Taiwanese military  ￭  News  ￭ Taiwan vs. Chinese military  ￭  will China strike on Taiwan?  ￭  US vs. Chinese military  ￭  US send troops?   ￭  arms deal   ￭  Taiwanese willing to fight ?   ￭  others
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https://www.foxnews.com/world/will-taiwan-become-the-next-hong-kong  China military show of force near Taiwan has experts asking if island could be the 'next Hong Kong'
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   Taiwanese military

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Taiwan's military reform            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?
聯合報, 10-22-2020 　 嚴德發：若總統下動員令 第一時間作戰主力45萬人   國軍後備改革，有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示，若總統動員令一下，約26萬名後備軍人就要報到，加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員，約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力 　 　 https://udn.com/news /story/10930/4954777	募兵  徵兵	◆ Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands  +  reservists 260 thousands (call-up training 14 days per year )   ―   enough ?       Foreign Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems are another.  This also means preparing the public for conflict...   foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/      Newsweek, 11-5-2020, News Australia, 11-7-2020: expert says Taiwan will need to bring back the draft in order to put up a fight. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/war-will-come-warns-beijing-after-taiwan-stocks-up-on-usmade-missiles/news-story/41a1d2b2e04e2f5e015c308b5dedd9b9 https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770       But Taiwan goes the other way and declares it will cut off the number of 2021's new-entry volunteer service soldiers from 22,000 to 12,000, according to LTN 11-7-2020.  Is it a signal from Taiwan to China while pro-Taiwan Trump losing US election ?  Furthermore, Taiwan only plans to mobilize about 1/10 reservists, Newsweek (10-30-2020) doubts how many reservists may come once the war breakout, because in peace time, only 70% citizens came for 7 days-per-year call-up training.  In contrast, China's 北戴河 meeting set up a goal to mobilize all the people for the war.       　 Western experts' advices: number of reservists western analysts  advices a million  Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020 ￭ Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists a million  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020 ￭ Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles  more than a million ＵＳArmy University Press Military Review, Sept-Oct, 2020 ￭ Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity 2.3 million  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020   ￭ 2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training.  Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA 2~3.8 million New York times,  5-18-2017 ￭ The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists 。  Wikipedia, May 2020:  reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  ) 　 　 　   Financial Times (UK, 10-1-2020) reported the number of Chinese military personnel is about 2m,  Taiwanese military is only 163,000.  Guardian UK (6-27-2020) 、Financial Times UK (10-6-2020、10-19-2020) reported that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers or about 50% of total PLA strength ( Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to 616 millions )  Therefore, Taiwanese military should needs more than a million reservists with strict trainings.  Taiwan's latest military reform plan ( mobilizing only about 1/10 reservists) starting from 2022 obviously is not good and early enough !  How does Taiwan know China will not strike before 2022 ?  Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020:  China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity... maybe between now and the communist party congress in 2022.”.    If Taiwan knows for sure China will not make any move on Taiwan, why Taiwan's FM calls on Australia to help prevent China War ? because Taiwan was now "very concerned" ... "the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was much higher than before" according to Newsweek 12-1-2020 and ABC Australia 12-1-2020.   Taiwan was criticized by NY Times in 2017 for relying on US military to fight China. 　 ◆  Combat skills and will-power   Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’.  But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan.  Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky...  Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers . 　 ◆  SOL:  Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible    ――   Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. 　 ◆  Core problem        Taiwan's politicians like to win an election rather than win a war !!        Diplomat, 10-3-2020:  Taiwan should lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years.  Such a policy, however, could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Party (DPP).   Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... NCCU professor says that without America's words, Taiwan still slept there doing nothing about reservist reform (寰宇全視界, 2020).  Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) :  Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  however, the United States may not be up to the task. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

US weapons,  good enough for Taiwan !?            'Five minutes to midnight' !!? 　 　           Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020:Taiwan should devote its limited defense budget to acquiring huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines.  Forbes, 9-29-2020: Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated.  Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems、long-range surveillance armed drones... 　     However, here are some problems: 　 ◆  too big !?         Many US weapons Taiwan bought in recent years are “big ticket”, "symbolic", such as M1 tank、 heavy vehicles、F16V jet ; SCMP (Hong Kong ,10-15-2020) and Japan Times (7-9-2019): those weapons Taiwan requested "will not alter the basic military balance in the region”  ; A more important issue is : Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...   Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries still consist predominantly of small numbers of advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage;  Bloomberg 10-27-2020 has same view.          Therefore, Taiwan should buy "smaller-size", mobile, lethal, hard-to-target and numerous (for strategic dispersion) practical weapons with maneuverability capabilities (missiles, HIMARS, etc) better for its asymmetrical capabilities.  But Taiwan went the other route.  DW (Germany), 6-6-2019 reported: Taiwan confirms request for US tanks, Taiwan may be seeking to buy 66 more F-16 fighter jets 。 Taiwan expert in Diplomat,11-3-2020 thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/ says the high visibility of conventional systems positively impacts Taiwanese morale and improves public confidence in the military, and those weapons are effective during peacetime.  The problem is:  does Taiwan have enough budget to buy those ? 　 ◆  too late !?          Newly bought US weapons take at least one year maybe 4~5 years to arrive in Taiwan? (e.g., F16V will come by 2026).  Independent (UK, 10-28-2020), SCMP( Hong Kong, 10-27-2020) : Taiwan says newly purchased US arms will help it destroy half of any invading Chinese force by 2025.  However, Defense News (10-27-2020): “I think if there’s anything to be concerned about its how fast we can get these systems to the Taiwan. If this is over the next 5-7 years, ... we shouldn’t be coming out of our seats celebrating. And that’s a political question ...".          Even all come early, still not enough !  Voice of America,10-15-2020: Experts Say Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts to Counter China.  Reuters (Oct. 2020) says Taiwan is developing and testing new missiles.          China's mouth-piece Global Times, 10-27-2020:  the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real "porcupine" ( Independent UK, 10-8-2020: US: Taiwan needed to "turn themselves into a porcupine" militarily,  "Lions generally don't like to eat porcupines.")                 　 ◆  too old !?         Forbes, 10-26-2020: Taipei’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles complicates Beijing’s invasion-planning.  Diplomat, 10-31-2020: New Offensive Weapons Package stretches the concept of “defensive” weaponry to its limit .         However, Defense News, 10-26-2020: The Harpoon missile (just purchased) is an older technology and travels at sub-sonic speeds, which means it may be more vulnerable to advanced air defenses. ...  Business Insider, 10-28-2020:  Harpoon anti-ship missiles could frustrate an amphibious assault a Chinese military.. expert in Hong Kong says the missiles "will boost Taiwan's attack ability a little bit," but they "cannot survive a real war and can barely make any change to the balance of military power between Beijing and Taipei.";  Global Times, 10-27-2020: The threat that these Harpoon missiles poses to the PLA is very limited, as they are high subsonic missiles designed in the 1980s, and the current self-defense and anti-missile facilities installed by the PLA on its vessels and land-based bases can shoot them down easily,"   The US has a more advanced anti-ship missile with stealth capability, but it won't sell it to Taiwan, so the latest announced sale is another expensive deal ...         If Biden is elected, things may even worsen, CNN 10-29-2020 says that Biden could offer minor concessions to Beijing, like providing Taiwan with less potent weapons. 　   ◆  Can Taiwan defeat China by US weapons ?          Taiwan's defense may be not too bad, but there’s little doubt that China would win a war with Taiwan, even if such a conflict would be costly on all sides, according to many analysts in media such as Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020, Bloomberg, 10-8-2020.  China even could destroy Taiwan easily by missiles or fatal weapons if it really wanted.  Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military.          Many pro-independence Taiwanese actually is short of "will-power",  if they all have "soul of the military" as Japanese army had in WWII , Taiwan's "Tokubetsu Kogekitai" ( とくべつこうげきたい ,「神風敢死隊」, suicide planes) may destroy Chinese only two aircraft-carriers to end the war.   As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll  (NewsWeek, 10-28-2020).           Both sides of Taiwan Strait are Chinese, Chinese blood in the veins.  NBC 10-24-2020: Economically, Taiwan is dependent on Beijing.  Washington Post, 1-2-2017 noted " 83 percent Taiwanese chose bread (China's economy) over romance ("independence").  Hope there's a win-win solution ahead.     originally written at 10-29-2020 　        　 https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa  10-11 https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/   https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204800.shtml https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-says-newly-purchased-us-111753710.html  https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/26/us-state-department-to-allow-sale-of-hundreds-of-anti-ship-missiles-to-taiwan-amid-diplomatic-row/ https://www.businessinsider.com/sale-of-missiles-to-taiwan-could-frustrate-a-chinese-invasion-2020-10 https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/experts-say-taiwan-needs-more-homegrown-military-efforts-counter-china https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/#439bad0147f6 https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-20201008-grd2fews3ffg7gdc4zyhagafjq-story.html https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/tiny-taiwan-caught-middle-u-s-china-battle-supremacy-n1244521 https://www.newsweek.com/china-war-taiwan-peace-poll-1542735

　

Military Review  ―  Sept. ~ Oct. , 2020    /   ＵＳArmy University Press www.armyupress.army.mil/journals/military-review/english-edition-archives/September-October-2020/

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Military Review　paints a  picture ―  China's PLA will attack south-west coast of Taiwan, and land weaker-defense area - eastern Taiwan, southern Taiwan  　 　 　  ◆ 　　Why Would China Not Invade Taiwan Now?  /   Tim Willasey-Wilsey   Why Invade Now ? Why Not Invade Now ? The Trump administration has no appetite for overseas military adventures. Trump is not going to war with China, and not over Taiwan. He is far more interested in trade wars and economic advantage. whether PLA is capable of achieving a quick victory over Taiwan. There may never be another moment when the whole world is focused on managing an event of the scale of the coronavirus pandemic。 Though the Chinese are quintessentially patient, they are also demonstrably opportunistic a huge gamble for armed forces which have not been employed in combat during the careers of even their most senior officers. China could hardly be more globally unpopular than now. Much of it may be unfair but there will be plenty of time to improve diplomatic relations once Taiwan has been safely reunified The aircraft carriers and amphibious landing ships are still relatively new. A lot could go wrong Taiwan Relations Act fell far short of a guarantee to come to Taiwan’s assistance. Even President “Six Assurances”  made no mention of U.S. military intervention.  The Taiwanese will fight and fight hard. once reunified, pro-Western countries, like Japan and South Korea, will be more humbled and less likely to believe in the U.S. defense umbrella. the U.S. won’t want to get into a war over Taiwan; but there are many military options in cyber, South China Sea strikes, special forces, and other means unify the country in time for the centenary of the CCP in 2021 and long before that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2049. China has much more to lose internationally from economic sanctions  little chance that the U.S. would sail a carrier strike group into or near the Taiwan Strait now that the PLA Navy (PLAN) is equipped with quiet submarines the Chinese will crack down on Hong Kong, build their fleet, economy, and cyber for another decade, and make their move then against Taiwan—not now. 　 　 　 　 　 ◆ 　　Time Horizons Drive Potential Taiwan Cross-Strait Conflict   /   David An  a state will act based on its intentions, capabilities, and opportunities， time horizons。 converging time horizons drive China to be more aggressive toward Taiwan, shortening the timeline for unification, while at the same time driving the United States to be more willing to stand up to China’s aggression 　 U.S. intervention to assist Taiwan ？ Ｎｏ intervention security—Taiwan has been a loyal partner to the United States  not want to sacrifice its troops in another foreign conflict economics—Taiwan usually ranks as the tenth largest trading partner of the United States  avoid a direct kinetic conflict with nuclear-armed China regime type—Taiwan is a liberal constitutional democracy could escalate to frightening levels audience cost concerns ―  Japan, South Korea, and Australia will be more skeptical of U.S. commitment to them？  unit-level characteristics ―  the personal views of the U.S. leaders toward China and Taiwan at the time others that could intervene to assist Taiwan would most likely include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly the other NATO allies of the United States. Russia and North Korea might step in to help China 　 　 　 ◆ 　Deterring  the Dragon　Returning U.S. Forces to Taiwan　／　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Mills-Deterring-Dragon/  If the United States wants to maintain credible conventional deterrence against a PLA attack on Taiwan, it needs to consider basing troops in Taiwan. Ground forces based in Taiwan would not only be important for repelling a PLA invasion, but more importantly, they would act like what RAND calls a “tripwire”; that is, “smaller numbers of ground forces stationed to ensure that U.S. forces quickly become directly involved in a potential adversary invasion.”53 A small force would be economical and minimally antagonistic toward mainland China especially if it was only a rotational force. 　 　 ◆ 　Drive Them into the Sea　　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Dunn-Drive-Into-Sea/ 　 Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military operations. Success depends upon air and maritime superiority, the rapid buildup and sustainment of supplies onshore, and uninterrupted support. An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention. These stresses, combined with China’s combat force attrition and the complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency, even assuming a successful landing and breakout, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk.  what does America do when its forces arrive? Arriving in time to enforce a cease-fire is simply a means to delay losing. Just the credible threat of a U.S. Army corps capable of being deployed to Taiwan might deter China from starting an invasion; China might no longer be confident that the main effort will remain one between the PLA and the Taiwanese ground forces. And if deterrence fails, the corps will drive the enemy into the sea 　 　 　 　 ◆ 　New Opportunities amid Increasing Threats　　https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Setzekorn-Taiwan-US-Army/ 　 Due to the PLA downsizing and streamlining into a force of roughly 1.3 million ground force personnel, not all of whom can be deployed, Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity

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US Naval Institute, Proceedings,  2020-August ;  Forbes, 8-24-2020   Chinese military vs. Taiwanese military   https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was

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◆(1)  The 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making.  The PBSC decided in mid-December (2020) to place in motion Operation Red Province — to bring Taiwan back into China. ◆(2)  Non-government voices on Taiwan, orchestrated as a deception operation by Chinese intelligence services, now called for full independence, creating a predicate for Beijing to move on its legal claim.  The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions and then commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January. ◆(3)  Two days before U.S. presidential inauguration, a message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion... China’s own “little green men” — emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities.  A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid.  ◆(4)  PLA seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus.  Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships.  An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced. ◆(5)  China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” sent messages: “Don’t join in any international rebuke of China or suffer the consequences of reduced Chinese trade and investment.” Stock markets across the globe crashed on 19 January. ◆(6)  the National Security Advisor said, “This is not about whether we stand behind Taiwan—we do—but it looks like we may have been outmaneuvered. I don’t like it,"

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China-Taiwan War/Tension :  China sent numerous aircraft close to Taiwan and crossed the sensitive median line  during two days of drills     by Reuters (UK)   9-21-2020 https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL3N2GI0KE

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WHY IS TENSION RISING NOW? two US top officials visits in as many months, and the US  is planning major new arms sales to Taiwan. 　 WHAT ARE THE RISKS? 1)  Taiwan and China do not have an official dialogue mechanism, which could quickly spiral out of control. 2)  China may quickly overwhelm Taiwan with missile and cyber attacks before the US even has a chance to respond, though it is an open question whether Washington would, or could, come to Taipei’s aid. 　 HOW DO THE ARMED FORCES OF THE TWO SIDES COMPARE? Taiwan’s military is  dwarfed by China’s People’s Liberation Army 　 WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN A WAR BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA? missiles and air attacks,  cyberattacks , naval blockade to force surrender

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The Scary War Game Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again and Again  8-17-2020    by Real Clear Investigations  https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html
	1) Taiwan Defense Act ― questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon, which have received scant notice in the mainstream press. 2)  The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over.
Chn. attacks Taiwan	◆(1)  China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation” ◆(2)  A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ;  China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan. ◆(3)  American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles.  Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets. ◆(4)  American  submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships,  but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy ◆(5)  Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) ― would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops ◆(6)  The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports.  Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element. ◆(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.
US defends Taiwan	◆(1) The key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait.  American long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600 miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours” ◆(2)   A second component of a Taiwan defense would be space-based reconnaissance using artificial intelligence to locate enemy targets, which the LRASMs would hit; a third would be an American version of flooding the zone, with unmanned undersea drones that could fire torpedoes at Chinese landing craft. ◆(3)  If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”
PS	1 )  an array of economic, diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and actions. 2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric  – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan.

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The Diplomat , 9-13-2020    https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/the-end-of-strategic-ambiguity-in-the-taiwan-strait/     The End of Strategic Ambiguity: Back to the Future by The Diplomat , 9-13-2020

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◆ The most likely course of action is increased political warfare against the Taiwan democratic system. Previously,  influence operations designed to persuade, with a focus on developing Taiwanese businessmen in China into a CCP-friendly constituency. While the overall emphasis has shifted to destructive subversion.  infiltrating  ―  local civic organizations, the media, and the military,  to create paralysis and unrest to justify, and then assist with, an invasion. ◆ The most dangerous course of action ― an invasion, achieving a fait accompli of securing Taiwan capitulation prior to U.S. intervention.  To achieve this,  the first is an extension of political warfare techniques into the kinetic realm: system destruction warfare, meant to paralyze the opponent’s leadership,  the second is the integration of AI and algorithms into operations.   “Intelligent operations,” with an “algorithm game” to “quickly and accurately predict the situation on the battlefield” and seize the initiative.

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If China invades Taiwan ...  responses from US president Trump,  state secretary Pompeo
◆ FoxNews,  Newsweek, 9-22-2020	In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Trump too talked tough on the flashpoint, but declined to specify how he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait "They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems."
◆ FoxNews,  8-23-2020, Q: 1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors." 2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?	Trump : 1)  They're coming to this country.   2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,”  “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this"  "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it" It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing
◆ Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020	Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises. https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/   Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources
◆ FoxNews,  6-1-2020 　    QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?	SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/
◆  washingtonexaminer, 10-7-2020 in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene	SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan 　 ◆ Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020:   Pompeo:  U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china

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●   Forbes, 7-17-2020:   the Taiwanese military plans to let the Chinese get close  —  then lob thousands of missiles at them.  Taiwan's objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/17/if-china-invades-taiwan-could-target-shanghai-and-beijing-with-cruise-missiles/#438bd91230ff

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●   Bloomberg, 9-22-2020:  Taiwan president Tsai does have one major problem: The Communist Party is threatening her life, with its Global Times newspaper saying over the weekend she would be “wiped out” in a war if she violated China’s anti-secession law.   www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/china-s-war-rhetoric-pushes-taiwan-to-boost-u-s-economic-ties

●  The Hill, Hudson Org., 9-17-2020:  an assault on Taiwan would not end in a quick victory. Taiwan’s armed forces draw from a robust reservist pool; it knows its territory far better than its adversary and will receive unimpeachable civilian support in a conflict. To win, China must occupy and subjugate the entire island — and an insurgency, based in Taiwan’s mountainous center, is to be expected. While this is a fight China considers winnable, it must bring to bear all its capabilities.  China’s military is built to fight a short war, relying on long-range missiles and progressively layered defenses to isolate areas near the Chinese coastline. By raising the costs of American intervention, China seeks a political-military solution to its central strategic problem

https://www.hudson.org/research/16381-the-u-s-election-could-be-a-danger-for-taiwan-an-opportunity-for-china

●   Economist,10-9-2020:  China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...  Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky.  Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  

●   Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.  With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

●   Bloomberg, 10-8-2020:  Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,”  “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril "

●   Politico,10-8-2020: Taiwan’s not ready to defend itself...lack of defense capacity and their lack of depth...What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out”

●   Financial Times (UK),10-6-2020:  If Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers. China has a different playbook - coercion

●  Hong Kong Apple Daily ( 《蘋果動新聞》), 10-9-2020 :  China's PLA will attack Taiwan by Blitzkrieg or  lightning war to seal off and cut off the transportation (communication) way between Taiwan and Japan to avoid Taiwan's high-ranking officials running away and foreign country coming to rescue ; The better landing place for PLA large force will not be narrow Tamsui River or west coast, instead, very likely weak-defense east coast such as 宜蘭(YiLan) .  Once main force came, Taiwan is almost finished.  https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20201009/3HGWOL27GJDTZGS7GGYLDOJB3A/  by 台灣國防安全研究院國防資源與產業研究所長蘇紫雲、中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所兼任助理教授林穎佑，以及澳門軍事評論員黃東

●  Global Times , 10-9-2020: Taiwan’s military drills ‘a futile cover-up show’ against PLA operations.  The PLA has overwhelming military advantages over the island in terms of combat readiness of the troops, the advanced level of technology for weapons and equipment, numbers, tactics and strategies   https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202977.shtml

●  Wall Street Journal 8-30-2020: Fearing Hong Kong’s Fate, Taiwan Moves to Bolster Its Military Against China

●  Financial Times (UK), 10-1-2020  (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military    (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Chinese military superiority /  key:			contrast	Chinese military	Taiwanese military
100,000	active personnel		personnel	2m	163,000
50	combat-capable fixed-wing aircraft		aircraft	3,330	568
5	submarines		submarines	59	4
5	surface vessels above corvette size		vessels	107	26
200	main battle tanks		tanks	5,850	665
20	surface-to-surface missiles		missiles	603	12

● Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020:  The Taiwanese military is dwarfed by its Chinese counterpart  –  Taiwan has less than a fifth of China’s planes, a 10th of its armed forces personnel and just o.1% of its missiles. ● NIKKEI asia review (Japan) , 9-25-2020:  Militarily, nuclear-armed China dwarfs Taiwan and has more than 10 times the budget and soldiers. It is reportedly negotiating with Taiwan a new $7 billion deal on seven major weapon systems, including sea mines, missiles and drones. ●  aljazeera, 10-8-2020: China was engaged in a significant naval build-up probably not seen since Germany’s attempt to compete with Britain’s Royal Navy prior to WWI... to push US navy back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan”

●  Forbes, 8-24-2020: China Can Capture Taiwan In Three Days, Say Former U.S. Officials

●  Reuters, aljazeera, 9-22-2020: once Chinese aircraft were spotted Taiwanese fighters had just five minutes to scramble their fighters

       www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/taiwan-tells-china-airspace-incursions-rise-200922055823777.html

●  Express UK, 9-21-2020: Malcolm Davis, a former defence adviser, added the “probes” into Taiwan’s side of the line could be an effort to “provoke the Taiwanese air force to ‘shoot first’” which could justify further violence.

●  Forbes, 9-21-2020:  The air-launched SLAM-ER missiles and ground-launched Harpoon missiles arguably are the most important—and, to China, provocative—weapons in the current deal. “Taiwan is finally buying what it really needs to implement its asymmetric defense strategy,” Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University security expert, told The New York Times.

●  East Asia Forum, Based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University

      Taiwan’s security seems increasingly at risk. Taiwan’s real threat, however, is not in invasion but China’s mixture of sabre-rattling and integration-luring.

      Though a conventional war may not be imminent, there are still unresolved vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s security. A recent debate on whether a PLA invasion could be curbed demonstrates how Taiwan’s partisan division extends to defence strategy disagreement. Efforts to boost Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities will stall if China successfully erodes Taiwan’s morale through soft strategies.

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/09/12/cross-strait-integration-by-force-or-favour/

●  eurasian Times, 9-4-2020 : Forbes David Axe: the US's Chinese Military Power report missed the most important context by ignoring the extreme difficulty any army will have to face attempting an invasion of an island like Taiwan. Taiwan possesses a geographical advantage as the strait is stormy and the terrain between the likely landing zones and Taipei is rugged and mountainous.    eurasian Times, 8-15-2020 :Taiwan’s New ‘Training Jets’ Are Capable Bombers That Can Strike Deep Into China

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●  Express UK, 9-11-2020: CHINA has conducted large-scale military exercises in an air defence zone controlled by Taiwan, leading ministers there to hold an emergency press conference.  they were carried out on the Taiwanese side of what is known as the median line of the Taiwan Strait – an unofficial airspace boundary between Taiwan and China.  https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1334152/South-China-Sea-news-Taiwan-US-military-drills-peace-region-threat-world-war-3

●  Bloomberg, 7-30-2020: ”Global Times (Chn): China wants peace but “is fully capable of destroying all of Taiwan’s military installations within a few hours, before seizing the island shortly after. ...researchers:  While the People’s Liberation Army would seek to bombard the island with missiles and cyberattacks to quickly neutralize Taiwanese forces before they could fight back, the chances of pulling off such a comprehensive surprise assault are slim, ... Any failure to immediately knock out Taiwan’s forces, he wrote, would allow the island to repel an amphibious invasion or sustained bombing campaign...www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown

●   Sunday Guardian (UK) 6-27-2020: Should China conquer Taiwan, that would free up about 50% of total PLA strength for potential deployment to the current Western Theater Command, facing India.   "Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years":  by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.  https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started

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●   Forbes, 6-3-2020:   Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.

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●    L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster.

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●   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". ... (brief)

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●   Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities.   PS:  Taiwan's United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020:  so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only skin-deep ...

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●  Forbes, 7-17-2020:  the war could end quickly. Chinese rockets could pummel Taiwanese forces into submission...  The worst-case scenario is that the invasion gets hung up on Taiwan’s fortified island of Penghu ... the war drags out for many bloody weeks.

●   Apple Daily, editorial, 8-14-2020:  Taiwan military takes a very weird strategy:  Facing PLA's first wave strike, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels and caves, warships leave Taiwan, and await the US military comes to rescue, then they will return and join the war.  The commentator questions how can those fighter jets take off if the runways are bombed by PLA's bomber and missiles ?     tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/

ps: When studying in the US, I learnt from library that the highway can be served as war-time runway, so maybe those tunnels can be extended to highways nearby in case. 

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●  Forbes, 7-10-2020:  Failing to capture Penghu could, perhaps for a very long time, end Beijing’s reunification-by-force gambit 

●  Express UK, 9-14-2020:  Beijing’s sabre-rattling over Taiwan is hardly new, but … we’ve seen a significant stepping up of Chinese military activity and an intense propaganda effort to isolate Taiwan and assert political primacy  in the region.”a “pre-emptive effort to coerce Taiwan would be immensely risky for Xi, but leaders under pressure do risky things

●  Forbes Advocate, 9-13-2020:   China's military capabilities dwarf those of the island of 23 million in numerical terms, although any invasion of Taiwan would be complex and would carry major political risks  https://www.forbesadvocate.com.au/story/6922776/china-says-us-poses-threat-to-world-peace/?cs=5461 

●  US News , 9-20-2020: China's air force on Saturday put out a video showing its nuclear capable H-6 bombers, which have been involved in many Chinese fly-bys of Taiwan, exercising.  www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-20/taiwan-president-says-drills-show-china-is-threat-to-whole-region

●   Apple Daily, editorial, 7-6-2020:  a marine amphibious landing craft of Marine '99 army-brigade' ( main force of Taiwan military)  was overturned in an exercise recently, Taiwan military's training and combat capacity are suspicious if these accidents happened repeatedly.   China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion:  sudden increasing pressure to war preparedness and hasty work probably are main reasons resulting in many accidents and incidents happened in recent years.  China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion:  Due to Taiwan president making official inspection, the military combines 4 drills to one per year, and transforms Han Kuang Exercise to be a big show, which damage military training ,  high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission.
 www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv  ;  www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv   ;  

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●   China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

             Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019

★

	"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ... aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019  that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan, China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue. 　 The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare".   Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing.  (see pic. right) 　 usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.
◆  Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization  4-28-2020  https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2       April 24, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress. ◆  Chinese aircraft-carrier,  6-22-2020,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme 　 ◆  China Military Power report 2019  https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/China_Military_Power_FINAL_5MB_20190103.pdf       Core Chinese Military Capabilities: Today’s  PLA  is  still  far  from  being  able  to deploy large numbers of conventional forces globally, but China has developed nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities  that can reach potential adversaries across the globe.
pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany,  11-14-2020, 5-20-2020

 Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China.  Therefore, Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as annual report above.  (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school,  National ChungCheng University)

 ｐｉｃ：　Ｆｏｒ Strategic deterrence，Taiwan needs 500 pieces of  雲峰飛彈 missiles

   Will China strike on Taiwan ? 

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