on a firmer footing Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-5: a growing chorus of voices argue that continued support to Ukraine is detracting from the real threat—namely, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; Prematurely abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea...  The Guardian, 2024-1-5: The next president of Taiwan is likely to shape events less through proactive measures than his response to circumstances he cannot dictate: a crisis such as a military manoeuvre gone wrong, or more broadly, China’s internal politics Atlantic Council, 2024-1-3: Beijing's direct economic-electoral linkage ahead of the election may end up being a double-edged sword. If the purpose is to influence the election's outcome, then it could backfire Reuters, 2024-1-3: 'Hawkish' China military squeeze on Taiwan likely after election. If the DPP wins the presidency but loses its majority in parliament, that could also temper China's response given it would weaken the DPP's ability to pass legislation Fortune, 2024-1-2: opposition blame China tensions for pushing the chipmaker TSMC to invest overseas Wall Street Journal, 2023-12-29: Taiwanese politics has shifted decisively, and perhaps irrevocably, away from China. In Taipei, Lai paints a picture of a Taiwanese public far less preoccupied with Beijing’s designs than political leaders in the Western world. The KMT accused the DPP of underplaying the deterioration of cross-strait ties and the risk of war CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan NBC, 2023-12-26: Xi's private warning  on reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal    presidential  election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan. New York Post, 2023-12-26: Xi Jinping says China's ‘complete reunification’ with Taiwan will ‘surely’ happen New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-12-20: China distrusts Lai far more than Tsai.  China is all but certain to greet a Lai victory with intensified military, economic, and political pressure.     full text

 

 

Taiwan Presidential election debate 2023-12-30

VOA News , Washington Post, AP,   2023-12-30  Taiwan's presidential candidates expressed desire for peaceful relations with Beijing. Tensions with China have featured strongly in the presidential campaign. Lai Ching-te promised to help strengthen Taiwan's defense and economy if elected. Hou said he opposed Taiwan's independence but also a potential unification under China's “one country, two systems” framework. Ko Wen-je, referenced a quote by Antony Blinken, saying that “Taiwan and China will cooperate if they can cooperate, compete if there’s a need to compete, and confront each other if they must confront each other.”; my bottom line is that Taiwan must maintain its current democratic and free political system and way of life. voanews.com/a/taiwan-s-presidential-candidates-emphasize-peace-with-beijing/7418610.html 
Reuters (UK), 2023-12-31 China calls Taiwan president frontrunner a destroyer of peace,"His words were full of confrontational thinking," after he spoke at a presidential debate  the island's sovereignty and independence belong to its people,  the Republic of China and People's Republic of China "are not subordinate to each other". KMT's Hou has denounced Lai as an independence supporter. news.yahoo.com/china-calls-taiwan-president-frontrunner-012538807.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
DW (Germany),  2023-12-31 Presidential candidates debate in shadow of ChinaLai remained defiant, at one point insisting that, "The sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to the 23 million people in Taiwan. It does not belong to China, "I will not go backward like the Kuomintang and be willing to become a vassal of totalitarianism... There are so many uncertainties regarding their policies". msn.com/en-in/news/world/taiwan-presidential-candidates-debate-in-shadow-of-china/ar-AA1mfuFn
AFP (France),  2023-12-30 China ties dominate Taiwan presidential debateKo, whose small TPP has performed above expectations in Taiwan's dominant two-party landscape, called President Tsai's cross-strait policies "a mess". The results of which could determine Taipei's future ties with an increasingly bellicose China. msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-ties-dominate-taiwan-presidential-debate/ar-AA1meDRj
Reuters, 2023-12-30 The televised debate was dominated by arguments over China and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.Taiwan belongs to its people: presidential candidate"The current status quo is that the Taiwan Strait is on the brink of war. So, to maintain close ties with the United States while also making peace with China is the solution to the problem," Hou said news.yahoo.com/taiwan-belongs-people-presidential-candidate-131009794.html
The Guardian, 2023-12-30 All three presidential candidates have acknowledged the potential risks of Taiwan becoming the next conflict zone. They aim to convince voters that they are the most capable leaders who can ensure peace and stability across the Taiwan strait, for Beijing the priority is to ensure the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) is kicked out of office.  theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/30/taiwan-election-new-president-growing-threat-china  Helen Davidson
SKY News (Australia),  2023-12-31 the race has become more unpredictable. The stakes for Taiwan's future have never seemed more unsteady, in light of rising tensions with China. skynews.com.au/world-news/our-future-has-never-seemed-more-unsteady-what-taiwans-2024-presidential-race-means-for-the-islands-rapidly-deteriorating-relationship-with-china/news-story/fe83df822e798ea6452659ceab914849   Hilton Yip

 

 

 

 

 

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pic.  :
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22; No.3 at 2024-2-1

 

 

 

 

Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18: although China would respond to a Taiwan declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not ready to undertake such a complicated campaign; a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and intimidation, a low-risk approach, targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is gradually working.  Economist, 2023-12-13:  There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.   Reporters Without Borders (RSF) , 2023-12-13: Taiwan is a country that suffers from one of the lowest trust rates in the media among democracies (28%) and where the media community is often criticised for disregarding journalism ethics... journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of quality news reporting. The Conversation, 2023-12-11: While Taiwanese people are concerned about potential conflict - one poll finds more than 80% of Taiwanese people believe the China threat is worsening – prospects for peace and stability are also affecting the island’s international business and investment outlook. The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy -  but- Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections  The Guardian, 2023-12-9: Cracks are appearing in China's monolithic regime – and its leader might decide a military adventure will strengthen his grip on power Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan). New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election  Foreign Affairs, 2023-11-30: as the United States works with Taiwan to strengthen its security, it must avoid giving the impression that it is moving toward restoring formal diplomatic relations or a defense alliance with the island. Combined with a conditional and credible threat of a military response by the United States and Taiwan to the use of force, such assurances will help prevent a war.       full text

 

 

 

      

 

New York Post (2023-12-20):Xi told Biden he plans to take Taiwan — by any means necessary;  NBC (2023-12-20):Xi's private warning to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal presidential election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Business Insider (2023-12-20): Xi straight-up told Biden that China is going to take over Taiwan, report says. It could end in war;  Daily Mail (2023-12-20):  Top Republicans alarmed by 'beyond unnerving' report Xi warned Biden that China WILL reunify with Taiwan in blunt message

 

western media  Taiwan's presidential election -  could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly.   brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te.  brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27 Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28 China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan"  brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29 Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

 

  New York Times, 2023-11-26: Taiwan, a highly online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in the world for disinformation from foreign governments.  RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable effects”Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a political witch hunt, Taiwan's media ecosystem, with its diverse political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be misattributed to Chinese manipulation.        full text

 

Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 202,410 (world No.3) US$ 108,250
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 551,190 US$ 273,790
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023) HK$ 36,583 (about TWD147,204) TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14) about TWD 84,000 about TWD 43,000
Market Capitalization  (UDN, 2023-12-14) more than double of Taiwan's about USD 1.7 trillion
At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank.

 



 


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western media  Taiwan presidential election -  opposition alliance collapse
New York Times, 2023-11-24 even experienced observers baffled as to why the opposition parties would stage such a public rupture over who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket... , It really defies theories of coalition building.  Lai's party asserts Taiwan's distinctive identity and claims to nationhood, and has become closer to the United States.  China could respond by escalating menacing military activities around Taiwan, which sits roughly 100 miles off the Chinese coast.   brief
Economist, 2023-11-24 polls suggest the flurry of chaotic opposition negotiating has modestly bolstered both Mr Hou and Mr Ko. After eight years in power, the dpp is struggling especially with younger voters, who are suffering from high housing costs and low wages. Some also worry about a possible war with China.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24 There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai winsIt will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats...will impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China.   brief
BBC, 2023-11-24 Mr Lai is not much of a campaigner. His poll ratings have gradually sunk, from over 40% in the summer to barely touching 30% now.   brief
VOA, 2023-11-24 analysts say will be a referendum on China relations. Beijing said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-24 Lai's advantage is largely thanks to disarray in the opposition camp. He has consistently polled around or just above 30 percent.     A win is not guaranteed. Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai’s presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals and grumbling from Taiwanese businesses about lost trade with China;  Lev Nachman:This election is becoming about who voters think is the safest choice for Taiwan。” brief
Reuters, 2023-11-24 China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud,    potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power.
TIME, 2023-11-24 collapse of the alliance is likely to consolidate both the KMT’s and the TPP's vote base on the one hand, as intensified conflicts usually can promote vote base consolidation and unity,  wing voters who have no stable identification with either party will be less likely to vote for [either of] them.”
Wall Street Journal, 2023-11-24 China isn’t backing off TaiwanThe U.S. will wish it had deterred the crisis when faced with these grim choices; Far better to avoid this conflict than to fight it in any form.

 

 

 

 
  
   
 

pic.  : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-8, 2023-6-4, 2023-5-23, 5-21; No.3 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-5-2, 2023-3-26

 

 

 

 No.2  "review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2023-1-1,2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-20, 2022-11-15, 2022-11-6 ; No.1  "review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-25, 2021-9-29, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-15, 2021-8-5, 2021-7-24, 2021-7-9, 2021-7-4, 2021-6-22, 2021-6-15, 2021-5-31, 2021-5-1, 2020-12-20   ;   No.2 at 2022-8-12, 2022-7-21,  2022-5-25, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-12, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-25, 2021-9-19; No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google,  2022-5-25; "Taiwan reviews" among top ranks on US Google, 2022-08-23, 2022-08-24; No.3"review Taiwan" on Google, 2022-9-30, 2022-9-23; No.4 "Taiwan reviews" on Google, 2023-4-30

 


pic.  : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-3, 2023-6-
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pic.  : No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-10, 2023-7-8

 

 


 

 

    Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi's rhetoric indicates he's getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome.   FoxNews, 2023-11-16: Xi underscored that this (Taiwan) was the biggest, most potentially dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations Biden again calls Xi a 'DICTATOR' as china vows to be 'UNSTOPPABLE' in retaking Taiwan   The Hill, 2023-11-16: Biden, Xi reset relationship but without a ‘breakthrough’   New Yorker, 2023-11-14: The war in Gaza, along with ongoing U.S. support of Ukraine, has prompted concern in some quarters that Taiwan could be left dangerously vulnerable   Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion   Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the DPP's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait       full text

 

media Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15 Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15 Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Bidenfrom Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16 The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict

 

 

   Bloomberg, 2023-11-10: The US's top general said he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily   BBC, 2023-11-9:Beijing's espionage strategy has intensified and expanded beyond elite military circles. Taiwan did not have a robust system for restricting access to classified information until recently.   Economist, 2023-11-6: Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China; despite huge advances in many areas, it still does not have the troops, equipment, experience, command structures or logistics necessary to be confident of victory in a war over Taiwan.   BBC, 2023-11-6:  in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery  -  Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine. There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan   Economist, 2023-10-31: Taiwan's chips give the world an economic reason to protect the island from a Chinese invasion. But now America and China are competing to control the supply of these sophisticated chips. And that puts Taiwan in the middle of the two superpowers   Washington Post, 2023-10-31: China's bellicosity against Taiwan has ratcheted up. China now regularly makes military feints at Taiwan with naval and aerial incursions.   New York Times, 2023-10-29: Xi may decide to strike if he begins to feel that Taiwan is slipping further from his grasp, especially if the United States continues to bolster Taiwan's military and its own forces in the region. Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities    Economist, 2023-10-26: In 2019 Xi Jinping, China's president, gave a speech linking the 1992 consensus with the mainland's one-China principle and proposed a “one country, two systems” formula for incorporating Taiwan. That speech “set the tone” for a more assertive Chinese policy on Taiwan   Nikkei Asian Review, 2023-10-27: Taiwan still invests in conventional weapons at the expense of asymmetric capabilities, and it's "not clear whether the government has embraced asymmetric warfighting concepts   New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally.   Newsweek, 2023-10-20: Pentagon Lists Six Possible Causes of China-Taiwan War: 1.  Formal Declaration of Independence 2. Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence 3. "internal unrest" in Taiwan 4. Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons 5. Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification 6. Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs   New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence.   BBC, 2023-10-16: A spooked and lonely Taiwan looks for new friends. Perhaps the most fertile ground for making new friends is in the young democracies of Eastern Europe Increasingly Taipei relied on its chequebook to hold on to a dwindling list of allies, mainly in the form of aid and investment.    full text

 

Taiwan's presidential election

Newsweek, 2023-10-26 Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says
Economist, 2023-10-26 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. KMT and TPP would need to work out an acceptable distribution of cabinet members. If they can fix these issues over the next month, Taiwan could be in for a very tight race.
Nikkei Asian Review Taiwan's election may open 'window' for better China ties. International Crisis Group warns that conflict risks are rising
Australia Financial Review, 2023-10-26 voters are torn in Taiwan - Inflation, housing affordability, energy prices and scandals are on the mind of the electorate. As well as whether China will invade, of course.
Reuters, 2023-10-26 Foxconn founder Terry Gou lies low in Taiwan election as China tax probe reverberates

 

  AP, Washington Post, 2023-10-12:  the Hamas-Israel war “blew up so suddenly,” prompting Taiwan to up its ability to forecast possible threats. Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine has also raised concerns that China may act against Taiwan, possibly with Moscow's backing   Newsweek,  2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously   VOA News,  2023-10-13: some Taiwanese citizens worry China could see an opportunity to attack Taiwan if Washington were to be dragged into the conflict in the Middle East. Lev Nachman said a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming days is unlikely.    AP, Reuters, 2023-10-10: Taiwan seeks 'peaceful coexistence' with China, president says, Differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved peacefully, and maintaining the status quo is "critical" to ensuring peace   BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China.  Washington Examiner, 2023-10-5: Were Taipei truly serious about deterring and defeating a PLA attack, it would be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defense   VOA, 2023-10-5: US warns China cost for blockading Taiwan to be 'Very High'   CNN, 2023-10-3: Taiwan gears up for its presidential election in January, with the island's foreign policy and relations with China a central issue in the race alongside more bread and butter issues like the cost of living and stagnant wages    American Spectator, 2023-10-3:  when the leaders of authoritarian China decide whether to attack Taiwan, their top consideration is not economics but politics.   The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications  AP, 2023-10-3:  a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity.  full text