Taiwan military, army


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News: ◆ CNBC, 8-5-2020: Taiwan is in a ‘delicate’ situation with China as military drills intensify... in the near-term, they do not have the capacity to really ‘retake’ Taiwan, ... over the years ... not a scintilla of evidence of flexibility on these kinds of core interest questions, and that’s what makes Taiwan so dangerous ◆ CNN, 8-5-2020: Taiwan has emerged as one of the focal points of the escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing ◆ SCMP , 8-5-2020 : Azar’s trip would inevitably trigger countermeasures from Beijing, including deployment of a military presence near Taiwan ◆ Foreign Policy 8-4-2020: CCP may be increasingly tempted to act against Taiwan. Helping to deter any such aggression doesn’t require nukes, but it should nonetheless be an urgent national security priority for Washington ◆ The Australian 8-4-2020: Xi has made it clear that taking back Taiwan would be the crowning achievement in his vision to restore China’s place as a great power. we tend to underestimate the importance the US puts on the defence of Taiwan. ◆ VOA 8-3-2020: Lawmakers Introducing Bill After Bill are sighting Taiwan because China cannot strike it without risking military conflict ◆ Sunday Guardian, 8-2-2020: The Quad must strengthen and support Taiwan ◆ Bloomberg 7-30-2020: Now fears are growing that Xi wants to cement his place alongside Mao and Deng by conquering Taiwan... Of the many US-China conflicts right now — none is more dangerous over the long haul than that involving Taiwan ◆ Express (UK), 7-29-2020: Harvard prof. Ezra Vogel : Unfortunately, there is possibility of an armed confrontation. Nobody wants it, and everybody would lose if a war erupts. ◆ Washington Post, 7-22-2020: in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. But as a precondition for talks, China demanded that Tsai acknowledge the “one China” principle... Inside China, the government has faced growing calls from hawkish military pundits and nationalist commentators to grasp the current strategic window to seize Taiwan ◆ Daily Mail, 7-22-2020: China has made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan. ◆ Bloomberg 7-20-2020: Beijing is no doubt waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. presidential election before taking any more significant actions. ◆ National Interest 7-18-2020: This ( attack on Taiwan) will be much more difficult and costly than Hong Kong has been, but ... for these people, that cost is deemed as necessary and they will gladly pay it. Unless the United States binds itself to protect the independence of Taiwan on pain of war, Taiwan is next. ◆ Express (UK) 7-18-2020: MILITARY tensions between China and US escalated further today, after a strong ally of President Xi warned that Beijing would invade US-backed Taiwan "early next year" ◆ Forbes, 7-17-2020: the war could end quickly. Chinese rockets could pummel Taiwanese forces into submission... The worst-case scenario is that the invasion gets hung up on Taiwan’s fortified island of Penghu ... the war drags out for many bloody weeks. ◆ Washington Post 7-15-2020: President Trump’s policy of international retreat and disregard for allies, alongside Xi’s growing assertiveness and expansionism, put Taipei at the intersection of the two ominous trends ... Biden is committed to the status quo in Taiwan ◆ Financial Times 7-12-2020: (Taiwan) Politicians are afraid to discuss these issues (reservists) with the public because they believe our people are not willing to sacrifice ... www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd ◆ Forbes, 7-10-2020: Failing to capture Penghu could, perhaps for a very long time, end Beijing’s reunification-by-force gambit ◆ Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Given how little Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong has cost it to date, we are concerned that Beijing will draw the wrong conclusions about the costs of future coercion against Taiwan ◆ FoxNews 7-8-2020: The passage of a national security law on Hong Kong has put Taiwan on edge, with pro-democracy activists fearing that Beijing will soon have the self-ruled island in its crosshairs ◆ Washington Post 7-7-2020: HK national security law could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan ... China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy ◆ National Interest 7-6-2020: China and Taiwan Could Be Headed Towards a Showdown... Will it be easy to defend Taiwan? No. ... attempt great feats “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” ◆ New York Times, 7-2-2020: The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing. Yet the two sides are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise. ◆ New York Times, 6-26-2020: When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ... American warships through the South China Sea and stepped up support for Taiwan and its military ... the possibility of confrontation would increase as the U.S. presidential campaign heated up ◆ foreign affairs, 6-18-2020: A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ... ◆ Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning
　

●●

◆ NewsWeek, 7-21-2020:

Once military conflict breaks out -

A slight plurality of 31 percent

assigned blame to

Chinese President Xi Jinping,

while 30 percent of respondents

said they believed both Xi and

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen

were responsible

and 24 percent blamed Tsai.

◆ Eurasian Times
7-9-2020:

The Tsai authority knows that

Taiwan cannot compete with

the mainland on its own,

and therefore turns to Washington

and is willing to be used.
Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’

Of The US.

● NHK Japan, 7-20-2020:Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has warned that the island will face intensifying pressure from China.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200719_18/

● Washington Post 7-22-2020: the Taiwanese fm : urging "extreme caution" in the island's dealings with a Chinese
leadership in Beijing that he described as both increasingly emboldened and insecure.

● Daily Mail, 7-22-2020: Foreign Minister Wu: 'The threat is on the rise' !!
intrusions 'happened almost every day' in June and were 'much more frequent' than what the government had disclosed to the public.
China has also made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan. ( ps: media didn't report it's on an almost daily basis since Jun. )

● CNN 2-19-2020 exclusive interview with Taiwanese president Tsai I. W. : "What we are expecting is, after withstanding

the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" ....

"Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" ...

Therefore, Taiwan's fears soar as China repeats threat to INVADE the small island nearby.

◆ Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports:
In Jan. 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered
an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for
unification talks or face annexation
by force. However, Taiwan's government was
tight-lipped about this ultimatum, otherwise pro-Independence Tsai I. W. may not continue in
presidential office in 2020, because,
according to National Interest (6-16-2020):
more than 60.3 percent of the respondents
opposed Taiwan's independence
if it is followed by
China’s military invasion...

●

● imminent danger of Chinese invasion
USA Today 7-5-2020: The Chinese military recently held drills simulating the capture of Taiwanese territory. Communist officials and military officers have also threatened war with Taiwan in recent weeks. Reuters 5-22-2020: In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word “peaceful” in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades, an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral. Economist, 5-29-2020: China has stepped up war games around Taiwan and its nationalists have been braying online for an invasion.

Reuters 2-26-2020: Beijing ... attack the island as a way of relieving “internal pressure” ... Chinese public opinion believes people in Taiwan lack sympathy about China’s virus outbreak... Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned. Financial Times, 6-3-2020: if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force. Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent. Express (UK) 6-17-2020: World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies / Many viewed this ( China dispatch aircraft carriers for months-long war games in the South China Sea) as a prelude for broader, more aggressive actions against Taiwan. "If Taiwan secessionists insist on secession, military exercises can turn into action any time.” Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: A Chinese assault on the island is neither imminent nor inevitable.

● S.O.S. from Taiwan

(headline of Taiwan News)

◆ FoxNews, 5-26-2020: Taiwan Foreign minister warns Taiwan is next on Chinese agenda ( military actions ) and asks for international support.
TTV (Taiwan), 5-27-2020: Taiwan president: keep our eyes peeled for China's military actions. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcHp-1j6Lg

◆ FoxNews, 6-1-2020 https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?

SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments.

●●

●

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 8-2-2020 ( upper items are ads. )

◆ pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on US Bing, 7-26-2020, 6-28-2020, 6-3-2020, 5-30-2020

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (TW), 7-26-2020, 5-20-2020

◆ pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" (Chinese version"台灣軍隊") on Bing, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-8-2020, 6-2-2020

ps: TTV 7-3-2020: a marine amphibious landing craft (similar to pic. above) was overturned in an exercise

●

Taiwanese military VS. communist China's military [ People's Liberation Army ]

●

Taiwan military vs. China military
Taiwan military	assessments
personnel ( soldiers, officials )	◆ Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell. US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system. ◆ armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers ◆ few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled / Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/ ◆ Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... / New York times, 5-18-2017 ◆ The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000. / Wikipedia, May 2020 ◆ Only 310 thousands out of 770 thousands of qualified reservists were called up for short-term military training, from 2015 to 2017, 61 thousands of those escaped the duty / Formosa TV news, 8-3-2018, storm.mg 10-15-2019 ◆ only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group / Financial Times, 7-12-2020 ◆ Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men. / Hong Kong Free Press 7-15-2020
strategy	◆ To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” / Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020 ◆ so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only at surface-level / United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020 (ps: the US should work with Taiwan to develop asymmetric military capabilities / Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020 )
firepower	◆ Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan. / Forbes, 6-3-2020 ◆ China has ｎｕｃｌｅａｒ　ｂｏｍｂ，Neutron bomb， hydrogen bomb, Taiwan has none of those. / Next TV news, 5-8-2020 ◆ Three Taiwanese presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) squandering those "bonus for peace" military budget and underestimating the demand of national defense, lead to shortage of arms-deal budget. / United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020 ◆ Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 , China PLA No. 3 / Global FirePower, 2020 ◆ A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... / New York times, 11-4-2017
military logistics system	◆ Taiwan lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments / United Daily (聯合報社評), opinion, 5- 7- 2020
morale	◆ Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... / New York times, 5-18-2017 ◆ Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... / Financial Times 5-19-2020
combat experience	◆ The military combines 4 drills to one per year for battle and propaganda-show, affecting training effect , high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission. / ref to China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv 蘭寧利》; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv
discipline	◆ The practice of judicial system has proved not as good as military criminal code to educate and train the military discipline. A soldier's 洪仲丘 'torture to death" sparks massive protest around 2013, the military court was hence no longer to judge the troops . / The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial
budget	◆ High personnel expense pushes aside the logistics and maintenance budget, the govt. needs to plan special budge to purchase arms. / The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial
ps	VICE, 7-24-2020: With increasing Chinese modernization, Taiwan’s advantages decline — and the numbers are telling. To Taiwan’s 140,000 ground troops, China has 1 million. To Taiwan’s 23 Coast Guard ships, China has 248. Taiwan has no bombers, while China has 450. While Taiwan has 350 fighter jets, China has 1,500. All in all, China’s defense budget is 17 times the size of Taiwan’s, with much of the former spent on developing the capability of unifying Taiwan with the mainland by force. The capability to do harm and the intention to do harm. China has both.

●

FOCUS Taiwan's reservists

★ Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020

	◆ Politicians in our country are afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe our people are not willing to sacrifice... Full text: www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd
	◆ Taipei’s best bet at deterring an invasion is to bolster its reserves — a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training.
	◆ 2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...
	◆ Many reservists have been called up for just a few days every two years, a level of training Mr Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA

★ Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020 Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong? China Tests the Limits of Impunity

◆ The Pentagon should further assist Taiwan’s military in reforming its reserve and mobilization systems, which are critical to the institution’s long-term strength
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong

★ Hong Kong Free Press, 7-15-2020: Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men. The short length of time means it is difficult to learn much beyond basic training.

。https://hongkongfp.com/2020/07/15/security-law-taiwan-must-be-wary-it-could-be-the-next-target/
　

★

★ Han Kuang exercises, a major annual event for Taiwan armed forces

	media	analysis & comments (brief)
UK 　　 US	NBC News, 7-17-2020	Although Taiwan's military is well trained and equipped with mostly U.S.-made hardware, China has huge numerical superiority. 。https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-conducts-major-annual-military-exercise-amid-rising-china-tensions-n1234023
	Associated Press, Yahoo News, 7-16-2020	One helicopter crashed when returning to base from another drill, killing the pilot and co-pilot. 　 https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-holds-military-drills-against-053222062.html
	Reuters, 7-16-2020	F-16 and domestically made Ching-kuo fighter jets launched strikes and tanks raced across inland scrub, firing shells to destroy targets on the beach. China is adding advanced equipment such as stealth fighters and new ballistic missiles.
China	Global Times, 7-16-2020, 7-21-2020	The military mishap during the Han Kuang drills indicates that Taiwan's most important war games are becoming increasingly unrealistic. It also shows a widening military gap across the Taiwan Straits. 　 The counter-landing drill was designed to simulate PLA tactics, the exercise started with Taiwan military's fighter jets attacking the landing fleet, with a warship as support, after which artillery forces, attack helicopters and tanks fired and eventually "effectively stopped the hostile forces' landing operation," Taiwan media reported. 　 After watching the drill, military observers soon pointed out that its setting is nearly impossible, because it assumed Taiwan would automatically hold air superiority, Taiwan's weapons and equipment would remain intact prior to the counter-landing operation, and its troops would not suffer losses during the battle. According to a computer combat simulation published by the Chinese mainland's Naval and Merchant Ships magazine in May, as well as many other military analysts, a reunification-by-force operation by the PLA will very likely start with intensive waves of missile and rocket attacks that would neutralize most of Taiwan's air defense capabilities, and PLA warplanes would then seize air superiority and sweep enemies, with PLA warships, including two aircraft carriers, also engaging in naval battles. PLA landing operations would take place after this first round of assault, meaning that the scenario Taiwan military simulated will not happen, because any weapons and troops they deployed in the drills will be mostly destroyed before their counter-landing operation, Song Zhongping, a military expert, said the exercises are a naive and meaningless show, as they were set under ideal conditions. 　 https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194770.shtml; https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195064.shtml

● Forbes, 7-17-2020: the Taiwanese military plans to let the Chinese get close — then lob thousands of missiles at them. Taiwan's objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/17/if-china-invades-taiwan-could-target-shanghai-and-beijing-with-cruise-missiles/#438bd91230ff

● Bloomberg, 7-30-2020: ”Global Times (Chn): China wants peace but “is fully capable of destroying all of Taiwan’s military installations within a few hours, before seizing the island shortly after. ...researchers: While the People’s Liberation Army would seek to bombard the island with missiles and cyberattacks to quickly neutralize Taiwanese forces before they could fight back, the chances of pulling off such a comprehensive surprise assault are slim, ... Any failure to immediately knock out Taiwan’s forces, he wrote, would allow the island to repel an amphibious invasion or sustained bombing campaign...www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown

● Sunday Guardian (UK) 6-27-2020: Should China conquer Taiwan, that would free up about 50% of total PLA strength for potential deployment to the current Western Theater Command, facing India. "Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years": by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months. https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started

●

● Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.

●

● L.A. Times, 6-9-2020: The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster.

●

● Forbes, 6-7-2020: China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". ... (brief)

●

● Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities. PS: Taiwan's United Daily , editorial, 6-6-2020: so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only skin-deep ...

●

● Apple Daily, editorial, 7-6-2020: a marine amphibious landing craft of Marine '99 army-brigade' ( main force of Taiwan military) was overturned in an exercise recently, Taiwan military's training and combat capacity are suspicious if these accidents happened repeatedly. China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion: sudden increasing pressure to war preparedness and hasty work probably are main reasons resulting in many accidents and incidents happened in recent years. China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion: Due to Taiwan president making official inspection, the military combines 4 drills to one per year, and transforms Han Kuang Exercise to be a big show, which damage military training , high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission.
www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv ; www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv ;

●

● China's Military Power Report / annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019

★


	"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ... aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019 that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan, China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue. 　 The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare". Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing. (see pic. right) 　 usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.
◆ Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization 4-28-2020 https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2 April 24, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress. ◆ Chinese aircraft-carrier, 6-22-2020, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme 　 ◆ China Military Power report 2019 https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/China_Military_Power_FINAL_5MB_20190103.pdf Core Chinese Military Capabilities: Today’s PLA is still far from being able to deploy large numbers of conventional forces globally, but China has developed nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities that can reach potential adversaries across the globe.

Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China. Therefore, Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as annual report above. (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school, National ChungCheng University)

● United Daily (聯合報社評), opinion, 5- 7- 2020 "國軍「官不聊生」實況" https://udn.com/news/story/11091/4547068?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2

Taiwan military lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments , which results in all kinds of corrupt practices, such as soldiers/officers under the table imported stuffs from outsiders, kept equipments on the shelves to avoid damages, or made fake check list ....... for years, Taiwan military authority invested logistics sources far from needed. (國軍長年對後勤資源的投注，距離理想狀況差太遠。) ● Apple Daily, editorial, 5-10-2020: Taiwan's military logistics system is a hot potato, no one wants to touch it. (國軍後勤體制是燙手的痼疾)

●

● New York times, 5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

●

● New York times, 5-18-2017: For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States. Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue. Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals/

/ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion ( ps: China's Baidu, 10-15-2017: Taiwanese reservists 3 million in total; Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.

●

	nuclear bomb	neutron bomb	hydrogen bomb
countries	US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Israel, India, N. Korea, UK, France	US, Russia, China, India, France	US, Russia, China, France, UK, N. Korea

ｓｏｕｒｃｅ：　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI ＂年代向錢看＂Next TV news, 5-8-2020

pic. left: Ａｔ　５－７－２０２０，　Taiwan Intelligence chief replied a law-maker with phrase :

Taiwan should pursue good fortune and avoid disaster once military conflict between China and the US occurring

in the western Pacific near Taiwan, we won't get in the trouble water ...
　

● Washington Post, 5-21-20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need to expand China's nuclear
and ballistic missile arsenal after the State Department published a paper arguing for the fitting of low-yield
nuclear warheads onto submarine-launched missiles.

●ｔｈｅ　ｅｓｓｅｎｃｅ　ｏｆ　Ｃｈｉｎａ　ｕｎｉｆｉｃａｔｉｏｎ　ｉｓｓｕｅ　ｉｓ　＂　Ｃｈｉｎａ　ｃｏｎｆｒｏｎｔｉｎｇ　ｔｈｅ　ＵＳ＂　

ｐｉｃ right：　both Ｃｈｉｎａ　ａｎｄ　ｔｈｅ　ＵＳ　ｏｗｎ　ｎｕｃｌｅａｒ　ｂｏｍｂ，Neutron bomb， hydrogen bomb

（　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI ）

 ｐｉｃ：　Ｆｏｒ Strategic deterrence，Taiwan needs 500 pieces of  雲峰飛彈 missiles

雲峰飛彈 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

● South China Morning Post, 7-11-2020: Missiles are a key element of Taiwan’s defence strategy,
Taiwan has a stockpile of missiles that by some estimates is the world’s biggest in terms of number per unit of area. the Taipei-based China Times newspaper has put the total at more than 6,000.
brief : https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3092791/taiwan-missile-tech-aimed-keeping-pla-attack-bay

● Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons.

Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon. “The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that can survive an
initial Chinese attack and be resilient and lethal for weeks or months,” according to Scott Harold, an analyst at RAND, a California think tank.

● Voice of America, 5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out already
with surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles and 66 aircraft in the past.

● South China Morning Post (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric)
Taiwanese missiles are increasing in range and are capable of striking cities in inner China, including strategic targets
　

● The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020:
Former Chinese military general 喬良 being interviewed by South China Morning Post, and Hong Kong
media (紫荊雜誌 Bauhinia Magazine...) concluded that China can't expect "Peaceful reunification" any more, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force
(「文統無望、只能武統」), when the right time (China-US arm wrestling game done) comes, Chinese army will kill any one on their way,
no matter monk or Buda. The Chinese govt. responded that There is no room for negotiations when it comes to China's reunification.

● Liberty Times, 7-29-2020: The PLA can't defeat Taiwan military within 72 hours, but it's hard to tell once more than about 5000 special agents / sleepers in the shadow join the war. /   林保華 column writer
Formosa TV, 2-25-2019: Taipei mayor Ko: American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.
CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week.
The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
Global Times, Mar 2018: Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.

●

● Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 ：The 1st step for Taiwanese military reform is HONESTY ( 國軍改革從誠實開始)
Taiwan navy under fire for letting sailors infected with coronavirus into community (South China Morning Post, 4-21-2020), Taiwan will quarantine 700 sailors after three came down with the coronavirus following a mission to a nearby Pacific island. (New York Post, 4-18-20)
About Taiwan Navy's 'Friendly Fleet''s story, no matter declassified or easy-to-master info. , Taiwan' s military issued different versions within one day, even played a slapstick show - slapping face each other. The public strongly questioned their honesty. The military failed to handle small risk like this, how can we trust their ability to face a war. (brief) ● UDN (聯合報社論)／十人一口罩 , editorial 4- 21- 2020: In average, Taiwanese government allocated one face mask to ten soldiers before the infection event, how to assure army's combat capability and basic quality ??
● Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 5-1-2020 ：Since taking enlisting-system, Taiwan military always failed to recruit enough number of soldiers, the quality of candidates to join the military- school examinations is not as good as expected...

●

Why does Beijing keep sending military aircrafts into Taiwan's airspace ?
　

◆ National Interest,
6-27-2020
in an overt attempt to gather intelligence, conduct reconnaissance missions, and intercept U.S planes in the region.

◆ Global Times,
6-28-2020

　
the PLA operations from both the east and southwest of Taiwan indicate that the PLA is training to suppress the potential US and Japanese reinforcements coming from Guam and the Ryukyu Islands through the Miyako Strait east of Taiwan and through the Bashi, Balintang, and Babuyan channels southwest of Taiwan. The PLA could use these operations to effectively lockdown the area from foreign forces while ensuring that Taiwan's forces cannot escape...

　

◆ New York Times, 6-26-2020
China’s Military Provokes Its Neighbors, but the Message Is for the United States... When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...
　

◆ EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020
many missions speculatively aimed at intercepting US jets flying near the island.
　

◆ Express (UK), 6-30-2020
Observers claimed the intrusion was both for practice and to caution the US against defending Taiwan.
　

　

●

China's strategy of attacking Taiwan
	type	English	Chinese
1	cyber warfare	PLA launchs cyber attacks, to penetrate CPU of Air Force Air Defense and Missile Command (Taipei), Republic of China Armed Forces Joint Operations Command Center (Taipei), etc.	網路攻擊, 入侵中央控制電腦, 劍指防空指揮系統, 三軍衡山所等
2	‘unrestricted’ fire-power warfare	PLA Rocket Forcetroops bombing like heavy rains the entire Taiwan	火箭軍彈雨轟台
3	marine war	PLA aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines attack Eastern Taiwan and paralyze 佳山基地 ( main air force base )	航空母艦戰群, 核潛艇, 進攻台灣東部, 癱瘓佳山基地
4	economic warfare	Cutting off marine traffic to Southern China sea, etc	截斷海上交通線
5	invasion of remote islands	Invasion of Kinmen(金門), Pratas, Itu Aba Island / Taiping Island (太平島)	攻奪外島
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIrQ2krhTE Next TV, 5-26-2020
The SUN, UK, 5-25-2020 (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11703654/china-deploys-aircraft-carriers-stoke-tensions-us-warning-new-cold-war/) in the China's state-controlled Naval and Merchant Ships Magazine: In around four minutes, Taiwan’s air power is badly damaged and those Taiwanese aircraft that have already taken off, will be shot down with S400 missiles. "After nearly two hours … all anti-air defence bases are destroyed, and most of Taiwan’s warplanes are damaged. What’s awaiting them is the second round of attacks after dawn."

●

● United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp. China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

●

● ◆ Formosa TV, 2-25-2019: Taipei mayor Ko: some American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.
     ◆ CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week. ps: The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
     ◆ Global Times, Mar 2018: Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.

●

● Global FirePower, 2020 : Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2. Russia 3. Chn 4. India 5. Japan 6. S Korea 16. Indonesia 17. Saudi Arabia 19. Australia 22. Vietnam 23. Thai 25. N korea 26. TW 35. Myanmar 44. Malaysia 45. UAE 46. Banladesh 48. Philippines 51. Singapore ). In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18. However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan; Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc.

●

● New York times, 5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

●

Will China strike on Taiwan ?

● FEARS soar ●

Express (UK), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan. Express (UK) 6-10-2020: South China Sea crisis ― Taiwan invasion fears soar. Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest ) express.co.uk 5-30-2020: Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring Taiwan. Financial Times 5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone. Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China. https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d The SUN, UK, 5-25-2020: ... the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland. The New York Times at 11-4-2017 noted that Taiwan’s historical advantages ( geography and the US support ) in deterring a potential attack has been “eroded or negated” in that Chinese military is "more potent".

●

	◆ foreign affairs, 6-18-2020: A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ...
	◆ Ian Easton on Taipei Times, 7-27-2020: if Washington signals its resolve to defend Taiwan, the CCP could lash out. Knowing that risk, American leaders avoid it. This kind of short-sighted behavior is like a cruise line captain steering his ship north, into iceberg country, to avoid patches of rough water in the south...Wars have occurred only when ambitious dictators saw American indecision and miscalculated ...That’s why, in the 2020s, Xi Jinping (習近平) is probably going to invade Taiwan if nothing major changes. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/07/27/2003740606
	◆ New York Times, 7-2-2020: The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say
	◆ Bloomberg, 6-24-2020: We may well see a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait before the decade's out.
	◆ LOWY institute 7-9-2020: Xi isn’t such a realist when it comes to Taiwan. Beijing views Taiwan in largely political terms – preoccupied with “the great trend of history” towards unification.
	◆ USA Today 7-5-2020: Taiwan has never been more important to American interests.
◆◆◆	◆ Reuters 5-22-2020: In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word "peaceful" in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades, an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral.
	◆ Washington Post, 5-30-2020: China vows to 'smash' any Taiwan independence move as Trump weighs sanctions.
	◆ Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Beijing were to interpret ... coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ ) ◦
	◆ Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-7-2020 : Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory.
	◆ Financial Times, 6-3-2020: if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force. Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent.
	◆ Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020: by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan, peaceful or non-peaceful unification, but as Taiwan is expected to be “defiant…military action will be the only solution.” Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.
	◆ Express (uk), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan. Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest )
	◆ National University of Singapore visiting scholar Drew Thompson on《自由亞洲電台》, SETN, NextTV, 6-4-2020: A war in Taiwan Strait will break out within 5 years ... China strikes Taiwan around 2024. (「台海5年內必戰」「侵台時間大概在2024年」)
	◆ The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 : Beijing’s red line would be Taiwan declaring independence.
	◆ EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020: the PLA troops have high war readiness in all fronts, but despite India-China border tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, the risk of a full-scale war remains very low thanks to the PLA’s strategic deterrence.
	◆ The bulwark 6-24-2020: If Taiwanese independence were ever formally recognized by the United States, the CCP would almost certainly issue military threats and send naval vessels into the strait––whatever was necessary to bring the Taiwanese to heel.
	◆ VICE, 7-24-2020: there is a slim chance that China’s military will cross the Taiwan Strait anytime soon. facing a Chinese party congress in 2022 that will determine the renewal of his chairmanship of the party—Taiwan could become a bargaining chip
	◆ The diplomat 6-3-2020: the 3 flashpoints (one is Taiwan) that could turn a us-china cold war hot
	◆ NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
	◆ Washington Monthly 3-11-2020 : internal pressures within Chinese politics may drive PRC authorities to act recklessly before the 2022 party conference, in which Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term as the country’s president.
	◆ The Guardian UK, 5-20-2020: While analysts believe an invasion is not likely, Chinese state media have been quick to point out China’s military might. “What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength,” said an editorial from the state-run Global Times, published immediately after Tsai’s speech.
	◆ Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: calls for “reunification by force” were growing on the mainland ...
	◆ People's Daily (China), 5-24-2020 : Chinese PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
	◆ Singapore's The Straits Times, 5-20-2020: China now has the strength to "overwhelm the Taiwan military and deter the US military". warned by Global Times.
	◆ USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049.
	◆ Freebeacon 5-17-2018 : 2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan ...
	◆ The China Times (中時) editorial, 5-23-2020: Reunification by PLA force will not come on stage immediately, but some accidental events may happen in the future. The China Times, editorial, 5-24-2020 has same view-point.
◆◆◆	◆ The Liberty Times (自由時報), editorial, 5-25-2020 : Communist China's new strategy will take hard line as principal axis against Taiwan...。Communist China's pressure will be stronger and stronger。
	◆ L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020 ( references )：　Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island. Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent.
	◆ Annual Report to US Congress ( Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC ), 8-17-2018: Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force
	◆ South China Morning Post, "紫荊雜誌" (Bauhinia Magazine), Hong Kong internet media, The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020: Former PLA general 喬良 concluded that "Peaceful reunification" is hopeless, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force (「文統無望、只能武統」). Taiwan issue is, in essence, China-USA issue, when the right time ( China-US arm wrestling game done ) comes, Chinese army will kill any one no matter monks or Buda, on their way. Bloomberg 6-24-2020: 喬良 :an invasion of Taiwan could be catastrophic for China: Even if the US doesn't join the war...
	◆ Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior...
	◆ The Times, 6-4-2020: "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order "。/ UK former FP Jeremy Hunt
	◆ Economist 5-28-2020: America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong
	◆ Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News, Liberty Times (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned that the lack of international sanctions may lead Beijing into believing that it could overtake Hong Kong and Taiwan without consequences. (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942917 )
	◆ The Times, "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order ", 6-4-2020: 若遲早要發生軍事衝突，不如先下手為強。因為台灣在解放軍的飛彈射程內，且孤立主義的川普總統干預外國事務的可能性大減。/ 英國前外相 Jeremy Hunt
	◆ The Trumpet, 6-29-2020: In the months ahead, we should expect to see China continue using disruption, isolation and constraint in its Taiwan policy... today, with America weakening, and with China understanding that time is no longer on its side with Taiwan
	◆ L.A. Times 6-9-2020: HK Univ.: Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty.
	◆ CATO institute, The American Conservative, 6-8-2020 : If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go.
	◆ John Bolton : (Taiwan could be the next ) Taiwan was right near the top of the list, and would probably stay there as long as Trump remained President, not a happy prospect... (Jun. 2020)。 Washington Post: 10-18-2019 " Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria Could Taiwan be the next ": Could an unscripted phone call between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping greenlight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan Given Trump's impulsive nature, that chilling scenario — and its baleful ramifications — can't be ruled out
	◆ Global Times, 6-30-2020: US using Taiwan as ‘last card’ may only speed up reunification...PLA aircraft could fly over island if US invites Taiwan military for exercise
	◆ Apple Daily (蘋果日報 ) 8-18-2018, headline news - US report warns China signals its readiness for unification by military force ― anytime.
	◆ Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)
	◆ United Daily (聯合報), 8-18-2018 : China still seek unification by force - Taiwan losing military edge. China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan. ps: Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.
	◆ The Interpreter , The LOWY Institute ( think tank in Australia ), 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security. Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.　https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard
	◆ CGTN 6-22-2020: China's the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council; Chinese P.M. Lee ( 5-28-2020 ): "We are willing to strive for peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and greatest efforts.", "Chinese don't fight Chinese".
	◆ SCMP, 7-22-2020: The PLA will definitely use force to take Taiwan back if the US provokes Beijing, because foreign force intervention is one of the three taboos listed by the Anti-Secession Law” in China ... Xi may plan to achieve his goal in the next five to 10 years, but current tensions with the US may push him “to speed up the process of reunification”
	◆ Taiwan's intelligence chief told a law-maker that the probability of China attacking Taiwan at this moment is up to 60~70% ... / SETN 3-26-2020
◆◆◆	◆ If some day the democracy and freedom in Taiwan becomes a model for the world, it will be more difficult for PLA to attack Taiwan and kill Taiwanese.

●

How to avoid a war in Taiwan Strait ?

Economist 5-29-2020: a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked...... America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. America's allies should echo that, loudly. (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong) Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior... NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.

News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade. Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Beijing were to interpret ... coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ ) The Hill (USA), 6-16-2020: China's Anti-Secession Law (ASL) that purportedly provided a “legal” basis for China to attack Taiwan, not only if it declared formal independence but also if it simply took too long to accept Chinese Communist rule. ( https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan )

News: ◆ Daily Express (UK) 7-21-2020: WAR will break out between China and the US in the South China Sea if Beijing violates the alliance agreement between America and Taiwan ◆ TIME, 7-22-2020: President Xi Jinping pursues an increasingly assertive foreign policy, leading to speculation he may attempt a military confrontation in the region ◆ Tokyo Review 7-25-2020: Taiwan is where Japan would have to draw the line◆ Washington Examiner, 7-22-2020:　Beijing might try to seize one of the smaller outlying islands in the straits, as a way to force Taiwanese leaders to choose between risking a major conflict and conceding the territory to China’s control ◆ Express (UK) 7-15-2020: China threat: Beijing plotting massive territorial gains ... poses a major challenge for NATO, with Taiwan a looming flashpoint ◆ New York Times, 6-21-2020: It’s a quite deliberate Chinese strategy to try to maximize what they perceive as being a moment of distraction and the reduced capability of the United States to pressure neighbors ◆ FoxNews, 6-23-2020: (US) Navy brings massive carrier power to Taiwan Strait, SCS ◆ Express (UK) 6-23-2020: FEARS of a World War 3 have been ignited once again ... China: US warships have repeatedly trespassed into Chinese territorial and crossed the Taiwan Straits... ◆ Express, 7-2-2020: China’s grand expansion plan laid bare as Taiwan told: ‘You’re next!’ ◆ Express (UK), 6-12-2020: World War 3 alert / a Chinese military plane crossed an unofficial airspace boundary in Taiwan Strait after a missile-intercept drill ... Taiwan sovereignty regarded by int'l community as a major potential flashpoint ◆ Express (UK) 6-13-2020: China WW3 threat: Beijing military insider exposes how war could soon break out with US ◆ Express (UK) 6-16-2020 23:08 Tue : US and China naval vessel nearly collide escalating ‘conflict risk in South China Sea’ ◆ Express (UK) , 6-17-2020: World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies ◆ New York Times, Reuters, etc 6-23-2020: Taiwan raps China for military activity, says it should fight virus instead. Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang told reporters that "Thanks for China's flattering and praise" ("太抬舉我了") after China making the remarks "Su viciously attacked the mainland, attempted to stir up confrontation across the Strait, and deliberately confused 'Taiwan independence' and Taiwan" (CGTN 6-22-2020). https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/taiwan-raps-china-for-military-activity-says-it-should-fight-virus-instead ◆ Reuters 6-18-2020: Chinese fighter jets buzz Taiwan again, stoking tensions ◆ Voice of America, Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: A former U.S. defense official told VOA that last week's flight by a U.S. Navy aircraft showed the U.S. does not consider Taiwan to be part of Chinese territory. ◆ Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-20-2020 : J10 approached Taiwan ... a sign of rising cross-strait tensions as the island deepens its relationship with the U.S. ... on the alert for an unintended military clash ◆ Reuters 6-19-2020: China's air force approached Taiwan on Friday for the fourth time in four days, as China steps up manoeuvres near the island. ◆ Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: Former national security adviser wrote that Trump often downplayed US commitments to Taiwan ◆ Daily Sabah (Turkey), 6-22-2020: Chinese air force including at least one bomber and J10 jet approach Taiwan (ps: 6 times within 7 days since 6-16) ◆ CGTN 6-22-2020: China's The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: it ( the use of force ) is targeted at the interference by external forces and a very small number of separatists and their secessionist activities。 ◆ Newsweek, 6-22-2020: China, Taiwan protest Jappan's renaming islands area in East China Sea ◆ Voice of America, 6-24-2020: China Sends 8 Military Planes into Taiwan Airspace. They’re not Targeting just Taiwan ( ps: targeting the US ) ◆ South China Morning Post 6-24-2020: Risk of military conflict between US and China higher than ever... ◆ Voice of America, 6-24-2020, 6-25-2020: China Sends 8 military Planes into Taiwan’s Airspace Seen as Warning to US https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/chinese-planes-in-taiwan-s-airspace-seen-as-warning-to-us/5475955.html ( Taiwan's Apple Daily, 6-25-2020: Chinese military planes approached US p/3c anti-submersible aircraft receiving fuel from KC-135 "Stratotanker" near Taiwan’s Airspace (quoted by United Press International, 6-25-2020 ); FTV 6-24-2020: another possibility is US planes crossed air defense zone ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce3UM2P6nPc )
　

US military VS. China military [ People's Liberation Army ]

● New York Times, 6-26-2020: China’s military is widely thought to remain far behind American armed forces, but it has caught up in some areas, including the expansion of its naval power and the deployment of anti-ship and antiaircraft missiles...China now posed “a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific ...China’s military remains untested. ...

● Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Over the last two decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has made advances that seriously eroded U.S. military power in the western Pacific, especially around Taiwan...the U.S. military now faces the prospect of losing a fight with China in defense of Taiwan. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong

● National Interest, 6-27-2020: Global Times report cites an abstract of China’s 2020 research report on the U.S. military presence in Asia, stating that the U.S. operates 60 percent of its Navy fleet in Asia, 55 percent of its Army and two-thirds of its Marine Corps. “With 85,000 forward-deployed soldiers and a large amount of high-tech and new weaponry, the U.S. military has maintained its absolute supremacy in the Asia-Pacific over the years,” https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-military-aircraft-have-again-entered-taiwan%E2%80%99s-air-space-again-163674

●

◆ Chinese authorities slammed the US for sending a military transport aircraft over the island of Taiwan and urged the US side to abide by the three joint communiqués between China and the US. China reacted angrily about Taiwan (DPP) colluded with foreign forces to violate China's sovereignty and security, actively sabotaged peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and brought calamity to safety and the well-being of people on the island.

pic.: At 6-9-2020, a US Navy (C-40A) is flying over West coast line of Taiwan before heading to Dongsha Island in South China Sea (red-line on pic., green land on left side is China mainland).

although many media reported the flight was re-routed for weather and military exercise nearby, but:
　

◆ New Zealand Herald, 6-15-2020: the US Navy flight was an overt signal of support for Taiwan is likely, especially given China's recent major military exercises close to its borders.

◆ The Drive, 6-9-2020: ( The US action ) "was almost sure to draw some form of rebuke from authorities in Beijing"

◆ NHK Japan, 6-12-2020: Some analysts in Taiwan say the administration of US President Donald Trump conducted the military flight to demonstrate its policy of working with Taiwan.

◆ News Australia, 6-14-2020: Chn. : can also be seen as a de facto joint military drill ...
　

PS: US News & World Report 6-15-2020: provocative move is used to deter China ... it could cause an escalation with China

◆ FocusTaiwan 6-9-2020: the C-40A's flight course as "rare" because the U.S. military usually operates only in international waters or airspace around Taiwan. "the Clipper's route took it through actual Taiwanese airspace, where U.S. military aircraft generally don't venture"

◆ China Times, 6-10-2020: The purpose of the US is riling China, testing the waters and arm Wrestling. The tacit understanding (Chinese military never respond US particular mission in public ocean) between Chn. and US was broken since then.
◆ Express (UK), 6-12-2020: Chn. lashes out at 'provocation' after US plane enters Taiwan airspace which contravens international law.

◆ https://thehill.com/policy/defense/502229-china-condemns-us-military-fo-provocative-flight-over-taiwan

◆ https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191355.shtml

◆ https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4623423

◆ https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200612_01/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33964/taiwanese-fighters-drive-off-chinese-jets-after-navy-transport-plane-flies-over-the-island

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202006090013

● Forbes, 6-7-2020: There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies. If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle. American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers ( brief )

● L.A. Times, 6-9-2020: The country’s focus on communications warfare, autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles could thwart a lumbering giant like the U.S. Navy. War gamers at the Rand Corp. warned last year that the U.S. had “its ass handed to it” in battle simulations. “The Chinese military has progressed very quickly — and it might be a decade or two away, but it is certainly on the road to catching up with the U.S.” (brief)

● News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade.

● Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan. Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).

● New York Times 5-24-2020: China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

● Voice of America, 6-4-2020: US navy will win a war with Chinese navy at this moment... ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

● Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.

● The Australian, 5-18-2020, The Times (UK): In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon.

● CBS news (USA), 11-14-2018: U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
the National Defense Strategy Commission: "It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat." ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)

●

Will US send troops to defend Taiwan ?

● FoxNews, 6-1-2020 https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan?

●

● The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.

●

● Express (UK) 6-30-2020:China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning

●

● Russia's Sputnik 6-30-2020: Wishful Thinking’: US May Be Unwilling to Fight China Over Taiwan, Strategists Fear , ‘The Situation is a lot Grimmer’ there’s reason to worry that Trump will lose interest in Taiwan. He’d trade away Taiwan in a heartbeat if he thought it would get him his trade deal with China. sputniknews.com/asia/202006301079760590-wishful-thinking-us-may-be-unwilling-to-fight-china-over-taiwan-strategists-fear/

●

● South China Morning Post, 6-30-2020: Taiwan warned against ‘wishful thinking’ that US will come to rescue if China attacks

●

● New York Times, 7-2-2020: Doubts have emerged about President Trump’s personal commitment to Taiwan, especially as he tries to hold together a trade deal with China. ... KMT law maker : “If Taiwan fights against the Chinese Communist Party, the United States won’t come to rescue us,” ... As always, Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support. The United States is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself。

●

● Chicago Global Affairs Council

"Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?"

	2015	2018	2019
China invades Taiwan	28%	35	38
N. Korea invade S. Korea	47%	64	58
China initiates a military conflict w Japan over disputed islands	33%	41	43
Russia invades a NATO ally (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc)	45%	54	54
https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/report_ccs19_rejecting-retreat_20190909.pdf

●

● Economist 5-28-2020: a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked...... America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous. America's allies should echo that, loudly. https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify

● chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018, Missouri State University professor D. Hickey's comment : the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

● The Liberty Times, (自由時報) ，1-24-2020: Agreements or treaties like <Taiwan Relations Act> (『台灣關係法』) have not clearly stated the U.S. has obligation or duty to send troops to defend Taiwan.

●

● Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020 https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/ : Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.

●

● The Diplomat 6-8-2020: Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.

●

● Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, ref. to Forbes : the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war.

●

● Maybe Taiwan won't fear military threat from China if the US definitely would come to the rescue once the reunification war breaks out. ( Financial Times 5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic...)

●

● Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020: After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.

●

● ABC Radio National, Australia, 27 February 2020 : In the US, both sides of politics have reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the Taiwanese military is well armed and prepared for any possible Chinese incursion. How the wider international community would respond to cross-strait conflict remains unclear.

●

● United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.

● National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan... ◦

● China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: China and the US flexed their muscles frequently near Taiwan territory, in this April, US fighters approached Taiwan Strait surrounding airspace 13 times, particularly B-1B reached there 3 times. Next TV news 5-8-2020: Chinese air force and fleets conducted a series of provocative, aggressive operations from Jan. 23 till April 22, once traversed Taiwanese 'territory' (Taiwan Strait median line).

● The China Times, opinion, 4-21-2018: survey/poll shows only 18% American are on the side of defending Taiwan by US military (僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台).

● New York Times, 5-24-2020 : China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan. Taiwan News 6-1-2020: Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison explained to VOA that the U.S. would then be forced to join the battle once Beijing's troops cross the Taiwan Strait, leading to catastrophic global warfare.

● New York Post, 5-26-2020: (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.

●

● The Hill 6-16-2020: That question was put directly by Chinese military officials to Assistant Defense Secretary Joseph Nye in 1995, between episodes of Chinese missile firings toward Taiwan: What would the U.S. do if China attacked Taiwan? Nye’s response: “We don’t know and you don’t know; it would depend on the circumstances.” https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan

● Bloomberg 6-24-2020: Even absent a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, the United States can telegraph that commitment by making the choices required to ensure it can defend Taiwan successfully.

●

● National Interest Organization, 3-5-2019 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

In the 2017 TNSS (The Taiwan National Security Survey) survey, most (43.4 percent) thought America will not support Taiwan, while 40.5 percent believed America will commit troops to a conflict. In 2019, however, the number believing Washington will provide troops jumped to 48.5 percent, while the number who think it will not fell to 35.3 percent. If an attack is unprovoked, the percentage of Taiwanese who believe the United States will intervene soars to 60 percent.

arms deal

● L.A. Times 5-20-2020 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-20/taiwan-president-calls-for-stability-in-china-relations), The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020 ( references )

          The U.S. is the island’s main source of military support against China’s military threats. Since 2008, the United States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter aircraft, tanks, and missiles.
        The Diplomat said that while the U.S. remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be important partners as well. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has exported arms from countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States. https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiwan-looking-to-diversify-its-defense-partnerships/
        However, China called the Taiwan issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and military contacts between Taiwan and any country.   Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship.

● Republic World, 5-25-2020: China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.

● Washington Post, 5-30-2020 The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.

● United Daily (聯合報) editorial／ 2020-06-06

The biggest problem is shortage of budget 。
In addition to Navy, Army's tank and artillery (戰車,火砲)，Air force's Mirage jet and C-130，all need to be replaced or enhancing performance， which is far more than the budget can afford。

three presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) kept squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense.

So called asymmetrical capabilities are just skin-deep or phony phrase ! (表面功夫)。

●　 The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees. 　
　　Taiwan is often criticised for purchasing inappropriate capabilities, but these sales serve a deterrent function　― 　continues to extract political commitments from the US.

●

● FoxNews, 6-1-2020 https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

PS: What's the commitment ?

◆ U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982) "817公報"

the United States of America recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.

The Chinese Government reiterates that the question of Taiwan is China’s internal affair. The Message to Compatriots in Taiwan issued by China on January 1, 1979 promulgated a fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Nine-Point Proposal put forward by China on September 30, 1981 represented a further major effort under this fundamental policy to strive for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question.

the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution.

◆ Arms sales to Taiwan NSC Declassification Review (EO 13526) "白宮備忘錄" 1982

...

The US willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences. It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of US foreign policy.

It is essential that the quantity and quality of the arms provided Taiwan be conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC. (brief)

● New York times, 11-4-2017: “(Taiwan) needs to resist a Chinese military attack for two weeks and wait for help from the United States or the international community,” echoing a strategy that has been at the core of Taiwan’s defense doctrine for decades......Taiwan’s armed forces, by contrast (Chn), have fallen way behind, struggling to recruit enough soldiers and sailors — and to equip those they have. A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits the United States to defend the island’s sovereignty, providing “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary” ... US latest arms sales " short of the major systems that could give Taiwan a real edge." (Singapore's The Straits Times :

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-once-mighty-military-now-overshadowed-by-chinas Taiwan's once-mighty military now overshadowed by China's 11-6-2017; http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/xi-tells-trump-that-taiwan-is-the-most-important-issue-in-sino-us-ties Taiwan is the most important issue in Sino-US ties, Xi tells Trump 11-9-2017 )

● Washington Post, 1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
Can China really take over Taiwan?

Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.” ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China. A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

○

Taiwanese youngsters are willing to go to war with China ??

○

　
　

　

　

China-US-Focus 5-4-2018
( https://www.chinausfocus.com/society-culture/taiwan-public-opinion-and-national-security-implications-for-washington-and-taipei)
　

　
★ Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) found that almost 68% of Taiwan’s people were willing to go to war with China
if it seeks to force reunification. The poll’s findings made headlines in Taiwan’s media outlets.
However, some other scientific polls available are more reliable.
　
　
　
★ China-US-Focus, 5-4-2018 : TNSS （The Taiwan National Security Survey ）, a scientific poll, is conducted by the prestigious Election Study Center of
Taiwan's National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University:
　

　 wait and see
　 leave the country join the army to fight against the invasion
　 support the government’s decision,
　 resist
　 hide away
　 choose to surrender
　 commit suicide respondents
answer

　 36.9％ 16％ 4.9％ 6.2％ 4.1％ 2.2％ 1.8％ 0.1％ %

　　　
15.2%
　　　

PS: a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender”。
　
　
　
★ National Interest Organization, 3-5-2019
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

　
Both polls and earlier surveys found that almost 45 percent Taiwanese plan to “leave the country,” “unhappily accept the situation,” “hide”
or “choose to surrender” if reunification war between China and Taiwan break out. Besides, each poll shows that 23 percent
“don’t know” how they might respond, a majority believes most Taiwanese will resist an invasion by PLA.
But the polls also showed 70 % think Taiwanese military cannot win a war ― in any conflict, “mainland forces will prevail.”。
　
　

　

★ 　5-8-2019: New Party（新黨） https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox4EVm45Kvc ，
Poll shows about 20% Taiwanese would like to join the war, but the percentage drops to less than 10% after telling them war may kill them and families 。

　

　

pic.: Zola Zu's article about the world war "I want you !" was printed in the China Times, leading news at that time

　

★ Taiwanese democracy ... click ! top rankings !!
　

　

　

HOT !

Taiwan travel

food

Taiwan soft power

democracy

Intro to Taiwan

Taiwan personality

bully

persecution

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 7-26-2020

pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-26-2020, 5-20-2020;

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-20-2020

ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on Lycos, 6-1-2020

ps : National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

pic. left: Top ranking "Taiwan army" on Yahoo search engine (US), 5-26-2020; No.5 at 7-11-2020

pic. right: Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Yahoo search engine (US), 5-26-2020; No.5 at 7-11-2020

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 5-20-2020

pic. left: No.2 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 5-31-2020 ;
pic. right: Jun. 1, 2020 - 2 B-1B were near Taiwan

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942818

◆ Focus Taiwan News Channel, 6-9-2020: Military planes from China and the US entered Taiwan's airspace, which triggered China's anger;
The China Times, 6-10-2020: it's intentional, and seriously violated three U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (「中美三公報」)
　

ps: Taiwan internet army , top rankings on Bing, Yahoo, etc

○

other information

● The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence “Open Hearing on China’s Worldwide Military Expansion.”, 5-17-2018

(1) China's “infatuation with Taiwan” ?

a visceral nationalistic design ...“if Taiwan survives as a democracy [it] undermines the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”

(2) USA curb China ?

the US could soon be completely driven out of the Asia-Pacific region if Beijing is allowed to continue on its current course unopposed.

(3) Congressional hearing recommended

deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Asia, showing strong support for Taiwan, and exposing human rights abuses in China as immediate steps that could curb Beijing

○

★

● Taiwan Public Opinion and National Security, Dennis V. Hickey, Missouri State University / chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018
The U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

According to a more reliable poll available, The Taiwan National Security Survey (TNSS), which is conducted by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University in 2018 and 2019 , 36.9% plan to “wait and see, 16% percent plan to leave the country, 2.2 % will hide away and 1.8% will “choose to surrender. On the other hand, 6.2% will support the government’s decision, 4.9% will join the army to fight against the invasion, and 4.1% will resist the invasion. The good news is that only 0.1% will commit suicide. But the bad news is that a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender.”


pic.: survey 2018	pic.: survey in 2019

●喵Annual Report to US Congress (2018), 8-17-2018
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

●
Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force

● ◆ Apple Daily 8-18-2018, headlines - China signals its readiness for unification by military force ― anytime.

● ◆ Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)

● ◆ United Daily, 8-18-2018 : China still seek unification by forces - Taiwan losing military edge. China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan. ps: Forbes, 6-3-2020: Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.

A new method was applied to make these tables below:

●

● USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049.
Freebeacon 5-17-2018 : 2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan

○

● Washington Post, 1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
Can China really take over Taiwan?

○

● The US subcommittee hearing (4-17-2018) Rep. Ted Soho, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific: Seems likely Xi will force the issue (unification) in his life time. ( He is the only figure who can accomplish China's so called reunification. Unify Taiwan peacefully or otherwise he is the key part of this accomplishment, ......)

★○○

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on Lycos, 5-20-2020;
　

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on Dogpile, 5-20-2020;

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on Excite, 5-20-2020

● The Heritage Foundation, The Index of U.S. Military Strength, 2017

China’s provocative behavior has expanded to include militarization of islands that it has built in highly disputed international waters in the South China Sea. China has also adopted aggressive naval tactics to intimidate such neighboring countries as Japan and the Philippines... the 2017 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force ... certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies ... / http://index.heritage.org/military/2017/assessments/

○

● Why China Can't Conquer Taiwan in a War , 11-17-2017 Zachary Keck http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-cant-conquer-taiwan-war-23254
A new study by Michael Beckley (Tufts University), published in the academic journal International Security argues that China’s neighbors could thwart Chinese military aggression through anti-access/area denial strategies with only minimal U.S. assistance. ... if China was far more successful than the United States had been in those conflicts, Beijing’s ability to execute an amphibious invasion is still far from certain. For instance, Beckley notes that only ten percent of Taiwan’s coastlines are suitable for an amphibious landing, which would allow Taipei to concentrate its forces on a few key areas. Chinese forces trying to land would likely be severely outnumbered...
○

● <The Chinese Invasion Threat> by Ian Eastonct., Oct. 3, 2017 :

China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said. ...China, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack.

○

● BBC , 12-3-2016 ○http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538
The pivotal role of the US was most clearly shown in 1996, when China conducted provocative missile tests to try and influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election. In response, US President Bill Clinton ordered the biggest display of US military power in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait, and a clear message to Beijing.

○

● 国家政策研究基金会 NPF National Policy Foundation in Taipei, Taiwan; 10-7-2017 CTN

The peace of Taiwan Strait before 2025 depends US military forces (台海安全仍繫於美軍是否介入...最大的不確定性仍是「美軍是否介入」，且在2025年之前，美軍相對中共仍有明顯優勢，與其說押注與否，不如說是因「美軍不可測」的因子無法排除。) / http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171007000342-260119

●

● China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said.

● Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) raised doubts over the time frame Easton asserted, saying that he did not think it is very precise.

●China, according to the book <The Chinese Invasion Threat>, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack.

pic.: Headline of Apple Daily, Oct. 6, 2017

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/05/2003679744; http://freebeacon.com/natiChina’s

●
●喵US Annual Report to Congress, 2017

Annual Report to US Congress (2017):
Military and Security Developments Involving
the People’s Republic of China 2017
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

○

China VS Taiwan

○

○

　

https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
2016 Defense Budget Comparison (Adjusted for Inflation), Billion (USD)

China (Official Budget) $144.3

Russia (National Defense Budget) $46.2

Japan $47.2

India $37.0

Republic of Korea $32.8

Taiwan $10.5

Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China. Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force. (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school, National ChungCheng University)

○●

● Apple Daily, 12-19-2017 head-page, focus ; data from Taiwan's national defense gov.

pic. left: China military capacity VS Taiwan; pic. right: Chinese air force did lots of "patrol circling" (flying around Taiwan and passing through 1st island chain ).

Source: Apple Daily News, head-page and focus news, 12-19-2017

○●

● International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS,UK, www.iiss.org), the military balance 2018 press statement - The annual assessment of global military capability and defence economics, 2-14-2018
●In 2017 Beijing showcased more advanced military systems ... are challenging the global predominance of the United States and its allies ... https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military-s-balance

China's modernisation of its armed forces is processing faster than many experts expected ... (ref to Apple Daily, opinion, 2-21-2018, "共軍非必勝國軍非必敗")

○●

● US Annual Report to Congress, 2016

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Annual Report to Congress:
Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2016%20China%20Military%20Power%20Report.pdf
　

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Naval Forces
	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	East and South Sea Fleets	Total
Aircraft Carriers	1	0	0
Destroyers	23	16	4
Frigates	52	40	22
Corvettes	23	14	1
Tank Landing Ships/ Amphibious Transport Dock	30	28	14
Medium Landing Ships	22	16	0
Diesel Attack Submarines	57	38	4
Nuclear Attack Submarines	5	2	0
Ballistic Missile Submarines	4	4	0
Coastal Patrol (Missile)	86	68	45

★

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Air Forces
	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	Within range of Taiwan	Total
Fighters	1,700	130	384
Bombers/Attack	400	200	0
Transport	475	150	19
Special Mission Aircraft	115	75	25

★

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Ground Forces

	China	China	Taiwan
	Total	Taiwan Strait Area	Total
Personnel (Active)	1.25 million	400,000	130,000
Group Armies/Army Corps	18	8	3
Infantry Divisions	12	4	0
Infantry Brigades	23	7	5
Mechanized Infantry Divisions	7	4	0
Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Divisions	2	2	0
Mechanized Infantry Brigades	25	8	3
Armor Divisions	1	0	0
Armor Brigades	17	7	4
Amphibious Armor Brigades	1	1	0
Army Aviation Brigades and Regiments	11	6	3
Artillery Brigades	22	9	5
Airborne Divisions	3	3	0
Marine Brigades	2	2	2
Tanks	7,000	2,800	1,100
Artillery Pieces	8,000	3,900	1,600

○

● New York times, 10-19-2017: https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171019/china-xi-jinping-party-congress/dual/

○    Chinese president Xi delivered the line that won the loudest applause of his marathon speech: “We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
        Apple Daily, 10-20-2017, "ShaoKang Zhao Fax" column:
        Only 800+ words (out of 32000+ words in total) in Xi's speech at the 19th Communist party congress mentioned Taiwan, Taiwan issue seems not so important to Xi JinPing.
        China Times Group's CTI TV Sisys world news, 10-21-2017 : expert analyzed and interpreted Xi's speech and his implies ― it seems the timetable for unification is 2050.

●

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-17-2020

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-17-2020

pic. left: No.3 "Taiwan military" on Dogpile, 5-17-2020; pic. right: Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Ecosia (Europe Germany) , 5-17-2020
ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

◆ pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on ＭｅｔａＧＥＲ。ｄｅ, Germany, 6-４-2020

Taiwanese military; 中文版 (Chinese version)
　