T
aiwan military
    ( China - Taiwan war )

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       Taiwanese military    News  Taiwan vs. Chinese military    will China strike on Taiwan?    US vs. Chinese military    US send troops?     arms deal     Taiwanese willing to fight ?     others

Ever since KMT retreated to Taiwan after the CCP takeover of the Chinese mainland in 1949, Beijing has insisted Taiwan is part of China / ref to Chicago Tribune, Oct '20  Latest news: NY Times, 11-24-2020: Biden Faces Pressure from Democrats and Republicans to Stand Up to China by Embracing Taiwan... He will continue to support a peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues ... won't use Taiwan to poke Xi Jinping in the eye and make him look weak National Interest, 11-20-2020: Would China really invade Taiwan? Maybe ! But the costs would be nuts Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity (~2022), experts fear WSJ, 11-15-2020: An attack on Taiwan, the top chips manufacturer, would roil industry and the world National Interest, 11-15-2020: Geography and history dictate that the American defense policy and the security of Taiwan are one and the same—and it cannot be decoupled DW (Germany) ,11-10-2020:The Biden administration will have to make it quite clear from the outset whether it is ready to go to war for Taiwan's sake Reuters,11-12-2020:WHO says faces 'onslaught' of cyberattacks as Taiwan complains of censorship Express UK,11-10-2020: Due to Mr Biden’s less-severe tone on China in the lead up to the election, and has no specific policy for deepening ties with Taiwan, Taiwan officials fear a Biden administration would be more conciliatory towards Beijing at the expense of Taiwan Reuters,11-9-2020: Taiwan lawmakers described Biden as “China-friendly”, and others pointing to Biden’s opposition to a bill to strengthen Taiwan’s security in 1999 News Australia,11-7-2020: 'War will come’ warns Beijing after Taiwan stocks up on US-made missiles Newsweek,11-4-2020: Taiwan Would Last 'Only Two Weeks' in War With China, Says Ex-Navy Commander  Japan Sankei Shimbun ( 產經新聞),10-29-2020:Japan's DM 岸信夫: Given military imbalance of both sides, anything can happen, Taiwan must be very cautious Yomiuri (Japan 読売新聞), 10-30-2020: Japan will hold military drill the largest ever since 35 years ago to avoid engaging in a possible China-Taiwan war ("14万人演習…陸自「台湾有事」波及を警戒") NewsWeek, 10-28-2020: As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.  With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have. Financial Times, 10-19-2020: Mr Xi has already demonstrated that he is willing to take military risks and repressive actions that antagonise the west and scare China’s neighbours.  Political turmoil in Washington (ps: US election) may open a window of opportunity for Beijing Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT:  whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it Washington Post, 10-15-2020: Would the US protect Taiwan from China? Taiwan's new envoy hopes for 'clarity.' ... “I have not considered at all the possibility of too much support for Taiwan,” VOA, 10-17-2020: Taiwan Should Prepare to deter Chinese any sort of amphibious invasion or even a gray zone operation ( isolating the island economically, coercive and provocative actions short of the use of military force) WSJ,10-13-2020:  continued ambiguity in the face of Xi's escalating rhetoric and provocative movements by his armed forces in the Taiwan Strait presents the greater risk of a confrontation as dangerous  as the Cuban Missile Crisis VOA,10-15-2020: Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts, expand its military reserve, to Counter China Forbes,10-26-2020:To Thwart Invasion, Taiwan Points Powerful New Missiles At Chinese Bases

The People’s Daily, 10-15-2020 , Global Times, 10-15-2020:  “Don’t say we didn’t warn you"  (「勿謂言之不預」)...  

http://www.nexttv.com.tw/NextTV/News/Home/LatestNews/2020-10-17/275597.html

台灣 壹電視 壹新聞, 10-17-2020

The People’s Daily《告台灣情治部門書》full text : http://js.people.com.cn/BIG5/n2/2020/1015/c359574-34350271.html;
Economist 10-22-2020 :
https://www.economist.com/china/2020/10/22/chinas-half-loving-half-threatening-pitch-to-taiwan-doesnt-work
Washington Post, 10-26-2020:
 how the us should respond to china's saber-ratting on Taiwan

 

Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece《人民日報》), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past
●  Washington Post, 10-26-2020: ... jingoistic editorials in China's state-run press — have raised concerns in the West that Xi is readying China for a new war. The target in this case would be Taiwan
●  After China's mouthpiece, People's Daily or XinHua editorial issued a severe warning "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" in 1962、1967、1978,Chinese PLA started military operations against Indian and Vietnamese troops respectively.
 The People's Daily in Nov. 2019 sent a warning  "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" to Hong Kongers, in the next year China cracked down HK, and passed a national security law on Hong Kong.
 This time the People’s Daily put its warning to Taiwan's intelligence in "opinion/commentary" , instead of "editorial" column as before, and on "7th edition" instead of 1st~4th edition as before, ...  therefore, it's serious but not as severe as before, probably a warning for coercion or "gray zone" actions such as blockage or economic intervenes, or pressuring Taiwan into giving up ... those sort of psychological war.
● 
SCMP (HK), 10-20-2020: ... unusually strong language in a recent commentary in People's Daily invoking the phrase “don’t say we didn’t warn you”, serves as a reminder, which was targeting a big rise in the number of Taiwanese intelligence agents active on the mainland, but was aimed at a much wider audience.

●  Washington Post (7-22-2020) :  In 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force.  Soon later PLA's warplanes crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") first time ever since 1949, according to Newsweek 8-12-2020, and the PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions till now. 
 

 

 
   PS: The commentary also criticizes Taiwan intelligence's "green terror" and monitoring the public, which is good for Taiwanese people

   PS2: CGTN 11-26-2020: Understanding the one-China policy: Taiwan is a part of China, but was ceded to Japan in an unfair treaty in 1895. The year of 1945 marked the end of the 50-year Japanese occupation of Taiwan. In 1949, the Kuomindang (KMT) party lost the Chinese Civil War to the Communist Party of China, and subsequently the Republic of China ceased to exist as a legitimate government. Chiang Kai Shek, the then KMT leader, fled to Taiwan and the island was given military protection by the United States, preventing formal reunification from taking place. ­In 1971, UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 set out that the People's Republic of China (PRC) constituted the only lawful representative of China and thus the PRC obtained the seat of "China" at the United Nations previously occupied by the Republic of China.In line with this, Beijing has requested other countries to accept the one-China policy as a prerequisite for diplomatic relations. Most countries have already accepted this principle and respected the one-China position. However, the Taiwan issue hasnot yet been resolved.

 

 

 pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 12-2-2020, 11-20-2020, 10-28-2020

 

 

Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020: We should defend Taiwan... Yet, to be effective as a deterrent, Beijing has to see it as a defensive move by Washington, aimed at preserving the status quo, and not as part of a new offensive against China Bloomberg,10-12-2020:  unite China and Taiwan ... (Xi) preferably through coercion rather than war Economist,10-9-2020:  China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...  Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky.  Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  ◆ Bloomberg, 10-8-2020:  Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,”  “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril " ◆ Politico,10-8-2020: Taiwan’s not ready to defend itself...lack of defense capacity and their lack of depth...What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out”  ◆ Financial Times (UK),10-6-2020:  If Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers. China has a different playbook - coercion Reuters, 10-8-2020: U.S. warns China against Taiwan attack, stresses U.S. 'ambiguity' L.A. Times,10-6-2020:  To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service ... US expert: “We do not have sufficient capability to come to Taiwan’s defense without putting our forces at great risk” New York Times,10-5-2020: China’s tone shifts toward fighting words, the torrent of bombast online and in state media in recent weeks is potentially ominous. The prospect of war remains remote, but the risk is that the propaganda could translate into more provocative actions. Diplomat, 10-5-2020: It is likely that legislation favorable to Taiwan will continue in the 117th Congress,... All the Taiwan-related congressional initiatives had bipartisan support Guardian, 10-2-2020:  An invasion may not be imminent but experts say armed forces could have capacity to mount one by the end of the decade Washington Post, 10-2-2020:  a policy of strategic clarity would be counterproductive at best, and catastrophic at worst   Forbes, 9-29-2020: Beijing’s recent actions may indicate that its willingness to take risks is increasing. Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated. it is important to bear in mind that arming Taiwan isn’t just about keeping the island free. If Beijing breaks out of the first island chain, everything changes in the Western Pacific National Interest, 9-28-2020:  China's Fear: U.S. Troops Deployed to Taiwan (But It Likely Won't Happen) National Interest, 9-26-2020: The probability of war ... is growing in the Taiwan Strait. "The deluge is closer than many think"  Express (UK), 10-3-2020:  WW3 warning: China to RAMP up Taiwan take over plans if huge US arms deal is agreed  SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, Taiwan has long been on the menu.

Newsweek, 10-8-2020: Lease F-35s to Taiwan to Counter China's Threats New Zealand Herald, 10-4-2020: China, Taiwan tensions could result in all-out war with the US CNN, 9-27-2020: China is doubling down on its territorial claims and that's causing conflict across Asia Bloomberg, 9-26-2020:  Legal warfare has been part of China’s comprehensive strategy to deal with Taiwan issues rfi (France), 9-25-2020:  will the US stand up to any eventual Chinese military aggression?  in the increasing chaos surrounding the US presidential election and the uncertain outcome of that poll, it is likely that Washington will have other priorities than what’s happening in the East China Sea Daily Express, 9-26-2020:  Brink of war: China puts world on alert over Taiwan threats - 'Five minutes to midnight'  NIKKEI asia review (Japan) 9-25-2020:  Most observers believe neither side wants a war Hudson.org, 9-23-2020:  Senator Marco Rubio : Helping Taiwan to win an all-out conflict against China would not be a way to reach that goal,  “That’s not possible.” Instead, Washington should assist Taipei “to have the capability to raise the cost of military adventurism there to a level that China’s not willing to pay..." NPR, 9-22-2020: Taiwan FM:  the island was not relying on the United States to intervene in the event of a clash with China Voice of America, 9-21-2020: The increasing number of air force incursions from China is starting to fray nerves among ordinary Taiwanese ... A Yahoo poll, as of early September, had found that 64% of Taiwanese worry about a conflict, but a lot of people’s fears are muted by perceptions that China is just sending a political signal, “Taiwanese people now have this kind of illusion,”― United States would defend Taiwan Washington Post, 9-18-2020: China launches combat drills in Taiwan strait warns us not to play with fire, Taiwan warned that it could devolve into all-out war NY Times, 9-18-2020: U.S. Official Visits Taiwan, and China Warns of Consequences “Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States” DW, 9-19-2020:  the world has underestimated the severity of this flashpoint and that there's the potential for war over Taiwan — I think itself is an underestimation," said Ian Easton... 2020 to 2030 is the most dangerous time on earth U.S. News, 9-17-2020: China Threatens U.S. Over Taiwan Visit: ‘Stones May Become Torpedoes’  Guardian 9-17-2020:  Taipei fears “a real possibility” of war

 France 24, 9-16-2020: Taiwanese FM on China: 'After Hong Kong, Taiwan might be next' , more support from the international community is needed to hamper China's expansion The Hill, 9-17-2020: The U.S. Election (Nov. 3 week) Could Be a Danger for Taiwan, an Opportunity for China (to invade) Foreign Affairs, 9-2-2020:  American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous; The best way to ensure that the United States does not need to come to Taiwan’s defense is to signal to China that it is prepared to do so  N.Y. Times, 8-30-2020:  Taiwan has moved to revamp Taiwan’s military doctrine and strengthen its reserves...Taiwan cannot count on US as a matter of strategy Economist, 8-30-2020:  The island cannot rely on American help, but armed conflict remains unlikely Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to  defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military   ◆ The Hill, 8-25-2020: Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) ... does not say the president must wait to consult Congress until a Chinese attack actually occurs or is imminent — only that the threat to Taiwan’s democratic security and the danger to U.S. interests be identified...Yet, Biden... consultation with Congress prior to responding would cause disastrous delay    US Naval Institute, Proceedings, Aug. 2020: 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making...  such an opportunity would only appear every few decades...for achievement of a long-held goal — to bring Taiwan back into China  CNN, 8-14-2020: What Taiwan needs form the US is a strong stable marriage not a hot passionate romance ...  a long-term antagonistic relationship between the US and China wasn't sustainable after November... Taiwan needs to think about it    CNN, 8-11-2020 : Beijing's warplanes have only crossed  the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") intentionally three times since 1999 (ps: Newsweek 8-12-2020: since 1949)-- once in March 2019, in February of this year, and again on Monday (Azar met with Taiwan President Tsai)  ◆ aljazeera, 8-11-2020: Taiwan's top diplomat tells visiting US health secretary that Chinese pressure is making 'life increasingly difficult'  

CNN 9-17-2020  interviews with Taiwan FM : Taiwan is trying to avoid being "the next Hong Kong"

 

China-Taiwan warTaiwan military trying to avoid being "the next Hong Kong"

 

 

 

 

 

FoxNews, 9-9-2020 (9-10-2020 Taipei time) :
Taiwan unveils US-backed fighter jet hub as tensions with China build

https://www.foxnews.com/world/will-taiwan-become-the-next-hong-kong  China military show of force near Taiwan has experts asking if island could be the 'next Hong Kong'

 

   Taiwanese military

Taiwan military   vs.   China military

 


assessments  
 
Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Taiwan needs huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines; developing an army that can surge
tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles.
 it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island. 
With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have

New York times,  8-30-2020:  Taiwan's Lawmaker said Taiwan’s military needs to improve a lot
  Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to  defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military
 

 personnel

 ( soldiers, officials )

  Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell.  US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system.
◆ 
armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers
  few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled  /  Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/
Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... /  New York times,  5-18-2017
  The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.   /  Wikipedia, May 2020

◆  Taiwan began to phase out mandatory conscription for all young men, which was deeply unpopular, in favor of an all-volunteer force; 4 months of compulsory service ... training is "insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat (RAND, '17)  /  New York times,  8-30-2020  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/30/world/asia/taiwan-china-military.html

◆   Only 310 thousands out of 770 thousands of qualified reservists were called up for short-term military training, from 2015 to 2017, 61 thousands of those escaped the duty  / Formosa TV news, 8-3-2018, storm.mg 10-15-2019
◆  only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group  /   Financial Times, 7-12-2020

◆  Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state.  For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men.  /   Hong Kong Free Press 7-15-2020

◆  Reserve force is short of both officers and sergeants, their speciality far match the position  /  United Daily, 10-2-2020 

 

strategy ◆  To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” /  Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020
◆  so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only at surface-level    /   United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020    (ps:  the US should work with Taiwan to develop asymmetric military capabilities  /  Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020  )

◆  a weirdo strategy:  Facing PLA's attacks, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels, warships leave Taiwan, once the US military comes to Taiwan's rescue, they will return and join the war  / Apple Daily, 8-14-2020 tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/

firepower

France forced Taiwan to withdraw its request to upgrade 20-year-old Mirage fighters ...  F-16 A/B and  F-CK-1 fighters are  growing tired; 60 or 70 new fighters and a few missiles won’t really change the balance of power. And heavy tanks – especially if they lack trained crews – won’t do much to stop a Chinese invasion / Forbes, 8-30-2020
◆   A whole lot of Taiwan’s weapons don’t work.   /  Forbes, 9-4-2020  forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/04/which-of-taiwans-old-weapons-still-work/#340d2ee156a2
◆   only 30% of Taiwan's tanks are in running condition with functional weapons. / Business Insider, 10-9-2020

  China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...  Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  /  Economist,10-9-2020

◆  the PLA could, without invading, destroy Taiwanese military, power and telecom facilities, embargo oil imports, cut cyber connectivity, then take advantage of the psychological impact on Taiwan to press for negotiations   /  Politico,10-8-2020

◆  Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan.   /  Forbes, 6-3-2020

◆  China has nuclear bomb ,Neutron bomb, hydrogen bomb, Taiwan has none of those. / Next TV news, 5-8-2020
◆   Three Taiwanese presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文)  squandering those "bonus for peace" military budget and underestimating the demand of national defense, lead to shortage of arms-deal budget.  /   United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020
◆ 
Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ,  China PLA No. 3  /  Global FirePower, 2020
◆  A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... /  New York times,  11-4-2017

military logistics system

◆   The logistics inside the military remain so abysmal ... The army likely has no clue how many tanks or guns actually mission-capable ...      /  Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020 

◆   only 30% of Taiwan's tanks are in running condition with functional weapons.   The outdated hardware stands in stark contrast to China's massive and increasingly modern force /  Business Insider, 10-9-2020

◆  Taiwan  lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments /   United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020

 morale

◆  NY Times, 11-24-2020 says Taiwan's famous politician screams for help: “Taiwan can’t face the might of China alone", ”We can’t fight China on our own".  in spite of Economist, NY Times, and pro-Taiwan senator advised Taiwan not to rely on  the US to intervene ...
◆ 
“Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue /  Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/20/taiwan-military-flashy-american-weapons-no-ammo/

 Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky /  Economist,10-9-2020

 Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... /  New York times,  5-18-2017
Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... / Financial Times  5-19-2020

 

combat experience

Taiwan’s army has trouble with training across the board. Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  /  Economist,10-9-2020

 The military combines 4 drills to one per year for battle and propaganda-show, affecting training effect ,  high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission. /  ref to China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion   www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv 蘭寧利》; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv

discipline

 The practice of judicial system has proved not as good as military criminal code to educate and train the military discipline.  A soldier's 洪仲丘 'torture to death" sparks massive protest around 2013,  the military court was hence no longer to judge the troops .   /  The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial

budget

◆  High personnel expense pushes aside the logistics and maintenance budget,   the govt. needs to plan special budge to purchase arms. /  The China Times, 7-17-2020, editorial

Taiwan would increase Taiwan’s defense budget by 10 percent, on top of a 5 percent increase the year before. That would raise military spending to more than 2 percent of gross domestic product   /  New York times,  8-30-2020

ps

VICE, 7-24-2020:  With increasing Chinese modernization, Taiwan’s advantages decline — and the numbers are telling.
To Taiwan’s 140,000 ground troops, China has 1 million. To Taiwan’s 23 Coast Guard ships, China has 248. Taiwan has no bombers, while China has 450. While Taiwan has 350 fighter jets, China has 1,500.
All in all, China’s defense budget is 17 times the size of Taiwan’s, with much of the former spent on developing the capability of unifying Taiwan with the mainland by force.   The capability to do harm and the intention to do harm. China has both.

 

   

     Taiwan's military reform            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

聯合報, 10-22-2020

 

嚴德發:若總統下動員令 第一時間作戰主力45萬人
 
國軍後備改革,有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示,若總統動員令一下,約26萬名後備軍人就要報到,加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員,約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力
 

 

https://udn.com/news
/story/10930/4954777

募兵

 徵兵


 

Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands  +  reservists 260 thousands (call-up training 14 days per year )      enough ?
      Foreign Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems are another.  This also means preparing the public for conflict...
  foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/
     Newsweek, 11-5-2020, News Australia, 11-7-2020: expert says Taiwan will need to bring back the draft in order to put up a fight. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/war-will-come-warns-beijing-after-taiwan-stocks-up-on-usmade-missiles/news-story/41a1d2b2e04e2f5e015c308b5dedd9b9

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770

      But Taiwan goes the other way and declares it will cut off the number of 2021's new-entry volunteer service soldiers from 22,000 to 12,000, according to LTN 11-7-2020.  Is it a signal from Taiwan to China while pro-Taiwan Trump losing US election ?  Furthermore, Taiwan only plans to mobilize about 1/10 reservists, Newsweek (10-30-2020) doubts how many reservists may come once the war breakout, because in peace time, only 70% citizens came for 7 days-per-year call-up training.  In contrast, China's 北戴河 meeting set up a goal to mobilize all the people for the war.      

 

Western experts'
advices:

number of reservists

western analysts

 advices

a million

 Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020 Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists
a million  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020 Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles
 more than a million USArmy University Press
Military Review,
Sept-Oct, 2020
Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity
2.3 million  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020   2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training.  Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA
2~3.8 million New York times,  5-18-2017 The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists   Wikipedia, May 2020:  reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  )
     

 

Financial Times (UK, 10-1-2020) reported the number of Chinese military personnel is about 2m,  Taiwanese military is only 163,000.  Guardian UK (6-27-2020) Financial Times UK (10-6-202010-19-2020) reported that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers or about 50% of total PLA strength ( Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to 616 millions

Therefore, Taiwanese military should needs more than a million
reservists with strict trainings.  Taiwan's latest military reform plan ( mobilizing only about 1/10 reservists) starting from 2022 obviously is not good and early enough !  How does Taiwan know China will not strike before 2022 ?  Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020:  China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity... maybe between now and the communist party congress in 2022.”.    If Taiwan knows for sure China will not make any move on Taiwan, why Taiwan's FM calls on Australia to help prevent China War ? because Taiwan was now "very concerned" ... "the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was much higher than before" according to Newsweek 12-1-2020 and ABC Australia 12-1-2020.   Taiwan was criticized by NY Times in 2017 for relying on US military to fight China.

 

◆  Combat skills and will-power  

Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’.  But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan.  Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky...  Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers .

 

◆  SOL:  Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible    ――   Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

 

◆  Core problem
       Taiwan's politicians like to win an election rather than win a war !!

      
Diplomat, 10-3-2020:  Taiwan should lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years.  Such a policy, however, could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Party (DPP)  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... NCCU professor says that without America's words, Taiwan still slept there doing nothing about reservist reform (寰宇全視界, 2020) Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) :  Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  however, the United States may not be up to the task. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

      

 

 

  US weapons,  good enough for Taiwan !?            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

   

    

     Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020:Taiwan should devote its limited defense budget to acquiring huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines.  Forbes, 9-29-2020: Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated.  Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems、long-range surveillance armed drones...

 

    However, here are some problems:

 

◆  too big !?
       
Many US weapons Taiwan bought in recent years are “big ticket”, "symbolic", such as M1 tank heavy vehiclesF16V jet ; SCMP (Hong Kong ,10-15-2020) and Japan Times (7-9-2019): those weapons Taiwan requested "will not alter the basic military balance in the region”  ; A more important issue is : Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...   Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries still consist predominantly of small numbers of advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage;  Bloomberg 10-27-2020 has same view. 
        Therefore,
Taiwan should buy "smaller-size",
mobile, lethal, hard-to-target and numerous (for strategic dispersion) practical weapons with maneuverability capabilities (missiles, HIMARS, etc) better for its asymmetrical capabilities.  But Taiwan went the other route.  DW (Germany), 6-6-2019 reported: Taiwan confirms request for US tanks, Taiwan may be seeking to buy 66 more F-16 fighter jets 。 Taiwan expert in Diplomat,11-3-2020 thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/ says the high visibility of conventional systems positively impacts Taiwanese morale and improves public confidence in the military, and those weapons are effective during peacetime.  The problem is:  does Taiwan have enough budget to buy those ?

 

◆  too late !?

         Newly bought US weapons take at least one year maybe 4~5 years to arrive in Taiwan? (e.g., F16V will come by 2026).  Independent (UK, 10-28-2020), SCMP( Hong Kong, 10-27-2020) : Taiwan says newly purchased US arms will help it destroy half of any invading Chinese force by 2025.  However, Defense News (10-27-2020): “I think if there’s anything to be concerned about its how fast we can get these systems to the Taiwan. If this is over the next 5-7 years, ... we shouldn’t be coming out of our seats celebrating. And that’s a political question ...".
        
Even all come early, still not enough !  Voice of America,10-15-2020: Experts Say Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts to Counter China.  Reuters (Oct. 2020) says Taiwan is developing and testing new missiles.

         China's mouth-piece Global Times, 10-27-2020:  the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real "porcupine" ( Independent UK, 10-8-2020: US: Taiwan needed to "turn themselves into a porcupine" militarily,  "Lions generally don't like to eat porcupines.")
               

 

◆  too old !?
       
Forbes, 10-26-2020: Taipei’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles complicates Beijing’s invasion-planning.  Diplomat, 10-31-2020: New Offensive Weapons Package stretches the concept of “defensive” weaponry to its limit .
       
However, Defense News, 10-26-2020: The Harpoon missile (just purchased) is an older technology and travels at sub-sonic speeds, which means it may be more vulnerable to advanced air defenses. ...  Business Insider, 10-28-2020:  Harpoon anti-ship missiles could frustrate an amphibious assault a Chinese military.. expert in Hong Kong says the missiles "will boost Taiwan's attack ability a little bit," but they "cannot survive a real war and can barely make any change to the balance of military power between Beijing and Taipei." Global Times, 10-27-2020: The threat that these Harpoon missiles poses to the PLA is very limited, as they are high subsonic missiles designed in the 1980s, and the current self-defense and anti-missile facilities installed by the PLA on its vessels and land-based bases can shoot them down easily,"   The US has a more advanced anti-ship missile with stealth capability, but it won't sell it to Taiwan, so the latest announced sale is another expensive deal ...
        If Biden is elected, things may even worsen, CNN 10-29-2020 says that
Biden could offer minor concessions to Beijing, like providing Taiwan with less potent weapons.

 

 

◆  Can Taiwan defeat China by US weapons ?

         Taiwan's defense may be not too bad, but there’s little doubt that China would win a war with Taiwan, even if such a conflict would be costly on all sides, according to many analysts in media such as Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020, Bloomberg, 10-8-2020 China even could destroy Taiwan easily by missiles or fatal weapons if it really wanted.  Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military.

         Many pro-independence Taiwanese actually is short of "will-power",  if they all have "soul of the military" as Japanese army had in WWII , Taiwan's "Tokubetsu Kogekitai" ( とくべつこうげきたい ,「神風敢死隊」, suicide planes) may destroy Chinese only two aircraft-carriers to end the war.   As China Threatens War, Nearly Everyone in Taiwan Wants Peace: Poll  (NewsWeek, 10-28-2020).
          B
oth sides of Taiwan Strait are Chinese, Chinese blood in the veins. 
NBC 10-24-2020: Economically, Taiwan is dependent on Beijing.  Washington Post, 1-2-2017 noted " 83 percent Taiwanese chose bread (China's economy) over romance ("independence").  Hope there's a win-win solution ahead.     originally written at 10-29-2020

 

      

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa  10-11
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/  
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html

www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204800.shtml

https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-says-newly-purchased-us-111753710.html 

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/26/us-state-department-to-allow-sale-of-hundreds-of-anti-ship-missiles-to-taiwan-amid-diplomatic-row/

https://www.businessinsider.com/sale-of-missiles-to-taiwan-could-frustrate-a-chinese-invasion-2020-10

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/experts-say-taiwan-needs-more-homegrown-military-efforts-counter-china

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/#439bad0147f6

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-20201008-grd2fews3ffg7gdc4zyhagafjq-story.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/tiny-taiwan-caught-middle-u-s-china-battle-supremacy-n1244521

https://www.newsweek.com/china-war-taiwan-peace-poll-1542735

 

 

 

 

 

Military Review    Sept. ~ Oct. , 2020    /   USArmy University Press
www.armyupress.army.mil/journals/military-review/english-edition-archives/September-October-2020/

 

brief

 

 Military Review paints a  picture  China's PLA will attack south-west coast of Taiwan, and land weaker-defense area - eastern Taiwan, southern Taiwan 

 

 

 

 

    Why Would China Not Invade Taiwan Now?  /   Tim Willasey-Wilsey  

Why Invade Now ? Why Not Invade Now ?
The Trump administration has no appetite for overseas military adventures. Trump is not going to war with China, and not over Taiwan. He is far more interested in trade wars and economic advantage. whether PLA is capable of achieving a quick victory over Taiwan.
There may never be another moment when the whole world is focused on managing an event of the scale of the coronavirus pandemic。 Though the Chinese are quintessentially patient, they are also demonstrably opportunistic a huge gamble for armed forces which have not been employed in combat during the careers of even their most senior officers.
China could hardly be more globally unpopular than now. Much of it may be unfair but there will be plenty of time to improve diplomatic relations
once Taiwan has been safely reunified
The aircraft carriers and amphibious landing ships are still relatively new.
A lot could go wrong
Taiwan Relations Act fell far short of a guarantee to come to Taiwan’s assistance. Even President “Six Assurances”  made no mention of U.S. military intervention.  The Taiwanese will fight and fight hard.
once reunified, pro-Western countries, like Japan and South Korea, will be more humbled and less likely to believe in the U.S. defense umbrella. the U.S. won’t want to get into a war over Taiwan; but there are many military options in cyber, South China Sea strikes, special forces, and other means
unify the country in time for the centenary of the CCP in 2021 and long before that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2049. China has much more to lose internationally from economic sanctions
 little chance that the U.S. would sail a carrier strike group into or near the Taiwan Strait now that the PLA Navy (PLAN) is equipped with quiet submarines the Chinese will crack down on Hong Kong, build their fleet, economy, and cyber for another decade, and make their move then against Taiwan—not now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Time Horizons Drive Potential Taiwan Cross-Strait Conflict   /   David An

 a state will act based on its intentions, capabilities, and opportunities, time horizons。 converging time horizons drive China to be more aggressive toward Taiwan, shortening the timeline for unification, while at the same time driving the United States to be more willing to stand up to China’s aggression

 

U.S. intervention to assist Taiwan ? No intervention
security—Taiwan has been a loyal partner to the United States  not want to sacrifice its troops in another foreign conflict
economics—Taiwan usually ranks as the tenth largest trading partner of the United States  avoid a direct kinetic conflict with nuclear-armed China
regime type—Taiwan is a liberal constitutional democracy could escalate to frightening levels
audience cost concerns ―  Japan, South Korea, and Australia will be more skeptical of U.S. commitment to them?  unit-level characteristics ― 
the personal views of the U.S. leaders toward China and Taiwan at the time
others that could intervene to assist Taiwan would most likely include Japan, South Korea, Australia, and possibly the other NATO allies of the United States. Russia and North Korea might step in to help China

 

 

 

 

 Deterring  the Dragon Returning U.S. Forces to Taiwan / https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Mills-Deterring-Dragon/

 If the United States wants to maintain credible conventional deterrence against a PLA attack on Taiwan, it needs to consider basing troops in Taiwan.

Ground forces based in Taiwan would not only be important for repelling a PLA invasion, but more importantly, they would act like what RAND calls a “tripwire”; that is, “smaller numbers of ground forces stationed to ensure that U.S. forces quickly become directly involved in a potential adversary invasion.”53 A small force would be economical and minimally antagonistic toward mainland China especially if it was only a rotational force.

 

 

 

 Drive Them into the Sea  https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Dunn-Drive-Into-Sea/

 

Large-scale amphibious invasion is one of the most complicated and difficult military operations. Success depends upon air and maritime superiority, the rapid buildup and sustainment of supplies onshore, and uninterrupted support. An attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain China’s armed forces and invite international intervention. These stresses, combined with China’s combat force attrition and the complexity of urban warfare and counterinsurgency, even assuming a successful landing and breakout, make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk.

 what does America do when its forces arrive? Arriving in time to enforce a cease-fire is simply a means to delay losing. Just the credible threat of a U.S. Army corps capable of being deployed to Taiwan might deter China from starting an invasion; China might no longer be confident that the main effort will remain one between the PLA and the Taiwanese ground forces. And if deterrence fails, the corps will drive the enemy into the sea

 

 

 

 

 

 New Opportunities amid Increasing Threats  https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/September-October-2020/Setzekorn-Taiwan-US-Army/

 

Due to the PLA downsizing and streamlining into a force of roughly 1.3 million ground force personnel, not all of whom can be deployed, Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity

 

 

 

 

 US Naval Institute, Proceedings,  2020-August ;  Forbes, 8-24-2020 
 Chinese military vs. Taiwanese military  

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-was

brief

 

(1)  The 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making.  The PBSC decided in mid-December (2020) to place in motion Operation Red Province — to bring Taiwan back into China.

(2)  Non-government voices on Taiwan, orchestrated as a deception operation by Chinese intelligence services, now called for full independence, creating a predicate for Beijing to move on its legal claim.  The PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions and then commenced a major military exercise along its east coast in early January.

(3)  Two days before U.S. presidential inauguration, a message was transmitted to Taiwan’s leaders that they had the option of immediate peaceful capitulation or armed coercion... China’s own “little green men” — emerged to take control of key facilities and sabotage military facilities.  A host of cyberattacks crippled Taiwan’s public media and took down key elements of the power grid. 

(4)  PLA seized several islands claimed by Taiwan, including Quemoy, Matsu, and the Penghus.  Peoples Liberation Army Navy submarines deployed to close the northern and southern entrances to the Taiwan Strait, and also deployed east of Taiwan to prepare for potential action against U.S. Navy ships.  An immediate sea and air blockade of the island was announced.

(5)  China’s “Wolf Warrior Diplomats” sent messages: “Don’t join in any international rebuke of China or suffer the consequences of reduced Chinese trade and investment.” Stock markets across the globe crashed on 19 January.

(6)  the National Security Advisor said, “This is not about whether we stand behind Taiwan—we do—but it looks like we may have been outmaneuvered. I don’t like it,"

 

 

 

 China-Taiwan War/Tension :
 China sent numerous aircraft close to Taiwan and crossed the sensitive median line  during two days of drills   
 by Reuters (UK) 
 9-21-2020

https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSL3N2GI0KE

 

brief  

WHY IS TENSION RISING NOW?
two US top officials visits in as many months, and the US  is planning major new arms sales to Taiwan.

 

WHAT ARE THE RISKS?

1)  Taiwan and China do not have an official dialogue mechanism, which could quickly spiral out of control.
2)  China may quickly overwhelm Taiwan with missile and cyber attacks before the US even has a chance to respond, though it is an open question whether Washington would, or could, come to Taipei’s aid.

 

HOW DO THE ARMED FORCES OF THE TWO SIDES COMPARE?

Taiwan’s military is  dwarfed by China’s People’s Liberation Army

 

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN A WAR BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA?

missiles and air attacks,  cyberattacks , naval blockade to force surrender

 

 

The Scary War Game Over Taiwan That the U.S. Loses Again and Again  8-17-2020  
 by Real Clear Investigations 

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/08/17/the_scary_war_game_over_taiwan_that_the_us_loses_again_and_again_124836.html 

 

  1) Taiwan Defense Act questions are hotly debated among military specialists and within the Pentagon, which have received scant notice in the mainstream press.

2)  The days of unfettered American military superiority in the Western Pacific are over.

Chn. attacks Taiwan  

(1)  China's strategy would be to get an invasion fleet across the Taiwan Strait before the U.S. could come to rescue. “And once that happens we'd face an Iwo Jima situation”

(2)  A standing Chinese force of 220,000 might directly attack Taiwan ;  China's A2/AD would prevent American forces from being able to penetrate anywhere near Taiwan.

(3)  American side would initially counter with Patriot anti-missile missiles.  Hundreds of the sheer number of Chinese missiles would reach their targets.

(4)  American  submarines around 20 or 25, each armed with about 12 torpedoes and 10 or so Harpoon missiles, would be able to sink some Chinese ships,  but not nearly enough to overcome China's flood-the-zone strategy

(5)  Vertical envelopment by parachute and by helicopters, and amphibious assault (old school) would be 15, maybe 20 different landings on the island, east, west, north, and south, all at once, some frogmen, some purely airborne troops

(6)  The Chinese would seize several beachheads and airports.  Their engineering prowess would come into play in deploying specialized floating dock apparatuses to ensure a steady flow of supplies and reinforcements — a key element.

(7) Taiwan would fold in a week or two.

 

US defends Taiwan  

(1) The key to defending Taiwan would require stopping China’s ability to transport a large occupying force the 90 miles across the Taiwan Strait.  American long-range anti-ship missiles, LRASMs, can be fired from ships as far as 600 miles away. Turning back invading Chinese in this way "comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours”
(2)   A second component of a Taiwan defense would be space-based reconnaissance using artificial intelligence to locate enemy targets, which the LRASMs would hit; a third would be an American version of flooding the zone, with unmanned undersea drones that could fire torpedoes at Chinese landing craft.

(3)  If the United States can succeed in building its alliances in Asia, that would be a powerful deterrent, because China can't afford to go to war with Asia.”

 

PS 1 )  an array of economic, diplomatic and cultural considerations inform a country's military decisions and actions.

2 ) Despite China’s often warlike rhetoric  – most analysts think it does not want to use military force on Taiwan.

 

 

The Diplomat , 9-13-2020
 
 https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/the-end-of-strategic-ambiguity-in-the-taiwan-strait/     The End of Strategic Ambiguity: Back to the Future by The Diplomat , 9-13-2020 

brief  

 The most likely course of action is increased political warfare against the Taiwan democratic system. Previously,  influence operations designed to persuade, with a focus on developing Taiwanese businessmen in China into a CCP-friendly constituency. While the overall emphasis has shifted to destructive subversion.  infiltrating   local civic organizations, the media, and the military,  to create paralysis and unrest to justify, and then assist with, an invasion.

The most dangerous course of action an invasion, achieving a fait accompli of securing Taiwan capitulation prior to U.S. intervention.  To achieve this,  the first is an extension of political warfare techniques into the kinetic realm: system destruction warfare, meant to paralyze the opponent’s leadership,  the second is the integration of AI and algorithms into operations.   “Intelligent operations,” with an “algorithm game” to “quickly and accurately predict the situation on the battlefield” and seize the initiative.

 

If China invades Taiwan ...
 responses from
US president Trump,  state secretary Pompeo

FoxNews,  Newsweek, 9-22-2020 In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Trump too talked tough on the flashpoint, but declined to specify how he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait

"They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems."

FoxNews,  8-23-2020, Q:

1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors."
2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?

Trump :

1)  They're coming to this country.  

2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,”  “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this"  "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it"

It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing

 

Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020 Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises.

https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/   Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources

FoxNews,  6-1-2020

 

   QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? 

  

      SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
 
 washingtonexaminer, 10-7-2020
in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene
 SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan

 

Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020:   Pompeo:  U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china

 

 

news

 

 

 NewsWeek, 7-21-2020

 

Once military conflict breaks out -  

A slight plurality of 31 percent

assigned blame to

Chinese President Xi Jinping,

while 30 percent of respondents

said they believed both Xi and

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen

were responsible

and 24 percent blamed Tsai.

 

 

 

◆  Eurasian Times
 7-9-2020:

 

The Tsai authority knows that

Taiwan  cannot compete with

the mainland on its own,

and therefore turns to Washington

and is willing to be used.
Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’

Of The US.

 

Reuters, Japan Times, 9-8-2020:  Eyeing China, Taiwan urges alliance against 'aggressive actions'

 

●   NHK Japan, 7-20-2020:Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has warned that the island will face intensifying pressure from China.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200719_18/

 

●  Washington Post 7-22-2020: the Taiwanese fm : urging "extreme caution" in the island's dealings with a Chinese
 leadership in Beijing that he described as both increasingly emboldened and insecure.

 

●  Daily Mail, 7-22-2020:  Foreign Minister Wu:  'The threat is on the rise' !! 
 
intrusions 'happened almost every day' in June and were 'much more frequent' than what the government had disclosed to the public.
 China has also made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan.  ( ps: media didn't report it's on an almost daily basis since Jun.  )

 

 

 CNN 2-19-2020 exclusive interview with Taiwanese president Tsai I. W. : "What we are expecting is, after withstanding

the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" .... 

"Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" ...  

Therefore, Taiwan's fears soar as
China repeats threat to INVADE the small island nearby.

 

 

 

  ◆  Washington Post (7-22-2020) reports:  
In Jan. 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered
 an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for
unification talks or face annexation
 by force.
  However, Taiwan's government was
 
tight-lipped about this ultimatum, otherwise pro-Independence Tsai I. W. may not continue in
presidential office in 2020, because,
according to
National Interest (6-16-2020):

more than 60.3 percent of the respondents
 opposed Taiwan's independence

if it is followed by
China’s military invasion...
 

 

 

 

News:  Express UK, 9-18-2020: China crackdown: US to make HUGE weapons deal with Taiwan as WW3 fears soar  Newsweek, 9-19-2020: U.S. Slams China's 'Aggressive, Destabilizing' Military Actions During Taiwan Visit Bloomberg, 9-18-2020: Eighteen Chinese military aircraft  rarely crossed the median line amid U.S. envoy visit  Express, 9-11-2020:  China' s  'provocative' military drill was carried out on the Taiwanese side of what is known as the median line of the Taiwan Strait...  Taiwan holds emergency meeting    Reuters, 9-10-2020: China over large-scale air and naval drills off its southwestern coast, a serious provocation and a threat to international air traffic National Interest, 8-28-2020: Could China Successfully Blockade Taiwan?  China hopes direct action will yield clean and swift results, letting it present Asia, America, and the world a fait accompli — a done deal  CNN, 9-3-2020:  a forcible takeover of Taiwan could be a bad bet for Xi either way -- US help or not   ◆  Wall Street Journal 8-30-2020: Fearing Hong Kong’s Fate, Taiwan Moves to Bolster Its Military Against China   Forbes, 8-24-2020: China Can Capture Taiwan In Three Days, Say Former U.S. Officials US Defense Gov., annual Report to US Congress, 9-1-2020: The PRC appears willing to defer the use of military force as long as it considers that unification with Taiwan could be negotiated over the long-term and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits Forbes, 9-2-2020: Even though the likelihood of that ( invasion of Taiwan) happening remains low, the report (US Defense) shows that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor  ◆  VOA, 8-21-2020:  a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan... could happen as early as next year... the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity... Joseph Biden:  the U.S. has not been obligated to defend Taiwan ... There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan  ◆  SCMP, 8-21-2020:  There is disturbing evidence that US President Donald Trump considers relations with Taiwan expendable in the context of a deal he could make with China  Daily Express, 8-13-2020:  World War 3: China 'ready' for conflict with US over Taiwan row ... Peking University Bo: there could be parties with the US military aiming to create a small-scale and “controllable” conflict with their Chinese counterparts  ◆  Foreign Policy, 8-20-2020: Suicide reveals Taiwanese army dangerously unprepared for Chinese invasion Newsweek, 8-31-2020: "recognition" of the island's government, would very likely trigger a long-threatened military reaction from Beijing that could envelop the PRC, the United States and Taiwan in a devastating nuclear war ... Most important, the United States should abandon the policy of "strategic ambiguity"  ◆ Bloomberg, 8-20-2020:  The danger of a Chinese assault on Taiwan is growing. And the U.S., which has an ambiguous security commitment to Taipei, might well lose if it joined such a war on Taiwan’s behalf Global Times, 8-31-2020:  US intends to force China to 'fire first shot' over Taiwan Guardian, 8-18-2020: The increasingly assertive behaviour from China suggests that Beijing’s options to annex Taiwan are shrinking N.Y. Times, 8-17-2020:  U.S. Tries to Bolster Taiwan’s Status, Short of Recognizing Sovereignty ◆  Asia Times, 8-18-2020: China’s ultimate fear is US recognition of Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty, which if granted would almost certainly place the two superpowers on an armed collision course  Washington Post 8-17-2020: so far, our words and sanctions have been cost-free, if this confrontation were to move to the next level, would we be ready ? Straits Times, 8-17-2020: Taiwan's tightrope walk between US and China Daily Express, 8-15-2020: CHINA will look to punish Taiwan after the US Health Secretary, Alex Azar, visited this week and will eventually "invade" the state, "The Chinese will seek to punish Taiwan because they can’t punish Americans" Politico,  L.A. Time, 8-10-2020: ... appear to show how the Trump administration is willing to defy Beijing’s threats and promote an alternative to Chinese Communist Party authoritarianism   ◆  NY Times, 8-9-2020: There are concerns that as the U.S. election approaches, the Trump administration — which has sought to rally opposition to China as Mr. Trump trails in the polls — could make an overture toward Taiwan that it can’t easily walk back  ◆  The Week (UK) , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020 : FT  isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?" New Zealand Herald, 8-9-2020: Tension reaching boiling point! Beijing mobilises invasion craft along coast,  satellite images reportedly show amphibious armoured vehicles and mobile missile launchers massing at military bases near the island nation...series of "combat readiness" exercises over the disputed South China Sea, with combat aircraft and naval vessels...  ◆ Foreign Policy 8-7-2020:  Some hawkish voices in Washington have even suggested arming Taiwan with nuclear weapons... Instead, the US should urgently provide additional conventional military aid to address the dangerous shift .  ◆ National Interest, 8-6-2020:  the odds are uncomfortably high that the U.S. forces would be defeated in a war with China over Taiwan. What’s worse, even achieving a tactical victory could result in a devastating strategic loss.  If China committed all-out to seize Taiwan, then it could accomplish its objective in a finite time period, measured in days to weeks.   ◆  Washington Post, 7-22-2020: in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. But as a precondition for talks, China demanded that Tsai acknowledge the “one China” principle...  Inside China, the government has faced growing calls from hawkish military pundits and nationalist commentators to grasp the current strategic window to seize Taiwan   ◆  Bloomberg 7-20-2020:  Beijing is no doubt waiting to see the outcome of the U.S. presidential election before taking any more significant actions.     ◆ Financial Times 7-12-2020 (Taiwan) Politicians are afraid to discuss these issues (reservists) with the public because they believe our people are not willing to sacrifice ...  www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd           More news ? ... click !
 

 

 

 

 

 

pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Microsoft Bing, 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 8-2-2020 ( upper items are ads. )

 

 

  pic.:  No.1 "Taiwan military" on US Bing,  11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 7-26-2020, 6-28-2020, 6-3-2020, 5-30-2020

 

 

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (TW) 11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 7-26-2020, 5-20-2020

 

 

◆  pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" (Chinese version"台灣軍隊") on Bing,  11-14-2020, 9-26-2020, 9-3-2020, 8-22-2020, 8-8-2020, 6-27-2020, 6-15-2020, 6-8-2020, 6-2-2020

ps: TTV 7-3-2020: a marine amphibious landing craft (similar to pic. above) was overturned in an exercise

 

 

 

 

  Taiwanese military  VS.  communist China's military [ People's Liberation Army ]     

       

China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2020)

                Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2020 
 

 US Department of Defense 2020 report, 9-1-2020 /  Chinese military VS. Taiwanese military

the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor

 

https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

contrast

 

Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military

   pic. left :   Ground Forces - Taiwan vs. China ;      pic. right :   Naval Forces - Taiwan vs. China 

 

 

Forbes 9-2-2020 fig.: https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/09/02/the-military-imbalance-in-the-taiwan-strait-in-2020-infographic/#2aeed4fc4ca5

China has also made huge progress building amphibious assault ships and tank-landing vessels that would be essential in launching a successful invasion of Taiwan.

 the China Military Power Report estimates that China's warhead stockpile is now in the low 200s and that number is expected to double to at least 400-500 by 2030

 

   pic. left :   Air Forces - Taiwan vs. China ;      pic. right :  China's Rocket Forces

 

TW
Defense
 

TAIWAN’S DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES 

(1)  China’s multi-decademilitary modernization effort has eroded or negated many of the military advantages that Taiwan has historically enjoyed the context of a cross-Strait conflict.

(2)  Taiwan is taking important steps to compensate for the growing disparities – building its war reserve stocks, growing its defense-industrial base, improving joint operations and crisis response capabilities,and strengthening its officer and noncommissioned officer corps – these improvements only partially address Taiwan’s declining defensive advantages.

(3)  The modified strategy stresses enhanced asymmetric capabilities, as well as suggesting greater reliance on Taiwan’s Air Force and Navy.

(4)  The transition (active duty forces to all-volunteer force ) has slowed due to severe difficulties recruiting volunteers.

(5)  Taiwan has stated that it is working to develop new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare. Some specific areas of emphasis include offensive and defensive information & EW,high-speed stealth vessels ,shore-based mobile missiles  rapid mining and minesweeping  unmanned aerial systems and critical infrastructure protection.

 

Chn.
attacks
CHINA’S COURSES OF ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN

These circumstances PLA would use forces have included:
1. Formal declaration of Taiwan independence; 2. Undefined moves toward Taiwan independence; 3. Internal unrest in Taiwan; 4. Taiwan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons; 5. Indefinite delays in the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue on unification; 6. Foreign intervention in Taiwan’s internal affairs;  7. Foreign forces stationed on Taiwan.
 

(1) China could pursue a measured approach by signaling its readiness to use force or conduct punitive actions against Taiwan. The PLA could also conduct a more comprehensive campaign designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue under China’s terms.
(2) China would attempt to delay and defeat intervention in an asymmetric, limited war of short duration. In the event of a protracted conflict, China might choose to escalate cyberspace, space, or nuclear activities in an attempt to end the conflict, or it might choose to fight to a stalemate and pursue a political settlement.
(3) China has a range of options for military campaigns against Taiwan, from an air and maritime blockade to a full-scale amphibious invasion to seize and occupy some or all of Taiwan or its offshore islands.

  Blockades  ―  kinetic blockades of maritime and air traffic, including a cut-off of Taiwan’s vital imports, to force Taiwan’s capitulation. Large-scale missile strikes and possible seizures of Taiwan’s offshore islands would accompany a Joint Blockade in an attempt to achieve a rapid Taiwan surrender, while at the same time, posturing air and naval forces to conduct weeks or months of blockade operations if necessary. China will also likely complement its air and maritime blockade operations with concurrent electronic warfare (EW), network attacks, and information operations (IO) to further isolate Taiwan’s authorities and populace and to control the international narrative of the conflict.

   Limited Force or Coercive Options  ―  a variety of disruptive, punitive, or lethal military actions in a limited campaign against Taiwan, probably in conjunction with overt and clandestine economic and political activities supported by a variety of IO to shape perceptions or undercut the effectiveness or legitimacy of the Taiwan authorities. Such a campaign could include computer network or limited kinetic attacks against Taiwan’s political, military, and economic infrastructure to induce fear in Taiwan and degrade the Taiwan population’s confidence in their leaders.
 Air and Missile Campaign   ―   China could use missile attacks and precision air strikes against air defense systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan’s defenses, neutralize Taiwan’s leadership, or break the Taiwan people’s resolve.
  Landing Campaign  ―  The most prominent of these, the Joint Island Landing Campaign, envisions a complex operation relying on coordinated, interlocking campaigns for logistics, air, and naval support, and EW. The objective would be to break through or circumvent shore defenses, establish and build a beachhead, transport personnel and materiel to designated landing sites in the north or south of Taiwan’s western coastline, and launch attacks to seize and occupy key targets or the entire island.

(4) The PRC appears willing to defer the use of military force as long as it considers that unification with Taiwan could be negotiated over the long-term and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits

 

PS

Forbes, 9-2-2020: the U.S. Defense 's  annual guide to the Soviet military 1981 ~ 1991 is naked propaganda chock full inaccurate or misleading data, unfair comparisons and outright lies, the Pentagon’s propaganda campaign continues, its China's Military Power Report  mostly portrays China as a seemingly unbeatable martial monolith with limitless resources and ambitions and few viable rivals, and  ignores Taiwan’s missiles. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/02/wad-up-the-pentagons-propagandistic-china-report-and-toss-it-in-the-trash/#768072865437  

 Global Times, 9-2-2020: Chinese Defense Ministry: the Pentagon report  is "full of zero-sum game and cold war mentality," and apart from stigmatizing China's national defense expenditure and nuclear policy, it's also creating tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, which is a terrible mistake, China expresses firm opposition to it.  The report also said"China is already ahead of the United States in certain areas," such as "shipbuilding," "land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles," and "integrated air defense systems."  it's an old trick to ask for a big budget, because when Congress learns that "China is doing better than the US, they will get nervous and pass the budget easily."     https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1199731.shtml

 The Hill, 9-3-2020: Taiwan needs to take advantage of asymmetric defense options, using its natural urban and mountainous terrain to deter Chinese attack, and Small, mobile and lethal systems such as Stinger surface-to-air missilesJavelin anti-tank missiles, naval mines, and unmanned underwater vehicles, in conjunction with Taiwan’s indigenous HF-3

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/514481-how-taiwan-with-us-assistance-can-deter-chinas-overt-aggression

 

  Forbes, 7-17-2020  the Taiwanese military plans to let the Chinese get close  —  then lob thousands of missiles at them.  Taiwan's objectives are to deter and delay potential invasion ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/07/17/if-china-invades-taiwan-could-target-shanghai-and-beijing-with-cruise-missiles/#438bd91230ff

   Bloomberg, 9-22-2020:  Taiwan president Tsai does have one major problem: The Communist Party is threatening her life, with its Global Times newspaper saying over the weekend she would be “wiped out” in a war if she violated China’s anti-secession law.   www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-21/china-s-war-rhetoric-pushes-taiwan-to-boost-u-s-economic-ties

 

●  The Hill, Hudson Org., 9-17-2020:  an assault on Taiwan would not end in a quick victory. Taiwan’s armed forces draw from a robust reservist pool; it knows its territory far better than its adversary and will receive unimpeachable civilian support in a conflict. To win, China must occupy and subjugate the entire island — and an insurgency, based in Taiwan’s mountainous center, is to be expected. While this is a fight China considers winnable, it must bring to bear all its capabilities.  China’s military is built to fight a short war, relying on long-range missiles and progressively layered defenses to isolate areas near the Chinese coastline. By raising the costs of American intervention, China seeks a political-military solution to its central strategic problem

https://www.hudson.org/research/16381-the-u-s-election-could-be-a-danger-for-taiwan-an-opportunity-for-china

●   Economist,10-9-2020:  China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...  Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky.  Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  

 

●   Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  Given present trends, it could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.  With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

 

●   Bloomberg, 10-8-2020:  Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,”  “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay. We underestimate the CCP’s capacity for radical decision making at our peril "

 

●   Politico,10-8-2020: Taiwan’s not ready to defend itself...lack of defense capacity and their lack of depth...What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out”

 

  Financial Times (UK),10-6-2020:  If Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers. China has a different playbook - coercion

 

●  Hong Kong Apple Daily ( 《蘋果動新聞》), 10-9-2020 :  China's PLA will attack Taiwan by Blitzkrieg or  lightning war to seal off and cut off the transportation (communication) way between Taiwan and Japan to avoid Taiwan's high-ranking officials running away and foreign country coming to rescue ; The better landing place for PLA large force will not be narrow Tamsui River or west coast, instead, very likely weak-defense east coast such as 宜蘭(YiLan) .  Once main force came, Taiwan is almost finished.  https://tw.appledaily.com/international/20201009/3HGWOL27GJDTZGS7GGYLDOJB3A/  by 台灣國防安全研究院國防資源與產業研究所長蘇紫雲、中正大學戰略暨國際事務研究所兼任助理教授林穎佑,以及澳門軍事評論員黃東

 

 Global Times , 10-9-2020: Taiwan’s military drills ‘a futile cover-up show’ against PLA operations.  The PLA has overwhelming military advantages over the island in terms of combat readiness of the troops, the advanced level of technology for weapons and equipment, numbers, tactics and strategies   https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202977.shtml

 

  Wall Street Journal 8-30-2020: Fearing Hong Kong’s Fate, Taiwan Moves to Bolster Its Military Against China

     

●  Financial Times (UK), 10-1-2020  (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

 

Taiwanese military vs. Chinese military    (https://www.ft.com/content/947f568f-a763-4d14-93bb-157e2f5df625) :

Chinese military superiority /  key:

 

contrast

Chinese military Taiwanese military
100,000 active personnel personnel  2m 163,000
50 combat-capable fixed-wing aircraft aircraft 3,330 568
5 submarines submarines 59 4
5 surface vessels above corvette size vessels 107   26
200 main battle tanks tanks 5,850    665
20 surface-to-surface missiles missiles  603    12
Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020:  The Taiwanese military is dwarfed by its Chinese counterpart  –  Taiwan has less than a fifth of China’s planes, a 10th of its armed forces personnel and just o.1% of its missiles.

NIKKEI asia review (Japan) , 9-25-2020:  Militarily, nuclear-armed China dwarfs Taiwan and has more than 10 times the budget and soldiers. It is reportedly negotiating with Taiwan a new $7 billion deal on seven major weapon systems, including sea mines, missiles and drones.

 aljazeera, 10-8-2020: China was engaged in a significant naval build-up probably not seen since Germany’s attempt to compete with Britain’s Royal Navy prior to WWI... to push US navy back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan”

 

 

  Forbes, 8-24-2020: China Can Capture Taiwan In Three Days, Say Former U.S. Officials

     

  Reuters, aljazeera, 9-22-2020: once Chinese aircraft were spotted Taiwanese fighters had just five minutes to scramble their fighters

       www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/taiwan-tells-china-airspace-incursions-rise-200922055823777.html

 

●  Express UK, 9-21-2020: Malcolm Davis, a former defence adviser, added the “probes” into Taiwan’s side of the line could be an effort to “provoke the Taiwanese air force to ‘shoot first’” which could justify further violence.

 

  Forbes, 9-21-2020:  The air-launched SLAM-ER missiles and ground-launched Harpoon missiles arguably are the most important—and, to China, provocative—weapons in the current deal. “Taiwan is finally buying what it really needs to implement its asymmetric defense strategy,” Evan Medeiros, a Georgetown University security expert, told The New York Times.

 

●  East Asia Forum, Based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University

      Taiwan’s security seems increasingly at risk. Taiwan’s real threat, however, is not in invasion but China’s mixture of sabre-rattling and integration-luring.

      Though a conventional war may not be imminent, there are still unresolved vulnerabilities in Taiwan’s security. A recent debate on whether a PLA invasion could be curbed demonstrates how Taiwan’s partisan division extends to defence strategy disagreement. Efforts to boost Taiwan’s asymmetric military capabilities will stall if China successfully erodes Taiwan’s morale through soft strategies.

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/09/12/cross-strait-integration-by-force-or-favour/

     

●  eurasian Times, 9-4-2020 : Forbes David Axe: the US's Chinese Military Power report missed the most important context by ignoring the extreme difficulty any army will have to face attempting an invasion of an island like Taiwan. Taiwan possesses a geographical advantage as the strait is stormy and the terrain between the likely landing zones and Taipei is rugged and mountainous.    eurasian Times, 8-15-2020 :Taiwan’s New ‘Training Jets’ Are Capable Bombers That Can Strike Deep Into China

●  Express UK, 9-11-2020: CHINA has conducted large-scale military exercises in an air defence zone controlled by Taiwan, leading ministers there to hold an emergency press conference.  they were carried out on the Taiwanese side of what is known as the median line of the Taiwan Strait – an unofficial airspace boundary between Taiwan and China.  https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1334152/South-China-Sea-news-Taiwan-US-military-drills-peace-region-threat-world-war-3

 

●  Bloomberg, 7-30-2020: Global Times (Chn): China wants peace but “is fully capable of destroying all of Taiwan’s military installations within a few hours, before seizing the island shortly after. ...researchers:  While the People’s Liberation Army would seek to bombard the island with missiles and cyberattacks to quickly neutralize Taiwanese forces before they could fight back, the chances of pulling off such a comprehensive surprise assault are slim, ... Any failure to immediately knock out Taiwan’s forces, he wrote, would allow the island to repel an amphibious invasion or sustained bombing campaign...www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown

     

●   Sunday Guardian (UK) 6-27-2020: Should China conquer Taiwan, that would free up about 50% of total PLA strength for potential deployment to the current Western Theater Command, facing India.   "Six Wars China Must Fight in the Next 50 Years":  by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan,... Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.  https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/china-just-getting-started

  Forbes, 6-3-2020:   Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.

●    L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster.

   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". ... (brief)

  Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities.   PS:  Taiwan's United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020:  so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only skin-deep ...

  Forbes, 7-17-2020:  the war could end quickly. Chinese rockets could pummel Taiwanese forces into submission...  The worst-case scenario is that the invasion gets hung up on Taiwan’s fortified island of Penghu ... the war drags out for many bloody weeks.

 

●   Apple Daily, editorial, 8-14-2020:  Taiwan military takes a very weird strategy:  Facing PLA's first wave strike, Taiwan's warplanes stay inside tunnels and caves, warships leave Taiwan, and await the US military comes to rescue, then they will return and join the war.  The commentator questions how can those fighter jets take off if the runways are bombed by PLA's bomber and missiles ?     tw.appledaily.com/headline/20200814/KDQ5JJAYQUR5JLE6EIIXK5VJM4/

ps: When studying in the US, I learnt from library that the highway can be served as war-time runway, so maybe those tunnels can be extended to highways nearby in case

  Forbes, 7-10-2020:  Failing to capture Penghu could, perhaps for a very long time, end Beijing’s reunification-by-force gambit 

 

●  Express UK, 9-14-2020:  Beijing’s sabre-rattling over Taiwan is hardly new, but … we’ve seen a significant stepping up of Chinese military activity and an intense propaganda effort to isolate Taiwan and assert political primacy  in the region.”a “pre-emptive effort to coerce Taiwan would be immensely risky for Xi, but leaders under pressure do risky things

 

  Forbes Advocate, 9-13-2020:   China's military capabilities dwarf those of the island of 23 million in numerical terms, although any invasion of Taiwan would be complex and would carry major political risks  https://www.forbesadvocate.com.au/story/6922776/china-says-us-poses-threat-to-world-peace/?cs=5461 

 

●  US News , 9-20-2020: China's air force on Saturday put out a video showing its nuclear capable H-6 bombers, which have been involved in many Chinese fly-bys of Taiwan, exercising.  www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-20/taiwan-president-says-drills-show-china-is-threat-to-whole-region

 

●   Apple Daily, editorial, 7-6-2020:  a marine amphibious landing craft of Marine '99 army-brigade' ( main force of Taiwan military)  was overturned in an exercise recently, Taiwan military's training and combat capacity are suspicious if these accidents happened repeatedly.   China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion:  sudden increasing pressure to war preparedness and hasty work probably are main reasons resulting in many accidents and incidents happened in recent years.  China Times, 7-7-2020, opinion:  Due to Taiwan president making official inspection, the military combines 4 drills to one per year, and transforms Han Kuang Exercise to be a big show, which damage military training ,  high percentage of military officers hence are not familiar with combat mission.
 
www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20200707004603-262105?chdtv  ;  www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200707006231-260417?chdtv   ;  

  China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

             Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019

 

"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ...

aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019  that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan,

China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue.

 

The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare".   Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing.  (see pic. right)

 

usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.

 

 

 

◆  Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization  4-28-2020  https://news.usni.org/2020/04/28/report-to-congress-on-chinese-naval-modernization-2

      April 24, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress.

◆ 
Chinese aircraft-carrier,  6-22-2020,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme

 

      Core Chinese Military Capabilities: Today’s  PLA  is  still  far  from  being  able  to deploy large numbers of conventional forces globally, but China has developed nuclear, space, cyberspace, and other capabilities  that can reach potential adversaries across the globe.

 

 

 

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany,  11-14-2020, 5-20-2020

 

 

    

 Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China.  Therefore, Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as annual report above.  (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school,  National ChungCheng University)

      

●  United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020  "國軍「官不聊生」實況"   https://udn.com/news/story/11091/4547068?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2
         Taiwan military lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments , which results in all kinds of corrupt practices, such as soldiers/officers under the table imported stuffs from outsiders, kept equipments on the shelves to avoid damages, or made fake check list ....... for years, Taiwan military authority invested logistics sources far from needed. (國軍長年對後勤資源的投注,距離理想狀況差太遠。)   Apple Daily, editorial, 5-10-2020: Taiwan's military logistics system is a hot potato, no one wants to touch it. (國軍後勤體制是燙手的痼疾)

●  New York times,  5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China  (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

       We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

       Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

●  New York times,  5-18-2017: For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States.  Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue.  Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals/

 /  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion    ( ps: China's Baidu, 10-15-2017: Taiwanese reservists 3 million in total;  Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  

 


 

 

 

  nuclear bomb neutron bomb hydrogen bomb
countries US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Israel, India, N. Korea, UK, France US, Russia, China, India, France US, Russia, China,  France, UK, N. Korea


 

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI "年代向 錢看"Next TV news, 5-8-2020

 

Daily Express, 9-1-2020: nuclear weapons - Rus 6850,US 6550,France 300,Chn 280,UK 215,Pakistan 145,
India 135,Israel 80

pic. left:  At 5-7-2020, Taiwan Intelligence chief replied a law-maker with phrase :

 Taiwan should pursue good fortune and avoid disaster once military conflict between China and the US occurring

 in the western Pacific near Taiwan, we won't get in the trouble water ...
 

 

 Washington Post,  5-21-20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need to expand China's nuclear
and ballistic missile arsenal after the State Department published a paper arguing for the fitting of low-yield
nuclear warheads onto submarine-launched missiles.

 

the essence of China unification issue is " China confronting the US" 

pic    right: both China and the US own nuclear bomb ,Neutron bomb, hydrogen bomb 

( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI 

 


 

 pic: For Strategic deterrence,Taiwan needs 500 pieces of  雲峰飛彈 missiles

雲峰飛彈 - 维基百科,自由的百科全书

 

 

●   South China Morning Post, 7-11-2020:   Missiles are a key element of Taiwan’s defence strategy,
 Taiwan has a stockpile of missiles that by some estimates is the world’s biggest in terms of number per unit of area.  the Taipei-based China Times newspaper has put the total at more than 6,000. 
 brief :
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3092791/taiwan-missile-tech-aimed-keeping-pla-attack-bay 

 

●  Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons.

Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon. “The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that can survive an
initial Chinese attack and be resilient and lethal for weeks or months,” according to Scott Harold, an analyst at RAND, a California think tank.


 

 

  Voice of America, 5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out already
with surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles and 66 aircraft in the past. 

 

South China Morning Post  (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric)
Taiwanese missiles are increasing in range and are capable of striking cities in inner China, including strategic targets

 


The Liberty Times,  United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020:
 Former Chinese military general
喬良 being interviewed by South China Morning Post, and Hong Kong
media (
紫荊雜誌 Bauhinia Magazine...) concluded that China can't expect "Peaceful reunification" any more, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force
 (
「文統無望、只能武統」), when the right time (China-US arm wrestling game done) comes, Chinese army will kill any one on their way,
no matter monk or Buda.   The Chinese govt. responded that There is no room for negotiations when it comes to China's reunification.

 

  Liberty Times,  7-29-2020:  The PLA can't defeat Taiwan military within 72 hours, but it's hard to tell once more than about 5000 special agents / sleepers in the shadow join the war.  /   林保華 column writer
Formosa TV, 2-25-2019:  Taipei mayor Ko: American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.  
  CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week. 
The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter
.
 
Global Times, Mar 2018:  Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.  

 


 

    

 ●   The Drive, 9-22-2020: In peacetime, the presence of the Wan Chien missiles on Penghu is in keeping with Taiwan’s strategy of presenting Beijing with a credible deterrent, and should that deterrent fail, they would help defend against a PLA attack and possible invasion, ...  www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36654/taiwan-displays-air-launched-cruise-missiles-at-air-base-in-heart-of-taiwan-strait

 

 ●  Xinhua (China) 2020-09-21 :  China will take legitimate countermeasures in response to recent visits of U.S. high-ranking officials to Taiwan, including measures targeting relevant individuals   http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-09/21/c_139385296.htm

 

  ●  Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 :The 1st step for Taiwanese military reform is HONESTY ( 國軍改革 從誠實開始)
          Taiwan navy under fire for letting sailors infected with coronavirus into community (South China Morning Post, 4-21-2020), Taiwan will quarantine 700 sailors after three came down with the coronavirus following a mission to a nearby Pacific island. (New York Post, 4-18-20)
          About Taiwan Navy's 'Friendly Fleet''s story, no matter declassified or easy-to-master info. , Taiwan' s military issued different versions within one day, even played a slapstick show - slapping face each other.  The public strongly questioned their honesty.   The military failed to handle small risk like this, how can we trust their ability to face a war.  (brief)    UDN (聯合報社論)/十人一口罩  , editorial 4- 21- 2020: In average, Taiwanese government allocated one face mask to ten soldiers before the infection event, how to assure army's combat capability and basic quality ??
  ●  Apple Daily (
蘋論), editorial, 5-1-2020 :Since taking enlisting-system, Taiwan military always failed to recruit enough number of soldiers, the quality of candidates to join the military- school examinations is not as good as expected...

 

Obscurantisme in democratic Taiwan  ―   'Psychological Warfare' strategy of defense

Some Taiwan's popular media and politicians spoke loudly about N.Y. Times (8-17-2020): "U.S. Tries to Bolster Taiwan’s Status", but left out N.Y. Times (8-30-2020): "Taiwan cannot count on US as a matter of strategy" or Economist (8-30-2020): "The island cannot rely on American help".   Even Taiwan's former president Ma was lashed out by lots of media and politicians for his opinion "US army won't come to the island's rescue" .   The authors (Retired vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral James Winnefeld Jr., ( 2011 to 2015), CIA former director Michael Morell ) and the US Naval Institute's Proceedings were sort of put down for similar reason ―  their article in Proceedings (2020-August)  predicts it's 'too late' for the US comes to rescue Taiwan after the war broke out.  
Some Taiwanese in power
intended to apply a thick coat of whitewash, misled many of their nationals to believe the US army will or very likely will come to Taiwan's rescue once Chinese PLA attacks Taiwan, despite the majority of Americans opposing the use of US troops to Taiwan-China war, and quite some Western media giving  "wishful thinking" warnings.  Brookings 9-4-2020: caution that improvements in Chinese military power may mean that indirect defense of Taiwan ( fundamental decoupling of our economy from China. etc...  they might not immediately rescue Taiwan) could be better in some contingencies.

Sept. 4, 2020

 

 Han Kuang exercises,  a major annual event for Taiwan armed forces

 

media

analysis & comments (brief)

UK
 

 

US

 NBC News,

7-17-2020

 
Although Taiwan's military is well trained and equipped with mostly U.S.-made hardware, China has huge numerical superiority.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taiwan-conducts-major-annual-military-exercise-amid-rising-china-tensions-n1234023 

 

 Associated Press, Yahoo News,

 7-16-2020

 
 One helicopter crashed when returning to base from another drill, killing the pilot and co-pilot.

 

https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-holds-military-drills-against-053222062.html

 Reuters, 

 7-16-2020

 

F-16 and domestically made Ching-kuo fighter jets launched strikes and tanks raced across inland scrub, firing shells to destroy targets on the beach.
China is adding advanced equipment such as stealth fighters and new ballistic missiles.

 

China Global Times,

 7-16-2020, 7-21-2020

 

 The military mishap during the Han Kuang drills indicates that Taiwan's most important war games are becoming increasingly unrealistic. It also shows a widening military gap across the Taiwan Straits.

 

The counter-landing drill was designed to simulate PLA tactics, the exercise started with Taiwan military's fighter jets attacking the landing fleet, with a warship as support, after which artillery forces, attack helicopters and tanks fired and eventually "effectively stopped the hostile forces' landing operation," Taiwan media reported.
 

After watching the drill, military observers soon pointed out that its setting is nearly impossible, because it assumed Taiwan would automatically hold air superiority, Taiwan's weapons and equipment would remain intact prior to the counter-landing operation, and its troops would not suffer losses during the battle.

According to a computer combat simulation published by the Chinese mainland's Naval and Merchant Ships magazine in May, as well as many other military analysts, a reunification-by-force operation by the PLA will very likely start with intensive waves of missile and rocket attacks that would neutralize most of Taiwan's air defense capabilities, and PLA warplanes would then seize air superiority and sweep enemies, with PLA warships, including two aircraft carriers, also engaging in naval battles.
PLA landing operations would take place after this first round of assault, meaning that the scenario Taiwan military simulated will not happen, because any weapons and troops they deployed in the drills will be mostly destroyed before their counter-landing operation,
Song Zhongping, a military expert, said the exercises are a naive and meaningless show, as they were set under ideal conditions.

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194770.shtmlhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195064.shtml

 

 

 

   

 

 Why does Beijing keep sending military aircrafts into Taiwan's airspace ?
 

  National Interest,
6-27-2020

  in an overt attempt to gather intelligence, conduct reconnaissance missions, and intercept U.S planes in the region.

◆  Global Times, 
6-28-2020

 
the PLA operations from both the east and southwest of Taiwan indicate that the PLA is training to suppress the potential US and Japanese reinforcements coming from Guam and the Ryukyu Islands through the Miyako Strait east of Taiwan and through the Bashi, Balintang, and Babuyan channels southwest of Taiwan.  The PLA could use these operations to effectively lockdown the area from foreign forces while ensuring that Taiwan's forces cannot escape...


 

◆  New York Times, 6-26-2020

China’s Military Provokes Its Neighbors, but the Message Is for the United States... When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...

 

◆  EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020

many missions speculatively aimed at intercepting US jets flying near the island.

 

◆  Express (UK),  6-30-2020

Observers claimed the intrusion was both for practice and to caution the US against defending Taiwan

 

 

 

 
 

China's strategy of attacking Taiwan 

  type English Chinese
1 cyber warfare PLA launchs cyber attacks, to penetrate CPU of Air Force Air Defense and Missile Command (Taipei), Republic of China Armed Forces Joint Operations Command Center (Taipei), etc. 網路攻擊, 入侵中央控制電腦, 劍指防空指揮系統, 三軍衡山所等
2 ‘unrestricted’ fire-power warfare PLA Rocket Forcetroops bombing like heavy rains the entire Taiwan 火箭軍彈雨轟台
3 marine war PLA aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines attack Eastern Taiwan and paralyze 佳山基地 ( main air force base ) 航空母艦戰群, 核潛艇, 進攻台灣東部, 癱瘓佳山基地
4 economic warfare Cutting off marine traffic to Southern China sea, etc 截斷海上交通線
5 invasion of remote islands Invasion of Kinmen(金門),   Pratas,   Itu Aba Island / Taiping Island (太平島) 攻奪外島

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIrQ2krhTE   Next TV, 5-26-2020

The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020 (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11703654/china-deploys-aircraft-carriers-stoke-tensions-us-warning-new-cold-war/)
in the China's state-controlled Naval and Merchant Ships Magazine:
In around four minutes, Taiwan’s air power is badly damaged and those Taiwanese aircraft that have already taken off, will be shot down with S400 missiles.
"After nearly two hours … all anti-air defence bases are destroyed, and most of Taiwan’s warplanes are damaged. What’s awaiting them is the second round of attacks after dawn."
 

 United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
          Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.    China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

        According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

    Formosa TV, 2-25-2019:  Taipei mayor Ko: some American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.  
    
  ◆ CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week.  ps: The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
      
◆  Global Times, Mar 2018:  Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.  

 

   Global FirePower, 2020 :  Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2.  Russia 3.  Chn 4.  India  5.  Japan  6.  S Korea  16.  Indonesia  17. Saudi Arabia  19.  Australia  22. Vietnam  23. Thai  25. N korea    26.  TW  35.  Myanmar  44. Malaysia  45. UAE  46.  Banladesh  48.  Philippines  51. Singapore ).  In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18.   However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan;  Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc. 

●   New York times,  5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China  (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

       We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

       Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

    

   Will China strike on Taiwan

 

   
 
 

  FEARS soar                                                                                                            

     Express (UK), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan.   Express (UK) 6-10-2020: South China Sea crisis Taiwan invasion fears soar.  Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-  protest   express.co.uk  5-30-2020:  Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring TaiwanFinancial Times  5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone.   Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China.  https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d  The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020: ...  the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland.  The New York Times at 11-4-2017 noted that Taiwan’s historical advantages ( geography and the US support )  in deterring a potential attack has been “eroded or negated” in that Chinese military is "more potent". 

 

 

 

          

  ◆  Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020: China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity (~2022), experts fear
  ◆  New York Times,10-5-2020: China’s tone shifts toward fighting words, the torrent of bombast online and in state media in recent weeks is potentially ominous. The prospect of war remains remote, but the risk is that the propaganda could translate into more provocative actions.
  ◆  Bloomberg, 10-8-2020:  Ian Easton: “It is possible to envision this ending in an all-out invasion attempt and superpower war. The next five to 10 years are going to be dangerous ones.” “Taiwan ... could make Beijing pay a terrible price, at least several hundreds of thousands in casualties,”  “But that may be a price Xi Jinping is willing to pay
  ◆  National Interest, 11-20-2020: Would China really invade Taiwan? Maybe ! But the costs would be nuts
  ◆  Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past
  The Hill, 10-25-2020:  ...the looming possibility of a Taiwan Strait crisis. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will mark the 100th anniversary of its 1921 founding by striving to reunify with Taiwan.
  Washington Post, 10-26-2020: military exercises ..., aggressive moves... and jingoistic editorials in China's state-run press — have raised concerns in the West that Xi is readying China for a new war. The target in this case would be Taiwan
  Newsweek ,10-20-2020: GT:  whether to use the reunification-by-force option is no longer a question; the only question is when and how to use it
  ◆  Politico, 10-8-2020: What’s next for Taiwan: Conflict is a “real risk.” It could happen “even four or five years out,”
  ◆  Financial Times, 10-19-2020: There is no sign that an invasion force of this size (1m) is being assembled.
   BusinessInsider,10-4-2020:  Since armed conflict would be disastrous for all, it is essential that the US and the rest of the international community do everything they can to deter Beijing from taking unnecessary risks that could quickly spiral out of control
  ◆  Washington Examiner  10-17-2020: China’s saber-rattling in the Straits of Taiwan has stoked American worry that Beijing might seek to conquer the island by force.  It’s a near-term problem. it could get worse in the next couple of years
  New York Times, 7-2-2020:  The possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan remains remote, experts say, because the costs for Beijing would be extraordinary, including significant casualties and damage to its international standing. Yet the two sides are moving farther and farther apart, with little appetite for compromise.
  ◆  DW , 9-19-2020: the world has underestimated the severity of this flashpoint and that there's the potential for war over Taiwan — I think itself is an underestimation," said Ian Easton ... : "2020 to 2030 is the most dangerous time on earth, in my opinion, for a conflict with China over these disputed territories."
  Guardian (UK), 10-2-2020:  An invasion may not be imminent but experts say armed forces could have capacity to mount one by the end of the decade
  New Zealand Herald, 10-4-2020: China, Taiwan tensions could result in all-out war with the US
  National Interest, 9-26-2020: The probability of war ... is growing in the Taiwan Strait. "The deluge is closer than many think" 
  Express (UK), 10-3-2020:  WW3 warning: China to RAMP up Taiwan take over plans if huge US arms deal is agreed
  Forbes, 9-29-2020: Beijing’s recent actions may indicate that its willingness to take risks is increasing. Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated. it is important to bear in mind that arming Taiwan isn’t just about keeping the island free. If Beijing breaks out of the first island chain, everything changes in the Western Pacific
  ◆  Express UK, 9-14-2020: CHINA could take advantage of the current crises crippling the world's powers and increase its influence over the South China Sea in the next months risking war
  ◆  The Guardian, 9-22-2020: The Chinese foreign ministry’s comment,  there was no so-called median line in the Taiwan Strait “as Taiwan is an inseparable part of Chinese territory”  , is equivalent of destroying the status quo.”.  Global Times (China), 9-23-2020:  Taiwan island, US fabricate a ‘median line,’ sign of weakness: experts
  ◆  Express (UK), 9-22-2020: Taiwan tinderbox: China could launch missile over island if US dares to visit, says expert
  ◆  foreign affairs, 6-18-2020:  A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ...
  ◆  France 24, 9-16-2020:  Taiwanese FM on China: 'After Hong Kong, Taiwan might be next'
  ◆  CNN, 9-21-2020: Global Times of China: The "PLA drills this time are not a warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover,"
  Washington Post, 9-18-2020: China launches combat drills in Taiwan strait warns us not to play with fire, Taiwan warned that it could devolve into all-out war  
 
◆  Express (UK), 9-22-2020: World war 3 warning: CHINA has issued its latest threat to Taiwan, warning the state to "prepare for dire consequences" if it continues to strengthen ties with the US. 
  Guardian 9-17-2020:  Taipei fears “a real possibility” of war
  NY Times, 9-19-2020: The Chinese aircraft, including two H-6 strategic bombers, crossed the median line between the mainland and Taiwan in the strait from four different directions
  New York Times,  9-18-2020: U.S. Official Visits Taiwan, and China Warns of Consequences “Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States”
    BusinessInsider, Politico, Stars and Strips , 9-18-2020: "The signal from Beijing is very, very clear, but does that mean a prelude to war? No, far from it," said  former deputy defense minister in Taiwan.
   Forbes, 9-2-2020: Even though the likelihood of that ( invasion of Taiwan) happening remains low, the report (US Defense) shows that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is stacked firmly in China's favor 
  ◆  Express, 9-20-2020:  Tensions between Taiwan and China have risen to unforeseen levels this year.
  ◆  Stars and Strips , 9-18-2020: Despite of the frequency of the exercises, analysts said it does not mean imminent war. "No, far from it”
   VOA, 8-21-2020:  a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan... could happen as early as next year... the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity... Joseph Biden:  the U.S. has not been obligated to defend Taiwan ... There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan
  ◆  Bloomberg 7-30-2020:  Now fears are growing that Xi wants to cement his place alongside Mao and Deng by conquering Taiwan... Of the many US-China conflicts right now  —  none is more dangerous over the long haul than that involving Taiwan 
    Bloomberg, 8-20-2020:  The danger of a Chinese assault on Taiwan is growing. And the U.S., which has an ambiguous security commitment to Taipei, might well lose if it joined such a war on Taiwan’s behalf
  ◆  Guardian, 8-18-2020: The increasingly assertive behaviour from China suggests that Beijing’s options to annex Taiwan are shrinking
    Express (UK), 7-29-2020:  Harvard prof. Ezra Vogel :  Unfortunately, there is possibility of an armed confrontation. Nobody wants it, and everybody would lose if a war erupts.  
  ◆  Foreign Policy 8-4-2020:  CCP may be increasingly tempted to act against Taiwan. Helping to deter any such aggression doesn’t require nukes, but it should nonetheless be an urgent national security priority for Washington
  ◆  The Australian 8-4-2020:  Xi has made it clear that taking back Taiwan would be the crowning achievement in his vision to restore China’s place as a great power.   we tend to underestimate the importance the US puts on the defence of Taiwan.
  ◆  SCMP, 8-21-2020:  There is disturbing evidence that US President Donald Trump considers relations with Taiwan expendable in the context of a deal he could make with China 
   US Naval Institute, Proceedings, Aug. 2020: 2021 U.S. political transition would be an even more vulnerable time than usual for U.S. decision-making...  such an opportunity would only appear every few decades...for achievement of a long-held goal — to bring Taiwan back into China 
  ◆  Ian Easton on Taipei Times, 7-27-2020:  if Washington signals its resolve to defend Taiwan, the CCP could lash out. Knowing that risk, American leaders avoid it. This kind of short-sighted behavior is like a cruise line captain steering his ship north, into iceberg country, to avoid patches of rough water in the south...Wars have occurred only when ambitious dictators saw American indecision and miscalculated ...That’s why, in the 2020s, Xi Jinping (習近平) is probably going to invade Taiwan if nothing major changes.   https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/07/27/2003740606
  ◆  National Interest  7-18-2020:  This ( attack on Taiwan) will be much more difficult and costly than Hong Kong has been, but ... for these people, that cost is deemed as necessary and they will gladly pay it. Unless the United States binds itself to protect the independence of Taiwan on pain of war, Taiwan is next. 
  Daily Express, 8-15-2020: CHINA will look to punish Taiwan after the US Health Secretary, Alex Azar, visited this week and will eventually "invade" the state, "The Chinese will seek to punish Taiwan because they can’t punish Americans"   
  Daily Express, 8-13-2020:  World War 3: China 'ready' for conflict with US over Taiwan row ... Peking University Bo: there could be parties with the US military aiming to create a small-scale and “controllable” conflict with their Chinese counterparts
  CNN, 8-11-2020 : Beijing's warplanes have only crossed  the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") intentionally three times since 1999 (ps: Newsweek 8-12-2020: since 1949)-- once in March 2019, in February of this year, and again on Monday (Azar met with Taiwan President Tsai)
  ◆  Express (UK)  7-18-2020:  MILITARY tensions between China and US escalated further today, after a strong ally of President Xi warned that Beijing would invade US-backed Taiwan "early next year" 
   ◆  CNBC, 8-5-2020: Taiwan is in a ‘delicate’ situation with China as military drills intensify...  in the near-term, they do not have the capacity to really ‘retake’ Taiwan, ... over the years ... not a scintilla of evidence of flexibility on these kinds of core interest questions, and that’s what makes Taiwan so dangerous
  Japan Times, 8-10-2020: Trump’s attacks on China reach new peak of ‘pent-up’ grievancesthe Chinese side is unlikely to “overreact” to an action that has been taken less than three months before the U.S. presidential election
  Express UK, 8-10-2020: China and Taiwan spark huge war fears as missiles sent to coast and navy deployed,  these missiles "are able to destroy all military bases and government buildings on the island accurately"
   aljazeera  8-12-2020:  Experts in Taipei ... say an invasion is unlikely any time soon
  ◆  The Week (UK) , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020 : FT  isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?"
   New Zealand Herald, 8-9-2020: Tension reaching boiling point! Beijing mobilises invasion craft along coast,  satellite images reportedly show amphibious armoured vehicles and mobile missile launchers massing at military bases near the island nation...series of "combat readiness" exercises over the disputed South China Sea, with combat aircraft and naval vessels...
   Global Times, 8-14-2020: Chn. warns:  being a piece in the US chessboard could lead to checkmate
  ◆  Daily Mail, 7-22-2020: China has made several 'simulated' military attacks on Taiwan.
  ◆  FoxNews 7-8-2020: The passage of a national security law on Hong Kong has put Taiwan on edge, with pro-democracy activists fearing that Beijing will soon have the self-ruled island in its crosshairs  
  ◆   Bloomberg, 6-24-2020:  We may well see a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait before the decade's out.
  ◆   LOWY institute 7-9-2020:  Xi isn’t such a realist when it comes to Taiwan. Beijing views Taiwan in largely political terms – preoccupied with “the great trend of history” towards unification. 
  ◆  foreign affairs, 6-18-2020:  A strategic miscalculation might involve Chinese leaders choosing to blockade or attack Taiwan in the near term or midterm based on a set of strongly held beliefs about the United States as a declining power ...  
  ◆   USA Today 7-5-2020: Taiwan has never been more important to American interests.
◆◆◆ ◆   Reuters 5-22-2020 In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word  "peaceful" in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades,  an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral.
     Washington Post,  5-30-2020:  China vows to 'smash' any Taiwan independence move as Trump weighs sanctions.
  ◆    Foreign Policy 5-15-2020:  Beijing were to interpret ...  coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk.  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ )
   Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: Given how little Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong has cost it to date, we are concerned that Beijing will draw the wrong conclusions about the costs of future coercion against Taiwan 
  ◆  Washington Post 7-7-2020: HK national security law could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan ... China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy 
  ◆  Washington Post, 7-22-2020: in January 2019, Xi offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. But as a precondition for talks, China demanded that Tsai acknowledge the “one China” principle...  Inside China, the government has faced growing calls from hawkish military pundits and nationalist commentators to grasp the current strategic window to seize Taiwan 
  ◆   Japan's  Nikkei Asian Review  (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-7-2020 : Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory.
     Financial Times, 6-3-2020:  if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force.   Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent.
  ◆    Sunday Guardian 6-27-2020:  by 2020 “an ultimatum” must be given to Taiwan, peaceful or non-peaceful unification, but as Taiwan is expected to be “defiant…military action will be the only solution.” Without United States’ “intervention,” Taiwan can be “under control” in three months.
  ◆    Express (uk), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan.  Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest )
  ◆    National University of Singapore visiting scholar Drew Thompson on自由亞洲電台》, SETN, NextTV, 6-4-2020:  A war in Taiwan Strait will break out within 5 years ... China strikes Taiwan around 2024. (「台海5年內必戰」「侵台時間大概在2024年」)
    New York Times, 6-26-2020:  When China views it is being challenged in these other sovereignty disputes in this era, it will respond with a very tough line, ...  American warships through the South China Sea and stepped up support for Taiwan and its military ... the possibility of confrontation would increase as the U.S. presidential campaign heated up
  National Interest, 8-28-2020: Could China Successfully Blockade Taiwan?  China hopes direct action will yield clean and swift results, letting it present Asia, America, and the world a fait accompli — a done deal
    Daily Express, 8-17-2020:  WW3 fears escalate as China sends warship to South China Sea in warning to US and Taiwan
  ◆   The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 :  Beijing’s red line would be Taiwan declaring independence.
  ◆   EurAsia Times, 6-29-2020: the PLA troops have high war readiness in all fronts, but despite India-China border tensions and confrontations in the South China Sea, the risk of a full-scale war remains very low thanks to the PLA’s strategic deterrence.
  ◆   The bulwark 6-24-2020:  If Taiwanese independence were ever formally recognized by the United States, the CCP would almost certainly issue military threats and send naval vessels into the strait––whatever was necessary to bring the Taiwanese to heel.
  ◆    VICE, 7-24-2020:  there is a slim chance that China’s military will cross the Taiwan Strait anytime soon.   facing a Chinese party congress in 2022 that will determine the renewal of his chairmanship of the party—Taiwan could become a bargaining chip
  ◆    The diplomat  6-3-2020the 3 flashpoints (one is Taiwan) that could turn a us-china cold war hot
  ◆    NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
  ◆    Washington Monthly 3-11-2020 : internal pressures within Chinese politics may drive PRC authorities to act recklessly before the 2022 party conference, in which Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term as the country’s president.
  ◆    The Guardian UK, 5-20-2020: While analysts believe an invasion is not likely, Chinese state media have been quick to point out China’s military might.  “What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength,” said an editorial from the state-run Global Times, published immediately after Tsai’s speech.
  ◆    Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020:  calls for “reunification by force” were growing on the mainland ...
  ◆    People's Daily (China), 5-24-2020 :  Chinese PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
     Singapore's The Straits Times, 5-20-2020: China now has the strength to "overwhelm the Taiwan military and deter the US military".  warned by Global Times.
  ◆    USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049.
     Freebeacon 5-17-2018 :   2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan ...
  ◆   The China Times (中時) editorial, 5-23-2020:  Reunification by PLA force will not come on stage immediately, but some accidental events may happen in the future.   The China Times, editorial,  5-24-2020 has same view-point.
◆◆◆ ◆    The Liberty Times (自由時報), editorial,  5-25-2020 :  Communist China's new strategy will take hard line as principal axis against Taiwan...。Communist China's pressure will be stronger and stronger。
     L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references ): Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island.   Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent.
    Annual Report to US Congress ( Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC ), 8-17-2018:  Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force
  ◆   South China Morning Post, "紫荊雜誌" (Bauhinia Magazine), Hong Kong internet media, The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020:  Former PLA general 喬良 concluded that "Peaceful reunification" is hopeless, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force (「文統無望、只能武統」).   Taiwan issue is, in essence, China-USA issue, when the right time ( China-US arm wrestling game done ) comes, Chinese army will kill any one no matter monks or Buda, on their way.   Bloomberg 6-24-2020: 喬良 :an invasion of Taiwan could be catastrophic for China: Even if the US doesn't join the war...
     Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior...
  ◆  Washington Post 7-15-2020:  President Trump’s policy of international retreat and disregard for allies, alongside Xi’s growing assertiveness and expansionism, put Taipei at the intersection of the two ominous trends ...   Biden is committed to the status quo in Taiwan
  ◆   The Times,   6-4-2020:  "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order "。/  UK former FP Jeremy Hunt
  ◆   Economist 5-28-2020:  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong
     Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News, Liberty Times (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned that the lack of international sanctions may lead Beijing into believing that it could overtake Hong Kong and Taiwan without consequences. (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942917 )
  ◆   The Times, "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order ",  6-4-2020: 若遲早要發生軍事衝突,不如先下手為強。因為台灣在解放軍的飛彈射程內,且孤立主義的川普總統干預外國事務的可能性大減。/  英國前外相 Jeremy Hunt
  ◆   The Trumpet, 6-29-2020: In the months ahead, we should expect to see China continue using disruption, isolation and constraint in its Taiwan policy... today, with America weakening, and with China understanding that time is no longer on its side with Taiwan
  ◆   L.A. Times 6-9-2020:  HK Univ.: Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty.
  ◆   CATO institute, The American Conservative,  6-8-2020  : If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go.  
     John Bolton :  (Taiwan could be the next ) Taiwan was right near the top of the list, and would probably stay there as long as Trump remained President, not a happy prospect... (Jun. 2020)。 Washington Post: 10-18-2019 " Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria Could Taiwan be the next  ": Could an unscripted phone call between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping greenlight a Chinese invasion of Taiwan Given Trump's impulsive nature, that chilling scenario — and its baleful ramifications — can't be ruled out
  ◆   Global Times, 6-30-2020: US using Taiwan as ‘last card’ may only speed up reunification...PLA aircraft could fly over island if US invites Taiwan military for exercise
     Apple Daily (蘋果日報 ) 8-18-2018, headline news - US report warns China signals its readiness for unification by military force anytime.
     Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)
     United Daily (聯合報), 8-18-2018 :  China still seek unification by force -  Taiwan losing military edge.   China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan.   ps:  Forbes, 6-3-2020:   Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.
  ◆   The Interpreter , The LOWY Institute ( think tank in Australia ), 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security.  Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard
      CGTN 6-22-2020:  China's  the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council;  Chinese P.M. Lee ( 5-28-2020 ): "We are willing to strive for peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and greatest efforts.", "Chinese don't fight Chinese".
  ◆   SCMP, 7-22-2020: The PLA will definitely use force to take Taiwan back if the US provokes Beijing, because foreign force intervention is one of the three taboos listed by the Anti-Secession Law” in China ...  Xi may plan to achieve his goal in the next five to 10 years, but current tensions with the US may push him “to speed up the process of reunification” 
  ◆    Taiwan's intelligence chief told a law-maker that the probability of China attacking Taiwan at this moment is up to 60~70% ...  / SETN 3-26-2020
◆◆◆ ◆    If some day the democracy and freedom in Taiwan becomes a model for the world, it will be more difficult for PLA to attack Taiwan and kill Taiwanese.  

     

 

News Apple Daily 8-23-2020: China's warplane was suspected to cross the Taiwan Strait "median line" N.Y. Times, 8-15-2020: Beijing continues to take a tough stance on Taiwan, but is dialing down its belligerence to avoid provocative moves that might give President Trump more opportunities to attack Newsweek 8-13-2020: U.S. Military Defends Moves Near Taiwan, China Sends Forces to 'Safeguard' Territory   Asia Times, 8-12-2020: US doubles down on Taiwan ties to poke China  Guardian, 8-11-2020:  China sent fighter jets over a de facto border separating the two rivals in the Taiwan Strait shortly before Azar met with President Tsai Ing-wen  AFP, 8-10-2020: Military might is no guarantee of victory -- ... NATO forces in Afghanistan for two decades. Taiwan assesses ... safe in the knowledge that defending an island is far easier than taking it. Telegraph, 8-6-2020:  China accused of deploying more amphibious weapons to eastern coast as tensions with Taiwan rise CNN, 8-5-2020:  Taiwan has emerged as one of the focal points of the escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing   ◆  Sunday Guardian, 8-2-2020: The Quad must strengthen and support Taiwan  Daily Express (UK)  7-21-2020:  WAR will break out between China and the US in the South China Sea if Beijing violates the alliance agreement between America and Taiwan  ◆  TIME, 7-22-2020: President Xi Jinping pursues an increasingly assertive foreign policy, leading to speculation he may attempt a military confrontation in the region  Tokyo Review 7-25-2020:  Taiwan is where Japan would have to draw the line Washington Examiner, 7-22-2020: Beijing might try to seize one of the smaller outlying islands in the straits, as a way to force Taiwanese leaders to choose between risking a major conflict and conceding the territory to China’s control  ◆  Express (UK) 7-15-2020: China threat: Beijing plotting massive territorial gains ...  poses a major challenge for NATO, with Taiwan a looming flashpoint     New York Times, 6-21-2020:  It’s a quite deliberate Chinese strategy to try to maximize what they perceive as being a moment of distraction and the reduced capability of the United States to pressure neighbors  ◆  FoxNews, 6-23-2020: (US) Navy brings massive carrier power to Taiwan Strait, SCS     Express (UK) 6-23-2020:  FEARS of a World War 3 have been ignited once again ... China: US warships have repeatedly trespassed into Chinese territorial and crossed the Taiwan Straits...   ◆  Express, 7-2-2020:  China’s grand expansion plan laid bare as Taiwan told: ‘You’re next!’   ◆  Express (UK), 6-12-2020: World War 3  alert /  a Chinese military plane crossed an unofficial airspace boundary in Taiwan Strait after a missile-intercept drill ... Taiwan sovereignty regarded by int'l community as a major potential flashpoint    Express (UK) 6-13-2020: China WW3 threat: Beijing military insider exposes how war could soon break out with US  ◆  Express (UK) 6-16-2020 23:08 Tue US and China naval vessel nearly collide escalating ‘conflict risk in South China Sea’  ◆   Express (UK) , 6-17-2020:  World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies New York Times, Reuters, etc  6-23-2020: Taiwan raps China for military activity, says it should fight virus instead.  Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang told reporters that "Thanks for China's flattering and praise"  ("太抬舉我了") after China making the remarks "Su viciously attacked the mainland, attempted to stir up confrontation across the Strait, and deliberately confused 'Taiwan independence' and Taiwan" (CGTN 6-22-2020).  https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/taiwan-raps-china-for-military-activity-says-it-should-fight-virus-instead ◆   Reuters 6-18-2020: Chinese fighter jets buzz Taiwan again, stoking tensions    Voice of America, Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: A former U.S. defense official told VOA that last week's flight by a U.S. Navy aircraft showed the U.S. does not consider Taiwan to be part of Chinese territory.   Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-20-2020 : J10 approached Taiwan ... a sign of rising cross-strait tensions as the island deepens its relationship with the U.S. ...  on the alert for an unintended military clash  Reuters 6-19-2020:  China's air force approached Taiwan on Friday for the fourth time in four days,  as China steps up manoeuvres near the island.  ◆  Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: Former national security adviser wrote that Trump often downplayed US commitments to Taiwan  ◆  Daily Sabah (Turkey), 6-22-2020: Chinese air force including at least one bomber and J10 jet approach Taiwan (ps: 6 times within 7 days since 6-16)  ◆  CGTN 6-22-2020:  China's The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: it ( the use of force ) is targeted at the interference by external forces and a very small number of separatists and their secessionist activities ◆  Newsweek, 6-22-2020: China, Taiwan protest Jappan's renaming islands area in East China Sea Voice of America, 6-24-2020:  China Sends 8 Military Planes into Taiwan Airspace. They’re not Targeting just Taiwan ( ps: targeting the US )  South China Morning Post  6-24-2020: Risk of military conflict between US and China higher than ever...  ◆  Voice of America, 6-24-2020, 6-25-2020: China Sends 8 military Planes into Taiwan’s Airspace Seen as Warning to US  https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/chinese-planes-in-taiwan-s-airspace-seen-as-warning-to-us/5475955.html  ( Taiwan's Apple Daily, 6-25-2020:  Chinese military planes approached US p/3c anti-submersible aircraft  receiving fuel from KC-135 "Stratotanker" near Taiwan’s Airspace (quoted by United Press International, 6-25-2020 );  FTV 6-24-2020: another possibility is US planes crossed air defense zone ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce3UM2P6nPc   )
 

 

 

 

 

  US military   VS.   China military [ People's Liberation Army ]     

    

Military items USA China
Military personnel 1281900 2693000
combat tank 6287 13050
naval assets  415 714
aircraft 13398  3187
oil reserves 36,520,000,000 barrels 25,620,000,000
Daily Express , 9-7-2020; www.express.co.uk/news/world/1332183/world-war-3-china-news-us-navy-South-China-Sea-aircraft-carriers

 

●   New York Times, 6-26-2020:  China’s military is widely thought to remain far behind American armed forces, but it has caught up in some areas, including the expansion of its naval power and the deployment of anti-ship and antiaircraft missiles...China now posed “a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific ...China’s military remains untested. ...

    

  Military Times, 9-1-2020: What war with China could look like - https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/09/01/what-war-with-china-could-look-like/
 

●   Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020:   Over the last two decades, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has made advances that seriously eroded U.S. military power in the western Pacific, especially around Taiwan...the U.S. military now faces the prospect of losing a fight with China in defense of Taiwan. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong

     

●   National Interest, 6-27-2020:  Global Times report cites an abstract of China’s 2020 research report on the U.S. military presence in Asia, stating that the U.S. operates 60 percent of its Navy fleet in Asia, 55 percent of its Army and two-thirds of its Marine Corps. “With 85,000 forward-deployed soldiers and a large amount of high-tech and new weaponry, the U.S. military has maintained its absolute supremacy in the Asia-Pacific over the years,”  https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-military-aircraft-have-again-entered-taiwan%E2%80%99s-air-space-again-163674

  

●  Express UK, 9-13-2020: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1333776/south-china-sea-news-world-war-3-warning-US-Beijing-conflict-Spratly-Islands-latest-update 
South China Sea threat: Beijing warned to fear US influence as WW3 alarm bells ring
CHINA has been warned they should fear US influence in the South China Sea as the risk of "all-out conflict" has increased.

  

●  SCMP, 9-13-2020:   military expert at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, also agreed that the risks of war at the Taiwan Strait remained manageable, but this was only because Beijing had not achieved military superiority over the US. “If we fight a war with the US, we will make sure that we have absolute superiority and up to now we have not done so  “Both China and the US don’t want to fight a war – if a nuclear war is triggered, no one can guarantee a win.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3101363/us-presidential-election-china-trump-and-red-lines-taiwan

    

●   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies.  If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle.  American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers ( brief )

     

●   L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  The country’s focus on communications warfare, autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles could thwart a lumbering giant like the U.S. Navy.  War gamers at the Rand Corp. warned last year that the U.S. had “its ass handed to it” in battle simulations.   “The Chinese military has progressed very quickly —  and it might be a decade or two away, but it is certainly on the road to catching up with the U.S.”   (brief)

     

●   News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade.

 

●   Asia Times, 9-7-2020:    USAF eyes B-52s dropping sea mines to defend Taiwan - According to a US Air Force wing commander, that’s what a US intervention might involve, should China decide to invade Taiwan.

     

●  Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan.     Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).  

     

●   New York Times  5-24-2020:  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

 

●   Voice of America, 6-4-2020:  US navy will win a war with Chinese navy at this moment...    ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

     

●   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020 Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.
     
● 
 The Australian, 5-18-2020, The Times (UK): In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon.

 

  CNN, 9-3-2020:  a forcible takeover of Taiwan could be a bad bet for Xi either way -- US help or not 

     

●   CBS news (USA), 11-14-2018:  U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
       the National Defense Strategy Commission:  "It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat."   ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)

     

●   France24, 8-10-2020: Critics have accused US President Donald Trump of ramping up criticism of China as a way to divert from growing public anger over his administration’s coronavirus response, especially as he fights for re-election ... Trump administration was still paying heed to China’s red line—that no US official handling national security visit Taiwan.

 

RealClearDefense  9-15-20  Regrettably, the United States isn’t doing enough to deter Xi from attacking Taiwan. A first step in correcting this is updating or replacing the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)...  the U.S. should help Taiwan help itself by providing tools tailored to defending the island  https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/09/15/defending_taiwan_and_deterring_china_577452.html 

 

 

 Alex Azar’s trip , the highest-ranking visit by a U.S. official to Taiwan in decades

 MirageNews (Australia), 8-11-2020: (where is that red line for the U.S. in terms of us going in and defending Taiwan?) Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises.
The Week  , Yahoo News , 8-9-2020 FT : she isn't sure how serious President Trump is about supporting Taiwan and predicted he could back down if things with China really get heated, leaving the island vulnerable. "If I were Beijing, I would be asking myself: 'If the U.S. gives us a justification to attack Taiwan, what are the odds that he will change is pattern of cutting and running?"
 Washington Post,  8-6-2020  Alex Azar’s trip to Taiwan is about refusing to appease China.  a fraught strategy and the stakes are high
  Financial Times, 8-9-2020 (UK) US health secretary’s Taiwan trip is sign of strategic shift ,  new risks it creates for Taipei as it becomes a crucial battleground in the escalating clash between the world’s two biggest economies
 Forbes, 8-9-2020

U.S. Health Chief Arrives In Taiwan At Nadir In Washington-Beijing Ties

AFP , 8-8-2020 (France) a high-level visit to the island shows it is still treading carefully on an especially explosive issue... they (US) are trying to come as close as possible to China's red line but don't want to cross it."
CGTN, 8-9-2020 (China) A dangerous move that benefits no one  !  another step to provoke China while the Sino-U.S. relations deteriorate...  the move reveals the Trump administration's multiple calculations... making the Taiwan Straits a new battlefield as U.S.-China tensions soar...  Making China the scapegoat to divert attention from the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic has been one of the crucial strategies to save Trump. In this case, there seems nothing better than playing the Taiwan card.   
◆  New York Times,  8-9-2020 a test of China’s tolerance of the United States’ support for Taiwan at the most volatile time in the relationship between Beijing and Washington in decades.
ABC News, 8-8-2020 The trip is a geopolitical chess move in the Trump administration's contentious relationship with China
Bloomberg, 8-9-2020 It is about sending a message to Beijing amid rapidly deteriorating bilateral relations and the routine military nuisance that Beijing has been causing Taiwan throughout 2020.”   a trip that stands to further worsen spiraling relations between the U.S. and China.
Financial Times, 8-9-2020 (UK) Visit highlights island’s growing importance in clash between Washington and Beijing
New York Post,  8-9-2020, 8-7-2020 ... a trip that’s spurred outrage from China.
By dispatching Azar, President Trump is delivering a clear message of resistance to China’s increasingly egregious behavior.
Bloomberg 8-6-2020  "an outcome that Beijing has threatened could lead to war" , So far China’s response to the trip has been fairly subdued, suggesting that leaders in Beijing may be keeping their options open ahead of the election
SCMP (HK), 8-10-2020 “The US has consistently treated Taiwan as a chess piece to contain China, and the DPP is going along with it,” They [the DPP] are acting as a toy in the US’ anti-China strategy, and must pay an increasingly high price for it.
CNN, 8-11-2020 Azar's presence in Taipei is "a serious breach" of US commitments on Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry said
TVBS,  8-10-2020 Azar in his speech addressed president Tsai as "president Xi".  KMT advises the govt. to protest on this "mistake".

     

 

      Chinese authorities slammed the US for sending a military transport aircraft over the island of Taiwan and urged the US side to abide by the three joint communiqués between China and the US.  China reacted angrily about Taiwan (DPP) colluded with foreign forces to violate China's sovereignty and security, actively sabotaged peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and brought calamity to safety and the well-being of people on the island.

pic.: At 6-9-2020, a US Navy (C-40A) is flying over West coast line of Taiwan before heading to Dongsha Island in South China Sea (red-line on pic., green land on left side is China mainland).

although many media reported the flight was re-routed for weather and military exercise nearby, but:
 

New Zealand Herald, 6-15-2020: the US Navy flight was an overt signal of support for Taiwan is likely, especially given China's recent major military exercises close to its borders.

The Drive,  6-9-2020: ( The US action ) "was almost sure to draw some form of rebuke from authorities in Beijing"

NHK Japan, 6-12-2020: Some analysts in Taiwan say the administration of US President Donald Trump conducted the military flight to demonstrate its policy of working with Taiwan.

News Australia, 6-14-2020: Chn. : can also be seen as a de facto joint military drill ...
 

PS: US News & World Report  6-15-2020:  provocative move is used to deter China ... it could cause an escalation with China

FocusTaiwan 6-9-2020: the C-40A's flight course as "rare" because the U.S. military usually operates only in international waters or airspace around Taiwan. "the Clipper's route took it through actual Taiwanese airspace, where U.S. military aircraft generally don't venture"

China Times, 6-10-2020: The purpose of the US is riling China,  testing the waters and arm Wrestling.   The tacit understanding (Chinese military never respond US particular mission in public ocean) between Chn. and US was  broken since then.
Express (UK), 6-12-2020: Chn. lashes out at 'provocation' after US plane enters Taiwan airspace which contravens international law.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/502229-china-condemns-us-military-fo-provocative-flight-over-taiwan

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1191355.shtml

https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4623423

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200612_01/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33964/taiwanese-fighters-drive-off-chinese-jets-after-navy-transport-plane-flies-over-the-island

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202006090013

   

    

 

   Will US send troops to defend Taiwan ?

    

If China invades Taiwan ...
 responses from
US president Trump,  state secretary Pompeo

FoxNews,  Newsweek, 9-22-2020 In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Trump too talked tough on the flashpoint, but declined to specify how he planned to respond to the recent Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait

"They know they've got some big problems, OK?" the president said. "If they play around, if they want to play the game, they've got some big problems."

https://www.newsweek.com/china-what-happens-war-breaks-out-taiwan-1533385

FoxNews,  8-23-2020, Q:

1) it seems to be "getting more important because of technology and economic aspects that a company in Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductors."
2) “If China, and it looks like it's getting more belligerent, tries to either invade Taiwan or effectively take control of it and its important industries, would you let them get away with it?

Trump :

1)  They're coming to this country.  

2) " I think it’s an inappropriate place to talk about it, but China knows what I’m gonna do. China knows,”  “I think this is an inappropriate way to talk about it. You know. I don’t want to say I am gonna do this or I am not gonna do this"  "This is just an inappropriate place to talk about it"

It is a very big subject. It is a very powerful subject, but I think China understands what I am gonna be doing

 

Australia MirageNews, 8-11-2020 Pompeo: this is obviously a very sensitive issue. The President has talked about this a great deal. We have a series of commitments and a series of understandings, commitments that we’ve made to China as well. We thoroughly intend to uphold our obligations and commitments with respect to the historical understandings between the United States and China on Taiwan. The Secretary’s visit is – Secretary Azar’s visit is wholly consistent with those commitments, and we’ve told both the Chinese and the Taiwanese that we are going to continue to abide by that set of understandings. It’s enshrined in U.S. law as well, so it’s an obligation that we do so. I am confident that we’ll continue to keep up those promises.

https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-sean-spicer-of-newsmax-tv-s-spicer-co/   Australia's authoritative media platform based on firsthand sources

FoxNews,  6-1-2020

 

   QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? 

  

      SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
 
washington examiner, 10-7-2020
in response to a direct question by NIKKEI Asia Review (Japan) about whether the U.S. military would intervene
SECRETARY POMPEO: “if China unilaterally attacks Taiwan,” Pompeo avoided a direct response at first but warmed to a deterrent theme.  

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/pompeo-us-will-be-a-good-partner-for-security-if-china-attacks-taiwan

 

Washington Examiner, 10-17-2020:   Pompeo:  U.S. would be a “good partner for security” to Taiwan in the event of an attack   https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-tells-taiwan-to-fortify-itself-to-repel-invasion-from-china

 

 

 

●  VOA, 8-21-2020:  The region’s military balance moves in China's favor, strategic ambiguity is increasingly unsustainable... Although the Trump administration has been taking a very strong stand on China in recent months, there have been no moves from the administration to suggest it is preparing to do away with strategic ambiguity.   Joseph Biden: "There is a huge difference between reserving the right to use force and obligating ourselves, a priori, to come to the defense of Taiwan" ...it would depend on the circumstances.

●   Forbes, 9-22-2020:  The United States Should Put ‘Tripwire’ Ground Forces In Taiwan: Expert   

       American naval forces were No longer enough to credibly deter the PLA from attempting a cross-strait operation,”   The PLA Rocket Force’s 1,300 medium-range missiles and the PLA Navy’s modern submarines have turn the Taiwan Strait into a no-go zone for large U.S. Navy formations.  The Air Force’s mega-base in Okinawa—the service’s main hub for operations around Taiwan—is a prime target for Chinese rockets.   the United States should get serious about defending Taiwan by putting boots on the ground, Mills wrote. “Without U.S. forces in Taiwan, it is increasingly likely that China will attempt to integrate Taiwan into its republic by force.   www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/22/the-united-states-should-put-ground-forces-in-taiwan-expert/#6e6bcae24622

 

●   Taiwan News, 8-11-2020: Former president of Taiwan says US will not engage in cross-strait conflict

 

  Express (UK) 6-30-2020: China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning

 

●   Forbes, 9-22-2020: The U.S. Army Should Plan To Send Four Divisions To Taiwan: Expert  /   David Axe
       To prevent PLA ground forces from remaining on Taiwan in a ‘frozen conflict’,  the U.S. Army should be prepared to deploy tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of heavy vehicles to the island country and “drive the enemy into the sea,”,   this requires the Navy and Air Force to fight through China’s ... naval and air forces to gain secure access to Taiwan’s ports and airfields that would allow the deployment of the Army,”.  That’s easier said than done, of course.

       The arriving American troops would have one job—help Taiwanese troops contain, isolate then reduce Chinese beachheads. U.S. divisions “will provide the core for a decisive counterattack.”

         https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/09/22/the-us-army-should-plan-to-send-four-divisions-to-taiwan-expert/#2cfa91831635

 

 The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.

●   Express (UK) 6-30-2020:China attack on Taiwan will NOT be salvaged by US in major new warning 


  Taiwan News, 8-11-2020: Former president of Taiwan says US will not engage in cross-strait conflict

Ma Ying-jeou warns China would wage quick war on Taiwan, says no hope of US military assistance

●   Russia's  Sputnik 6-30-2020:   Wishful Thinking’: US May Be Unwilling to Fight China Over Taiwan, Strategists Fear , ‘The Situation is a lot Grimmer’   there’s reason to worry that Trump will lose interest in Taiwan. He’d trade away Taiwan in a heartbeat if he thought it would get him his trade deal with China.     sputniknews.com/asia/202006301079760590-wishful-thinking-us-may-be-unwilling-to-fight-china-over-taiwan-strategists-fear/

●   South China Morning Post, 6-30-2020: Taiwan warned against ‘wishful thinking’ that US will come to rescue if China attacks 

  New York Times, 7-2-2020: Doubts have emerged about President Trump’s personal commitment to Taiwan, especially as he tries to hold together a trade deal with China.  ...   KMT  law maker : “If Taiwan fights against the Chinese Communist Party, the United States won’t come to rescue us,” ...  As always, Taiwan’s defense turns on the question of American support. The United States is committed to providing help for Taiwan to defend itself。

●  Chicago Global Affairs Council

        "Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?

 

  2015 2018 2019
China invades Taiwan 28% 35 38
N. Korea invade S. Korea  47% 64 58
China initiates a military conflict w Japan over disputed islands
 
33% 41 43
Russia invades a NATO ally (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc) 45% 54 54
 https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/report_ccs19_rejecting-retreat_20190909.pdf

CSIS , 2020 https://chinasurvey.csis.org/analysis/
https://chinasurvey.csis.org/analysis/partners-believe-us-prepared-to-take-significant-risk-defend-against-china/
There is strong consensus among thought leaders in Asia and Europe that the United States is prepared to take risk to defend Japan (mean score of 6.89); Taiwan (6.42); South Korea (6.39); and Australia (6.16) against threats from China, but there is less consensus on defending an unnamed ally or partner in the South China Sea (5.43), though Northeast Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are generally more confident (6.14).
This potentially sends a powerful message to China that U.S. allies and partners are confident that the United States will take risk to defend them despite Beijing’s efforts to chip away at that confidence.
Despite China’s growing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, confidence in the U.S. willingness to take risk to defend Taiwan is high, second only to Japan and higher than confidence for defending U.S. treaty allies South Korea and Australia.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan.     Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).    

    

 National Interest 7-6-2020:  China and Taiwan Could Be Headed Towards a Showdown...  Will it be easy to defend Taiwan? No.  ... attempt great feats “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” 

 

●  Economist 5-28-2020:  a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked......  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly.  https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify

    

  chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018, Missouri State University  professor D. Hickey's comment :  the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.  

    

●  The Liberty Times, (自由時報) ,1-24-2020:  Agreements or treaties like <Taiwan Relations Act> (『台灣關係法』) have not clearly stated the U.S. has obligation or duty to send troops to defend Taiwan.

●  Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020  https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/  :  Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force  by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.

The Diplomat 6-8-2020:  Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.

●  Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, ref. to Forbes :   the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war. 

●  Maybe Taiwan won't fear military threat from China if the US definitely would come to the rescue once the reunification war breaks out. ( Financial Times  5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic...)

●  Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020:  After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.

 ABC Radio National, Australia,  27 February 2020 :   In the US, both sides of politics have reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the Taiwanese military is well armed and prepared for any possible Chinese incursion.   How the wider international community would respond to cross-strait conflict remains unclear.

●  United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.  

    

●  National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan...

    

●  China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: China and the US flexed their muscles frequently near Taiwan territory, in this April, US fighters approached Taiwan Strait surrounding airspace 13 times, particularly B-1B reached there 3 times.   Next TV news 5-8-2020: Chinese air force and fleets conducted a series of provocative, aggressive operations from Jan. 23 till April 22,  once traversed Taiwanese 'territory' (Taiwan Strait median line).

    

●   The China Times,  opinion, 4-21-2018: survey/poll shows only 18% American are on the side of defending Taiwan by US military  (僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台).

    

●   New York Times,  5-24-2020 :  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.  Taiwan News 6-1-2020: Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison explained to VOA that the U.S. would then be forced to join the battle once Beijing's troops cross the Taiwan Strait, leading to catastrophic global warfare.

    

●   New York Post,  5-26-2020:   (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.

●   The Hill 6-16-2020: That question was put directly by Chinese military officials to Assistant Defense Secretary Joseph Nye in 1995, between episodes of Chinese missile firings toward Taiwan: What would the U.S. do if China attacked Taiwan? Nye’s response: “We don’t know and you don’t know; it would depend on the circumstances.”  https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan

    

●   Bloomberg 6-24-2020: Even absent a clear commitment to defend Taiwan, the United States can telegraph that commitment by making the choices required to ensure it can defend Taiwan successfully.

●  National Interest Organization,  3-5-2019   https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

        In the 2017 TNSS (The Taiwan National Security Survey) survey, most (43.4 percent) thought America will not support Taiwan, while 40.5 percent believed America will commit troops to a conflict. In 2019, however, the number believing Washington will provide troops jumped to 48.5 percent, while the number who think it will not fell to 35.3 percent. If an attack is unprovoked, the percentage of Taiwanese who believe the United States will intervene soars to 60 percent.

    

    

    

 

 arms deal

 

●  L.A. Times 5-20-2020 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-20/taiwan-president-calls-for-stability-in-china-relations), The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references )

         

          The U.S. is the island’s main source of military support against China’s military threats.  Since 2008, the United States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter aircraft, tanks, and missiles.
        The Diplomat said that while the U.S. remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be important partners as well.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has exported arms from countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States. 
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiwan-looking-to-diversify-its-defense-partnerships/
        However, China called the Taiwan issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and military contacts between Taiwan and any country
.   Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship.

    

●  Republic World, 5-25-2020:  China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.

    

●  Washington Post,  5-30-2020   The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.

    

●  Global Times (China), 9-21-2020:  The Taiwan Relations Act that was enacted in 1979 also stipulates that the US shall provide Taiwan with arms that are only defensive in character. 
However, the air-to-ground missile included in the proposed packages of arms sales to Taiwan falls into the category of offensive weapons.

 

 

  US weapons,  good enough for Taiwan !?            'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

   

    

     Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020:Taiwan should devote its limited defense budget to acquiring huge arsenals of mobile missile launchers, armed drones, and mines ;  Forbes, 9-29-2020: Washington may need to further strengthen Taiwan’s indigenous capacity to deter by considering the sale of stealthy F-35 fighters, advanced missile defenses, and other weapons not currently contemplated.  Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems、long-range surveillance armed drones...

 

    However, here are some problems:

 

◆  too big !?       

      Many US weapons Taiwan bought in recent years are “big ticket”, "symbolic", such as M1 tank heavy vehiclesF16V jet ; SCMP (Hong Kong ,10-15-2020) and Japan Times (7-9-2019): those weapons Taiwan requested "will not alter the basic military balance in the region”  ; A more important issue is : Economist,10-9-2020: China could wipe out Taiwan’s navy and air force ...   Many insiders are accordingly pessimistic about its ability to hold out.  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries still consist predominantly of small numbers of advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage;  Bloomberg 10-27-2020 has same view. 
        Therefore,
Taiwan should buy "smaller-size",
mobile, lethal, hard-to-target and numerous (for strategic dispersion) practical weapons with maneuverability capabilities (missiles, HIMARS, etc) better for its asymmetrical capabilities.  But Taiwan went the other route.  DW (Germany), 6-6-2019 reported: Taiwan confirms request for US tanks, Taiwan may be seeking to buy 66 more F-16 fighter jets 。 Taiwan expert in Diplomat,11-3-2020 thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/ says the high visibility of conventional systems positively impacts Taiwanese morale and improves public confidence in the military, and those weapons are effective during peacetime.  The problem is:  does Taiwan have enough budget to buy those ?

 

 

◆  too late !?

         Newly bought US weapons take at least one year maybe 4~5 years ? to arrive in Taiwan.  Independent (UK, 10-28-2020), SCMP( Hong Kong, 10-27-2020) : Taiwan says newly purchased US arms will help it destroy half of any invading Chinese force by 2025.  However, Defense News (10-27-2020): “I think if there’s anything to be concerned about its how fast we can get these systems to the Taiwan. If this is over the next 5-7 years, ... we shouldn’t be coming out of our seats celebrating. And that’s a political question ...".
        
Voice of America,10-15-2020: Experts Say Taiwan Needs More Homegrown Military Efforts to Counter China.  Reuters (Oct. 2020) says Taiwan is developing and testing new missiles.

         China's mouth-piece Global Times, 10-27-2020:  the mainland might decide to solve the problem before Taiwan get fully armed to become a real "porcupine" ( Independent UK, 10-8-2020: US: Taiwan needed to "turn themselves into a porcupine" militarily,  "Lions generally don't like to eat porcupines.")
               

 

◆  too old !?
       
Forbes, 10-26-2020: Taipei’s growing arsenal of long-range missiles complicates Beijing’s invasion-planning.
       
However, Defense News, 10-26-2020: The Harpoon missile (just purchased) is an older technology and travels at sub-sonic speeds, which means it may be more vulnerable to advanced air defenses. ...  Business Insider, 10-28-2020:  Harpoon anti-ship missiles could frustrate an amphibious assault a Chinese military.. expert in Hong Kong says the missiles "will boost Taiwan's attack ability a little bit," but they "cannot survive a real war and can barely make any change to the balance of military power between Beijing and Taipei." Global Times, 10-27-2020: The threat that these Harpoon missiles poses to the PLA is very limited, as they are high subsonic missiles designed in the 1980s, and the current self-defense and anti-missile facilities installed by the PLA on its vessels and land-based bases can shoot them down easily,"   The US has a more advanced anti-ship missile with stealth capability, but it won't sell it to Taiwan, so the latest announced sale is another expensive deal ... 
If Biden is elected, things may even worsen, CNN 10-29-2020 says that
Biden could offer minor concessions to Beijing, like providing Taiwan with less potent weapons.

 

 

◆  Can Taiwan defeat China by US weapons ?

         Taiwan's defense may be not too bad, but there’s little doubt that China would win a war with Taiwan, even if such a conflict would be costly on all sides, according to many analysts in media such as Chicago Tribune, Yahoo News,10-12-2020, Bloomberg, 10-8-2020 China even could destroy Taiwan easily by missiles or fatal weapons if it really wanted.  Forbes, 8-30-2020: Taiwan simply does not have enough firepower to defeat a Chinese invasion without the help of the U.S. military.

         Many pro-independence" Taiwanese actually is short of "will-power",  if they all have "soul of the military" as Japanese army had in WWII ,  the Tokubetsu Kogekitai ( とくべつこうげきたい ,「神風敢死隊」, suicide planes) may destroy Chinese only two aircraft-carriers to end the war.  Now most Taiwanese want peace (NewsWeek, 10-28-2020)  ―  both sides of Taiwan Strait are Chinese, Chinese blood in the veins, NBC 10-24-2020: Economically, Taiwan is dependent on Beijing. But for its security and for international political support, it relies on Washington.  Most Taiwanese hope to find some way a peaceful resolution for the issue.  Washington Post, 1-2-2017 noted " 83 percent Taiwanese chose bread (China's economy) over romance ("independence") .    10-29-2020

 

      

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa  10-11
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/  
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html

www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204800.shtml

https://news.yahoo.com/taiwan-says-newly-purchased-us-111753710.html 

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/26/us-state-department-to-allow-sale-of-hundreds-of-anti-ship-missiles-to-taiwan-amid-diplomatic-row/

https://www.businessinsider.com/sale-of-missiles-to-taiwan-could-frustrate-a-chinese-invasion-2020-10

https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/experts-say-taiwan-needs-more-homegrown-military-efforts-counter-china

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/10/26/to-thwart-invasion-taiwan-points-powerful-new-missiles-at-chinese-bases/#439bad0147f6

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-20201008-grd2fews3ffg7gdc4zyhagafjq-story.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/tiny-taiwan-caught-middle-u-s-china-battle-supremacy-n1244521

https://www.newsweek.com/china-war-taiwan-peace-poll-1542735

 

 

 

 

 

●   United Daily (聯合報)  editorial/ 2020-06-06
       The biggest problem is shortage of budget 。
       In addition to Navy, Army's tank and artillery (戰車,火砲),Air force's Mirage jet and C-130,all need to be replaced or enhancing performance, which is far more than the budget can afford。

       three presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) kept squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense.

       So called asymmetrical capabilities are just skin-deep or phony phrase ! (表面功夫)。

    

● The LOWY Institute , 6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.  
  Taiwan is often criticised for purchasing inappropriate capabilities, but these sales serve a deterrent function 
 continues to extract political commitments from the US.

 

●   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

    

        PS: What's the commitment ?

 

◆ 
U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982)  "817公報"
the United States of America recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. 
The Chinese Government reiterates that the question of Taiwan is China’s internal affair. The Message to Compatriots in Taiwan issued by China on January 1, 1979 promulgated a fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Nine-Point Proposal put forward by China on September 30, 1981 represented a further major effort under this fundamental policy to strive for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question.
 the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution. 
 
 

◆  Arms sales to Taiwan   NSC Declassification Review (EO 13526)   "白宮備忘錄" 1982

...
The US willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences.  It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of US foreign policy.
It is essential that the quantity and quality of the arms provided Taiwan be conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC.   (brief) 

 

 

 
 

    

 

●  New York times,  11-4-2017: “(Taiwan) needs to resist a Chinese military attack for two weeks and wait for help from the United States or the international community,”  echoing a strategy that has been at the core of Taiwan’s defense doctrine for decades......Taiwan’s armed forces, by contrast (Chn), have fallen way behind, struggling to recruit enough soldiers and sailors — and to equip those they have.   A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits the United States to defend the island’s sovereignty, providing “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary” ... US latest arms sales " short of the major systems that could give Taiwan a real edge."  (Singapore's The Straits Times :

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-once-mighty-military-now-overshadowed-by-chinas  Taiwan's once-mighty military now overshadowed by China's   11-6-2017;  http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/xi-tells-trump-that-taiwan-is-the-most-important-issue-in-sino-us-ties  Taiwan is the most important issue in Sino-US ties, Xi tells Trump  11-9-2017 )

       

 

  Washington Post,    1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
       Can China really take over Taiwan?

           Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.”  ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China.  A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

    

   Taiwanese youngsters are willing to go to war with China ?? 

 

 

 
 

 

 

 Diplomat, 10-3-2020:  the United States should convince Taiwan to clarify its own commitment to military readiness, noting that mandatory military service in Taiwan
 is seen by many young conscripts as a “waste of time.”... Taiwan lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years.  Such a policy, however,
could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

thediplomat.com/2020/10/taiwan-debates-military-preparedness-measures-as-chinese-threats-escalate/ 

 

L.A. Times,10-6-2020:  To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service ... Better pay, housing and college scholarships offered by the armed services
haven’t been enough to lure Taiwan’s youth ... Taiwan's active-duty military has shrunk to 165,000 from 275,000 three years ago.  
  Financial Times,10-6-2020 and  Guardian 6-27-2020 both estimated Beijing would need up to one million soldiers to invade Taiwan.

But till now 10-8-2020, Taiwan eventually made a small step
― 
260 thousands Taiwanese will be called up for active duty 14 days per year starting from 2022. 
Taiwan should shift  from
volunteer military service to mandatory military service with same training days as Singapore's or Korea's in order to deal with huge PLA troops. 
Besides, the good female youngsters should be considered to join the army.  

 

 

 
 

 

 

 

  China-US-Focus  5-4-2018 
( https://www.chinausfocus.com/society-culture/taiwan-public-opinion-and-national-security-implications-for-washington-and-taipei)

 

 

 

★  Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD)  found that almost 68% of Taiwan’s people were willing to go to war with China
 if it seeks to force reunification. The poll’s findings made headlines in Taiwan’s media outlets.
However, some other scientific polls available are more reliable.

 

 

 

China-US-Focus,  5-4-2018  :  TNSS (The Taiwan National Security Survey  ), a scientific poll,  is conducted by the prestigious Election Study Center of
Taiwan's National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University:
 
  wait and see
 
leave the country join the army to fight against the invasion
 
 support the government’s decision,
 
resist
 
hide away
 
choose to surrender
 
commit suicide respondents
answer
  36.9% 16% 4.9% 6.2% 4.1% 2.2% 1.8% 0.1% %
     

15.2%

     

PS:  a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender”

 

 

 

★  National Interest Organization,  3-5-2019

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-latest-opinion-polls-say-about-taiwan-46187

 

Both polls and earlier surveys found that almost 45 percent Taiwanese plan to “leave the country,” “unhappily accept the situation,” “hide”
or “choose to surrender” if reunification war between China and Taiwan break out.  Besides, each poll shows that 23 percent
“don’t know” how they might respond, a majority believes most Taiwanese will resist an invasion by PLA. 
But the polls also showed 70 % think Taiwanese military cannot win a war 
  in any conflict, “mainland forces will prevail.”

 

 

 

★  5-8-2019:  New Party(新黨)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox4EVm45Kvc 
Poll shows about 20% Taiwanese would like to join the war, but the percentage drops to less than 10% after telling them war may kill them and families

 

 

VOA news, 9-21-2020:  The increasing number of air force incursions from China is starting to fray nerves among ordinary Taiwanese,  A Yahoo poll, as of early September,
had found that 64% of Taiwanese worry about a conflict,  but a lot of people’s fears are muted by perceptions that China is just sending a political signal,
a big proportion of Taiwanese who think  United States would defend Taiwan
 ...

 

  Global Times, 9-28-2020: survey released by Taiwan magazine Global Views Monthly on Friday showed that if a war broke out, 54.2 percent of the respondents wished for peaceful
talks with the mainland, 22.3 percent expected help from the US, and16.5 percent said the island should fight. "The result is in line with the current situation in Taiwan," said Zhang Wensheng,
a deputy dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University, China. 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202381.shtml

 

 

 

pic.: Zola Zu's article about the world war "I want you !" was printed in the China Times, leading news at that time

 

          Taiwanese democracy ...  click !  top rankings !!

 

 

 

 

 

    Taiwan short of soldiers and will to fight a strong Chinese military             'Five minutes to midnight' !!?

聯合報, 10-22-2020

 

嚴德發:若總統下動員令 第一時間作戰主力45萬人
 
國軍後備改革,有立委關切台灣後備戰力動員與召集情況。國防部長嚴德發今天表示,若總統動員令一下,約26萬名後備軍人就要報到,加上18.5萬名的現役軍職人員,約45萬人將是第一時間防衛作戰主力
 

 

https://udn.com/news
/story/10930/4954777

募兵

 徵兵


 

Taiwan's military reform (10-22-2020) : active force 185 thousands  +  reservists 260 thousands (call-up for active-duty training 14 days per year )      enough ?

 

      Foreign Policy, 10-28-2020: Taiwan needs to do more in boosting Taiwan’s defense capabilities, especially some serious deficiencies - increasing the existing four-month conscription and improving reservist systems are another.  This also means preparing the public for conflict...   foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/28/taiwan-threat-invasion-china/
     Newsweek, 11-5-2020, News Australia, 11-7-2020: expert says Taiwan will need to bring back the draft in order to put up a fight. https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/war-will-come-warns-beijing-after-taiwan-stocks-up-on-usmade-missiles/news-story/41a1d2b2e04e2f5e015c308b5dedd9b9

https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-would-last-only-two-weeks-war-china-says-ex-navy-commander-1544770

      But Taiwan goes the other way and declares it will cut off the number of 2021's new-entry volunteer service soldiers from 22,000 to 12,000, according to LTN 11-7-2020.  Is it a signal from Taiwan to China while pro-Taiwan Trump losing US election ?  Furthermore, Taiwan only plans to mobilize about 1/10 reservists, Newsweek (10-30-2020) doubts how many reservists may come once the war breakout, because in peace time, only 70% citizens came for 7 days-per-year call-up training.  In contrast, China's 北戴河 meeting set up a goal to mobilize all the people for the war.  


 

Western experts'
advices:

number of reservists

western analysts

 advices

a million

 Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020 Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists
a million  Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020 Foreign Policy, 10-19-2020: Taiwan needs ... developing an army that can surge tens of thousands of troops to any beach in an hour backed by a million-strong reserve force trained to fight guerrilla-style in Taiwan’s cities and jungles
 more than a million USArmy University Press
Military Review,
Sept-Oct, 2020
Taiwan has a significant advantage in sheer numbers if it can create a more active, capable reserve element. The U.S. Army can serve as a useful partner in the effort to strengthen Taiwan’s reserve capacity
2.3 million  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020   2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...

a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training. 

Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA

2~3.8 million New York times,  5-18-2017 The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   (ps: Baidu , 10-15-2017: 3 million reservists   Wikipedia, May 2020:  reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  )
     

 

Financial Times (UK, 10-1-2020) reported the number of Chinese military personnel is about 2m,  Taiwanese military is only 163,000.  Guardian UK (6-27-2020) Financial Times UK (10-6-202010-19-2020) reported that if Beijing wanted to invade Taiwan it has been estimated that it would need up to one million soldiers or about 50% of total PLA strength ( Global Times 6-8-2020 : Chinese reservists can be up to 616 millions

Therefore, Taiwanese military should needs more than a million
reservists with strict trainings.  Taiwan's latest military reform plan ( mobilizing only about 1/10 reservists) starting from 2022 obviously is not good and early enough !  How does Taiwan know China will not strike before 2022 ?  Washington Examiner, 11-18-2020:  China will race to expand 'empire' and attack Taiwan during window of opportunity... maybe between now and the communist party congress in 2022.”.    If Taiwan knows for sure China will not make any move on Taiwan, why Taiwan's FM calls on Australia to help prevent China War ? because Taiwan was now "very concerned" ... "the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait was much higher than before" according to Newsweek 12-1-2020 and ABC Australia 12-1-2020.   Taiwan was criticized by NY Times in 2017 for relying on US military to fight China.

 

◆  Combat skills and will-power  

Voice of America (Chinese version), 8-26-2020: After PLA's landing, Taiwanese military should move to the mountain to fight a Chinese style "Vietnam war’.  But some Taiwan's or Macau's best-known politicians and experts said the war is about to end once PLA landing Taiwan.  Economist,10-9-2020: Taiwan’s preparedness and its will to fight both look shaky...  Washington Post,10-26-2020 : expert of National Defense University opposes US's shift from a policy of “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity” in that Taiwan might use the American pledge as an excuse to “neglect its own defense”. This is exactly Taiwan's image, being dependent and always want to rely on American help , hawkish to its own weak nationals, but being chicken toward foreign powers .

 

◆  SOL:  Taiwan needs to attract more volunteer soldiers or/and shift to mandatory military service with same training period as Singapore's or Korea's as soon as possible    ――   Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) : It could take a decade to retool the Taiwanese and U.S. militaries to mount an effective defense of the island.... With China’s rapid military buildup, that may be time that Taiwan does not have.

 

◆  Core problem
       Taiwan's politicians like to win an election rather than win a war !!

      
Diplomat, 10-3-2020:  Taiwan should lengthen its period of mandatory service to two years.  Such a policy, however, could be deeply unpopular among the young voters courted by the ruling Party (DPP)  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... NCCU professor says that without America's words, Taiwan still slept there doing nothing about reservist reform (寰宇全視界, 2020) Foreign Policy (10-19-2020) :  Given these electoral realities, Taiwan’s leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  however, the United States may not be up to the task. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/19/china-keeps-inching-closer-to-taiwan/

      

 

 

 

 

FOCUS  Taiwan's  reservists

 

 


★  
  Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020

 

  Politicians in our country are afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe our people are not willing to sacrifice... Full text:  www.ft.com/content/92029f49-3e9a-47b7-b967-2af823f185cd

 

 

Taipei’s best bet at deterring an invasion is to bolster its reserves — a force that is large on paper but seen as unfit for the task because of a lack of training. 

 

  2.3m reservists the country has on paper, 780,000 were demobilised ... — the military’s metric for whether men are worth mobilising. Of those, only 84,000 are demobilised volunteer force soldiers, the best-trained and most motivated group...

 

  Many reservists have been called up for just a few days every two years, a level of training Mr Easton’s study declared “insufficient to meet the challenges posed by the increasing threat from the PLA

 

  

★     Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020   Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?   China Tests the Limits of Impunity

        ◆    The Pentagon should further assist Taiwan’s military in reforming its reserve and mobilization systems, which are critical to the institution’s long-term strength 
               
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2020-07-08/taiwan-next-hong-kong

 

★    Hong Kong Free Press, 7-15-2020:  Taiwan’s military is also not in the most optimal state. For instance, Taiwanese males serve only four months of conscripted military service, in comparison to over 20 months for Singaporean men and at least 18 months for South Korean men.  The short length of time means it is difficult to learn much beyond basic training.

https://hongkongfp.com/2020/07/15/security-law-taiwan-must-be-wary-it-could-be-the-next-target/
 

★   "寰宇全視界", 9-3-2020: Guest professor advocates restoring conscription, however, this will offend youngsters, and enlisting system is a rarely-seen consensus on Taiwan.  Another professor notes the US suggests the number of Taiwanese active force needs at least 220 thousands, but at this moment only 180 thousands.

 

★   United Daily (Taiwan) ,10-03-2020 /"I want independence, but not join-the-army"   https://udn.com/news/story/7338/4906441?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
       
KMT (Nationalist party) advocates
shifting from volunteer military service (hard to get young people) to mandatory military service, the ruling party DPP opposes it.  The Ironic thing is:  DPP wants independence which most likely leads to a war with China, but they don't want youngsters to join the army, which party likes to defend Taiwan better ?
        A KMT city-councilor (
台北市女議員 徐巧芯) advocates mandatory military service for both men and women, a former female lawmaker shouted at once "why don't  you join the army"

 

 Daily Express (UK), 10-11-2020: PLA troops which did make it ashore would face roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers and one million reservists ( express.co.uk/news/world/1345937/world-war-3-china-news-taiwan-news-xi-jinping-median-line-usa) .  Actually, probably much fewer Taiwanese soldiers will be there.  Experts on Taiwan TV and Hong Kong Apple Daily said the reunification war is going to an end once PLA successfully landing, the Taiwanese chief said the total number of troops to fight PLA would be about 500,000, and according a survey, the biggest consensus between youngsters aged 20 ~29 and 18 ~ 19  ―  not willing to be drafted or called up by Taiwanese military.  This is the biggest crisis of Taiwan's national security (United Daily, Taiwan,10-06-2020).  

 

★  Find out the number of Taiwan's armed forces personnel !
Taiwan military chief,
10-10-2020
Taiwan's TV 寰宇全視界,
10-10-2020
 Financial Times,
10-1-2020
 Voice of America ,
10-15-2020
Daily Express, 10-11-2020
currently 210,000, But in war time 500,000 in total currently 186,000 personnel 163,000 current level, an estimated 175,000 roughly 175,000 full-time soldiers

 

 

 

 

 

 

   HOT !       Taiwan travel        food        Taiwan soft power       democracy      Intro to Taiwan        Taiwan personality      bully        persecution
 

 

 


 

 
pic.: No.1 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 7-26-2020     

 

 

 

     

  
pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on US Bing,  5-26-2020, 5-20-2020; 

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-20-2020

 

 

ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

 

pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on Lycos,  6-1-2020 

 

ps : National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

 

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

      

pic. :  Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Yahoo search engine (US), 5-26-2020; No.5 at 7-11-2020

 

 

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany,  11-14-2020, 5-20-2020

 

 


 

ps:  Taiwan internet army , top rankings on Bing, Yahoo, etc

 

 

 

 

  How to avoid a war in Taiwan Strait ?

         Economist 5-29-2020:  a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked......  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly.  (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong) Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior... NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.  

 

        News Australia, 6-14-2020: While China's military forces – mainly its navy – has been growing dramatically in recent years, it remains incapable of going head-to-head with US forces for at least another decade.   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020:   Beijing were to interpret ...  coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk. ( https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ )  The Hill  (USA), 6-16-2020:  China's Anti-Secession Law (ASL) that purportedly provided a “legal” basis for China to attack Taiwan, not only if it declared formal independence but also if it simply took too long to accept Chinese Communist rule.   ( https://thehill.com/opinion/international/502865-pass-the-taiwan-defense-act-tell-china-that-america-will-defend-taiwan )

   

 

 

    other information

  

  ●  The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence  “Open Hearing on China’s Worldwide Military Expansion.”, 5-17-2018

        (1) China's “infatuation with Taiwan” ?

        a visceral nationalistic design ...“if Taiwan survives as a democracy [it] undermines the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”

      (2) USA curb China ?

        the US could soon be completely driven out of the Asia-Pacific region if Beijing is allowed to continue on its current course unopposed.

      (3) Congressional hearing recommended

       deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Asia, showing strong support for Taiwan, and exposing human rights abuses in China as immediate steps that could curb Beijing

  ●  Taiwan Public Opinion and National Security,  Dennis V. Hickey, Missouri State University   /   chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018
        The U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

        According to a more reliable poll available, The Taiwan National Security Survey (TNSS), which is conducted by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University in 2018 and 2019 ,  36.9% plan to “wait and see, 16% percent plan to leave the country, 2.2 % will hide away and 1.8% will “choose to surrender. On the other hand, 6.2% will support the government’s decision, 4.9% will join the army to fight against the invasion, and 4.1% will resist the invasion. The good news is that only 0.1% will commit suicide. But the bad news is that a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender.”

 

 

 

 

pic.: survey 2018

pic.: survey in 2019

 

 

 

   ●   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020 Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.

 

 

  
●   imminent danger of Chinese invasion
 

USA Today 7-5-2020: The Chinese military recently held drills simulating the capture of Taiwanese territory. Communist officials and military officers have also threatened war with Taiwan in recent weeks.
 

pic: Apple Daily, 8-16-2020: BeiDaiHe meeting in China - one of 8 targets is to liberalize Taiwan

Reuters 5-22-2020:  In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word “peaceful” in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades,  an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral.    Economist, 5-29-2020: China has stepped up war games around Taiwan and its nationalists have been braying online for an invasion. 

 

Reuters 2-26-2020:  Beijing ... attack the island as a way of relieving “internal pressure” ... Chinese public opinion believes people in Taiwan lack sympathy about China’s virus outbreak...   Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned.  Financial Times, 6-3-2020:  if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force.   Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent.  Express (UK) 6-17-2020: World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies /  Many viewed this ( China dispatch aircraft carriers for months-long war games in the South China Sea) as a prelude for broader, more aggressive actions against Taiwan. "If Taiwan secessionists insist on secession, military exercises can turn into action any time.”  Foreign Affairs, 7-8-2020: A Chinese assault on the island is neither imminent nor inevitable.

 

 

 

 

  S.O.S.  from Taiwan

 

 

(headline of Taiwan News)

 

   FoxNews, 5-26-2020: Taiwan Foreign minister warns Taiwan is next on Chinese agenda ( military actions ) and asks for international support. 
      TTV
(Taiwan), 5-27-2020: Taiwan president: keep our eyes peeled for China's military actions.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcHp-1j6Lg

 

 

  FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

 

 

 

 

Annual Report to US Congress (2018), 8-17-2018
                Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018
                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

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