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News: ◆ FoxNews 7-8-2020: The passage of a national security law on Hong Kong has put Taiwan on edge, with pro-democracy activists fearing that Beijing will soon have the self-ruled island in its crosshairs 北京將 鎖定狙捕台灣 ◆ Washington Post 7-7-2020: HK national security law could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan ... China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy  港國安法可作治台藍圖 ， 並進一步備戰 ◆  CNBC 7-6-2020:  中美軍事演習 擦槍走火的可能性很小，但也不是零 ◆ National Interest 7-6-2020:   ... attempt great feats “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”  中國和台灣可能走向攤牌... 。   ◆ New York Times, 7-2-2020:  The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing. Yet the two sides are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise. 兩岸軍事衝突的可能仍然遙遠，因為戰爭代價不菲。然而，雙方漸行漸遠，都不願妥協。 ◆ New York Times, 6-26-2020:  When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...  American warships through the South China Sea and stepped up support for Taiwan and its military 當主權受到挑戰時，中国會非常強硬回應... 美軍已加強了對台灣的支持， 隨著美國總統大選的升溫，中美對抗的可能性將會增加。 ◆  Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning  在重大警告下  美國不會出兵拯救台灣  ◆ New York Times, 6-21-2020:  It’s a quite deliberate Chinese strategy to try to maximize what they perceive as being a moment of distraction and the reduced capability of the United States to pressure neighbors 中共的策略是充分運用並最大化美國分散注意力導致戰力下降的時刻 ◆ 英國 Express 6-23-2020:  FEARS of a World War 3 have been ignited once again   第三次世界大戰的恐懼再次點燃 / 中共: 美國軍艦屢次侵入中国領土，  並越過台灣海峽  ◆  英國 Express, 6-17-2020:  World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies 第三次世界大戰alert：随着台灣争端加劇，中国準備“軍事鬥争”  ◆  Express (UK), 6-12-2020: World War 3  alert /  a Chinese military plane crossed an unofficial airspace boundary in Taiwan Strait after a missile-intercept drill ... Taiwan sovereignty regarded by int'l community as a major potential flashpoint 台灣的主權爭議是戰爭引爆點之一  ◆  英國 Express 6-13-2020: China WW3 threat: Beijing military insider exposes how war could soon break out with US 第三次世界大戰威脅形成，中美隨時可能爆發戰爭  ◆ 澳洲 The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台灣當成挫敗北京的工具，會危害台灣的安全,  導致最後放棄台灣 ◆ 英國 Express 6-16-2020 23:08 Tue :  US and China naval vessel nearly collide escalating ‘conflict risk in South China Sea’  中美軍艦險撞  “南海軍事衝突風險”升級 ◆  日本 Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-20-2020 : 隨著台灣加深與美國的關係，兩岸緊張局勢加劇，台 灣需提高警惕避免擦槍走火  ◆  英國 Express, 7-2-2020:  China’s grand expansion plan laid bare as Taiwan told: ‘You’re next!’   中國的大外擴計劃浮出水面：“台灣就是下一個！”
   台灣擔憂 中国武統嗎?

           蔡英文接受CNN 2-19-2020專訪時說到,台灣軍力與對岸相比, 只是弱勢 的"underdog" , 一旦開戰 , 台灣抵擋第一波攻擊後, 希望世界各國能挺身而出施壓 ... 在蔡英文就職前夕 , 英國Financial Times  5-19-2020報導 , 面對中共逐漸升高的軍事威脅, 台灣方面感到恐懼。 英國 Express (UK), 6-10-2020: 南中国海危機：台灣對共軍入侵的担憂加劇，美國向南中国海派出無人機與B-1B轟炸機。  英國太陽報 (The SUN) 5-25-2020報導 , 解放軍演習引起台灣害怕 ('has sparked fears in Taiwan') 。 英國Express 5-30-2020報導, 北京威脅侵台引起全面戰爭的恐懼 (Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring Taiwan) 。Express (UK), 6-3-2020: 北京拒台和平主張、 不計一切的戰爭引爆恐懼 (South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan) 。台灣壹電視 (Next TV news), 5-8-2020報導 ,  國安局長表示台灣將趨利避害、不攪入 中美紛爭 ... 
            2019年11月中共官方對香港發出最嚴重的警告「勿謂言之不預」(有如最後通牒) , 兩會果然動手 , 2020年4月10日中共 鷹派官媒 對台灣也叫囂「勿謂言之不預」。近年台灣 政府一直請纓或銜命打第一線、 空槍下戰場、"poking the bear" (VOA 5-30-2020, Harvard prof.: Taiwan's push for independence may trigger Chinese military retaliation; 澳洲The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台湾當成挫败北京的工具，會危害台灣的安全。 ) , 且台灣人民在抗疫期未對大陸人民表現同情(Reuters (路透社) 2-26-2020 )、解放軍2020年攻台, 勝算已倒向對方(RAND報告、美國政府出資的 Voice of America )、北京視抗疫期間為千載難逢的武統機會  (New York Times, 6-21-2020, Foreign Policy 5-15-2020)  、對外戰爭可轉移內部壓力  ( WashingtonMonthly, 3-11-2020, Economist, 2020 ) 、 ......等等國際資訊研判, 台灣方面感到緊張、因此 在美國Fox News 抱佛腳、祈求國際支援; 台灣 英文報 Taiwan News 也在6-1-2020刊登"台灣陷入解放軍侵台 的即刻危險之中(Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion)"的聳動大標題，以及 B-1B轟炸機飛近台灣的地圖 。

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   中共會攻台嗎?

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    ★   如何避免台海戰爭? 簡言之， 即美國中共要讓對方知道戰爭代價高後果重、 威懾目的的挑釁 須避免擦槍走火 。澳大利亞The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台灣當成挫败北京的工具，會危害台灣的安全。
    ★    最近(Jun. '20)台灣新聞炒作共軍可能8月攻東沙、及台灣派遣精銳陸戰隊99旅進駐東沙， 經查英國Express 6-23-2020報導 ，日本共同社  Japan’s Kyodo News 是說"It is believed the beach landing trainings are reportedly to simulate the takeover of the Pratas Islands."  ，是『模擬』、不是真攻，中視新聞 台灣新聞眼 6-27-2020 18:5pm: 師大政治教授也認為不是攻打東沙的時機， 雖然中共的海南島演習可以無預警的轉化為進攻東沙 , Global Times 暗示了這一行動，因為東沙對解放軍進入太平洋具有戰略重要性，而且台灣一直在考慮租賃美給美國，作為收集情報和反潛的基地，這對“解放軍來說是危險的” (ref to oilprice 7-6-2020)。   

只是，台灣媒體以「國軍最強盾」大肆宣揚目的為何?  易攻難守的東沙 可能無謂犧牲大批美好生命，兩岸互添血債、走上不歸路，對台灣有甚麼好呢?  另分析指出解放軍若攻東沙、必攻本島 ，英國The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020認為若攻東沙， 只是進攻本島的晃子，既然東沙難守， 何不將東沙租賃美給美國，讓『國軍最強部隊』移守本島... ?   https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1300037/South-China-Sea-Taiwan-china-world-war-3-military-conflict; 大紀元 https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/20/5/12/n12102153.htm; 中評網 https://www.sohu.com/a/395544425_120135071

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    台灣軍力 能對抗解放軍嗎?

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Taiwanese military     vs.     Chinese military
台灣軍隊	軍力評估
官兵	◆  台灣軍方是顆"空 包彈";   美國國防部官員私下對台灣部隊和後備軍表達了悲觀的評估  Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell.  US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system. ◆  募兵制等因素使台灣裝甲兵，機械化步兵和 防砲部隊的人力總是極度短缺 armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers ◆  台灣很少有前線部隊 能補到80％的 兵員職缺 few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled    /  Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/ ◆ 台灣正規軍被砍半不到20萬 (the exact number is classified). 約二百萬後備軍人如同虛設 ... /  New York times,  5-18-2017 ◆  The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.   /  Wikipedia, May 2020 ◆  漢光演習變成了大秀場。乾脆將1年4次合併為1次，嚴重影響了訓練效果，有很高比例的軍官對作戰完全陌生  /   中時7-7-2020
戰略	◆  應對中共的網絡戰, 認知洗腦戰, 超限戰,  台灣必須著重機動戰, 非對稱戰(非傳統武器)  反制解放軍 To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” /  Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020 ◆  國軍近年標榜「發展不對稱戰力」，都是表面功夫。／　聯合報社論／ 2020-06-06
火力	◆  Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan.   /  Forbes, 6-3-2020 ◆  中共有原子彈、核子彈、氫彈, ... 及火箭軍。 台灣的雲峰導彈測試完成, 須從2021年起量產約500枚才可戰略嚇阻 /  Next TV news, 5-8-2020 ◆  Taiwanese military strength is ranked No. 26 ,  China's PLA No. 3  /  Global FirePower, 2020 ◆   李登輝後期、陳水扁、蔡英文持續揮霍「沒有和平的和平紅利」, 造成當下台灣國防的最大難題 ― 預算不足。 /   聯合報 社 論 ,  6-6-2020 ◆   強國不想得罪中國,   因此軍售猶豫 A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... /  New York times,  11-4-2017
後勤	◆  國軍各項裝備的補充，數量、速度都不足。衍生各種流弊 /   United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020
士氣	◆  台灣政府未正 視中国不斷增強的威脅， 且假設美國一定會出兵解救台湾，國民黨及民進黨的政策，皆導致 軍力不足  、且士氣低落。... (brief)  /  New York times,  5-18-2017 ◆  監察院報告:「國人憂患意識低落，後備軍力堪憂」/  民視 8-3-2018 ◆ 面對中共加劇的軍事恫嚇, 台灣感到恐 懼  Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... /  英國Financial Times  5-19-2020
PS:  何以致之?  軍方無能 !  三軍統帥有責 ! 　 ★    Taiwan News 7-3-2020: Taiwan’s defense minister pledges combat preparedness 台灣承諾，軍方做好戰鬥準備。         但根據英國衛報 Guardian 6-27-2020 報導，中共攻打台灣將出動約50%的解放軍總兵力, 據Global Times 6-8-2020 比較中印戰力: 中國適合服兵役人口達6.16億，印度僅4.89億，中國戰鬥機1271架、攻擊機1385架、運輸機782、攻擊直昇機206架、坦克6457、裝甲車 4788 、艦艇714、潛艇 68...，據.storm.mg/article/1829691報導台灣後備軍人僅有31萬餘人曾被召訓，監院調查，2015到2017年「因事出國」(逃兵)合計超過6萬1千人;  恐怕台灣距離承諾鬥準備完成還有遙遠的距離。 至於美軍約一半總兵力部署亞太，但根據NY Times, 7-2-2020 還是強調台灣自衛 ，沒有具體承諾出兵 ，大概只準備放暗箭協防吧?    (台視2020報導早期教召受訓實況:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJnkU_GRClA )  。

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    ●  英國 周日衛報 Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020: 如果中國征服臺灣,這將釋放大約50%的解放軍總兵力,可能部署到目前的西方戰區司令部,面對印度。"Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years":  by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.  https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started

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    ●   美國洛杉磯時報 L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  兩岸戰争唯一可以確定的就是大量的傷亡，是一场災 難。(The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster. )   ◆  美國CNN 2-19-2020: president Tsai I. W.:  "Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" ...  "What we are expecting is, after withstanding the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" .... ◆  台灣聯合報 United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) 社論: 擔心台灣充當美國抗中急先鋒，是否終將成為戰場的棄子或砲灰。
           

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   ●  China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

                Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019  台彎 VS 大陸, 軍力對比

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	"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ... aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019  that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan, China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue. 　 　 usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.
ps: Apple daily, 11-28-2017: 中共前往first island chain包括陜西出發的H-6K (轟 6K), 不限於沿海第一戰線機場,  因此台灣解讀解放軍攻台兵力, 不可侷限於單一戰區以免誤判.  (brief - author 林穎佑 中正大學戰略國際事務研究所)	pic. right: Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019  ;  The Liberty Times 建議不對稱作戰 "asymmetric warfare",  北京為武力促統可能飛彈攻台.
◆  Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization  4-28-2020  https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2       April 24, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress. ◆  Chinese aircraft-carrier,  6-22-2020,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme 　 ◆  China Military Power report 2019  https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/China_Military_Power_FINAL_5MB_20190103.pdf       Core Chinese Military Capabilities: Today’s  PLA  is  still  far  from  being  able  to deploy large numbers of conventional forces globally, but China has developed nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities  that can reach potential adversaries across the globe.

   ●    台灣網軍 Taiwan's internet army / cyber bulling●VS.   China's internet army   (Apple Daily, 5-18-2020 headline news   https://tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200518/HL77HXSQJQU4HGPGWOO5DGL5OU/   中國多年前已建置規模龐大且專業正規網軍部隊，作戰能量遠超過台灣，更具直接殺傷力的精準「武器」，連美國都不敢低估。以中國長期對台的經營與滲透，可見其在網路戰必用力極深 ... brief
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   ●  紐約時報 (New York times),  11-4-2017: 台灣防務體系的核心戰略 - 抵禦两週的中國軍事進攻，等待美國或國際社會的幫助... 五角大廈5月份的報告警告說，台灣可以遏制中國潛在襲擊的「許多歷史優勢」(地理環境，及美國的支持)，已經被中國的軍事現代化「削弱或消除了」。美國海軍戰爭學院(Naval War College) Andrew S. Erickson說：「台灣需要認識到，它的防務最終還是要看自己。」; 川普政府批准對台最新軍售，數字較少，缺乏能給台灣帶來真正優勢的重要系統。中國去年的軍費預算是1440億美元，而台灣的預算只有100億美元。 (Singapore's The Straits Times :

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   ●  United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
          美國之音報導軍事專門機構RAND報告, 如解放軍2020年攻台, 勝算已倒向對方 Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.    China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

          According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

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   ●    民視(FTV) 2-25-2019: 台北市長柯文哲稱美國告訴他台灣只能撐二天;  壹新聞  5-20-2020  9:10pm: "鑑船知識" :  24小時拿下台灣 ?
          Global Times 環球時報, Mar 2018:  解放軍前軍官估計100小時可擊敗台灣 ;
            中視 (CTV news), 12-18-2016: 台灣國防部長估算台灣可抵擋解放軍一周多;
            台海一旦開戰，台灣軍隊能打嗎？ 願意上戰場的年輕人的比例％是多少，當告訴他們可能要犧牲生命後，比例是多少? 
           

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   ●   New York times,  5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China  (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

          台灣人似乎期待美國人的兒女犧牲他們生命來保衛台灣人的家園  We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.    台灣的國防政策是在政客與軍方(醜聞纏身)互不信任下所制定 Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......
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    ●   Global FirePower, 2020 :  Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2.  Russia 3.  Chn 4.  India  5.  Japan  6.  S Korea  16.  Indonesia  17. Saudi Arabia  19.  Australia  22. Vietnam  23. Thai  25. N korea    26.  TW  35.  Myanmar  44. Malaysia  45. UAE  46.  Banladesh  48.  Philippines  51. Singapore ).  In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18.   However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan;  Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc. 
         台灣碰到軍力羸弱的菲律賓也軟趴趴示弱, 就不單純是兵力問題了。

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   ●   蘋果日報 5-1-2020: 密集的出事頻率絕非正常，但軍方能遮掩就遮掩   遮不住就神色凝重道歉，宣布成立調查小組，同樣的SOP下，悲劇一再發生。
           國軍改為募兵制後，一直無法招募足額兵源，軍事院校也早有報考者質與量都不符期待的狀況 ...  ( ps: 不合理但常見的
   ●    Apple Daily (蘋果日報  蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 ：國軍改革 從誠實開始

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	nuclear bomb核彈 neutron bomb中子彈 hydrogen bomb氫彈 countries US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Israel, India, N. Korea, UK, France US, Russia, China, India, France US, Russia, China,  France, UK, N. Korea
pic. left: Ａｔ　５－７－２０２０，　台灣國安局長答詢立法委員， 一旦中美在西太平洋發生衝突，  台灣將趨利避害、保持中立; pic right:　 中美 均擁有 核彈、 中子彈、  氫彈      （　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI壹電視）   Washington Post,  5-21-'20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need to expand China's nuclear and ballistic missile arsenal after the State Department published a paper arguing for the fitting of low-yield nuclear warheads onto submarine-launched missiles.
ｐｉｃ：　 欲戰略嚇阻 台灣需500枚雲峰飛彈 (壹電視 5-13-2020: 已試射成功 可量產) 雲峰飛彈 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书
ｓｏｕｒｃｅ：　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI ＂年代向 錢看＂Next TV news, 5-8-2020 　 ●  Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons. Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon. “The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that can survive an initial Chinese attack and be resilient and lethal for weeks or months,” according to Scott Harold, an analyst at RAND, a California think tank. 　 ● 壹電視 Next TV news, 5-27-2020: 雲峰飛彈射程約2000km, 包含北京南, 2021年可量產 ●  Voice of America, 5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out already with surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles and 66 aircraft in the past.  　 ● South China Morning Post  (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric) Taiwanese missiles are increasing in range and are capable of striking cities in inner China, including strategic targets

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● 英國Financial Times  5-19-2020 : 台灣害怕中共升高的軍事威脅 ― 近來解放軍已更加頻繁的踏入 兩岸傳統上的緩衝區,  中美爭端對立的升高也增加了台灣的危機感  ( Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone.   Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China. https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d   ) 

   美軍  VS   解放軍

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●   New York Times  5-24-2020:  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.   National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan... ◦

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●   美國之音 Voice of America, 6-4-2020:  Retired Admiral Sandy Winnefeld ( 5-28-2020 ): 尽管美中军力失衡还没有达到危险的程度，但这一趋势的发展轨迹对我们不利;  美国前海军部副次长克罗普西(Seth Cropsey): “美国继续是太平洋地区的主导力量，但这能持续多久呢？”美国国会研究处5月21日公布的最新版中国海军现代化报告得出的结论说，如果现在与美军全面开战，解放军会输。

  ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

●   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020:  Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure. (時間不再對中國有利)

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●   澳洲 The Australian, 5-18-2020, 英國 The Times: In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon. (美國五角大廈模擬, '30 美軍阻止解放軍侵台, 將會陷入苦戰)

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●   美國 CBS news 11-14-2018:  U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
          (美國若為台灣與解放軍作戰、很可能陷入苦戰  ―  險勝或遭擊敗)

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  美軍或聯軍 會參戰嗎?

●   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

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●   Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: Bolton alleges Trump belittled US obligations to Taiwan 川普常輕視美國對台灣的承諾 
　

●   美國 New York Times, 7-2-2020: 川普總統對台灣的個人承諾已引起懷疑，尤其是當他試圖與中國達成貿易協議時 ... “If Taiwan fights against the Chinese Communist Party, the United States won’t come to rescue us,” 國民黨立委抱怨台灣如果與中共作戰 ，美國不會來營救我們   As always, Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support. The United States is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself, 一如既往，台灣的國防又成了美國支不支持的問題。美國承諾會幫助台灣自衛。

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●   Washington Post , 7-6-2020 : U.S. law requires that the U.S. government provide for Taiwan’s defense but stops short of requiring that American soldiers die for Taiwan. 美國法律要求美國政府為台灣提供防禦，但沒要美國士兵為台灣犧牲。

●   The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 :  美國出售台灣武器，但不提供安全保證 ... 《台灣關係法》，要求美國讓台灣保持自衛能力。
●   美國 The Hill  ,  6-16-2020:  ASL (《反分裂国家法》) 是中国對美國TRA（ 《台灣關係法》）的回應。至於 TDA  (《台灣防衛法》ps: 尚未通過) may be seen as adding little to the TRA’s call for contingency planning, it highlights the intimate and sometimes conflictual relationship between capabilities and intentions.   ( https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan )

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●   chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018 報導美國教授意見 ( Missouri State University  professor D. Hickey's comment ) :  美國並沒有鐵板釘釘的保證一定出兵保衛台灣 (the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan).  
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●   澳洲智庫 The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : 美國將台湾當成挫败北京的工具，會危害台灣的安全。中国已經有很多人懷疑，美國近年一逕鼓動台湾獨立，風险是，美國政策鼓勵中国做出過激反應、破壞现状，最後的結果是美國放棄台湾。  Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the United States intends to promote Taiwan independence, and this paranoia has only risen in recent years. The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.

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●  英國 Economist 5-28-2020:  a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked.  美國法律暗示，如台灣遭到攻擊， 蠻可能向台灣提供幫助。......  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly. 美國應明確指出，攻台將極其危險。https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify
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●   美國 The bulwark 6-24-2020: 許多美國人想轉而承認台灣不構成美國的重要利益，越來越多的人希望將“一個中國”政策正式化。對美國安全的主要危險不在中國的野心，而在環太平洋美國盟友的安全保證。今天的美國人也不想為台北而死，但是，危險在於美國放棄台灣將傳達出什麼給全世界。In sum, the best way to ensure no one will die for Taiwan is to evince a willingness to die for it.   (brief)

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●  紐約時報 (New York times),  11-4-2017: 美國的支持，已經被中國的軍事現代化「削弱或消除了」。美國海軍戰爭學院(Naval War College) Andrew S. Erickson說：「台灣需要認識到，它的防務最終還是要看自己。」

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●  National Interest, 5-31-2020 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-taiwan-needs-nuclear-weapons-159261
     if Taiwan was gifted medium-range nuclear weapons which were placed under its control, it would both acquire a sufficient deterrent in order to maintain stability if not peace across the Taiwan Strait and absolve the United States of the need to deploy multiple carrier groups to the region should communist China attack 美國專家評論連航空母艦群也不想派，而討論讓台灣以中程核武自保  (ps: 台灣擁核原是中共動武條件之一)

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●   中国 South China Morning Post, 7-7-2020: If Taiwan declares independence, it is almost certain that China will go to war. However, it is far from certain that the United States will be willing to shed American blood to defend a faraway island in Asia.  如果台灣宣布獨立，幾乎可以肯定中國會發動戰爭。但是，美國是否願意為捍衛亞洲遙遠的島嶼而流血，這還不是很確定

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●   蘋果日報 6-6-2020 editorial: 在香港版「國安法」問題上，美被視為雷聲大雨點小。英、澳、加共同批評中國，但澳洲、 歐盟說不會因此事制裁中國。

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●  Chicago Global Affairs Council

        "Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?"  美國民意支持出兵嗎?

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●  New York Post,  5-26-2020:   (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.

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●  Taiwan News 6-1-2020:  美國被迫參與戰役 引起全球災難 the U.S. would then be forced to join the battle once Beijing's troops cross the Taiwan Strait, leading to catastrophic global warfare ...  / Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison

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●   The Hill 6-16-2020: 在1995年中国向台灣發射導弹的两次事件之間，中国軍方直接向美助理國防部 長约瑟夫·奈(Assistant Defense Secretary Joseph Nye)问：如果中国進攻台湾，美國會怎麼做？奈回應：“我们不知道，你也不知道；这要视情况而定  (“We don’t know and you don’t know; it would depend on the circumstances.”)  https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan

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●   聯合報  6-19-2020:  2018年九月，資深的知名白宮記者伍華德出書，提及在討論南韓的國安會議中，川普質疑美國在朝鮮半島維持大量軍力，究竟得到什麼？他接著問：「告訴我，我們花錢保護台灣，能得到什麼？」... /

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●   蘋果日報 6-17-2020 editorial: 中國中央電視台紀錄片 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGypbE_r0NE etc): 民國47年8月23日 八二三砲戰 ，美軍曾護航台灣軍艦運補金門，但共軍一砲擊，美艦立刻撤退，足見美國的保護承諾不可恃◦  但反過來看 ...... (brief)    PS: 當年台灣與美國有正式外交關係

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●  The National Interest, 7-6-2020:  Washington will not automatically honor its informal security commitment to Taiwan. Like Britain at the outset of World War II, Taiwan must show itself to be a worthy and affordable cause. For its part, Beijing will try to depreciate Taiwan’s value to Americans ... Will it be easy to defend Taiwan? No.   華盛頓不會自動履行對台灣的非正式安全承諾，就像二戰爆發時的英國一樣 ...... 嘗試偉大的壯舉“不是因為它們很容易，而是因為它們很難。”

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●   Bloomberg 6-24-2020: Even absent a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, the United States can telegraph that commitment by making the choices required to ensure it can defend Taiwan successfully.

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●   Taiwan News, 7-2-2020:  Bolton: the outside world still generally sees a Biden presidency as less favorable for Taiwan.

Trump’s behavior shows that he only cares about re-election and that Trump will continue to take a hard stance on Beijing during these last four months before the election, but the problem is that if Trump is elected on November 3, no one knows what he will do on November 4.  波頓研判美國總統未來友台或親中? 因為家人與大陸的關係，拜登會較偏向中國， 至於川普， 他只關心連任， 在11-3前會對中國強硬， 但11-4後就沒人知道會怎麼樣，波頓認為他會打電話給習談交易

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●  National Interest Organization,  3-5-2019   https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

        In the 2017 TNSS polls survey, most (43.4 percent) thought America will not support Taiwan, while 40.5 percent believed America will commit troops to a conflict. In 2019, however, the number believing Washington will provide troops jumped to 48.5 percent, while the number who think it will not fell to 35.3 percent. If an attack is unprovoked, the percentage of Taiwanese who believe the United States will intervene soars to 60 percent.

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