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Taiwan's military reform            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?
聯合報, 10-22-2020 　 嚴德發：若總統下動員令 第一時間作戰主力45萬人   國軍後備改革，有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示，若總統動員令一下，約26萬名後備軍人就要報到，加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員，約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力 　 　 https://udn.com/news /story/10930/4954777	募兵  徵兵	◆ Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands  +  reservists 260 thousands (call-up training 14 days per year )   ―   enough ?                according to Taiwanese defense minister's saying at end of 2020, it's Taiwan president Tsai's intention not to mobilize reserve in larger scale, not to expand the length of conscription (now only four months), or not to draft women.   A famous politics-talk TV program "寰宇全視界" says at 2021-5-1 that any political party advocating conscription will lose election.   　     ￭  Express (UK), 2021-4-8: Taiwan ‘ill-prepared’ for war with China say experts – ‘Facing a gigantic military threat’ Taiwan’s Defence Minister,   Mr Tsai added: "Our national security needs every young man to go to the armed forces, this is a national obligation.”Taiwan should learn from the example of South Korea, SIngapore and Israel where military service is compulsory for more than a year. express.co.uk/news/world/1419775/taiwan-army-china-ill-prepared-invasion-military-news-ont       ￭ Taipei Times, 2021-4-12: Easton: Because the threat of invasion is increasingly credible,... Taiwan could invest in an emergency stockpiling effort, make a tenfold increase in reserve force training days   taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2021/04/12/2003755509       ￭ Foreign Policy, 2021-4-5:  the state of Taiwan’s own forces does not bode well. If Chinese forces actually land, ... This would require well-trained conscripts and a reserve force—both major problems for Taiwan right now . The government has adamantly refused to expand the length of conscription, which is only four months, or to draft women       ￭  Diplomat, 3-20-2021: Taiwan’s government, however, has met entrenched opposition to these reforms from some senior commanders. Moreover, military effectiveness is limited by unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages thediplomat.com/2021/03/rumors-of-war-in-the-taiwan-strait/       ￭ DW, 2021-4-5: Taiwan's army 'ill-prepared' for potential Chinese attack / young men usually complete after their studies, was shortened to four months, but ...Taiwan should take a cue from South Korea, Singapore and Israel, where military service lasts considerably more than a year... All the more reason to train reservists regularly dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659       ￭  Defense News , 3-1-2021: efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers ( ... they also against full conscription ) and a lack of time.  the current administration seemingly “unwilling or unable” to compel the ministry to implement it, partly due politically sensitive moves, such as full conscription.       ￭ Financial Times , 2-20-2021: The US has long pushed Taipei to strengthen deterrence against a Chinese attack by bolstering its reserve force and training it to wage urban and mountain warfare should China invade. Defence experts in Washington have complained of a lack of resolve in Taipei to address the issue.   ft.com/content/51f8bfba-bd1f-4dff-af8d-1a5b477d1dc7       ￭  Wall Street Journal, 2-5-2021: “a hard problem for the U.S.” would be much less hard if Taiwan could reliably outnumber any invading force...With 23.7 million inhabitants Taiwan should manage two million, i.e., twice the size of the entire People’s Liberation Army ground force  wsj.com/articles/taiwan-could-defend-itself-more-effectively-11612563552      ￭ Foreign Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems are another.  This also means preparing the public for conflict...   foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/      ￭ Newsweek, 11-5-2020, News Australia, 11-7-2020: expert says Taiwan will need to bring back the draft in order to put up a fight. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/war-will-come-warns-beijing-after-taiwan-stocks-up-on-usmade-missiles/news-story/41a1d2b2e04e2f5e015c308b5dedd9b9 https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770       ￭ Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says    www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hongkong-taiwan-military/           But Taiwan goes the other way and declares it will cut off the number of 2021's new-entry volunteer service soldiers from 22,000 to 12,000, according to LTN 11-7-2020.  Is it a signal from Taiwan to China while pro-Taiwan Trump losing US election ?  Furthermore, Taiwan only plans to mobilize about 1/10 reservists, Newsweek (10-30-2020) doubts how many reservists may come once the war breakout, because in peace time, only 70% citizens came for 7 days-per-year call-up training.  By contrast, China's 北戴河 meeting set up a goal to mobilize all the people for the war.       　 Western experts' advices: number of reservists western analysts  advices a million  Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020 ￭ Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists a million  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020 ￭ Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles  more than a million ＵＳArmy University Press Military Review, Sept-Oct, 2020 ￭ Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity 2.3 million  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020   ￭ 2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training.  Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA 2~3.8 million New York times,  5-18-2017 ￭ The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists 。  Wikipedia, May 2020:  reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  ) 2.5 million Asia Times, 12-28-2020 　   Financial Times (UK, 10-1-2020) reported the number of Chinese military personnel is about 2m,  Taiwanese military is only 163,000.  Guardian UK (6-27-2020) 、Financial Times UK (10-6-2020、10-19-2020) reported that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers or about 50% of total PLA strength ( Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to 616 millions )  Therefore, Taiwanese military should needs more than a million reservists with strict trainings.  Taiwan's latest military reform plan ( mobilizing only about 1/10 reservists) starting from 2022 obviously is not good and early enough !  How does Taiwan know China will not strike before 2022 ?  Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020:  China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity... maybe between now and the communist party congress in 2022.”.    If Taiwan knows for sure China will not make any move on Taiwan, why Taiwan's FM calls on Australia to help prevent China War ? because Taiwan was now "very concerned" ... "the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was much higher than before" according to Newsweek 12-1-2020 and ABC Australia 12-1-2020.   Taiwan was criticized by NY Times in 2017 for relying on US military to fight China. 　 ◆  Combat skills and will-power   Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’.  But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan.  Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky...  Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers . 　 ◆  SOL:  Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible    ――   Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. 　 ◆  Core problem        Taiwan's politicians like to win an election rather than win a war !!        Diplomat, 10-3-2020:  Taiwan should lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years.  Such a policy, however, could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Party (DPP).   Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... NCCU professor says that without America's words, Taiwan still slept there doing nothing about reservist reform (寰宇全視界, 2020).  Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) :  Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  however, the United States may not be up to the task. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

US weapons,  good enough for Taiwan !?            'Five minutes to midnight' !!? 　 　           Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020:Taiwan should devote its limited defense budget to acquiring huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines.  Forbes, 9-29-2020: Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated.  Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems、long-range surveillance armed drones... 　     However, here are some problems: 　 ◆  too big !?         Many US weapons Taiwan bought in recent years are “big ticket”, "symbolic", such as M1 tank、 heavy vehicles、F16V jet ; SCMP (Hong Kong ,10-15-2020) and Japan Times (7-9-2019): those weapons Taiwan requested "will not alter the basic military balance in the region”  ; A more important issue is : Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...   Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries still consist predominantly of small numbers of advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage;  Bloomberg 10-27-2020 has same view.          Therefore, Taiwan should buy "smaller-size", mobile, lethal, hard-to-target and numerous (for strategic dispersion) practical weapons with maneuverability capabilities (missiles, HIMARS, etc) better for its asymmetrical capabilities.  But Taiwan went the other route.  DW (Germany), 6-6-2019 reported: Taiwan confirms request for US tanks, Taiwan may be seeking to buy 66 more F-16 fighter jets 。 Taiwan expert in Diplomat,11-3-2020 thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/ says the high visibility of conventional systems positively impacts Taiwanese morale and improves public confidence in the military, and those weapons are effective during peacetime.  The problem is:  does Taiwan have enough budget to buy those ? 　 ◆  too late !?          Newly bought US weapons take at least one year maybe 4~5 years to arrive in Taiwan? (e.g., F16V will come by 2026).  Independent (UK, 10-28-2020), SCMP( Hong Kong, 10-27-2020) : Taiwan says newly purchased US arms will help it destroy half of any invading Chinese force by 2025.  However, Defense News (10-27-2020): “I think if there’s anything to be concerned about its how fast we can get these systems to the Taiwan. If this is over the next 5-7 years, ... we shouldn’t be coming out of our seats celebrating. And that’s a political question ...".          Even all come early, still not enough !  Voice of America,10-15-2020: Experts Say Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts to Counter China.  Reuters (Oct. 2020) says Taiwan is developing and testing new missiles.          China's mouth-piece Global Times, 10-27-2020:  the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real "porcupine" ( Independent UK, 10-8-2020: US: Taiwan needed to "turn themselves into a porcupine" militarily,  "Lions generally don't like to eat porcupines.")                 　 ◆  too old !?         Forbes, 10-26-2020: Taipei’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles complicates Beijing’s invasion-planning.  Diplomat, 10-31-2020: New Offensive Weapons Package stretches the concept of “defensive” weaponry to its limit .         However, Defense News, 10-26-2020: The Harpoon missile (just purchased) is an older technology and travels at sub-sonic speeds, which means it may be more vulnerable to advanced air defenses. ...  Business Insider, 10-28-2020:  Harpoon anti-ship missiles could frustrate an amphibious assault a Chinese military.. expert in Hong Kong says the missiles "will boost Taiwan's attack ability a little bit," but they "cannot survive a real war and can barely make any change to the balance of military power between Beijing and Taipei.";  Global Times, 10-27-2020: The threat that these Harpoon missiles poses to the PLA is very limited, as they are high subsonic missiles designed in the 1980s, and the current self-defense and anti-missile facilities installed by the PLA on its vessels and land-based bases can shoot them down easily,"   The US has a more advanced anti-ship missile with stealth capability, but it won't sell it to Taiwan, so the latest announced sale is another expensive deal ...         If Biden is elected, things may even worsen, CNN 10-29-2020 says that Biden could offer minor concessions to Beijing, like providing Taiwan with less potent weapons. 　   ◆  Can Taiwan defeat China by US weapons ?          Taiwan's defense may be not too bad, but there’s little doubt that China would win a war with Taiwan, even if such a conflict would be costly on all sides, according to many analysts in media such as Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020, Bloomberg, 10-8-2020.  China even could destroy Taiwan easily by missiles or fatal weapons if it really wanted.  Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military.          Many pro-independence Taiwanese actually is short of "will-power",  if they all have "soul of the military" as Japanese army had in WWII , Taiwan's "Tokubetsu Kogekitai" ( とくべつこうげきたい ,「神風敢死隊」, suicide planes) may destroy Chinese only two aircraft-carriers to end the war.   As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll  (NewsWeek, 10-28-2020).           Both sides of Taiwan Strait are Chinese, Chinese blood in the veins.  NBC 10-24-2020: Economically, Taiwan is dependent on Beijing.  Washington Post, 1-2-2017 noted " 83 percent Taiwanese chose bread (China's economy) over romance ("independence").  Hope there's a win-win solution ahead.     originally written at 10-29-2020 　        　 https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa  10-11 https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/   https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204800.shtml https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-says-newly-purchased-us-111753710.html  https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/26/us-state-department-to-allow-sale-of-hundreds-of-anti-ship-missiles-to-taiwan-amid-diplomatic-row/ https://www.businessinsider.com/sale-of-missiles-to-taiwan-could-frustrate-a-chinese-invasion-2020-10 https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/experts-say-taiwan-needs-more-homegrown-military-efforts-counter-china https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/#439bad0147f6 https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-20201008-grd2fews3ffg7gdc4zyhagafjq-story.html https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/tiny-taiwan-caught-middle-u-s-china-battle-supremacy-n1244521 https://www.newsweek.com/china-war-taiwan-peace-poll-1542735

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	In world media's eyes, Taiwan is  ~
	◆ "conduit (tool)"  /    The LOWY Institute( think tank in Australia ) , 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security... and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences. ◆  "a dog under control"  /  Eurasian Times  7-9-2020: The Tsai authority ... turns to Washington and is willing to be used.  Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US. ◆  "a card to play"  /   Foreign Policy, 1-13-2021  "Taiwan Needs Real Allies, Not Opportunists, Not Partisans "  : ... That confirmed the suspicion of many Taiwan analysts that this administration views the island primarily as a card to play against the People’s Republic of China and as a convenient foil to it—or the “free China” per Pompeo’s press release.  ◆ "meat on chopping blocks" /  New York Times , 9-18-2020: Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States,... Many people are saying that Taiwan has become the meat on others’ chopping blocks” ◆  "human bomb"  /  Global Times, 9-8-2020: US sets Taiwan up as a 'human bomb'  ( drive the little to poke the big  ) ◆  "a rat" /  Le Monde diplomatique of France, '16: Taiwan, a trembling sweating rat, doing nothing to approaching huge cat (China), but turning around and  lifting high a banner "$O$" .  ◆  “a ticking time bomb"   /  Brookings, 12-14-2020:  Taiwan should follow suit and take a pragmatic approach, and avoid becoming what Graham Allision described as “a ticking time bomb" that could lead to a tragic conflict ◆  "food on the menu"  /  SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, Taiwan has long been on the menu." ◆  "a bargaining chip"  /  Forbes, 10-5-2020:  It would be a mistake for the U.S. to pursue an FTA as part of its China policy or to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, and Taiwan has reasons to be wary as well. ◆  " a tradable pawn", "a useful chess piece"  /  Global Times, 8-23-2020: Taiwan is a useful chess piece for the US only because of the US strategy to suppress the Chinese mainland. On the one hand, Washington exploits the Taiwan question to contain China, on the other hand it is inciting tensions and making money by selling arms to Taiwan...Taiwan is a tradable pawn.  Taiwan for the US is only a tradable chess piece, but for the mainland, reunification of the mainland and Taiwan is priceless. ◆  "cash machine" /  Global Times, 10-27-2020:  the latest announced sale is another expensive deal aimed at taking Taiwan taxpayers' money with low-quality weapons, in other words, the US is still treating the island as a "cash machine" ... ◆   "dispensable  irritant"  /   Asia Times, 11-16-2020;   Washington Post 1-18-2019: Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Could Taiwan be next ?  WP, 7-14-2020: Trump's policies are undermining the security of Taiwan's democracy ...

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The People’s Daily, 10-15-2020 , Global Times, 10-15-2020:  “Don’t say we didn’t warn you"  (「勿謂言之不預」)...
http://www.nexttv.com.tw/NextTV/News/Home/LatestNews/2020-10-17/275597.html 台灣 壹電視 壹新聞, 10-17-2020 The People’s Daily《告台灣情治部門書》full text : http://js.people.com.cn/BIG5/n2/2020/1015/c359574-34350271.html; Economist 10-22-2020 : https://www.economist.com/china/2020/10/22/chinas-half-loving-half-threatening-pitch-to-taiwan-doesnt-work Washington Post, 10-26-2020:  how the us should respond to china's saber-ratting on Taiwan	●  China's PRC state council office for Taiwan affairs (國台辦) , 2021-4-28：“Don’t say we didn’t warn you ”(「勿謂言之不預」) - after DPP looses new constitution committee's advocating rectification of country name to be "Rep. of Taiwan" ... ● Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece《人民日報》), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past ●  Washington Post, 10-26-2020: ... jingoistic editorials in China's state-run press — have raised concerns in the West that Xi is readying China for a new war. The target in this case would be Taiwan ●  After China's mouthpiece, People's Daily or XinHua editorial issued a severe warning "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" in 1962、1967、1978，Chinese PLA started military operations against Indian and Vietnamese troops respectively. ●  The People's Daily in Nov. 2019 sent a warning  "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" to Hong Kongers, in the next year China cracked down HK, and passed a national security law on Hong Kong. ●  This time the People’s Daily put its warning to Taiwan's intelligence in "opinion/commentary" , instead of "editorial" column as before, and on "7th edition" instead of 1st~4th edition as before, ...  therefore, it's serious but not as severe as before, probably a warning for coercion or "gray zone" actions such as blockage or economic intervenes, or pressuring Taiwan into giving up ... those sort of psychological war. ●  SCMP (HK), 10-20-2020: ... unusually strong language in a recent commentary in People's Daily invoking the phrase “don’t say we didn’t warn you”, serves as a reminder, which was targeting a big rise in the number of Taiwanese intelligence agents active on the mainland, but was aimed at a much wider audience. ●  Washington Post (7-22-2020) :  In 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.  Soon later PLA's warplanes crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") first time ever since 1949, according to Newsweek 8-12-2020, and the PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions till now.
PS: The commentary also criticizes Taiwan intelligence's "green terror" and monitoring the public, which is good for Taiwanese people    PS2: Global Times, 12-5-2020:  there are eight obstacles in the way of achieving peaceful reunification which are legislature, education, elections, rising populism, US-led anti-China sentiment, conflict of interests business, culture conflicts and passive attitude of political parties.     PS3: CGTN 11-26-2020: Understanding the one-China policy: Taiwan is a part of China, but was ceded to Japan in an unfair treaty in 1895. The year of 1945 marked the end of the 50-year Japanese occupation of Taiwan. In 1949, the Kuomindang (KMT) party lost the Chinese Civil War to the Communist Party of China, and subsequently the Republic of China ceased to exist as a legitimate government. Chiang Kai Shek, the then KMT leader, fled to Taiwan and the island was given military protection by the United States, preventing formal reunification from taking place. ­In 1971, UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 set out that the People's Republic of China (PRC) constituted the only lawful representative of China and thus the PRC obtained the seat of "China" at the United Nations previously occupied by the Republic of China.In line with this, Beijing has requested other countries to accept the one-China policy as a prerequisite for diplomatic relations. Most countries have already accepted this principle and respected the one-China position. However, the Taiwan issue hasnot yet been resolved.

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Military Review  ―  Sept. ~ Oct. , 2020    /   ＵＳArmy University Press www.armyupress.army.mil/journals/military-review/english-edition-archives/September-October-2020/

brief

Military Review　paints a  picture ―  China's PLA will attack south-west coast of Taiwan, and land weaker-defense area - eastern Taiwan, southern Taiwan  　 　 　  ◆ 　　Why Would China Not Invade Taiwan Now?  /   Tim Willasey-Wilsey   Why Invade Now ? Why Not Invade Now ? The Trump administration has no appetite for overseas military adventures. Trump is not going to war with China, and not over Taiwan. He is far more interested in trade wars and economic advantage. whether PLA is capable of achieving a quick victory over Taiwan. There may never be another moment when the whole world is focused on managing an event of the scale of the coronavirus pandemic。 Though the Chinese are quintessentially patient, they are also demonstrably opportunistic a huge gamble for armed forces which have not been employed in combat during the careers of even their most senior officers. China could hardly be more globally unpopular than now. Much of it may be unfair but there will be plenty of time to improve diplomatic relations once Taiwan has been safely reunified The aircraft carriers and amphibious landing ships are still relatively new. A lot could go wrong Taiwan Relations Act fell far short of a guarantee to come to Taiwan’s assistance. Even President “Six Assurances”  made no mention of U.S. military intervention.  The Taiwanese will fight and fight hard. once reunified, pro-Western countries, like Japan and South Korea, will be more humbled and less likely to believe in the U.S. defense umbrella. the U.S. won’t want to get into a war over Taiwan; but there are many military options in cyber, South China Sea strikes, special forces, and other means unify the country in time for the centenary of the CCP in 2021 and long before that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2049. China has much more to lose internationally from economic sanctions  little chance that the U.S. would sail a carrier strike group into or near the Taiwan Strait now that the PLA Navy (PLAN) is equipped with quiet submarines the Chinese will crack down on Hong Kong, build their fleet, economy, and cyber for another decade, and make their move then against Taiwan—not now. 　 　 　 　 　 ◆ 　　Time Horizons Drive Potential Taiwan Cross-Strait Conflict   /   David An  a state will act based on its intentions, capabilities, and opportunities， time horizons。 converging time horizons drive China to be more aggressive toward Taiwan, shortening the timeline for unification, while at the same time driving the United States to be more willing to stand up to China’s aggression 　 U.S. intervention to assist Taiwan ？ Ｎｏ intervention security—Taiwan has been a loyal partner to the United States  not want to sacrifice its troops in another foreign conflict economics—Taiwan usually ranks as the tenth largest trading partner of the United States  avoid a direct kinetic conflict with nuclear-armed China regime type—Taiwan is a liberal constitutional democracy could escalate to frightening levels audience cost concerns ―  Japan, South Korea, and Australia will be more skeptical of U.S. commitment to them？  unit-level characteristics ―  the personal views of the U.S. leaders toward China and Taiwan at the time others that could intervene to assist Taiwan would most likely include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly the other NATO allies of the United States. Russia and North Korea might step in to help China 　 　 　 ◆ 　Deterring  the Dragon　Returning U.S. Forces to Taiwan　／　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Mills-Deterring-Dragon/  If the United States wants to maintain credible conventional deterrence against a PLA attack on Taiwan, it needs to consider basing troops in Taiwan. Ground forces based in Taiwan would not only be important for repelling a PLA invasion, but more importantly, they would act like what RAND calls a “tripwire”; that is, “smaller numbers of ground forces stationed to ensure that U.S. forces quickly become directly involved in a potential adversary invasion.”53 A small force would be economical and minimally antagonistic toward mainland China especially if it was only a rotational force. 　 　 ◆ 　Drive Them into the Sea　　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Dunn-Drive-Into-Sea/ 　 Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military operations. Success depends upon air and maritime superiority, the rapid buildup and sustainment of supplies onshore, and uninterrupted support. An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention. These stresses, combined with China’s combat force attrition and the complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency, even assuming a successful landing and breakout, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk.  what does America do when its forces arrive? Arriving in time to enforce a cease-fire is simply a means to delay losing. Just the credible threat of a U.S. Army corps capable of being deployed to Taiwan might deter China from starting an invasion; China might no longer be confident that the main effort will remain one between the PLA and the Taiwanese ground forces. And if deterrence fails, the corps will drive the enemy into the sea 　 　 　 　 ◆ 　New Opportunities amid Increasing Threats　　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Setzekorn-Taiwan-US-Army/ 　 Due to the PLA downsizing and streamlining into a force of roughly 1.3 million ground force personnel, not all of whom can be deployed, Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity

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US Naval Institute, Proceedings,  2020-August ;  Forbes, 8-24-2020   Chinese military vs. Taiwanese military   https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was

brief

◆(1)  The 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making.  The PBSC decided in mid-December (2020) to place in motion Operation Red Province — to bring Taiwan back into China. ◆(2)  Non-government voices on Taiwan, orchestrated as a deception operation by Chinese intelligence services, now called for full independence, creating a predicate for Beijing to move on its legal claim.  The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions and then commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January. ◆(3)  Two days before U.S. presidential inauguration, a message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion... China’s own “little green men” — emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities.  A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid.  ◆(4)  PLA seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus.  Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships.  An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced. ◆(5)  China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” sent messages: “Don’t join in any international rebuke of China or suffer the consequences of reduced Chinese trade and investment.” Stock markets across the globe crashed on 19 January. ◆(6)  the National Security Advisor said, “This is not about whether we stand behind Taiwan—we do—but it looks like we may have been outmaneuvered. I don’t like it,"

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China-Taiwan War/Tension :  China sent numerous aircraft close to Taiwan and crossed the sensitive median line  during two days of drills     by Reuters (UK)   9-21-2020 https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL3N2GI0KE

brief

WHY IS TENSION RISING NOW? two US top officials visits in as many months, and the US  is planning major new arms sales to Taiwan. 　 WHAT ARE THE RISKS? 1)  Taiwan and China do not have an official dialogue mechanism, which could quickly spiral out of control. 2)  China may quickly overwhelm Taiwan with missile and cyber attacks before the US even has a chance to respond, though it is an open question whether Washington would, or could, come to Taipei’s aid. 　 HOW DO THE ARMED FORCES OF THE TWO SIDES COMPARE? Taiwan’s military is  dwarfed by China’s People’s Liberation Army 　 WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN A WAR BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA? missiles and air attacks,  cyberattacks , naval blockade to force surrender

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The Scary War Game Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again and Again  8-17-2020    by Real Clear Investigations  https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html
	1) Taiwan Defense Act ― questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon, which have received scant notice in the mainstream press. 2)  The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over.
Chn. attacks Taiwan	◆(1)  China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation” ◆(2)  A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ;  China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan. ◆(3)  American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles.  Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets. ◆(4)  American  submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships,  but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy ◆(5)  Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) ― would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops ◆(6)  The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports.  Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element. ◆(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.
US defends Taiwan	◆(1) The key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait.  American long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600 miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours” ◆(2)   A second component of a Taiwan defense would be space-based reconnaissance using artificial intelligence to locate enemy targets, which the LRASMs would hit; a third would be an American version of flooding the zone, with unmanned undersea drones that could fire torpedoes at Chinese landing craft. ◆(3)  If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”
PS	1 )  an array of economic, diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and actions. 2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric  – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan.

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The Diplomat , 9-13-2020    https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/the-end-of-strategic-ambiguity-in-the-taiwan-strait/     The End of Strategic Ambiguity: Back to the Future by The Diplomat , 9-13-2020

brief

◆ The most likely course of action is increased political warfare against the Taiwan democratic system. Previously,  influence operations designed to persuade, with a focus on developing Taiwanese businessmen in China into a CCP-friendly constituency. While the overall emphasis has shifted to destructive subversion.  infiltrating  ―  local civic organizations, the media, and the military,  to create paralysis and unrest to justify, and then assist with, an invasion. ◆ The most dangerous course of action ― an invasion, achieving a fait accompli of securing Taiwan capitulation prior to U.S. intervention.  To achieve this,  the first is an extension of political warfare techniques into the kinetic realm: system destruction warfare, meant to paralyze the opponent’s leadership,  the second is the integration of AI and algorithms into operations.   “Intelligent operations,” with an “algorithm game” to “quickly and accurately predict the situation on the battlefield” and seize the initiative.

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If China invades Taiwan ...  responses from US president Trump,  state secretary Pompeo
◆ FoxNews,  Newsweek, 9-22-2020	In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Trump too talked tough on the flashpoint, but declined to specify how he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait "They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems."
◆ FoxNews,  8-23-2020, Q: 1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors." 2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?	Trump : 1)  They're coming to this country.   2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,”  “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this"  "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it" It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing
◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020	Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/   Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources
◆ FoxNews,  6-1-2020 　    QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?	SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/
◆  washingtonexaminer, 10-7-2020 in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene	SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan 　 ◆ Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020:   Pompeo:  U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china

  NEWS ~ NEWS

◆ Financial Times (UK), 2021-3-27: US fears China is flirting with seizing control of Taiwan◆ Reuters, Axios, 2021-3-27:Taiwan reports largest ever incursion by Chinese air force ◆ Forbes, 2021-3-26: Many observers believe the moment when the option “reunite”Taiwan by force is exercised is fast approaching. One time-tested solution would be to station about 5,000 soldiers plus supporting artillery and air defense units as a “tripwire”, without an early U.S. ground presence the invasion might well succeed ◆ Washington Post, 2021-3-26: Xi might be in favor of a risky push for reunification — especially if China continues to believe that a weakened America isn’t ready to fight back ◆ DW, 2021-3-25: B. Glaser sees a China military attack on Taiwan as unlikely ◆ Defense One, 2021-3-24:  More missiles will not guarantee Taiwan’s survival by themselves.  Taiwan must still prioritize urgent reforms of its ground, air, and naval defenses ◆ WSJ, 3-22-2021: Chinese President Xi Jinping has made clear that retaking Taiwan is a priority, and China's military is building a force capable of a quick-strike ◆ Bloomberg, 3-21-2021:  I see a very dangerous situation. The U.S. commitment to Taiwan has grown verbally stronger even as it has become militarily weaker... the reluctance of the Taiwanese themselves to treat their national security with the same seriousness that Israelis take the survival of their state ◆ Australian, 3-22-2021: Unfortunately for Taiwan, its future grows increasingly uncertain as Beijing’s military expansionism continues unabated...◆ Diplomat, 3-20-2021:Taiwan’s government, however, has met entrenched opposition to these reforms from some senior commanders. Moreover, military effectiveness is limited by unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages ◆ Politico, 3-15-2021:Trump indicated (in 2019) America might not come to Taipei’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion，"If they invade, there isn’t a f---ing thing we can do about it." ◆ Bloomberg, 3-14-2021: the Council on Foreign Relations report cautions against an explicit U.S. pledge to commit its own forces in the event of a Chinese invasion... the US will intervene. What reason is there to believe that the United States will sacrifice the lives of its own children to defend Taiwan? ◆ AFP, France24, 3-11-2021: the US was losing its military edge to China in the Pacific ◆ Guardian, 3-10-2021: China could invade Taiwan in next six years, top US admiral warns ◆ Forbes, 3-8-2021:Taiwan Aims To Sink Half Of A Chinese Invasion Fleet—It Could Take Years To Buy Enough Missiles ◆ NBC, 3-8-2021: CCP has threatened to invade if Taiwan declares formal independence or delays talks on uniting with the mainland...Biden should roll back the “dangerous practice” of showing support for Taiwan   ◆  Chn-TW war news cyber-links

◆ News (Australia) , 3-6-2021, NZ Herald (New Zealand), 3-7-2021:  Taiwan is in ‘imminent danger’ of being forced to unify with China ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan) , 3-3-2021:  H.R. McMaster : the period of greatest danger for Taiwan is from 2022 onward, after the Beijing Winter Olympics and the Chinese Communist Party's twice-a-decade national congress. "Taiwan is the next big prize" for China and is "the most significant flashpoint" that could lead to a large-scale war ◆ Taipei Times , 3-1-2021: "Either we arm Taiwan or die trying" ◆ DefenseNewss , 3-1-2021: Taiwan’s military is not yet “optimally manned, trained, equipped and motivated to defend against an attack” by China...efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers ( symmetric response, expensive and high-end platforms are limited utility in an actual conflict, they also against full conscription ) and a lack of time (weapons acquisition and development plans years away from delivery) ◆ Defense One , 3-1-2021: A SALAMI  Slice for Taiwan's Security, act boldly to “home-port” an American warship at a Taiwanese port ◆ Diplomat , 2-26-2021: evolution of Taiwan’s military was being hindered by bureaucracy and inefficient procedures. The army’s military preparedness has come into question from both domestic and international experts ◆ Guardian , 2-21-2021:Xi is forced to bargain with internal party figures to seek a third term...Taiwan is probably the best tool to do that... China is probably a decade or a bit longer from building up sufficient capabilities to feel it can confidently do so (military takeover of Taiwan )... Kinmen will fall early ◆ Economist , 2-20-2021: In reality America’s ability to deter an invasion over Taiwan is crumbling... the hardest part of deterring China involves building robust coalitions that are ready to challenge Chinese aggression...If China ever believes it can complete the task at a bearable cost, it will act ◆ New York Times, 2-12-2021: Analysts warned : Beijing may resort to war if the Kuomintang is unable to reclaim power or if the Communist Party feels it no longer has a dialogue partner on the island  news cyber-links

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◆ Guardian, 2-9-2021: the Taiwan Strait could become a flashpoint ..the pivotal reason peace had endured for 70 years had disappeared, ... ◆ Australian, 2-8-2021: China to take over Taiwan using "all means short of war" as early as 2024 ◆ Financial Times, 2-9-2021: Taiwan on alert after subtle shifts in tone from Biden administration ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2-1-2021: Taiwan Defense: A Hard Problem for the U.S. / American carrier battle groups within hundreds of miles of the Chinese coast would have difficulty surviving a coordinated attack by many hundreds of Chinese missiles...Will the extremely war-weary American public stand by for this unnecessary slaughter? ◆ NY Times, 1-30-2021: a war with China probably won’t happen. Yet if it does, it might begin in Pratas or Kinmen... it is a considerably greater risk than it had been for decades ◆ Washington Post, 1-28-2021: Taiwan Is the Biggest Risk for a U.S.-China Clash ◆ SCMP, 2-2-2021: Chicago Council on Global Affairs: Most US opinion leaders back military defence of Taiwan if China invades, But intervention is opposed by the majority of the American public, though support has increased in recent years ◆ Reuters, FoxNews, 1-28-2021: China warns Taiwan independence ‘means war’ ◆ Nikkei (Japan), 1-28-2021: White House spokeswoman : the Biden administration will maintain its predecessor's tough line toward China for the time being ... Taiwan makes up one of its fronts ◆ FoxNews, 1-27-2021:Unlike Trump in 2017, China is 'not afraid of Biden' ◆ NY Times, 1-24-2021: China sent warplanes into the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, a show of force to the Biden administration that signals Beijing’s plans to maintain pressure on Taiwan even as it calls for a reset with the US ◆ Wall Street Journal, 1-24-2021: China sent strategic bombers, jet fighters and a turboprop near Taiwan, a likely warning to the new administration over its support for the island   news cyber-links

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◆ Global Times (China), 1-25-2021: the juxtaposition of the three China-US joint communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act and the six assurances mentioned in the US statement this time differs from the Trump administration's refusal to mention the three joint communiqués in his later period...Only with the one-China principle in place can the Taiwan Straits avoid miscalculation ◆ Washington Examiner, 1-24-2021: The United States does not recognize Taiwan as an sovereign country, but U.S. strategists regard the island as a crucial link in a chain of islands that restrains the Chinese Communist military’s ability to threaten U.S. forces ◆ Washington Post, AP , 1-24-2021: We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected representatives ◆ Foreign Policy, 1-22-2021: Taiwan seeks assurances from Biden admin., but Biden and his team are likely to resist using Taiwan as a cudgel against China the way Trump did ◆ Reuters, 1-20-2021: Blinken : would uphold its commitment to ensure that self-ruled Taiwan has the ability to defend itself ◆ New Zealand Herald, 1-14-2021: A US national security document stamped "SECRET" has been declassified : the superpower would defend Taiwan against an attack from China ◆ WSJ, 1-11-2021:China has launched one of the greatest military buildups in the history of the world across the straits from Taiwan. Coupled with the artificial islands and military buildup in the South China Sea, it’s clear Beijing has been systematically seeking to create the conditions for a successful invasion of Taiwan.  This is anything but a secret; the gradual decline of America’s ability to forestall an invasion of Taiwan is well understood by governments around the Pacific.    news cyber-links

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◆ Newsweek, 1-6-2021:  China Wages Cognitive Warfare To Topple Taiwan Government  ◆ WSJ, 12-28-2020: The loss of democratic Taiwan’s independence against its will would be a geopolitical earthquake. The Pacific balance of power would shift decisively in China’s favor  ◆ Reuters , 12-10-2020:Taiwan is suffering a serious and worsening decay in the readiness and training of its troops, particularly its army units... crucial element is dramatic reform of the reserves and civil defense units, creating urban and guerrilla warfare units... but " It is almost as if fighting to defend the country is somebody else’s responsibility,” expert says ◆ NY Times, 11-24-2020: Biden Faces Pressure from Democrats and Republicans to Stand Up to China by Embracing Taiwan... He will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues ... won't use Taiwan to poke Xi Jinping in the eye and make him look weak ◆ National Interest, 11-20-2020: Would China really invade Taiwan? Maybe ! But the costs would be nuts ◆ Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity (~2022), experts fear ◆ WSJ, 11-15-2020: An attack on Taiwan, the top chips manufacturer, would roil industry and the world ◆ National Interest, 11-15-2020: Geography and history dictate that the American defense policy and the security of Taiwan are one and the same—and it cannot be decoupled◆ DW (Germany) ,11-10-2020:The Biden administration will have to make it quite clear from the outset whether it is ready to go to war for Taiwan's sake ◆ NY Times, 12-14-2020: Pound for Pound, Taiwan at the center of the battle for global technological supremacy is the most important place in the world, As the Cold War between China and the United States intensifies, that importance will only continue to grow
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◆ Reuters,11-12-2020:WHO says faces 'onslaught' of cyberattacks as Taiwan complains of censorship ◆ Express UK,11-10-2020: Due to Mr Biden’s less-severe tone on China in the lead up to the election, and has no specific policy for deepening ties with Taiwan, Taiwan officials fear a Biden administration would be more conciliatory towards Beijing at the expense of Taiwan ◆ Reuters,11-9-2020: Taiwan lawmakers described Biden as “China-friendly”, and others pointing to Biden’s opposition to a bill to strengthen Taiwan’s security in 1999 ◆ News Australia,11-7-2020: 'War will come’ warns Beijing after Taiwan stocks up on US-made missiles ◆ Newsweek,11-4-2020: Taiwan Would Last 'Only Two Weeks' in War With China, Says Ex-Navy Commander ◆ Japan Sankei Shimbun ( 產經新聞),10-29-2020:Japan's DM 岸信夫: Given military imbalance of both sides, anything can happen, Taiwan must be very cautious ◆ Yomiuri (Japan 読売新聞), 10-30-2020: Japan will hold military drill the largest ever since 35 years ago to avoid engaging in a possible China-Taiwan war ("１４万人演習…陸自「台湾有事」波及を警戒") ◆ NewsWeek, 10-28-2020: As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll ◆ Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.  With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. ◆ Financial Times, 10-19-2020: Mr Xi has already demonstrated that he is willing to take military risks and repressive actions that antagonise the west and scare China’s neighbours.  Political turmoil in Washington (ps: US election) may open a window of opportunity for Beijing ◆ Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT:  whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it ◆ Washington Post, 10-15-2020: Would the US protect Taiwan from China? Taiwan's new envoy hopes for 'clarity.' ... “I have not considered at all the possibility of too much support for Taiwan,” ◆ VOA, 10-17-2020: Taiwan Should Prepare to deter Chinese any sort of amphibious invasion or even a gray zone operation ( isolating the island economically, coercive and provocative actions short of the use of military force) ◆ WSJ,10-13-2020:  continued ambiguity in the face of Xi's escalating rhetoric and provocative movements by his armed forces in the Taiwan Strait presents the greater risk of a confrontation as dangerous  as the Cuban Missile Crisis ◆ VOA,10-15-2020: Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts, expand its military reserve, to Counter China ◆ Forbes,10-26-2020:To Thwart Invasion, Taiwan Points Powerful New Missiles At Chinese Bases       news cyber-links

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https://www.foxnews.com/world/will-taiwan-become-the-next-hong-kong  China military show of force near Taiwan has experts asking if island could be the 'next Hong Kong'

◆ Forbes, 1-29-2021: Desperate To Avoid a Bloody Beach-Assault, Chinese Troops Could Try Sneaking Into Taiwan ( in large container ships flying third-country flags to moor in southern Taiwan and northern Taiwan ... and perhaps that day’s ‘commercial’ flights )  forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/29/desperate-to-avoid-a-bloody-beach-assault-chinese-troops-could-try-sneaking-into-taiwan/?sh=4ffe58ed5ac9

◆ Forbes, 1-28-2021: China’s Future Stealth Bombers Could Clear A Path Through Taiwan’s Defenses  forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/01/28/chinas-stealth-bombers-could-clear-a-path-through-taiwans-defenses/?sh=12c1363c4a06

◆ Sydney Morning Herald (Australia), 1-29-2021: ‘It’s a red line’: Taiwan defence chair urges Australia to act over China war threats

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China is building an invasion force
Type 075  Assault Carriers	can deploy attack helicopters, transport helicopters, and landing craft
Type 071 Landing Platform Docks	Carry large numbers of troops with supporting landing craft and helicopters
Carrier Battle Group	2 aircraft carriers supported by guided missile destroyers and frigates
Landing Ships Tanks (LST)	Landing craft and ships taken up from trade land reinforcements
Zubr Hovercraft	Can quickly carry troops and light vehicles from shops to shore
ZTD-05 Amphibious Tanks	Can swim from a ship to fight  for control of a beach
The Queensland Times,  2021-2-6

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●   Forbes, 7-17-2020:   the Taiwanese military plans to let the Chinese get close  —  then lob thousands of missiles at them.  Taiwan's objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/17/if-china-invades-taiwan-could-target-shanghai-and-beijing-with-cruise-missiles/#438bd91230ff

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●   Bloomberg, 9-22-2020:  Taiwan president Tsai does have one major problem: The Communist Party is threatening her life, with its Global Times newspaper saying over the weekend she would be “wiped out” in a war if she violated China’s anti-secession law.   www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/china-s-war-rhetoric-pushes-taiwan-to-boost-u-s-economic-ties

●  The Hill, Hudson Org., 9-17-2020:  an assault on Taiwan would not end in a quick victory. Taiwan’s armed forces draw from a robust reservist pool; it knows its territory far better than its adversary and will receive unimpeachable civilian support in a conflict. To win, China must occupy and subjugate the entire island — and an insurgency, based in Taiwan’s mountainous center, is to be expected. While this is a fight China considers winnable, it must bring to bear all its capabilities.  China’s military is built to fight a short war, relying on long-range missiles and progressively layered defenses to isolate areas near the Chinese coastline. By raising the costs of American intervention, China seeks a political-military solution to its central strategic problem

https://www.hudson.org/research/16381-the-u-s-election-could-be-a-danger-for-taiwan-an-opportunity-for-china

●   Economist,10-9-2020:  China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...  Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky.  Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  

●   Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.  With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

●   Bloomberg, 10-8-2020:  Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,”  “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril "

●   Politico,10-8-2020: Taiwan’s not ready to defend itself...lack of defense capacity and their lack of depth...What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out”

●   Financial Times (UK),10-6-2020:  If Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers. China has a different playbook - coercion

●  Hong Kong Apple Daily ( 《蘋果動新聞》), 10-9-2020 :  China's PLA will attack Taiwan by Blitzkrieg or  lightning war to seal off and cut off the transportation (communication) way between Taiwan and Japan to avoid Taiwan's high-ranking officials running away and foreign country coming to rescue ; The better landing place for PLA large force will not be narrow Tamsui River or west coast, instead, very likely weak-defense east coast such as 宜蘭(YiLan) .  Once main force came, Taiwan is almost finished.  https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20201009/3HGWOL27GJDTZGS7GGYLDOJB3A/  by 台灣國防安全研究院國防資源與產業研究所長蘇紫雲、中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所兼任助理教授林穎佑，以及澳門軍事評論員黃東

●  Global Times , 10-9-2020: Taiwan’s military drills ‘a futile cover-up show’ against PLA operations.  The PLA has overwhelming military advantages over the island in terms of combat readiness of the troops, the advanced level of technology for weapons and equipment, numbers, tactics and strategies   https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202977.shtml

●  Wall Street Journal 8-30-2020: Fearing Hong Kong’s Fate, Taiwan Moves to Bolster Its Military Against China

●  Financial Times (UK), 10-1-2020  (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military    (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Chinese military superiority /  key:			contrast	Chinese military	Taiwanese military
100,000	active personnel		personnel	2m	163,000
50	combat-capable fixed-wing aircraft		aircraft	3,330	568
5	submarines		submarines	59	4
5	surface vessels above corvette size		vessels	107	26
200	main battle tanks		tanks	5,850	665
20	surface-to-surface missiles		missiles	603	12

●   Daily Express (UK) , 2-14-2021:   Total military personnel 2,693,000 , Airpower 3,210,   Tanks 3,500 ,  Aircraft Carriers 2  , Armoured vehicles 33,000        Destroyers 36 ,   Rocket projectors 2,650 ,  submarine 74   (ref to Global Fire Power Nov. 2020) ● Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020:  The Taiwanese military is dwarfed by its Chinese counterpart  –  Taiwan has less than a fifth of China’s planes, a 10th of its armed forces personnel and just o.1% of its missiles. ● NIKKEI asia review (Japan) , 9-25-2020:  Militarily, nuclear-armed China dwarfs Taiwan and has more than 10 times the budget and soldiers. It is reportedly negotiating with Taiwan a new $7 billion deal on seven major weapon systems, including sea mines, missiles and drones. ●  aljazeera, 10-8-2020: China was engaged in a significant naval build-up probably not seen since Germany’s attempt to compete with Britain’s Royal Navy prior to WWI... to push US navy back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan”