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News:
FoxNews 7-8-2020: The passage of a national security law on Hong Kong has put Taiwan on edge, with pro-democracy activists fearing that Beijing will soon have the self-ruled island in its crosshairs 北京將 鎖定狙捕台灣 Washington Post 7-7-2020: HK national security law could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan ... China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy  港國安法可作治台藍圖 並進一步備戰 ◆  CNBC 7-6-2020:  中美軍事演習 擦槍走火的可能性很小,但也不是零 National Interest 7-6-2020:   ... attempt great feats “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”  中國和台灣可能走向攤牌... 。    New York Times, 7-2-2020:  The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing. Yet the two sides are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise. 兩岸軍事衝突的可能仍然遙遠,因為戰爭代價不菲。然而,雙方漸行漸遠,都不願妥協。 New York Times, 6-26-2020:  When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...  American warships through the South China Sea and stepped up support for Taiwan and its military 當主權受到挑戰時中国會非常強硬回應... 美軍已加強了對台灣的支持 隨著美國總統大選的升溫,中美對抗的可能性將會增加。   Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning  在重大警告下  美國不會出兵拯救台灣  New York Times, 6-21-2020:  It’s a quite deliberate Chinese strategy to try to maximize what they perceive as being a moment of distraction and the reduced capability of the United States to pressure neighbors 中共的策略是充分運用並最大化美國分散注意力導致戰力下降的時刻 英國 Express 6-23-2020:  FEARS of a World War 3 have been ignited once again   第三次世界大戰的恐懼再次點燃 / 中共: 美國軍艦屢次侵入中国領土  並越過台灣海峽  ◆  英國 Express, 6-17-2020:  World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies 第三次世界大戰alert:随着台灣争端加劇,中国準備“軍事鬥争”  ◆  Express (UK), 6-12-2020: World War 3  alert /  a Chinese military plane crossed an unofficial airspace boundary in Taiwan Strait after a missile-intercept drill ... Taiwan sovereignty regarded by int'l community as a major potential flashpoint 台灣的主權爭議是戰爭引爆點之一  ◆  英國 Express 6-13-2020: China WW3 threat: Beijing military insider exposes how war could soon break out with US 第三次世界大戰威脅形成中美隨時可能爆發戰爭   澳洲 The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台灣當成挫敗北京的工具,會危害台灣的安全,  導致最後放棄台灣 英國 Express 6-16-2020 23:08 Tue US and China naval vessel nearly collide escalating ‘conflict risk in South China Sea’  中美軍艦險撞  “南海軍事衝突風險”升級  日本 Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-20-2020 : 隨著台灣加深與美國的關係,兩岸緊張局勢加劇,台 灣需提高警惕避免擦槍走火  ◆  英國 Express, 7-2-2020:  China’s grand expansion plan laid bare as Taiwan told: ‘You’re next!’   中國的大外擴計劃浮出水面:“台灣就是下一個!”
 
 台灣擔憂 中国武統嗎?

           蔡英文接受CNN 2-19-2020專訪時說到,台灣軍力與對岸相比, 只是弱勢 的"underdog" , 一旦開戰 , 台灣抵擋第一波攻擊後, 希望世界各國能挺身而出施壓 ... 在蔡英文就職前夕 , 英國Financial Times  5-19-2020報導 , 面對中共逐漸升高的軍事威脅, 台灣方面感到恐懼 英國 Express (UK), 6-10-2020: 南中国海危:台灣對共軍入侵的担,美向南中国海派出機與B-1B  英國太陽報 (The SUN) 5-25-2020報導 , 解放軍演習引起台灣害怕 ('has sparked fears in Taiwan') 英國Express 5-30-2020報導, 北京威脅侵台引起全面戰爭的恐懼 (Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring TaiwanExpress (UK), 6-3-2020: 北京拒台和平主張 不計一切的戰爭引爆恐懼 (South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan) 台灣壹電視 (Next TV news), 5-8-2020報導 ,  國安局長表示台灣將趨利避害不攪入 中美紛爭 ... 
          
 2019年11月中共官方對香港發出最嚴重的警告勿謂言之不預(有如最後通牒) , 兩會果然動手 , 2020年4月10日中共 鷹派官媒也叫囂勿謂言之不預近年台灣 政府一直請纓或銜命打第一線、 空槍下戰場、"poking the bear" (VOA 5-30-2020, Harvard prof.: Taiwan's push for independence may trigger Chinese military retaliation; 澳洲The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台湾當成挫败北京的工具,會危害台灣的安全。 ) , 且台灣人民在抗疫期未對大陸人民表現同情(Reuters (路透社) 2-26-2020 )解放軍2020年攻台, 勝算已倒向對方(RAND報告、美國政府出資的 Voice of America )、北京視抗疫期間為千載難逢的武統機會  (New York Times, 6-21-2020, Foreign Policy 5-15-2020對外戰爭可轉移內部壓力  ( WashingtonMonthly, 3-11-2020, Economist, 2020 ) ......等等國際資訊研判, 台灣方面感到緊張因此 在美國Fox News 抱佛腳祈求國際支援; 灣 英文報 Taiwan News 也在6-1-2020刊登"台灣陷入解放軍侵台 的即刻危之中(Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion)"的聳動大標題以及 B-1B轟炸機飛近台灣的地圖 

     

SOS  from Taiwan !

中共攻台, 中國武統

 

  解放軍對台動武

 

       Fox News, 5-27-2020: Taiwan Foreign minister warns Taiwan is next on Chinese agenda ( military actions ) and asks for international support.  (headline of Taiwan News)
    
        美國福斯新聞  5-27-2020: 台灣外交部長認為北京下一步可能對台動武 祈求國際支援。
            TTV etc, 5-27-2020:  蔡英文強調,現在情勢對台灣來講,是要高度注意的情況。
   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcHp-1j6Lg

 

       Fox News,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?  福斯新聞 問美國務卿:  若中国進軍台灣,   美國會支援台灣嗎?
 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.  美國務卿: 每次我與中國相關官員相談, 都會澄清將恪守雷根政府以來的承諾,   好消息是中国共黨也直接說會恪守承諾,  我們希望他們會...


 

         

國Express, 6-12-2020: World War 3  alert (第三次世界大戰拉警報) / 中共軍機在台灣試射攔截飛彈後飛越空界, 中共對美軍機飛越台灣反應憤怒, etc

 
 
  中国大陸當局6-11-'20抨擊美軍機飛越台灣事件違背「中美三公報」 (three joint communiqués between China and the US. )與一中原則、『嚴重軍事挑釁』、『非法』!

 

此為美國1979年自台撤軍後,軍機首次有計畫性、長時間、 挑釁性越台而過,從台灣頭飛到台灣尾,當然是故意擺明是要氣氣大陸。

 

美國 也 無疑在當前陸美複雜局勢下打軍事介入台灣牌對陸施壓,而台灣同意美機越台是挾美自重、以武拒統,美台合作製造台海緊張局勢,大陸必作出強力回應。(綜合報導)

 

 

PS: US News & World Report  6-15-2020: 美軍手段(provocative move )威慑中共 (deter China)或造成對立升級

 


中時 6-10-2020:  陸美在我領空角力   
 

6-9-2020 美國向台湾派遣一架海軍C-40運輸機(上圖紅線)自沖繩起飛,沿我西部陸地上空向南飛行, 掃過10縣市  然後飛往Dongsha; 稍後中共蘇愷30戰機多架次,短暫進入台灣西南空域,中国普遍認為此舉是對美國挑釁行動的反擊。

 

眾媒體報導航線係氣候或台灣東邊之演習而決定, 但:


紐西蘭 New Zealand Herald, 6-15-2020: the US Navy flight was an overt signal of support for Taiwan is likely, especially given China's recent major military exercises close to its borders.  這是美軍針對中共航母一直在台灣東南近處演練武力系統所發出的公開訊息
FocusTaiwan 6-9-2020 這是極少見飛航路線(" It's a rare flight course") 因为美軍通常只在台灣附近的國際水域或领空内行動
<The Drive> 6-9-2020 : 這種飛航路線"幾乎肯定會引起北京當局的谴责" ( "a flight that was almost sure to draw some form of rebuke from authorities in Beijing")

 日本 NHK , 6-12-2020: 分析此為川普陣營所為 " conducted the military flight to demonstrate its policy of working with Taiwan"
◆  中時 6-10-2020: 美國目的是測試北京的反應與大陸較勁;之前 解放軍機除例行演訓外,從未對美軍機單一行動任務作出針對回應,陸美在台海周邊公海較勁時互不影響的默契,9日正式被打破

  澳洲 News Australia 6-14-2020: “The US warplane’s rare flight over Taiwan showed the increasing collaboration between the US military and Taiwan secessionists, declared by Global Times 6-10-2020, "This can also be seen as a de facto joint military drill, indicating the US could lend Taiwan support in a war and give Taiwan secessionists courage to fight the mainland.” 中共:可視之為台美聯合軍事演習

 

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33964/taiwanese-fighters-drive-off-chinese-jets-after-navy-transport-plane-flies-over-the-island

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202006090013

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191355.shtml

https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4623423

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200612_01/
◆ 聯合報
https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4623423

◆ 中國時報 6-10-2020  https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200611003072-260417?chdtv

  https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20200610000460-260108?chdtv

chinatimes.com/newspapers/20200610000436-260108?chdtv

         

   

 

共機為甚麼一直飛到台灣空域?  Why does Beijing keep doing this?
 

  National Interest, 6-27-2020

搜集情報攔截美機等 Chinese military aircraft have again entered Taiwan’s air space in an overt attempt to gather intelligence, conduct reconnaissance missions, and intercept U.S planes in the region.

◆  Global Times,  6-28-2020

 

中國人民解放軍正在台灣東部西南部訓練,以抑制美軍和日軍從關島和琉球群島經過台灣東部宮古海峽來的潛在增援力量 通過台灣 西南的Bashi,Balintang和Babuyan通道。解放軍可以利用這些行動有效地使該地區不受外國部隊的束縛,同時確保台灣部隊無法逃脫 

the PLA operations from both the east and southwest of Taiwan indicate that the PLA is training to suppress the potential US and Japanese reinforcements coming from Guam and the Ryukyu Islands through the Miyako Strait east of Taiwan and through the Bashi, Balintang, and Babuyan channels southwest of Taiwan.  The PLA could use these operations to effectively lockdown the area from foreign forces while ensuring that Taiwan's forces cannot escape...


 

 New York Times, 6-26-2020

傳遞訊息給美國  China’s Military Provokes Its Neighbors, but the Message Is for the United States... When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...

 ◆  EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020

 

many missions speculatively aimed at intercepting US jets flying near the island.

 

◆  Express (UK),  6-30-2020

入侵既是慣例,也是警告美國不要協防台灣。  Observers claimed the intrusion was both for practice and to caution the US against defending Taiwan

 

  ◆  英國 Express, 6-17-2020: 9日起共軍機 4度入侵空域, 引起新的恐慌
  ◆  Global Times,  6-29-2020US military aircraft have showed up in the airspace surrounding Taiwan for nine consecutive days and the PLA Air Force also sent fighter jets and bombers conducting at least 11 patrol missions around the island in June
 

 

 

◆  pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 Bing第1, 7-2-2020, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-8-2020, 6-2-2020;

 

 

 

◆  pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 Yahoo第1&2, 7-2-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-3-2020

 

 

 

◆  pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 美國Bing第1&2, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-8-2020, 6-2-2020;

 

 

     ◆  pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 美國Yahoo search engine 第2, 7-2-2020, 6-27-2020

 

 

  

     ◆  pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 美國AOL 第2, 7-2-2020, 6-27-2020

 

 

 



pic.: Pompeo, Secretary of State 批評中共“Beijing’s opaque military buildup, reckless indifference to its internal obligations, and disinformation campaigns endanger us all,6-11-'20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Dj_DIJSFW4&list=PLNXJ_YC1PDA3kXSSliU5-R0FEqT-CkLmk&index=2 ( SETN, 6-18-2020 )
Congressman
Mike Gallagher (7-1-2020) introduced an identical version of the Taiwan Defense Act bill to the House to ensure the U.S. can meet its commitments to Taiwan amid CCP "aggressive military build-up"  在北京侵略性集結軍隊時, 防台法案送眾院, 尚未定案



 

SETN 6-18-2020: 鳳凰衛視播報 美國務卿與中方楊潔篪
 之夏威夷會談內容時,  台灣問題是排在首位

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Dj_DIJSFW4&list=PLNXJ_YC1PDA3kXSSliU5-R0FEqT-CkLmk&index=2

 

 

 

         

◆  pic. right: "台灣軍隊" 排名瑞士 SwissCows 第1, 6-19-2020;  ◆  pic. left: "評論 武統台灣" 排名 SwissCows 第1, 6-19-2020

 

 

      

  pic. right:  "台灣軍隊" 排名 Yippy (IBM) 第 2 , 7-2-2020, 6-27-2020

  pic. left:  "台灣軍隊" 排名 德國柏林 Ecosia 第 1 , 6-3-2020

 

 

 

 

 

  pic.:  No.1 "Taiwan military"("台灣軍隊") on US Bing, 5-30-2020

ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

 

 

   中共會攻台嗎?

 

 
foreign affairs, 6-18-2020:  A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ... 有效的威懾取決於中國 得相信 美國有能力以及有意願挫敗任何侵略; 今天,北京對這兩方面都存疑 美國得更 具創意思考,比方,若讓中国相信美國可在72小時內擊沈中國在南海的所有艦艇和商船,解放軍在封鎖或侵略台灣前很可能就會三思  ( ps: 華盛頓郵報,  1-5-2018: 美如派8艘潛艇可摧4成入侵之解放軍 )
 

 
John Bolton : 在庫德族之後,美國下一個放棄台灣? ... 那個位置可能是台灣的 Taiwan was right near the top of the list, and would probably stay there as long as Trump remained President, not a happy prospect...(Jun. 2020)...。   美國 Washington Post: 10-18-2019 " Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria Could Taiwan be the next  ": Could an unscripted phone call between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping greenlight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan Given Trump's impulsive nature, that chilling scenario — and its baleful ramifications — can't be ruled out  川普與習近平一通電話就可能大開綠燈讓中國入侵台灣? 考慮到Trump的衝動個性,這種冷酷殘酷的後果是不能排除的。
 

 
中國反分裂法:若和平統一的可能喪失,將採用其他手段解決 The Hill, 6-16-2020:  ASL提供解放軍攻台的法律基礎  ―  台湾宣布正式獨立、或拖延統一過久
習近平<2019年告台灣同胞書  40周年>,放寬動武(非和平手段)的條件至(1) 不承認九二共識(2)不反對台獨 (3)不支持一國兩制統一   的其中任何一項成立
◆◆◆

Reuters 5-22-2020 大陸兩會( the annual meeting of China’s parliament ) 開幕報告,  一反 約40年慣例, 不提"和平"只講統一, 兩岸關係螺旋下墜 台應警覺。(no mention of the word  "peaceful" in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades,  an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral.  )
◆◆◆ 中国 人民日報 People's Daily (China), 5-24-2020 :  Chinese PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.     (人民日報: 解放軍將採取一切意要必手段維護主權領土完整)
◆◆◆ 美國Washington Post 華盛頓郵報,  5-30-2020:  China vows to 'smash' any Taiwan independence move as Trump weighs sanctions.  中共誓言“粉碎”台獨
  美國 New York Times, 7-2-2020:  The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote
  美國 The bulwark 6-24-2020: 若美國承認台灣獨立,那麼中共幾乎可以肯定會將海軍艦艇駛進台灣海峽  the CCP would almost certainly issue military threats and send naval vessels into the strait
◆◆◆
英國 Economist 經濟學人, 5-29-2020: China has stepped up war games around Taiwan and its nationalists have been braying online for an invasion. 中共已經網路侵台;  德國 German Institute for Int'l and security affairs  2 -7-2020 台灣每月約有1500萬次遭到中共網絡攻擊
 
英國Financial Times, 6-3-2020:  if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force.   Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent.  很多人相信共軍犯台很可能快要發生
  台灣自由時報  6-29-2020 社論:  在政治人物的操弄下,(台海)危機正在擴大
  The Trumpet, 6-29-2020: In the months ahead, we should expect to see China continue using disruption, isolation and constraint in its Taiwan policy... today, with America weakening, and with China understanding that time is no longer on its side with Taiwan
 
EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020: the PLA troops have high war readiness in all fronts, but despite India-China border tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, the risk of a full-scale war remains very low thanks to the PLA’s strategic deterrence.
 

英國Express (uk), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan.  Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest )   英國前外相警告:  中共已放棄和平統一  可能將採取軍事行動
  澳洲智庫 The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 :  Beijing’s red line would be Taiwan declaring independence. 美國出售台湾武器,但不提供安全保證 ... 北京的紅線是台灣宣佈獨立 https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard
  美國 Washington Post 7-7-2020: 中國,有很多人猜測習近平想在明年七月的某個時候解決“台灣問題”,那時中國共產黨將慶祝成立一百週年。...李說:“大約在2021年左右,我們肯定要解放台灣。"
 
英國 周日衛報 Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020: 若美國被嚇倒、分心...,中國人民解放軍(PLA)今天可以成功入侵臺灣。數千艘大型河駁船和3000架西方製造的客機,可以帶來入侵部隊。征服後,臺灣將成為解放軍核潛艇、核導彈和全球力量投射部隊的主要基地。
  中國官方智庫「中國南海研究院」(China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies) 6-23-2020 發表《美國在亞太地區的軍力報告(2020)》: 美國正在亞太部署前所未見的軍力,升高了與解放軍爆發戰爭險  US security policy, military presence and deployment... a pending Cold War-esque conflict between China and the US.
◆◆◆ SETN: 台灣國安頭子於2020年3月底明白表示中共當時動武機率達6~7成...
  新加坡國立大學訪問學者、 美前國防部官員Drew Thompson: 「台海5年內必戰」「侵台時間大概在2024年」。/   《自由亞洲電台》, 三立SETN, 壹新聞, 6-4-2020
  The diplomat  6-3-2020: 台灣問題可能引爆中美"冷戰"變"熱戰"  (the-3-flashpoints-that-could-turn-a-us-china-cold-war-hot)
 
英國The Times, "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order ",  6-4-2020: 若遲早要發生軍事衝突,不如先下手為強。因為台灣在解放軍的飛彈射程內,且孤立主義的川普總統干預外國事務的可能性大減。/  英國前外相 Jeremy Hunt
  英國 Daily Express,  UK, 5-28-2020 :  "China warning: Beijing's coded 'we are ready for WAR' message amid Taiwan row exposed"
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英國衛報The Guardian UK, 5-20-2020: 當專家分析武力犯台不太可能時, 中國官媒在蔡英文就職演講後, 立即強調解放軍武力, 橫渡台灣海峽只是力量的考驗 ...  (While analysts believe an invasion is not likely, Chinese state media have been quick to point out China’s military might.  “What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength,” said an editorial from the state-run Global Times, published immediately after Tsai’s speech.)
◆◆◆ 新加坡 The Straits Times, 5-20-2020: 中國軍力足以擺平台灣 並阻絕美軍 (China now has the strength to "overwhelm the Taiwan military and deter the US military".  warned by Global Times.)
◆◆◆ 台灣自由時報  5-25-2020 社論:  中共對台,顯然有了新的策略,... 以強硬對抗為主軸...。中共的壓力只會更大,不會舒緩。
  ◆   Global Times, 6-30-2020: US using Taiwan as ‘last card’ may only speed up reunification...PLA aircraft could fly over island if US invites Taiwan military for exercise
  美國 NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
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Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: 儘管北京視新冠肺炎為武統的最佳機會, 但"目前"攻打台灣 , 不太可能 , 對台灣而言雖非 零風險,  尚屬低風險  ( Beijing were to interpret ...  coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ )
 
日本 Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-7-2020  : Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory.  中共短中期攻台機率relatively低  但要小心兩軍偶遇之擦槍走火或美國的軍事技術支援激怒中共
  ◆   Bloomberg, 6-24-2020:    Chinese Jets Buzzing Taiwan Show Long-Term Risk of War With U.S.   We may well see a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait before the decade's out.
◆◆◆ 美國 USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049. (習近平已發出信號將尋求2049年收回台灣)
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Freebeacon 5-17-2018 :   2020 — the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan ( 2020年 - 中國最高領導人習近平給予人民解放軍準備好入侵台灣的最後期限 )
◆◆◆ 中時社論 5-23-2020: 大陸對台動武 強行統一 還不至立即登場但擦槍走火可能日增◦    中時 5-24-2020 社論看法相似
 

英國路透社(Reuters) 2-26-2020: 因台灣人對中國大陸人民的新冠肺炎疫情未顯露同情, 台灣應趕快表現善意, 以避免中共為釋放內部壓力而攻擊台灣  (Taiwan should continue to show goodwill to China during coronavirus outbreak and not give Beijing an excuse to attack the island as a way of relieving “internal pressure” ... Chinese public opinion believes people in Taiwan lack sympathy about China’s virus outbreak... )
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Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior...  美國應傳遞堅定訊息以免對方錯誤解讀或判斷
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Economist 5-28-2020:  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly. 美國應明確指出,攻台將極其危險。(https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong
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美國 Voice of America (May 30, 2020), Taiwan News, Liberty Times (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned that the lack of international sanctions may lead Beijing into believing that it could overtake Hong Kong and Taiwan without consequences. 解放軍攻台唯一原因是不確定國際反應 如果國際對香港沒有制裁  對台就可能相似 犯台不會有多少後果  (  https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942917 )
  澳大利亞 News Australia  6-14-2020:    中國的軍事力量(主要是海軍)發展迅速,但至少還需十年才能與美國軍隊正面交鋒。
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美國 L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references ) :  Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island.   Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent. (許多中國的軍事現代化都是針對武統台灣而發展,   因為民進黨主張台灣的正式獨立,   這是北京要以武力防止的)

 
美國N.Y. Times 5-12-2020: The U.S.-based Pew Research Center found that 66% view themselves as Taiwanese 6成6受訪民眾自認是台灣人  VS.  鄧小平遺言: 非萬不得已不要打台灣,  因為中國人不打中國人
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綜合 自由時報The Liberty Times, 聯合報 United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020:   喬良 於 South China Morning Post, and Hong Kong media (紫荊雜誌 Bauhinia Magazine...) 表示「台灣問題」本質是「中美問題」,解決它必須等到中美掰手腕分出勝負之後; 並下出「文統無望、只能武統」結論,時候一到要「遇佛殺佛、見僧殺僧」。Bloomberg 6-24-2020: 喬良: 目前武統可能有災難性的後果:即使美國不參加戰爭 ... 中國官方以"六個任何"表示統一不打折 ...
◆◆◆ 台灣 蘋果日報 Apple Daily 8-18-2018, headlines - 中國隨時武統台灣. 美軍力報告示警
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Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)
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美國 Forbes, 6-3-2020:  中國軍費是台灣25 !  Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.  台灣聯合報 United Daily, 8-18-2018 :  陸仍準備武統  軍費是台灣15倍  (三立 SET inews 6-1-2020 10:43am: 中國軍費是台灣18倍;  L.A. Times, 6-9-2020: 美國是中共約4倍  )
  日本媒體<現代商業>日本同志社大學教授村上政俊 「習近平終於要『擊潰台灣』」習近平處理完香港的事務後,下一步將準備對台灣出手。/  自由時報  6-1-2020
 
美國洛杉磯時報 L.A. Times 6-9-2020:  港大研究: 在经济動盪之際,中国的民意似乎并不支持战争。社会福利和对教育的投资比军事支出更为重要  (Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty. )
 

 

 

 

Interpreter, 澳洲Lowy Institute 6-16-2020  :  treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security.  Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences. 風險是美國政策是要刺激惹怒中共做出過度反應,最後美國放棄台灣脫身 https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard
 
CATO institute, The American Conservative,  6-8-2020  : If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go.  如习近平想测台北和盛顿的决心 , 而不招致险,可攻金馬或外島
  英國The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020: ...  the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan  of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland. 台灣害怕解放軍攻 Pratas東沙島, 或佯攻之實則進攻本島 。
 
中時社論 6-19-2020:  和平仍是大陸統一政策前提,台海軍事衝突不是兩岸中國人所樂見,但在美國社會「厭中、防中、反中」氣氛下,加上川普選情不利因素,兩岸要格外小心,避免落入川普選戰造勢圈套,引發擦槍走火意外。對北京而言,當前是中國百年歷史機遇存續的關鍵時間點...
 
自由時報 7-3-2020: 台灣不能對自己的危機掉以輕心 ... 中国有可能犯下「偉大的錯誤」
  中時社論 7-6-2020:  只有台灣沒看到台海危機惡化
  如果有一天, 台灣的民主自由躍居世界典範 解放軍攻打台灣將倍感棘手
  今日新聞NOWnews, 5-28-2020: 李克強於兩會之記者會 : 促進祖國和平統一,我們願意盡最大誠意 ... CGTN 6-22-2020:  China's  the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: "We are willing to strive for peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and greatest efforts.", "Chinese don't fight Chinese".

       如何避免台海戰爭? 簡言之, 即美國中共要讓對方知道戰爭代價高後果重、 威懾目的的挑釁 須避免擦槍走火 。澳大利亞The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台灣當成挫败北京的工具,會危害台灣的安全。
   
    最近(Jun. '20)台灣新聞炒作共軍可能8月攻東沙及台灣派遣精銳陸戰隊99旅進駐東沙, 經查英國Express 6-23-2020報導 日本共同社  Japan’s Kyodo News 是說"It is believed the beach landing trainings are reportedly to simulate the takeover of the Pratas Islands."  是『模擬』、不是真攻,中視新聞 台灣新聞眼 6-27-2020 18:5pm: 師大政治教授也認為不是攻打東沙的時機, 雖然中共的海南島演習可以無預警的轉化為進攻東沙 , Global Times 暗示了這一行動,因為東沙對解放軍進入太平洋具有戰略重要性,而且台灣一直在考慮租賃美給美國,作為收集情報和反潛的基地,這對“解放軍來說是危險的” (ref to oilprice 7-6-2020)。   

只是,台灣媒體以「國軍最強盾」大肆宣揚目的為何?  易攻難守的東沙 可能無謂犧牲大批美好生命,兩岸互添血債、走上不歸路對台灣有甚麼好呢?  另分析指出解放軍若攻東沙、必攻本島 ,英國The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020認為若攻東沙 只是進攻本島的晃子既然東沙難守何不將東沙租賃美給美國,讓『國軍最強部隊』移守本島... ?   https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1300037/South-China-Sea-Taiwan-china-world-war-3-military-conflict; 大紀元 https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/20/5/12/n12102153.htm; 中評網 https://www.sohu.com/a/395544425_120135071

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    台灣軍力 能對抗解放軍嗎?

Taiwanese military     vs.     Chinese military

  台灣軍隊

軍力評估

 官兵   台灣軍方是顆"空 包彈";   美國國防部官員私下對台灣部隊和後備軍表達了悲觀的評估  Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell.  US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system.

 募兵制等因素使台灣裝甲兵,機械化步兵和 防砲部隊的人力總是極度短缺 armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers

  台灣很少有前線部隊 能補到80%的 兵員職缺 few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled    /  Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/
灣正規軍被砍半不到20萬 (the exact number is classified). 約二百萬後備軍人如同虛設 ... /  New York times,  5-18-2017
  The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.   /  Wikipedia, May 2020

◆  漢光演習變成了大秀場。乾脆將1年4次合併為1次,嚴重影響了訓練效果,有很高比例的軍官對作戰完全陌生  /   中時7-7-2020

戰略 ◆  應對中共的網絡戰, 認知洗腦戰, 超限戰,  台灣必須著重機動戰, 非對稱戰(非傳統武器)  反制解放軍 To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” /  Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020
◆  國軍近年標榜「發展不對稱戰力」,都是表面功夫。/ 聯合報社論/ 2020-06-06

火力

◆  Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan.   /  Forbes, 6-3-2020

◆  中共有原子彈核子彈氫彈, ... 及火箭軍 台灣的雲峰導彈測試完成, 須從2021年起量產約500枚才可戰略嚇阻 /  Next TV news, 5-8-2020
◆ 
Taiwanese military strength is ranked No. 26 ,  China's PLA No. 3  /  Global FirePower, 2020
◆   李登輝後期、陳水扁、蔡英文持續揮霍「沒有和平的和平紅利」, 造成當下台灣國防的最大難題 預算不足。 /   聯合報 社 論 6-6-2020
◆   強國不想得罪中國  因此軍售猶豫 A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... /  New York times,  11-4-2017

後勤

◆  國軍各項裝備的補充,數量、速度都不足。衍生各種流弊 /   United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020

 士氣

 台灣政府未正 視中国不斷增強的威脅, 且假設美國一定會出兵解救台湾,國民黨及民進黨的政策,皆導致 軍力不足  、且士氣低落。... (brief)  /  New York times,  5-18-2017
◆  監察院報告:「國人憂患意識低落,後備軍力堪憂」民視 8-3-2018

面對中共加劇的軍事恫嚇台灣感到恐 懼  Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... /  英國Financial Times  5-19-2020 

PS:  何以致之?  軍方無能 !  三軍統帥有責 !

 

★    Taiwan News 7-3-2020: Taiwan’s defense minister pledges combat preparedness 台灣承諾,軍方做好戰鬥準備
        但根
據英國衛報 Guardian 6-27-2020 報導,中共攻打台灣將出動約50%的解放軍總兵力, 據Global Times 6-8-2020 比較中印戰力: 中國適合服兵役人口達6.16億印度僅4.89億中國戰鬥機1271架攻擊機1385架運輸機782攻擊直昇機206架坦克6457裝甲車 4788 、艦艇714、潛艇 68...,據.storm.mg/article/1829691報導台灣後備軍人僅有31萬餘人曾被召訓監院調查,2015到2017年「因事出國」(逃兵)合計超過6萬1千人;  恐怕台灣距離承諾鬥準備完成還有遙遠的距離 至於美軍約一半總兵力部署亞太但根據NY Times, 7-2-2020 還是強調台灣自衛 ,沒有具體承諾出兵 ,大概只準備放暗箭協防吧  (台視2020報導早期教召受訓實況:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJnkU_GRClA )  。

 

    ●  英國 周日衛報 Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020: 如果中國征服臺灣,這將釋放大約50%的解放軍總兵力,可能部署到目前的西方戰區司令部,面對印度。"Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years":  by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.  https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started

    ●   美國洛杉磯時報 L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  兩岸戰争唯一可以確定的就是大量的傷亡,是一场災 難。(The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster. )   ◆  美國CNN 2-19-2020: president Tsai I. W.:  "Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" ...  "What we are expecting is, after withstanding the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" .... ◆  台灣聯合報 United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) 社論: 擔心台灣充當美國抗中急先鋒,是否終將成為戰場的棄子或砲灰
           

    ●   Reuters, 7-2-2020:    Taiwan practices 'enemy annihilation' after China steps up activity 
            
However Taiwan faces an increasingly formidable and far larger Chinese military, which has been undergoing its own modernisation programme, adding stealth fighters, aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles 但是,台灣面對越來越強大的中國軍隊,它正在進行自己的現代化計劃,增加了隱形戰鬥機,航空母艦和反衛星導彈

   ●   United Daily ( 聯合報 社評 ), opinion,   5- 7- 2020  "國軍「官不聊生」實況"      https://udn.com/news/story/11091/4547068?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2

           國軍各項裝備的補充,數量、速度都不足。衍生各種流弊:或者是官兵在外私購補充,或者是裝備放著不用怕損壞,或者是在裝備妥善狀況表上造假 ....... 國軍長年來對後勤資源的投注,距離理想狀況差太遠   蘋果日報社論  Apple Daily, editorial, 5-10-2020: 國軍後勤體制是燙手的痼疾 沒人要碰...

   ●   Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020 :  募兵制損及國軍,尤其是前線部隊的人力,因較低階的軍人可以要求轉調到通信等後方單位,他們幾乎總能設法辦到。這意味著萬一台海戰爭爆發,前線戰鬥部隊與單位就很缺人

   ●   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". 中国令人印象深刻的新型護衛艦力足以包灣,  軍難以超越登陸将是史上最困难的两之一... (brief)
 ●  放軍陸台灣戰 圖 :  https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/06/07/if-china-invades-taiwan-this-is-what-the-fleet-could-look-like/#4b24037ea7b0

  ●   蘋果日報 社論 7-6-2020 brief : 作戰的主力 海軍陸戰隊九九旅突擊艇在操演中翻覆(3士兵送醫2死) ,如果國軍精銳一再於操演 或是執行重要任務時發生事故,是否透露出國軍的訓練存在什麼問題?戰時還有多少戰力? (ps: 九九旅原本是要展現台灣軍力給美國看的樣本) 。  中時 opinion, 7-7-2020: 暴增的戰備壓力以及急就章的訓練任務,恐怕才是造成近年演訓傷亡事故頻傳的主因 。中時 7-7-2020: 2018年漢光34號演習,外界亦批評不符戰場現實。「我們也不想做」,「但是不能不做」,這是為了向國人展現國軍戰力。  因為總統要親校,所以漢光演習變成了大秀場。乾脆將1年4次合併為1次,這嚴重影響了訓練的效果,有很高比例的軍官對作戰完全陌生。這種作大秀的做法絕對值得檢討。

www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv 蘭寧利》; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv

     China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

                Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019  台彎 VS 大陸, 軍力對比

 

"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ...

aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019  that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan,

China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue.

 

 

usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.

 

 

ps: Apple daily, 11-28-2017: 中共前往first island chain包括陜西出發的H-6K (轟 6K), 不限於沿海第一戰線機場,  因此台灣解讀解放軍攻台兵力, 不可侷限於單一戰區以免誤判.  (brief - author 林穎佑 中正大學戰略國際事務研究所)

 

 

 pic. right: Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019  ;  The Liberty Times 建議不對稱作戰 "asymmetric warfare",  北京為武力促統可能飛彈攻台.  

◆  Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization  4-28-2020  https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2
      April 24, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress.

◆ 
Chinese aircraft-carrier,  6-22-2020,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme

 

      Core Chinese Military Capabilities: Today’s  PLA  is  still  far  from  being  able  to deploy large numbers of conventional forces globally, but China has developed nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities  that can reach potential adversaries across the globe.
 

 

 

       台灣網軍 Taiwan's internet army / cyber bullingVS.   China's internet army   (Apple Daily, 5-18-2020 headline news   https://tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200518/HL77HXSQJQU4HGPGWOO5DGL5OU/   中國多年前已建置規模龐大且專業正規網軍部隊,作戰能量遠超過台灣,更具直接殺傷力的精準「武器」,連美國都不敢低估。以中國長期對台的經營與滲透,可見其在網路戰必用力極深 ... brief
         

   ●  Foreign Policy 5-11-2020: 在過去的十年中,台灣一直在升級和改革國防,採取一種不對稱戰略,以對抗PLA的power projection 能力

  
  
  紐約時報 (New York times),  11-4-2017: 台灣防務體系的核心戰略 - 抵禦两週的中國軍事進攻,等待美國或國際社會的幫助... 五角大廈5月份的報告警告說,台灣可以遏制中國潛在襲擊的「許多歷史優勢」(地理環境,及美國的支持),已經被中國的軍事現代化「削弱或消除了」。美國海軍戰爭學院(Naval War College) Andrew S. Erickson說:「台灣需要認識到,它的防務最終還是要看自己。」; 川普政府批准對台最新軍售,數字較少,缺乏能給台灣帶來真正優勢的重要系統。中國去年的軍費預算是1440億美元,而台灣的預算只有100億美元。 (Singapore's The Straits Times :

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-once-mighty-military-now-overshadowed-by-chinas  Taiwan's once-mighty military now overshadowed by China's   11-6-2017;  http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/xi-tells-trump-that-taiwan-is-the-most-important-issue-in-sino-us-ties  Taiwan is the most important issue in Sino-US ties, Xi tells Trump  11-9-2017 )

    United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
          美國之音報導軍事專門機構RAND報告, 如解放軍2020年攻台, 勝算已倒向對方 Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.    China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

          According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

 

   ●    民視(FTV) 2-25-2019: 台北市長柯文哲稱美國告訴他台灣只能撐二天;  壹新聞  5-20-2020  9:10pm: "鑑船知識" :  24小時拿下台灣 ?
          Global Times 環球時報, Mar 2018:  解放軍前軍官估計100小時可擊敗台灣 ;
            中視 (CTV news), 12-18-2016: 台灣國防部長估算台灣可抵擋解放軍一周多;
           
台海一旦開戰,台灣軍隊能打嗎 願意上戰場的年輕人的比例%是多少,當告訴他們可能要犧牲生命後,比例是多少
           

      New York times,  5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China  (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

          台灣人似乎期待美國人的兒女犧牲他們生命來保衛台灣人的家園  We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.    台灣的國防政策是在政客與軍方(醜聞纏身)互不信任下所制定 Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

       Global FirePower, 2020 :  Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2.  Russia 3.  Chn 4.  India  5.  Japan  6.  S Korea  16.  Indonesia  17. Saudi Arabia  19.  Australia  22. Vietnam  23. Thai  25. N korea    26.  TW  35.  Myanmar  44. Malaysia  45. UAE  46.  Banladesh  48.  Philippines  51. Singapore ).  In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18.   However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan;  Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc. 
         台灣碰到軍力羸弱的菲律賓也軟趴趴示弱, 就不單純是兵力問題了

 

Next TV 5-29-2020
 


解放軍侵台戰略

   
  type English Chinese
1 cyber warfare  網路戰 PLA launchs cyber attacks, to penetrate CPU of Air Force Air Defense and Missile Command (Taipei), Republic of China Armed Forces Joint Operations Command Center (Taipei), etc. 網路攻擊, 入侵中央控制電腦, 劍指防空指揮系統 (臺北市), 三軍衡山所 (臺北市) 等
2 ‘unrestricted’ fire-power warfare
火力戰
PLA Rocket Forcetroops bombing like heavy rains the entire Taiwan 火箭軍彈雨轟台
3 marine war  海戰 PLA aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines attack Eastern Taiwan and paralyze 佳山基地 ( main air force base ) 航空母艦戰群, 核潛艇, 進攻台灣東部, 癱瘓佳山基地 (花蓮 台東)
4 economic warfare  經濟戰 Cutting off marine traffic to Southern China sea, etc 截斷海上交通線
5 invasion of remote islands 奪島 Invasion of Kinmen(金門),   Pratas,   Itu Aba Island / Taiping Island (太平島) 攻奪外島 (金門東沙太平島 )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIrQ2krhTE   Next TV, 5-26-2020

 

◆  英國太陽報 The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020 報導攻台戰略 (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11703654/china-deploys-aircraft-carriers-stoke-tensions-us-warning-new-cold-war/)
in the China's state-controlled Naval and Merchant Ships Magazine:
In around four minutes, Taiwan’s air power is badly damaged and those Taiwanese aircraft that have already taken off, will be shot down with S400 missiles.
"After nearly two hours … all anti-air defence bases are destroyed, and most of Taiwan’s warplanes are damaged. What’s awaiting them is the second round of attacks after dawn."
 

 

◆  2019年 資料:  CNN, "The Chinese Invasion Threat" book, Royal United Services Institute

https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/2831676
 

中國入侵台灣將會是陸海空聯合攻擊,首先是對台灣重要基礎設施例如港口和機場進行轟炸,以便削弱台灣地面防衛力量,
接著中共會派出戰機飛越台灣海峽取得空優,一旦解放軍認為台灣海空部隊遭到壓制,就會展開兩棲登陸

空中入侵是一種方法,但解放軍傘兵太少

除擁有港口與機場設施的台北外,解放軍只剩下14個可能的登陸海灘 若解放軍成功登陸並建立據點,
部隊仍須穿過台灣西部的沙灘與山區向台北挺進,期間將面臨到後勤補給路線狹窄的問題

 

 

 

      蘋果日報 5-1-2020: 密集的出事頻率絕非正常,但軍方能遮掩就遮掩   遮不住就神色凝重道歉,宣布成立調查小組,同樣的SOP下,悲劇一再發生。
           國軍改為募兵制後,一直無法招募足額兵源,軍事院校也早有報考者質與量都不符期待的狀況
...  ( ps: 不合理但常見的

  
    Apple Daily (蘋果日報  蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 :國軍改革 從誠實開始


  nuclear bomb核彈 neutron bomb中子彈 hydrogen bomb氫彈
countries US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Israel, India, N. Korea, UK, France US, Russia, China, India, France US, Russia, China,  France, UK, N. Korea

pic. left: At 5-7-2020, 台灣國安局長答詢立法委員 一旦中美在西太平洋發生衝突  台灣將趨利避害保持中立;
pic right:
  中美 均擁有 核彈 中子彈  氫彈     

( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI壹電視

  Washington Post,  5-21-'20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need to expand China's nuclear
and ballistic missile arsenal after the State Department published a paper arguing for the fitting of low-yield
nuclear warheads onto submarine-launched missiles.

 


 

 pic:  欲戰略嚇阻  台灣需500枚雲峰飛彈  (壹電視 5-13-2020: 已試射成功  可量產)

雲峰飛彈 - 维基百科,自由的百科全书

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI "年代向 錢看"Next TV news, 5-8-2020

 

●  Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons.

Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon. “The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that can survive an
initial Chinese attack and be resilient and lethal for weeks or months,” according to Scott Harold, an analyst at RAND, a California think tank.

 

● 壹電視 Next TV news, 5-27-2020: 雲峰飛彈射程約2000km, 包含北京南, 2021年可量產

●  Voice of America, 5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out already
with surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles and 66 aircraft in the past. 

 

South China Morning Post  (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric)
Taiwanese missiles are increasing in range and are capable of striking cities in inner China, including strategic targets

 

 

 

英國Financial Times  5-19-2020 : 台灣害怕中共升高的軍事威脅 近來解放軍已更加頻繁的踏入 兩岸傳統上的緩衝區,  中美爭端對立的升高也增加了台灣的危機感  ( Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone.   Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China. https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d   ) 

 

 

   美軍  VS   解放軍

   

●   New York Times, 6-26-2020:  中國的軍事力量仍然遠遠落後於美國,但某些方面已經趕上了,包括擴大其海軍力量以及部署反艦和防空導彈。中國現在“對美國海軍實現和維持戰時對西太平洋海域的控制構成了重大挑戰,這是自冷戰結束以來美國海軍面臨的第一個挑戰。...但中國軍隊實戰尚未經過考驗測試。

   

●   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies.  If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle.  American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers ( 如果美介入兩岸戰爭,很可能会打败解放軍  / brief )

●   L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  The country’s focus on communications warfare, autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles could thwart a lumbering giant like the U.S. Navy. ( 中国的通讯戰,自治系统和高超音速導弹可能會挫败像美國海軍這樣笨拙的巨人。)  War gamers at the Rand Corp. warned last year that the U.S. had “its ass handed to it” in battle simulations. ( Rand 公司去年的戰争模擬結果警告美國可能會被"逮住”。)  “The Chinese military has progressed very quickly —  and it might be a decade or two away, but it is certainly on the road to catching up with the U.S.” ( 共軍進步非常快,它正在趕上美国。) brief

●   National Interest, 6-27-2020: 美國在亞洲擁有60%的海軍艦隊、55%的陸軍和三分之二的海軍陸戰隊。報告指出:「美國軍方擁有85,000名部署士兵和大量高科技和新武器,多年來一直保持著在亞太地區的絕對優勢。https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-military-aircraft-have-again-entered-taiwan%E2%80%99s-air-space-again-163674

●  日本讀賣新聞 Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan.     Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).  

●   New York Times  5-24-2020:  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.   National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan...

●   美國之音 Voice of America, 6-4-2020:  Retired Admiral Sandy Winnefeld ( 5-28-2020 ): 尽管美中军力失衡还没有达到危险的程度,但这一趋势的发展轨迹对我们不利;  美国前海军部副次长克罗普西(Seth Cropsey): “美国继续是太平洋地区的主导力量,但这能持续多久呢?”美国国会研究处5月21日公布的最新版中国海军现代化报告得出的结论说,如果现在与美军全面开战,解放军会输

  ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

●   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020 Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure. (時間不再對中國有利)


● 
 澳洲 The Australian, 5-18-2020, 英國 The Times: In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon. (美國五角大廈模擬, '30 美軍阻止解放軍侵台, 將會陷入苦戰)

●   美國 CBS news 11-14-2018:  U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
          (美國若為台灣與解放軍作戰、很可能陷入苦戰  ―  險勝或遭擊敗)

          the National Defense Strategy Commission:  "It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat."   ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)

◆◆

 

  美軍或聯軍 會參戰嗎?

  FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?  問美國務卿:  若中国進軍台灣,   美國會支援台灣嗎?
 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.  美國務卿: 每次我與中相關官員相談, 都會澄清將恪守雷根政府以來的承諾,   好消息是中国共黨也直接說會恪守承諾,  我們希望他們會...

  Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: Bolton alleges Trump belittled US obligations to Taiwan 川普常輕視美國對台灣的承諾 
 

   美國 New York Times, 7-2-2020: 川普總統對台灣的個人承諾已引起懷疑,尤其是當他試圖與中國達成貿易協議時 ... “If Taiwan fights against the Chinese Communist Party, the United States won’t come to rescue us,” 國民黨立委抱怨台灣如果與中共作戰 ,美國不會來營救我們   As always, Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support. The United States is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself, 一如既往,台灣的國防又成了美國支不支持的問題。美國承諾會幫助台灣自衛。

●   Washington Post , 7-6-2020 : U.S. law requires that the U.S. government provide for Taiwan’s defense but stops short of requiring that American soldiers die for Taiwan. 美國法律要求美國政府為台灣提供防禦,但沒要美國士兵為台灣犧牲。

●   The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 :  美國出售台灣武器,但不提供安全保證 ... 《台灣關係法》,要求美國讓台灣保持自衛能力
●   美國 The Hill  ,  6-16-2020:  ASL (《反分裂国家法》) 是中国對美國TRA( 《台灣關係法》)的回應。至於 TDA  (《台灣防衛法》ps: 尚未通過) may be seen as adding little to the TRA’s call for contingency planning, it highlights the intimate and sometimes conflictual relationship between capabilities and intentions.   ( https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan )

  chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018 報導美國教授意見 ( Missouri State University  professor D. Hickey's comment ) :  美國並沒有鐵板釘釘的保證一定出兵保衛台灣 (the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan).  

●   澳洲智庫 The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台湾當成挫败北京的工具,會危害台灣的安全。中国已經有很多人懷疑,美國近年一逕鼓動台湾獨立,風险是,美國政策鼓勵中国做出過激反應破壞现状,最後的結果是美國放棄台湾  Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the United States intends to promote Taiwan independence, and this paranoia has only risen in recent years. The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.

●  英國 Economist 5-28-2020:  a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked.  美國法律暗示,如台灣遭到攻擊, 蠻可能向台灣提供幫助......  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly. 美國應明確指出,攻台將極其危險。https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify

●   美國 The bulwark 6-24-2020: 許多美國人想轉而承認台灣不構成美國的重要利益,越來越多的人希望將“一個中國”政策正式化。對美國安全的主要危險不在中國的野心,而在環太平洋美國盟友的安全保證。今天的美國人也不想為台北而死,但是,危險在於美國放棄台灣將傳達出什麼給全世界。In sum, the best way to ensure no one will die for Taiwan is to evince a willingness to die for it.   (brief)

●  壹新聞 6-3-2020: 一旦台海發生戰爭, 美國將先『靜觀其變』 再看怎麼樣『助台』
      香港蘋果日報
2020/05/26 (https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20200526/B4HVP63JVMLJPU5PMGFQPPDRJE/) : 台海發生戰爭時,中共會靠東風-26中程彈道飛彈等築成的「反介入」戰略(A2AD),將美軍拒於千里之外,無法協防台灣。但美軍可以發動網路戰、情報戰、經濟制裁,甚至騷擾以至攻擊沿海城市等,美軍可擔任台灣的「眼睛」......

●  Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, Forbes :   the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war. 入侵的间越,美和日本等大援助台的可能性就越大

●  歐盟 Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020  https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/  :  Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force  by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately  解放在其舒適區台湾 可能不促使盛顿立即對中共宣

●  The Diplomat 6-8-2020:  Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.

●  Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020:  After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.  鑒於近20年的歷史教訓,  川普應該要事先問問美國人民是否願意再度被捲入一場與他們不算太相干的台海戰爭

 澳洲 ABC Radio National, Australia,  27 February 2020 :   In the US, both sides of politics have reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the Taiwanese military is well armed and prepared for any possible Chinese incursion.   How the wider international community would respond to cross-strait conflict remains unclear. 國際社會對台海軍事衝突的反應尚不確知


  美國東亞助國防部長 Heino Klinck, deputy assistant secretary of defence,  5-30-2020, 新唐人電視  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af7In-LUEIQ)

       美軍以威懾為目標  大於象徵意義 售台武器對威懾或擊敗解放軍將非常有用 可確保台灣自我防衛能力 更重要的是令共軍對武力攻台的算計產生懷疑 (brief: in deterring or defeating PLA  is much much useful, frankly ...  and I think maybe this is even more important that it creates doubts or should creates doubts in PLA's calculation)

●  紐約時報 (New York times),  11-4-2017: 美國的支持,已經被中國的軍事現代化「削弱或消除了」。美國海軍戰爭學院(Naval War College) Andrew S. Erickson說:「台灣需要認識到,它的防務最終還是要看自己。」

●  National Interest, 5-31-2020 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-taiwan-needs-nuclear-weapons-159261
   
 
if Taiwan was gifted medium-range nuclear weapons which were placed under its control, it would both acquire a sufficient deterrent in order to maintain stability if not peace across the Taiwan Strait and absolve the United States of the need to deploy multiple carrier groups to the region should communist China attack 美國專家評論連航空母艦群也不想派,而討論讓台灣以中程核武自保  (ps: 台灣擁核原是中共動武條件之一)

●   英國  Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning 

●   俄羅斯官營媒體  Sputnik 6-30-2020:   不要一廂情願  政論擔心  美國可能不願為了台灣與中国交戰   'Wishful Thinking’: US May Be Unwilling to Fight China Over Taiwan, Strategists Fear , ‘The Situation is a lot Grimmer’   there’s reason to worry that Trump will lose interest in Taiwan. He’d trade away Taiwan in a heartbeat if he thought it would get him his trade deal with China.     sputniknews.com/asia/202006301079760590-wishful-thinking-us-may-be-unwilling-to-fight-china-over-taiwan-strategists-fear/

●   中国 South China Morning Post, 6-30-2020: Taiwan warned against ‘wishful thinking’ that US will come to rescue if China attacks  台灣警告不要“一廂情願”以為美國定前來營救

●   中国 South China Morning Post, 7-7-2020: If Taiwan declares independence, it is almost certain that China will go to war. However, it is far from certain that the United States will be willing to shed American blood to defend a faraway island in Asia.  如果台灣宣布獨立,幾乎可以肯定中國會發動戰爭。但是,美國是否願意為捍衛亞洲遙遠的島嶼而流血,這還不是很確定

●   蘋果日報 6-6-2020 editorial: 在香港版「國安法」問題上,美被視為雷聲大雨點小。英、澳、加共同批評中國,但澳洲、 歐盟說不會因此事制裁中國

●  Chicago Global Affairs Council

        "Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?美國民意支持出兵嗎?

 

  2015 2018 2019
China invades Taiwan 中侵台 28% 35% 38%
N. Korea invade S. Korea  北韓侵南韓 47 64 58
China initiates a military conflict w Japan over disputed islands中日軍事衝突 33 41 43
Russia invades a NATO ally (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc) 45 54 54
 https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/report_ccs19_rejecting-retreat_20190909.pdf


●  New York Post,  5-26-2020:   (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.

●  Taiwan News 6-1-2020:  美國被迫參與戰役 引起全球災難 the U.S. would then be forced to join the battle once Beijing's troops cross the Taiwan Strait, leading to catastrophic global warfare ...  / Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison

●   The Hill 6-16-2020: 在1995年中国向台發射導弹的两次事件之間,中国軍方直接向美助理國防部 長约瑟夫·奈(Assistant Defense Secretary Joseph Nye)问:如果中国進攻台湾,美國會怎麼做?奈回應:“我们不知道,你也不知道;这要视情况而定  (“We don’t know and you don’t know; it would depend on the circumstances.”)  https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan

●   聯合報  6-19-2020 2018年九月,資深的知名白宮記者伍華德出書,提及在討論南韓的國安會議中,川普質疑美國在朝鮮半島維持大量軍力,究竟得到什麼?他接著問:「告訴我,我們花錢保護台灣,能得到什麼?」... /

https://udn.com/news/story/7339/4645500?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
  黃奎博/政大國際事務學院全球及區域風險評估中心主任

●   蘋果日報 6-17-2020 editorial: 中國中央電視台紀錄片 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGypbE_r0NE etc): 民國47年8月23日 八二三砲戰 ,美軍曾護航台灣軍艦運補金門,但共軍一砲擊,美艦立刻撤退,足見美國的保護承諾不可恃  但反過來看 ...... (brief)    PS: 當年台灣與美國有正式外交關係

●  The National Interest, 7-6-2020:  Washington will not automatically honor its informal security commitment to Taiwan. Like Britain at the outset of World War II, Taiwan must show itself to be a worthy and affordable cause. For its part, Beijing will try to depreciate Taiwan’s value to Americans ... Will it be easy to defend Taiwan? No.   華盛頓不會自動履行對台灣的非正式安全承諾就像二戰爆發時的英國一樣 ...... 嘗試偉大的壯舉“不是因為它們很容易,而是因為它們很難。”

●   Bloomberg 6-24-2020: Even absent a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, the United States can telegraph that commitment by making the choices required to ensure it can defend Taiwan successfully.

●   Taiwan News, 7-2-2020:  Bolton: the outside world still generally sees a Biden presidency as less favorable for Taiwan.

Trump’s behavior shows that he only cares about re-election and that Trump will continue to take a hard stance on Beijing during these last four months before the election, but the problem is that if Trump is elected on November 3, no one knows what he will do on November 4.  波頓研判美國總統未來友台或親中? 因為家人與大陸的關係拜登會較偏向中國 至於川普 他只關心連任 在11-3前會對中國強硬 但11-4後就沒人知道會怎麼樣,波頓認為他會打電話給習談交易

●  National Interest Organization,  3-5-2019   https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

        In the 2017 TNSS polls survey, most (43.4 percent) thought America will not support Taiwan, while 40.5 percent believed America will commit troops to a conflict. In 2019, however, the number believing Washington will provide troops jumped to 48.5 percent, while the number who think it will not fell to 35.3 percent. If an attack is unprovoked, the percentage of Taiwanese who believe the United States will intervene soars to 60 percent.

    分析 
 
秀施壓
Foreign Policy 5-15-2020:  March
2019,兩架中共 J-11戰鬥機故意越過台灣海峽的中線,   這是20年來的第一次。 今年又有兩次,數十架中共飛機越過海峽中線中國時報 China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: 過去幾個月,美國和大陸在台海周邊頻頻展現肌肉,光是4月,美軍便13度派機飛近台海周邊空域  尤其B-1B超音速戰略轟炸機編隊三度飛近台灣,更具戰略意涵。大陸不干示弱,8日午間一架「運8」型機企圖闖入我防空識別區...  壹電視 Next TV news 5-8-2020:  Jan. 23 至 April 22,  共軍(共包括轟6殲11航艦) 8次襲擾1度逾台海中線

界各國會出兵嗎?
  美國學者(
MSU, 5-4-2018) 指出美國沒有給台灣一個"鐵定"的保護承諾 ( an “iron-clad” commitment.)
◆  <自由時報> ,1-24-2020: 『台灣關係法』等戰略模糊的約定, 未規定美國有出兵的義務。

◆  華府一研討會('17)引用的民調顯示僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台 ( CTN opinion, 4-21-2018 )。

◆  由上述美國東亞助國防部長Heino Klinck美國海軍戰爭學院Andrew S. Erickson 的說法,還是以軍售確保台灣自我防衛能力為主,其他講的似乎不夠斬釘截鐵。 全文請詳:

    新唐人電視 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af7In-LUEIQ  5-30-2020 ;   香港大紀元時報  https://hk.epochtimes.com/news/2020-06-01/56402613

    美國之音  https://www.voacantonese.com/a/dod-official-says-us-has-prepared-for-scenarios-in-taiwan-strait-to-creat-doubt-in-pla-war-planners-20200529/5441622.html

    自由時報  https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3181834

    中國時報  https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200530001066-260409?chdtv

   華視  tw.news.yahoo.com/中國再提武統台灣-美國防部-協助台灣自我防衛-042000618.html


◆  綜合台灣中時 (5-12-2020), 蘋果日報 (5-13-2020) 社論:  願意直接提案支持台灣參與WHA者,目前僅限13個邦交 小國,吳釗燮坦承美不提案, 其他強國拿了口罩,只是「聲」援,沒有行動。UDN editorial 5-17-2020: "外交照會" 有8國。

WHO提案都不肯( ref. to 聯合報, 5-11-2020 外交部長所述 ) 美國連軍艦停靠台灣港口現在也不考慮 ( ps: 因為無外交關係,  H. Klinck的理由 ,  www.voacantonese.com/a/dod-official-says-us-has-prepared-for-scenarios-in-taiwan-strait-to-creat-doubt-in-pla-war-planners-20200529/5441622.html )   強國們會冒敗仗風險 冒總統敗選之險  犧牲國民生命 來營救台灣嗎?      雖然目前美軍秀肌肉似乎要插手,或屬梭哈式嚇唬不無可能,但為它自己開打就頗有可能,至於大打小打... 謎底大概要等到戰時才會揭曉 ! 

 

 

強國簽的約都有撕毀的紀錄,   模凌兩可的措辭,    台灣得格外小心 !  不要那天成了砲灰或棄子
 

 
 

   

     

    台灣軍購

   

●   The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 :  台灣常被批评購買不實用的武器,但是台灣把這些軍售拿來威慑中共,  說是將继续獲得美國政治承诺的信號。

   

●  Republic World, 5-25-2020:  China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.

   

●  華盛頓郵報 Washington Post,  5-30-2020   The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.
特朗普政府去年同意向台灣出售價值80億美元的新型F-16戰鬥機 ,這是數十年來台灣最大,最重要的武器銷售。

   

●   聯合報社論/ 2020-06-06
       當下台灣國防的最大難題,正是預算不足。
       面臨裝備老舊問題的不僅是海軍,陸軍的戰車和火砲,空軍的幻象戰機及C-130運輸機等主力,皆到了須汰舊換新或性能提升的年紀。單單現役老舊裝備的更新,即遠超出預算所能支應。

       李登輝後期、陳水扁、蔡英文持續揮霍「沒有和平的和平紅利」。長期低估國防需求...

       國軍近年標榜「發展不對稱戰力」,都是表面功夫。
   

 

●  L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references )

          Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island.   Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent. (許多中國的軍事現代化都是針對武統台灣而發展,   因為民進黨主張台灣的正式獨立,   這是北京要以武力防止的)

          The U.S. is the island’s main source of military support against China’s military threats.  Since 2008, the United States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter aircraft, tanks, and missiles.  
        The Diplomat said that while the U.S. remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be important partners as well.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has imported arms from countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States.  (美國是台灣武器的主要來源, 但除了這個far and away 的賣主, 其他國家也可以是重要的伙伴,   依據瑞典SIPRI研究, 許多強國都曾出口武器給台灣)
        However, China called the Taiwan issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and military contacts between Taiwan and any country
.   Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship. (然而,  中國反對友邦與台進行任何軍事交易,  才上周,  北京就催促法國取銷一筆已簽約的訂單)

   

 

●   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.  美國務卿: 每次我與中国相關官員相談, 都會澄清將恪守雷根政府以來的承諾,   好消息是中国共黨也直接說會恪守承諾,  我們希望他們會...

   

        PS: 雷根政府的承諾

 

◆ 
U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982)  "817公報"
the United States of America recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. 承認PRC是中國唯一合法政府
The Chinese Government reiterates that the question of Taiwan is China’s internal affair. The Message to Compatriots in Taiwan issued by China on January 1, 1979 promulgated a fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Nine-Point Proposal put forward by China on September 30, 1981 represented a further major effort under this fundamental policy to strive for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question. 和平解決台灣問題
 the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution. 不尋求執行長期向台灣出售武器的政策,向台灣出售的武器在性能和數量上將不超過中美建交後近幾年供應的水平,它準備逐步減少它對台灣的武器出售,並經過一段時間導致最後的解決。
 
 

◆  Arms sales to Taiwan   NSC Declassification Review (EO 13526)   "白宮備忘錄" 1982

...
The US willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences.  It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of US foreign policy.
It is essential that the quantity and quality of the arms provided Taiwan be conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC.   (brief)  美國對台提供武器之性能與數量完全視中華人民共和國所構成之威脅而定。無論就數量和性能而言,台灣相對於中華人民共和國之防衛能力皆應得到維持。

 


◆   2016年7月,美參眾兩院通過《88號共同決議案》與《38號共同決議案》,並書面表述六項保證:

美國不贊成對台軍售設定期限。
美國不會為台灣與中國扮演調人。
美國不會施壓要求台灣與中國談判。
美國不會改變對台灣主權的立場。
美國不會修改台灣關係法。
《八一七公報》不表示美國對台軍售之前會徵詢北京意見。

 

   

 

 華盛頓郵報 Washington Post,    1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
       Can China really take over Taiwan?

         因台拒統一習近平命軍隊進入隨時備戰狀況  美如派8艘潛艇可摧4成入侵之解放軍  台須增加軍購  Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.”  ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China.  A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

   

    I WANT YOU !   誰是"勇敢ㄟ台灣囡仔"...?? 

 

 

 

  China-US-Focus  5-4-2018 
( https://www.chinausfocus.com/society-culture/taiwan-public-opinion-and-national-security-implications-for-washington-and-taipei)

 

 

 

★  Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) 的民意測驗發現, 若解放軍進攻台灣,   近68%的台灣人願意參戰 , 
台灣媒體樂於將這個結果刊登在頭條新聞上; 可惜因為測試方法不佳,  導致結果
不正確◦

 

 

 

China-US-Focus,  5-4-2018  :  更可靠的 是由政治大學美國杜克(Duke)大學 亞洲安全研究計劃合作的台灣國家安全調查(TNSS)
這項科學調查發現
一旦兩岸開戰 台灣人民的選擇是
:
wait and see
等看情況
leave the country

逃跑出國

join the army to fight against the invasion
從軍
 support the government’s decision,
支持政府決定
resist
抵抗
hide away
躲起來
choose to surrender
投降
commit suicide

自殺

人民反應
36.9% 16% 4.9% 6.2% 4.1% 2.2% 1.8% 0.1% 百分比
   

15.2%

     

PS:  壞消息是,絕大多數人計劃“拭目以待”,“離開國家”,“藏”或“選擇投降”。

 

 

 

 

★  兩岸交戰  台灣人民的選擇 ??  1-31-2019  <新新聞>,   https://www.new7.com.tw/SNewsView.aspx?Key=%25&i=TXT20190123171352BO0&p=29  美國Duke大學研究
順其自然 無反應 逃跑出國 從軍 支持政府決定 抵抗 躲起來 留台 投降 等死 人民反應
24.3% 23% 14.4% 9.2% 6.5 6.4 4.4 2.1 2.1% 1.6% 百分比
     

22.1%

       

 

 

 

 

★  National Interest Organization,  3-5-2019

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

 

TNSS兩次民意測驗(以及較早的調查)都發現,近45%計劃“離開國家”,“不幸地接受局勢”(unhappily accept the situation),“藏”或“選擇投降”。
此外,每次調查都顯示23%的人“不知道”該如何回應,大多數人認為大多數台灣人會抵抗襲擊。但是民意測驗發現,百分之七十的人認為台灣無法贏得戰爭。
換句話說,台灣人同意David Axe的文章“發射新導彈不能拯救台灣”(
New Missile Launchers Won't Save Taiwan's Navy
)的論點,即在任何衝突中,“解放軍將佔上風”。

 

 

 

 

            其他參考資料  ● http://www.dooo.cc/2018/04/43857.shtml    台灣民主基金會”, "聯合報",  政治大學, 4-15-2018   

 5-8-2019:  新黨  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox4EVm45Kvc  相關民調指出,願意上戰場的年輕人,比例約20%左右,但當告訴他們可能要犧牲生命,傷亡家人後,比例瞬間減少到10%以下。

 

 

 

 

  台灣民主 ... click !!  top rankings !!

 

 

 

 

 


      

 

 

  pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 美國Bing第1, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-4-2020, 6-2-2020

 

 

 

        HOT !      台灣旅遊       台灣餐廳       台灣軍力       介紹台灣       台灣民主      評論台灣      台灣人格     網軍      政治迫害
 

 

 

 

     

  
pic. left: "台灣軍隊"英文版排名Bing第1;   No.1"Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-26-2020, 5-20-2020; 

pic. right : "台灣軍力" 排名Yahoo第1; No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-20-2020

 

ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

 

 
 
 news:   NBC news, 6-21-2020: What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength," warned by Global Times. 最终决定台海局勢走向的是一場實力競賽    South China Morning Post  6-24-2020: Risk of military conflict between US and China higher than ever... 中美軍事衝突的風險比以往任何時候都高  New York Times, National Post, Reuters, Yahoo News,  6-23-2020: Taiwan raps China for military activity, says it should fight virus instead.  中国應優先處理疫情 而非軍事活動 ; 央視: 蘇貞昌藉美國公布所謂中國軍力評估報告,惡毒攻擊中國挑動兩岸對立,刻意混淆台獨與台灣,再次暴露其頑固謀獨本質。蘇回應"國台辦太抬舉他了,他絕不會挑動兩岸和平"     壹新聞 6-24-2020: 台海緊張 蔡英文:時刻緊盯 中時 6-24-2020: 蔡英文:近來臺海情勢確實很複雜,越來越複雜... 一個非常複雜的情勢  VOA 美國之音 6-24-2020, 6-25-2020 (標題更改3次):  8共機進入台灣空域, 目標是警告美軍 ( ps: United Press International, 6-25-2020 引用蘋果日報: 共機迫近台灣防空識別區外加油的美軍機 KC-135, 與p/3c ; 民視 6-24-2020: 另一種可能是 美軍穿越我防空識別區.www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce3UM2P6nPc ◆  土耳其 Daily Sabah, 6-22-2020: Chinese air force including at least one bomber jet and J10 approach Taiwan 共機至少一轟炸機與殲10今逼近台灣空域  (ps: 6-16起7天6次, 1-5月共7次)  ◆ 中共"大外宣"之主要國際媒體 CGTN, 6-22-2020:  中国The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: 大陸不放棄使用武力 是针對外来势力的干涉極少数分裂主義者及其分裂活动。Su Tseng-chang (Taiwan PM) "viciously attacked" the mainland, attempted to stir up confrontation across the Strait, and deliberately confused "Taiwan independence" and Taiwan  ◆  Newsweek, 6-22-2020: China, Taiwan protest Japan's renaming islands area in East China Sea  ◆   Reuters 6-18-2020: Chinese fighter jets buzz Taiwan again, stoking tensions 中国戰机嘶轰聲再次劃過台灣天際,紧張局勢加劇   Voice of America, Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: A former U.S. defense official told VOA that last week's flight by a U.S. Navy aircraft showed the U.S. does not consider Taiwan to be part of Chinese territory. FoxNews, 6-23-2020: (US) Navy brings massive carrier power to Taiwan Strait, SCS

 

 

   

 

 

pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名 Yahoo search engine第3, 6-15-2020, 6-4-2020 

 

 

         

pic. left: "台灣軍隊" 排名 Lycos第1, 6-9-2020;    pic. right: "台灣軍隊" 排名 Yippy (IBM)第2, 6-9-2020;   

 

 

 

pic. : "台灣軍隊" 排名Dogpile第1, 6-9-2020

 

 

      

pic. left:  Top ranking "Taiwan army" on Yahoo search engine (US), 5-26-2020

pic. right:  Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Yahoo search engine (US), 5-26-2020

 

 

pic. :  "台灣軍隊" 排名德國柏林Ecosia第1;    No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 5-20-2020

 

 

 

              

pic. left:  "台灣軍隊" 排名 歐洲德國 MetaGER.de 第 1 , 6-4-2020 (English version)

pic. right:  "台灣軍隊" 排名 歐洲德國 MetaGER.de 第 3 , 6-3-2020


 

ps:   台灣網軍   Taiwan internet army , click for full details
  top rankings on Bing, Yahoo, etc

 

 

 

軍中陋習,例如必須自掏腰包補足帳目早已不清的財務與軍品黑洞等狀況

   

   

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 5-31-2020
 

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Lycos, 5-20-2020; 
 

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Dogpile, 5-20-2020; 

 

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Excite, 5-20-2020 

 

 

 

中美拿台灣當戰場 /

 

 

 聯合報(UDN) 6-10-2020 報導:

一架美國海軍波音C-40運輸機

自沖繩起飛,
繞過基隆後沿我西部陸地上空

向南飛行,

同時,中共蘇愷30戰機

多架次,
短暫進入台灣西南空域...
(brief)

 

 

◆  中國時報 6-10-2020:

 

 

C-40A運輸機,本質是軍機,

性質不但侵犯大陸主權領空,

也嚴重威脅大陸沿海安全。

嚴重違背「中美三公報」原則,

是嚴重軍事挑釁,

大陸多架次蘇-30上午
在台灣西南部空域

戰備巡航。

解放軍顯然已在軍事上

做出回應,接下來在政治、

外交方面亦然。

 

 

中國時報  新聞透視   04:102020/06/10
在退役軍事將領圈,一直有種說法,

認為美軍很想試共軍虛實,

但不可能拿美國軍人的命去冒險,

最好的做法當然是挑台海,

讓兩岸自己打

,只要打,對大陸國力就是不利。

 

正因為美國在兩岸間挑撥,

不管是台灣或大陸,戰略定力

都要站穩,

台灣要的是兩岸和平,

大陸的國家戰略是振興與脫貧,

只要兩岸各自把持戰略定力,

避免擦槍走火,

不論美方再怎麼撩,

台海終能避免戰端

 

 

 

旺報社評》兩岸關係的五個真相

 

17:442020/06/16 言論 言論部

 

各種跡象顯示,北京在5年內要先實現最低綱領的決心愈加明顯。

 

 
 

,軍方高層卻往往選

擇不要去捅那些或許他們自己也有責任,甚至是共犯結構的「歷史共業」)

 

   其他相關資訊

 

Annual Report to US Congress (2018): 台彎 VS 大陸 軍力對比
                Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018
                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

            

           

 

  ●   蘋果日報,  Aug. 15, 2018: 美國簽<國防授權法>, 強化對台軍售
        中共環球時報網,  Aug. 15, 2018:
中國不是美國對手......美國會知道台灣並不便宜

 

 
  ●   紐約時報New York times,  5-18-2017:  台灣必须直接面 對中国解放軍的威脅

          中国領導長期宣称,必要 時以武力占领台灣。 而台灣長年以來都將抵抗解放軍的责任 推卸給美国,似乎寄望美国的子女冒生命危險來保衛我们的家園。 随着中国军力的發展、 與其强硬姿態的未受 制肘,台湾的命運或将 淪為中国主導Beijing’s belligerence presents an existential threat to Taiwan, Chinese leaders have long vowed to take Taiwan by force if they deem necessary  ...  For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States. 

        長年以來,台灣政府未正 視中国不斷增強的威脅, 且假設美國一定會出兵解救台湾,並以此规劃國防、國民黨及倾向獨立的民進黨的政策,皆導致 軍力不足  ―  現役正規軍砍半成二十萬人、 二百萬後備軍人形同虚设、 且士氣低落。Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue.  Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 目前台灣常备部队约21万人,后备军人约300万人。  Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  )

         台灣國防现状,基本是 政客與軍方間互不信任的结果。 軍方一直身陷種種丑聞之中Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals ...

 /  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion

 

●  美國國務院 US  Dept of State,  U.S. Relations With Taiwan  9-13-2017:  美方堅持和平解決二岸爭端反對片面改變現狀鼓勵雙方基於尊嚴互重進行建設性談話 The United States insists on the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait differences, opposes unilateral changes to the status quo by either side, and encourages both sides to continue their constructive dialogue on the basis of dignity and respect. /  https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35855.htm

 

●  美國智庫傳統基金會 The Heritage Foundation, The Index of U.S. Military Strength, 2017

        

         美國已無法同時應付兩場大型區域戰爭 ,因此美國改以「聯盟手段」因應,要求日本、韓國等盟邦,承擔更多防衛任務,以抵銷軍力規...

       China’s provocative behavior has expanded to include militarization of islands that it has built in highly disputed international waters in the South China Sea. China has also adopted aggressive naval tactics to intimidate such neighboring countries as Japan and the Philippines... the 2017 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force  ...  certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies ... /  http://index.heritage.org/military/2017/assessments/

  Why China Can't Conquer Taiwan in a War , 11-17-2017   Zachary Keck http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-cant-conquer-taiwan-war-23254
      A new study by Michael Beckley (Tufts University), published in the academic journal International Security argues that China’s neighbors could thwart Chinese military aggression through anti-access/area denial strategies with only minimal U.S. assistance. ...   if China was far more successful than the United States had been in those conflicts, Beijing’s ability to execute an amphibious invasion is still far from certain. For instance, Beckley notes that only ten percent of Taiwan’s coastlines are suitable for an amphibious landing, which would allow Taipei to concentrate its forces on a few key areas. Chinese forces trying to land would likely be severely outnumbered...美國外交政治雜誌《美國利益》(The National Interest)專文「為何中國無法武統台灣?」,引述美國Tufts University Michael Beckley 《國際安全》期刊論文: 北京根本無法擊敗亞太鄰國;事實上,中共連台灣也無法征服;僅管北京確能透過一些外交手段,嚇唬鄰國。北京的周邊鄰國,可以透過「反介入/區域阻絕武器」(Anti-access and area-denial,即A2AD武器防禦) ,並在美國適度協助之下,即可挫敗中國的領土擴張野心。

●  <The Chinese Invasion Threat> by Ian Eastonct., Oct. 3, 2017 :

       中共於 2020年可能以發射飛彈封鎖海空等的方式侵略台灣 最終可能幾乎確定無法成功 China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said.  ...China, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack. 

●  New York times,  10-19-2017:  https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171019/china-xi-jinping-party-congress/dual/

    習近平演講掌聲最熱烈的一段Chinese president Xi delivered the line that won the loudest applause of his marathon speech: “We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
        Apple Daily, 10-20-2017,  "趙少康傳真" :
        習近平演講共32000多 字
其中800多字提到台灣 在習近平眼中台灣問題似乎不那麼重要 (brief)

 蘋果日報 2-5-2018 社論: 中共已經成功地把受帝國主義羞辱的悲情民族情緒,轉移到對台灣拒統的悲憤上,為武力犯台作好對百姓洗腦的準備。難解的是台灣人民也為400年來都被外人統治而悲情,...
中國犯台比異族間的戰爭複雜
https://tw.appledaily.com/headline/daily/20180205/37924430 ; 蘋果日報12-22-2017社論: 中國不斷揚言武統台灣,訴諸...帝國主義者對中國的羞辱及國共內戰的記憶。 https://tw.appledaily.com/headline/daily/20180131/37919883; 蘋果日報12-22-2017社論  指出,要徹底放棄美軍援台的幻想

●  英國 BBC , 12-3-2016   http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538
         中共試射飛彈事件導致美國派遣艦隊抵達台海 ,此越戰以來在亞洲最大規模的戰力展示, 向中共傳遞了清楚的訊息 he pivotal role of the US was most clearly shown in 1996, when China conducted provocative missile tests to try and influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election. In response, US President Bill Clinton ordered the biggest display of US military power in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait, and a clear message to Beijing.

●  国家政策研究基金会 NPF  National Policy Foundation in Taipei, Taiwan;  10-7-2017 CTN

      台海安全 仍繫於美軍是否介入...最大的不確定性仍是「美軍是否介入」,且在2025年之前,美軍相對中共仍有明顯優勢,與其說押注與否,不如說是因「美軍不可測」的因子無法排除。 

         美國將海軍兵力重點移防亞太地區,主要是因應中國大陸擴張,以保持美國軍事影響力,加上常態兵力部署多,一旦危機發生,反應速度更多,因此對岸短期內不會採取軍事冒進的動作,進而形成對台的支持與保證。
         國政基金會國安組 揭仲表示,美軍確實在戰力上有問題,甚至一場大型、一場中型衝突應變能力都變差 

    
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171007000342-260119

The Chinese Invasion Threat China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said.

 

●  Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) raised doubts over the time frame Easton asserted, saying that he did not think it is very precise.

 

China, according to the book <The Chinese Invasion Threat>, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack. 

 

pic.: Headline of Apple Daily, Oct. 6, 2017

  http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/05/2003679744;   http://freebeacon.com/natiChina’s

 

 

  ●US Annual Report to Congress, 2017

 

   


Annual Report to US Congress (2017)
: 台彎 VS 大陸 軍力對比
Military and Security Developments Involving
the People’s Republic of China 2017
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

 

 

China VS Taiwan

 
  Taiwan Strait military balance

  China VS Taiwan

 

 

 
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
各國國防預算 2016  Defense Budget Comparison (Adjusted for Inflation),  Billion (USD)
China (Official Budget)  $144.3
Russia (National Defense Budget)   $46.2
Japan   $47.2
India  $37.0
Republic of Korea  $32.8
Taiwan  $10.5

 

 

ps: Apple daily, 11-28-2017: 中共前往first island chain包括陜西出發的H-6K (轟 6K), 不限於沿海第一戰線機場,  因此台灣解讀解放軍兵力, 不可侷限於單一戰區以免誤判.  (brief - author 林穎佑 中正大學戰略國際事務研究所)

 

   ● Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force (北京將大國防預算  集中於發展武統台灣的軍事力量)
 

   ●  Apple Daily, 12-19-2017   台彎 VS. 大陸   ( 軍力對比)

 

pic. left: China military capacity VS Taiwan;   pic. right: Chinese air force did lots of "patrol circling" (flying around Taiwan and passing through 1st island chain ).

China military VS Taiwan military Chinese air force "patrol circling" around Taiwan
   

 Source: Apple Daily News, head-page and focus news, 12-19-2017; data from Taiwan's national defense gov.●●

   請注意下段 文字無法上傳, 因此以hard copy 圖像上傳 !!

     Apple Daily, 2-21-2018, opinion : 共軍非必勝 國軍非必敗 (ref to IISS of UK, and <The Chinese Invasion Threat> by Ian Eastonct.)

   ●  US Annual Report to Congress, 2016

                OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Annual Report to Congress:
                台彎VS大陸軍力對比 Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2016%20China%20Military%20Power%20Report.pdf
 

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Naval Forces
China China Taiwan
Total East and South Sea Fleets Total
Aircraft Carriers 1 0 0
Destroyers 23 16 4
Frigates 52 40 22
Corvettes 23 14 1
Tank Landing Ships/ Amphibious Transport Dock 30 28 14
Medium Landing Ships 22 16 0
Diesel Attack Submarines 57 38 4
Nuclear Attack Submarines 5 2 0
Ballistic Missile Submarines 4 4 0
Coastal Patrol (Missile) 86 68 45

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Air Forces
China China Taiwan
Total Within range of Taiwan Total

 

Fighters 1,700 130 384
Bombers/Attack 400 200 0
Transport 475 150 19
Special Mission Aircraft 115 75 25

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Ground Forces
China China Taiwan
Total Taiwan Strait Area Total
Personnel (Active) 1.25 million 400,000 130,000
Group Armies/Army Corps 18 8 3
Infantry Divisions 12 4 0
Infantry Brigades 23 7 5
Mechanized Infantry Divisions 7 4 0
Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Divisions 2 2 0
Mechanized Infantry Brigades 25 8 3
Armor Divisions 1 0 0
Armor Brigades 17 7 4
Amphibious Armor Brigades 1 1 0
Army Aviation Brigades and Regiments 11 6 3
Artillery Brigades 22 9 5
Airborne Divisions 3 3 0
Marine Brigades 2 2 2
Tanks 7,000 2,800 1,100
Artillery Pieces 8,000 3,900 1,600

 

 

 

 

 


      

  
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military"(台灣軍隊) on US Bing, 5-17-2020

 

 

 

pic. : No.3 "台灣軍隊" on Hotbot, 6-16-2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

avoid this !  

      

   ( visual parody of Hong Kong film "倩女幽魂"   
https://tw.iqiyi.com/v_19rtzdoysw.html   https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%80%A9%E5%A5%B3%E5%B9%BD%E9%AD%82_(1987%E5%B9%B4%E9%9B%BB%E5%BD%B1) )