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intlHumanRights.com,  https://Courageworld.ch  are sites of same group




   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on Mocrosoft Bing, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-18, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-14, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20,  2022-9-11, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-23, 2022-8-14, 2022-8-6, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-24, 2022-6-18, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-8, 2022-5-30, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-6


 pic.: No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-14, Top or No. 1 "comment Taiwan" on US Yahoo, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-11, 2022-9-5, 2022-8-13, 2022-8-7, 2022-6-25, 2022-5-25



   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on Yahoo (Taiwan), 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2024-1-1, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10,  2023-9-11,2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11, 2022-9-4, 2022-8-22, 2022-8-14, 2022-8-7, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-18, 2022-6-9    pic.  : No.1 "comment Taiwan" (Chinese version) on Yahoo Taiwan , 2024-4-19, 2024-1-1, 2023-8-8, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-20, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-6, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20  





   No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on ecosia (Berlin Germany), 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-10, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-11,  2022-8-23, 2022-8-14,  2022-8-7, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-18, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-7, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-22, 2022-3-17, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-6, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2021-11-11, 2021-10-23, 2021-10-8, 2021-10-1, 2021-9-27, 2021-9-19, 2021-9-7, 2021-8-22, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-27, 2021-6-1, 2021-5-9, 2021-5-1, 2021-4-14, 3-23-2021, 3-8-2021, 2-20-2021, 1-19-2021, 10-1-2020;   pic. left: This websites-group was ranked No.1 by keyword "Taiwan comments"  on Ecosia of Germany, 2023-8-22, 2023-2-28, 2023-1-21, 2022-12-12, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-19,

 2022-2-14, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2022-1-30, 2022-1-26




 pic.: No.1 "comment Taiwan" on MetaGER.de of Germany, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2023-11-1, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4  



 pic.:  The web-sites group ranks No.1 "comment Taiwan" on Yandex of Russia , 2024-4-19, 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2024-1-1, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-10-13, 2022-9-23, 2022-9-12, 2022-9-5,
2022-8-20, 2022-8-13,  2022-8-7, 2022-7-18, 2022-7-7, 2022-7-1, 2022-6-25, 2022-6-10, 2022-6-7, 2022-6-1, 2022-5-23, 2022-4-16, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-1, 2022-1-30, 2022-1-25, 2022-1-11, 2022-1-1, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-23, 2021-10-20, 2021-10-3, 2021-6-27, 8-13-2020, 8-5-2020, 6-12-2020 5-21-2020, 2-28-2020, 1-17-2020, 1-11-2020, 12-18-2019,  12-1-2019, 11-26-2019, 11-7-2019; No.3 at 2023-3-23



No. 1  "comment Taiwan" on swisscows ( Switzerland search engine  ), 2024-2-28, 2024-1-23, 2024-1-1, 2023-11-1, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-22, 2021-11-10, 2021-10-10, 2021-8-22, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-27, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-9, 2021-5-1, 2021-4-14, 3-23-2021, 3-8-2021, 2-20-2021, 10-1-2020, 8-13-2020



pic. : No.1  "Taiwan comments"  on Microsoft Bing, 2023-11-1, 2023-9-11, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-6-16, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, This websites-group was ranked No.1 or 2 by keyword "Taiwan comments"  on Microsoft Bing, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-12, 2022-9-20, 2022-9-14, 2022-9-11, 2022-8-24, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-20, 2022-3-17, 2022-3-12, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-28, 2022-2-25, 2022-2-21, 2022-2-19, 2022-2-14, 2022-2-11, 2022-2-8, 2022-2-5, 2022-1-31, 2022-1-28, 2022-1-25, 2022-1-20, 2022-1-15, 2022-1-12




Latest news 


Wall Street Journal, 2024-7-18: As if to remind everyone, Mr. Trump is casually signaling that the U.S. might not defend Taiwan from a Chinese assault. New York Times, 2024-7-16: many Taiwanese officials are convinced that their island will be vulnerable unless it quickly steps up preparedness.  some experts argue that the island should lengthen conscription — already extended recently to 12 months Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-7-11: China sent a record number of warplanes across a U.S.-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait—a move that comes as the new president of the archipelago mulls a trip that may include a stop in America Financial Times (2024-7-10):Experts warn that Taiwan remains woefully underprepared for war. A bigger challenge would be overhauling bureaucratic structures and procedures. War games and other assessments of Taiwan's defence readiness have repeatedly highlighted a lack of co-ordination between different government departments and the civilian and military bureaucracy.


China seized Taiwan boat with crew for fishing illegally -  a move could add to tensions between Beijing and President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan.

New York Times, 2024-7-3 China Seizes Taiwanese Fishing Boat in Latest Uptick in Tensions; Bonnie Glaser: China wants to demonstrate to Taiwan that it does not have control over air space and sea space...and sends a  signal to Lai that he is very close to their red lines and he had better not cross them.
CNN, 2024-7-3 China's coast guard detains Taiwan fishing boat near frontline islands; three Taiwan coast guard vessels answered a call for help but retreated to avoid conflict when they were outnumbered by their Chinese counterparts.
Bloomberg, 2024-7-3 China sees Lai as pushing for independence for the US-backed island...Officials in Taipei have also expressed concern that China will detain more individuals from the island to pile pressure on Lai.

Washington Post, 2024-7-1: China: Taiwan's
leadership, along with its supporters in the United States, is pursuing “separation” from China in “incremental” fashion.   Washington Examiner, 2024-7-2: Xi Jinping's regime is setting the legal and diplomatic table for a crackdown on Taiwan while blaming the United States for the growing possibility of war over the island democracy...  “The Chinese government has the right to expel this regime..."  The ominous rhetoric seems to express in part Xi's displeasure with Lai Ching-Te   The Atlantic Council, 2024-6-27: Taiwanese officials have rejected not only that interpretation but also Beijing’s claim that Taipei agreed to its view of “one China” when forming the “1992 consensus” at a semiofficial meeting in Hong Kong that year. The 'consensus' term was artificially coined nearly a decade after the meeting. There was no actual consensus, even according to Taiwan’s president in 1992, between Beijing and Taipei about the status of Taiwan with respect to the PRC.  Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-23: Lai Ching-te said he aimed to make Taiwan the “Asian center for the democratic drone supply chain."; Taiwan has the know-how to build its own unmanned aircraft, now it is a question of scale.  The overwhelming majority of the types of small, inexpensive drones that are having the greatest impact on battlefields are made in China New York Times, 2024-6-17 : the United States' chief representative in Taiwan advices: Avoid panic about China's combative language and moves, but don't grow numb to the risks  Financial Times, 2024-6-16 : China's President Xi Jinping told European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen that Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking TaiwanThe White House did not comment.

The US defends Taiwan ?

TIME, 2024-6-4 Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc"


China's 'reunification' with Taiwan

Reuters, 2024-6-2 Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan is being increasingly "eroded" by Taiwanese separatists and external forces, China says
Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2
China is determined to subvert and manipulate the island's politics
Daily Express, 2024-6-3 China's Defence Chief asserted that China's military is prepared to engage forcefully, and warned of an imminent "perilous situation of war and danger"

Washington Examiner, 2024-5-31:  Foreign Affairs wrote that invasion does not appear to be China's preferred option. Beijing's more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan's airspace, maritime space, and information space. The United States must become more alert to the dangers posed by a slow strangulation of Taiwan. New York Times, 2024-5-27:“The United States must maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan,” Mr. McCaul, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said.    FoxNews, 2024-5-28 : House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose if China invaded Taiwan. Washington Post, 2024-5-20: Taiwan swears in new president, the ruling party DPP has transformed the island democracy into a bulwark against Chinese aggression and brushed off increasingly ominous threats from Beijing; the perception is that Lai Ching-te's policy could be more provocative compared to Tsai's policy New York Times, 2024-5-20: Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te vows to keep the island democracy safe in the face of Chinese pressure and wars raging abroad that have fed uncertainty over Western staying power.  "Peace through strength" is going to be his main posture     full text


China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan as 'Punishment', 'Reprisals'

 New York Times, 2024-5-22 China took offense to Mr. Lai's assertion that  —  they “are not subordinate to each other” —  and his emphasis on Taiwan's democratic identity and warnings against threats from China. Beijing accused Mr. Lai of promoting formal independence for Taiwan ── the drill was “based on various stages of an invasion of Taiwan... might feature training to seize one of those islands.
BBC, 2024-5-23 the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan"... for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and DongyinChina aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
AFP, 2024-5-23 China holds war games around Taiwan, vows flowing blood CCTV : the drills were partly aimed at rehearsing an economic blockade of the island, "strangle" Taiwan's critical Kaohsiung port to "severely impact" its foreign trade,  and cut off "Taiwan's lifeline of energy imports" as well as "block the support lines that some US allies provide to 'Taiwan independence' forces".   General S. Sklenka described the exercises as "concerning" but not unexpected.
CNN, 2024-5-22 CCTV: creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island.  An expert ( at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peacecalls China's latest drills “an intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.” Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options to coerce and inflict pain
AFP, 2024-5-22 China slammed the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a " downright 'confession of Taiwan independence'"
   full text


Reuters, 2024-5-20: Lai Ching-te takes office as Taiwan's new president facing an angry and deeply suspicious China which believes he is a "separatist", and a fractious parliament with an opposition chomping at the bit to challenge him. Bloomberg, Yahoo, 2024-5-15: China said it would sanction five Taiwanese political commentators and roll out a law to punish “separatists,” moves aimed at piling pressure on incoming president Lai Ching-te just days before he takes office War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Zelensky: "I need ammunition, not a ride"; Whereas Ukraine was focused on acquiring military aid, Taiwan will almost certainly be asking potential allies to engage in a direct military intervention.  Instead of focusing on ideology, Taiwan might be better served by appealing to the core security interests of the United States and its regional partners. Foreign Policy, 2024-5-12: China and the U.S. are numb to the real risk of war The pair are dangerously close to the edge of nuclear war over Taiwan—again.  Business Insider, 2024-5-10: China is untangling its economy from the West. It could be preparing for long-term tensions — and an invasion of Taiwan. Newsweek, 2024-5-8: Taiwan must embrace a more dynamic defensive strategy that can independently deter, or at least stall, Beijing.  If China establishes a beachhead on Taiwan that can be reliably resupplied, defeat is a matter of time New York Times, 2024-5-3: U.S. officials came to think that Mr. Xi would try to invade only if he believed he would succeed in a relatively bloodless operation before American troops responded... U.S. SM-6 missile seemed right for the job. Bloomberg, 2024-5-2: "We see China and Russia, for the first time, exercising together in relation to Taiwan...", Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said  in testimony to Congress.    Financial Times, 2024-5-3: Instead of trying to defeat China’s vastly superior air and naval forces head-on, Taiwan should ensure that any force attempting to come ashore would be slaughtered.  ABC News, 2024-5-1: The US is in a Cold War with China over Taiwan.  Taiwan is really existential to U.S. interests because of its position in the region; whoever controls Taiwan, really controls that Indo-Pacific region.  TIME, 2024-5-1:  Communist China's leaders “have to understand that things like that can't come easy,” Trump says, but he declines to say whether he would come to Taiwan's defense.  National Interest, 2024-5-1: To defend Taiwan, America needs to upgrade its defense-industrial base. Both America and its allies are now deeply preoccupied by events in other portions of the globe, which could lead the CCP to believe that it should strike while the United States is spread thin.  The Telegraph, 2024-5-1: this war chest like Beijing's hypersonic missiles and nuclear weapons – not to enable an attack on Taiwan at a chosen date, but to ensure that with the balance of power changing in China's favour, it will not be needed.  Xi is betting on political disarray and disunity among the US and his Western allies  Wall Street Journal, 2024-4-30: Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports as global demand for electronics picks up Business Insider, 2024-4-27: A host of warning signs point to China preparing for military action against Taiwan.  Military forces are being deployed nearer to Taiwan than ever, effectively shortening Taiwan's reaction time.   New York Times, 2024-4-23:  in the Foreign Aid Package, the House attached a provision that would allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advanced U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from invading the island. USNI News, 2024-4-23: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Issues - A key consideration for U.S. policymakers is whether and if so how to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself in a possible cross-Strait conflict without triggering such a conflict. New York Times, 2024-4-18: The House is set to vote on a foreign aid package for Taiwan -  allow the Pentagon to quickly provide Taiwan with more offensive weapons and provides billions more for the purchase of advance U.S. weapons technology as the U.S. and Taiwanese governments continue to build up their alliances to deter China from launching an invasion  Asia Nikkei, 2024-4-16: NATO Defense College report: Nato could become involved in a potential Taiwan conflict if Chinese attack on Hawaii New York Times, 2024-4-10: China's “immediate focus is to push the incoming Lai Ching-te administration to adopt a more accommodating political stance on cross-strait relations.  China has brushed off Mr. Lai's offers to talk as insincere. On the other hand, Beijing has shown that it will court friendlier Taiwanese politicians, like Mr. Ma, who accept the framework for relations demanded by Beijing: that both sides accept that they are part of one China, even if they differ on what that means. New York Times, 2024-4-3: In a rare call, Biden spoke with Xi. China said that Xi had called for “concrete actions” to demonstrate a U.S. commitment not to support Taiwan's independence.   New York Times, 2024-3-28 : Taiwan's top diplomat says a Russian victory could embolden China to move against Taiwan and would fuel anti-American propaganda 


Taiwan has breached its commitments  ─   Taiwan's death penalty "progress" in 10 years

till 2015  2024

<BBC> , <Amnesty International> UK , 2012-12-22

Amnesty International has condemned Taiwan's move as "cold-blooded killing".

The executions - by shooting - "made a mockery of the authorities' stated commitment to abolish the death penalty".

"It is abhorrent to justify taking someone's life because prisons are overcrowded or the public's alleged support for the death penalty".

<Amnesty International>) 、 <European Parliament> ,   Dec. 23, 2012Taiwan has breached its commitments: EU

London-based Amnesty International organization ), 2015-6-5: a failure of political leadership
France (2012-12-6) has condemned the execution of six death-row inmates by Taiwan

<BBC> (Chinese version),  4.30.2014, <Focus Taiwan>, 5.1.2014: ... human rights groups questioned Taiwan's execution this time with political purpose (shifts the focus on China's trade agreement, and nuclear factory issue).  


★  DW (Germany), 2024-4-24:


☉ tv.Guardian, DW video: Taiwan's claim to be a regional bastion of human rights is undermined by its retention of capital punishment, activists say.

co-executive director of the Death Penalty Project
"Taiwan has said for many years that they're on a road to abolition,"  "But my question is, is that road too long politically and that not enough progress has been made politically to move away from the death penalty?"

the issue is often being used by Taiwan gov. as "some kind of political maneuvering."



7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off Taiwan

New York Times, 2024-4-4 Taipei 101, once the tallest building in the world, still, some experts say that more needs to be done to either strengthen or demolish structures that don't meet standards, and such calls have grown louder in the wake of the latest earthquake.
USA Today, 2024-4-4 The island's two nuclear power stations remain unaffected.  Nvidia said it expects no supply disruptions from the earthquake.  Taiwan, prone to earthquakes, sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” where 90% of the world's temblors take place.  It felt strong in Taipei because of the “basin effect,” which occurs when earthquake reverberations become trapped in soft ground.
Fortune, 2024-4-4 TSMC said its fabrication plants recovered 70% of tools within 10 hours of the earthquake, and that its “critical tools,” such as its multimillion-dollar extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, remain unharmed...  its massive chip foundry mega-complexes are nearly quake-proof.
TIME, 2024-4-4 China offered earthquake aid to Taiwan—Taiwan's quick rejection likely stemmed, experts say, from lingering bitterness over how the 1999 earthquake was handled.
LA Times, 2024-4-4 Just recognizing that the fault didn't get near a major population center is probably the most important factor that reduced the damage.  Some residents voiced concerns about the alert system because not everyone was notified.
United Daily (聯合報), 2024-4-4 Why didn't most of Taiwanese receive government's national alert ?   Why did the government make such a serious misjudgment udn.com/news/story/7338/7876798?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2


National Interest, 2024-3-30 : Xi Jinping's statement in December 2023 hinted at possible invasion plans. Experts suggest Taiwan should pivot to insurgency tactics, including bolstering coastal defenses, developing hypersonic weapons, deploying massive numbers of drones, creating electromagnetic spectrum jammers, and distributing small arms widely among the population. Fox News, 2024-3-27 : Taiwan stands as major line of defense against global war with China, A change in Taiwan's status might not directly threaten the U.S. homeland in the immediate term, but it would irreversibly alter regional dynamics in ways that would benefit America's chief geopolitical adversary   New York Times, 2024-3-24 : Larger, more menacing military actions are possible, especially after Mr. Lai's inauguration. Any conciliatory messages in Mr. Lai's presidential inauguration speech were unlikely to shift China's strategy -“The gray zone operations against Taiwan will become more intense" .   Mr. Xi probably won't make any big decisions over Taiwan before the United States' presidential election  War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21 : Military analysts have proposed denying air superiority to China via mobile surface-to-air missiles and drones and creating a “prickly fortress of sea denial” with road-mobile anti-ship missiles; The naval mines make it easier to channel Chinese forces into areas where they are most vulnerable to Taiwan's anti-ship missiles, gun batteries, and drones. 


Taiwan Confirms US Troops on Front-Line Islands Near China

Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-20 Taiwan acknowledges presence of U.S. troops on outlying islands /  The U.S. planned to expand its presence of troops in Taiwan to between 100 and 200 last year, up from roughly 30 in 2022. The U.S. and Taiwan have been largely silent on the deployment as they attempt to avoid agitating Beijing while they work to fortify Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion.
Taiwan News, 2024-3-21 US commander denies permanently stationing troops on Taiwan's outer island


Wall Street Journal, 2024-3-18 : U.S. officials and military scholars have long believed that the expensive hardware is apt to get wiped out by China's much larger military, in the early stages of attack. For the past few years, Taiwan’s procurement, under U.S. pressure, has put more emphasis on asymmetrical weapons such as Harpoon antiship missiles, Himars rocket launchers and mines.  but if China amasses forces around the island in a blockade, or if Beijing's military establishes a firm beachhead on Taiwan, small, short-range weapons could be less effective at degrading the enemy, Taiwan says War On The Rocks, 2024-3-14 : U.S.  public support  for Taiwan, which is as high as it has ever been according to polls, supports aiding Taiwan to defend itself against China in the event of an attack, but consistently opposes any direct military intervention by the United States. Foreign Policy, 2024-3-14 : Taiwan imports  97 percent  of its energy through highly vulnerable maritime shipping routes. Any quarantine, blockade, or invasion of the island by China would devastate its ability to sustain basic services and critical infrastructure—not to mention the factories that produce approximately  90 percent  of the world's most advanced semiconductors. Solutions are in short supply. Financial Times, 2024-3-11 : Frequently, "grey zone", semi-hostile behaviour, is via fishing boats and coastguard vessels on the fringes of Taiwanese waters, designed, it seems, to keep testing and squeezing Taiwan.  China recently sharpened its rhetoric saying it must “fight” Taiwanese independence, rather than “oppose” it, its previous preferred formulation. CNN (2024-3-10) : the Economist declared that Taiwan was “the most dangerous place on Earth.”; The world's most dangerous place has only gotten more dangerous. Perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of China and the reality of America's dominant status made this inevitable, "destined for war" .  In the past, Communist China believed that it could wait (reunification) because time was on its side. But that premise is proving untrue. This issue will need to be managed rather than solved —All three sides should keep talking ... United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5) : After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure. China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional conflict. Associated Press (2024-3-5):  conquest over the self-governing island democracy of Taiwan, driving Indian forces from their disputed border, and asserting control over islands in the East China and South China Sea all on Beijing's list of priorities. USNI.org, 2024-3-1: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense and Military Issues / The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Civil-military relations are strained...Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and its military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, physical safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear in the face of possible PRC armed aggression...renewing U.S. debates about how to allocate limited resources to shore up Taiwan's resilience  New York Times, 2024-2-26: The P.L.A.'s now-normalized presence around Taiwan raises the risk of an accidental confrontation. Taiwan's response has been inconsistent and lacks transparency, which may further embolden Beijing...Taipei's approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent CNN, 2024-2-27: Today Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world hasn’t seen in a century – since before World War Two. Xi's military build-up is, by comparison, larger than Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan combined.his ambitions in nuclear, space, and AI warfare are advancing at lightning speed...  characterized by a high degree of projective self-confidence and a lot less patient on the Taiwan issue.   Financial Times, 2024-2-27: Chinese research ships increase incursions near Taiwan Financial Times, 2024-2-23: In the past, China would only talk about the ‘one-China principle’, but now they have rolled it all into one with the push for unification VOA, 2024-2-23: Taiwan faces tough balancing act as China increases pressure Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry.  So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.

Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-20       foreignaffairs.com/scared-strait  brief

Raymond Kuo, Michael A. Hunzeker, Mark A. Christopher GLASER, WEISS, AND CHRISTENSEN reply
(They) argue that Washington and Taiwan are not doing enough to assure Beijing of their intentions, in the process undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.... providing more assurances will simply embolden Beijing to continue its threatening behavior.  Conditional, credible consequences are now essential to encouraging a less bellicose Chinese policy...when deterrence is needed against a determined and capable rival, assurances that are not reciprocated can quickly become concessions. we did not advocate an “assurance first” strategy that offers “concessions” to appease Beijing... the new military measures we think are needed for deterrence will be less effective if Beijing believes they are aimed at buttressing a unilateral assertion of independence by Taiwan or ... an alliance... China can attack out of fear.  They may believe that Taiwan can safely assert permanent sovereign independence as long as there is sufficient military might in place to dissuade Beijing from attacking. If so, they are hardly alone, but we strongly disagree.


  Financial Times, 2024-2-19: China coastguard boards Taiwan tourist boat. Rare inspection raises tensions around Taipei-controlled island of Kinmen just off the Chinese coast Taiwan national security officials worry about as it could disrupt supplies and undermine public confidence even without reaching the level of a full blockade CNN, 2024-2-19: China ramps up patrols near Taiwan's outlying islands following death of Chinese fishermen.  The patrols are likely to put Chinese coast guard vessels in closer proximity to their Taiwanese counterparts, potentially raising the risk of miscalculation and conflict. Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: A war over the island could easily cause a global depression.   A Chinese seizure of Taiwan could trigger a race among nations to develop their own nuclear arsenals as U.S. security guarantees lost credibility DW, 2024-2-16: Elbridge Colby: Taiwan's military preparation has "lagged behind the scale of the threat" despite some incremental progress. "Not really doing anything near what it would need to do to make itself more defensible" borders on "vaguely suicidal behavior"  CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity,  stability, rather than debates over Taiwan's sovereignty are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world  Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.  Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the US has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to decide how to respond.     full text


the Deaths of Chinese Fishermen That Taiwanese Forces Chased Away - tensions between China and Taiwan reached a new high

GT (China) ,  2024-2-26 Taiwan even used the phrase "rescue explanation of the overturned mainland speedboat" at a press conference, making the accident sound like the mainland fishing boat had accidentally capsized and Taiwan's vessel was there to rescue, blatantly spreading false information.  If the Taiwan authorities continue to disregard the mainland's sincerity, then they will bear the consequences and pay the cost. Calling off the "off-limit" or "restricted" waters in the Xiamen-Kinmen zones, realizing regular law enforcement patrols in the entire Xiamen-Kinmen waters, including boarding inspections of relevant ships  globaltimes.cn/page/202402/1307706.shtml
Associated Press, 2024-2-18 The fishermen's deaths are unusual despite the level of Chinese activity in the waters near Kinmen, which is closer to China than it is to Taiwan's main island
TIME, 2024-2-15 China: Taiwan's officials have long mistreated fishermen from the mainland and forcefully and dangerously seized mainland fishing boats, a pattern it claims led to the recent
Reuters, NBC News, 2024-2-18 China has condemned Taiwan's actions and labeled the death incident "wicked".  The deaths had caused “strong indignation” in China, and there is no such thing as ‘prohibited or restricted waters’.  China will strengthen its law enforcement activities and carry out regular patrols around a small group of Taiwanese-controlled islands off the Chinese coast as tensions rise over the deaths of two Chinese nationals
Daily Express (UK), 2024-2-18 China ramps up coast guard ships in Taiwan waters as tensions rise over fishermen deaths. Tensions between China and Taiwan have reached a new high.
DW (Germany), 2024-2-16 Inevitable Taiwan tensions in 2024
China Daily (China) , 2024-2-19

China: A callous act with disregard for human life. It has caused strong indignation across the mainland ; For many years, the mainland established reception facilities for Taiwan fishermen in numerous coastal areas, provided them assistance such as shelters and supplies, and rescued Taiwan fishing boats and fishermen,In contrast, the DPP Taiwan have, for some time, forcefully detained mainland fishing boats under various pretexts and treated mainland fishermen in a rude and dangerous manner, this was the key reason why the fatal incident occurred.  The mainland reserves the right to take further measures, and Taiwan will bear all consequences.

Taipei Times (Taiwan), 2024-2-16 Taiwan (MAC) : Coast guard's conduct appropriate -  they were legally performing their duties and had not erred in any way.  Chinese fishing vessels have been intruding into Taiwan's restricted or prohibited waters for a while to poach high-priced fish


  Newsweek, 2024-2-8: US Army special forces as a permanent arrangement train Taiwan troops in Penghu, Kinmen and Taoyuan; the permanent presence of American forces on the island was considered a possible trigger for a cross-strait shooting war  TIME , 2024-2-9: In an event of invasion, the first 48 hours are extremely important, because that’s the window within which China will take advantage of its geographic proximity, and it will take some time before the American Navy Indo-Pacific Command can respond to a major contingency,  “That's where the Philippines comes in.” Reuters, 2024-2-6: If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership; Stopping that would require rapid mobilisation -  but more than two million former conscripts receive no ongoing further training   New York Times, 2024-2-5 briefing: China's expanding nuclear arsenal - The weapons could also shape the future of Taiwan — if China gained confidence that it could use their existence to limit Western intervention in any conflict National Interest, 2024-2-2:  hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.


 ◆  the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

  Taiwan China Japan Korea Singapore
Comprehensive Power No.14  down 15.2 2nd 3rd 7th 8th
Economic capability 8th  -1.2   down 13.0 2nd  87.0 3rd   5th 6th
Military Capability 11th  +2.1   up 21.7 2nd   68.1 6th   27.4 5th 9th
Resilience 18th   -5.9 down 24.7 3rd   70.4 11th  10th 14th
Future Resources 12th  up 6.5 2nd   72.9 5th 7th 11th
Diplomatic Influence  22th  -3.9   down 19.4 1st    91.5 3rd 6th 10th
Economic Relationships 12th  +0.6  up 11.1 1st   98.3 3rd 5th 4th
Cultural Influence 13th  -2.2   down 12.6 2nd   47.4 3rd 7th 9th
Defense Networks 16th  down 11.8 7th    23.7 3rd 4th 5th


Bloomberg, TIME, 2024-1-31:China says the U.S. could abandon Taiwan if Trump wins the Presidency; In July, Trump avoided directly answering a query over whether as president he'd defend Taiwan if China attacked.

  New York Times, 2024-1-27:  The truth is that Taiwan hasn't been willing to make deep sacrifices for its own security.  It allocates a smaller share of G.D.P. to defense than the United States, Israel or Estonia; it is only now requiring a year of military conscription (for men); and it is phasing out nuclear power plants, which are critical for resilience in a blockade because they provide homegrown power when imports provide 98 percent of energy National Interest, 2024-1-27: the Atlantic Council reported that Taipei has a potential defensive force of 450,000 troops. Using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders to successfully mount an invasion, China would need more than 1.2 million troops. While an air campaign could bring Taipei to its knees and then the peace table, such an effort would utterly destroy the island's infrastructure in the process Economist, 2024-1-25: China is changing the status quo militarily and on the diplomatic stage. That bodes ill for the future. As China sees it, the more countries that adopt its view of Taiwan, the more cover it has to turn words into action New York Times, 2024-1-24: Some believe — it appears this may be Trump's view — that T.S.M.C. is so valuable that it might tempt China to try to grab Taiwan, and then bring the world to its knees.  Given how difficult it is to move production, the best way to safeguard the manufacturing of chips may be to work harder than ever to deter and avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force Washington Post, 2024-1-17:  The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away.  Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”.  Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises.    New York Times, 2024-1-13: Mr. Lai's victory (in presidential election) forces Mr. Xi to face a lack of progress.  With Taiwan's sense of self and China's expectations in conflict, Mr. Xi is not expected to sit idly by Washington Post, 2024-1-10:  increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States New York Times, 2024-1-9: China suggests that another D.P.P. victory after eight years in power would intensify the risk of conflict. A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election. The rocket with a satellite steered off course into the skies above the atmosphere of southern Taiwan. The Hill, 2024-1-6: Often characterized as a proxy war between the superpowers, the reality of the situation is far more nuanced and indicative of a complex geopolitical chess game where, surprisingly, both the U.S. and China stand to gain regardless of the election's outcome Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-5: U.S. support for Ukraine diverts weapons from Taiwan but demonstrates resolve to China The Globe and Mail, 2024-1-5:The tragedy of Taiwan is that a clash with China is inevitable Telegraph, 2024-1-5: Super aircraft carrier Fujian is nearly ready for a China-Taiwan war New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession.  Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18: although China would respond to a Taiwan declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not ready to undertake such a complicated campaign; a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and intimidation, a low-risk approach, targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is gradually working. Economist, 2023-12-13: There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the us, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the us should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.   Reporters Without Borders (RSF) , 2023-12-13: Taiwan is a country that suffers from one of the lowest trust rates in the media among democracies (28%) and where the media community is often criticised for disregarding journalism ethics... journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of quality news reporting.


Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries

Hong Kong


Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 202,410 (world No.3) US$ 108,250
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 551,190 US$ 273,790
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023) HK$ 36,583 (about TWD147,204) TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14) about TWD 84,000 about TWD 43,000
Market Capitalization  (UDN, 2023-12-14) more than double of Taiwan's about USD 1.7 trillion
At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank.


The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy -  but- Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections The Guardian, 2023-12-9: Cracks are appearing in China's monolithic regime – and its leader might decide a military adventure will strengthen his grip on power Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan).  New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election

western media  Taiwan's presidential election -  could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly.   brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te.  brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27 Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28 China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan"  brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29 Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

western media  Taiwan presidential election -  opposition alliance collapse
New York Times, 2023-11-24 even experienced observers baffled as to why the opposition parties would stage such a public rupture over who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket... , It really defies theories of coalition building.  Lai's party asserts Taiwan's distinctive identity and claims to nationhood, and has become closer to the United States.  China could respond by escalating menacing military activities around Taiwan, which sits roughly 100 miles off the Chinese coast.   brief
Economist, 2023-11-24 polls suggest the flurry of chaotic opposition negotiating has modestly bolstered both Mr Hou and Mr Ko. After eight years in power, the dpp is struggling especially with younger voters, who are suffering from high housing costs and low wages. Some also worry about a possible war with China.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24 There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai winsIt will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats...will impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China.   brief
BBC, 2023-11-24 Mr Lai is not much of a campaigner. His poll ratings have gradually sunk, from over 40% in the summer to barely touching 30% now.   brief
VOA, 2023-11-24 analysts say will be a referendum on China relations. Beijing said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-24 Lai's advantage is largely thanks to disarray in the opposition camp. He has consistently polled around or just above 30 percent.     A win is not guaranteed. Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai’s presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals and grumbling from Taiwanese businesses about lost trade with China;  Lev Nachman:This election is becoming about who voters think is the safest choice for Taiwan。” brief
Reuters, 2023-11-24 China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud,    potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power.
TIME, 2023-11-24 collapse of the alliance is likely to consolidate both the KMT’s and the TPP's vote base on the one hand, as intensified conflicts usually can promote vote base consolidation and unity,  wing voters who have no stable identification with either party will be less likely to vote for [either of] them.”
Wall Street Journal, 2023-11-24 China isn’t backing off TaiwanThe U.S. will wish it had deterred the crisis when faced with these grim choices; Far better to avoid this conflict than to fight it in any form.


  Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi's rhetoric indicates he's getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome. Newsweek, 2023-11-21: an overwhelming majority (7/10) of people in Taiwan do not believe the United States is trustworthy, according to a new poll released on Monday. Most, however, were convinced by America's commitment to the island's safety.   full text


media Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15 Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15 Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Bidenfrom Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16 The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict


  Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion   New Yorker, 2023-11-14: The war in Gaza, along with ongoing U.S. support of Ukraine, has prompted concern in some quarters that Taiwan could be left dangerously vulnerable   Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the DPP's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait

  Bloomberg, 2023-11-10: The US's top general said he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily   BBC, 2023-11-9: Beijing's espionage strategy has intensified and expanded beyond elite military circles. Taiwan did not have a robust system for restricting access to classified information until recently.   Economist, 2023-11-6: Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China; despite huge advances in many areas, it still does not have the troops, equipment, experience, command structures or logistics necessary to be confident of victory in a war over Taiwan  BBC, 2023-11-6:  in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery  -  Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine. There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan    Economist, 2023-10-31: Taiwan's chips give the world an economic reason to protect the island from a Chinese invasion. But now America and China are competing to control the supply of these sophisticated chips. And that puts Taiwan in the middle of the two superpowers   Washington Post, 2023-10-31: China's bellicosity against Taiwan has ratcheted up. China now regularly makes military feints at Taiwan with naval and aerial incursions.    New York Times, 2023-10-29: Xi may decide to strike if he begins to feel that Taiwan is slipping further from his grasp, especially if the United States continues to bolster Taiwan's military and its own forces in the region. Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities    Economist, 2023-10-26: In 2019 Xi Jinping, China's president, gave a speech linking the 1992 consensus with the mainland’s one-China principle and proposed a “one country, two systems” formula for incorporating Taiwan. That speech “set the tone” for a more assertive Chinese policy on Taiwan   Nikkei Asian Review, 2023-10-27: Taiwan still invests in conventional weapons at the expense of asymmetric capabilities, and it's "not clear whether the government has embraced asymmetric warfighting concepts   New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally.   Newsweek, 2023-10-20: Pentagon Lists Six Possible Causes of China-Taiwan War: 1.  Formal Declaration of Independence 2. Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence 3. "internal unrest" in Taiwan 4. Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons 5. Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification 6. Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs full text


Taiwan's presidential election

Newsweek, 2023-10-26 Taiwan Voters Must Choose Between 'War and Peace,' China Says
Economist, 2023-10-26 46% of voters are worried about a possible war between Taiwan and China in the next five years. KMT and TPP would need to work out an acceptable distribution of cabinet members. If they can fix these issues over the next month, Taiwan could be in for a very tight race.
日本Nikkei Asian Review Taiwan's election may open 'window' for better China ties. International Crisis Group warns that conflict risks are rising
Australia Financial Review, 2023-10-26 voters are torn in Taiwan - Inflation, housing affordability, energy prices and scandals are on the mind of the electorate. As well as whether China will invade, of course.
Reuters, 2023-10-26 Foxconn founder Terry Gou lies low in Taiwan election as China tax probe reverberates


  New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence...If the combination of deterrence and reassurance fails and China attacks Taiwan   Newsweek, 2023-10-16: The U.S. has known since no later than 2012——that Chinese surface-to-surface (STS) missiles can destroy U.S. aircraft carriers, or any other military asset that isn't submerged; Taiwan has storage capacity for 11 days of natural gas consumption. A Chinese blockade would force Taiwan's surrender in short order.  full text


Reuters, 2023-10-24 : Who is running to be Taiwan's next president?

LAI CHING-TE Lai and Tsai Ing-Wen say only Taiwan's people can decide their future.
HOU YU-IH strongly denies being pro-Beijing, and will restart talks with Beijing.
KO WEN-JE China should propose a new framework for engagement with Taiwan and explain what Beijing has to offer


  BBC, 2023-10-16: A spooked and lonely Taiwan looks for new friends. Perhaps the most fertile ground for making new friends is in the young democracies of Eastern Europe Increasingly Taipei relied on its chequebook to hold on to a dwindling list of allies, mainly in the form of aid and investment.    AP, Washington Post, 2023-10-12:  the Hamas-Israel war “blew up so suddenly,” prompting Taiwan to up its ability to forecast possible threats. Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine has also raised concerns that China may act against Taiwan, possibly with Moscow's backing   Newsweek,  2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously   VOA News,  2023-10-13: some Taiwanese citizens worry China could see an opportunity to attack Taiwan if Washington were to be dragged into the conflict in the Middle East. Lev Nachman said a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming days is unlikely.    AP, Reuters, 2023-10-10: Taiwan seeks 'peaceful coexistence' with China, president says, Differences between Taiwan and China must be resolved peacefully, and maintaining the status quo is "critical" to ensuring peace   VOA, 2023-10-5: US warns China cost for blockading Taiwan to be 'Very High'  BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China.    CNN, 2023-10-3: Taiwan gears up for its presidential election in January, with the island's foreign policy and relations with China a central issue in the race alongside more bread and butter issues like the cost of living and stagnant wages    The Diplomat, 2023-10-3: US support could prove to be a sore point in Washington's approach to regional capitals if relations deteriorate between Taiwan and Southeast Asian nations over human rights violations - the way Taiwan treats its large population of migrant workers has far-reaching ramifications  AP, 2023-10-3:  a decades-old agreement between Taipei and Beijing means that Taiwanese teams can only compete internationally if they don't use the name - or flag - of Taiwan...China has strayed in recent years from the agreement to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei” at international sporting events. Official Chinese media now call it “China Taipei” - suggesting it is part of China - instead of “Chinese Taipei,” which implies more of an ethnic or cultural similarity.  full text

  Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

NewsWeek, 2023-9-29 A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.  Policy experts in the U.S.  have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so
CNN, 2023-9-28 While the Taiwan Strait might be too shallow for submarines to operate in, the vessels could be most useful when deployed to target Chinese warships in the Bashi channel – which separates Taiwan from the Philippines – and the waters between Taiwan and Japan’s westernmost islands.  China has planned for a major naval engagement with the US outside the first island chain, around the Philippine Sea”.
BBC, 2023-9-28 National University of Singapore Drew Thompson:  the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China...The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
Defense News, 2023-9-29 Reuters has also reported that that Taiwan had recruited engineers and retired submariners from the U.S., U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, Spain and Canada to work on the program
Forbes, 2023-9-28 In CSIS's war games, Chinese escorts, aircraft and submarines usually sank around a fifth of the deployed subs every three or four days throughout the weekslong war. In the end, perhaps a dozen or more subs lay wrecked at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, tombs for thousands of submariners.
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30 Some see the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program as a poor use of scarce defense resources on a prestige project ;   The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.
 CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”. Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.".


   Economist, 2023-9-26: Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,... the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and could be a decisive bloc.   The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute warns that the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and lethal set of capabilities than it does nowChina has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained.   full text


  Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues

Advantages  including geography and climate.
Challenges (1)  the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan.
Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  At a societal level, it is not clear what costs in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear

  In Times Higher Education 2024, National Taiwan University ranks behind Asian countries - China, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, S. Korea.   In Quacquarelli Symonds,QS  UK 2024, National Taiwan University ranks behind Asian countries - China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, S. Korea, Malaysia.  In CWUR 2023 National Taiwan University ranks behind countries of Asia & Pacific, Japan, S. Korea, China, Australia, Israel, Singapore.   In Nature Index 2023, National Taiwan University ranks No.208 behind China, Japan, Singapore, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, India.


  New York Times, 2023-9-18:  China sends record number of military planes near Taiwan. China is also testing and eroding the island's vigilance, seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's military might.  Taiwan expert: The sorties appeared to signal “China's dissatisfaction with the recent developments in strengthening military and economic and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States” Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-9-14:  Many experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too costly for China's already shrinking economy  given the inevitable global backlash.   The capital city can reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA forces, every Taiwan citizen should be a resistance member : Preparing for a Chinese occupation    Financial Times, 2023-9-15:  opinion polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's assurances.  Taiwan opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments, Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more explicit backing from Washington.  full text



China's economic crisis     news.yahoo.com/china-economic-woes-could-raise-220300203.html  Michael Martina   businessinsider.com/joe-biden-china-unlikely-invade-taiwan-economy-property-crisis-g20-2023-9   Huileng Tan

Reuters, 2023-9-12 :  the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China says China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan
Insider, 2023-9-11: Biden says China is unlikely to invade Taiwan now because Beijing just too busy with its own economic crisis

  Associated Press, 2023-9-9: The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping territorial claims Washington Examiner, 2023-9-6:  Former President  Donald Trump  hinted that he would not order a U.S. military intervention against  China  were it to attack  Taiwan   American Legion, 2023-9-6: Some predictions have estimated war could break out as early as 2029.  Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor, acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought, research and analysis. Still, she says, it's a situation in flux.   Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.   CNN (2023-8-30): US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program typically used for sovereign nations  The Hill (2023-9-1): the first time the U.S. has provided military assistance under FMF to Taiwan and the second time it's given it to a non-nation-state, the first being to the African Union. Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30:  Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan's defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure. Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29: Ramaswamy says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a nation.  Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the island.  No other presidential candidate is willing to commit to militarily defending Taiwan  full text



 Taiwanese Divided on US Military Sales /  VOA News , 2023-9-6

 66.5% of the respondents support U.S. military sales to Taiwan
43.1% of respondents think U.S. military sales to Taiwan will further increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Whereas 37.8% think U.S. military sales can help maintain peace between China and Taiwan
Taiwan rarely has the autonomy to decide what types of weapons it wants to purchase from the U.S. Rather, the deliverables often seem to have been “decided” for Taiwan

there are often deeper political meanings behind U.S. military sales to Taiwan.  These military sales should be conducted more discreetly, rather than publicly announcing these programs

 the U.S. provides more offensive weapons for Taiwan through military sales, they believe it increases the risks of prompting a potential Chinese military attack on Taiwan.



 Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier... many Taiwan's people didn't want to believe in the possibility of a full-scale invasion.  In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan’s aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves.


Taiwan presidency -  Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition)

BBC, 2023-8-29 Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten. But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a single candidate.  Now Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways
Economist, 2023-8-29 The opposition would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect.
Washington Post, 2023-8-28 Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.
Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25 analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics.
Reuters, 2023-8-28 Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of office.
AP, The Hill, 2023-8-28 Terry Gou announces run for Taiwan presidency. He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote,“I will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”.  He has received criticism that he was splitting the vote


  Reuters, 2023-8-25: Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft entering Taiwan's "response" zone,  Taiwan could not judge whether China's drills that started Saturday had formally ended   (Reuters, 2023-8-26: Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone, which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.)   Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-25: analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics. full text


US Congress CRS Report, 2023-8-24  - Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues

 Civil military relations are strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, ... Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. It is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear ...
persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack.  If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond
many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack.  observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.


TIME, 2023-8-21 :  China stops importing Taiwan's mangoes after Beijing announced naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S., having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an interview with Bloomberg  Washington Post, 2023-8-20:  The election of a third consecutive DPP administration would confirm that Beijing’s attempts to bring Taiwan under its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing.  Although Lai is currently leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top contenders chose one to rally around  New York Times, 2023-8-19:  In warning to Taiwan, China Announces joint air and sea drills, so far, China's response after Mr. Lai's visiting the US appears more muted than it was in April, or last August, Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's favor by pushing more support to his party in presidential election New York Times, 2023-8-12:  Taiwan vice president's visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future.     New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over" New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. full text


  Lai Ching-te 'stopover'

New York Times (2023-8-14 news brief, 2023-8-12) A Taiwanese presidential contender walks a fine line... it's likely that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real conflict over its future. nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/asia/taiwan-us-china-lai-ching-te.html
NPR (2023-8-12) Taiwan's Vice President is stopping by the U.S. this week, under China's watchful eyeU.S officials pointedly refer to Lai's trip as a transit, meaning a stop for logistical, rather than political, purposes.  
DW (2023-8-12) Beijing labeled Lai  — a separatist and a "troublemaker."
BBC ( 2023-8-14) China accused Washington of engaging Taiwan in political activities under the guise of a stopover.  Mr Lai's visit comes at a low point in US-China relations, with Taiwan emerging as the biggest flashpoint.  Mr Lai has previously called himself - to Beijing's displeasure - a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence".  bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66495368?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA)   Derek Cai
France 24 ( 2023-8-14) China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington
CNN (2023-8-13) China calls him a “troublemaker through and through.”. China deplores and strongly condemns the US decision to arrange the so-called ‘stopover'.
 AFP (2023-8-13) China on Sunday vowed "resolute and forceful measures" over a weekend trip by Taiwan Vice President William Lai to the United States

Lai has been far more outspoken about independence than Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, to whom Beijing is already hostile as she refuses to accept its view that Taiwan is a part of China.   news.yahoo.com/china-vows-forceful-response-over-035750831.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 Wall Street Journal (2023-8-12) China's leaders have more to think about as they weigh a response.  While it serves Beijing's interests to have better relations with Washington at this moment,” that doesn't mean the Chinese leadership would shy from taking strong action on Taiwan, if they deem it necessary  msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-visit-by-taiwan-vice-president-puts-china-in-a-bind/ar-AA1fbCxI   Chun Han Wong, Joyu Wang, Charles Hutzler
VOA (2023-8-11) experts think Beijing will launch a military response to Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., but the scale will depend on how "official-looking" his trip is. "This includes who he meets with, what he says, and how public those meetings are" ... any reaction deemed too provocative could help increase Lai's chance of winning the election. However, she added that Beijing also worries about sending the wrong signal if its responses are deemed too weak.  voanews.com/a/analysts-us-taipei-aim-to-keep-taiwan-vp-transit-stops-low-key-/7220905.html


 New York Times, 2023-8-8:  the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles) being central to future conflicts  — is under a shadow.  This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct  JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report  about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression. New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will  not  not  invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"     The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems”. Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis. Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen   Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year."  , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper   full text


Fox News, 2023-7-28  
The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler



Chinese military  Taiwan's military
The Guardian, 2023-8-7: the more dramatic parts of China's documentary on Taiwan invasion are pledges by PLA soldiers from various divisions to give up their lives in a potential attack on Taiwan.   ── “If the conditions were too difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we would use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our [landing] forces,” said  a frogman; “fighter jet would be the last missile rushing towards the enemy" said a pilot.   .theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/chinese-soldiers-pledge-to-sacrifice-their-lives-in-documentary-on-taiwan-invasion  Associated Press Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern, ... “A lot of young people who signed up for the four-year volunteer force decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early because they say they had come for the money—not to fight and not to die"wsj.com/articles/taiwan-china-ukraine-russia-hong-kong-military-war-517b87d?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo    Yaroslav Trofimov    Joyu Wang


#MeToo in Taiwan

New York Times, 2023-7-27 our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html 
Reuters, 2023-7-28 Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence.   Victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships.   reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/   Sarah Wu   


  Financial Times, 2023-7-24:  so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself.  Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics.  Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.  But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan'     National Interest, 2023-7-15:  With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...  it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... National Review, 2023-7-15: Obviously Xi is pushing for the US to treat Taiwan as a local conflict between two fuedng Chinese neighbors and stay out of the fight  Reuters, 2023-7-14:  US needs to speed up delivery of weapons like air defence systems and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan  in the coming yearsMilley said the United States was looking at whether it needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the Asia Pacific.  ◆   CNN, 2023-7-14:  it may become too late for Washington to come to Taipei's rescue if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station around the island. The longer the delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too slim to achieve success if its forces move too late  ◆  Bloomberg, 2023-7-13: Taiwan #MeToo scandals push Tsai government to toughen equality laws.  The scandals contrast with the island's image as one of Asia's most progressive societies: 1st to legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture may lead to victim shaming.”◆   CNN, 2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General  summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow.   Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential goods would pile up and inflation would surge  The Guardian, 2023-7-9: while the war in Ukraine has underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000) of 2 million reservists are thought to be combat-ready...  the drills lack urban warfare or modern weaponry instruction.


National Interest, 2023-7-16    -   Willing to fight ?

China Taiwan
a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ...  another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites.  Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.


  Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7: Taiwan, is one of the world's most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy. Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine, blockade,...    Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.  While Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield". Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.  The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern.  A lot of young people who signed up for the volunteer force decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early because " they had come for the money—not to fight and not to die" ◆  RAND, Jun. 2023: Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat by China within 90 days  — a posited minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a robust U.S. military intervention, China... would allow it to eventually subjugate the island.  NPR, 2023-7-3:  More than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation. CBS News, 2023-7-2:  if China invaded Taiwan, it could very well kick off in outer space, with both sides targeting the other's satellites that enable precision-guided weaponry. Cyber attacks on American cities and the sabotage of ports on the West Coast of the U.S. mainland could  follow ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29:   if a war did break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are needed.  National Interest, 2023-6-29:  it could require considerable time—potentially several months—for the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power to augment forward... the weaker Taiwan's political leadership and its military are, the earlier and more robust the U.S. intervention must be to maximize the prospect that Taiwan will avoid defeat. TIME, 2023-6-26:  Taiwan needs to overhaul its reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their operations away from China FoxNews, 2023-6-26:  Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's cooperation against  Lai Ching-te Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21:  China has deep global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly costly for all parties. G7 responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support economic countermeasures against China and opt for a de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion would likely be divided   Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:  If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific    FoxNews, 2023-6-19: Blinken says US 'does not support Taiwan independence' ◆ New York Post, 2023-6-19: Blinken ruffles feathers by stating US "does not support Taiwan independence" – as an inappropriate kowtow to America's greatest adversary.   Bloomberg, 2023-6-16 : Henry Kissinger believes military conflict between China and Taiwan is likely if tensions continue on their current course The Diplomat, 2023-6-17:  Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense reform in all but name, War on the Rocks: Instead, Taiwan is now planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior People's Liberation Army   Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction.  For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ...  National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States   Washington Post, 2023-6-14: Biden and Xi recognize that war between the two nations would be suicidal for both. They understand that the most dangerous flash point is Taiwan. While the nations’ differences over Taiwan are irreconcilable, irreconcilable does not mean unmanageable    L.A. Times, 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's relationship with China is one of the most contentious and defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status quo, politicians are deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own parties.      full text   


National Interest, 2023-6-20  nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
“How confident are you that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to start a war against Taiwan?”
a web survey (implemented by Macromill Embrain)

  overall DPP KMT TPP
not at all confident 26.61% 3.23% 55.63% 32.12%
not very confident 37.92 23.12 29.38 48.91
fairly 27.96 48.92 12.50 16.79
very confident 7.51 24.73 2.50 2.19




pic.: No.1 "comment Taiwan" on AOL, 2023-7-4, 2023-6-28, 2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-14, No.1 or top "comment Taiwan" on AOL, 2022-12-12, 2022-9-11, 2022-8-13, 2022-8-7, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16, 2022-5-7, 2022-4-26, 2022-4-10, 2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29, 2022-3-22, 2022-3-9, 2022-3-6, 2022-3-4, 2022-2-8, 2021-10-8, 2021-10-1, 2021-9-27, 2021-9-19, 2021-9-7, 2021-6-27, 2021-5-1, 3-8-2021, 2-20-2021,1-18-2020,  12-05-2019; No.3 at 2022-7-19,  top 3 on US Yahoo, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-19


#MeToo in Taiwan

  New York Times, 2023-6-25: A torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions about the state of women’s rights on an island democracy ... entrenched sexism that leaves women vulnerable at work, and a culture that is quick to blame victims and cover up accusations against powerful mennytimes.com/2023/06/25/world/asia/taiwan-harassment-metoo.html
CNN, 2023-6-10:
The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment.   Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else.  Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles,  will it be the real #MeToo moment.  edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html
 The Guardian, 2023-6-8:  The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.  theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk
 ABC Australia, 2023-6-24: Young women, since they were children, they are already taught to protect themselves, or try to tolerate this kind of inconvenience (accept harassment).  Sexual harassment and sexual assault are prevalent in all kinds of power relationships. The impact of the Netflix show Wave Makers (造浪者)has been huge, and it resonated with young Taiwanese women, s

criptwriter Chien says the show struck a chord because of the prevalence of sexual harassment in Taiwanese society. 
 Washington Post, 2023-6-7:  The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang.  people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment.    msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH    Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin
Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7: Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling partywsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang  Wenxin Fan
Women's rights








economist / The world's most liveable cities in 2023
City liveability index, Mar. 2023   -   Taipei ranks world No. 65, Asia's No.14


cities in Asia

90+ Melbourne, Sydney, Aucland, Adelaide, Osaka(Japan), Perth, Tokyo(Japan), Brisbane, Wellington, Singapore
 80-90 Seoul(Korea), Hong Kong(Chn),  Busan(Korea), Taipei (Taiwan), Kaohsiung, Taichung
60-80 Noumea, Nantong, SuZhou, Beijing, ShenYang, Shanghai, etc
top 5 cities: Vienna 98.4,  Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney, Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96
Score out of 100*  five categories: stability, health care, culture and environment, education and infrastructure.


TIME, 2023-6-7:  in the event of a potential conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, most Europeans would prefer to stay out of it.… It's only when such events happen when we would really be able to see whether European perceptions and attitudes have changed or not  Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown  Washington Post, 2023-5-31:  Why are tensions so high?  China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979. ◆ IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers   New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way Washington Post, 2023-5-29: Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. Yes, China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia.  A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places. Reuters, 2023-5-27:  Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says Sky News (Australia), 2023-5-28: nuclear umbrella push divides Taiwan Analysts warn the agreement could be globally catastrophic as it would mean the US could use nuclear weapons if Taiwan was attacked. Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said The Guardian, 2023-5-22: over 90% of the world's semiconductors are made in the place many US officials think could be the site of the next global conflict: Taiwan. US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war The strategy seems to be working. Reuters, 2023-5-20: "war is not an option", Taiwan president says Washington Examiner, 2023-5-19: The top-line fact in the weapons to Ukraine or Taiwan debate Taiwan's defense spending remains absurdly inadequate. It's also feasible that Taiwan may elect a new government in 2024 that lacks sufficient resolve to fight China. In contrast, Ukraine has shown not just the resolve to fight against overwhelming odds, but the spirit to win. ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17  :  faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader (Hou Yu-ih) with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.    Washington Post, 2023-5-18:it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine   The Hill, 2023-5-17:  Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.  Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence New York Times, 2023-5-11: Taiwan's world-dominating microchip sector was built by its strategic asset, TSMC’s skilled employees. But a demographic crisis, demanding work culture and flagging interest threaten its lead   Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11:  the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.  —   deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11:  Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism  19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade Taiwan News, 2023-5-9:  Defense minister says Taiwan will not let US 'blow up TSMC' during Chinese attack , in response to a suggestion by U.S. Congressman Seth Moulton that the U.S. should warn China that it would "blow up" Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) if it attacked Taiwan. Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said   le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is   The Nation, 2023-4-26:  A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it.   AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering.  Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan. CNN, 2023-4-20:  complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military   New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other   Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle   TIME, 2023-4-12:  Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island.




Reuters Report (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023/taiwan)
Trust in Taiwan's news overall: 28%; Trust in news I use: 35%; Trust score in 2017/2018: 31%, score in 2022/2023: 28%.   Due to the intense competition in the media market and the interventions of owners, trust in news (28%) remains among the lowest in our survey. In the polarised media landscape, many brands with political colours are less trusted, whereas business publications tend to have higher levels of trust. PTS (55%) remains one of the most trusted brands this year, after internal improvements.

 RSF, <Reporters Sans Frontieres>, France, 2023: Taiwan's World Press Freedom Index - score 75.54, rank 35.




Elbridge  Colby, a leading voice for a new “pivot to Asia.” John Walters, Hudson Institute CEO
He wants to see the U.S. concentrate efforts on deterring war in the Pacific, even if that means abandoning European interests. the U.S. simply does not have the capability for building the alliance system Walters envisions or supplying it with the requisite arms and ammunition to fight wars with two great powers at once; It will take well into the 2030s before we're in much better shape; before Chinese leader Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan, the U.S. should put in place immediate measures to attack the key segments of that CCP economic and military power Ukraine Is No Distraction From Asia.”;  the US can fend off Russian and Chinese revanchism simultaneously; aggression must be met by strong American alliances with key countries, including both Taiwan and Ukraine; the kinds of weapons needed in Ukraine and Taiwan are different enough that supplying one will not substantially affect the other; most Republicans on Capitol Hill remain strong supporters of UkraineUkraine will help generate (US) domestic resolve to fight for Taiwan. 
washingtonexaminer.com/news/inside-right-debate-ukraine-taiwan  2023-6-1




discrimination in Taiwan

Taipei Times, 2023-6-12: Taiwanese government actively courts Chinese tourists by the hundred thousand, immigration authorities hand out insult after insult to people whose skins are a bit too brown... the reality of its suicidally discriminatory immigration policies is painful for those of us who live and work here. Besides, over 1,000 nurses, have come from Hong Kong and are unable to obtain residency to work




Associated Press, 2023-5-2: Unclear who would help Taiwan in a war: Taiwan foreign minister

Japan S. Korea
 Asahi News, 2023-5-1: Asahi poll: 80% of voters said they are worried that Japan would be caught up in the armed conflict if the United States and China clashed over Taiwan, 56% want only SDF rear support to U.S. in event of Taiwan crisis. Which approaches to prioritize for its national security?  70% selected “deepening the relationship with China,” far more than the 26 % who chose “strengthening defense capabilities.”

Responsible Statecraft, 2023-5-2: It is naïve, however, to expect Japan to automatically fight China if the United States intervened militarily.   If Japan were to assume a neutral stance, China might be encouraged to use military force to realize its aim to bring Taiwan under its control. Recent war games conducted by the CSIS suggests that the United States would lose a conflict over Taiwan if it were unable to access bases in Japan. 



 The Diplomat, 2023-3-21: South Korea Will Stay Out of a Taiwan Strait War  Seoul’s desire to limit the damage in its relations with Beijing is strong enough that strikes on South Korean territory that killed only Americans would not necessarily bring South Korea into the war as a combatant against China.
South Korea would limit its support to actions near the low end of the spectrum – strong diplomatic statements, symbolic economic sanctions, and behind-the-lines re-supply of U.S. forces returning from battle.  


Axios, 2023-5-2: South Korea would be unlikely to consider sending troops into the Taiwan Strait. But the U.S. could pull some of its own 30,000-strong contingent out of Korea, and would likely expect  Seoul to play a key support role.  That could leave Seoul exposed to retaliation from China, and more vulnerable to North Korea


  asahi.com/ajw/articles/14898395  responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/05/02/should-japan-defend-taiwan/    k. sugawa   thediplomat.com/2023/03/south-korea-will-stay-out-of-a-taiwan-strait-war/    axios.com/2023/05/02/taiwan-war-us-philippines-japan-korea-australia  d. lawler, b. a. ebrahimian





Taiwan's President  is expected to meet Speaker McCarthy, Beijing will decide how strongly it wants to respond

New York Times, 2023-4-6 Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China  nytimes.com/2023/04/06/world/asia/taiwan-mccarthy-china.html  Chris Buckley and 
New York Times, 2023-4-5 Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China   nytimes.com/2023/04/05/us/politics/mccarthy-tsai-taiwan-china.html
New York Times, 2023-3-29 President Tsai Ing-wen risks a show of force from Beijing Beijing just lured Honduras to abandon diplomatic ties with Taipei in what many saw as pre-emptive punishment for her trip. nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/asia/taiwan-president-us-china.html
Bloomberg, 2023-3-29 Tsai is unlikely to use this moment to “push boundaries" , partly to avoid "accusations of being provocative by Taiwanese voters.". Any Tsai meeting with McCarthy "puts the ball in Beijing's court"  news.yahoo.com/china-warns-taiwan-leader-mccarthy-031352507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
CNN, 2023-3-30 Beijing warns of ‘severe impact’ on US-China relations as Taiwan’s leader lands in New York
CNBC, 2023-3-30 Taiwan leader's meeting with McCarthy could provoke a ‘big’ reaction from China, says analyst
Washington Post, 2023-3-29 When Honduras switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last week, it put the diplomatic future of Taiwan in a more precarious position washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/honduras-taiwan-china-allies-relations/
Newsweek, 2023-3-31 "Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global standing,""At the same time, Ma's visit to China shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful solution."  msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-two-taiwan-trips-mean-for-fate-of-most-dangerous-us-china-issue/ar-AA19komh  Tom O'Connor
Bloomberg, 2023-3-31 The expected California meeting with McCarthy was considered a concession: At the request of the Taiwanese government, McCarthy decided to put off a potential trip to Taiwan until after presidential elections next year and instead host Taiwan’s leader on US soil.  msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-tries-to-keep-china-calm-while-taiwans-tsai-visits-the-us/ar-AA19il7y   Jenny Leonard and Cindy Wang
The Guardian, 2023-3-28 (ex president) Ma Ying-jeou's "we are all Chinese" message is starkly at odds with vision of Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington.   Taiwan caught between superpowers as rival leaders visit China and US theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/taiwan-leaders-visit-china-us-ma-ying-jeou-tsai-ing-wenTaipei




Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns

AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/   ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy.   msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h





Pew Research org., 2023-3-2
US respondents' views about a hypothetical conflict between China, Taiwan differ by question wording

  a conflict between China and Taiwan China invade Taiwan Taiwan declared Independence, China invaded
support China 8% 7 10
support Taiwan 45% 49 40
remain neutral 47% 44 50
when the scenario involves Taiwan declaring independence. Under this hypothetical, 46% of Democratic respondents say the U.S. should support Taiwan, compared with 28% of Republicans.




General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025?    The Hill, 2023-2-2, USA Today, 2023-2-3, FoxNews, 2023-2-3

US generals, officials, experts, law-makers China invade Taiwan by ?
CIA Director William Burns Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Jan. 2023) China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands — by 2027
Adm. Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command predicted war by 2027
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday (Oct., 2022) Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or a potentially a 2023 window
Secretary of State Antony Blinken (Oct., 2022) on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner (July, 2022) “only a matter of time”
Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command 2025
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China relations at the Center for a New American Security, before 2027,  a crisis or incident that could spiral out of control
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.”
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) 2025
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith (D-Wash.)  the 2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not inevitable” but “highly unlikely,”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey 2025 ,  a“bad judgment”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Nov. 2022) it will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability to invade Taiwan.




The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about to eruptTaiwan, North Korea, Iran and Palestine are all potential flashpoints  

NBC, 2022-12-27:
Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China

WSJ, 2022-12-27 a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP2022-12-27 The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however,  only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27  Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27 It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant   washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28