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OPinion ♣Where
have the Chinese military planes gone?
♣ ♣
Chinese military jets near Taiwan ─ mysteriously stopped, and then mysteriously returned
♣
▲ CNN (2026-3-12):
the mystery remains unsolved.
▲ New York Times (2026-3-11):
an
unexpected puzzle: Where have the planes gone?
▲
Wall Street Journal (2026-3-12):
Mysterious lull in Chinese military flights leaves Taiwan guessing.
▲ Associated Press (2026-3-13):
"so many
theories and the lack of understanding of China's
intentions is what's disconcerting",
"uncertainty increases risk".
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China Mysteriously Cuts PLA Flights Into Sensitive Taiwan Areas |
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| ◆ United Press International, 2026-3-16 | Taiwan regards the incursions into its airspace and waters as routine harassment. Analysts have suggested that the decrease in incursions is timed to a meeting of the Chinese legislature, which has happened previously, or be part of a diplomatic or strategic play before Xi-Trump meeting in Beijing at the end of the month. |
| ◆ Politico, AP, 2026-3-15 | Analysts said the meeting could not be the sole reason behind the recent drop. Another potential factor could be a desire to calm the waters with Washington weeks before Xi-Trump meeting. Some observers also suggested the decline may be driven by a shift to a next phase in China's military training and modernization, with the army appearing to be exploring a new model for joint training between its forces. |
| ◆ Reuters, 2026-3-15 | Taiwan on Sunday reported the return of large-scale Chinese air force activities around the island after an unexplained absence of more than two weeks that prompted speculation in Taipei as to Beijing's motives. It last reported that many on February 25. Officials and experts in Taipei have said reasons for the disappearance could range from Beijing trying to recalibrate its pressure campaign ahead of Xi-Trump meeting to President Xi Jinping's ongoing purge of senior Chinese generals. |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2026-3-15 | analysts had pointed to the timing, with preparations accelerating for President Trump's high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. Others had suggested Beijing may have been conditioning Washington to perceive a reduced military threat and lower its guard. Still others had speculated that the pause reflected a revision of Chinese military training procedures. |
| ◆ Associated Press, 2026-3-13 | a sharp drop in the number of flights in the past two weeks has analysts scratching their heads about what China's military may be up to. (1) such flights have fallen in the past during major events and public holidays. But this year's fall was much greater than in the past. (2) China's desire to calm the waters with Washignton two weeks before a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump. (3) the decline in flights may be driven by a shift to a next phase in China's military training and modernization. |
| ◆ Reuters, 2026-3-13 | Beijing was seeking to delay U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and has been trying to create a better atmosphere ahead of the summit, including by toning down military pressure on the island. |
| ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2026-3-12 | “Everybody has a theory, but nobody has an answer”(1) Beijing might be trying to get Washington to see a reduced military threat, lower its guard, stop selling weapons to Taiwan (2)Xi's recent purges of senior Chinese military officials could also be influencing air force activity (3) could serve as an olive branch signaling a desire for stability ; Given reports that the U.S. has delayed a major arms package to Taiwan, " I think it is a realistic possibility that there is a quid pro quo regarding creating positive conditions for a productive dialogue" |
| ◆ CNN, 2026-3-12 | For nearly two weeks, Chinese fighter jets stopped buzzing Taiwan. No one seems to know why. For now, the mystery remains unsolved |
| ◆ New York Times, 2026-3-11 | China's Military Has Quietly Cut Flying Near Taiwan. A fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research said The Chinese armed forces have been shaken by widespread purges of generals and other top leaders; Another possible factor may simply be that the air force is intentionally altering its training routines. A Taiwanese expert said Given that Mr. Trump's administration is already engaged in war with Iran, “I think that Xi doesn't want Trump to think that Beijing is adding to the trouble”. |
| ◆ Bloomberg, 2026-3-10 | A Taiwanese official said the recent absence of China's military aircraft near the self-ruled democracy is possibly a move by Beijing to ease tensions ahead of Xi-Trump Summit. |
| ◆ Defense Post, 2026-3-9 | the recent sudden drop in PLA military flight activity — its longest recorded hiatus — may be linked to the upcoming Xi-Trump Summit; and China may also be using the lull to absorb lessons from its military drills. |
| ◆ The Strategist, Real Clear Defense, 2026-3-10 | During previous high-stakes U.S.–China summits, air sorties did not decrease. Neither does it fit with broader Chinese foreign policy, marked by a preference to negotiate from a position of strength. During the last year's "Two Sessions" meetings, activity was exceptionally higher than usual. China has oil stocks. More importantly, military aviation in other theatres does not seem to have been affected. |
| ◆ AFP, France24, RFI, 2026-3-9 | possibilities ranging from China's annual political gathering, known as the "two sessions", currently underway in Beijing, to its recent military purges. "PLA air incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ drop to/near zero around the time of the annual 'two sessions' every year" |
| ◆ Bloomberg, 2026-3-6 | The absence of PLA aircraft around Taiwan aligns with a longer-term shift in training that began last year toward exploring new approaches to joint operations training, said a fellow at the Pacific Forum. “Because joint training involves coordination across multiple services, it may also lead to a temporary reduction in the number of aircraft and naval vessels operating around Taiwan” |
| ◆ Reuters, 2026-3-5 | Chinese President Xi Jinping may be toning down visible pressure tactics to create a better atmosphere ahead of his anticipated meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the end of the month, two Taiwanese officials said. Facing Trump, "Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan" |
Reuters (2026-3-15): large-scale Chinese military flights return at Mar. 14~15 after unusual absence; Taiwan last reported that many on February 25, when it spotted lots of aircraft carrying out another "joint combat readiness patrol".
WHY? "25" and "15" ── these two magic numbers ?
The most likely explanation is what this website said on March 10th.
~ see 國務★評論
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"25" ── At Feb. 24, 2026, President Lai Ching-te called China 'mainland China' multiple times at a Lunar New Year event attended by China-based Taiwanese businesspeople. Referring to "China" as "Mainland China" implies both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China. Lai had rarely used the term “mainland China” since taking office.
China responded
that as long as
Taiwan
government agrees with the "92 Consensus" (one
China) and stops Taiwan independence
separatist activities, cross-strait relations can
develop peacefully.
(cna.com.tw/news/acn/202603040057.aspx)
By contrast,
at the New Year event in last year
(2025),
Lai
used the term 'China' multiple times and reiterated
the position that
Taiwan (The
Republic of China)
and China (PRC) are not subordinate to each other -- a
stance Beijing has repeatedly rejected. Even worse ── BBC
(2025-3-13): Lai called China "foreign hostile force".
Chinese flights activities decreased on Feb. 26, 2026, and suddenly stopped at Feb. 27.
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"15"
── why
Chinese military aircrafts
return around Mar. 15th ?
On Mar. 14th , Lai Ching-te at a forum (「台灣總統直選三十週年與民主韌性研討會」the 30th anniversary of the direct election of Taiwan's president) stated that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country. The Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (China) are not subordinate to each other, and Taiwan must strengthen its national defense capabilities, according to Yahoo Taiwan, 2026-3-14. (臺灣是一個主權獨立的國家，中華民國與中華人民共和國互不隸屬，臺灣必須強化國防力量)
Reuters (2026-3-15):
China lambasted Taiwan President Lai Ching-te for
his speech above.
China's XinHua, Global Times (2026-3-15): China
condemned Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te for making
secessionist remarks advocating "Taiwan independence" and challenging the
one-China principle.
As a result, a large number of Chinese military aircrafts resumed operations that evening.
The large-scale activity of PLA aircrafts was originally caused by "reunification" (one China) issue.
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Washington Post (7-22-2020) : In a major speech in January 2019, Xi (PRC president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.
Since then,
a large number of Chinese military
aircrafts crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. |
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South China Morning Post (2026-2-27): Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te's rare reference to “mainland China” signals caution ahead of a highly anticipated Xi-Trump summit, according to analysts. Lai used the term “mainland China” multiple times, contrasting with his frequent use of “China” in major speeches since his 2024 inauguration as Taiwan's leader.
Analysts said the shift in wording indicated Lai was seeking to ease cross-strait tensions under pressure from Washington before Xi-Trump summit from March 31 to April 2. " the US is restraining Taiwan” suggesting a reason for Lai's more cautious phrasing.
Correspondingly, China extended an olive branch ── Chinese military jets suddenly stopped.
This seems more
within-reason than international experts' analyses, such as
"coinciding
with the Iran war",
"military
purges",
"Two
Sessions", "energy
crisis", "China's
desire for stability",
"a
shift in China's military training",
"using the lull to absorb lessons
from its military drills"...
... Germany Table Briefings (2026-3-15) even mentioned it
could be arms deals
worth $9 billion
with the US that Taiwan's parliament
approved on Friday.
But it seems to be unlikely, because China's Global Times has not even
lambasted
it.
2026-3-10, updated 2026-3-16
|
At
Feb. 24,
2026, President
Lai Ching-te
rarely called China
'mainland
China'
multiple times
at
a Lunar New Year event attended by China-based Taiwanese businesspeople.
|
Chinese version
OPinion◊台灣上空
★
中国軍機神秘消失之謎
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Reuters (2026-3-5) : 中国空軍在台灣週邊的活動大幅減少。
Bloomberg (2026-3-6): 懸疑! 台灣敏感上空突然不見中国軍機 (China Mysteriously Cuts PLA Flights Into Sensitive Taiwan areas)
New York Times(2026-3-11):
分析家們百思不得其解。
CNN (2026-3-12):
謎團仍未解開。
Associated Press (2026-3-13):
各種猜測層出不窮
令人不安。
英國Reuters、 美國Bloomberg、 英國The Independent、 法國AFP、RFI 、澳洲The Strategist等報導了專家們的分析~
Reuters (2026-3-15): 台灣稱大規模中国軍機異常消失後， 14/15日又恢復了活動，這引發了台北方面對北京動機的猜測。中国通常每天都會派遣戰鬥機、無人機和其他軍用飛機在台灣週邊進行活動。
Reuters (路透社) 報導，台灣國防部周日(15日)上午通報表示，在過去24小時內，在台海附近發現了26架中国軍機。上一次報告如此多的飛機是在2月25日。
為什麼「 魔術數字」是25與15呢?
最大的可能就是本網於3月10日首先所述~ 國務★評論
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「25」 ── 2月24日 ，總統賴清德出席大陸台商活動時 ，多次以「中國大陸」稱呼對岸。這暗示接受了兩岸同屬一中。 隔日(26日)軍機減少 ，至27日 ， 台灣上空突然不見中国軍機。Reuters (2026-3-15): 長達兩週多， 大量的中国軍機不見了。大陸國台辦回應賴清德的言論表示，兩岸都是中國人，是一家人，只要認同「九二共識」，兩岸關係就能和平發展(Yahoo)。
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「15」 ── 3月14日 ， 賴清德出席「台灣總統直選三十週年與民主韌性研討會」，明述臺灣是一個主權獨立的國家，中華民國與中華人民共和國互不隸屬，臺灣必須強化國防力量 (tw.news.Yahoo, 2026-3-14)。 Reuters: 中国國務院台灣事務辦公室當晚間便猛烈抨擊賴清德當天的講話。 中国Xinhua(新華社), Global Times (2026-3-15)譴責賴清德的分裂言論 ── 扭曲台灣歷史與現實，製造虛假敘事，挑起海峽兩岸對抗，企圖誤導大眾(distorting Taiwan's history and reality, creating a false narrative and stirring confrontation across the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to mislead the public.)。大陸絕不允許以民主為幌子，追求「台獨」。
於是，當晚大批中国軍機恢復活動。
解放軍機的大量活動，原本就是因為「統一」 問題而起。
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美國Washington Post (7-22-2020) : In a major speech in January 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. 《華盛頓郵報》（2020年7月22日）：2019年1月，中國國家主席習近平在一次重要演說中向台灣發出最後通牒，要求台灣回到談判桌前進行統一談判。 之後，中共軍機頻繁越過台灣海峽中線，以宣示主權、使解放軍存在常態化，並遏制「台獨」勢力和外國勢力干涉。 |
這跟國際專家們研判的原因
──
「軍事清洗」、「兩會」、石油危機、更改作戰訓練方式、
伊朗戰爭、推遲軍售、利用此時機汲取軍演教訓等，似乎關聯不那麼大或直接。
德國柏林Table
Briefings
今日提及軍機再度激增可能與立法院批准90億美元的美國軍售相關?
也不像是!
中共Global Times甚至沒有大力抨擊之。
2026-3-15
★
