pic.
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Latest news ◆
Economist, 2023-9-26:
Taiwanese voters will in effect be asked to decide whether
Taiwan should remain aligned with America in strengthening
deterrence against a possible Chinese invasion,...
the one-fifth of voters who are not aligned with any party and
could be a decisive bloc.◆
The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: Asia-Pacific security chair at
Hudson Institute warns that
the PLA has never fielded a more comprehensive and
lethal set of capabilities than it does now.
China has been preparing for
the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or
1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's
semi-autonomy, experts explained.
☉full text
◆
Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues
news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues
Advantages
including
geography and climate.
Challenges
(1) the PLA now is able, or will soon
be able, to execute a range of military campaigns
against Taiwan.
(2) Civil-military relations are
strained...
The archipelago's
energy, food, water, internet, and other critical
infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external
disruption.
Taiwan's
civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and
Taiwan's
military struggles to recruit, retain, and train
personnel.
At
a societal level, it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, safety and
security, and lives—Taiwan's
people would be willing or able to bear.
◆
New York Times, 2023-9-18:
China sends
record number
of military planes
near Taiwan. China is also testing and
eroding the island's vigilance,
seeking to wear away its military equipment and personnel, and
remind Taiwanese politicians and voters of China's
military might.
Taiwan expert:
The sorties appeared to
signal “China's dissatisfaction with
the recent developments in strengthening military and economic
and trade cooperation between Taiwan and the United States”◆Modern War Institute at West Point,
2023-9-14: Many
experts incorrectly predicted that an invasion would be too
costly for China's already shrinking
economy given the inevitable global backlash.The capital city can
reasonably be anticipated to quickly fall into the grip of PLA
forces, every Taiwancitizenshould be a
resistance member : Preparingfor a Chinese occupation◆
Financial Times, 2023-9-15:
opinion
polls in Taiwan show public confidence is shaky in Washington's
assurances. Taiwan
opposition candidate to push US for clarity on defence commitments,
Some US officials are likely to bristle at KMT demands for more
explicit backing from Washington. ☉full text
China's
economic crisisnews.yahoo.com/china-economic-woes-could-raise-220300203.html
Michael Martina
businessinsider.com/joe-biden-china-unlikely-invade-taiwan-economy-property-crisis-g20-2023-9
Huileng Tan
◆Reuters,2023-9-12 : the
Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China says
China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military
action toward Taiwan
◆ Insider,
2023-9-11: Biden says China is unlikely to invade Taiwan now
because Beijing just too busy with its own economic crisis
◆
Associated Press, 2023-9-9:
The U.S. and the Canadian navies sailed two warships through the
Taiwan Strait on Saturday, in a challenge to China's sweeping
territorial claims
◆Washington
Examiner, 2023-9-6:
Former President Donald
Trump hinted that he would not order a U.S. military
intervention against China were it to attack Taiwan
◆American
Legion, 2023-9-6:
Some predictions have estimated war could break out as
early as 2029.
Dr. Shelley Rigger, a Davidson College professor,
acknowledges that such forecasts are made with careful thought,
research and analysis. Still, she says, it's
a situation in flux. ◆Chicago
Tribune, AP,
VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's
government is racing to counter China, but
many on the island say they don't feel
the threat.That may be partly due to
the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.
Many say they are attracted to their much larger
neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture.
Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their
backyard.
◆ CNN
(2023-8-30):
US approves first-ever military aid to Taiwan through program
typically used for sovereign nations◆The
Hill (2023-9-1):the first time the U.S. has provided military assistance under FMF to Taiwan and the
second time it's given it to a non-nation-state, the first being to the African
Union.
◆
Council
on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30: Taiwan Announced a Record
Defense Budget: Butmost
important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the
island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest
growth in Taiwan's defense budget in half a decade is coming at
a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront
the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In
practice, Taiwan needs procuring more
anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining
capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater
vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and
hardening critical infrastructure.◆
Wall Street Journal, 2023-8-29:
Ramaswamy
says The US currently doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a
nation. Democrates and Republicans both unquestioningly endorse the "One
China" policy and embrace "strategic ambiguity" toward the
island. No other presidential candidate is willing to
commit to militarily defending Taiwan
☉full text
◆Taiwanese
Divided on US Military Sales/
VOA News , 2023-9-6
♦
66.5% of the respondents support U.S.
military sales to Taiwan ♦
43.1% of respondents think U.S. military sales to
Taiwan will further increase tension across the Taiwan Strait. Whereas
37.8% think U.S. military sales can help maintain peace between China
and Taiwan ♦
Taiwan rarely has the autonomy to decide what
types of weapons it wants to purchase from the U.S. Rather, the
deliverables often seem to have been “decided” for Taiwan
♦
there are often deeper political meanings behind
U.S. military sales to Taiwan. These
military sales should be conducted more discreetly, rather than publicly
announcing these programs
♦
the U.S. provides more offensive weapons for
Taiwan through military sales, they believe it increases the risks of
prompting a potential Chinese military attack on Taiwan.
◆Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:
full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are
other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on
the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier...
many
Taiwan's people didn't want to
believe in the possibility of a full-scale invasion.In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan’s
aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done
by the Taiwanese. We can’t be
more Taiwanese than they are themselves.
Taiwan presidency
- Lai (DPP), Ko, Hou, Gou (opposition)
◆ BBC,
2023-8-29
Opinion polls also show that around 40% of voters are pretty solid
supporters of the ruling DPP. That means the ruling party can be beaten.
But to have any chance the opposition would have to unite around a
single candidate. Now
Taiwan's opposition vote will be split three ways
◆ Economist,
2023-8-29
The opposition
would not end the tensions, but it would probably reduce them by
placating China. A win for Mr Lai, might have the opposite effect.
◆ Washington Post,
2023-8-28
Taiwanese voters
could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is
between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political
independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as
the only viable path.
◆ Wall Street Journal,
2023-8-25
analysts said Lai's lead could
erode by the time voters cast their ballots in January, given Taiwan's
reputation for volatile politics.
◆ Reuters,
2023-8-28
Any split on the non-DPP side would mean Lai's sure victory in January.
Terry Gou's main theme in his pre-campaign events has been
that the only way to avoid war with China, which claims
Taiwan as its own territory, is to get the DPP out of
office.
◆ AP, The Hill,
2023-8-28
Terry Gou
announces run for Taiwan presidency.
He has received criticism
that
he was splitting the vote,“I
will definitely not allow Taiwan to become the next Ukraine”.
He has received criticism
that he was splitting the vote
◆
Reuters, 2023-8-25:
Taiwan
reported renewed Chinese
military activity around the island, including 13 aircraft
entering Taiwan's "response" zone,
Taiwan
could not judge whether
China's drills that started Saturday had formally ended (Reuters,
2023-8-26:
Taiwan has not reported any Chinese military aircraft in its territorial air
space, though it has said planes have come close to island's contiguous zone,
which is within 24 nautical miles (44 km) of its coast.)◆ Wall Street Journal,
2023-8-25:analysts said Lai's lead could erode by the time voters cast their
ballots in January, given Taiwan's reputation for volatile politics.☉full text
US CongressCRS Report, 2023-8-24 -
Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481
♣
Civil military relations are
strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s
energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems
are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is
insufficient, ... Taiwan's
military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.
It is not clear what costs—in terms of
economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's
people would be willing or able to bear
... ♣ persistent,
low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's
military advantages and readiness...
unmanned combat aerial
vehicle flights near and encircling
Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles
in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main
island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure
preparations for an attack. If the PLA were to
use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could
significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond ♣many
observers argue that Taiwan's military is
insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack.observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely
delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.
◆
TIME, 2023-8-21 : China stops importing
Taiwan's mangoesafter Beijing announced
naval and airforce drills as a “stern warning” to what it called
Taiwan independence forces. It has reacted angrily to the
transit of Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te through the U.S.,
having also condemned his remarks about Taiwan’s status in an
interview with Bloomberg ◆
Washington Post, 2023-8-20: The election of a third consecutive DPP
administration would confirm that Beijing’s attempts to bring Taiwan under
its closer control through coercion and intimidation are failing. Although Lai is currently
leading in the polls, opposition candidates who are much friendlier to
Beijing might be able to amass a majority if the three top
contenders chose one to rally around◆New York Times, 2023-8-19:In
warning to Taiwan, China Announces
joint air and sea drills, so far,
China's response after Mr. Lai's
visiting the US appears more muted
than it was in April, or last August,
Chinese leaders may grasp that menacing, large-scale maneuvers
around Taiwan could work in Mr. Lai's
favor by pushing more support to his party in
presidential election ◆
New York Times, 2023-8-12:Taiwan
vice president's visit, however low-key, is also likely
to prompt an escalation of Chinese military flights and naval
maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing into focus the risks of real
conflict over its future.◆New York Times, 2023-8-11:large-scale missile attacks or
saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air
defense systems. A
real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forcesimply
that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By
the time , it will be, more or less, over"◆New York Times, 2023-8-8:In the political
debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of
the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique
origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even
though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's
population, they’re an important part in the narrative of
Taiwanese nationhood.
☉full text
◆ Lai Ching-te
'stopover'
New York Times (2023-8-14 news brief, 2023-8-12)
A Taiwanese presidential contender walks
a fine line... it's likely
that he'll be more muted...Expect restraint...And his visit, however low-key, is also likely to prompt an escalation
of Chinese military flights and naval maneuvers near Taiwan, bringing
into focus the risks of real conflict over its future.nytimes.com/2023/08/12/world/asia/taiwan-us-china-lai-ching-te.html
NPR (2023-8-12)
Taiwan's Vice President is stopping by the U.S. this
week, under China's watchful eye，U.S
officials pointedly refer to Lai's trip as a transit, meaning a stop for
logistical, rather than political, purposes.
DW (2023-8-12)
Beijing labeled Lai — a separatist and a "troublemaker."
BBC (
2023-8-14)
China accused Washington of
engaging Taiwan in political activities under the guise of a stopover.Mr Lai's visit comes at a low point in US-China relations, with
Taiwan emerging as the biggest flashpoint.Mr Lai has previously called himself - to Beijing's displeasure -
a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence".
bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-66495368?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA)
Derek
Cai
France 24 (
2023-8-14)
China considers Taiwan its most
important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between
Beijing and Washington
CNN (2023-8-13)
China
calls him a “troublemaker through and
through.”. China
deplores and strongly condemns the US decision to arrange the so-called
‘stopover'.
AFP (2023-8-13)
China on Sunday vowed "resolute
and forceful measures" over a weekend trip by Taiwan Vice President
William Lai to the United States
Lai has been far more outspoken about independence than
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, to whom Beijing is already hostile as she
refuses to accept its view that Taiwan is a part of China.news.yahoo.com/china-vows-forceful-response-over-035750831.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Wall Street Journal (2023-8-12)
China's
leaders have more to think about as they weigh a response.While it serves Beijing's
interests to have better relations with Washington at this moment,” that
doesn't mean the Chinese leadership would shy
from taking strong action on Taiwan, if they deem it necessarymsn.com/en-us/news/world/us-visit-by-taiwan-vice-president-puts-china-in-a-bind/ar-AA1fbCxI
Chun Han Wong, Joyu Wang, Charles Hutzler
VOA (2023-8-11)
experts think Beijing will launch
a military response to Lai’s stopovers in the U.S., but the scale will
depend on how "official-looking" his trip is. "This includes who he
meets with, what he says, and how public those meetings are"
... any reaction deemed too provocative could help increase Lai's
chance of winning the election. However, she added that Beijing also
worries about sending the wrong signal if its responses are deemed too
weak.voanews.com/a/analysts-us-taipei-aim-to-keep-taiwan-vp-transit-stops-low-key-/7220905.html
◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8: the
P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages
conventional and nuclear missiles)
being central to future conflicts — is under a shadow. This unexplained shake-up
suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct◆ JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations
task force report about
"U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era"
warns that "deterrence is steadily
eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing,
increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression." ◆
New York Times, 2023-8-4:
TSMC's chairman
rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan
because of semiconductors. China will notnot invade
Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and
China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"◆
The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: Taiwan's
leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the
island into its political system will be attempted through
economic coercion rather than military action.
A report by
the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not
spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated
systems”.◆
Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes
donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war
across the Taiwan Strait.The military move may instead provoke a new crisis.◆Wall
Street Journal, 2023-7-28:
Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message -
War could happen. ◆ Kyodo News
(Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is
"rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap
appears to be growing year by year.", Japan' said in its 2023 white paper ☉full text
◆ Fox News,
2023-7-28 The coming China war over Taiwan
- The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place
♦
a critical question – is Taiwan
committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is
no.
♦ perhaps most alarmingly,
some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die
for their country.Research
in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the
military and averse to service."
♦
Biden must show leadership now,
before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate
much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late
Rebekah Koffler
comparisons
Chinese
military
Taiwan's military
♦The Guardian, 2023-8-7:
the more dramatic parts ofChina's documentary on
Taiwan invasionare pledges by PLA soldiers from various divisions to give up their
lives in a potential attack on Taiwan.──
“If the conditions were too
difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we
would use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our
[landing] forces,” said a frogman;
“fighter jet would be the last missile rushing towards the enemy"
said a pilot. .theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/chinese-soldiers-pledge-to-sacrifice-their-lives-in-documentary-on-taiwan-invasion
Associated Press
♦Wall
Street Journal, 2023-7-5:
The professionalism and motivation of
Taiwan's military are a particular concern, ...
“A lot of young people who signed up for
the four-year volunteer force decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early
because they say they had come for the money—not to fight and not to die".
wsj.com/articles/taiwan-china-ukraine-russia-hong-kong-military-war-517b87d?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahooYaroslav
TrofimovJoyu
Wang
#MeToo in Taiwan
★New York Times, 2023-7-27
our society remains patriarchal and
hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their
brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield
to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be...
In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and
preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority
nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html
Vickie Wang
★
Reuters, 2023-7-28
Despite Taiwan's
reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first
place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to
confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence.
Victims of abuse often stay silent due to what
experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and
unequal power relationships.
reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/Sarah Wu
◆Financial
Times, 2023-7-24:
so-called
salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are
slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive
Taiwan of the ability to defend itself. Some defence
experts therefore believe that the US military's
strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is
focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these
pressure tactics.◆Lowy
Institute, 2023-7-17: the
RAND
assessed that just two US allies in
the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to
help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in
the realm of “limited support”...
similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on
Russia for its invasion of Ukraine◆
Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:
Simulations by
the CSISfound the U.S.
could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support
of allies such as Japan and Australia.
But Keio University prof.
said
he think 90% of Japanese people would
say 'no' at
this point to the question of
'whether you are willing to risk your
life to defend Taiwan'
◆
National Interest, 2023-7-15: With
the intensification of competition between China and the United
States and the gradual deterioration of China's
international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China
to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...
it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan...
◆
National Review, 2023-7-15: Obviously Xi is pushing for the US
to treat Taiwan as a local conflict between two fuedng Chinese
neighbors and stay out of the fight ◆Reuters, 2023-7-14: US needs to speed up delivery
of weaponslike air defence systems
and those that could target ships from land to Taiwan in the coming years.
Milley said the United States was looking at whether it
needed to change where some U.S. forces were based within the
Asia Pacific. ◆CNN,
2023-7-14:
it may become too late for
Washington to come to Taipei's rescue
if large amounts of PLA planes and ships are already on station
around the island.The longer the
delay in reacting to PLA buildups, the less time available to
match or counter that buildup. The US margin of advantage is too
slim to achieve success if its forces move too late ◆
Bloomberg, 2023-7-13:
Taiwan #MeToo scandals
push Tsai
government to toughen
equality laws.
The scandals contrast with the island's
image as one of Asia's most
progressive societies: 1st to
legalize same-sex marriage, but“Speaking
up takes a lot of courage, because speaking up in this culture
may lead to victim shaming.”◆CNN,
2023-7-11: NATO Secretary General
summed up the US-led alliance's collective concerns
that what is happening in Ukraine today could occur in Asia tomorrow.◆ Sky News, 2023-7-12: A war over Taiwan – a conflict cause mass casualties and
destruction, international trade would plunge, supply shortages of essential
goods would pile up and inflation would surge
◆The Guardian, 2023-7-9:
while the war in Ukraine has
underlined the importance of civilians in helping to fend off a powerful
invader, only a fraction (annually, to 260,000)
of 2 millionreservists are thought to be
combat-ready... the drills lack urban warfare or
modern weaponry instruction.
National Interest, 2023-7-16 -
Willing to fight ?
China
Taiwan
a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu
and Xiaojun Li,55 percent of the
respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent
opposed it ... another online survey in
ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported
armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among
Chinese elites.
Instead
of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people
have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the
United States...
extension of the compulsory conscription
program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.
◆
Atlantic Council, 2023-7-7:
Taiwan, is one of the world's
most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for
about 97
percent of its energy.
Beijing appears increasingly capable of launching a quarantine,
blockade,... ◆
Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7:
U.S.
reliance on Taiwanese chips gives it a major stake in preserving peace in the
Taiwan Strait but does not make a war between China and Taiwan less likely.
While
Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon
shield".◆Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: Taiwan
is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say.
Taiwan's military budget
is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel.
The professionalism
and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern.
A lot of young people who signed up for the volunteer force
decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early because " they
had come for the money—not to fight and not to die" ◆
RAND,
Jun. 2023:
Taiwan is vulnerable to
defeat by China within 90 days — a posited
minimum amount of time required for the United States to marshal
sufficient forces to carry out a major combat intervention in
East Asia. A well-led and socially cohesive Taiwan might be able
to mount a determined resistance for a long time, but, without a
robust U.S. military intervention, China...
would allow it to eventually subjugate the island.◆
NPR,
2023-7-3: More
than 100 accusations of sexual harassment and assault have
rocked Taiwan... — showing the gap
between laws meant to protect victims and their implementation.
◆CBS
News, 2023-7-2:
if China invaded
Taiwan, it could very well kick off in outer space, with both
sides targeting the other's satellites that enable
precision-guided weaponry. Cyber attacks on American cities and
the sabotage of ports on the West Coast of the U.S. mainland
could follow ◆ Economist, 2023-6-29: if a war did
break out, even severe sanctions might do little. The conclusion
was that the best time to plan sanctions is before they are
needed.
◆ National
Interest, 2023-6-29: it
could require considerable time—potentially several months—for
the United States to mobilize sufficient U.S.-based combat power
to augment forward... the weaker
Taiwan's political leadership and its
military are, the earlier and more robust the U.S. intervention
must be to maximize the prospect that Taiwan will avoid defeat.◆
TIME, 2023-6-26:
Taiwan needs to overhaul its
reserves. Taiwan also needs to improve its resilience by
addressing shortfalls in energy, water, and food security. It
should also do more to incentivize companies to diversify their
operations away from China◆
FoxNews, 2023-6-26:
Chinese officials reportedly pressed Secretary of State Antony
Blinken on Washington's stance regarding the upcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan
during his trip to Beijing (induce Washington's
cooperation against Lai Ching-te) ◆
Atlantic Council, 2023-6-21: China has deep
global economic ties that make full-scale sanctions highly
costly for all parties.
G7
responses would likely seek to reduce the collateral damage of a
sanctions package by targeting Chinese industries and entities
that rely heavily and asymmetrically on G7 inputs, markets, or
technologies. Taiwanese officials might not support
economic countermeasures against China and opt for a
de-escalatory response. Given the depth of economic ties between
China and Taiwan, ... Public opinion
would likely be divided
◆
Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:
If China were to
annex Taiwan and base
military assets, such as underwater surveillance
devices, submarines, and air defense units on
the island, however, it would be able
to limit the U.S. military's operations in the
region and in turn its ability to defend its
Asian allies. ... it
is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access
and influence throughout the Western Pacific◆
FoxNews,
2023-6-19:
Blinken says US 'does not
support Taiwan independence' ◆ New York Post,
2023-6-19: Blinken ruffles feathers by stating US
"does not support Taiwan independence"
– as an inappropriate kowtow to America's
greatest adversary.◆Bloomberg, 2023-6-16
:
Henry Kissingerbelieves military conflict between China and Taiwan is likely if
tensions continue on their current course◆
The Diplomat,
2023-6-17:
Taiwan has abandoned asymmetric defense
reform in all but name, War on the Rocks:
Instead, Taiwan is now
planning to deter an invasion by threatening to retaliate with
missile strikes against the Chinese homeland and by pitting
Taiwanese units in direct combat against the vastly superior
People's Liberation Army◆Foreign
Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now
moving in an even more dangerous direction. For too long,
Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty
force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare
its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan
remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food
supplies, and medical equipment, ... ◆National
Interest, 2023-6-15:
If China launches an
invasion without first destroying America's
military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable
to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S.
forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience
the full wrath of a vengeful United States◆Washington Post,
2023-6-14:
Biden and Xi recognize that war between the two nations would
be suicidal for both. They understand that the most dangerous flash point is
Taiwan. While the nations’ differences over Taiwan are irreconcilable,
irreconcilable does not mean unmanageable◆
L.A.
Times,
2023-6-13: Taiwan's
relationship with China is one of the most contentious and
defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the
January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status
quo, politicians are
deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own
parties.full text
National Interest, 2023-6-20 nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
“How confident are you that the U.S. would defend
Taiwan if China were to start a war against Taiwan?”a
web survey (implemented by Macromill Embrain)
overall
DPP
KMT
TPP
not at all confident
26.61%
3.23%
55.63%
32.12%
not very confident
37.92
23.12
29.38
48.91
fairly
27.96
48.92
12.50
16.79
very confident
7.51
24.73
2.50
2.19
pic.:
No.1 "comment
Taiwan" on AOL,2023-7-4, 2023-6-28,
2023-6-16, 2023-5-31, 2023-5-1, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-2-28, 2023-2-6, 2023-1-21, 2023-1-14, No.1 or top "comment
Taiwan" on AOL,
2022-12-12, 2022-9-11,
2022-8-13, 2022-8-7, 2022-5-23, 2022-5-16,
2022-5-7,
2022-4-26,
2022-4-10,
2022-4-8, 2022-4-3, 2022-3-29,
2022-3-22, 2022-3-9,
2022-3-6,
2022-3-4,
2022-2-8,
2021-10-8,
2021-10-1,
2021-9-27,
2021-9-19, 2021-9-7,
2021-6-27,
2021-5-1,
3-8-2021, 2-20-2021,1-18-2020, 12-05-2019;
No.3 at 2022-7-19,
top 3 on US Yahoo, 2022-7-29, 2022-7-19
#MeToo in Taiwan
◆
New York Times, 2023-6-25:
A
torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions
about the state of women’s rights on an island democracy... entrenched sexism that leaves
women vulnerable at work, and a culture that is quick to blame
victims and cover up accusations against powerful mennytimes.com/2023/06/25/world/asia/taiwan-harassment-metoo.html
◆ CNN, 2023-6-10: The fallout from the #MeToo
revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential
race.Taiwan,priding
itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment.
Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let
it go"...
Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's
political reality, where the "big picture"
often comes above everything else. Only
when it happens across society – including in more conservative
circles, will it be the real #MeToo moment.edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html
◆The
Guardian, 2023-6-8: The belated #MeToo reckoning has
exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese
society.while
these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion,
in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo
AmyHawk ◆ABC
Australia, 2023-6-24:
Young
women, since they were children, they are already taught to protect
themselves, or try to tolerate this kind of inconvenience
(accept harassment). Sexual
harassment and sexual assault are prevalent in all kinds of
power relationships.The impact of the
Netflix show《
Wave Makers
(造浪者)》has
been huge, and it resonated with young Taiwanese women,
scriptwriter Chien says the show struck a chord because of the
prevalence of sexual harassment in Taiwanese society.
abc.net.au/news/2023-06-24/taiwan-metoo-movement-triggered-by-netflix-show-wave-makers/102505174
Joyce Cheng and Erin
Handley
◆ Washington
Post, 2023-6-7:
The #MeToo
accusations have caused the DPP's
favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a
tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the
nationalist Kuomintang. people
across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of
harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and
baseball umpires.
But the government has
until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual
harassment.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH
Vic
Chiang, Meaghan Tobin ◆Wall
Street Journal, 2023-6-7:
Sexual misconduct
allegations roil Taiwan's
U.S.-friendly ruling
party. wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894
Joyu Wang
Wenxin Fan
Women's rights
top 5 cities:
Vienna 98.4, Copenhagen, Melbourne, Sydney,
Vancouver ... No.10 Osaka, Aucland 96
Score out of 100*
five categories: stability, health care, culture and
environment, education and infrastructure.
news ◆
TIME,
2023-6-7:
in the event of a potential conflict between the U.S. and China
over Taiwan, most Europeans would prefer to stay out of it.… It's
only when such events happen when we would really be able to see
whether European perceptions and attitudes have changed or not◆
Economist, 2023-5-31:
Taiwan's
would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not
entirely within their power.
The next
president will take office with the island at the centre of a
bubbling superpower
showdown◆Washington
Post, 2023-5-31: Why are tensions
so high? China
increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,”
which has been the basis of relations since 1979. ◆ IG
Financial Times,
2023-5-31:
Fearing a potential conflict in Asia,
western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away
from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers◆New
York Times, 2023-5-30:
Taiwan ambassador
says Ukraine's
success against
Russia will deter any consideration or
miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished,
without costs, in a rapid way◆Washington Post, 2023-5-29:
Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly
misguided. Yes, China is a greater military threat than present-day
Russia.A turn toward Taiwan will most likely
cause us to fail in both places.◆
Reuters, 2023-5-27:
Failure to back Ukraine
would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says◆ Sky News (Australia), 2023-5-28:
nuclear umbrella push divides Taiwan;
Analysts warn the agreement could be globally catastrophic as it would mean the
US could use nuclear weapons if Taiwan was attacked.◆ Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in
Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said◆
The Guardian, 2023-5-22: over 90% of
the world's semiconductors are made in the place
many US officials think could be the site of the next global conflict: Taiwan.
US efforts to stifle China's
chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's
preparations for war; The strategy seems to be working.◆ Reuters, 2023-5-20: "war is not an
option", Taiwan president says ◆
Washington Examiner, 2023-5-19:
The top-line fact in the weapons to Ukraine or Taiwan debate
/
Taiwan's defense spending remains
absurdly inadequate. It's also feasible that Taiwan may elect a new
government in 2024 that lacks sufficient resolve to fight China. In contrast,
Ukraine has shown not just the resolve to fight against overwhelming odds, but
the spirit to win.◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 :
Truss:
only if more people visit Taiwan
and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party
realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so
they should not act rashly◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17 : faced with voters who have been alarmed by
Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its
hopes on a popular local leader (Hou Yu-ih)
with a blank
slate on the thorny question of China.◆
Washington
Post, 2023-5-18:it is now a very serious question whether the United States can
defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.To
avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine◆ The
Hill, 2023-5-17: Washington
must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic
ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.
◆ Washington Post,
2023-5-12: military
commitments are unlikely to endureunder pressure
unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests.
Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence
◆New York Times, 2023-5-11:
Taiwan's world-dominating microchip sector was built by
its strategic asset,
TSMC’s
skilled employees. But a demographic crisis, demanding work culture and flagging
interest threaten its lead◆
Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11: the
upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at
least to a certain extent.
— deciding
to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous.◆
DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11: Japan'spublic reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade,
but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of
Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that
the military is preparing itself in
helping fend off any Chinese attack◆Foreign Policy in Focus,
2023-5-10: Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's
economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism◆19FortyFive,
2023-5-10:
By stacking their heaviest
punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the
Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at
the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and
abandon Taiwan◆The
Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aislehave also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off
a military invasion or withstand a blockade◆
Taiwan News, 2023-5-9:
Defense minister says Taiwan will not let US 'blow up TSMC'
during Chinese attack , in response to a suggestion by
U.S. Congressman Seth Moulton that the U.S. should warn China
that it would "blow up" Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) if it attacked Taiwan.◆Air and Space Forces,
2023-5-1: There's
little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction,
and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said◆le
Monde, 2023-4-30:
China's
military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's
status quo is
◆
The Nation, 2023-4-26: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan,
however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea
battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any
such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the
nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it.
◆
AP, 2023-4-22:
Lawmakers war-game
conflict with China, the toll
on all sides is staggering. Alarmed and
alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost
entirely alone in support of Taiwan.◆
CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at
high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the
lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military◆New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China
is pitting Taiwan's
people against
each other◆ Brookings,
2023-4-17: the
Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a
significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle◆
TIME, 2023-4-12:
Xi understands that the
risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a
time when China is emerging from the world's
most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in
decades
◆
New York Post, 2023-4-8:
House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should
China invade the self-governed island.
★
Reuters Report (reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/digital-news-report/2023/taiwan)
Trust in Taiwan's news overall: 28%; Trust in news I
use: 35%; Trust score in 2017/2018: 31%, score in 2022/2023: 28%.
Due to the intense competition in the media market and the
interventions of owners, trust in news (28%) remains among the lowest in our
survey. In the polarised media landscape, many brands with political colours are
less trusted, whereas business publications tend to have higher levels of trust.
PTS (55%) remains one of the most trusted brands this year, after internal
improvements.
★
RSF, <Reporters
Sans Frontieres>,
France,
2023:
Taiwan's World Press Freedom Index - score 75.54, rank 35.
Elbridge Colby,
a leading voice for a new “pivot
to Asia.”
John Walters,
Hudson Institute CEO
He wants to see the U.S. concentrate
efforts on deterring war in the Pacific, even if that means
abandoning European interests.。
the U.S. simply does not have the capability for building the
alliance system Walters envisions or supplying it with the
requisite arms and ammunition to fight wars with two great
powers at once; It will take well into the
2030s before we're in much better
shape;before Chinese leader
Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan, the U.S.
should put in place immediate measures to attack the key segments of that CCP
economic and military power。
“Ukraine
Is No Distraction From Asia.”;
the US can fend
off Russian and Chinese revanchism simultaneously;
aggression must be met by strong American alliances with key
countries, including both Taiwan and Ukraine;
the kinds of weapons needed in
Ukraine and Taiwan are different enough that supplying one will
not substantially affect the other; most Republicans on Capitol
Hill remain strong supporters of Ukraine.
Ukraine will help generate (US) domestic resolve to fight for Taiwan.
Taipei
Times, 2023-6-12:
Taiwanese government actively courts Chinese tourists by the hundred
thousand, immigration authorities hand out insult after insult to people whose
skins are a bit too brown... the reality of its suicidally discriminatory
immigration policies is painful for those of us who live and work here.Besides,
over 1,000 nurses, have come from Hong Kong and are
unable to obtain residency to work
.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2023/06/12/2003801383
Associated Press, 2023-5-2:
Unclear who would help Taiwan in a war:
Taiwan foreign minister
Japan
S. Korea
Asahi News,
2023-5-1: Asahi poll:
80% of voters said they are worried
that Japan would be caught up in the armed conflict if the
United States and China clashed over Taiwan, 56% want only SDF rear support to U.S. in event of Taiwan
crisis.Which approaches to
prioritize for its national security? 70% selected “deepening the relationship with China,” far
more than the 26 % who chose “strengthening defense capabilities.”
Responsible Statecraft, 2023-5-2:
It is naïve, however, to expect Japan to automatically fight China if the United
States intervened militarily. If
Japan were to assume a neutral stance, China might be encouraged
to use military force to realize its aim to bring Taiwan under
its control. Recent war games conducted by the CSIS suggests
that the United States would lose a conflict over Taiwan if it
were unable to access bases in Japan.
The
Diplomat, 2023-3-21: South Korea Will Stay Out of a Taiwan Strait War，Seoul’s
desire to limit the damage in its relations with Beijing is
strong enough that strikes on South Korean territory that killed
only Americans would not necessarily bring South Korea into the
war as a combatant against China.。 South Korea would limit its
support to actions near the low end of the spectrum – strong
diplomatic statements, symbolic economic sanctions, and behind-the-lines
re-supply of U.S. forces
returning from battle.
Axios, 2023-5-2: South Korea would be
unlikely to consider sending troops into the Taiwan Strait. But
the U.S. could pull some of its own 30,000-strong contingent out of
Korea, and would likely expect Seoul
to play a key support role.That
could leave Seoul exposed to retaliation from China, and more
vulnerable to North Korea
asahi.com/ajw/articles/14898395responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/05/02/should-japan-defend-taiwan/
k. sugawa
thediplomat.com/2023/03/south-korea-will-stay-out-of-a-taiwan-strait-war/
axios.com/2023/05/02/taiwan-war-us-philippines-japan-korea-australia d.
lawler, b. a. ebrahimian
Taiwan's
President is expected to meet Speaker McCarthy,Beijing will decide how strongly it
wants to respond
New York
Times, 2023-4-6
Despite the combative words, any retaliation by
Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's
leader, including over
Taiwan's coming presidential race
- could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which
favors stronger ties with China
nytimes.com/2023/04/06/world/asia/taiwan-mccarthy-china.htmlChris
Buckley and Amy
Chang Chien
New York
Times, 2023-4-5
Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's
president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States,
has edged
closer to America while trying not to anger Chinanytimes.com/2023/04/05/us/politics/mccarthy-tsai-taiwan-china.html
New York Times, 2023-3-29
President Tsai Ing-wen
risks a show of force from Beijing。Beijing
just lured Honduras to
abandon diplomatic ties with Taipei in what many saw as pre-emptive
punishment for her trip.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/world/asia/taiwan-president-us-china.html
Bloomberg, 2023-3-29
Tsai is unlikely to use this moment to “push
boundaries" , partly to avoid
"accusations of being provocative by Taiwanese
voters.". Any Tsai
meeting with McCarthy "puts the ball in
Beijing's court"news.yahoo.com/china-warns-taiwan-leader-mccarthy-031352507.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
CNN, 2023-3-30
Beijing warns of ‘severe impact’ on US-China
relations as Taiwan’s leader lands in New York
CNBC, 2023-3-30
Taiwan leader's meeting
with McCarthy could provoke a ‘big’ reaction from China, says analyst
Washington Post, 2023-3-29
When Honduras switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last week, it
put the diplomatic future of Taiwan in a more precarious positionwashingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/29/honduras-taiwan-china-allies-relations/
Newsweek, 2023-3-31
"Tsai's visit to the U.S. can be seen as a face-saving way for the U.S. to avoid
another Pelosi-like fiasco from which it is still paying a price in global
standing,""At the same time, Ma's visit to China
shows there is strong desire on both sides of the Taiwan Straits for a peaceful
solution." msn.com/en-us/news/world/what-two-taiwan-trips-mean-for-fate-of-most-dangerous-us-china-issue/ar-AA19komh
Tom O'Connor
Bloomberg, 2023-3-31
The expected California meeting with McCarthy was considered a concession: At
the request of the Taiwanese government, McCarthy decided to put off a potential
trip to Taiwan until after presidential elections next year and instead host
Taiwan’s leader on US soil. msn.com/en-us/news/world/white-house-tries-to-keep-china-calm-while-taiwans-tsai-visits-the-us/ar-AA19il7y
Jenny Leonard and Cindy Wang
The
Guardian, 2023-3-28
(ex president) Ma Ying-jeou's
"we are all Chinese" message is starkly at
odds with vision of Tsai Ing-wen, who seeks support from Washington. Taiwan caught between superpowers as
rival leaders visit China and US
theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/taiwan-leaders-visit-china-us-ma-ying-jeou-tsai-ing-wenTaipei
AP, Washington Post,
The Hill, 2023-3-15
thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/
...
a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly
tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan.
Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also
exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on”
Latin America
L.A.
Times, 2023-3-15
The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as
China spends billions to win recognition
of its “one China” policy.msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15
Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile
on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader
recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h
Pew Research
org., 2023-3-2
US respondents' views about a hypothetical conflict
between China, Taiwan differ by question wording
a conflict between China and Taiwan
China invade Taiwan
Taiwan declared Independence, China
invaded
support China
8%
7
10
support Taiwan
45%
49
40
remain neutral
47%
44
50
when the scenario involves Taiwan declaring
independence. Under this hypothetical, 46% of Democratic respondents say
the U.S. should support Taiwan, compared with 28% of Republicans.
pewresearch.org/decoded/2023/03/02/testing-survey-questions-about-a-hypothetical-military-conflict-between-china-and-taiwan/
General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025?
The Hill, 2023-2-2, USA Today, 2023-2-3, FoxNews, 2023-2-3
US
generals, officials, experts, law-makers
China invade Taiwan by ?
CIA Director William Burns
Xi has ordered military to be ready for Taiwan invasion by 2027
Philip Davidson, the former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific
Command
(Jan. 2023)
China may attack Taiwan — even just its small, outer islands
— by 2027
Adm.
Charles Richard, commander of U.S. Strategic Command
predicted war by 2027
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday
(Oct., 2022)
Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024...or
a potentially a 2023 window
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
(Oct., 2022)
on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific
Security Affairs Ely Ratner
(July, 2022)
“only a matter of time”
Minihan,
the leader of Air Mobility Command
2025
Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow focused on U.S.-China
relations at the Center for a New American Security,
before 2027, a crisis or incident that could spiral
out of control
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul
agreeing with the assessment on “Fox News Sunday.”
Sen. Todd Young (Ind.)
2025
House Armed Services Committee ranking member Adam Smith
(D-Wash.)
the
2025 timeline for such an event was “not only not
inevitable” but “highly unlikely,”
Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey
2025
, a“bad judgment”
Gen. Mark
Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
(Nov. 2022)
it
will be “some time” before the Chinese have the military capability
to invade Taiwan.
The Guardian, 2023-1-1: Ukraine
is in the headlines now. But a whole new world of conflict is about
to erupt，Taiwan,
North Korea, Iran and Palestine
are all potential flashpoints
NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China
WSJ, 2022-12-27
a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in
the face of growing
concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between
Washington and Beijing.
wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS,
AP,
2022-12-27
The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it
underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong
the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however, only 35.6
percent said they would support an extension
pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN,
2022-12-27
Chinese
soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of
the air and the sea...before
they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need
people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters
edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27
It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with
Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi
Japan,
2022-12-28
The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27
"a
deplorable decision" made under US
pressure
/
the DPP authorities might
incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in
collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the
mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real
battlefield.
...expecting
that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense
budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military
is in line with US strategy.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml
12-27
News
◆Bloomberg,
2023-3-31:
Washington's planned subsidies
to “hollowing out” its world-beating chip industry, or
that US defense strategists hope to provoke a war over Taiwan to
... cripple the People's
Liberation Army — have gained noticeable traction
◆Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters'
choice as one between “peace or war” ...The
DPP has
criticised KMT's "embracing appeasement”,but it, too,
worries about conflict◆Taiwan is losing its friends. Economist
(2023-3-28) :With China's wallet growing ever
larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties
help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic
partners◆ AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing
and Taipei since they separated in 1949, after the Chinese civil war....the
decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington◆Foreign
Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss:
Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become
a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. ◆
Economist,
2023-3-9:
War is no longer a
remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed.Taiwan
could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any
conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation.◆
USNI, 2023-3-21:
U.S. Needs Air
Superiority, Ship-Killing Weapons to Defend Taiwan, Pacific Air
Forces Commander Says...
he doesn’t think
China wants to engage in this fight.◆
Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9:
Taiwan's
"porcupine strategy"
calls for Taiwan to arm itself with thousands of mobile
anti-ship and anti-air weapons, sea mines, drone strike systems,
and other smaller, mobile systems. While
it still struggles with two challenges: a continued
preference for big-ticket defense systems, and US delays in
delivering weapons◆
Economist,
2023-3-6:Taiwan's
fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its
people◆Reuters,
2023-3-5:
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan...Taiwan
holds presidential and parliamentary elections in early 2024 and
tensions with China are likely to dominate campaigning◆
USNI, 2023-3-2:
Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl
testified before the House Armed Services Committee that he does not
think China will attempt to invade Taiwan before 2027.◆ Reuters,
2023-2-28:
The threat of China invading Taiwanhas moved
to the centre of global money managers' risk radars and is
factoring in their investment decisions,"China wouldn't have to
invade Taiwan or actually get hot to just cause a stir in that
part of the market" ◆Washington
Post, ABC news, 2023-2-27:
CIA chief: Xi Jinping
has instructed his country's military to “be ready by 2027” to invade Taiwan;
China has some doubt on ability to invade Taiwan◆New
York Times, 2023-2-27:
the Chinese are prepared to wage a much
broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society.The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese
resources and manufactured goods◆
EurAsian Times, 2023-2-26: "No Boots On Ground':
Majority
Of US Voters' Chicken Out’ From
Sending Soldiers To Taiwan To Battle China◆ New York Times, 2023-2-22:
TSMC might have been forced to set up a factory in the United
States because of political considerations, but so far, the Phoenix
project has yielded very little benefit for TSMC or Taiwan.
◆ Bloomberg, 2023-2-22:
Holding off the PLA for two weeks is a key goal of Taiwan's
military because it would allow time for the US and other allies to come to its aid.◆
Economist, 2023-2-18:
China still relies on
Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the
friendship central to any plans China might have to invade
Taiwan (CBS
2023-2-19: China
considering providing "lethal support" to aid Russian invasion
of Ukraine, Blinken says) ◆Washington
Post, 2023-2-20:
growing concern — conviction even — that war between the United
States and China could be coming.
The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan.
◆NY Times,
2023-2-15: An active
denial strategy that focuses on supplying defensive weapons to
U.S. allies and a lower-profile, more agile deployment of U.S.
forces in the region would raise the costs of Chinese military
action without exacerbating China's
own sense of insecurity◆
Bloomberg, 2023-2-5:
the US position
on the island remains equivocal. The intention is to avoid
provoking Beijing, yet the consequence is to weaken deterrence.◆
Washington
Post, 2023-2-3: (China's)
state-run People's
Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with
containing China.◆
Washington Post, 2023-2-2:
Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely,
Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese
assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign
territory.◆New York
Times,
2023-2-1:
The United States is
increasing its military presence in the Philippines, the Philippines is among the most geographically close
to Taiwan...is crucial to countering
China in the event it attacks Taiwan◆The Hill,
2023-1-23: the U.S. defense industrial base
is not currently equipped to support a protracted conventional war...How
do you effectively deter if you don’t have sufficient stockpiles of the
kinds of munitions you’re going to need for a China-Taiwan Strait kind
of scenario?◆
Modern War Institute at West
point, 2022-12-19:
Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to
shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been
slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style
resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an
occupation.◆Wall
Street Journal, 2023-1-26:
Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan?Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's
policies are hampering deterrence◆
Bloomberg, 2023-1-21:
A more
effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface
ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This
is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"
◆
New York Times, 2023-1-21:
Glaserwarns that
symbolic victories may
not be worth the cost of provoking China
... "But
the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism"
said Dan Blumenthal
◆
War On The Rocks, 2023-1-20:
Training, Not Arms Sales, Should Be the New Priority◆
USA Today, 2023-1-20:
Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island
has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against
an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society
fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia
◆
AFP, 2023-1-21: Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan◆ WSJ,
2023-1-19:
The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military
Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force.
Taiwan is
ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are
underwhelming.◆CNN, 2023-1-20: In
Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict◆ Economist,
2023-1-19: TSMC is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in
which its business interests come first
◆
France 24, 2022-12-26:
Seventy-one
warplanes deployed by China in war drills
-
the
largest reported incursion to date◆
full text
CNN, 2023-3-28: In 2023's “Asia's
50 Best Restaurants,
Taiwan ranks No. 9 among Asia's countries, Taipei ranks No. 17 among Asia's
cities, Taipei's Mume restaurant ranks No. 45 in top 50 restaurants, the number
of Taiwan's restaurants entering top 50 is the least in recent 10 years.
Taipei's Logy ranks No. 57, but its chef is a Japanese. Tapei's Adachi
Sushi ranks No. 87, Kaohsiung's Liberte ranks No. 96.
Asia’s 50 Best
Restaurants 2023
theworlds50best.com/asia/en/list/1-50
rank
countries with the most wins
number of
restaurants selected
rank
cities with the most wins
number of
restaurants selected
1
China
(Hong Kong 5,
Shanghai 2, ShenZhen 1, Macau 2, Beijing 1)
11
1
Bangkok (Thailand )
9
2
Japan
(Tokyo 7, Osaka 1,
Wakayama 1, Kyoto 1)
10
2
Singapore
9
3
Thailand
(Bangkok 9)
9
3
Tokyo (Japan)
7
4
Singapore
7
4
Hong Kong (China)
5
5
S. Korea
4
5
Seoul (S. Korea)
4
6
India
3
6
Shanghai (China)
2
7
Philippines
2
7
Macau (China)
2
8
Vietnam
1
8
Manila
(Philippines)
2
9
Taiwan
1
9
Osaka (Japan)
1
♣
No.1 Le Du (Thai.), No.2 Sezanne (Japan), No.3 Nusara
(Thai.), 4. Den (Japan), 5 Gaggan Anans (Thai.)...No. 45
Mume (Taiwan Taipei)
♣
Bangkok has long been considered a
world capital when it comes to street food. But these
days, its fine dining scene is proving to be just as
alluring.
Though most of the winners on the list are fine dining
restaurants, one street food eatery managed to break
through the pack – Bangkok’s Michelin-starred Raan Jay
Fai
10
Wakayama (Japan)
1
11
Mumbai (India)
1
12
New Delhi (India)
1
13
Chennai (India)
1
14
ShenZhen (China)
1
15
Kyoto (Japan)
1
16
Ho Chi Minh
(Vietnam)
1
17
Taipei (Taiwan)
1
18
Beijing (Chn)
1
Biden :
"U.S. forces, U.S. men and women
would defend Taiwan"
Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23
Biden pokes at China again over Taiwan. At
what cost to US national interests?if
China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's
unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do thatchicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html
CNN
(US), 2022-9-20
looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...
Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave
in a real crisis.
edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html
Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-20
wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously,
two
key concerns here.
(1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in
face of the existential threat it faces.
(2)
It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight
and die for your country. It's a different thing to take
painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard
truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those
steps
msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20
Cornell
prof. called Biden's
remarks “dangerous",
this
new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about
independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment,
U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check
japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20
“Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's
sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence”
Taiwan's
leaders could move closer to independence
msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
Politico,
2022-9-19
The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to
pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said.
politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658
Washington Post, 2022-9-19
Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so
much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors
with a stronger set of legislative instructions
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/
DW
(Germany), 2022-9-19
scholars: "it
can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the
capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is
becoming more strategic and less ambiguous."
dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19
Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le
dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave
violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance
de Taïwan .
lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
France
24 (France), 2022-9-19
most explicit statement so far on the issue,
something sure to anger Beijing.。Biden's
Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to
"strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant
downsides" to such an approach”msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily
Express (UK), 2022-9-19
Bonnie Glaser:
"
if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs
the "capability" to back them up,
If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should
make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so",
“"Rhetorical support
that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen
deterrence"
express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg
(US), 2022-9-19
Expert Bonnie Glaser:
“China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend
Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans”,Prof. Lev Nachman:
“The
worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment
rather than reduce it.。”
Bloomberg msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19
Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet / The
implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the
hypothetical, but it’s a majorly consequential hypothetical that now
includes a firm commitment — whether that firm commitment is technically
official policy or notwashingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19
his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe
suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic
ambiguity" policy ...not
only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and
various political forces on Capitol Hill. China clearly knows that
the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves
further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted
against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence
behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic
countermeasures for them, Xin said.
globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml
The Conversation
(Australia),
2022-9-20
so does this support mean economic
aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are
left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any
China-Taiwan conflict.
news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html
Can "silicon shield" protect
Taiwan?
New York Times,
2022-9-9
Taiwanis
protected by something far more subtle —The
"silicon shield"...If
it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from
Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times,
2022-8-29
Analysts debate how much
protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives
it. Some argue that calculations over
supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
National
Interest,
2022-5-15
Taiwan's
“silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's
defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is
an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan,
and fails to deter China
VOA News,
2021-5-10
Song Hong, assistant general director at the
Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences shrugged off the
geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China
views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from
its goals by U.S. action
Fox News,
2022-8-26
Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and
the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue
◆New
York Times, 2022-9-9:
Now,
Taiwanis protected by
the "silicon
shield"...“The most advanced category
of mass-produced semiconductors — is known as 5 nm. TaiwanTSMC makes about 90 percent of them. U.S. factories make
none.”If it is clear that China will be better off with a
steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail.nytimes.com/2022/09/09/business/silicon-markets-china-taiwan.html
Taiwan dominates
the global production of computer chips /
◆BBC, 2022-1-12,
source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021
◆ New
York Times, 2022-1-25:75
percent of production takes place in East Asia.Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in
Taiwan...China
could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to
seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden
promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the
United States.
nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
◆
CBS, 2022-7-8:
Taiwan accounts for 64% of the total
chip foundry market, according to data from TrendForce. Taiwan Semiconductor
Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, accounted for 53% of total foundry revenue in
2021, according to TrendForce.
cnbc.com/2022/07/08/why-tensions-between-china-and-taiwan-are-on-the-rise.html
World's Best Hospitals 2023
by Newsweek
comparison among Asia's selected 12 countries
newsweek.com/rankings/worlds-best-hospitals-2023
Asia's rank
country
total number of top 250
hospitals
1
Japan
18
2
S.
Korea
18
3
Australia
7
4
Singapore
5
5
Israel
3
6
India
3
7
Thailand
1
8
UAE
1
9
Taiwan
1
10
Saudi Arabia, Malaysia,
Indonesia
0
Taiwan's NTU Hospital ranks world No. 249
Asia's
China, etc are
not included in survey list - 28 countries
Opinion
- Why is
Taiwan behind ?
(1) Taiwan got highest
CovID death rate in Asia and entire world
again and again.
/
"Medicine
should be prescribed but not prescribed, medicine should be taken but not taken", bad record of
"failure to administer CovID remedy/medicine in
time".
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