For a latest version of "Taiwan military", please click :  Taiwan military  (English)!! (Chinese)
          

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Obscurantisme in democratic Taiwan  ―   'Psychological Warfare' strategy of defense Some Taiwan's popular media and politicians spoke loudly about N.Y. Times (8-17-2020): "U.S. Tries to Bolster Taiwan’s Status", but left out N.Y. Times (8-30-2020): "Taiwan cannot count on US as a matter of strategy" or Economist (8-30-2020): "The island cannot rely on American help".   Even Taiwan's previous president Ma was lashed out by lots of media and politicians for his opinion "US army won't come to rescue" .   The authors (Retired vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral James Winnefeld Jr., ( 2011 to 2015), CIA former director Michael Morell ) and the US Naval Institute's Proceedings were sort of put down for same reason ―  their article in Proceedings (2020-August)  predicts it's 'too late' for the US comes to rescue Taiwan after the war broke out.   Some Taiwanese in power intended to apply a thick coat of whitewash, misled many of their nationals to believe the US army will or very likely will come to rescue once Chinese PLA attacks Taiwan, despite the majority of Americans opposing the use of US troops to Taiwan-China war, and quite some Western media giving  "wishful thinking" warnings.  The US policy of  strategic ambiguity might or may be shifted to strategic clarity in the near future,  but the US army in Pacific probably still mainly function to deter Chinese PLA, as Foreign Affairs said at 9-2-2020 "The best way to ensure that the United States does not need to come to Taiwan’s defense is to signal to China that it is prepared to do so".

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Taiwan military   vs.   China military
Taiwan military	assessments     New York times,  8-30-2020:  Lawmaker said Taiwan’s military needs to improve a lot  Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to  defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military
personnel  ( soldiers, officials )	◆  Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell.  US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system. ◆  armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers ◆  few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled  /  Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/ ◆ Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... /  New York times,  5-18-2017 ◆  The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.   /  Wikipedia, May 2020 ◆  Taiwan began to phase out mandatory conscription for all young men, which was deeply unpopular, in favor of an all-volunteer force; 4 months of compulsory service ... training is "insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat (RAND, '17)  /  New York times,  8-30-2020  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/world/asia/taiwan-china-military.html ◆   Only 310 thousands out of 770 thousands of qualified reservists were called up for short-term military training, from 2015 to 2017, 61 thousands of those escaped the duty  / Formosa TV news, 8-3-2018, storm.mg 10-15-2019 ◆  only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group  /   Financial Times, 7-12-2020 ◆  Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state.  For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men.  /   Hong Kong Free Press 7-15-2020
strategy	◆  To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” /  Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020 ◆  so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only at surface-level    /   United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020    (ps:  the US should work with Taiwan to develop asymmetric military capabilities  /  Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020  ) ◆  a weirdo strategy:  Facing PLA's attacks, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels, warships leave Taiwan, once the US military comes to rescue, they will return and join the war  / Apple Daily, 8-14-2020 tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/
firepower	◆ France forced Taiwan to withdraw its request to upgrade 20-year-old Mirage fighters ...  F-16 A/B and  F-CK-1 fighters are  growing tired; 60 or 70 new fighters and a few missiles won’t really change the balance of power. And heavy tanks – especially if they lack trained crews – won’t do much to stop a Chinese invasion / Forbes, 8-30-2020 ◆  Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan.   /  Forbes, 6-3-2020 ◆  China has ｎｕｃｌｅａｒ　ｂｏｍｂ ，Neutron bomb， hydrogen bomb, Taiwan has none of those. / Next TV news, 5-8-2020 ◆   Three Taiwanese presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文)  squandering those "bonus for peace" military budget and underestimating the demand of national defense, lead to shortage of arms-deal budget.  /   United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020 ◆  Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ,  China PLA No. 3  /  Global FirePower, 2020 ◆  A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... /  New York times,  11-4-2017
military logistics system	◆   The logistics inside the military remain so abysmal ... The army likely has no clue how many tanks or guns actually mission-capable ...       /  Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020  ◆  Taiwan  lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments /   United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020
morale	◆  “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue /  Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/ ◆  Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... /  New York times,  5-18-2017 ◆ Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... / Financial Times  5-19-2020
combat experience	◆  The military combines 4 drills to one per year for battle and propaganda-show, affecting training effect ,  high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission. /  ref to China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion   www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv 蘭寧利》; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv
discipline	◆  The practice of judicial system has proved not as good as military criminal code to educate and train the military discipline.  A soldier's 洪仲丘 'torture to death" sparks massive protest around 2013,  the military court was hence no longer to judge the troops .   /  The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial
budget	◆  High personnel expense pushes aside the logistics and maintenance budget,   the govt. needs to plan special budge to purchase arms. /  The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial ◆ Taiwan would increase Taiwan’s defense budget by 10 percent, on top of a 5 percent increase the year before. That would raise military spending to more than 2 percent of gross domestic product   /  New York times,  8-30-2020
ps	VICE, 7-24-2020:  With increasing Chinese modernization, Taiwan’s advantages decline — and the numbers are telling. To Taiwan’s 140,000 ground troops, China has 1 million. To Taiwan’s 23 Coast Guard ships, China has 248. Taiwan has no bombers, while China has 450. While Taiwan has 350 fighter jets, China has 1,500. All in all, China’s defense budget is 17 times the size of Taiwan’s, with much of the former spent on developing the capability of unifying Taiwan with the mainland by force.   The capability to do harm and the intention to do harm. China has both.

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US Naval Institute, Proceedings,  2020-August ;  Forbes, 8-24-2020   Chinese military vs. Taiwanese military   https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was

brief

◆(1)  The 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making.  The PBSC decided in mid-December (2020) to place in motion Operation Red Province — to bring Taiwan back into China. ◆(2)  Non-government voices on Taiwan, orchestrated as a deception operation by Chinese intelligence services, now called for full independence, creating a predicate for Beijing to move on its legal claim.  The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions and then commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January. ◆(3)  Two days before U.S. presidential inauguration, a message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion... China’s own “little green men” — emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities.  A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid.  ◆(4)  PLA seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus.  Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships.  An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced. ◆(5)  China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” sent messages: “Don’t join in any international rebuke of China or suffer the consequences of reduced Chinese trade and investment.” Stock markets across the globe crashed on 19 January. ◆(6)  the National Security Advisor said, “This is not about whether we stand behind Taiwan—we do—but it looks like we may have been outmaneuvered. I don’t like it,"

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If China invades Taiwan ...  responses from US president Trump,  state secretary Pompeo
◆ FoxNews,  8-23-2020, Q: 1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors." 2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?	Trump : 1)  They're coming to this country.   2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,”  “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this"  "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it" It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing
◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020	Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/   Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources
◆ FoxNews,  6-1-2020 　    QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?	SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

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The Scary War Game Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again and Again  8-17-2020    by Real Clear Investigations  https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html
	1) Taiwan Defense Act ― questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon, which have received scant notice in the mainstream press. 2)  The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over.
Chn. attacks Taiwan	◆(1)  China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation” ◆(2)  A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ;  China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan. ◆(3)  American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles.  Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets. ◆(4)  American  submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships,  but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy ◆(5)  Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) ― would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops ◆(6)  The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports.  Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element. ◆(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.
US defends Taiwan	◆(1) The key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait.  American long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600 miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours” ◆(2)   A second component of a Taiwan defense would be space-based reconnaissance using artificial intelligence to locate enemy targets, which the LRASMs would hit; a third would be an American version of flooding the zone, with unmanned undersea drones that could fire torpedoes at Chinese landing craft. ◆(3)  If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”
PS	1 )  an array of economic, diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and actions. 2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric  – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan.

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news

◆  NewsWeek, 7-21-2020:  　 Once military conflict breaks out -   A slight plurality of 31 percent assigned blame to Chinese President Xi Jinping, while 30 percent of respondents said they believed both Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen were responsible and 24 percent blamed Tsai. 　 　 　 ◆  Eurasian Times  7-9-2020: 　 The Tsai authority knows that Taiwan  cannot compete with the mainland on its own, and therefore turns to Washington and is willing to be used. Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US.

●   NHK Japan, 7-20-2020:Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has warned that the island will face intensifying pressure from China. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200719_18/ 　 ●  Washington Post 7-22-2020: the Taiwanese fm : urging "extreme caution" in the island's dealings with a Chinese  leadership in Beijing that he described as both increasingly emboldened and insecure. 　 ●  Daily Mail, 7-22-2020:  Foreign Minister Wu:  'The threat is on the rise' !!   intrusions 'happened almost every day' in June and were 'much more frequent' than what the government had disclosed to the public.  China has also made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan.  ( ps: media didn't report it's on an almost daily basis since Jun.  ) 　 　 ●  CNN 2-19-2020 exclusive interview with Taiwanese president Tsai I. W. : "What we are expecting is, after withstanding the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" ....  "Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" ...   Therefore, Taiwan's fears soar as China repeats threat to INVADE the small island nearby.

◆  Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports:   In Jan. 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered  an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation  by force.   However, Taiwan's government was  tight-lipped about this ultimatum, otherwise pro-Independence Tsai I. W. may not continue in presidential office in 2020, because, according to National Interest (6-16-2020): more than 60.3 percent of the respondents  opposed Taiwan's independence if it is followed by China’s military invasion...

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SOS  from Taiwan
	(headline of Taiwan News)
◆   Fox News, 5-26-2020: Taiwan Foreign minister warns Taiwan is next on Chinese agenda ( military actions ) and asks for international support.  TTV (Taiwan), 5-27-2020: Taiwan president: keep our eyes peeled for China's military actions.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcHp-1j6Lg 　 　 ◆   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/ 　         QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?          SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.

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   Will China strike on Taiwan ? 

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  Taiwanese military  VS.  communist China's military [ People's Liberation Army ]     

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★  Han Kuang exercises,  a major annual event for Taiwan armed forces

 ● China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

             Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019

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	"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ... aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019  that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan, China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue. 　 The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare".   Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing.  (see pic. right) 　 usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.

 Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China.  Therefore, Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as annual report above.  (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school,  National ChungCheng University)

●  New York times,  5-18-2017: For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States.  Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue.  Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals/

 /  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion    ( ps: China's Baidu, 10-15-2017: Taiwanese reservists 3 million in total;  Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  

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●  United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
          Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.    China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

        According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

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●   ◆ Formosa TV, 2-25-2019:  Taipei mayor Ko: some American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.  
       ◆ CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week.  ps: The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
      ◆  Global Times, Mar 2018:  Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.  

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●   Global FirePower, 2020 :  Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2.  Russia 3.  Chn 4.  India  5.  Japan  6.  S Korea  16.  Indonesia  17. Saudi Arabia  19.  Australia  22. Vietnam  23. Thai  25. N korea    26.  TW  35.  Myanmar  44. Malaysia  45. UAE  46.  Banladesh  48.  Philippines  51. Singapore ).  In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18.   However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan;  Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc. 

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●   Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities.

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 ｐｉｃ：　Ｆｏｒ Strategic deterrence，Taiwan needs 500 pieces of  雲峰飛彈 missiles

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●   United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.  

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●  Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 ：The 1st step for Taiwanese military reform is HONESTY ( 國軍改革 從誠實開始)
          Taiwan navy under fire for letting sailors infected with coronavirus into community (South China Morning Post, 4-21-2020), Taiwan will quarantine 700 sailors after three came down with the coronavirus following a mission to a nearby Pacific island. (New York Post, 4-18-20)
          About Taiwan Navy's 'Friendly Fleet''s story, no matter declassified or easy-to-master info. , Taiwan' s military issued different versions within one day, even played a slapstick show - slapping face each other.  The public strongly questioned their honesty.   The military failed to handle small risk like this, how can we trust their ability to face a war.  (brief)    ● UDN (聯合報社論)／十人一口罩  , editorial 4- 21- 2020: In average, Taiwanese government allocated one face mask to ten soldiers before the infection event, how to assure army's combat capability and basic quality ??
 ●  Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 5-1-2020 ：Since taking enlisting-system, Taiwan military always failed to recruit enough number of soldiers, the quality of candidates to join the military- school examinations is not as good as expected...

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  US military   VS.   China military [ People's Liberation Army ]     

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●   New York Times  5-24-2020:  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

●   Voice of America, 6-4-2020:  US navy will win a war with Chinese navy at this moment...    ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

●   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020:  Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.

●   The Australian, 5-18-2020, The Times (UK): In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon.

●   CBS news (USA), 11-14-2018:  U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
       the National Defense Strategy Commission:  "It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat."   ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)

   Will US send troops to defend Taiwan ?

●   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

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●  The Interpreter ,  6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees. 　

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●  Chicago Global Affairs Council

        "Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?"  美國民意支持出兵嗎?

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● The LOWY Institute ( think tank in Australia ), 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security. Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.　https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard

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● Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan.     Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).    

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●  Economist 5-28-2020:  a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked......  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly.  https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify

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●  chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018, Missouri State University  professor D. Hickey's comment :  the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.  

●  The Liberty Times, (自由時報) ，1-24-2020:  Agreements or treaties like <Taiwan Relations Act> (『台灣關係法』) have not clearly stated the U.S. has obligation or duty to send troops to defend Taiwan.

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●  Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020  https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/  :  Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force  by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.

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●  Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, ref. to Forbes :   the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war. 

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● The Diplomat 6-8-2020:  Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.

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●  Maybe Taiwan won't fear military threat from China if the US definitely would come to the rescue once the reunification war breaks out. ( Financial Times  5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic...)

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●  Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020:  After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.

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●  United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.  

●  National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan... ◦

●  China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: China and the US flexed their muscles frequently near Taiwan territory, in this April, US fighters approached Taiwan Strait surrounding airspace 13 times, particularly B-1B reached there 3 times.   Next TV news 5-8-2020: Chinese air force and fleets conducted a series of provocative, aggressive operations from Jan. 23 till April 22,  once traversed Taiwanese 'territory' (Taiwan Strait median line).

●   The China Times,  opinion, 4-21-2018: survey/poll shows only 18% American are on the side of defending Taiwan by US military  (僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台).

 arms deal

●  L.A. Times 5-20-2020 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-20/taiwan-president-calls-for-stability-in-china-relations), The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references )

          The U.S. is the island’s main source of military support against China’s military threats.  Since 2008, the United States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter aircraft, tanks, and missiles.
        The Diplomat said that while the U.S. remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be important partners as well.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has exported arms from countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States.  https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiwan-looking-to-diversify-its-defense-partnerships/
        However, China called the Taiwan issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and military contacts between Taiwan and any country.   Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship.

●  Republic World, 5-25-2020:  China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.

●  Washington Post,  5-30-2020   The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.

       three presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) kept squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense.

●   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

●  New York times,  11-4-2017: “(Taiwan) needs to resist a Chinese military attack for two weeks and wait for help from the United States or the international community,”  echoing a strategy that has been at the core of Taiwan’s defense doctrine for decades......Taiwan’s armed forces, by contrast (Chn), have fallen way behind, struggling to recruit enough soldiers and sailors — and to equip those they have.   A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits the United States to defend the island’s sovereignty, providing “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary” ... US latest arms sales " short of the major systems that could give Taiwan a real edge."  (Singapore's The Straits Times :

●   Washington Post,    1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
       Can China really take over Taiwan?

           Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.”  ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China.  A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

○

    other information
    

  ●喵Annual Report to US Congress (2018), 8-17-2018
                Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018
                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

●            
            Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force
             A new method was applied to make these tables below:

●  The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence  “Open Hearing on China’s Worldwide Military Expansion.”, 5-17-2018

        (1) China's “infatuation with Taiwan” ?

        a visceral nationalistic design ...“if Taiwan survives as a democracy [it] undermines the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”

      (2) USA curb China ?

        the US could soon be completely driven out of the Asia-Pacific region if Beijing is allowed to continue on its current course unopposed.

      (3) Congressional hearing recommended

       deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Asia, showing strong support for Taiwan, and exposing human rights abuses in China as immediate steps that could curb Beijing

○ ●

●  Taiwan Public Opinion and National Security,  Dennis V. Hickey, Missouri State University   /   chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018
        The U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

        According to a more reliable poll available, The Taiwan National Security Survey (TNSS), which is conducted by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University in 2018 and 2019 ,  36.9% plan to “wait and see, 16% percent plan to leave the country, 2.2 % will hide away and 1.8% will “choose to surrender. On the other hand, 6.2% will support the government’s decision, 4.9% will join the army to fight against the invasion, and 4.1% will resist the invasion. The good news is that only 0.1% will commit suicide. But the bad news is that a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender.”

  ○

  ●  Washington Post,    1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
       Can China really take over Taiwan?

         Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.”  ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China.  A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

○ 

  ●  The US subcommittee hearing (4-17-2018) Rep. Ted Soho,  Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific: Seems likely Xi will force the issue (unification) in his life time.  ( He is the only figure who can accomplish China's so called reunification.  Unify Taiwan peacefully or otherwise he is the key part of this accomplishment, ......)

 ★○○

  ●  The Heritage Foundation, The Index of U.S. Military Strength, 2017

         China’s provocative behavior has expanded to include militarization of islands that it has built in highly disputed international waters in the South China Sea. China has also adopted aggressive naval tactics to intimidate such neighboring countries as Japan and the Philippines... the 2017 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force  ...  certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies ... /  http://index.heritage.org/military/2017/assessments/

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  ●  Why China Can't Conquer Taiwan in a War , 11-17-2017   Zachary Keck http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-cant-conquer-taiwan-war-23254
      A new study by Michael Beckley (Tufts University), published in the academic journal International Security argues that China’s neighbors could thwart Chinese military aggression through anti-access/area denial strategies with only minimal U.S. assistance. ...   if China was far more successful than the United States had been in those conflicts, Beijing’s ability to execute an amphibious invasion is still far from certain. For instance, Beckley notes that only ten percent of Taiwan’s coastlines are suitable for an amphibious landing, which would allow Taipei to concentrate its forces on a few key areas. Chinese forces trying to land would likely be severely outnumbered...
○

  ●  <The Chinese Invasion Threat> by Ian Eastonct., Oct. 3, 2017 :

○

  ●  BBC , 12-3-2016   ○http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538
         The pivotal role of the US was most clearly shown in 1996, when China conducted provocative missile tests to try and influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election. In response, US President Bill Clinton ordered the biggest display of US military power in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait, and a clear message to Beijing.

○

  ●  国家政策研究基金会 NPF  National Policy Foundation in Taipei, Taiwan;  10-7-2017 CTN

      The peace of Taiwan Strait before 2025 depends US military forces (台海安全 仍繫於美軍是否介入...最大的不確定性仍是「美軍是否介入」，且在2025年之前，美軍相對中共仍有明顯優勢，與其說押注與否，不如說是因「美軍不可測」的因子無法排除。)  /      http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171007000342-260119

●

● China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said. 　 ●  Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) raised doubts over the time frame Easton asserted, saying that he did not think it is very precise. 　 ●China, according to the book <The Chinese Invasion Threat>, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack.

pic.: Headline of Apple Daily, Oct. 6, 2017

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/05/2003679744;   http://freebeacon.com/natiChina’s

  ●
  ●喵US Annual Report to Congress, 2017

　

	Annual Report to US Congress (2017): Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017 https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
	○
	○
	○
	https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF  2016  Defense Budget Comparison (Adjusted for Inflation),  Billion (USD) China (Official Budget)  $144.3 Russia (National Defense Budget)   $46.2 Japan   $47.2 India  $37.0 Republic of Korea  $32.8 Taiwan  $10.5

Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China.  Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force.  (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school,  National ChungCheng University)

○●

  ●  Apple Daily, 12-19-2017   head-page, focus  ; data from Taiwan's national defense gov.

 

pic. left: China military capacity VS Taiwan;   pic. right: Chinese air force did lots of "patrol circling" (flying around Taiwan and passing through 1st island chain ).

 Source: Apple Daily News, head-page and focus news, 12-19-2017

○●

   ●     International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS,UK,  www.iiss.org), the military balance 2018 press statement - The annual assessment of global military capability and defence economics, 2-14-2018
 ●In 2017 Beijing showcased more advanced military systems ... are challenging the global predominance of the United States and its allies ... https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military-s-balance

            China's modernisation of its armed forces is processing faster than many experts expected ...  (ref to Apple Daily, opinion, 2-21-2018, "共軍非必勝  國軍非必敗")

○●

   ●  US Annual Report to Congress, 2016

                OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Annual Report to Congress:
                Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2016%20China%20Military%20Power%20Report.pdf
　

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Naval Forces
	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	East and South Sea Fleets	Total
Aircraft Carriers	1	0	0
Destroyers	23	16	4
Frigates	52	40	22
Corvettes	23	14	1
Tank Landing Ships/ Amphibious Transport Dock	30	28	14
Medium Landing Ships	22	16	0
Diesel Attack Submarines	57	38	4
Nuclear Attack Submarines	5	2	0
Ballistic Missile Submarines	4	4	0
Coastal Patrol (Missile)	86	68	45

★

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Air Forces
	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	Within range of Taiwan	Total
Fighters	1,700	130	384
Bombers/Attack	400	200	0
Transport	475	150	19
Special Mission Aircraft	115	75	25

★

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Ground Forces

	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	Taiwan Strait Area	Total
Personnel (Active)	1.25 million	400,000	130,000
Group Armies/Army Corps	18	8	3
Infantry Divisions	12	4	0
Infantry Brigades	23	7	5
Mechanized Infantry Divisions	7	4	0
Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Divisions	2	2	0
Mechanized Infantry Brigades	25	8	3
Armor Divisions	1	0	0
Armor Brigades	17	7	4
Amphibious Armor Brigades	1	1	0
Army Aviation Brigades and Regiments	11	6	3
Artillery Brigades	22	9	5
Airborne Divisions	3	3	0
Marine Brigades	2	2	2
Tanks	7,000	2,800	1,100
Artillery Pieces	8,000	3,900	1,600

○

 

   ●  New York times,  10-19-2017:  https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171019/china-xi-jinping-party-congress/dual/

○    Chinese president Xi delivered the line that won the loudest applause of his marathon speech: “We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
        Apple Daily, 10-20-2017,  "ShaoKang Zhao Fax" column:
        Only 800+ words (out of 32000+ words in total) in Xi's speech at the 19th Communist party congress mentioned Taiwan, Taiwan issue seems not so important to Xi JinPing.
        China Times Group's CTI TV Sisys world news, 10-21-2017 : expert analyzed and interpreted Xi's speech and his implies ―  it seems the timetable for unification is 2050. 

●

　

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-17-2020 　 　 pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-17-2020
pic. left:  No.3 "Taiwan military" on Dogpile, 5-17-2020;   pic. right: Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Ecosia (Europe Germany) , 5-17-2020  ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic