T
aiwanese military
 vs.  Chinese military   ★    China invades Taiwan   vs. Taiwan independence ?
                            
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    Does Taiwan worry about an attack from China? 
           Taiwanese president Tsai I. W. told  CTN at 5-2-2020 "Taiwan as an underdog facing down the growing might of Beijing" , "What we are expecting is, after withstanding the first wave of Chinese attacks ourselves, the rest of the world would stand up to exert strong pressure on China" ....
 But, chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018 reported Missouri State University  professor D. Hickey's comment : the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.  Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020:  use of force by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.  The New York Times at 11-4-2017 pointed out that Taiwan’s historical advantages (geography and the US support)  in deterring a potential attack has been “eroded or negated” in that Chinese military is "more potent".   Economist, 5-29-2020: China has stepped up war games around Taiwan and its nationalists have been braying online for an invasion.

           Express (UK) 6-10-2020: South China Sea crisis Taiwan invasion fears soar.  Express.co.uk, 5-30-2020:  Fears of total war as China repeats threat to INVADE neighbouring Taiwan.   Financial Times  5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic, with increasingly frequent incursions into airspace traditionally respected as a safety buffer zone.   Taipei was at additional risk from the escalating dispute between the US and China. ( https://www.ft.com/content/3a3a4235-3c4c-4a55-80e6-2a584960583d  )  The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020: ...  the first time China's new aircraft carriers deploy together for the first time and the move has sparked fears in Taiwan of a possible invasion of its Pratas islands - which could then be used as a staging point for an attack on the mainland.   Express (UK), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan.  Voice of America (interview at May 30, 2020), Taiwan News (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned.

SOS  from Taiwan

 

(headline of Taiwan News)

 

   Fox News, 5-26-2020: Taiwan Foreign minister warns Taiwan is next on Chinese agenda ( military actions ) and asks for international support. 
TTV
(Taiwan), 5-27-2020: Taiwan president: keep our eyes peeled for China's military actions.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcHp-1j6Lg

 

 

  FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

 

News:  National Post, Reuters, etc 6-23-2020: Taiwan raps China for military activity, says it should fight virus instead.  Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang told reporters that "Thanks for China's flattering and praise"  ("太抬舉我了") after China making the remarks "Su viciously attacked the mainland, attempted to stir up confrontation across the Strait, and deliberately confused 'Taiwan independence' and Taiwan" (CGTN 6-22-2020).  https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/taiwan-raps-china-for-military-activity-says-it-should-fight-virus-instead  ◆  Voice of America, 6-24-2020, 6-25-2020: China Sends 8 military Planes in Taiwan’s Airspace Seen as Warning to US  https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/chinese-planes-in-taiwan-s-airspace-seen-as-warning-to-us/5475955.html  ( Taiwan's Apple Daily, 6-25-2020: 8 Chinese military planes approached US KC-135 "Stratotanker" doing aerial refueling for p/3c anti-submersible aircraft  in Taiwan’s Airspace  )    ◆  FoxNews, 6-23-2020: (US) Navy brings massive carrier power to Taiwan Strait, SCS     Express (UK) 6-23-2020:  FEARS of a World War 3 have been ignited once again ... China: US warships have repeatedly trespassed into Chinese territorial and crossed the Taiwan Straits...
 

 

 ◆  Express (UK), 6-12-2020: World War 3  alert /  a Chinese military plane crossed an unofficial airspace boundary in Taiwan Strait after a missile-intercept drill ...
Taiwan sovereignty regarded by int'l community as a major potential flashpoint
   Express (UK) 6-13-2020: China WW3 threat: Beijing military insider exposes how war could soon break out with US  ◆  Express (UK) 6-16-2020 23:08 Tue US and China naval vessel nearly collide escalating ‘conflict risk in South China Sea’  ◆   Express (UK) , 6-17-2020:  World War 3: China preparing for 'military struggle' as Taiwan row intensifies ◆   Reuters 6-18-2020: Chinese fighter jets buzz Taiwan again, stoking tensions    Voice of America, Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: A former U.S. defense official told VOA that last week's flight by a U.S. Navy aircraft showed the U.S. does not consider Taiwan to be part of Chinese territory.   Japan's Nikkei Asian Review (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 6-20-2020 : J10 approached Taiwan ... a sign of rising cross-strait tensions as the island deepens its relationship with the U.S. ...  on the alert for an unintended military clash  Reuters 6-19-2020:  China's air force approached Taiwan on Friday for the fourth time in four days,  as China steps up manoeuvres near the island.  ◆  Taiwan News, 6-18-2020: Former national security adviser wrote that Trump often downplayed US commitments to Taiwan  ◆  Daily Sabah (Turkey), 6-22-2020: Chinese air force including at least one bomber and J10 jet approach Taiwan (ps: 6 times within 7 days since 6-16)  ◆  CGTN 6-22-2020:  China's The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: it ( the use of force ) is targeted at the interference by external forces and a very small number of separatists and their secessionist activities ◆  Newsweek, 6-22-2020: China, Taiwan protest Jappan's renaming islands area in East China Sea Voice of America, 6-24-2020:  China Sends 8 Military Planes into Taiwan Airspace. They’re not Targeting just Taiwan ( ps: targeting the US )
 

 

Express (UK), 6-12-2020: World War 3 alert - a Chinese military plane crossed boundary after Taiwan's intercept-missile drill ,
China also reacted angrily after a US military plane flew over Taiwan 

 
 
  Chinese authorities slammed the US for sending a military transport aircraft over the island of Taiwan...  violated the three joint communiqués between China and the US,  and it's “an illegal act and a seriously provocative incident”

 

Later on,  a group of Su-30 fighter jets of the Chinese PLA briefly entered the southwestern "airspace" of Taiwan island. This move is widely interpreted as a counter by the Chinese mainland to the provocative US action.

 

pic.: At 6-9-2020, a US Navy CNV7642(C-40A 169036) is flying over West coast line of Taiwan before heading to Dongsha Island in South China Sea (red-line on pic., green land on left side is China mainland).

 

although many media reported the flight was re-routed for weather and military exercise, but:
The Drive,  6-9-2020: "a flight that was almost sure to draw some form of rebuke from authorities in Beijing"
NHK Japan, 6-12-2020: Some analysts in Taiwan say the administration of US President Donald Trump conducted the military flight to demonstrate its policy of working with Taiwan.
New Zealand Herald, 6-15-2020: the US Navy flight was an overt signal of support for Taiwan is likely, especially given China's recent major military exercises close to its borders.
News Australia, 6-14-2020: Chn. : can also be seen as a de facto joint military drill ...
FocusTaiwan 6-9-2020: the C-40A's flight course as "rare" because the U.S. military usually operates only in international waters or airspace around Taiwan. "the Clipper's route took it through actual Taiwanese airspace, where U.S. military aircraft generally don't venture"
China Times, 6-10-2020: The purpose of the US is riling China,  testing the waters and arm Wrestling.   The tacit understanding (Chinese military never respond US particular mission in public ocean) between Chn and US was  broken since then.

 

   Will China strike on Taiwan ? 

     

      

◆◆◆ ◆    Reuters 5-22-2020 In the annual meeting of China’s parliament, there was no mention of the word  "peaceful" in front of “reunification”, departing from the standard expression Chinese leaders have used for at least four decades,  an apparent policy shift that comes as ties with Taipei continue on a downward spiral.
  ◆   People's Daily (China), 5-24-2020 :  Chinese PLA will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
     Washington Post,  5-30-2020:  China vows to 'smash' any Taiwan independence move as Trump weighs sanctions.
  ◆    Foreign Policy 5-15-2020:  Beijing were to interpret ...  coronavirus as a uniquely advantageous moment, a Chinese military strike on Taiwan at this moment is unlikely ... ... but a low level of risk is not the same as zero risk.  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/15/chinas-provocations-around-taiwan-arent-a-crisis/ )
  ◆   Japan's Nikkei Asian Review  6-7-2020  (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun): Despite the escalating rhetoric from Beijing, the probability of a military attack on Taiwan remains relatively low for the short to medium term. China has few good military options that will lead to a quick victory.
     Financial Times, 6-3-2020:  if China had to acknowledge that their line on Taiwan is fiction, that Taiwan will not be persuaded to unification, that would leave them only the option of force.   Such shrill rhetoric would make many believe that an assault on Taiwan could be imminent.
  ◆    Express (uk), 6-3-2020: South China Sea warning: All-out war fears erupt as Beijing rejects Taiwan peace plan.  Mr. Hunt, the former Foreign Secretary (UK), warned China abandoned "peaceful" plans to reunify with Taiwan and may be on the verge of deploying military action against the neighbouring country as tensions erupt in the hotly contested South China Sea. ( https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1290665/South-china-sea-latest-news-taiwan-war-beijing-jeremy-hunt-uk-hong-kong-protest )
  ◆   The Interpreter , 6-16-2020 :  Beijing’s red line would be Taiwan declaring independence.
  ◆    Taiwan's intelligence chief told a law-maker in early Spring that there're about 60~70% China will attack Taiwan...
  ◆    National University of Singapore visiting scholar Drew Thompson on自由亞洲電台》, SETN, NextTV, 6-4-2020:  A war in Taiwan Strait will break out within 5 years ... China strikes Taiwan around 2024. (「台海5年內必戰」「侵台時間大概在2024年」)
  ◆    The diplomat  6-3-2020the 3 flashpoints (one is Taiwan) that could turn a us-china cold war hot
  ◆    NewsWeek 6-5-2020: If Washington does not act comprehensively and urgently, it could be Hong Kong today and Taiwan next.
  ◆    Washington Monthly 3-11-2020 : internal pressures within Chinese politics may drive PRC authorities to act recklessly before the 2022 party conference, in which Xi Jinping is seeking an unprecedented third term as the country’s president.
  ◆    The Guardian UK, 5-20-2020: While analysts believe an invasion is not likely, Chinese state media have been quick to point out China’s military might.  “What ultimately determines the direction of the situation across the Taiwan Strait is a contest of strength,” said an editorial from the state-run Global Times, published immediately after Tsai’s speech.
  ◆    Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020:  calls for “reunification by force” were growing on the mainland ...
     Singapore's The Straits Times, 5-20-2020: China now has the strength to "overwhelm the Taiwan military and deter the US military".  warned by Global Times.
  ◆   Reuters 2-26-2020: Taiwan should continue to show goodwill to China during coronavirus outbreak and not give Beijing an excuse to attack the island as a way of relieving “internal pressure” ... Chinese public opinion believes people in Taiwan lack sympathy about China’s virus outbreak...
  ◆    USA Today 5-18-2018: Xi JinPing has signaled that China will seek to reclaim its historical properties by 2049.
     Freebeacon 5-17-2018 :   2020—the deadline that [Chinese supreme leader] Xi Jinping has given the [People's Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan ...
  ◆   The China Times (中時) editorial, 5-23-2020:  Reunification by PLA force will not come on stage immediately, but some accidental events may happen in the future.   The China Times, editorial,  5-24-2020 has same view-point.
◆◆◆ ◆    The Liberty Times (自由時報), editorial,  5-25-2020 :  Communist China's new strategy will take hard line as principal axis against Taiwan...。Communist China's pressure will be stronger and stronger。
     L.A. Times 5-20-2020, The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references ): Much of China’s military modernization is targeted at Taiwan Strait contingencies and plans to retake the island.   Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party advocates Taiwan’s formal independence, something Beijing says it will use force to prevent.
    Annual Report to US Congress ( Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC ), 8-17-2018:  Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force
  ◆   South China Morning Post, "紫荊雜誌" (Bauhinia Magazine), Hong Kong internet media, The Liberty Times, United Daily (Taiwan) , opinion, 5-8-2020:  Former PLA general 喬良 concluded that "Peaceful reunification" is hopeless, the only solution to reunite Taiwan is by force (「文統無望、只能武統」).   Taiwan issue is, in essence, China-USA issue, when the right time ( China-US arm wrestling game done ) comes, Chinese army will kill any one no matter monks or Buda, on their way.  
     Foreign Policy 5-15-2020: China could very well miscalculate or misinterpret the intentions of other players. Therefore, the United States must ensure that it continues to signal its resolve to deter aggressive behavior...
  ◆   Economist 5-28-2020:  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/05/28/china-has-launched-rule-by-fear-in-hong-kong
     Voice of America (5-30-2020), Taiwan News, Liberty Times (6-1-2020), "Taiwan in imminent danger of Chinese invasion", Harvard professor Graham Allison warned that the lack of international sanctions may lead Beijing into believing that it could overtake Hong Kong and Taiwan without consequences. (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3942917 )
  ◆   The Times,   6-4-2020:  "China’s hostility to Taiwan threatens the global order "。/  UK former FP Jeremy Hunt
  ◆   L.A. Times 6-9-2020:  HK Univ.: Yet popular opinion in China doesn’t appear to favor war at a time of economic uncertainty.
  ◆   CATO institute, The American Conservative,  6-8-2020  : If Xi’s regime wants to test the resolve of Taipei and Washington without incurring an extremely dangerous level of risk, a move against Kinmen and Matsu—or even more tempting, against Taiping and the other remote islets—would be the way to go.  
     Apple Daily (蘋果日報 ) 8-18-2018, headline news - US report warns China signals its readiness for unification by military force anytime.
     Taipei Times, 8-18-2018 : The Pentagon said China could pursue a measured approach signaling its readiness for armed conflict or conduct a methodical campaign to force capitulation (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2018/08/18/2003698716)
     United Daily (聯合報), 8-18-2018 :  China still seek unification by force -  Taiwan losing military edge.   China’s official defense budget has grown to about 15 times that of Taiwan.   ps:  Forbes, 6-3-2020:   Beijing now spends 25 times more on its armed forces than Taiwan does on its own military.
◆◆◆ ◆    If some day the democracy and freedom in Taiwan becomes a model for the world, it will be more difficult for PLA to attack Taiwan and kill Taiwanese.  

     

  Taiwanese military  VS.  communist China's military [ People's Liberation Army ]     

Taiwanese military   vs.   Chinese military

  Taiwan's military

assessments

 personnel

 ( soldiers, officials )

  Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell.  US Defense Department officials have privately expressed dismal assessments regarding Taiwan's current force level and reserve system.
◆ 
armor, mechanized infantry, and artillery units are always in desperate shortage of enlisted soldiers
  few front-line units have more than 80 percent of their positions filled  /  Foreign Policy, 2-15-2020; https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/china-threat-invasion-conscription-taiwans-military-is-a-hollow-shell/
Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only... /  New York times,  5-18-2017
  The ROC (Taiwan) Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.   /  Wikipedia, May 2020
strategy ◆  To against the threats of cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, and ‘unrestricted’ warfare from China , we ( Taiwan ) work to bolster our defense capabilities, future combat capacity development will also emphasize mobility, countermeasures, and non-traditional, asymmetrical capabilities (unconventional arms)” /  Taiwan president inauguration speech, Voice of American, 5-20-2020
◆  so called asymmetrical capabilities in Taiwan is only skin-deep    /   United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020

firepower

◆  Today China has more and better conventional forces than Taiwan.   /  Forbes, 6-3-2020

◆  China has uclear bomb ,Neutron bomb, hydrogen bomb, Taiwan has none of those. / Next TV news, 5-8-2020
◆   Three Taiwanese presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文)  squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense, lead to shortage of arms-deal budget.  /   United Daily , editorial,  6-6-2020
◆ 
Taiwanese military strength is ranked No. 26 ,  China PLA No. 3  /  Global FirePower, 2020
◆  A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... /  New York times,  11-4-2017

military logistics system

◆  Taiwan  lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments /   United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020

 morale

 Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... /  New York times,  5-18-2017
Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic ... / Financial Times  5-19-2020

 

 

  China's Military Power Report /  annual Report to US Congress (2019), 5-2-2019

             Military and Security Developments involving P.R.C. 2019

 

"China could use missile attacks and precision air raids against air defence systems, including air bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan's defences, neutralise Taiwan's leadership, or break the Taiwan people's resolve," ...

aljazeera news said at May 3, 2019  that much of China's military doctrine is focused on self-ruled Taiwan,

China might take if Beijing decides to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign "designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue.

 

The Liberty Times suggests Taiwan taking "asymmetric warfare".   Apple Daily (headline news) 5-4-2019 said that the possibility of the blockade or a limited war by PLA is smaller than that of air raid, rockets, or amphibious landing.  (see pic. right)

 

usni.org said at 2019/05/03 that Taiwan is the primary focus of amphibious assault and sea-based missile launch capability improvements made in 2018 by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA Navy and PLA Marine Corps.

 

 

 Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China.  Therefore, Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force as annual report above.  (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school,  National ChungCheng University)

       

●  United Daily (聯合報 社評), opinion,   5- 7- 2020  "國軍「官不聊生」實況"   https://udn.com/news/story/11091/4547068?from=udn-catelistnews_ch2
         Taiwan military lacks enough supplement of all items of military equipments , which results in all kinds of corrupt practices, such as soldiers/officers under the table imported stuffs from outsiders, kept equipments on the shelves to avoid damages, or made fake check list ....... for years, Taiwan military authority invested logistics sources far from needed. (國軍長年對後勤資源的投注,距離理想狀況差太遠。)   Apple Daily, editorial, 5-10-2020: Taiwan's military logistics system is a hot potato, no one wants to touch it. (國軍後勤體制是燙手的痼疾)

     

●   L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  The only thing assured about a war between China and Taiwan, experts say, is heavy casualties. ... a disaster.

     

   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario... but “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history...". ... (brief)

●  New York times,  5-18-2017: Taiwan's Failure to Face the Threat From China  (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion/taiwans-failure-to-face-the-threat-from-china.html)

       We (Taiwanese) seem to expect American sons and daughters to risk their lives to protect our home, while relieving our own of that very duty.

       Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with scandals ranging from abuse to graft to espionage......

●  New York times,  5-18-2017: For years, the political establishment in Taipei has delegated responsibility for responding to Beijing to the United States.  Taiwan's leaders have gutted the military and continued to base defense planning on the assumption that the United States would always come to the rescue.  Policies put forward by the Kuomintang and the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party have left the military understaffed and in a state of low morale... Taiwan's active force down to under 200,000 (the exact number is classified). The nearly two million reservists exist in name only...   Taiwan’s defense policies are largely a result of deep distrust between the military and politicians. The military has struggled with wide-range scandals/

 /  https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/18/opinion    ( ps: China's Baidu, 10-15-2017: Taiwanese reservists 3 million in total;  Wikipedia, May 2020: The ROC Armed Forces number approximately 300,000, and reserves reportedly total 3,870,000.  

 United States think tank the RAND Corporation, Taiwan News, 2-2-2018, Apple Daily 2-3-2018, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3353460
          Likelihood of successful Chinese attack against Taiwan rising: RAND Corp.    China's jets and missiles can damage U.S. and Taiwan air bases

        According to RAND, which specializes in military affairs, the balance in the Taiwan Strait has been moving in China’s favor as the communist country was continuing to make progress in its preparations and training ...

    Formosa TV, 2-25-2019:  Taipei mayor Ko: some American said Taiwan can only resist PLA for 2 days.  
    
  ◆ CTV evening news, 12-18-2016: Taiwan Defense Secretary: we can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week.  ps: The time for Taiwan to resist Chinese army estimated by Taiwanese military chiefs over the years is shorter and shorter.
      
◆  Global Times, Mar 2018:  Former Chinese military top official said PLA can beat Taiwan within 100 hours.  

 

   Global FirePower, 2020 :  Taiwan military strength is ranked No. 26 ( 1. US 2.  Russia 3.  Chn 4.  India  5.  Japan  6.  S Korea  16.  Indonesia  17. Saudi Arabia  19.  Australia  22. Vietnam  23. Thai  25. N korea    26.  TW  35.  Myanmar  44. Malaysia  45. UAE  46.  Banladesh  48.  Philippines  51. Singapore ).  In 2014, Taiwan was ranked 17th, in 2012, Taiwan was ranked No.18.   However, Forbes 5-21-2013 : Taiwan president beset by low approval rate because of weakness against foreign countries, even including Philippines (No. 48 in 2020), a backward country dared to hurt Taiwan;  Not to mention military strong ones, China, Japan, etc. 

  Foreign Policy, 5-11-2020: Taiwan has been upgrading and reforming its defense over the past decade, adopting an asymmetric strategy designed to capitalize on its strengths to counter PLA power projection capabilities.

 


    

  

 

  nuclear bomb neutron bomb hydrogen bomb
countries US, Russia, China, Pakistan, Israel, India, N. Korea, UK, France US, Russia, China, India, France US, Russia, China,  France, UK, N. Korea

pic. left:  At 5-7-2020, Taiwan Intelligence chief replied a law-maker with phrase :
 Taiwan should pursue good fortune and avoid disaster once military conflict between China and the US occurring

 in the western Pacific near Taiwan, we won't get in the trouble water ...
 

 Washington Post,  5-21-20: This month, commentators in China have hotly debated the need to expand China's nuclear
and ballistic missile arsenal after the State Department published a paper arguing for the fitting of low-yield
nuclear warheads onto submarine-launched missiles.

 

the essence of China unification issue is " China confronting the US" 

pic    right: both China and the US own nuclear bomb ,Neutron bomb, hydrogen bomb 

( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI 

 


 

 pic: For Strategic deterrence,Taiwan needs 500 pieces of  雲峰飛彈 missiles

雲峰飛彈 - 维基百科,自由的百科全书

source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_Dwlaf4wAI "年代向前看"Next TV news, 5-8-2020

 

●  Forbes, 6-3-2020: Taiwan already has air-, ship- and submarine-launched Harpoons.

Taipei is investing in defensive systems such as the mobile Harpoon. “The sorts of survivable, low-profile and networked defenses that can survive an
initial Chinese attack and be resilient and lethal for weeks or months,” according to Scott Harold, an analyst at RAND, a California think tank.

 

● Next TV news, 5-27-2020: 雲峰 medium-range ballistic missile with range 2000km, including Beijing, its mass production can be started from 2021
 

South China Morning Post  (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3085662/taiwan-fire-missile-programme-tsai-puts-focus-asymmetric)
Taiwanese missiles are increasing in range and are capable of striking cities in inner China, including strategic targets

 

  Voice of America, 5-20-2020: The island long dependent on heavy industry has come out already
with surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles and 66 aircraft in the past. 


 

    EBC News 5-31-2020, www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpHkE9WOVqs
pic. : Chinese Air Force (J-10, J-11, J-20, SU-35, H bombers) vs. Taiwan (F-16V, Mirage 2000, F-5E, IDF);   
 Chinese Navy ( 2 Aircraft-carriers, Destroyer) vs. Taiwan Navy (Destroyer)

 

 

   United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.  

●  Apple Daily (蘋論), editorial, 4-22-2020 :The 1st step for Taiwanese military reform is HONESTY ( 國軍改革 從誠實開始)
          Taiwan navy under fire for letting sailors infected with coronavirus into community (South China Morning Post, 4-21-2020), Taiwan will quarantine 700 sailors after three came down with the coronavirus following a mission to a nearby Pacific island. (New York Post, 4-18-20)
          About Taiwan Navy's 'Friendly Fleet''s story, no matter declassified or easy-to-master info. , Taiwan' s military issued different versions within one day, even played a slapstick show - slapping face each other.  The public strongly questioned their honesty.   The military failed to handle small risk like this, how can we trust their ability to face a war.  (brief)    UDN (聯合報社論)/十人一口罩  , editorial 4- 21- 2020: In average, Taiwanese government allocated one face mask to ten soldiers before the infection event, how to assure army's combat capability and basic quality ??
 ●  Apple Daily (
蘋論), editorial, 5-1-2020 :Since taking enlisting-system, Taiwan military always failed to recruit enough number of soldiers, the quality of candidates to join the military- school examinations is not as good as expected...

China's strategy of attacking Taiwan 

  type English Chinese
1 cyber warfare PLA launchs cyber attacks, to penetrate CPU of Air Force Air Defense and Missile Command (Taipei), Republic of China Armed Forces Joint Operations Command Center (Taipei), etc. 網路攻擊, 入侵中央控制電腦, 劍指防空指揮系統, 三軍衡山所等
2 ‘unrestricted’ fire-power warfare PLA Rocket Forcetroops bombing like heavy rains the entire Taiwan 火箭軍彈雨轟台
3 marine war PLA aircraft-carriers and nuclear submarines attack Eastern Taiwan and paralyze 佳山基地 ( main air force base ) 航空母艦戰群, 核潛艇, 進攻台灣東部, 癱瘓佳山基地
4 economic warfare Cutting off marine traffic to Southern China sea, etc 截斷海上交通線
5 invasion of remote islands Invasion of Kinmen(金門),   Pratas,   Itu Aba Island / Taiping Island (太平島) 攻奪外島

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIrQ2krhTE   Next TV, 5-26-2020

The SUN, UK,  5-25-2020 (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11703654/china-deploys-aircraft-carriers-stoke-tensions-us-warning-new-cold-war/)
in the China's state-controlled Naval and Merchant Ships Magazine:
In around four minutes, Taiwan’s air power is badly damaged and those Taiwanese aircraft that have already taken off, will be shot down with S400 missiles.
"After nearly two hours … all anti-air defence bases are destroyed, and most of Taiwan’s warplanes are damaged. What’s awaiting them is the second round of attacks after dawn."
 

 

  US military   VS.   China military [ People's Liberation Army ]     

●   Forbes, 6-7-2020:  There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies.  If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle.  American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers ( brief )

     

●   L.A. Times, 6-9-2020:  The country’s focus on communications warfare, autonomous systems and hypersonic missiles could thwart a lumbering giant like the U.S. Navy.  War gamers at the Rand Corp. warned last year that the U.S. had “its ass handed to it” in battle simulations.   “The Chinese military has progressed very quickly —  and it might be a decade or two away, but it is certainly on the road to catching up with the U.S.”   (brief)

     

●  Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan.     Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).  

 

●   New York Times  5-24-2020:  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.

 

●   Voice of America, 6-4-2020:  US navy will win a war with Chinese navy at this moment...    ( https://www.voachinese.com/a/us-china-competition-us-military-response-20200603/5447599.html )

 

●   Foreign Policy 5-15-2020 Xi has resisted pressure from various constituencies, including retired military commanders, to conclude that time is no longer in China's favor and that Beijing's policy is a failure.

● 
 The Australian, 5-18-2020, The Times (UK): In 2030, American would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of 'eye-opening' war game carried out by the Pentagon.

 

●   CBS news (USA), 11-14-2018:  U.S. military might "struggle to win, or perhaps lose" war with China or Russia
       the National Defense Strategy Commission:  "It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia." ...

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan," the report warned. "Americans could face a decisive military defeat."   ( https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-military-might-struggle-to-win-or-perhaps-lose-war-with-china-or-russia-report-says/)

 

 

 

 

   Will US send troops to defend Taiwan ?

 

  FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        QUESTION: Will the U.S. back Taiwan should China go into Taiwan? 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

 The Interpreter ,  6-16-2020 : The United States sells Taiwan arms, but does not provide security guarantees.  

●  Chicago Global Affairs Council

        "Would you favor or oppose the use of US troops ?美國民意支持出兵嗎?

 

  2015 2018 2019
China invades Taiwan 中侵台 28 35 38
N. Korea invade S. Korea  北韓侵南韓 47 64 58
China initiates a military conflict w Japan over disputed islands
中日軍事衝突
33 41 43
Russia invades a NATO ally (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc) 45 54 54
 https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/report_ccs19_rejecting-retreat_20190909.pdf

The LOWY Institute ( think tank in Australia ), 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security. Already many in China’s party-state suspect that the US intends to promote Taiwan independence, ... The risk here is that U.S. policy encourages an overreaction from China, upsetting the cross-straits status quo or whatever remains of it, and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/taiwan-s-wildcard

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun and Singapore's Straits Times (4-24-2018) comment that China must not intimidate Taiwan, while the China-Taiwan military balance has tilted in favor of the Chinese side, a situation must not occur in which the U. S. and China deepen their antagonism over Taiwan.     Yomiuri Shimbun, Opinion, 6-22-2017 stated the US is the key to keep the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ("米国は台湾の防衛力強化を担っており、台湾海峡の平和と安定のカギを握る"。).    

●  Economist 5-28-2020:  a suggestion in American law that America might come to Taiwan's aid were the island to be attacked......  America should make clear that doing so would be extremely dangerous.  America's allies should echo that, loudly.  https://www.economist.com/china/2020/05/28/chinas-national-security-bill-for-hong-kong-is-an-attempt-to-terrify

  chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018, Missouri State University  professor D. Hickey's comment :  the U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.  

 

●  The Liberty Times, (自由時報) ,1-24-2020:  Agreements or treaties like <Taiwan Relations Act> (『台灣關係法』) have not clearly stated the U.S. has obligation or duty to send troops to defend Taiwan.

●  Modern Diplomacy (EU) 6-9-2020  https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/09/why-cpcs-rhetoric-of-uniting-taiwan-by-force-doesnt-make-strategic-sense-for-china/  :  Considering US involvement in COVID-19 effects, use of force  by the PLA towards Taiwan, within its comfort Zone, may not prompt Washington to declare war immediately.

●  Taiwan News, 6-9-2020, ref. to Forbes :   the longer Taiwan is able to fend off invading communist troops, the more likely it is that major powers such as the U.S. and Japan would come to Taiwan's aid, possibly turning the tide of the war. 

The Diplomat 6-8-2020:  Taiwan cannot be left isolated. The United States’ security commitment to Taiwan and a robust international coalition, willing collectively to resist Communist China’s authoritarianism, are essential if we are to help defend Hong Kong’s freedoms.

●  Maybe Taiwan won't fear military threat from China if the US definitely would come to the rescue once the reunification war breaks out. ( Financial Times  5-19-2020 : Taiwan fears uptick in military threat from China in wake of coronavirus epidemic...)

●  Washington Monthly, 3-11-2020:  After nearly twenty years of exhausting and pointless war in the Middle East and Afghanistan, it’s not wrong to ask whether the American public is ready to involve itself in yet another overseas conflict predicated on strategic reasoning that is largely irrelevant to the major challenges facing the United States today.

 ABC Radio National, Australia,  27 February 2020 :   In the US, both sides of politics have reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the Taiwanese military is well armed and prepared for any possible Chinese incursion.   How the wider international community would respond to cross-strait conflict remains unclear.

●  United Daily's editorial (1-4-2020, 5-22-2020) worried Taiwan as a chess piece at front-line to block China in American's containment chessboard may become a sacrifice-piece or cannon fodder.  

 

●  National Post (Canada), 5-15-2020: China and the U.S. ramp up military activity near Taiwan...

 

●  China Times, opinion, 5-9-2020: China and the US flexed their muscles frequently near Taiwan territory, in this April, US fighters approached Taiwan Strait surrounding airspace 13 times, particularly B-1B reached there 3 times.   Next TV news 5-8-2020: Chinese air force and fleets conducted a series of provocative, aggressive operations from Jan. 23 till April 22,  once traversed Taiwanese 'territory' (Taiwan Strait median line).

 

●   The China Times,  opinion, 4-21-2018: survey/poll shows only 18% American are on the side of defending Taiwan by US military  (僅18%美國人民支持美軍助台).

 

●   New York Times,  5-24-2020 :  China top Diplomat Says: US should not challenge China's red line on Chinese-claimed Taiwan.  Taiwan News 6-1-2020: Harvard University political science professor Graham Allison explained to VOA that the U.S. would then be forced to join the battle once Beijing's troops cross the Taiwan Strait, leading to catastrophic global warfare.

 

●   New York Post,  5-26-2020:   (China) lack of respect for the sovereignty of countries in the region, like Taiwan, the “risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea involving the United States and China could rise significantly in the next eighteen months,” the Council on Foreign Relations said in a report issued last week.

 

 

 

 arms deal

 

●  L.A. Times 5-20-2020 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-05-20/taiwan-president-calls-for-stability-in-china-relations), The Diplomat, 5-20-2020, The Straits Times, 5-20-2020  ( references )

         

          The U.S. is the island’s main source of military support against China’s military threats.  Since 2008, the United States has sold more than $24 billion in arms to Taiwan, including fighter aircraft, tanks, and missiles.
        The Diplomat said that while the U.S. remains far and away Taiwan’s biggest source of arms, other countries could be important partners as well.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), since 1950 Taiwan has exported arms from countries: Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States. 
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiwan-looking-to-diversify-its-defense-partnerships/
        However, China called the Taiwan issue “China’s internal affair” and opposes any form of official exchanges and military contacts between Taiwan and any country
.   Just in last week, Beijing urged Paris to cancel a new weapons contract it had signed with Taiwan, or risk damaging the Sino-French relationship.

 

●  Republic World, 5-25-2020:  China Orders US To Stop Arms Sales To Taiwan After 'brink Of Cold War' Warning.

 

●  Washington Post,  5-30-2020   The Trump administration last year agreed to sell new F-16 fighter jets worth $8 billion to Taiwan, the largest and most significant sale of weaponry to the island in decades.

 

 

●   United Daily (聯合報)  editorial/ 2020-06-06
       The biggest problem is shortage of budget 。
       In addition to Navy, Army's tank and artillery (戰車,火砲),Air force's Mirage jet and C-130,all need to be replaced or enhancing performance, which is far more than the budget can afford。

       three presidents Lee (李登輝後期)、Chen(陳水扁)、Tsai(蔡英文) kept squandering those "bonus for peace" and underestimating the demand of national defense.

       So called asymmetrical capabilities are just skin-deep or phony phrase ! (表面功夫)。

 

 

●   FoxNews,  6-1-2020  https://www.miragenews.com/secretary-pompeo-with-maria-bartiromo-of-fox-news-sunday-morning-futures/

 
        SECRETARY POMPEO: Maria, there is a long history there. You know the story. Each time I speak with my Chinese counterparts, we make clear the commitments that we’ve made to them that have been made as far back at the Reagan administration and that we stand by those commitments. The good news is the Chinese Communist Party has told me directly they will as well. We have every expectation they will live up to those commitments. 

 

        PS: What's the commitment ?

 
◆  U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982)  "817公報"
the United States of America recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China. 
The Chinese Government reiterates that the question of Taiwan is China’s internal affair. The Message to Compatriots in Taiwan issued by China on January 1, 1979 promulgated a fundamental policy of striving for peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Nine-Point Proposal put forward by China on September 30, 1981 represented a further major effort under this fundamental policy to strive for a peaceful solution to the Taiwan question.
 the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution. 
 
 

◆  Arms sales to Taiwan   NSC Declassification Review (EO 13526)   "白宮備忘錄" 1982

...
The US willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences.  It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of US foreign policy.
It is essential that the quantity and quality of the arms provided Taiwan be conditioned entirely on the threat posed by the PRC.   (brief) 
 

 

 

●  New York times,  11-4-2017: “(Taiwan) needs to resist a Chinese military attack for two weeks and wait for help from the United States or the international community,”  echoing a strategy that has been at the core of Taiwan’s defense doctrine for decades......Taiwan’s armed forces, by contrast (Chn), have fallen way behind, struggling to recruit enough soldiers and sailors — and to equip those they have.   A major obstacle is that countries that might sell it the most sophisticated weaponry are increasingly reluctant to do so for fear of provoking China, ... The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 commits the United States to defend the island’s sovereignty, providing “such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary” ... US latest arms sales " short of the major systems that could give Taiwan a real edge."  (Singapore's The Straits Times :

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-once-mighty-military-now-overshadowed-by-chinas  Taiwan's once-mighty military now overshadowed by China's   11-6-2017;  http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/xi-tells-trump-that-taiwan-is-the-most-important-issue-in-sino-us-ties  Taiwan is the most important issue in Sino-US ties, Xi tells Trump  11-9-2017 )

       

 

  Washington Post,    1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
       Can China really take over Taiwan?

           Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.”  ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China.  A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

 


      

 

     

  
pic. : No.1"Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-20-2020; 

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-20-2020

 

ps: National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

pic. : No.1 "Taiwan military" on Ecosia, Berlin Germany, 5-20-2020
 

ps:  Taiwan internet army , click for full details
  top rankings on Bing, Yahoo, etc

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Lycos, 5-20-2020; 
 

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Dogpile, 5-20-2020; 

 

 

 

pic. :  No.2 "Taiwan military" on Excite, 5-20-2020

 

 

 

    other information
  
 

  ●Annual Report to US Congress (2018), 8-17-2018
                Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2018
                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

            
       
    Much of Beijing’s defense budget is focused on developing the capability to unify Taiwan by force
 
            A new method was applied to make these tables below:

 

 


 The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence  “Open Hearing on China’s Worldwide Military Expansion.”, 5-17-2018

        (1) China's “infatuation with Taiwan” ?

        a visceral nationalistic design ...“if Taiwan survives as a democracy [it] undermines the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party”

      (2) USA curb China ?

        the US could soon be completely driven out of the Asia-Pacific region if Beijing is allowed to continue on its current course unopposed.

      (3) Congressional hearing recommended

       deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Asia, showing strong support for Taiwan, and exposing human rights abuses in China as immediate steps that could curb Beijing

●  Taiwan Public Opinion and National Security,  Dennis V. Hickey, Missouri State University   /   chinausfocus.com at May 04 , 2018
        The U.S. does not have an “iron-clad” commitment to defend Taiwan.

        According to a more reliable poll available, The Taiwan National Security Survey (TNSS), which is conducted by Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, under the auspices of the Program in Asian Security Studies at Duke University in 2018 and 2019 ,  36.9% plan to “wait and see, 16% percent plan to leave the country, 2.2 % will hide away and 1.8% will “choose to surrender. On the other hand, 6.2% will support the government’s decision, 4.9% will join the army to fight against the invasion, and 4.1% will resist the invasion. The good news is that only 0.1% will commit suicide. But the bad news is that a solid majority plans to “wait and see,” “leave the country,” “hide” or “choose to surrender.”

 

 

 

 

pic.: survey 2018

pic.: survey in 2019

 

  ●  Washington Post,    1-5-2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/01/05/can-china-really-take-over-taiwan/?utm_term=.e66214694331
       Can China really take over Taiwan?

         Xi commanded China’s military to become “battle ready.”  ...... threatening that relations with Taiwan will turn “grave” because Taiwan’s government refuses to acknowledge that the island is part of China.  A leading Chinese analyst predicts that China has accelerated its timetable to 2020 for taking over the island by military means......Taiwan needs to increase its defense spending considerably...“the outcome of the game [between China and Taiwan] is undecided".

 

    The US subcommittee hearing (4-17-2018) Rep. Ted Soho,  Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific: Seems likely Xi will force the issue (unification) in his life time.  ( He is the only figure who can accomplish China's so called reunification.  Unify Taiwan peacefully or otherwise he is the key part of this accomplishment, ......)

 ○○

  ●  The Heritage Foundation, The Index of U.S. Military Strength, 2017

         China’s provocative behavior has expanded to include militarization of islands that it has built in highly disputed international waters in the South China Sea. China has also adopted aggressive naval tactics to intimidate such neighboring countries as Japan and the Philippines... the 2017 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force  ...  certainly would be ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous major regional contingencies ... /  http://index.heritage.org/military/2017/assessments/

  ●  Why China Can't Conquer Taiwan in a War , 11-17-2017   Zachary Keck http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-china-cant-conquer-taiwan-war-23254
      A new study by Michael Beckley (Tufts University), published in the academic journal International Security argues that China’s neighbors could thwart Chinese military aggression through anti-access/area denial strategies with only minimal U.S. assistance. ...   if China was far more successful than the United States had been in those conflicts, Beijing’s ability to execute an amphibious invasion is still far from certain. For instance, Beckley notes that only ten percent of Taiwan’s coastlines are suitable for an amphibious landing, which would allow Taipei to concentrate its forces on a few key areas. Chinese forces trying to land would likely be severely outnumbered...

  ●  <The Chinese Invasion Threat> by Ian Eastonct., Oct. 3, 2017 :

       China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said.  ...China, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack. 

  ●  BBC , 12-3-2016   http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538
         The pivotal role of the US was most clearly shown in 1996, when China conducted provocative missile tests to try and influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election. In response, US President Bill Clinton ordered the biggest display of US military power in Asia since the Vietnam War, sending ships to the Taiwan Strait, and a clear message to Beijing.

  ●  国家政策研究基金会 NPF  National Policy Foundation in Taipei, Taiwan;  10-7-2017 CTN

      The peace of Taiwan Strait before 2025 depends US military forces (台海安全 仍繫於美軍是否介入...最大的不確定性仍是「美軍是否介入」,且在2025年之前,美軍相對中共仍有明顯優勢,與其說押注與否,不如說是因「美軍不可測」的因子無法排除。)  /      http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171007000342-260119

The Chinese Invasion Threat China has finalized a clandestine plan to invade Taiwan in 2020 by launching missile attacks, blocking the nation’s air and sea space, and carrying out amphibious landings, Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute research fellow Ian Easton said.

 

●  Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) raised doubts over the time frame Easton asserted, saying that he did not think it is very precise.

 

China, according to the book <The Chinese Invasion Threat>, would "almost certainly" fail in its full-scale invasion of Taiwan but its military appears driven to prepare and carry out such an attack. 

 

pic.: Headline of Apple Daily, Oct. 6, 2017

  http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/10/05/2003679744;   http://freebeacon.com/natiChina’s

 

 
  ●
US Annual Report to Congress, 2017

 

   

Annual Report to US Congress (2017):
Military and Security Developments Involving
the People’s Republic of China 2017
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF

 

 

China VS Taiwan

 
  Taiwan Strait military balance

  China VS Taiwan

 

 
https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2017_China_Military_Power_Report.PDF
 2016  Defense Budget Comparison (Adjusted for Inflation),  Billion (USD)
China (Official Budget)  $144.3
Russia (National Defense Budget)   $46.2
Japan   $47.2
India  $37.0
Republic of Korea  $32.8
Taiwan  $10.5

 

 

Apple daily, 11-28-2017: Chinese air crafts flying to first island chain include H-6K (轟 6K) bomber from Shaanxi, center of China.  Taiwan's interpreting China's military capacity should no longer be limited to only their coastal (Taiwan Strait) military air force.  (brief - author 林穎佑 faculty of int'l affairs graduate school,  National ChungCheng University)

   Apple Daily, 12-19-2017   head-page, focus  ; data from Taiwan's national defense gov.

 

pic. left: China military capacity VS Taiwan;   pic. right: Chinese air force did lots of "patrol circling" (flying around Taiwan and passing through 1st island chain ).

China military VS Taiwan military Chinese air force "patrol circling" around Taiwan
   

 Source: Apple Daily News, head-page and focus news, 12-19-2017

   ●     International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS,UK,  www.iiss.org), the military balance 2018 press statement - The annual assessment of global military capability and defence economics, 2-14-2018
 ●
In 2017 Beijing showcased more advanced military systems ... are challenging the global predominance of the United States and its allies ... https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military-s-balance

            China's modernisation of its armed forces is processing faster than many experts expected ...  (ref to Apple Daily, opinion, 2-21-2018, "共軍非必勝  國軍非必敗")

   ●  US Annual Report to Congress, 2016

                OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE Annual Report to Congress:
                Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

                https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2016%20China%20Military%20Power%20Report.pdf
 

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Naval Forces
China China Taiwan
Total East and South Sea Fleets Total
Aircraft Carriers 1 0 0
Destroyers 23 16 4
Frigates 52 40 22
Corvettes 23 14 1
Tank Landing Ships/ Amphibious Transport Dock 30 28 14
Medium Landing Ships 22 16 0
Diesel Attack Submarines 57 38 4
Nuclear Attack Submarines 5 2 0
Ballistic Missile Submarines 4 4 0
Coastal Patrol (Missile) 86 68 45

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Air Forces
China China Taiwan
Total Within range of Taiwan Total

 

Fighters 1,700 130 384
Bombers/Attack 400 200 0
Transport 475 150 19
Special Mission Aircraft 115 75 25

Taiwan Strait Military Balance in 2015, Ground Forces
China China Taiwan
Total Taiwan Strait Area Total
Personnel (Active) 1.25 million 400,000 130,000
Group Armies/Army Corps 18 8 3
Infantry Divisions 12 4 0
Infantry Brigades 23 7 5
Mechanized Infantry Divisions 7 4 0
Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Divisions 2 2 0
Mechanized Infantry Brigades 25 8 3
Armor Divisions 1 0 0
Armor Brigades 17 7 4
Amphibious Armor Brigades 1 1 0
Army Aviation Brigades and Regiments 11 6 3
Artillery Brigades 22 9 5
Airborne Divisions 3 3 0
Marine Brigades 2 2 2
Tanks 7,000 2,800 1,100
Artillery Pieces 8,000 3,900 1,600

 

   ●  New York times,  10-19-2017:  https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20171019/china-xi-jinping-party-congress/dual/

    Chinese president Xi delivered the line that won the loudest applause of his marathon speech: “We will never allow anyone, any organization, or any political party, at any time or in any form, to separate any part of Chinese territory from China.”
        Apple Daily, 10-20-2017,  "ShaoKang Zhao Fax" column:
        Only 800+ words (out of 32000+ words in total) in Xi's speech at the 19th Communist party congress mentioned Taiwan, Taiwan issue seems not so important to Xi JinPing.
        China Times Group's CTI TV Sisys world news, 10-21-2017 : expert analyzed and interpreted Xi's speech and his implies
―  it seems the timetable for unification is 2050. 

 


      

  
pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on US Bing, 5-17-2020

 

 

pic. : No.2 "Taiwan military" on Yahoo (奇摩), 5-17-2020

 

 

 

   

 

 

pic. left:  No.3 "Taiwan military" on Dogpile, 5-17-2020;   pic. right: Top ranking "Taiwan military" on Ecosia (Europe Germany) , 5-17-2020 
ps:
National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic

 

 

 


      

 

 

      

 

pic. left : No.4 "Taiwan military" on Bing, 5-16-2020;  pic. right: top "Taiwan military" on yahoo Taiwan, 5-13-2020


ps : National Review 5-13-2020 : The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: China Has Increased Military Pressure on Taiwan during Pandemic