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Taiwan reviews by international and local organizations:
Reviews on
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★ brief intro. Taiwan | ★ Taiwan soft power | ★ Taiwan military | ★ Taiwan economy |
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◆ Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan). ◆ New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-11-30: as the United States works with Taiwan to strengthen its security, it must avoid giving the impression that it is moving toward restoring formal diplomatic relations or a defense alliance with the island. Combined with a conditional and credible threat of a military response by the United States and Taiwan to the use of force, such assurances will help prevent a war.
western media | ♣ Taiwan's presidential election - could reignite U.S.-China tensions |
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 | Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly. brief |
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 | Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te. brief |
CNBC, 2023-11-27 | Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.” The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly. brief |
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 | an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief |
Reuters, 2023-11-28 | China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan" brief |
SCMP, 2023-11-29 | Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war' |
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New York Times, 2023-11-26:
Taiwan, a highly
online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in
the world for disinformation from foreign governments.
RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable effects”.
Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a
political witch hunt, Taiwan's media
ecosystem, with its diverse
political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be
misattributed to Chinese manipulation.
western media | ♣ Taiwan presidential election - opposition alliance collapse |
New York Times, 2023-11-24 | even experienced observers baffled as to why the opposition parties would stage such a public rupture over who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket... , It really defies theories of coalition building. Lai's party asserts Taiwan's distinctive identity and claims to nationhood, and has become closer to the United States. China could respond by escalating menacing military activities around Taiwan, which sits roughly 100 miles off the Chinese coast. brief |
Economist, 2023-11-24 | polls suggest the flurry of chaotic opposition negotiating has modestly bolstered both Mr Hou and Mr Ko. After eight years in power, the dpp is struggling especially with younger voters, who are suffering from high housing costs and low wages. Some also worry about a possible war with China. brief |
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24 | There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai wins. It will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats...will impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China. brief |
BBC, 2023-11-24 | Mr Lai is not much of a campaigner. His poll ratings have gradually sunk, from over 40% in the summer to barely touching 30% now. brief |
VOA, 2023-11-24 | analysts say will be a referendum on China relations. Beijing said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” brief |
Washington Post, 2023-11-24 | Lai's advantage is largely thanks to disarray in the opposition camp. He has consistently polled around or just above 30 percent. A win is not guaranteed. Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai’s presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals and grumbling from Taiwanese businesses about lost trade with China; Lev Nachman:“This election is becoming about who voters think is the safest choice for Taiwan。” brief |
Reuters, 2023-11-24 | China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud, potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power. |
TIME, 2023-11-24 | collapse of the alliance is likely to consolidate both the KMT’s and the TPP's vote base on the one hand, as intensified conflicts usually can promote vote base consolidation and unity, wing voters who have no stable identification with either party will be less likely to vote for [either of] them.” |
Wall Street Journal, 2023-11-24 | China isn’t backing off Taiwan. The U.S. will wish it had deterred the crisis when faced with these grim choices; Far better to avoid this conflict than to fight it in any form. |
◆ Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi's rhetoric indicates he's getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome. ◆ FoxNews, 2023-11-16: Xi underscored that this (Taiwan) was the biggest, most potentially dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations. Biden again calls Xi a 'DICTATOR' as china vows to be 'UNSTOPPABLE' in retaking Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-11-16: Biden, Xi reset relationship but without a ‘breakthrough’ ◆ New Yorker, 2023-11-14: The war in Gaza, along with ongoing U.S. support of Ukraine, has prompted concern in some quarters that Taiwan could be left dangerously vulnerable ◆ Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion ◆ Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the DPP's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait full text
media | Biden-Xi meeting |
USA Today, 2023-11-15 | Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution |
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot. |
France 24, 2023-11-15 | Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Biden,from Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan |
New York Times, 2023-11-16 | The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict |
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-12-1, 2023-10-14, 2023-10-6, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-13, 2023-9-6, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-25, 2023-8-21, 2023-8-8, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-14, 2023-7-10, 2023-7-8; No.2 at 2023-11-1
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pic.
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This websites-group was
ranked No.1
"review Taiwan" on Bing,
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6-21-2020,
5-19-2020, 5-13-2020, 4-23-2020, 2-2-2020,
1-17-2020, 12-31-2019, 12-12-2019
pic. : This websites-group was ranked No.1 "review Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2023-11-29, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-6, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-25, 2023-8-8, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-14, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-17, 2023-6-13, 2023-5-23, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-4-15, 2023-3-31, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-1, 2022-10-23, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-16, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-24, 2022-8-18, 2022-8-1,2022-7-29, 2022-7-21, 2022-7-4, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-14, 2022-6-2, 2022-5-26, 2022-5-24, 2022-4-30, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-2-3, 2022-1-22, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-21, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-29; No.2 "review Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2023-3-20
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◆ Bloomberg, 2023-11-10: The US's top general said he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily ◆ BBC, 2023-11-9:Beijing's espionage strategy has intensified and expanded beyond elite military circles. Taiwan did not have a robust system for restricting access to classified information until recently. ◆ Economist, 2023-11-6: Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China; despite huge advances in many areas, it still does not have the troops, equipment, experience, command structures or logistics necessary to be confident of victory in a war over Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2023-11-6: in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery - Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine. There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan ◆ Economist, 2023-10-31: Taiwan's chips give the world an economic reason to protect the island from a Chinese invasion. But now America and China are competing to control the supply of these sophisticated chips. And that puts Taiwan in the middle of the two superpowers ◆ Washington Post, 2023-10-31: China's bellicosity against Taiwan has ratcheted up. China now regularly makes military feints at Taiwan with naval and aerial incursions. ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-29: Xi may decide to strike if he begins to feel that Taiwan is slipping further from his grasp, especially if the United States continues to bolster Taiwan's military and its own forces in the region. Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities ◆ Economist, 2023-10-26: In 2019 Xi Jinping, China's president, gave a speech linking the 1992 consensus with the mainland's one-China principle and proposed a “one country, two systems” formula for incorporating Taiwan. That speech “set the tone” for a more assertive Chinese policy on Taiwan ◆ Nikkei Asian Review, 2023-10-27: Taiwan still invests in conventional weapons at the expense of asymmetric capabilities, and it's "not clear whether the government has embraced asymmetric warfighting concepts ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally. ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-20: Pentagon Lists Six Possible Causes of China-Taiwan War: 1. Formal Declaration of Independence 2. Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence 3. "internal unrest" in Taiwan 4. Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons 5. Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification 6. Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs ◆ New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence. ◆ BBC, 2023-10-16: A spooked and lonely Taiwan looks for new friends. Perhaps the most fertile ground for making new friends is in the young democracies of Eastern Europe Increasingly Taipei relied on its chequebook to hold on to a dwindling list of allies, mainly in the form of aid and investment. full text
♣ Taiwan's presidential election |
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Newsweek, 2023-10-26 | Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says |
Economist, 2023-10-26 | 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. 。KMT and TPP would need to work out an acceptable distribution of cabinet members. If they can fix these issues over the next month, Taiwan could be in for a very tight race. |
Nikkei Asian Review | Taiwan's election may open 'window' for better China ties. International Crisis Group warns that conflict risks are rising |
Australia Financial Review, 2023-10-26 | voters are torn in Taiwan - Inflation, housing affordability, energy prices and scandals are on the mind of the electorate. As well as whether China will invade, of course. |
Reuters, 2023-10-26 | Foxconn founder Terry Gou lies low in Taiwan election as China tax probe reverberates |
◆ AP, Washington Post, 2023-10-12: the Hamas-Israel war “blew up so suddenly,” prompting Taiwan to up its ability to forecast possible threats. Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine has also raised concerns that China may act against Taiwan, possibly with Moscow's backing ◆ Newsweek, 2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously ◆ VOA News, 2023-10-13: some Taiwanese citizens worry China could see an opportunity to attack Taiwan if Washington were to be dragged into the conflict in the Middle East. Lev Nachman said a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming days is unlikely. ◆ AP, Reuters, 2023-10-10: Taiwan seeks 'peaceful coexistence' with China, president says, Differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved peacefully, and maintaining the status quo is "critical" to ensuring peace ◆ BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2023-10-5: Were Taipei truly serious about deterring and defeating a PLA attack, it would be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defense ◆ VOA, 2023-10-5: US warns China cost for blockading Taiwan to be 'Very High' ◆ CNN, 2023-10-3: Taiwan gears up for its presidential election in January, with the island's foreign policy and relations with China a central issue in the race alongside more bread and butter issues like the cost of living and stagnant wages ◆ American Spectator, 2023-10-3: when the leaders of authoritarian China decide whether to attack Taiwan, their top consideration is not economics but politics. ◆ The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications ◆ AP, 2023-10-3: a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity. full text
◆ Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing |
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NewsWeek, 2023-9-29 | A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in. Policy experts in the U.S. have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so。 |
CNN, 2023-9-28 | While the Taiwan Strait might be too shallow for submarines to operate in, the vessels could be most useful when deployed to target Chinese warships in the Bashi channel – which separates Taiwan from the Philippines – and the waters between Taiwan and Japan’s westernmost islands. China has planned for a major naval engagement with the US outside the first island chain, around the Philippine Sea”. |
BBC, 2023-9-28 | National University of Singapore Drew Thompson: the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China...The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role... |
Defense News, 2023-9-29 | Reuters has also reported that that Taiwan had recruited engineers and retired submariners from the U.S., U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, Spain and Canada to work on the program |
Forbes, 2023-9-28 | In CSIS's war games, Chinese escorts, aircraft and submarines usually sank around a fifth of the deployed subs every three or four days throughout the weekslong war. In the end, perhaps a dozen or more subs lay wrecked at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, tombs for thousands of submariners. |
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30 | Some see the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program as a poor use of scarce defense resources on a prestige project ; The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects. |
pic. : This websites-group was ranked No.1 "review Taiwan" on Yandex, 2023-9-13, 2023-9-6, 2023-9-1; No.3 at 2023-11-1
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News: ◆ TIME, 2023-9-28: If China's military responds to a Lai (Ching-te) victory in January by challenging Taiwanese defenses much closer to the island's shores,...Beijing and Washington could find themselves managing a crisis neither side really wants but can't avoid ◆ Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,... the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc. ◆ The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute warns that the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and lethal set of capabilities than it does now. China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained. full text
◆ New York post, 2023-9-19: China would have to do a combined amphibious and airborne air assault operation, which is an incredibly complicated joint operation to be able to do ◆ Reuters, 2023-9-19: Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says ◆ New York Times, 2023-9-18: China sends record number of military planes near Taiwan. China is also testing and eroding the island's vigilance, seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's military might. Taiwan expert: The sorties appeared to signal “China's dissatisfaction with the recent developments in strengthening military and economic and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States” ◆ Financial Times, 2023-9-15: opinion polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's assurances. Taiwan opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments, Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more explicit backing from Washington. ◆ Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-9-14: Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy given the inevitable global backlash. The capital city can reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA forces, every Taiwan citizen should be a resistance member : Preparing for a Chinese occupation ◆ Bloomberg,2023-9-12: a separate report to lawmakers: Taiwan's Defense Ministry warned that China's ruling Communist Party may “push forward the process of solving the Taiwan issue” during President Xi Jinping’s third term, which runs to 2027. ◆ Military, 2023-9-13: By 37% to 22%, Americans on a bipartisan basis believe we should militarily protect Taiwan ◆ Associated Press, 2023-9-9: The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping territorial claims ◆ Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China. Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard. ◆ CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations full text
China's economic crisis news.yahoo.com/china-economic-woes-could-raise-220300203.html Michael Martina businessinsider.com/joe-biden-china-unlikely-invade-taiwan-economy-property-crisis-g20-2023-9 Huileng Tan |
◆ Reuters, 2023-9-12 : the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China says China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan |
◆ Washington Examiner, Insider, 2023-9-11: Biden says China is unlikely to invade Taiwan now because Beijing just too busy with its own economic crisis |
News: ◆ Reuters, 2023-8-31: The outcome of the closely watched January 2024 vote will set the tone for Taipei's tumultuous relationship with Beijing ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30: Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure. full text
◆ Taiwanese Divided on US Military Sales / VOA News , 2023-9-6 |
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66.5% of the respondents support U.S.
military sales to Taiwan ♦ 43.1% of respondents think U.S. military sales to Taiwan will further increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Whereas 37.8% think U.S. military sales can help maintain peace between China and Taiwan ♦ Taiwan rarely has the autonomy to decide what types of weapons it wants to purchase from the U.S. Rather, the deliverables often seem to have been “decided” for Taiwan ♦ there are often deeper political meanings behind U.S. military sales to Taiwan. These military sales should be conducted more discreetly, rather than publicly announcing these programs ♦ the U.S. provides more offensive weapons for Taiwan through military sales, they believe it increases the risks of prompting a potential Chinese military attack on Taiwan. voanews.com/a/taiwanese-divided-on-us-military-sales-amid-growing-chinese-threats/7256298.htm |
◆ BBC, 2023-8-29 : Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate. Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path. full text
Using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program to transfer military aid to Taiwan will likely infuriate China. |
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USA | China |
♣ CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations
♣ Bloomberg
(2023-8-31): The Foreign Military Financing mechanism covers
international organizations as well as nations |
♣ The Hill (2023-9-1): China says it 'deplores' US military transfer to Taiwan
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◆ Reuters, 2023-8-25: Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft entering Taiwan's "response" zone, Taiwan could not judge whether China's drills had formally ended (Reuters, 2023-8-26: Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone, which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.) ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23: full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25: analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. ◆ TIME, 2023-8-21 : China stops importing Taiwan's mangoes after Beijing announced naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S., having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an interview with Bloomberg ◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-20: The election of a third consecutive DPP administration would confirm that Beijing's attempts to bring Taiwan under its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing. Although Lai is currently leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top contenders chose one to rally around ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-19: In warning to Taiwan, China Announces joint air and sea drills, so far, China's response after Mr. Lai's visit appears more muted than it was in April, or last August, Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's favor by pushing more support to his party in presidential election ◆ Chicago Tribune, 2023-8-14: As tensions build between China and Taiwan, tensions continue to ratchet up between Beijing and Washington, with both sides wanting to appear tough to deter the other from taking military action. The result, however, is making war more likely, not less. The United States must do something to lower tensions to maintain the peace while also retaining the ability to defend our interests full text
US Congress
CRS Report, 2023-8-24 -
Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
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♣
Civil military relations are
strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s
energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems
are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is
insufficient, ... Taiwan's
military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.
It is not clear what costs—in terms of
economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's
people would be willing or able to bear
... ♣ persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack. If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond ♣ many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack. observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan. |
◆ Bloomberg, 2023-8-14: Taiwan's Election Is All About War... it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems. A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over" full text
◆ Lai Ching-te 'stopover' |
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New York Times (2023-8-14 news brief, 2023-8-12) | A Taiwanese presidential contender walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/asia/taiwan-us-china-lai-ching-te.html |
NPR (2023-8-12) | Taiwan's Vice President is stopping by the U.S. this week, under China's watchful eye,U.S officials pointedly refer to Lai's trip as a transit, meaning a stop for logistical, rather than political, purposes. For Lai, this trip is especially to break out of some of the suspicions the U.S. may have about him and prove he can engage with the U.S.。 |
DW (2023-8-12) | Beijing labeled Lai — a separatist and a "troublemaker." |
BBC ( 2023-8-14) | China accused Washington of engaging Taiwan in political activities under the guise of a stopover. Mr Lai's visit comes at a low point in US-China relations, with Taiwan emerging as the biggest flashpoint. Mr Lai has previously called himself - to Beijing's displeasure - a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence". bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66495368?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA) Derek Cai |
France 24 ( 2023-8-14) | China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington |
CNN (2023-8-13) | China calls him a “troublemaker through and through.”. China deplores and strongly condemns the US decision to arrange the so-called ‘stopover'. |
AFP (2023-8-13) |
China on Sunday vowed "resolute
and forceful measures" over a weekend trip by Taiwan Vice President
William Lai to the United States Lai has been far more outspoken about independence than Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, to whom Beijing is already hostile as she refuses to accept its view that Taiwan is a part of China. news.yahoo.com/china-vows-forceful-response-over-035750831.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
Wall Street Journal (2023-8-12) | China's leaders have more to think about as they weigh a response. While it serves Beijing's interests to have better relations with Washington at this moment,” that doesn't mean the Chinese leadership would shy from taking strong action on Taiwan, if they deem it necessary msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-visit-by-taiwan-vice-president-puts-china-in-a-bind/ar-AA1fbCxI Chun Han Wong, Joyu Wang, Charles Hutzler |
VOA (2023-8-11) | experts think Beijing will launch a military response to Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., but the scale will depend on how "official-looking" his trip is. "This includes who he meets with, what he says, and how public those meetings are" ... any reaction deemed too provocative could help increase Lai's chance of winning the election. However, she added that Beijing also worries about sending the wrong signal if its responses are deemed too weak. voanews.com/a/analysts-us-taipei-aim-to-keep-taiwan-vp-transit-stops-low-key-/7220905.html |
◆ European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8: the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts — is under a shadow. This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct ◆ JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression." ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will not not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?" ◆ The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: A report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems". full text
Pew
Research, 2023-8-11: 28-48, Taiwan seen more favorably than not across
24 countries |
||
unfavorable | favorable | |
US | 30 | 65 |
UK | 25 | 60 |
Nederland | 35 | 52 |
Germany | 28 | 50 |
France | 26 | 49 |
Japan | 14 | 82 |
S. Korea | 19 | 77 |
Australia | 27 | 71 |
India | 43 | 37 |
Greece 30-28, Hungary 25-25, Spain 37-38, S Africa 40-23, Brazil 34-29, 24-country median 28-48 |
◆ Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen. ◆ Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year." , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper full text
#MeToo in Taiwan |
|
◆ New York Times, 2023-7-27 | our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html |
◆ Reuters, 2023-7-28 | Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence. victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships. .reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/ Sarah Wu |
◆ The coming China war over Taiwan - Fox News, 2023-7-28 |
♦
The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place.
♦ a critical question – is Taiwan
committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is
no. |
◆ What would be the signs that a PLA invasion is in the planning ? |
♦
Economist, 2023-7-27: China would want to secure adequate
supplies of commodities, namely energy ( coal, gas, oil - one of the
best indicators ), food and metals (unusual metal-buying patterns,
export controls on rare-earth metals ) and to
reduce the country's dependence on the dollar.
China might
move its foreign-exchange reserves out of dollars and euros and into
assets such as gold,
and probably tighten its capital controls,
they also might freeze all foreign funds in China,
etc
economist.com/china/2023/07/27/could-economic-indicators-signal-chinas-intent-to-go-to-war ♦ National Interest , 2022-11-21: there would be reliable indications, including surging production of various missiles, rockets, and key munitions, China would take visible steps to insulate its economy, military, and key industries from disruptions and sanctions and would start preparing the population psychologically for the cost of the war.... They might take a strategic advantage, such as by catching the rest of the world off-guard, capitalizing on the chaos and distraction in other countries. nationalinterest.org/feature/china’s-new-politburo-has-taiwan-its-crosshairs-205909 ♦ Japan Times, 2022-10-18: some of indications could be a mix of both short- and long-term economic steps to try and insulate the Chinese economy from external vulnerabilities and to minimize China's dependency on the world while maximizing the world's dependency on China. Short-term economic indicators are more likely to signal Beijing’s intent. These could include a number of abrupt steps such as freezing foreign financial assets within China, quickly repatriating Chinese assets held abroad, a surge in stockpiling emergency supplies such as medicine or key technology inputs and a suspension of key exports such as critical minerals, refined petroleum products or food. japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/10/18/asia-pacific/signs-china-invasion-taiwan/ |
◆ BBC, 2023-7-27: many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-26: Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-24: so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself. Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. ◆ VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15: Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia. But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan' ◆ National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen: If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan. ◆ Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17: the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine ◆ National Interest, 2023-7-15: With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later... it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation ◆ CNN, 2023-7-14: it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island. The longer the delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too slim to achieve success if its forces move too late ◆ Reuters, 2023-7-14: US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan in the coming years. Milley said the United States was looking at whether it needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the Asia Pacific. ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws. "Our gender culture still hasn't caught up with the laws", said a DPP legislator , "Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming." ◆ West Point, Modern War Institute, 2023-7-11: <White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan> implicitly suggests that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is essentially a land war... systems (a range of cyber fires, electromagnetic attack, and long-range precision missile systems...) are the primary means to achieve decisive advantage. full text
◆ CNN, 2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow. ◆ Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge ◆ The Guardian, 2023-7-9: while the war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000) of 2 million reservists are thought to be combat-ready... the drills lack urban warfare or modern weaponry instruction. ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel. The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely. While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production acts as a brake to hostilities by raising the cost to China of using force, it does not diminish China’s desire to gain control over Taiwan and is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield". ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,... ◆ le Monde, 2023-7-5: many Hong Kongers (pro-democracy protesters) struggle to obtain Taiwan visas and feel unsafe ◆ RAND, Jun. 2023: Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China... would allow it to eventually subjugate the island. ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29: if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed. ◆ CSIS.org, 2023-6-29: Fundamentally, both the August and April exercises were suggestive of an “encirclement” of Taiwan using PLA Navy forces; the April exercises were no less significant than those in August. ◆ AFP, Moscow Times, 2023-6-28:Taiwan sighted two Russian frigates sailing off its eastern coast. The presence of Russian warships is unusual, Interfax reported the warships were performing tasks as part of a long-range sea crossing, which included "a simulated naval battle full text
News: ◆ TIME, 2023-6-26: Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their operations away from China ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-26: Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's cooperation against Lai Ching-te) ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-26: 56% Americans would support an increase in U.S. military presence as a way to discourage China from invading Taiwan and 30% indicated they would oppose such a move, according to the results of a Reagan Institute poll ◆ Reuters, 2023-6-24: Taiwan says Chinese air force approached close to island's coast ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-6-23: The United States needs to bolster deterrence in the Taiwan Strait without provoking China. A heavy-handed U.S. approach could come with a heavy cost. Avoiding conflict will take great diplomatic nuance. ◆ Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21: China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. G7 responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support economic countermeasures against China and opt for a de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion would likely be divided ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023: If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific ◆ Economist, 2023-6-19: Chinese officials pay much attention to online opinion. When it comes to a war with Taiwan, many Chinese urge caution, even some ardent nationalists; according to a recent paper, even if China were to decide to go to war by next January, only 55% said that would be acceptable ◆ FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ; Over the last year, the U.S. and China saw more than $700 billion in trade which according to Blinken constituted the highest level between the two countries on record. He reiterated that it would be "disastrous" for the U.S. to decouple and stop all trade and investment with China. ◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction. For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ... ◆ CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait full text
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-21: Biden calls Xi a dictator, jeopardizing US-China thaw |
◆
USA Today,
2023-6-21: China threatens to
undermine his administration's efforts to "thaw" intensifying relations.
◆ Reuters, 2023-6-21: expert at Fudan University: it would not erase what Blinken had achieved on his China visit. |
◆
National
Interest, 2023-6-15:
If China launches an invasion
without first destroying America's military assets in
the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches
a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will
experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States
◆
L.A.
Times,
2023-6-13:
Taiwan's
relationship with China is one of the most contentious and
defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the
January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status
quo, politicians are
deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own
parties.
National Interest, 2023-6-20
nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
|
||||
overall | DPP | KMT | TPP | |
not at all confident | 26.61% | 3.23% | 55.63% | 32.12% |
not very confident | 37.92 | 23.12 | 29.38 | 48.91 |
fairly | 27.96 | 48.92 | 12.50 | 16.79 |
very confident | 7.51 | 24.73 | 2.50 | 2.19 |
#MeToo in Taiwan |
|
◆ CNN, 2023-6-10 | The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment. Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else. Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles, will it be the real #MeToo moment. edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html |
◆ The Guardian, 2023-6-8 | The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed. theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk |
◆ Washington Post, 2023-6-7 | The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang. people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment. msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin |
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7 | Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party. wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang Wenxin Fan |
◆ ABC Australia, 2023-6-24 |
Young
women, since they were children, they are already taught to protect
themselves, or try to tolerate this kind of inconvenience
(accept harassment). Sexual harassment
and sexual assault are prevalent in all kinds of power relationships.
The impact of the
Netflix
show《
Wave Makers
(造浪者)》has
been huge, and it resonated with young Taiwanese women, s |
◆ SCMP, 2023-6-11 | NTU prof. Tso Chen-dong: the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights. DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights. scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3223609/wave-metoo-cases-threatens-engulf-taiwans-ruling-democratic-progressive-party Lawance Chung |
economist /
The world's most liveable cities in 2023
|
|
score |
cities in Asia |
90+ | Melbourne, Sydney, Aucland, Adelaide, Osaka(Japan), Perth, Tokyo(Japan), Brisbane, Wellington, Singapore |
80-90 | Seoul(Korea), Hong Kong(Chn), Busan(Korea), Taipei (Taiwan), Kaohsiung, Taichung |
60-80 | Noumea, Nantong, SuZhou, Beijing, ShenYang, Shanghai, etc |
top 5 cities:
Vienna 98.4, Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney,
Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96 Score out of 100* five categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education and infrastructure. |
pic. : No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-1, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-8, 2023-6-4, 2023-5-23, 5-21; No.3 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-5-2, 2023-3-26
No.2 "review Taiwan" on US Google, 2023-1-1,2022-12-24, 2022-12-17, 2022-11-29, 2022-11-20, 2022-11-15, 2022-11-6 ; No.1 "review Taiwan" on US Google, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-25, 2021-9-29, 2021-9-23, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-15, 2021-8-5, 2021-7-24, 2021-7-9, 2021-7-4, 2021-6-22, 2021-6-15, 2021-5-31, 2021-5-1, 2020-12-20 ; No.2 at 2022-8-12, 2022-7-21, 2022-5-25, 2022-4-30, 2022-3-21, 2022-3-12, 2022-2-22, 2022-2-10, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-3, 2021-12-27, 2021-12-10, 2021-12-4, 2021-11-12, 2021-10-25, 2021-9-19; No.2 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2022-5-25; "Taiwan reviews" among top ranks on US Google, 2022-08-23, 2022-08-24; No.3"review Taiwan" on Google, 2022-9-30, 2022-9-23; No.4 "Taiwan reviews" on Google, 2023-4-30
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan reviews" on US Google, 2023-7-10, 2023-7-8 pic. : No.1 "review Taiwan" on Swisscows of Switzerland, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-22
|
News: ◆ USNI, 2023-6-7: Taiwan has not been transparent about how many missiles it can make. there are "rumors about slow production" ... Taipei has to decide whether to continue dividing resources across two different strategies - maintaining a traditional naval force that could leave it open to invasion or pursuing an asymmetric one ◆ Sydney Morning Herald, 2023-6-7: Anthony Albanese said Australia's goal was “not to prepare for war but to prevent it”. The more willing we are to support Taiwan's security, the less likely it is we would ever need to fight for Taiwan ◆ CNN, 2023-6-2: the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report: there is no evidence the war in Ukraine has “altered Chinese thinking on the timescale or methodology” for a possible attack on Taiwan. ◆ Economist, 2023-5-31: Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-31: Why are tensions so high? China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979. ◆ IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way full text
Elbridge Colby, a leading voice for a new “pivot to Asia.” | John Walters, Hudson Institute CEO |
He wants to see the U.S. concentrate efforts on deterring war in the Pacific, even if that means abandoning European interests.。 the U.S. simply does not have the capability for building the alliance system Walters envisions or supplying it with the requisite arms and ammunition to fight wars with two great powers at once; It will take well into the 2030s before we're in much better shape; before Chinese leader Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan, the U.S. should put in place immediate measures to attack the key segments of that CCP economic and military power。 | “Ukraine Is No Distraction From Asia.”; the US can fend off Russian and Chinese revanchism simultaneously; aggression must be met by strong American alliances with key countries, including both Taiwan and Ukraine; the kinds of weapons needed in Ukraine and Taiwan are different enough that supplying one will not substantially affect the other; most Republicans on Capitol Hill remain strong supporters of Ukraine. Ukraine will help generate (US) domestic resolve to fight for Taiwan. |
washingtonexaminer.com/news/inside-right-debate-ukraine-taiwan 2023-6-1 |
◆ The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. ◆ Reuters, 2023-5-27: Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-29: Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-24: Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war; The strategy seems to be working. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17 : faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China. ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-17: Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-11: Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-5-9: Threatening to destroy TSMC is unnecessary and would also help China sow distrust among Taiwanese people toward the US and undermine Taiwan's will to resist Chinese aggression...China's determination to achieve reunification would be just as strong if Taiwan were a poor, agrarian society ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11: the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent. — deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. ◆ DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11: Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house” full text
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◆ Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10: Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism ◆ Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade ◆ Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said ◆ le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is ◆ The Nation, 2023-4-26: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it. ◆ AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering. Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan. ◆ CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle ◆ Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-15: Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting. ◆ The Guardian, 2023-4-14: German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆ TIME, 2023-4-12: Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades ◆ New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island. ◆ BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2023-4-6: Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-5: Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China ◆ Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The DPP has criticised KMT's "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict ◆ Taiwan is losing its friends. Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners ◆ AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington ◆ Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23: to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”◆ Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter ◆ full text
Taiwan's President is expected to meet Speaker McCarthy, Beijing will decide how strongly it wants to respond |
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New York Times, 2023-3-29 | President Tsai Ing-wen risks a show of force from Beijing。 Beijing just lured Honduras to abandon diplomatic ties with Taipei in what many saw as pre-emptive punishment for her trip. nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/asia/taiwan-president-us-china.html |
Bloomberg, 2023-3-29 | Tsai is unlikely to use this moment to “push boundaries" , partly to avoid "accusations of being provocative by Taiwanese voters.". Any Tsai meeting with McCarthy "puts the ball in Beijing's court" news.yahoo.com/china-warns-taiwan-leader-mccarthy-031352507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall |
Washington Post, 2023-3-29 | When Honduras switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last week, it put the diplomatic future of Taiwan in a more precarious position washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/honduras-taiwan-china-allies-relations/ |
Newsweek, 2023-3-31 | "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing,""At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution." msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-two-taiwan-trips-mean-for-fate-of-most-dangerous-us-china-issue/ar-AA19komh Tom O'Connor |
Bloomberg, 2023-3-31 | The expected California meeting with McCarthy was considered a concession: At the request of the Taiwanese government, McCarthy decided to put off a potential trip to Taiwan until after presidential elections next year and instead host Taiwan’s leader on US soil. msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-tries-to-keep-china-calm-while-taiwans-tsai-visits-the-us/ar-AA19il7y Jenny Leonard and Cindy Wang |
L.A. Times, 2023-3-31 | On a sensitive U.S. visit, Taiwan's leader stresses defense and democracy msn.com/en-us/news/world/on-a-sensitive-u-s-visit-taiwan-s-leader-stresses-defense-and-democracy/ar-AA19j0p0 ELLEN KNICKMEYER, MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN and LISA MASCARO |
The Guardian, 2023-3-28 | (ex president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington. Taiwan caught between superpowers as rival leaders visit China and US theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/taiwan-leaders-visit-china-us-ma-ying-jeou-tsai-ing-wenTaipei |
◆ Newsweek, 2023-3-20: The combination of political warfare, gray-zone actions, and the potential for kinetic warfare come together most clearly around Taiwan, which offers the most immediate prospect of China going on a major kinetic offensive. ◆ Reuters, 2023-3-13: In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ U.S. Naval War College - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system, the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) ◆ The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them. Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation.◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people ◆ full text
Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns |
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AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/ | ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America |
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 | The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH |
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 | Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h |
◆ Reuters, 2023-3-5: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning ◆ Foreign Policy in focus, 2023-3-2: if Beijing did decide to invade Taiwan after 2026, TSMC’s intellectual capital, in the form of its top computer scientists, would undoubtedly be on outbound flights for Phoenix, leaving little more than a few concrete shells and some sabotaged equipment behind...significant chip factory projects being put in place ... Add it all up and the U.S. is already about halfway to the “minimum of three years and a $350 billion investment… to replace the Taiwanese [chip] foundries ◆ USNI, 2023-3-2: Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027. ◆ Reuters, 2023-2-28: The threat of China invading Taiwan has moved to the centre of global money managers' risk radars and is factoring in their investment decisions,"China wouldn't have to invade Taiwan or actually get hot to just cause a stir in that part of the market" ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-28: The Russian invasion has allowed the United States to conduct a dry run of exactly the sort of policies that deterring or defeating a Chinese attack on Taiwan would require: active defense industrial production lines, an efficient logistics network ...a coalition of allies ... ◆ full text
Pew Research
org., 2023-3-2 |
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a conflict between China and Taiwan | China invade Taiwan | Taiwan declared Independence, China invaded | |
support China | 8% | 7 | 10 |
support Taiwan | 45% | 49 | 40 |
remain neutral | 47% | 44 | 50 |
when the scenario involves Taiwan declaring
independence. Under this hypothetical, 46% of Democratic respondents say
the U.S. should support Taiwan, compared with 28% of Republicans. pewresearch.org/decoded/2023/03/02/testing-survey-questions-about-a-hypothetical-military-conflict-between-china-and-taiwan/ |
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