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Taiwan military ( China - Taiwan war )
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Taiwanese military ■
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will China strike on
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◆ Latest news: ◆ Guardian , 2-21-2021:Xi is forced to bargain with internal party figures to seek a third term...Taiwan is probably the best tool to do that... China is probably a decade or a bit longer from building up sufficient capabilities to feel it can confidently do so (military takeover of Taiwan )... Kinmen will fall early ◆ Economist , 2-20-2021: In reality America’s ability to deter an invasion over Taiwan is crumbling... the hardest part of deterring China involves building robust coalitions that are ready to challenge Chinese aggression...If China ever believes it can complete the task at a bearable cost, it will act ◆ New York Times, 2-12-2021: Analysts warned : Beijing may resort to war if the Kuomintang is unable to reclaim power or if the Communist Party feels it no longer has a dialogue partner on the island ◆ Guardian, 2-9-2021: the Taiwan Strait could become a flashpoint ..the pivotal reason peace had endured for 70 years had disappeared, ... ◆ Australian, 2-8-2021: China to take over Taiwan using "all means short of war" as early as 2024 ◆ Financial Times, 2-9-2021: Taiwan on alert after subtle shifts in tone from Biden administration ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2-1-2021: Taiwan Defense: A Hard Problem for the U.S. / American carrier battle groups within hundreds of miles of the Chinese coast would have difficulty surviving a coordinated attack by many hundreds of Chinese missiles...Will the extremely war-weary American public stand by for this unnecessary slaughter? ◆ NY Times, 1-30-2021: a war with China probably won’t happen. Yet if it does, it might begin in Pratas or Kinmen... it is a considerably greater risk than it had been for decades ◆ Washington Post, 1-28-2021: Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a U.S.-China Clash ◆ SCMP, 2-2-2021: Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Most US opinion leaders back military defence of Taiwan if China invades, But intervention is opposed by the majority of the American public, though support has increased in recent years ◆ Reuters, FoxNews, 1-28-2021: China warns Taiwan independence ‘means war’ ◆ Nikkei (Japan), 1-28-2021: White House spokeswoman : the Biden administration will maintain its predecessor's tough line toward China for the time being ... Taiwan makes up one of its fronts ◆ FoxNews, 1-27-2021:Unlike Trump in 2017, China is 'not afraid of Biden' ◆ NY Times, 1-24-2021: China sent warplanes into the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, a show of force to the Biden administration that signals Beijing’s plans to maintain pressure on Taiwan even as it calls for a reset with the US ◆ Wall Street Journal, 1-24-2021: China sent strategic bombers, jet fighters and a turboprop near Taiwan, a likely warning to the new administration over its support for the island ◆
◆ ◆ Global Times (China), 1-25-2021: the juxtaposition of the three China-US joint communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act and the six assurances mentioned in the US statement this time differs from the Trump administration's refusal to mention the three joint communiqués in his later period...Only with the one-China principle in place can the Taiwan Straits avoid miscalculation ◆ Washington Examiner, 1-24-2021: The United States does not recognize Taiwan as an sovereign country, but U.S. strategists regard the island as a crucial link in a chain of islands that restrains the Chinese Communist military’s ability to threaten U.S. forces ◆ Washington Post, AP , 1-24-2021: We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives ◆ Foreign Policy, 1-22-2021: Taiwan seeks assurances from Biden admin., but Biden and his team are likely to resist using Taiwan as a cudgel against China the way Trump did ◆ Reuters, 1-20-2021: Blinken : would uphold its commitment to ensure that self-ruled Taiwan has the ability to defend itself ◆ New Zealand Herald, 1-14-2021: A US national security document stamped "SECRET" has been declassified : the superpower would defend Taiwan against an attack from China ◆ WSJ, 1-11-2021:China has launched one of the greatest military buildups in the history of the world across the straits from Taiwan. Coupled with the artificial islands and military buildup in the South China Sea, it’s clear Beijing has been systematically seeking to create the conditions for a successful invasion of Taiwan. This is anything but a secret; the gradual decline of America’s ability to forestall an invasion of Taiwan is well understood by governments around the Pacific. Chn-TW war news cyber-links ◆
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◆ ◆ Reuters,11-12-2020:WHO says faces 'onslaught' of cyberattacks as Taiwan complains of censorship ◆ Express UK,11-10-2020: Due to Mr Biden’s less-severe tone on China in the lead up to the election, and has no specific policy for deepening ties with Taiwan, Taiwan officials fear a Biden administration would be more conciliatory towards Beijing at the expense of Taiwan ◆ Reuters,11-9-2020: Taiwan lawmakers described Biden as “China-friendly”, and others pointing to Biden’s opposition to a bill to strengthen Taiwan’s security in 1999 ◆ News Australia,11-7-2020: 'War will come’ warns Beijing after Taiwan stocks up on US-made missiles ◆ Newsweek,11-4-2020: Taiwan Would Last 'Only Two Weeks' in War With China, Says Ex-Navy Commander ◆ Japan Sankei Shimbun ( 產經新聞),10-29-2020:Japan's DM 岸信夫: Given military imbalance of both sides, anything can happen, Taiwan must be very cautious ◆ Yomiuri (Japan 読売新聞), 10-30-2020: Japan will hold military drill the largest ever since 35 years ago to avoid engaging in a possible China-Taiwan war ("14万人演習…陸自「台湾有事」波及を警戒") ◆ NewsWeek, 10-28-2020: As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll ◆ Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island. With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. ◆ Financial Times, 10-19-2020: Mr Xi has already demonstrated that he is willing to take military risks and repressive actions that antagonise the west and scare China’s neighbours. Political turmoil in Washington (ps: US election) may open a window of opportunity for Beijing ◆ Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT: whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it ◆ Washington Post, 10-15-2020: Would the US protect Taiwan from China? Taiwan's new envoy hopes for 'clarity.' ... “I have not considered at all the possibility of too much support for Taiwan,” ◆ VOA, 10-17-2020: Taiwan Should Prepare to deter Chinese any sort of amphibious invasion or even a gray zone operation ( isolating the island economically, coercive and provocative actions short of the use of military force) ◆ WSJ,10-13-2020: continued ambiguity in the face of Xi's escalating rhetoric and provocative movements by his armed forces in the Taiwan Strait presents the greater risk of a confrontation as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis ◆ VOA,10-15-2020: Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts, expand its military reserve, to Counter China ◆ Forbes,10-26-2020:To Thwart Invasion, Taiwan Points Powerful New Missiles At Chinese Bases news cyber-links ◆
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Taiwan military vs. China military |
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personnel ( soldiers, officials ) |
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Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell.
US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal
assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system. ◆ armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers ◆ few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled / Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/ ◆ Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... / New York times, 5-18-2017 ◆ The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000. / Wikipedia, May 2020 ◆ Taiwan began to phase out mandatory conscription for all young men, which was deeply unpopular, in favor of an all-volunteer force; 4 months of compulsory service ... training is "insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat (RAND, '17) / New York times, 8-30-2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/world/asia/taiwan-china-military.html
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Only 310 thousands out of 770 thousands of qualified reservists
were called up for short-term military training, from 2015 to 2017, 61
thousands of those escaped the duty /
Formosa TV news, 8-3-2018, storm.mg 10-15-2019 ◆ Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men. / Hong Kong Free Press 7-15-2020 ◆ Reserve force is short of both officers and sergeants, their speciality far match the position / United Daily, 10-2-2020
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strategy |
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To against the threats of cyber warfare,
cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we
( Taiwan
) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity
development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and
non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” /
Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020 ◆ so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only at surface-level / United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020 (ps: the US should work with Taiwan to develop asymmetric military capabilities / Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020 ) ◆ a weirdo strategy: Facing PLA's attacks, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels, warships leave Taiwan, once the US military comes to Taiwan's rescue, they will return and join the war / Apple Daily, 8-14-2020 tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/ |
firepower |
◆
France forced Taiwan to withdraw its
request to upgrade 20-year-old Mirage fighters ... F-16 A/B and
F-CK-1 fighters are growing tired; 60 or 70 new fighters and a few
missiles won’t really change the balance of power. And heavy tanks –
especially if they lack trained crews – won’t do much to stop a Chinese
invasion / Forbes,
8-30-2020 ◆ A whole lot of Taiwan’s weapons don’t work. / Forbes, 9-4-2020 forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/04/which-of-taiwans-old-weapons-still-work/#340d2ee156a2 ◆ only 30% of Taiwan's tanks are in running condition with functional weapons. / Business Insider, 10-9-2020 ◆ China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ... Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out. / Economist,10-9-2020 ◆ the PLA could, without invading, destroy Taiwanese military, power and telecom facilities, embargo oil imports, cut cyber connectivity, then take advantage of the psychological impact on Taiwan to press for negotiations / Politico,10-8-2020 ◆ Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan. / Forbes, 6-3-2020
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China has
nuclear bomb ,Neutron
bomb,
hydrogen bomb, Taiwan has none of those. /
Next
TV news, 5-8-2020 |
military logistics system |
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The logistics inside the military
remain so abysmal ...
The army likely has no clue how
many tanks or guns actually mission-capable ... /
Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020
◆ only 30% of Taiwan's tanks are in running condition with functional weapons. The outdated hardware stands in stark contrast to China's massive and increasingly modern force / Business Insider, 10-9-2020 ◆ Taiwan lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments / United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion, 5- 7- 2020 |
morale |
◆
NY Times, 11-24-2020 says
Taiwan's famous politician screams for help: “Taiwan can’t face the might of
China alone", ”We
can’t fight China on our own".
in spite of Economist, NY Times, and pro-Taiwan senator advised Taiwan
not to rely on
the US to intervene ... ◆ “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue / Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020 https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/ ◆ Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky / Economist,10-9-2020
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Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning
Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in
a state of low morale... /
New York times, 5-18-2017
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combat experience |
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Taiwan’s army has trouble
with training across the board. Many insiders
are accordingly
pessimistic about
its ability to
hold out.
/ Economist,10-9-2020
◆ The military combines 4 drills to one per year for battle and propaganda-show, affecting training effect , high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission. / ref to China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv 蘭寧利》; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv |
discipline |
◆ The practice of judicial system has proved not as good as military criminal code to educate and train the military discipline. A soldier's 洪仲丘 'torture to death" sparks massive protest around 2013, the military court was hence no longer to judge the troops . / The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial |
budget |
◆
High personnel expense pushes aside the
logistics and maintenance budget, the govt. needs to plan
special budge to purchase arms. / The China Times, 7-17-2020,
editorial ◆ Taiwan would increase Taiwan’s defense budget by 10 percent, on top of a 5 percent increase the year before. That would raise military spending to more than 2 percent of gross domestic product / New York times, 8-30-2020 |
ps |
VICE, 7-24-2020: With increasing
Chinese modernization, Taiwan’s advantages decline — and the numbers
are telling.
To Taiwan’s 140,000 ground troops,
China has 1 million. To Taiwan’s 23 Coast Guard ships, China has
248. Taiwan has no bombers, while China has 450. While Taiwan has
350 fighter jets, China has 1,500.
All in all, China’s defense budget is
17 times the size of Taiwan’s, with much of the former spent on
developing the capability of unifying Taiwan with the mainland by
force. The capability to do harm and the intention to do
harm. China has both.
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聯合報,
10-22-2020
嚴德發:若總統下動員令 第一時間作戰主力45萬人
國軍後備改革,有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示,若總統動員令一下,約26萬名後備軍人就要報到,加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員,約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力
https://udn.com/news |
募兵
徵兵 |
◆
Taiwan's military reform
(10-22-2020)
:
active force
185 thousands +
reservists
260
thousands
(call-up training 14 days per year )
―
enough ?
https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770
■
Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan
is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the
readiness and training of its troops, particularly its
army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the
reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and
guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if
fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s
responsibility,” expert says
www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hongkong-taiwan-military/
Financial
Times (UK, 10-1-2020)
reported the number of
Chinese military personnel is about 2m, Taiwanese
military is only 163,000.
Guardian UK (6-27-2020)
、Financial
Times UK
(10-6-2020、10-19-2020)
reported
that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been
estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers
or
about 50% of total PLA
strength
(
Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to
616 millions
)
◆ Combat skills and will-power Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’. But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan. Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky... Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers .
◆ SOL: Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible ―― Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.
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Core problem
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◆ "a dog under control" / Eurasian Times 7-9-2020: The Tsai authority ... turns to Washington and is willing to be used. Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US. ◆ "a card to play" / Foreign Policy, 1-13-2021 "Taiwan Needs Real Allies, Not Opportunists, Not Partisans " : ... That confirmed the suspicion of many Taiwan analysts that this administration views the island primarily as a card to play against the People’s Republic of China and as a convenient foil to it—or the “free China” per Pompeo’s press release. ◆ "meat on chopping blocks" / New York Times , 9-18-2020: Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States,... Many people are saying that Taiwan has become the meat on others’ chopping blocks” ◆ "human bomb" / Global Times, 9-8-2020: US sets Taiwan up as a 'human bomb' ( drive the little to poke the big ) ◆ "a rat" / Le Monde diplomatique of France, '16: Taiwan, a trembling sweating rat, doing nothing to approaching huge cat (China), but turning around and lifting high a banner "$O$" . ◆ “a ticking time bomb" / Brookings, 12-14-2020: Taiwan should follow suit and take a pragmatic approach, and avoid becoming what Graham Allision described as “a ticking time bomb" that could lead to a tragic conflict ◆ "food on the menu" / SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, Taiwan has long been on the menu." ◆ "a bargaining chip" / Forbes, 10-5-2020: It would be a mistake for the U.S. to pursue an FTA as part of its China policy or to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, and Taiwan has reasons to be wary as well.
◆
"
a tradable pawn",
"a
useful chess piece" / Global Times, 8-23-2020:
Taiwan is a useful chess piece for the US
only because of the US strategy to suppress the Chinese mainland. On the
one hand, Washington exploits the Taiwan question to contain China, on
the other hand it is inciting tensions and making money by selling arms
to Taiwan...Taiwan is a tradable pawn. Taiwan for the US is only a
tradable chess piece, but for the mainland, reunification of the
mainland and Taiwan is priceless. ◆ "dispensable irritant" / Asia Times, 11-16-2020; Washington Post 1-18-2019: Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Could Taiwan be next ? WP, 7-14-2020: Trump's policies are undermining the security of Taiwan's democracy ...
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The People’s Daily, 10-15-2020 , Global Times, 10-15-2020: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you" (「勿謂言之不預」)... |
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台灣 壹電視 壹新聞, 10-17-2020
The People’s Daily《告台灣情治部門書》full
text : http://js.people.com.cn/BIG5/n2/2020/1015/c359574-34350271.html; |
●
Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece《人民日報》),
carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps:
Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action
against other countries in the past
●
Washington Post (7-22-2020) :
In
2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to
the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. Soon
later PLA's warplanes
crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire
line")
first time ever since
1949, according to Newsweek 8-12-2020, and the PRC deliberately
ratcheted up tensions till now.
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PS: The commentary also criticizes Taiwan intelligence's "green terror" and monitoring the public, which is good for Taiwanese people PS2: Global Times,
12-5-2020: there are eight obstacles in
the way of achieving peaceful reunification which are legislature,
education, elections, rising populism, US-led anti-China sentiment,
conflict of interests business, culture conflicts and passive attitude
of political parties.
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◆
Military
Review ― Sept. ~ Oct. , 2020 /
USArmy
University Press
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brief |
Military Review paints a picture ― China's PLA will attack south-west coast of Taiwan, and land weaker-defense area - eastern Taiwan, southern Taiwan
◆ Why Would China Not Invade Taiwan Now? / Tim Willasey-Wilsey
◆ Time Horizons Drive Potential Taiwan Cross-Strait Conflict / David An a state will act based on its intentions, capabilities, and opportunities, time horizons。 converging time horizons drive China to be more aggressive toward Taiwan, shortening the timeline for unification, while at the same time driving the United States to be more willing to stand up to China’s aggression
◆ Deterring the Dragon Returning U.S. Forces to Taiwan / https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Mills-Deterring-Dragon/ If the United States wants to maintain credible conventional deterrence against a PLA attack on Taiwan, it needs to consider basing troops in Taiwan. Ground forces based in Taiwan would not only be important for repelling a PLA invasion, but more importantly, they would act like what RAND calls a “tripwire”; that is, “smaller numbers of ground forces stationed to ensure that U.S. forces quickly become directly involved in a potential adversary invasion.”53 A small force would be economical and minimally antagonistic toward mainland China especially if it was only a rotational force.
◆ Drive Them into the Sea https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Dunn-Drive-Into-Sea/
Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military operations. Success depends upon air and maritime superiority, the rapid buildup and sustainment of supplies onshore, and uninterrupted support. An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention. These stresses, combined with China’s combat force attrition and the complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency, even assuming a successful landing and breakout, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk. what does America do when its forces arrive? Arriving in time to enforce a cease-fire is simply a means to delay losing. Just the credible threat of a U.S. Army corps capable of being deployed to Taiwan might deter China from starting an invasion; China might no longer be confident that the main effort will remain one between the PLA and the Taiwanese ground forces. And if deterrence fails, the corps will drive the enemy into the sea
◆ New Opportunities amid Increasing Threats https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Setzekorn-Taiwan-US-Army/
Due to the PLA downsizing and streamlining into a force of roughly 1.3 million ground force personnel, not all of whom can be deployed, Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity
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US Naval Institute,
Proceedings, 2020-August ;
Forbes, 8-24-2020 https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was |
|
brief |
◆(1) The 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making. The PBSC decided in mid-December (2020) to place in motion Operation Red Province — to bring Taiwan back into China. ◆(2) Non-government voices on Taiwan, orchestrated as a deception operation by Chinese intelligence services, now called for full independence, creating a predicate for Beijing to move on its legal claim. The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions and then commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January. ◆(3) Two days before U.S. presidential inauguration, a message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion... China’s own “little green men” — emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities. A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid. ◆(4) PLA seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus. Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships. An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced. ◆(5) China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” sent messages: “Don’t join in any international rebuke of China or suffer the consequences of reduced Chinese trade and investment.” Stock markets across the globe crashed on 19 January. ◆(6) the National Security Advisor said, “This is not about whether we stand behind Taiwan—we do—but it looks like we may have been outmaneuvered. I don’t like it,"
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China-Taiwan
War/Tension : https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL3N2GI0KE
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brief |
WHY IS TENSION RISING NOW?
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
1) Taiwan and China do not
have an official dialogue mechanism, which could quickly spiral out of control.
HOW DO THE ARMED FORCES OF THE TWO SIDES COMPARE? Taiwan’s military is dwarfed by China’s People’s Liberation Army
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN A WAR BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA? missiles and air attacks, cyberattacks , naval blockade to force surrender
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The Scary War Game
Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again
and Again 8-17-2020
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1) Taiwan Defense Act
―
questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon,
which have received scant notice in the mainstream press. 2) The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over. |
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Chn. attacks Taiwan |
◆(1) China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation” ◆(2) A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ; China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan. ◆(3) American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles. Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets. ◆(4) American submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships, but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy ◆(5) Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) ― would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops ◆(6) The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports. Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element. ◆(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.
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US defends Taiwan |
◆(1) The
key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a
large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait. American
long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600
miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking
about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours” ◆(3) If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”
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PS |
1 ) an array of economic,
diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and
actions.
2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan. |
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The Diplomat , 9-13-2020 |
|
brief |
◆ The most likely course of action is increased political warfare against the Taiwan democratic system. Previously, influence operations designed to persuade, with a focus on developing Taiwanese businessmen in China into a CCP-friendly constituency. While the overall emphasis has shifted to destructive subversion. infiltrating ― local civic organizations, the media, and the military, to create paralysis and unrest to justify, and then assist with, an invasion. ◆ The most dangerous course of action ― an invasion, achieving a fait accompli of securing Taiwan capitulation prior to U.S. intervention. To achieve this, the first is an extension of political warfare techniques into the kinetic realm: system destruction warfare, meant to paralyze the opponent’s leadership, the second is the integration of AI and algorithms into operations. “Intelligent operations,” with an “algorithm game” to “quickly and accurately predict the situation on the battlefield” and seize the initiative. |
●
If China invades Taiwan ... |
|
◆ FoxNews, Newsweek, 9-22-2020 |
In an interview with Fox News on Monday,
Trump too talked tough on the
flashpoint, but declined to specify how
he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan
Strait "They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems." |
◆
FoxNews, 8-23-2020,
Q: 1)
it seems to
be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects
that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors." |
Trump : 1) They're coming to this country. 2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,” “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this" "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it" It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing
|
◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020 |
Pompeo: this is obviously
a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We
have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that
we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and
commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United
States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is
wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and
the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of
understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that
we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/ Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources |
◆
FoxNews, 6-1-2020
QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? |
SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story.
Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the
commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the
Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news
is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We
have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.
https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/ |
◆
washingtonexaminer,
10-7-2020 in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene |
SECRETARY POMPEO:
“if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response
at first but warmed to a deterrent theme. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan
◆ Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020: Pompeo: U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china |
●
|
◆ NewsWeek, 7-21-2020:
Once military conflict breaks out - A slight plurality of 31 percent assigned blame to Chinese President Xi Jinping, while 30 percent of respondents said they believed both Xi and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen were responsible and 24 percent blamed Tsai.
◆
Eurasian Times
The Tsai authority knows that Taiwan cannot compete with the mainland on its own, and therefore turns to Washington and is willing to
be used. Of The US. |
● Reuters, Japan Times, 9-8-2020: Eyeing China, Taiwan urges alliance against 'aggressive actions'
●
NHK Japan,
7-20-2020:Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has warned that the island
will face intensifying pressure from China.
●
Washington Post 7-22-2020:
the Taiwanese fm : urging "extreme caution" in the island's dealings with a Chinese
●
Daily
Mail, 7-22-2020: Foreign Minister Wu: 'The
threat is on the rise' !!
● CNN 2-19-2020 exclusive interview with Taiwanese president Tsai I. W. : "What we are expecting is, after withstanding the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" ....
"Taiwan as an underdog facing down the
growing might of Beijing" ...
|
|
●
CNN 9-17-2020 interviews with Taiwan FM : Taiwan is trying to avoid being "the next Hong Kong" |
|
|
|
|
https://www.foxnews.com/world/will-taiwan-become-the-next-hong-kong China military show of force near Taiwan has experts asking if island could be the 'next Hong Kong'
pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 8-2-2020 ( upper items are ads. )
◆ pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on US Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 7-26-2020, 6-28-2020, 6-3-2020, 5-30-2020
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (TW), 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 7-26-2020, 5-20-2020
◆ pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" (Chinese version"台灣軍隊") on Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-8-2020, 6-2-2020 ps: TTV 7-3-2020: a marine amphibious landing craft (similar to pic. above) was overturned in an exercise
|
●
●
Taiwanese military
VS. communist China's military
[ People's Liberation Army ]
◆
Forbes, 1-29-2021:
Desperate To Avoid a Bloody Beach-Assault, Chinese Troops Could
Try Sneaking Into Taiwan (
in large container ships flying third-country flags to moor in
southern Taiwan and northern Taiwan ... and perhaps that day’s
‘commercial’ flights ) forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/29/desperate-to-avoid-a-bloody-beach-assault-chinese-troops-could-try-sneaking-into-taiwan/?sh=4ffe58ed5ac9
◆ Forbes, 1-28-2021: China’s Future Stealth Bombers Could Clear A Path Through Taiwan’s Defenses forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/28/chinas-stealth-bombers-could-clear-a-path-through-taiwans-defenses/?sh=12c1363c4a06
◆ Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), 1-29-2021: ‘It’s a red line’: Taiwan defence chair urges Australia to act over China war threats
China's Military Power Report / annual Report to US Congress (2020)
Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2020
US Department of Defense 2020 report, 9-1-2020 / Chinese military VS. Taiwanese military the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor
|
|
contrast |
pic. left : Ground Forces - Taiwan vs. China ; pic. right : Naval Forces - Taiwan vs. China
Forbes 9-2-2020 fig.: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/09/02/the-military-imbalance-in-the-taiwan-strait-in-2020-infographic/#2aeed4fc4ca5 China has also made huge progress building amphibious assault ships and tank-landing vessels that would be essential in launching a successful invasion of Taiwan. the China Military Power Report estimates that China's warhead stockpile is now in the low 200s and that number is expected to double to at least 400-500 by 2030
pic. left : Air Forces - Taiwan vs. China ; pic. right : China's Rocket Forces
|
TW Defense |
TAIWAN’S DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES ◆(1) China’s multi-decademilitary modernization effort has eroded or negated many of the military advantages that Taiwan has historically enjoyed the context of a cross-Strait conflict. ◆(2) Taiwan is taking important steps to compensate for the growing disparities – building its war reserve stocks, growing its defense-industrial base, improving joint operations and crisis response capabilities,and strengthening its officer and noncommissioned officer corps – these improvements only partially address Taiwan’s declining defensive advantages. ◆(3) The modified strategy stresses enhanced asymmetric capabilities, as well as suggesting greater reliance on Taiwan’s Air Force and Navy. ◆(4) The transition (active duty forces to all-volunteer force ) has slowed due to severe difficulties recruiting volunteers. ◆(5) Taiwan has stated that it is working to develop new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare. Some specific areas of emphasis include offensive and defensive information & EW,high-speed stealth vessels ,shore-based mobile missiles rapid mining and minesweeping unmanned aerial systems and critical infrastructure protection.
|
Chn. attacks |
CHINA’S COURSES OF ACTION AGAINST
TAIWAN
These circumstances PLA would
use forces have included: ◆(1) China
could pursue a measured approach by signaling its readiness to use force or
conduct punitive actions against Taiwan. The PLA could also conduct a more
comprehensive campaign designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or
unification dialogue under China’s terms. ● Blockades ― kinetic blockades of maritime and air traffic, including a cut-off of Taiwan’s vital imports, to force Taiwan’s capitulation. Large-scale missile strikes and possible seizures of Taiwan’s offshore islands would accompany a Joint Blockade in an attempt to achieve a rapid Taiwan surrender, while at the same time, posturing air and naval forces to conduct weeks or months of blockade operations if necessary. China will also likely complement its air and maritime blockade operations with concurrent electronic warfare (EW), network attacks, and information operations (IO) to further isolate Taiwan’s authorities and populace and to control the international narrative of the conflict.
●
Limited Force or Coercive Options
―
a variety of
disruptive, punitive, or lethal military actions in a limited campaign against
Taiwan, probably in conjunction with overt and clandestine economic and
political activities supported by a variety of IO to shape perceptions or
undercut the effectiveness or legitimacy of the Taiwan authorities. Such a
campaign could include computer network or limited kinetic attacks against
Taiwan’s political, military, and economic infrastructure to induce fear in
Taiwan and degrade the Taiwan population’s confidence in their leaders. ◆ (4) The PRC appears willing to defer the use of military force as long as it considers that unification with Taiwan could be negotiated over the long-term and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits
|
PS |
◆
Forbes, 9-2-2020: the U.S. Defense
's annual guide to the Soviet military 1981 ~ 1991 is naked propaganda
chock full inaccurate or misleading data, unfair comparisons and outright lies,
the Pentagon’s propaganda campaign continues, its
China's Military Power Report
mostly portrays
China as a seemingly unbeatable martial monolith with limitless resources and
ambitions and few viable rivals, and ignores Taiwan’s missiles.
◆ Global Times, 9-2-2020: Chinese Defense Ministry: the Pentagon report is "full of zero-sum game and cold war mentality," and apart from stigmatizing China's national defense expenditure and nuclear policy, it's also creating tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, which is a terrible mistake, China expresses firm opposition to it. The report also said"China is already ahead of the United States in certain areas," such as "shipbuilding," "land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles," and "integrated air defense systems." it's an old trick to ask for a big budget, because when Congress learns that "China is doing better than the US, they will get nervous and pass the budget easily." https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1199731.shtml ◆ The Hill, 9-3-2020: Taiwan needs to take advantage of asymmetric defense options, using its natural urban and mountainous terrain to deter Chinese attack, and Small, mobile and lethal systems such as Stinger surface-to-air missiles, Javelin anti-tank missiles, naval mines, and unmanned underwater vehicles, in conjunction with Taiwan’s indigenous HF-3 https://thehill.com/opinion/international/514481-how-taiwan-with-us-assistance-can-deter-chinas-overt-aggression |
◆
● Forbes, 7-17-2020: the Taiwanese military plans to let the Chinese get close — then lob thousands of missiles at them. Taiwan's objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/17/if-china-invades-taiwan-could-target-shanghai-and-beijing-with-cruise-missiles/#438bd91230ff
●
● Bloomberg, 9-22-2020: Taiwan president Tsai does have one major problem: The Communist Party is threatening her life, with its Global Times newspaper saying over the weekend she would be “wiped out” in a war if she violated China’s anti-secession law. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/china-s-war-rhetoric-pushes-taiwan-to-boost-u-s-economic-ties
● The Hill, Hudson Org., 9-17-2020: an assault on Taiwan would not end in a quick victory. Taiwan’s armed forces draw from a robust reservist pool; it knows its territory far better than its adversary and will receive unimpeachable civilian support in a conflict. To win, China must occupy and subjugate the entire island — and an insurgency, based in Taiwan’s mountainous center, is to be expected. While this is a fight China considers winnable, it must bring to bear all its capabilities. China’s military is built to fight a short war, relying on long-range missiles and progressively layered defenses to isolate areas near the Chinese coastline. By raising the costs of American intervention, China seeks a political-military solution to its central strategic problem
● Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ... Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky. Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.
● Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island. With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.
● Bloomberg, 10-8-2020: Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril "
● Politico,10-8-2020: Taiwan’s not ready to defend itself...lack of defense capacity and their lack of depth...What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out”
● Financial Times (UK),10-6-2020: If Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers. China has a different playbook - coercion
● Hong Kong Apple Daily ( 《蘋果動新聞》), 10-9-2020 : China's PLA will attack Taiwan by Blitzkrieg or lightning war to seal off and cut off the transportation (communication) way between Taiwan and Japan to avoid Taiwan's high-ranking officials running away and foreign country coming to rescue ; The better landing place for PLA large force will not be narrow Tamsui River or west coast, instead, very likely weak-defense east coast such as 宜蘭(YiLan) . Once main force came, Taiwan is almost finished. https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20201009/3HGWOL27GJDTZGS7GGYLDOJB3A/ by 台灣國防安全研究院國防資源與產業研究所長蘇紫雲、中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所兼任助理教授林穎佑,以及澳門軍事評論員黃東
● Global Times , 10-9-2020: Taiwan’s military drills ‘a futile cover-up show’ against PLA operations. The PLA has overwhelming military advantages over the island in terms of combat readiness of the troops, the advanced level of technology for weapons and equipment, numbers, tactics and strategies https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202977.shtml
● Wall Street Journal 8-30-2020: Fearing Hong Kong’s Fate, Taiwan Moves to Bolster Its Military Against China
● Financial Times (UK), 10-1-2020 (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :
Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :
Chinese military superiority / key: |
contrast |
Chinese military | Taiwanese military | ||
100,000 | active personnel | personnel | 2m | 163,000 | |
50 | combat-capable fixed-wing aircraft | aircraft | 3,330 | 568 | |
5 | submarines | submarines | 59 | 4 | |
5 | surface vessels above corvette size | vessels | 107 | 26 | |
200 | main battle tanks | tanks | 5,850 | 665 | |
20 | surface-to-surface missiles | missiles | 603 | 12 |
●
Daily Express (UK) , 2-14-2021:
Total military
personnel 2,693,000 , Airpower 3,210, Tanks 3,500 ,
Aircraft Carriers 2 , Armoured vehicles 33,000 Destroyers 36 , Rocket projectors 2,650 , submarine 74 (ref to Global Fire Power Nov. 2020) ● Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020: The Taiwanese military is dwarfed by its Chinese counterpart – Taiwan has less than a fifth of China’s planes, a 10th of its armed forces personnel and just o.1% of its missiles. ● NIKKEI asia review (Japan) , 9-25-2020: Militarily, nuclear-armed China dwarfs Taiwan and has more than 10 times the budget and soldiers. It is reportedly negotiating with Taiwan a new $7 billion deal on seven major weapon systems, including sea mines, missiles and drones. ● aljazeera, 10-8-2020: China was engaged in a significant naval build-up probably not seen since Germany’s attempt to compete with Britain’s Royal Navy prior to WWI... to push US navy back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan”
|
● Forbes, 8-24-2020: China Can Capture Taiwan In Three Days, Say Former U.S. Officials
● Reuters, aljazeera, 9-22-2020: once Chinese aircraft were spotted Taiwanese fighters had just five minutes to scramble their fighters
www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/taiwan-tells-china-airspace-incursions-rise-200922055823777.html
● Express UK, 9-21-2020: Malcolm Davis, a former defence adviser, added the “probes” into Taiwan’s side of the line could be an effort to “provoke the Taiwanese air force to ‘shoot first’” which could justify further violence.
● Forbes, 9-21-2020: The air-launched SLAM-ER missiles and ground-launched Harpoon missiles arguably are the most important—and, to China, provocative—weapons in the current deal. “Taiwan is finally buying what it really needs to implement its asymmetric defense strategy,” Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University security expert, told The New York Times.
● East Asia Forum, Based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University
Taiwan’s security seems increasingly at risk. Taiwan’s real threat, however, is not in invasion but China’s mixture of sabre-rattling and integration-luring.
Though a conventional war may not be imminent, there are still unresolved vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s security. A recent debate on whether a PLA invasion could be curbed demonstrates how Taiwan’s partisan division extends to defence strategy disagreement. Efforts to boost Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities will stall if China successfully erodes Taiwan’s morale through soft strategies.
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/09/12/cross-strait-integration-by-force-or-favour/
● eurasian Times, 9-4-2020 : Forbes David Axe: the US's Chinese Military Power report missed the most important context by ignoring the extreme difficulty any army will have to face attempting an invasion of an island like Taiwan. Taiwan possesses a geographical advantage as the strait is stormy and the terrain between the likely landing zones and Taipei is rugged and mountainous. eurasian Times, 8-15-2020 :Taiwan’s New ‘Training Jets’ Are Capable Bombers That Can Strike Deep Into China
●
● Express UK, 9-11-2020: CHINA has conducted large-scale military exercises in an air defence zone controlled by Taiwan, leading ministers there to hold an emergency press conference. they were carried out on the Taiwanese side of what is known as the median line of the Taiwan Strait – an unofficial airspace boundary between Taiwan and China. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1334152/South-China-Sea-news-Taiwan-US-military-drills-peace-region-threat-world-war-3
● Bloomberg, 7-30-2020: ”Global Times (Chn): China wants peace but “is fully capable of destroying all of Taiwan’s military installations within a few hours, before seizing the island shortly after. ...researchers: While the People’s Liberation Army would seek to bombard the island with missiles and cyberattacks to quickly neutralize Taiwanese forces before they could fight back, the chances of pulling off such a comprehensive surprise assault are slim, ... Any failure to immediately knock out Taiwan’s forces, he wrote, would allow the island to repel an amphibious invasion or sustained bombing campaign...www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown
● Sunday Guardian (UK) 6-27-2020: Should China conquer Taiwan, that would free up about 50% of total PLA strength for potential deployment to the current Western Theater Command, facing India. "Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years": by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months. https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started
●
● Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.
●
● L.A. Times, 6-9-2020: The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster.
●
● Forbes, 6-7-2020: China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". ... (brief)
●
● Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities. PS: Taiwan's United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020: so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only skin-deep ...
●
● Forbes, 7-17-2020: the war could end quickly. Chinese rockets could pummel Taiwanese forces into submission... The worst-case scenario is that the invasion gets hung up on Taiwan’s fortified island of Penghu ... the war drags out for many bloody weeks.
● Apple Daily, editorial, 8-14-2020: Taiwan military takes a very weird strategy: Facing PLA's first wave strike, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels and caves, warships leave Taiwan, and await the US military comes to rescue, then they will return and join the war. The commentator questions how can those fighter jets take off if the runways are bombed by PLA's bomber and missiles ? tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/
ps: When studying in the US, I learnt from library that the highway can be served as war-time runway, so maybe those tunnels can be extended to highways nearby in case.
●
● Forbes, 7-10-2020: Failing to capture Penghu could, perhaps for a very long time, end Beijing’s reunification-by-force gambit
● Express UK, 9-14-2020: Beijing’s sabre-rattling over Taiwan is hardly new, but … we’ve seen a significant stepping up of Chinese military activity and an intense propaganda effort to isolate Taiwan and assert political primacy in the region.”a “pre-emptive effort to coerce Taiwan would be immensely risky for Xi, but leaders under pressure do risky things
● Forbes Advocate, 9-13-2020: China's military capabilities dwarf those of the island of 23 million in numerical terms, although any invasion of Taiwan would be complex and would carry major political risks https://www.forbesadvocate.com.au/story/6922776/china-says-us-poses-threat-to-world-peace/?cs=5461
● US News , 9-20-2020: China's air force on Saturday put out a video showing its nuclear capable H-6 bombers, which have been involved in many Chinese fly-bys of Taiwan, exercising. www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-20/taiwan-president-says-drills-show-china-is-threat-to-whole-region
●
Apple
Daily, editorial,
7-6-2020:
a marine amphibious landing craft of
Marine '99
army-brigade' ( main force of Taiwan military) was overturned in an exercise
recently, Taiwan military's training and combat capacity are suspicious if these
accidents happened repeatedly. China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion:
sudden
increasing pressure to
war preparedness
and
hasty work probably are main reasons resulting in many accidents
and incidents happened in recent years.
China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion: Due
to Taiwan president
making official inspection,
the
military combines 4 drills to one per year, and transforms Han Kuang Exercise to
be a big show, which damage military training , high percentage of
military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission.
www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv
; www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv
;
●
● China's Military Power Report / annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019
Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019
★
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"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ... aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019 that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan, China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue.
The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare". Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing. (see pic. right)
usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.
|
|
◆ Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization 4-28-2020 https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2
April 24, 2020
Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval
Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy
Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress.
◆ Chinese aircraft-carrier, 6-22-2020, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme
◆
China Military Power
report 2019
https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/China_Military_Power_FINAL_5MB_20190103.pdf
Core Chinese
Military Capabilities: Today’s PLA is still far
from being able to deploy large numbers of
conventional forces globally, but China has developed
nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities that
can reach potential adversaries across the globe.
|
||
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 11-14-2020, 5-20-2020
|
Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain
include H-6K
(轟 6K)
bomber from Shaanxi, center of China. Therefore, Taiwan's
interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their
coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as
annual report
above.
(brief
- author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school, National ChungCheng
University)
●
● New York times, 5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)
We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.
Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......
●
● New York times, 5-18-2017: For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States. Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue. Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals/
/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion ( ps: China's Baidu, 10-15-2017: Taiwanese reservists 3 million in total; Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.
●
|
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI "年代向 錢看"Next TV news, 5-8-2020
Daily Express, 9-1-2020:
nuclear weapons - Rus 6850,US 6550,France 300,Chn 280,UK 215,Pakistan
145, |
||||||||
pic. left: At 5-7-2020, Taiwan Intelligence chief replied a law-maker with phrase : Taiwan should pursue good fortune and avoid disaster once military conflict between China and the US occurring
in the western Pacific near
Taiwan, we won't get in the trouble water ...
●
Washington Post,
5-21-20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need
to expand China's nuclear
●the essence of China unification issue is " China confronting the US" pic right: both China and the US own nuclear bomb ,Neutron bomb, hydrogen bomb ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI ) |
|||||||||
pic: For Strategic deterrence,Taiwan needs 500 pieces of 雲峰飛彈 missiles |
|||||||||
●
South China
Morning Post, 7-11-2020: Missiles are a key element of
Taiwan’s defence strategy,
● Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons.
Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon.
“The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that
can survive an
●
Voice of America,
5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out
already
●
South China Morning Post
(https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric)
●
Liberty Times,
7-29-2020: The PLA can't defeat Taiwan military within 72 hours,
but it's hard to tell once more than about 5000 special agents /
sleepers in the shadow join the war.
/ 林保華 column writer
|
● The Drive, 9-22-2020: In peacetime, the presence of the Wan Chien missiles on Penghu is in keeping with Taiwan’s strategy of presenting Beijing with a credible deterrent, and should that deterrent fail, they would help defend against a PLA attack and possible invasion, ... www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36654/taiwan-displays-air-launched-cruise-missiles-at-air-base-in-heart-of-taiwan-strait
● Xinhua (China) 2020-09-21 : China will take legitimate countermeasures in response to recent visits of U.S. high-ranking officials to Taiwan, including measures targeting relevant individuals http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09/21/c_139385296.htm
●
Apple
Daily (蘋論),
editorial, 4-22-2020 :The 1st step for Taiwanese military reform is HONESTY
( 國軍改革 從誠實開始)
Taiwan navy under fire for letting
sailors infected with coronavirus into community (South China Morning
Post,
4-21-2020),
Taiwan will quarantine 700 sailors
after three came down with the coronavirus following a mission to a nearby
Pacific island. (New York Post, 4-18-20)
About Taiwan Navy's 'Friendly
Fleet''s story, no matter declassified or easy-to-master info. , Taiwan' s
military issued different versions within one day, even played a slapstick
show - slapping face each
other. The public strongly questioned their honesty. The
military failed to handle small risk like this, how can we trust their
ability to face a war. (brief)
●
UDN (聯合報社論)/十人一口罩
, editorial 4- 21- 2020: In average, Taiwanese
government allocated one face mask to ten soldiers before the infection
event, how to assure army's combat capability and basic quality ??
●
Apple
Daily (蘋論),
editorial, 5-1-2020 :Since taking enlisting-system,
Taiwan military always
failed to recruit enough number of
soldiers,
the quality of candidates to join the
military- school examinations is not as good as expected...
|
Obscurantisme in democratic Taiwan
―
'Psychological Warfare'
strategy of defense
Some Taiwan's popular media and
politicians spoke loudly about N.Y. Times (8-17-2020): "U.S. Tries to Bolster
Taiwan’s Status", but left out N.Y. Times (8-30-2020): "Taiwan cannot count on
US as a matter of strategy" or Economist (8-30-2020):
"The
island cannot rely on American help". Even Taiwan's former president Ma
was lashed out by lots of media and politicians for his opinion "US army won't
come to the island's rescue" . The authors (Retired vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, Admiral James Winnefeld Jr., ( 2011 to 2015),
CIA former director Michael
Morell ) and the US Naval Institute's Proceedings were sort of put down for similar reason ―
their article in
Proceedings (2020-August) predicts it's
'too late' for the US comes to rescue Taiwan after the war broke out.
Sept. 4, 2020
|
★ Han Kuang exercises, a major annual event for Taiwan armed forces
media |
analysis & comments (brief) |
|
UK
US |
NBC News,
7-17-2020 |
Although Taiwan's
military is well trained and equipped with mostly U.S.-made
hardware, China has huge numerical superiority.
。https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-conducts-major-annual-military-exercise-amid-rising-china-tensions-n1234023
|
Associated Press, Yahoo News, 7-16-2020 |
One helicopter
crashed when returning to base from another drill, killing the pilot
and co-pilot.
https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-holds-military-drills-against-053222062.html |
|
Reuters, 7-16-2020 |
F-16 and domestically made
Ching-kuo fighter jets launched strikes and tanks raced across inland
scrub, firing shells to destroy targets on the beach.
|
|
China |
Global Times,
7-16-2020, 7-21-2020 |
The military mishap during the Han Kuang drills indicates that Taiwan's most important war games are becoming increasingly unrealistic. It also shows a widening military gap across the Taiwan Straits.
The counter-landing
drill was designed to simulate PLA tactics, the exercise started
with Taiwan military's fighter jets attacking the landing fleet,
with a warship as support, after which artillery forces, attack
helicopters and tanks fired and eventually "effectively stopped the
hostile forces' landing operation," Taiwan media reported.
After watching the drill, military observers soon pointed out that its setting is nearly impossible, because it assumed Taiwan would automatically hold air superiority, Taiwan's weapons and equipment would remain intact prior to the counter-landing operation, and its troops would not suffer losses during the battle.
According to a
computer combat simulation published by the Chinese mainland's
Naval and Merchant Ships magazine in May, as well as many other
military analysts, a reunification-by-force operation by the PLA
will very likely start with intensive waves of missile and
rocket attacks that would neutralize most of Taiwan's air
defense capabilities, and PLA warplanes would then seize air
superiority and sweep enemies, with PLA warships, including two
aircraft carriers, also engaging in naval battles.
PLA landing
operations would take place after this first round of assault,
meaning that the scenario Taiwan military simulated will not
happen, because any weapons and troops they deployed in the
drills will be mostly destroyed before their counter-landing
operation,
Song Zhongping, a
military expert, said the exercises are a naive and meaningless
show, as they were set under ideal conditions.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194770.shtml; https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195064.shtml
|
●
|
●
●
China's strategy of attacking Taiwan |
|||
type | English | Chinese | |
1 | cyber warfare | PLA launchs cyber attacks, to penetrate CPU of Air Force Air Defense and Missile Command (Taipei), Republic of China Armed Forces Joint Operations Command Center (Taipei), etc. | 網路攻擊, 入侵中央控制電腦, 劍指防空指揮系統, 三軍衡山所等 |
2 | ‘unrestricted’ fire-power warfare | PLA Rocket Forcetroops bombing like heavy rains the entire Taiwan | 火箭軍彈雨轟台 |
3 | marine war | PLA aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines attack Eastern Taiwan and paralyze 佳山基地 ( main air force base ) | 航空母艦戰群, 核潛艇, 進攻台灣東部, 癱瘓佳山基地 |
4 | economic warfare | Cutting off marine traffic to Southern China sea, etc | 截斷海上交通線 |
5 | invasion of remote islands | Invasion of Kinmen(金門), Pratas, Itu Aba Island / Taiping Island (太平島) | 攻奪外島 |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIrQ2krhTE Next TV, 5-26-2020 |
|||
The SUN, UK,
5-25-2020
(https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11703654/china-deploys-aircraft-carriers-stoke-tensions-us-warning-new-cold-war/)
in the China's
state-controlled Naval and Merchant Ships Magazine:
In around four minutes, Taiwan’s air
power is badly damaged and those Taiwanese aircraft that have already taken
off, will be shot down with S400 missiles.
"After nearly two hours … all
anti-air defence bases are destroyed, and most of Taiwan’s warplanes are
damaged. What’s awaiting them is the second round of attacks after
dawn."
|
●
●
United States think tank the RAND Corporation,
Taiwan
News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018,
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
Likelihood of successful
Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp. China's jets
and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases
According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...
●
●
◆
Formosa TV, 2-25-2019: Taipei mayor Ko:
some American said Taiwan can
only resist PLA for 2 days.
◆ CTV evening
news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary:
we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week. ps:
The time for Taiwan to
resist
Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is
shorter and shorter.
◆
Global Times, Mar 2018: Former Chinese military top official said
PLA can
beat Taiwan within 100 hours.
●
● Global FirePower, 2020 : Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2. Russia 3. Chn 4. India 5. Japan 6. S Korea 16. Indonesia 17. Saudi Arabia 19. Australia 22. Vietnam 23. Thai 25. N korea 26. TW 35. Myanmar 44. Malaysia 45. UAE 46. Banladesh 48. Philippines 51. Singapore ). In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18. However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan; Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc.
● New York times, 5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)
We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.
Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......
●
Will China strike on Taiwan
?
●
◆ Telegragh, 1-29-2021: Do not underestimate the importance of sovereignty to the regime in Beijing. Taiwan has a right to declare independence but it is sensible to actually implement it at the risk of a devastating war. | |
◆ US News, 1-29-2021: China Escalates War Rhetoric Over Taiwan: Do Not Test Our Determination | |
◆ Reuters, Independent, BBC, FoxNews, NY Post, aljazeera, 1-28-2021: China warns Taiwan independence ‘means war’ | |
◆ Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity (~2022), experts fear | |
◆ New York Times,10-5-2020: China’s tone shifts toward fighting words, the torrent of bombast online and in state media in recent weeks is potentially ominous. The prospect of war remains remote, but the risk is that the propaganda could translate into more provocative actions. | |
◆ Bloomberg, 10-8-2020: Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,” “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay | |
◆ National Interest, 11-20-2020: Would China really invade Taiwan? Maybe ! But the costs would be nuts | |
◆ Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past | |
◆ The Hill, 10-25-2020: ...the looming possibility of a Taiwan Strait crisis. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will mark the 100th anniversary of its 1921 founding by striving to reunify with Taiwan. | |
◆ Washington Post, 10-26-2020: military exercises ..., aggressive moves... and jingoistic editorials in China's state-run press — have raised concerns in the West that Xi is readying China for a new war. The target in this case would be Taiwan | |
◆ Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT: whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it | |
◆ Politico, 10-8-2020: What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out,” | |
◆ Financial Times, 10-19-2020: There is no sign that an invasion force of this size (1m) is being assembled. | |
◆ BusinessInsider,10-4-2020: Since armed conflict would be disastrous for all, it is essential that the US and the rest of the international community do everything they can to deter Beijing from taking unnecessary risks that could quickly spiral out of control | |
◆ Washington Examiner 10-17-2020: China’s saber-rattling in the Straits of Taiwan has stoked American worry that Beijing might seek to conquer the island by force. It’s a near-term problem. it could get worse in the next couple of years | |
◆ New York Times, 7-2-2020: The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing. Yet the two sides are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise. | |
◆ DW , 9-19-2020: the world has underestimated the severity of this flashpoint and that there's the potential for war over Taiwan — I think itself is an underestimation," said Ian Easton ... : "2020 to 2030 is the most dangerous time on earth, in my opinion, for a conflict with China over these disputed territories." | |
◆ Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020: An invasion may not be imminent but experts say armed forces could have capacity to mount one by the end of the decade | |
◆ New Zealand Herald, 10-4-2020: China, Taiwan tensions could result in all-out war with the US | |
◆ National Interest, 9-26-2020: The probability of war ... is growing in the Taiwan Strait. "The deluge is closer than many think" | |
◆ Express (UK), 10-3-2020: WW3 warning: China to RAMP up Taiwan take over plans if huge US arms deal is agreed | |
◆ Forbes, 9-29-2020: Beijing’s recent actions may indicate that its willingness to take risks is increasing. Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated. it is important to bear in mind that arming Taiwan isn’t just about keeping the island free. If Beijing breaks out of the first island chain, everything changes in the Western Pacific | |
◆ Express UK, 9-14-2020: CHINA could take advantage of the current crises crippling the world's powers and increase its influence over the South China Sea in the next months risking war | |
◆ The Guardian, 9-22-2020: The Chinese foreign ministry’s comment, there was no so-called median line in the Taiwan Strait “as Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory” , is equivalent of destroying the status quo.”. Global Times (China), 9-23-2020: Taiwan island, US fabricate a ‘median line,’ sign of weakness: experts | |
◆ Express (UK), 9-22-2020: Taiwan tinderbox: China could launch missile over island if US dares to visit, says expert | |
◆ foreign affairs, 6-18-2020: A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ... | |
◆ France 24, 9-16-2020: Taiwanese FM on China: 'After Hong Kong, Taiwan might be next' | |
◆ CNN, 9-21-2020: Global Times of China: The "PLA drills this time are not a warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover," | |
◆ Washington Post, 9-18-2020: China launches combat drills in Taiwan strait warns us not to play with fire, Taiwan warned that it could devolve into all-out war | |
◆
Express (UK), 9-22-2020:
World war 3
warning:
CHINA has issued its latest threat
to Taiwan, warning the state to
"prepare for
dire
consequences" if it continues to
strengthen ties with the US.
|
|
◆ Guardian 9-17-2020: Taipei fears “a real possibility” of war | |
◆ NY Times, 9-19-2020: The Chinese aircraft, including two H-6 strategic bombers, crossed the median line between the mainland and Taiwan in the strait from four different directions | |
◆ New York Times, 9-18-2020: U.S. Official Visits Taiwan, and China Warns of Consequences “Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States” | |
◆ BusinessInsider, Politico, Stars and Strips , 9-18-2020: "The signal from Beijing is very, very clear, but does that mean a prelude to war? No, far from it," said former deputy defense minister in Taiwan. | |
◆ Forbes, 9-2-2020: Even though the likelihood of that ( invasion of Taiwan) happening remains low, the report (US Defense) shows that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor | |
◆ Express, 9-20-2020: Tensions between Taiwan and China have risen to unforeseen levels this year. | |
◆ Stars and Strips , 9-18-2020: Despite of the frequency of the exercises, analysts said it does not mean imminent war. "No, far from it” | |
◆ VOA, 8-21-2020: a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan... could happen as early as next year... the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity... Joseph Biden: the U.S. has not been obligated to defend Taiwan ... There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan | |
◆ Bloomberg 7-30-2020: Now fears are growing that Xi wants to cement his place alongside Mao and Deng by conquering Taiwan... Of the many US-China conflicts right now — none is more dangerous over the long haul than that involving Taiwan | |
◆ Bloomberg, 8-20-2020: The danger of a Chinese assault on Taiwan is growing. And the U.S., which has an ambiguous security commitment to Taipei, might well lose if it joined such a war on Taiwan’s behalf | |
◆ Guardian, 8-18-2020: The increasingly assertive behaviour from China suggests that Beijing’s options to annex Taiwan are shrinking | |
◆ Express (UK), 7-29-2020: Harvard prof. Ezra Vogel : Unfortunately, there is possibility of an armed confrontation. Nobody wants it, and everybody would lose if a war erupts. | |
◆ Foreign Policy 8-4-2020: CCP may be increasingly tempted to act against Taiwan. Helping to deter any such aggression doesn’t require nukes, but it should nonetheless be an urgent national security priority for Washington | |
◆ The Australian 8-4-2020: Xi has made it clear that taking back Taiwan would be the crowning achievement in his vision to restore China’s place as a great power. we tend to underestimate the importance the US puts on the defence of Taiwan. | |
◆ SCMP, 8-21-2020: There is disturbing evidence that US President Donald Trump considers relations with Taiwan expendable in the context of a deal he could make with China | |
◆ US Naval Institute, Proceedings, Aug. 2020: 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making... such an opportunity would only appear every few decades...for achievement of a long-held goal — to bring Taiwan back into China | |
◆ Ian Easton on Taipei Times, 7-27-2020: if Washington signals its resolve to defend Taiwan, the CCP could lash out. Knowing that risk, American leaders avoid it. This kind of short-sighted behavior is like a cruise line captain steering his ship north, into iceberg country, to avoid patches of rough water in the south...Wars have occurred only when ambitious dictators saw American indecision and miscalculated ...That’s why, in the 2020s, Xi Jinping (習近平) is probably going to invade Taiwan if nothing major changes. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/07/27/2003740606 | |
◆ National Interest 7-18-2020: This ( attack on Taiwan) will be much more difficult and costly than Hong Kong has been, but ... for these people, that cost is deemed as necessary and they will gladly pay it. Unless the United States binds itself to protect the independence of Taiwan on pain of war, Taiwan is next. | |
◆ Daily Express, 8-15-2020: CHINA will look to punish Taiwan after the US Health Secretary, Alex Azar, visited this week and will eventually "invade" the state, "The Chinese will seek to punish Taiwan because they can’t punish Americans" | |
◆ Daily Express, 8-13-2020: World War 3: China 'ready' for conflict with US over Taiwan row ... Peking University Bo: there could be parties with the US military aiming to create a small-scale and “controllable” conflict with their Chinese counterparts | |
◆ CNN, 8-11-2020 : Beijing's warplanes have only crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") intentionally three times since 1999 (ps: Newsweek 8-12-2020: since 1949)-- once in March 2019, in February of this year, and again on Monday (Azar met with Taiwan President Tsai) | |
◆ Express (UK) 7-18-2020: MILITARY tensions between China and US escalated further today, after a strong ally of President Xi warned that Beijing would invade US-backed Taiwan "early next year" | |
◆ CNBC, 8-5-2020: Taiwan is in a ‘delicate’ situation with China as military drills intensify... in the near-term, they do not have the capacity to really ‘retake’ Taiwan, ... over the years ... not a scintilla of evidence of flexibility on these kinds of core interest questions, and that’s what makes Taiwan so dangerous | |
◆ Japan Times, 8-10-2020: Trump’s attacks on China reach new peak of ‘pent-up’ grievances,the Chinese side is unlikely to “overreact” to an action that has been taken less than three months before the U.S. presidential election | |
◆ Express UK, 8-10-2020: China and Taiwan spark huge war fears as missiles sent to coast and navy deployed, these missiles "are able to destroy all military bases and government buildings on the island accurately" | |
◆ aljazeera 8-12-2020: Experts in Taipei ... say an invasion is unlikely any time soon | |
◆ The Week (UK) , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020 : FT isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?" | |
◆ New Zealand Herald, 8-9-2020: Tension reaching boiling point! Beijing mobilises invasion craft along coast, satellite images reportedly show amphibious armoured vehicles and mobile missile launchers massing at military bases near the island nation...series of "combat readiness" exercises over the disputed South China Sea, with combat aircraft and naval vessels... | |
◆ Global Times, 8-14-2020: Chn. warns: being a piece in the US chessboard could lead to checkmate | |
◆ Daily Mail, 7-22-2020: China has made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan. | |
◆ FoxNews 7-8-2020: The passage of a national security law on Hong Kong has put Taiwan on edge, with pro-democracy activists fearing that Beijing will soon have the self-ruled island in its crosshairs | |
◆ Bloomberg, 6-24-2020: We may well see a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait before the decade's out. | |
◆ LOWY institute 7-9-2020: Xi isn’t such a realist when it comes to Taiwan. Beijing views Taiwan in largely political terms – preoccupied with “the great trend of history” towards unification. | |
◆ foreign affairs, 6-18-2020: A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ... | |
◆ USA Today 7-5-2020: Taiwan has never been more important to American interests. | |
◆◆◆ | ◆ Reuters 5-22-2020: In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word "peaceful" in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades, an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral. |
◆ Washington Post, 5-30-2020: China vows to 'smash' any Taiwan independence move as Trump weighs sanctions. | |
◆ Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Beijing were to interpret ... coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ ) ◦ | |
◆ Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Given how little Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong has cost it to date, we are concerned that Beijing will draw the wrong conclusions about the costs of future coercion against Taiwan | |
◆ Washington Post 7-7-2020: HK national security law could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan ... China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy | |
◆ Washington Post, 7-22-2020: in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. But as a precondition for talks, China demanded that Tsai acknowledge the “one China” principle... Inside China, the government has faced growing calls from hawkish military pundits and nationalist commentators to grasp the current strategic window to seize Taiwan | |
◆ Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-7-2020 : Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory. | |
◆ Financial Times, 6-3-2020: if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force. Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent. | |
◆ Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020: by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan, peaceful or non-peaceful unification, but as Taiwan is expected to be “defiant…military action will be the only solution.” Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months. | |
◆ Express (uk), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan. Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest ) | |
◆ National University of Singapore visiting scholar Drew Thompson on《自由亞洲電台》, SETN, NextTV, 6-4-2020: A war in Taiwan Strait will break out within 5 years ... China strikes Taiwan around 2024. (「台海5年內必戰」「侵台時間大概在2024年」) | |
◆ New York Times, 6-26-2020: When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ... American warships through the South China Sea and stepped up support for Taiwan and its military ... the possibility of confrontation would increase as the U.S. presidential campaign heated up | |
◆ National Interest, 8-28-2020: Could China Successfully Blockade Taiwan? China hopes direct action will yield clean and swift results, letting it present Asia, America, and the world a fait accompli — a done deal | |
◆ Daily Express, 8-17-2020: WW3 fears escalate as China sends warship to South China Sea in warning to US and Taiwan | |
◆ The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 : Beijing’s red line would be Taiwan declaring independence. | |
◆ EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020: the PLA troops have high war readiness in all fronts, but despite India-China border tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, the risk of a full-scale war remains very low thanks to the PLA’s strategic deterrence. | |
◆ The bulwark 6-24-2020: If Taiwanese independence were ever formally recognized by the United States, the CCP would almost certainly issue military threats and send naval vessels into the strait––whatever was necessary to bring the Taiwanese to heel. | |
◆ VICE, 7-24-2020: there is a slim chance that China’s military will cross the Taiwan Strait anytime soon. facing a Chinese party congress in 2022 that will determine the renewal of his chairmanship of the party—Taiwan could become a bargaining chip | |
◆ The diplomat 6-3-2020: the 3 flashpoints (one is Taiwan) that could turn a us-china cold war hot | |
◆ NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next. | |
◆ Washington Monthly 3-11-2020 : internal pressures within Chinese politics may drive PRC authorities to act recklessly before the 2022 party conference, in which Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term as the country’s president. | |
◆ The Guardian UK, 5-20-2020: While analysts believe an invasion is not likely, Chinese state media have been quick to point out China’s military might. “What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength,” said an editorial from the state-run Global Times, published immediately after Tsai’s speech. | |
◆ Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: calls for “reunification by force” were growing on the mainland ... | |
◆ People's Daily (China), 5-24-2020 : Chinese PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity. | |
◆ Singapore's The Straits Times, 5-20-2020: China now has the strength to "overwhelm the Taiwan military and deter the US military". warned by Global Times. | |
◆ USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049. | |
◆ Freebeacon 5-17-2018 : 2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan ... | |
◆ The China Times (中時) editorial, 5-23-2020: Reunification by PLA force will not come on stage immediately, but some accidental events may happen in the future. The China Times, editorial, 5-24-2020 has same view-point. | |
◆◆◆ | ◆ The Liberty Times (自由時報), editorial, 5-25-2020 : Communist China's new strategy will take hard line as principal axis against Taiwan...。Communist China's pressure will be stronger and stronger。 |
◆ L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020 ( references ): Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island. Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent. | |
◆ Annual Report to US Congress ( Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC ), 8-17-2018: Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force | |
◆ South China Morning Post, "紫荊雜誌" (Bauhinia Magazine), Hong Kong internet media, The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020: Former PLA general 喬良 concluded that "Peaceful reunification" is hopeless, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force (「文統無望、只能武統」). Taiwan issue is, in essence, China-USA issue, when the right time ( China-US arm wrestling game done ) comes, Chinese army will kill any one no matter monks or Buda, on their way. Bloomberg 6-24-2020: 喬良 :an invasion of Taiwan could be catastrophic for China: Even if the US doesn't join the war... | |
◆ Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior... | |
◆ Washington Post 7-15-2020: President Trump’s policy of international retreat and disregard for allies, alongside Xi’s growing assertiveness and expansionism, put Taipei at the intersection of the two ominous trends ... Biden is committed to the status quo in Taiwan | |
◆ The Times, 6-4-2020: "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order "。/ UK former FP Jeremy Hunt | |
◆ Economist 5-28-2020: America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong | |
◆ Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News, Liberty Times (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned that the lack of international sanctions may lead Beijing into believing that it could overtake Hong Kong and Taiwan without consequences. (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942917 ) | |
◆ The Times, "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order ", 6-4-2020: 若遲早要發生軍事衝突,不如先下手為強。因為台灣在解放軍的飛彈射程內,且孤立主義的川普總統干預外國事務的可能性大減。/ 英國前外相 Jeremy Hunt | |
◆ The Trumpet, 6-29-2020: In the months ahead, we should expect to see China continue using disruption, isolation and constraint in its Taiwan policy... today, with America weakening, and with China understanding that time is no longer on its side with Taiwan | |
◆ L.A. Times 6-9-2020: HK Univ.: Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty. | |
◆ CATO institute, The American Conservative, 6-8-2020 : If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go. | |
◆ John Bolton : (Taiwan could be the next ) Taiwan was right near the top of the list, and would probably stay there as long as Trump remained President, not a happy prospect... (Jun. 2020)。 Washington Post: 10-18-2019 " Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria Could Taiwan be the next ": Could an unscripted phone call between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping greenlight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan Given Trump's impulsive nature, that chilling scenario — and its baleful ramifications — can't be ruled out | |
◆ Global Times, 6-30-2020: US using Taiwan as ‘last card’ may only speed up reunification...PLA aircraft could fly over island if US invites Taiwan military for exercise | |
◆ Apple Daily (蘋果日報 ) 8-18-2018, headline news - US report warns China signals its readiness for unification by military force ― anytime. | |
◆ Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716) | |
◆ United Daily (聯合報), 8-18-2018 : China still seek unification by force - Taiwan losing military edge. China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan. ps: Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military. | |
◆ The Interpreter , The LOWY Institute ( think tank in Australia ), 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security. Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard | |
◆
CGTN 6-22-2020: China's |
|
◆ SCMP, 7-22-2020: The PLA will definitely use force to take Taiwan back if the US provokes Beijing, because foreign force intervention is one of the three taboos listed by the Anti-Secession Law” in China ... Xi may plan to achieve his goal in the next five to 10 years, but current tensions with the US may push him “to speed up the process of reunification” | |
◆ Taiwan's intelligence chief told a law-maker that the probability of China attacking Taiwan at this moment is up to 60~70% ... / SETN 3-26-2020 | |
◆◆◆ | ◆ If some day the democracy and freedom in Taiwan becomes a model for the world, it will be more difficult for PLA to attack Taiwan and kill Taiwanese. |
● FEARS soar ● Express (UK), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan. Express (UK) 6-10-2020: South China Sea crisis ― Taiwan invasion fears soar. Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong- protest ) express.co.uk 5-30-2020: Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring Taiwan. Financial Times 5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone. Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China. https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d The SUN, UK, 5-25-2020: ... the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland. The New York Times at 11-4-2017 noted that Taiwan’s historical advantages ( geography and the US support ) in deterring a potential attack has been “eroded or negated” in that Chinese military is "more potent".
|
US military VS. China military
[ People's Liberation Army ]
● Washington Post, 1-28-2021: Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a U.S.-China Clash / The dispute (one-China principle) has reopened the Taiwan debate in Washington, raising the stakes for U.S. President Joe Biden’s efforts to counter China without sliding into a war. washingtonpost.com/business/why-taiwan-is-the-biggest-risk-for-a-us-china-clash/2021/01/27/185d96f6-60eb-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html
Military items | USA | China |
Military personnel | 1281900 | 2693000 |
combat tank | 6287 | 13050 |
naval assets | 415 | 714 |
aircraft | 13398 | 3187 |
oil reserves | 36,520,000,000 barrels | 25,620,000,000 |
Daily Express , 9-7-2020; www.express.co.uk/news/world/1332183/world-war-3-china-news-us-navy-South-China-Sea-aircraft-carriers |
● FoxNews, 1-28-2021: China testing Biden with incursions against Taiwan, India: 'This is a very dangerous time; they're not afraid of Biden,' expert tells 'Your World'
● Nikkei (Japan), 1-28-2021: it is at Pratas Island where a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war is being played out between the U.S. and China. asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-tests-Biden-on-Taiwan-with-eye-on-another-island
● New York Times, 6-26-2020: China’s military is widely thought to remain far behind American armed forces, but it has caught up in some areas, including the expansion of its naval power and the deployment of anti-ship and antiaircraft missiles...China now posed “a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific ...China’s military remains untested. ...
● Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Over the last two decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has made advances that seriously eroded U.S. military power in the western Pacific, especially around Taiwan...the U.S. military now faces the prospect of losing a fight with China in defense of Taiwan. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong
● National Interest, 6-27-2020: Global Times report cites an abstract of China’s 2020 research report on the U.S. military presence in Asia, stating that the U.S. operates 60 percent of its Navy fleet in Asia, 55 percent of its Army and two-thirds of its Marine Corps. “With 85,000 forward-deployed soldiers and a large amount of high-tech and new weaponry, the U.S. military has maintained its absolute supremacy in the Asia-Pacific over the years,” https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-military-aircraft-have-again-entered-taiwan%E2%80%99s-air-space-again-163674
●
● SCMP, 9-13-2020: military expert at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, also agreed that the risks of war at the Taiwan Strait remained manageable, but this was only because Beijing had not achieved military superiority over the US. “If we fight a war with the US, we will make sure that we have absolute superiority and up to now we have not done so “Both China and the US don’t want to fight a war – if a nuclear war is triggered, no one can guarantee a win.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3101363/us-presidential-election-china-trump-and-red-lines-taiwan
● Forbes, 6-7-2020: There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies. If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle. American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers ( brief )
● News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade.
● Asia Times, 9-7-2020: USAF eyes B-52s dropping sea mines to defend Taiwan - According to a US Air Force wing commander, that’s what a US intervention might involve, should China decide to invade Taiwan.
● Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan. Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).
● New York Times 5-24-2020: China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.
● Voice of America, 6-4-2020: US navy will win a war with Chinese navy at this moment... ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )
●
Foreign
Policy 5-15-2020:
Xi has resisted pressure from various
constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is
no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.
● CNN, 9-3-2020: a forcible takeover of Taiwan could be a bad bet for Xi either way -- US help or not
● CBS news
(USA), 11-14-2018:
U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with
China or Russia
the
National Defense Strategy Commission: "It might struggle to win, or
perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...
"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat." ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)
● France24, 8-10-2020: Critics have accused US President Donald Trump of ramping up criticism of China as a way to divert from growing public anger over his administration’s coronavirus response, especially as he fights for re-election ... Trump administration was still paying heed to China’s red line—that no US official handling national security visit Taiwan.
● RealClearDefense 9-15-20 Regrettably, the United States isn’t doing enough to deter Xi from attacking Taiwan. A first step in correcting this is updating or replacing the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)... the U.S. should help Taiwan help itself by providing tools tailored to defending the island https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/09/15/defending_taiwan_and_deterring_china_577452.html
Alex Azar’s trip , the highest-ranking visit by a U.S. official to Taiwan in decades |
|
◆ MirageNews (Australia), 8-11-2020: (where is that red line for the U.S. in terms of us going in and defending Taiwan?) | Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. |
◆ The Week , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020 | FT : she isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?" |
◆ Washington Post, 8-6-2020 | Alex Azar’s trip to Taiwan is about refusing to appease China. a fraught strategy and the stakes are high |
◆ Financial Times, 8-9-2020 (UK) | US health secretary’s Taiwan trip is sign of strategic shift , new risks it creates for Taipei as it becomes a crucial battleground in the escalating clash between the world’s two biggest economies |
◆ Forbes, 8-9-2020 |
U.S. Health Chief Arrives In Taiwan At Nadir In Washington-Beijing Ties |
◆ AFP , 8-8-2020 (France) | a high-level visit to the island shows it is still treading carefully on an especially explosive issue... they (US) are trying to come as close as possible to China's red line but don't want to cross it." |
◆ CGTN, 8-9-2020 (China) | A dangerous move that benefits no one ! another step to provoke China while the Sino-U.S. relations deteriorate... the move reveals the Trump administration's multiple calculations... making the Taiwan Straits a new battlefield as U.S.-China tensions soar... Making China the scapegoat to divert attention from the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic has been one of the crucial strategies to save Trump. In this case, there seems nothing better than playing the Taiwan card. |
◆ New York Times, 8-9-2020 | a test of China’s tolerance of the United States’ support for Taiwan at the most volatile time in the relationship between Beijing and Washington in decades. |
◆ ABC News, 8-8-2020 | The trip is a geopolitical chess move in the Trump administration's contentious relationship with China |
◆ Bloomberg, 8-9-2020 | It is about sending a message to Beijing amid rapidly deteriorating bilateral relations and the routine military nuisance that Beijing has been causing Taiwan throughout 2020.” a trip that stands to further worsen spiraling relations between the U.S. and China. |
◆ Financial Times, 8-9-2020 (UK) | Visit highlights island’s growing importance in clash between Washington and Beijing。 |
◆ New York Post, 8-9-2020, 8-7-2020 |
... a trip that’s spurred outrage from
China. By dispatching Azar, President Trump is delivering a clear message of resistance to China’s increasingly egregious behavior. |
◆ Bloomberg 8-6-2020 | "an outcome that Beijing has threatened could lead to war" , So far China’s response to the trip has been fairly subdued, suggesting that leaders in Beijing may be keeping their options open ahead of the election |
◆ SCMP (HK), 8-10-2020 | “The US has consistently treated Taiwan as a chess piece to contain China, and the DPP is going along with it,” They [the DPP] are acting as a toy in the US’ anti-China strategy, and must pay an increasingly high price for it. |
◆ CNN, 8-11-2020 | Azar's presence in Taipei is "a serious breach" of US commitments on Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry said |
◆ TVBS, 8-10-2020 | Azar in his speech addressed president Tsai as "president Xi". KMT advises the govt. to protest on this "mistake". |
◆ Chinese authorities slammed the US for sending a military transport aircraft over the island of Taiwan and urged the US side to abide by the three joint communiqués between China and the US. China reacted angrily about Taiwan (DPP) colluded with foreign forces to violate China's sovereignty and security, actively sabotaged peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and brought calamity to safety and the well-being of people on the island. |
pic.: At 6-9-2020, a US Navy (C-40A) is flying over West coast line of Taiwan before heading to Dongsha Island in South China Sea (red-line on pic., green land on left side is China mainland). |
although many media reported the flight
was re-routed for weather and military exercise nearby, but: ◆ New Zealand Herald, 6-15-2020: the US Navy flight was an overt signal of support for Taiwan is likely, especially given China's recent major military exercises close to its borders. ◆ The Drive, 6-9-2020: ( The US action ) "was almost sure to draw some form of rebuke from authorities in Beijing" ◆ NHK Japan, 6-12-2020: Some analysts in Taiwan say the administration of US President Donald Trump conducted the military flight to demonstrate its policy of working with Taiwan.
◆
News Australia, 6-14-2020: Chn. : can also be seen
as a de facto joint military drill ... |
PS: US News &
World Report 6-15-2020: provocative
move is used to deter China ...
it could cause an escalation with
China ◆ FocusTaiwan 6-9-2020: the C-40A's flight course as "rare" because the U.S. military usually operates only in international waters or airspace around Taiwan. "the Clipper's route took it through actual Taiwanese airspace, where U.S. military aircraft generally don't venture" ◆
China Times, 6-10-2020: The purpose of
the US is
riling China,
testing the waters and arm Wrestling. The tacit understanding
(Chinese military never respond US particular mission in public ocean) between
Chn. and US was broken since then. |
◆
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/502229-china-condemns-us-military-fo-provocative-flight-over-taiwan ◆ https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191355.shtml ◆ https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4623423 ◆ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200612_01/ |
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33964/taiwanese-fighters-drive-off-chinese-jets-after-navy-transport-plane-flies-over-the-island https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202006090013 |
●
Will US send troops to defend Taiwan ?
●
If China invades Taiwan ... |
|
◆ FoxNews, Newsweek, 9-22-2020 |
In an interview with Fox News on Monday,
Trump too talked tough on the
flashpoint, but declined to specify how
he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan
Strait "They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems." https://www.newsweek.com/china-what-happens-war-breaks-out-taiwan-1533385 |
◆
FoxNews, 8-23-2020,
Q: 1)
it seems to
be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects
that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors." |
Trump : 1) They're coming to this country. 2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,” “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this" "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it" It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing
|
◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020 |
Pompeo: this is obviously
a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We
have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that
we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and
commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United
States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is
wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and
the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of
understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that
we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/ Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources |
◆
FoxNews, 6-1-2020
QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? |
SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story.
Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the
commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the
Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news
is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We
have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.
https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/ |
◆
washington examiner,
10-7-2020 in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene |
SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo
avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan
◆ Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020: Pompeo: U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china
|
● VOA, 8-21-2020: The region’s military balance moves in China's favor, strategic ambiguity is increasingly unsustainable... Although the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity. Joseph Biden: "There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan" ...it would depend on the circumstances.
●
● Forbes, 9-22-2020: The United States Should Put ‘Tripwire’ Ground Forces In Taiwan: Expert
● Taiwan News, 8-11-2020: Former president of Taiwan says US will not engage in cross-strait conflict
● Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning
●
Forbes,
9-22-2020:
The U.S. Army Should Plan To Send
Four Divisions To Taiwan: Expert
/ David Axe
To
prevent PLA ground forces from
remaining on Taiwan in a ‘frozen
conflict’, the U.S. Army
should be prepared to deploy tens of
thousands of soldiers and thousands
of
heavy vehicles to the island country
and “drive the enemy into the sea,”, this requires the Navy and Air Force
to fight through China’s ... naval
and air forces to gain secure access
to Taiwan’s ports and airfields that
would allow the deployment of the
Army,”.
That’s easier said than done, of
course.
● The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.
●
●
●
Taiwan News, 8-11-2020: Former president of Taiwan says US will not engage in cross-strait conflict
●
●
● South China Morning Post, 6-30-2020: Taiwan warned against ‘wishful thinking’ that US will come to rescue if China attacks
●
● New York Times, 7-2-2020: Doubts have emerged about President Trump’s personal commitment to Taiwan, especially as he tries to hold together a trade deal with China. ... KMT law maker : “If Taiwan fights against the Chinese Communist Party, the United States won’t come to rescue us,” ... As always, Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support. The United States is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself。
●
● Chicago Global Affairs Council
"Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?"
2015 | 2018 | 2019 | |
China invades Taiwan | 28% | 35 | 38 |
N. Korea invade S. Korea | 47% | 64 | 58 |
China initiates a military conflict w
Japan over disputed islands |
33% | 41 | 43 |
Russia invades a NATO ally (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc) | 45% | 54 | 54 |
https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/report_ccs19_rejecting-retreat_20190909.pdf |
●
●
● Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan. Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).
● National Interest 7-6-2020: China and Taiwan Could Be Headed Towards a Showdown... Will it be easy to defend Taiwan? No. ... attempt great feats “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”
● Economist 5-28-2020: a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked...... America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. America's allies should echo that, loudly. https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify
● chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018, Missouri State University professor D. Hickey's comment : the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.
● The Liberty Times, (自由時報) ,1-24-2020: Agreements or treaties like <Taiwan Relations Act> (『台灣關係法』) have not clearly stated the U.S. has obligation or duty to send troops to defend Taiwan.
●
● Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020 https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/ : Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.
●
● The Diplomat 6-8-2020: Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.
●
● Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, ref. to Forbes : the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war.
●
● Maybe Taiwan won't fear military threat from China if the US definitely would come to the rescue once the reunification war breaks out. ( Financial Times 5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic...)
●
● Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020: After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.
●
●
● United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.
● National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan... ◦
● China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: China and the US flexed their muscles frequently near Taiwan territory, in this April, US fighters approached Taiwan Strait surrounding airspace 13 times, particularly B-1B reached there 3 times. Next TV news 5-8-2020: Chinese air force and fleets conducted a series of provocative, aggressive operations from Jan. 23 till April 22, once traversed Taiwanese 'territory' (Taiwan Strait median line).
● The China Times, opinion, 4-21-2018: survey/poll shows only 18% American are on the side of defending Taiwan by US military (僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台).
● New York Post, 5-26-2020: (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.
●
● The Hill 6-16-2020: That question was put directly by Chinese military officials to Assistant Defense Secretary Joseph Nye in 1995, between episodes of Chinese missile firings toward Taiwan: What would the U.S. do if China attacked Taiwan? Nye’s response: “We don’t know and you don’t know; it would depend on the circumstances.” https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan
● Bloomberg 6-24-2020: Even absent a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, the United States can telegraph that commitment by making the choices required to ensure it can defend Taiwan successfully.
●
● National Interest Organization, 3-5-2019 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187
In the 2017 TNSS (The Taiwan National Security Survey) survey, most (43.4 percent) thought America will not support Taiwan, while 40.5 percent believed America will commit troops to a conflict. In 2019, however, the number believing Washington will provide troops jumped to 48.5 percent, while the number who think it will not fell to 35.3 percent. If an attack is unprovoked, the percentage of Taiwanese who believe the United States will intervene soars to 60 percent.
● L.A. Times 5-20-2020 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-20/taiwan-president-calls-for-stability-in-china-relations), The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020 ( references )
The U.S. is the island’s main source of
military support against China’s military threats. Since 2008, the United
States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter
aircraft, tanks, and missiles.
The Diplomat said that while the U.S.
remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be
important partners as well. According to the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has exported arms from countries:
Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore,
Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiwan-looking-to-diversify-its-defense-partnerships/
However, China called the Taiwan
issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and
military contacts between Taiwan and any country.
Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had
signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship.
● Republic World, 5-25-2020: China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.
● Washington Post, 5-30-2020 The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.
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three presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) kept squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense.
● The LOWY Institute
, 6-16-2020 : The United States
sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.
Taiwan is often criticised for purchasing inappropriate capabilities, but
these sales serve a deterrent function ―
continues to extract political commitments from the US.
●
● FoxNews, 6-1-2020 https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/
PS: What's the commitment ?
◆ U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982) "817公報"
the United States of America recognized the Government of the
People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of
China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is
but one China and Taiwan is part of China.
The Chinese Government reiterates that the question of Taiwan is
China’s internal affair. The Message to Compatriots in Taiwan
issued by China on January 1, 1979 promulgated a fundamental
policy of striving for peaceful reunification of the motherland.
The Nine-Point Proposal put forward by China on September 30,
1981 represented a further major effort under this fundamental
policy to strive for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question.
the United States Government states that it does not seek to
carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its
arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or
in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent
years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between
the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to
reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of
time, to a final resolution.
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◆ Arms sales to Taiwan NSC Declassification Review (EO 13526) "白宮備忘錄" 1982
...
The US willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is
conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to
the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences. It should
be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters
is a permanent imperative of US foreign policy.
It is essential that the quantity and quality of the arms
provided Taiwan be conditioned entirely on the threat posed by
the PRC. (brief)
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● New York times, 11-4-2017: “(Taiwan) needs to resist a Chinese military attack for two weeks and wait for help from the United States or the international community,” echoing a strategy that has been at the core of Taiwan’s defense doctrine for decades......Taiwan’s armed forces, by contrast (Chn), have fallen way behind, struggling to recruit enough soldiers and sailors — and to equip those they have. A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits the United States to defend the island’s sovereignty, providing “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary” ... US latest arms sales " short of the major systems that could give Taiwan a real edge." (Singapore's The Straits Times :
●
Washington Post,
1-5-2018,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
Can China really
take over
Taiwan?
Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.” ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China. A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".
○
Taiwanese
youngsters are willing to go to war with China ??
○
Diplomat, 10-3-2020:
the United States should convince Taiwan to clarify its own commitment to
military readiness, noting that mandatory military service in Taiwan thediplomat.com/2020/10/taiwan-debates-military-preparedness-measures-as-chinese-threats-escalate/
L.A. Times,10-6-2020: To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to
first fight the stigma of military service
... Better pay, housing and college scholarships offered
by the armed services
★
Diplomat, 12-3-2020, "The
latest Taiwan National Security Survey contains both good and bad news
for cross-strait stability."
by Dennis V. Hickey , a foreign policy analyst and professor emeritus at Missouri State University. website: https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/more-and-more-taiwanese-favor-independence-and-think-the-us-would-help-fight-for-it/
China-US-Focus 5-4-2018
★
Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD)
found that almost
68% of Taiwan’s people were willing to go to war with China
★
China-US-Focus, 5-4-2018
:
TNSS (The
Taiwan National Security Survey
), a scientific
poll, is conducted by the prestigious Election Study Center of
PS: a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender”。
★ National Interest Organization, 3-5-2019 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187
Both polls and earlier surveys
found that almost 45 percent Taiwanese plan to “leave the country,”
“unhappily accept the situation,” “hide”
★ 5-8-2019:
New Party(新黨)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox4EVm45Kvc
,
★
VOA news, 9-21-2020:
The increasing number of air force incursions from China is starting to fray
nerves among ordinary Taiwanese, A Yahoo poll, as of early September,
★
Global Times, 9-28-2020:
survey released by Taiwan magazine Global Views Monthly on Friday showed
that if a war broke out, 54.2 percent of the respondents wished for peaceful
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202381.shtml
pic.: Zola Zu's article about the world war "I want you !" was printed in the China Times, leading news at that time
★ Taiwanese democracy ... click ! top rankings !!
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聯合報,
10-22-2020
嚴德發:若總統下動員令 第一時間作戰主力45萬人
國軍後備改革,有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示,若總統動員令一下,約26萬名後備軍人就要報到,加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員,約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力
https://udn.com/news |
募兵
徵兵 |
◆ Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands + reservists 260 thousands (call-up for active-duty training 14 days per year ) ― enough ?
■ Foreign
Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting
Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious
deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month
conscription and improving reservist systems are
another. This also means preparing the public for
conflict...
foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/ https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770 ■ Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hongkong-taiwan-military/
Financial
Times (UK, 10-1-2020)
reported the number of
Chinese military personnel is about 2m, Taiwanese
military is only 163,000.
Guardian UK (6-27-2020)
、Financial
Times UK
(10-6-2020、10-19-2020)
reported
that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been
estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers
or
about 50% of total PLA
strength
(
Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to
616 millions
)
◆ Combat skills and will-power Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’. But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan. Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky... Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers .
◆ SOL: Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible ―― Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.
◆
Core problem
|
FOCUS Taiwan's reservists |
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★ Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020 Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong? China Tests the Limits of Impunity
◆ The
Pentagon should further assist Taiwan’s military in reforming its reserve and
mobilization systems, which are critical to the institution’s long-term strength
★ Hong Kong Free Press, 7-15-2020: Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men. The short length of time means it is difficult to learn much beyond basic training.
。https://hongkongfp.com/2020/07/15/security-law-taiwan-must-be-wary-it-could-be-the-next-target/
★ "寰宇全視界", 9-3-2020: Guest professor advocates restoring conscription, however, this will offend youngsters, and enlisting system is a rarely-seen consensus on Taiwan. Another professor notes the US suggests the number of Taiwanese active force needs at least 220 thousands, but at this moment only 180 thousands.
★
United Daily (Taiwan)
,10-03-2020 /"I want independence, but not
join-the-army" https://udn.com/news/story/7338/4906441?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
★ Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists ( express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa) . Actually, probably much fewer Taiwanese soldiers will be there. Experts on Taiwan TV and Hong Kong Apple Daily said the reunification war is going to an end once PLA successfully landing, the Taiwanese chief said the total number of troops to fight PLA would be about 500,000, and according a survey, the biggest consensus between youngsters aged 20 ~29 and 18 ~ 19 ― not willing to be drafted or called up by Taiwanese military. This is the biggest crisis of Taiwan's national security (United Daily, Taiwan,10-06-2020).
★ Find out the number of Taiwan's armed forces personnel !
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pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-20-2020
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ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic
pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on Lycos, 6-1-2020
ps : National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic
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pic. : Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Yahoo search engine (US), 5-26-2020; No.5 at 7-11-2020
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 11-14-2020, 5-20-2020
ps: Taiwan internet army , top rankings on Bing, Yahoo, etc
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○
●
How to avoid a war in Taiwan Strait ?
Economist 5-29-2020: a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked...... America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. America's allies should echo that, loudly. (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong) Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior... NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade. Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Beijing were to interpret ... coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ ) The Hill (USA), 6-16-2020: China's Anti-Secession Law (ASL) that purportedly provided a “legal” basis for China to attack Taiwan, not only if it declared formal independence but also if it simply took too long to accept Chinese Communist rule. ( https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan )
● The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence “Open Hearing on China’s Worldwide Military Expansion.”, 5-17-2018
(1) China's “infatuation with Taiwan” ?
a visceral nationalistic design ...“if Taiwan survives as a democracy [it] undermines the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”